FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/19/16

by Paul Swydan

April 19, 2016

9:03	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Let’s do this.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Sorry I’m late.

9:03	Chris: Is there any way to access old Baseruns data (2002-2014)? I’ve been asking Fangraphs in as many ways as possible, but I haven’t been able to find that data. I’m looking for it for a school project, and any help would be appreciated. Thanks Paul!

9:04	Paul Swydan: I have asked too! To no avail yet, but we’ll get it eventually.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:04	yolo: I got offered Felix/Starlin Castro/Cody Allen for Springer/Teheran in an deep OBP league. Both my pitching and my shortstop situation are trash, but my OF is deep. Worth taking?

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Seems like your team will be better, so take it

9:05	Paul Swydan: For sure. I don’t even like Teheran.

9:05	JASON: Should the Twins try Sano back at 3B? Sure, he might not be any good there, but he likely won’t be good anywhere. And, it gets Arcia’s bat in the lineup more often.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I certainly think so, but no one asked me.

9:06	Paul Swydan: And you’d think he’d be better at the position he grew up playing than one he started playing six months ago.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I think not. The Twins need him to be serviceable somewhere on the diamond and 3B is not the location.

9:06	Roger: Before the year started, what kind of odds could I have gotten that the Phillies rotation at this point in the season would have the most WAR of any rotation in the majors?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Very, very good odds. But as I noted back in February, this was never as bad a team as it seemed.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: 500-1, not sure. They weren’t going to be horrible by any means. I could see the Phillies contending in ’18

9:07	Ryan: Which matchup would you rather watch: Kershaw versus Bumgarner, or Thor versus Velasquez?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Probably Kershaw vs. Bumgarner, no offense to Syndergaard and Velsasquez.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Thor vs Vel, Bum will just take Kershaw deep twice and win

9:08	Mark: Is Maeda for real? What do you see coming from him the rest of the season? Thanks.

9:09	Paul Swydan: He’s good. He’s not this good. Hitters will adjust. But it’s definitely been nice to see.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s OK, seems like a number 3 starter

9:09	ryN: What side ya on: Abreu for Dee Gordon & Story

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Gordon and Story. I like Gordon more than Abreau straight up

9:10	Paul Swydan: Damn, that’s a good question. Gordon and Story might get the nod, just on positional scarcity.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think Jeff is right, it does come down to how valuable Gordon is in your league, because I’m still not sold on Story.

9:11

Trainman: i asked about Parks adjustment to MLB pitching in Dans Monday chat. Since then he has hit two impressive homers. From a fantasy prospective, which 1B do you see him comparing to? I’ve read Chris Carter as a potential fit. What do you guys think, and what do you see parks potential end stat line being?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I expect him to be better than Carter. I don’t have an overall component comp, but I expect him to be in that Napoli/Belt tier. Not elite, but can be elite at times.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Duda, but not sure if Park will get the walks

9:12	mitch_jackson: Is there a legitimate chance for Nolan Arenado to be the third best position player this year?

9:13	Paul Swydan: If he can keep the walk rate up, he’ll have a chance. But I’ll say no, I don’t see him being that good.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: A chance, 2% maybe.

9:14	Banana: How fast would a pitch need to be thrown to be literally unhittable?

9:14	Paul Swydan: That’s a FANTASTIC question. We should do a post on contact % by velocity.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Probably something like 103.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: 115 is my guess. Great video of a top Japanese player trying to hit at some insane velocity is worth a laugh

9:15	Karan: Really worried about the Yankees offense and SP. Should they consider trading from their relief corp for bats and SP once Chapman comes back?

9:16	Paul Swydan: No, they’ll be OK. It’s only a couple of weeks. Deep breath.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: No, they aren’t that bad, just a slow start

9:16	Karan: Any concern about Trout’s start to 2016? ISO, FB% Hard% are down and he has become pull happy (47% pull%). He should adjust right?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Yeah, he’ll be fine.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: The 186 mph fastball video has been taken down: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xgvYswhjog

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: No concerns yet and he will adjust. He has adjusted before

9:17	Steve: Ahhh I missed this chat. O/U 30.5 homers for Jose Abreu this year?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I will take the over.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Under, I just see him being more average, but haven’t looked into detail on his GB/FB mix

9:18	Steve: I know it’s April, but is there any reason Sano won’t hit 30+ home runs this season?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yes, the fact that he’s playing a new position, and as such faces a larger risk of getting injured.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: And it is hard to hit 30 HRs

9:20	Steve: Are you celebrating Taco Tuesday?

9:20	Paul Swydan: We sure did. Though sometimes we call it Freedom Friday.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, ran kids around to ball practices before chat.

