FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/8/16

by Paul Swydan

March 8, 2016

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Paul Swydan:

9:01	Paul Swydan: We always have the sexy results, because THIS chat happens after dark.

9:01	Paul Swydan: OK, I’ll stop wasting time now.

9:01	Broak: Thoughts on a possible Josh Reddick extension? Seems like both sides are pretty serious.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I guess I’m pretty bearish on Reddick. He’s only played full seasons in 2 of the 4 years he’s been in Oakland.

9:02	Paul Swydan: He won’t be the worst signing ever, and obviously the A’s don’t have a ton of commitments, but I wouldn’t break the bank for him.

9:03	Ceej : How many players from 1 team is too many? I’m in a H2H dynasty and already have Rizzo, Bryant, and Schwarber but want to add Russell in my upcoming draft.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I think that’s one too many for sure. I try not to have more than 2 position players on the same team. I could make an exception with this situation for 3, but I definitely wouldn’t go to 4.

9:04	Ben: Would the Orioles not of been better if Davis left in free agency and they started to rebuild, or is Machado Gone by the time it would take to get good again?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I don’t think they would have been better off yet, and the Machado thing is a big reason why. It’s a moot point though – the owner wants to win now, and so that’s what Duquette and Co. are trying to do.

9:06	Mike: 18-team mixed 5×5 using OBP, pretty high inflation. Calhoun $12 or Moreland $3?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Moreland.

9:07	Paul Swydan: They have the same career OBP.

9:07	Drew Hutchinson: I single-handedly ruined many pitching staffs last year, but those who are a glutten-for-punishment look and see that I actually had an ERA of 2.91 and WHIP of 1.13 at home in 2015. With no velocity drop, might success this year result from just figuring things out on the road?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I doubt it is that simple, but I wouldn’t be opposed to taking him in the last couple of rounds.

9:08	Ben: Is Tulo an Allstar ever again?

9:09	Paul Swydan: He’s got his work cut out for him now that he’s got Correa, Bogaerts and Lindor to deal with, but I’ll say yes. At least once more.

9:09

Nick: Do you know any websites that give highlights for all games last night (throughout the regular season) in a easy to navigate central location. Much like how dtmts.com is for hockey highlights. I never really looked for highlights online before so am looking for recommendations for this coming april.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Uh, this little site called MLB.com does a fantastic job cutting video.

9:10	Jake M: What do you think more likely: the White Sox hitting and defense is too weak to overcome and they win about 77-80 games or the pitching and bullpen carry them, and they get improved offense and enough defense to win about 87-90 games and a WC Spot?

9:10	Paul Swydan: The former. I see them in the 77-80 range right now, but that doesn’t mean 87-90 is out of the question.

9:10	Zorak: Do you think Vince Velasquez makes the team out of spring training? Worth drafting as a dollar guy? Shallow bench so tough to draft most minors guys.

9:11	Paul Swydan: He’s worth drafting as a dollar guy, but I am not sure he will make the rotation out of spring training.

9:11	AKA22: Where do you stand on the scarcity question in valuing fantasy players? Would a C of similar stats be worth much more than a player at another position in a 2 C AL or NL Only league?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely. I try hard to find star players at middle infield and catcher, because the alternatives make me uneasy. That would especially be true of a two catcher league.

9:12	Stephen: Paul, for our keeper league, I typically wait until all keepers have been submitted before releasing our draft order. The top six picks are a lottery of the bottom six teams (12 team league). Do you think it’s a big deal if keepers are submitted after the draft order is released?

9:12	Paul Swydan: It shouldn’t be a big deal, no.

9:13	Zorak: Looking at dollar guys available in my league since I’ve got too much salary tied up in keepers. Is it worth drafting both Singleton and AJ Reed at a buck each?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think that’s a worthwhile gamble. Singleton is still young. If you can get them both that cheap, I say do it.

9:13	Yakety Sax: What sort of prospect could a season of Erick Aybar at $6 million (assume the Braves pick up part of his salary) realistically fetch from the Cards? 50 FV? Or is that too much? Do you think the Cards just roll with Diaz and Gyorko, or do they try and swing a deal for another SS?

9:14

Paul Swydan: Yeah, the Cards have no reason to give up anyone of value for Aybar. They can happily float Diaz and/or Gyorko, knowing that they are good enough to absorb Peralta’s loss while he’s out. Now, if we get to June, and Peralta’s timeline still is foggy, that might change. But I don’t expect the Cardinals to make a big trade before opening day.

9:14	Paul Swydan: It’s just not the Cardinal Way.

9:15

Vic: 12 Team NL only that starts 2 catchers 5 x 5. Can only keep 6 of the following (2016 salaries included). Do you agree with my 6? Or should I swap one or more out. Schwarber (8), B Hamilton (13) M Franco (16) AJ Ramos (6) Baez (8), Mesorasco (10)……..others; Inciarte (12), Quackenbush (6), Drury (2). Thanks.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I would probably keep Inciarte over Baez.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Given that Baez no longer has a clear window to playing time, I can’t see why he would cost $8 again this season.

9:16	Jake: Is David Peralta “this year’s AJ Pollock”?

9:16	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think Peralta is that good.

9:16	Radermecher: Was Jim Sundberg the most underrated catcher in AL history?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I would say it’s Bill Freehan, personally.

9:17	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1004315&position=C

9:17	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/appreciating-bill-freehan/

9:17	Murray: No question but wanted to say thanks for all the work you do. I just became a supporting member and I should have done that 3 years ago!! I hope to never make that mistake again and I will pledge to support you guys going forward. Thanks

9:17	Paul Swydan: Thanks Murray. But for the record, we didn’t have membership available three years ago, so don’t beat yourself up.

9:18	berezin: top 3 SP in 2016 in this group: Smyly, Rodon, Quintana, Odorizzi, Ventura and Teheran

9:18	Paul Swydan: Rodon, Quintana and one of Odorizzi/Smyly

9:19	darth_stout: I’d like the Cardinals to play Yadier Molina at SS. I’m also a Cubs fan.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Duly noted!

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yadier would probably win the Gold Glove.

9:19	A GM: Is Brock Holt potentially worth more WAR than he is given credit for because he would allow a team to use one less bench player?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Potentially, yes. But Holt’s defense is not pristine at every position, which is sort of where that falls apart. Also, he might not be needed in the Red Sox outfield this year.

9:20	Stephen: Seen Deadpool yet? Or the new House of Cards?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I don’t like Deadpool the character so I didn’t bother with the movie, and I generally don’t like political shows, so I’ve never watched House of Cards. So, no and no. Sorry!

9:21	Bob Dole: I have McCullers, Odorizzi, Pineda, Luis Severino and Carlos Rodon on my pitching staff. What are the chances one of them ends the season as a top 20 SP?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I’d say pretty decent. I have the most faith in Rodon and McCullers. It’s definitely a solid staff.

9:21	Owen: Would you reccomend starting an auction for Aledmys Diaz in an ottoneu FGPTS league? How much would you bid?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Yeah. I mean, it would depend on what my shortstop situation is. In my league, I have Bogaerts at $18 and Eduardo Escobar backing him up at $4. So I personally wouldn’t go more than $4 on Diaz, but if you need a shortstop, I could see going to $7.

9:22	David: Please rank: Marte, Pollock, Betts

9:23	Paul Swydan: Betts, Pollock, Marte

9:23	Derek: I’ve been asking every chat room I can find: give me some red flags on Mookie. I’m trying to target him in round 2 but I have a later pick. What would make me feel better if the guy before me takes him?

9:24

Paul Swydan: Well, he isn’t a stand out in any one category. He is like McCutchen in that respect – he derives his value from doing everything at an above average level, but he might not be top 5-10 in any one area. Also, he did show a tendency to run hot and cold last year, and it can be frustrating to keep plugging him in during one of those cold spells.

9:24	John: Schwarber struggled mightily against lefties last year. Today, Schwarber got two hits off Kershaw. Sure, Kershaw isn’t at anything close to full strength yet, but that has to be a good thing, right?