9:21	Steve: Any worries about Blackmon coming back from a turf toe injury since a portion of his value is speed?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Definitely. Rockies probably should have traded him when they had the chance.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I would like to get his time to first before and after

9:22	Bored in the USA: What are the fundamental differences between pitches in the MLB & NPB? Movement, velocity? How can they be that different? We’re all human no??

9:23	Paul Swydan: My general understanding is that there is less velocity and more movement in the NPB. But yes, it can’t be that different, otherwise players like Ichiro and others never would have been able to play in the states.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: More downward movement because of difference in height for sure.

9:24	AT: Evening guys, thanks for the chat. If I can spare a bench slot without it being a big deal… Should I roster Trea Turner prior to his call up or just hold Jake Lamb?

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Turner. I think he could be a top 5 SS. He maybe one right now

9:25	Paul Swydan: If adding Turner means that you can keep him past this year, then go with him. If not, Lamb. I don’t think Turner has much value as long as Stephen Drew is on the Nats.

9:26	Murdoc: Do you think the MLB will ever stoop to the level of the NBA and feature jersey ads on a full time basis?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I doubt it. I think Spider-Man on the bases effectively killed that forever.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, everyone loves money.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Especially if the players get like half

9:27	Paul Swydan: Having said that, I don’t have a problem with it. It’s not an issue in soccer.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Yeah that’d be the key.

9:27	Danny Almonte: How much value does an innings-eater type pitcher (i.e. Jason Marquis) lose when it comes to the playoffs?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Well if they’re the number 4 or 5, basically all of their value, since they won’t hardly be needed to start.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Otherwise, it’d depend on the matchup.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends. I think they can be paired with another pitcher for 3 innings each for a start. Also, with no real long relievers, they can fill in if a starter blows up.

9:29	Danny Almonte: Pedro or Kershaw?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Pedro was more fun to watch, but you can’t go wrong with either.

9:30	Paul Swydan: If I can drop a dated reference, Pedro was Maverick, Kershaw is Ice Man.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw, I think he will be better longer, but those 2-3 years of peak Pedro were amazing

9:30	Danny Almonte: Thor’s fastball, Thor’s new slider, or Thor’s hammer (actual Mjolnir, not code for curveball)?

9:31	Paul Swydan: That sounds like a poll question!

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: That slider is insane.

9:32	Jim Lonborg: Argh, no Joe Kelly, looks bad maybe. No Eduardo for another month. Now what? Elias? Brian Johnson? Panic? I think my vote is for panic.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Elias or Owens. No need to panic – John Farrell has been panicking plenty for everyone.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Anyone has to be better than Kelly. BTW, I had Kelly as the 13th highest rated injury risk as a pitcher: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mash-report-41816-initial-2016-pain-values/

9:34	Ed in Iowa: Grades are turned in!! The semester’s over!! Cubs-Cardinals!! The After Dark Chat!! Exuberance and merriment abound!!!

9:35	Paul Swydan: Hey, congrats Ed! We’re pretty excited too.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea … Cubs-Cards

9:36	Ed in Iowa: Do we have any actual evidence that small-ish pitchers get hurt more than big dude pitchers? It seems like we are supposed to look at Pedro Martinez-sized guys and assume they are a bigger injury risk than Curt Schilling-sized guys, but do we actually know that?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Jeff wrote about small pitchers last year at THT, though I don’t remember if injuries was part of that piece.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: One sec, looking for my THT article from last year

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: It was in there

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: The break more, but come back quicker

9:37	Paul Swydan: http://www.hardballtimes.com/short-pitchers-still-getting-short-shrift/

9:37	Paul Swydan: Jeez, I guess that was two years ago. Wow.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: At the end of the article

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: One and a half

9:38	Duke: In a 30 team dynasty league with 40 man rosters, 180 minor leaguers per team, etc.. Super deep. You get it. I’m in a full rebuild and light years away from competing. Just offered my Gregerson for Matt Chapman, Yoan Lopez, Marco Gonzales, and a 2016 7th round draft pick (minors). Thoughts?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Turning Gregerson into anything of value seems like a win, but given that closers are usually super valuable in any league, you might want to survey your other leaguemates to see if they want ot beat that offer.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s OK. I am trying to move past Gonzales in my dynasty league, but the deal seems fine.

9:40	X: any reason you can think of for ian desmond taking a 2-1 fastball in the middle of the plate with 1 out and a runner on 3rd?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: No. He has straight turned into a very bad player.

9:41	Von Schloss: If SD could they’d trade Wil Myers straight up for Trea Turner or Joe Ross, wouldn’t they?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Yup.