9:25	Paul Swydan: No, it really doesn’t. I didn’t watch this game, but Kershaw was probably just focusing on hitting specific spots, and couldn’t have cared less if guys were hitting him or not.

9:25	Luda: Is Will Smith the closer in Milwaukee? Where do you draw the line on potential closer keepers? Throw them back if not 100% sure or risk it?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Rylan Edwards wrote a great piece about this at THT a couple of weeks back called “Finding the Chacon Zone” – http://www.hardballtimes.com/finding-the-chacon-zone/

9:26	Paul Swydan: He’s actually going to be running this column all year at RotoGraphs.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Smith is probably in that Chacon Zone area, at least to start. I don’t draw the line that harshly in April, I like to cast a wide net. But as the season goes on, you need to get pickier.

9:26	Rotogramps: Proposed, and got fgWAR added to our weekly roto – which is an old school league running for 15+ years with original 5×5 categories. Will be very interesting, and odd to see the stat on the league scoreboards. Old schools baseball guys can change too. Round of applause please.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Here here!

9:27	Rocky Mountain High: Thoughts on buying Chad Bettis stock?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I’m not buying any Rockies SP stock until I see how their rotation is really going to flesh out. Seemingly lots of guys fighting for spots there.

9:27	The Cincinnati Kid: The Life of Pablo or untitled unmastered?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I’ve only listened to one each, so I need to spend more time with them. But on initial listen, untitled unmastered.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I’ve only listened to each one once, is what I meant.

9:28	Tony: 14 team, 7 keepers 5×5: Schwarber and C.Gomez for Betts or Arrieta for Betts. I have C.Davis, C.Carpenter,Lindor,Springer as my other keepers (also I was able to trade players/picks so my last pick is round 16 of 21 to be able to draft heavy in the top 200 players.)

9:29	Paul Swydan: That’s tough. I guess I would probably rather trade the pitcher instead of the two position players.

9:30	Murdoc: KBO/NPB players face barriers if they want to come to the MLB, but what about the other way around? Is there anything stopping a KBO/NPB team from throwing enough money at an American high school or college prospect to try and lure them away from the MLB?

9:31	Paul Swydan: That I’m not sure of, but I believe that KBO/NPB teams limit the number of Americans/foreigners who can play on each team, and so that makes it less likely that they would take a work-in-progress player like that.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Also, they don’t pay as well, so I don’t see why the American HS/college player would have a ton of incentive to go there. Unless he has family there or something of that nature.

9:32	AL-only Guy: My AL-only league auction is this weekend and I’m hoping you’ll share some guidance. Available options are McCann, Gomes and then a bunch of $1 guys. Do you resign yourself to the bottom feeders or is the smart play going after McCann? If the latter, how much do you drop for him?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I definitely want McCann or Gomes in that situation. How much I drop would be dependent on your salary cap and your available dollars, etc. I would need that context. Context is key!

9:33	Jake: Ottoneu points league: Gave up Lindor and Kela for Addison Russell, Pederson, and Hammels. I needed OF help bad, and I came out a couple bucks ahead. How did I do

9:33	Paul Swydan: I think you did great. Russell may be just as good as Lindor, and you got two other solid players in return. I wouldn’t worry too much about losing Kela.

9:33	Billy Beane: Thoughts on Pedro Alvarez signing in Baltimore? While the deal makes less sense from a real baseball perspective, I feel like Alvarez could hit 30 bombs in Baltimore. What say you?

9:34	Paul Swydan: 30 homers are definitely in play for Alvarez in Baltimore, though keep in mind he only went for 18 and 27 the last two seasons.

9:34	JBL: Favourite bounce-back candidates this year? Do VMart or Carlos Santana make the list?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I’m done predicting what Carlos Santana will do. That dude has burned me two straight seasons. NEVER. AGAIN.

9:35	Airp0w: Is the Jays minor leaguer who failed the physical in the potential Jay Bruce trade known? Shouldn’t it have been easy to find a replacement if he was one of the smaller parts?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I never heard the name. Also, let’s not pin the whole thing falling apart on one variable. Three-team trades are hard to pull off for a reason.

9:35	Brian McCann: 25 HR, 85 RBI an automatique for me in 2016 ?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. Within the range of likely outcomes? Yes. Automatic? No.

9:36	Carlos vs Carlos: best pitcher between Rodon and Martinez

9:36	Paul Swydan: Right now it’s Martinez, but by the end of the year they may be neck and neck.

9:36	Ted: Does Swihart continue to build on his great second half? I know there are issue with his defense, but is he likely to be the regular catcher and consolidate the offensive gains we saw last year?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I read that he is likely to be the opening day catcher, and I do think that he will continue to hit fairly well.

9:36	Bob: Jackie Bradley Jr. was the best hitter in the AL over the course of a month last season. Super sneaky MVP candidate this year?

9:37	Paul Swydan: No, just a hot month. Clint Barmes once hit over .400 for a month too. It happens.

9:37	Fred: Is there a consensus on how to split your pitching and hitting on your roster? 23 player roster, does 11/12 sound right?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I don’t think there is an optimal stance on this. If you end up having a bunch of stud position players who don’t need to be cycled in and out of the lineup, I can go fewer position players, and vice versa.

9:38

Which way might I set Sale?: I have a tough decision in my 12 team dynasty league, keep 15 each year no restrictions, 7milb. It’s our second season and I’m starting to think I should maybe trade Sale in fear of that inverted W he throws and the higher potential for TJ he carries. I have the roster space available to take on an extra player which could help my OF, my weakest spot. I can trade Sale right now for Strasberg + either Brantly, Gomez, Blackmon. Pros? Cons? and what might you do?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Well, you’re sure as hell not lowering your injury risk if you do Sale for Strasburg and Brantley/Gomez. So I’d just stick with Sale.

9:39	zach: Should I trade Rizzo/Buxton for Correa in a keep forever league? I also own Goldschmidt and Seager.

9:40	Paul Swydan: I would be very tempted to make that trade, yes.

9:40

Ben: Some journalists and others have suggested Travis Shaw could be a better MLB bat than MiLB bat? Thoughts on this? He seemed to have a swing tailored to Fenway last season, but that obviously comes with a small sample size. Is there something to be said psychologically about being in the Majors versus Minors and how that impacts performance/confidence?

9:41	Paul Swydan: There is, but I think this is mostly just a byproduct of the fact that the Red Sox have very few jobs available this spring, and the writers need something to talk about.

9:41	I love Milwaukee: Did you stretch today?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I did, thank you for asking!

9:42	Eternal Darkness Is Upon Us: What is your favorite Disney movie?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Are we doing Disney and Disney/Pixar, or just Disney? For just Disney, I have to stick with Aladdin, but that’s the Arab in me talking.

9:42	End of Days Beckons : What is your favorite flavor of slushie/slurpee?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I was never a big Slushie/Slurpee kid/guy, but I usually tended to pick red over blue.

9:43	The World Will Collapse Tomorrow: What song makes you the happiest when it comes on the radio?

9:44	Paul Swydan: That’s a great question. My standard answer is generally “Ignition Remix” by R. Kelly, but that song doesn’t make me as happy as it once did now that I know R. Kelly is more or less the scum of the earth.

9:44	Dave Cameron’s Fomer Barber: Is Nate Karns a keeper if you need Ks in an AL only league?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Are you really Dave’s old barber? If so, that’s awesome. It’s a lot closer to yes in AL only than in Mixed, but I still am not confident in that yes.

9:45	Stephen: Seen the new Game of Thrones trailer? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuH3tJPiP-U

9:45	Paul Swydan: No, I never really understood why I would waste time on a LoTR knock-off when I have LoTR on DVD. But that is an increasingly a minority opinion, it seems.

9:45	Ryan: Orioles, Diamondbacks, Royals, White Sox, Rangers–which team with playoff aspirations and a sub-500 projection will make the post-season?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Rangers. I am bullish on the Rangers!

9:46	jb: how early of a pick would you take kershaw in 5×5 roto

9:46	Paul Swydan: 3. The only players that HAVE to be drafted ahead of him are Trout and Harper. After that, I think the board is open to your strategic whims.