9:42	Paul Swydan: It could end up being a historically bad trade for SD, and I say that as someone who hasn’t given up on Myers.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, yes they would

9:42	Rufus T. Firefly: Why don’t teams have every guy with a little speed bunt at Jon Lester?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Because he’s a pro athlete and would adjust eventually.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Also, bunting is super hard.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul

9:43	Johnny5Alive: stephenson? why burn a year to keep bringing him up for spot starts?

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will be full time at some point this year. They will play the service time game until then

9:43	Paul Swydan: Probably because they’re no longer worried about what he’ll do 6-7 years from now, if they ever were to begin with.

9:45

Stuafoo: To what extent to teams have to prove player injuries to the league? Sandoval injury probably not ideal for the sox since it makes him even harder to trade, but it does free up a spot on the roster. Or the whole degrom arm tenderness/sick kid thing. (I don’t mean to make light of either situation or cast any doubt on either party, these are just recent examples that got me thinking about this).

9:46	Paul Swydan: I’m pretty sure they don’t have to prove anything unless the MLBPA files a complaint. I’ve been wrong before though.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said, but they all have to send in injury details to help populated the league injury database which is just a couple years old

9:47

X: The shift has normally been used against left handed hitters who hit for power. Teams this year have more frequently used shifts against right handed hitters; even those who have more diverse batted ball profiles and I’ve noticed a lot of weaker contact base hits to the opposite field that would normally be outs. When looking at data that indicates a shift should be applied is there a possibility that that data fails to take into account a hitter’s ability to hit the ball to the opposite field (even if it means making only weak contact). More specifically for those hitters who have more even distribution btw fly balls, ground balls, and line drives? Many of these hitters have never had to make an adjustment to try and NOT hit ground balls to the left side. It seems that the data being used fails to take into account a hitter’s ability to make a conscious effort to go the other way. The question is bit convoluted so i hope i didn’t create any confusion as what I’m trying to get across.

9:48	Paul Swydan: No, I understand the question. I think the answer is that it’s still early. Also, teams starting shifting more against right-handed hitters last year. This isn’t that new.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I get it, but I think teams are shifting fringe players. The obvious ones are shifted with success (see Ortiz), but the success rate drops as more and more players are shifted. I think teams are living on the edge of to or not to shift some players.

9:50

Twinkies for lunch: I really cant see Perkins holding the closer job past the end of the season. He’s injury prone and with the Twins not likely contenders I’m sure another team might like him as a 7th or 8th inning guy. Jepsen is a journeyman so I doubt he’s the long term answer which leaves me thinking either Trevor May or a kid like Burdi. Who do you like?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I don’t like any of those options.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I think May is the best MLB option. Isn’t Reed ready yet (or did I miss him getting hurt or sucking)?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Looks like Reed can’t find the plate any more

9:52	Pesky’s pole (size doesnt matter: So now Rusney heads to Pawtucket and starts hitting and running like he was supposed to have done with the Red Sox. I’m thinking with just Brock Holt to beat out of a job he should still get a chance to prove he belongs in the bigs?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Yes, mostly since he hasn’t had a real chance yet to begin with.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Castillo is just not a good player and with be a nice 4th outfielder

9:54	Paul Swydan: I dunno, I think his defense is good enough for him to be a 2 WAR player, which is what the Sox will get from Holt/Young if they’re lucky. I think Farrell just doesn’t like him.

9:54	Rob2: Favorite ballplayer in the 60s? 70s? or 80s?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Bob Gibson,George Brett, George Brett

9:56	Paul Swydan: Well, I wasn’t alive in the 60s and barely in the 70s. For the 80s, it was Clemens, Boggs or Mike Greenwell, with Ellis Burks getting some down ballot votes, because my dad would always yell “ELLIS BABY!” whenever Ellis Burks did something good, and I liked it when he yelled that.

9:56	Paul Swydan: I suppose for the 60s I’d say Yaz, and the 70s I’d say Fred Lynn or Dwight Evans.

9:56	skip: If it’s wise to zig when everyone else zags, should we be buying Trevor Story?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I think there are still plenty of people buying Trevor Story. The bottom line is that he’s going to start all season at shortstop for the Rockies, and he has enough power to be a valuable fantasy play just for those two reasons alone. If he does anything else, bonus!

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I would wait a bit as his value drops. He has a near 50% K% over his last seven games before tonight. I was really high on Story coming into the season.

9:59	Paul Swydan: I wasn’t.

9:59	Ryan: Phillies or Reds as a more likely contender in 2018?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Oh definitely the Phillies.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Phillies, more money to fill in FA talent. And the Phillies have a few hitters in their system

9:59	g: have Kang coming off the dl soon, should I slot him in at SS (others are Desmond and Semien) or put him at 3b (streaming Lamb/Shaw/Villar types) Thx!