9:47	Billy Sims: I just can’t decide if Mesoraco is going to be okay this year. Thoughts?

9:48

Paul Swydan: I love me some Mesoraco – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-burying-of-devin-mesoraco/ – (god that was three years ago) but I am hesitant at the moment. I wouldn’t be in on him early or for too much money, especially in a 5×5 since he won’t get a lot of R or RBI given how badly Cincy sucks.

9:48	The Cincinnati Kid: I’ve got JD Martinez (Rd 9), Polanco (Rd 18), & Puig (Rd 24) in a LF-CF-RF league that escalates 1 round per year, assuming I can’t trade him, Martinez is the drop right? We can only play 2 DH spots

9:49	Paul Swydan: Yeah, Martinez would be the drop. It’s a fair round for him, but with inflation, he’ll cross the line from worth it to not worth it faster than the other two players.

9:49	Paul Swydan: You might try to trade Puig now though. If you land a monster deal…could be worth it.

9:49	Anon: Have Miller and Betances as keepers in a SV/HLD league. Chapman available in the draft. Do I try to recreate the Yankees three headed monster?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yeah. The fact that your league counts holds makes doing so an attractive option, because there will be plenty of nights when you’ll get 2 holds and a save out of the trio.

9:50	Scott: Nl only keeper. I have decent, young starting pitching but lack power and need to solidify the outfield. Does giolito and my second round pick make sense for Heyward and his seventh round pick?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yes, that is a good framework, though I would try to make it 3rd and 6th rounders, or 4th and 5th.

9:51	The Cincinnati Kid: What % chance is Trevor Story the SS for the Rockies on Opening Day? May 15th? July 1st?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Tough to say. I think the chances are higher in May than April, and July will depend on Reyes’ suspension. Unfortunately we’re in a holding pattern on Story. I would stay away in redraft leagues.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman ran over my cat: Is Verlander worth $10 in AL only (high inflation)

9:52	Paul Swydan: Jeff Zimmerman would never run over someone’s cat!

9:52	Paul Swydan: If the inflation is as high as you say, then yes.

9:52	Ben: When might hurt guys like Darvish and Devon Travis move to the 60-Day DL in my ottoneu league so I can make use of their roster spot?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Not until the team officially places them on said 60-day DL.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Travis isn’t on it yet, and probably won’t be until roster cutdown time.

9:54	Ryan: Scott Schebler: legitimate 20-20 threat?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Maybe, but I wouldn’t draft him as such.

9:54	Cake: I’ve heard of fantasy leagues with upwards of $1,000,000 entry peer year – whats the largest you have heard of/participated in?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I generally don’t pay attention to other leagues, but the largest I’ve participated in I think was $175. I am not trying to get rich off of fantasy sports.

9:55	Bob: I would say 5/70M for Reddick

9:56	Paul Swydan: I guess I just don’t see why you want to commit to five years of a player with multiple past injury issues. But again, the A’s don’t have a lot of long-term commitments, and may need to hitch their wagon to somebody.

9:56	Bones: Fantasy question. Got offer Bogaerts ($6) for Votto ($35) and Buxton (ML) in my 11-team, 5×5, with cap of $280. Should I take the deal or is Buxton’s potential too high.

9:57	Paul Swydan: No I would grab Bogaerts. Again, any Reds player in a 5×5 is a stay away for me, because they’re going to be terrible this year.

9:57	Ryan: Are you drafting Homer Bailey at all this year?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Noppppe.

9:57	BakedBean: good question about travis shaw!

9:58	Paul Swydan: We are very lucky to have great readers who ask great questions!

9:58	Ian: Should I take Betts, Abreu, Pollock or Scherzer in the second round of my fantasy draft? I am torn between Betts and Scherzer

9:59	Paul Swydan: I’d be tempted to take Scherzer. That division is uniquely bad, and he should put up some great numbers in it.

9:59	Dewey Evans: Since this seems to be Fantasy Week, can you explain to a non-believer the appeal of Fantasy? It seems both boring and hard, an unattractive combination. Plus I hate rooting for players who aren’t on my actual obsessed-since-boyhood local team.