FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/5/16

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Big Joe Montferrant: So, the umps completely messed up that 8th inning in NY. Correa did not even run 1 step in the Baseline and was clearly in the way, and Valbuena was K’d on the 2-2 pitch (2 run single the next pitch). Why is runner interference not a reviewable play? and are you for or against automated K zone? Thanks

Paul Swydan: The running inside the baseline is something that bugs me, but guys know they can get away with it, so it’s on the umps. If the umps didn’t give them that leeway, this wouldn’t be an issue.

Paul Swydan: I honestly can’t say I’m for or against an automated strike zone. I can see both sides. Ultimately, you’d still need an umpire back there for out/safe calls at home though, so it’d be pretty awkward if he/she wasn’t doing anything most of the time.

Michael: After 3 years of telling us that Uehara’s warmup routine is so intense that it basically doesn’t matter whether he pitches once he’s been through it, is John Farrell going to think up a new excuse for pitching Kimbrell in all the non-save situations?

Paul Swydan: I’m as critical of Farrell as anyone. More critical, in fact. But I think we can chalk this one up to “it was Opening Day, and they just wanted to show off the new toy.” Also, Uehara and Kimbrel are different people.

Wham-o: Thoughts on Aaron Sanchez? Potential breakout starter or a better fit in the bullpen?

Paul Swydan: Can it be both? I think there’s a chance he could be a very good starter, but a better chance that he’s better in the bullpen. We’ll see, I gues.

Paul Swydan: guess

Bruce Springsteen : Does McCullers ever end up a number 1 or is he more a middle of the rotation guy?

Paul Swydan: I think he has number one stuff, but it’s way too early to make that call. Injuries will obviously play a huge role.

Sick Sandy: War wise, what do you think Syndergaard’s best season will be? Is it too far fetched for him to finish top 10 in Cy Young voting this year?

Paul Swydan: 7 or 8 seems doable. And no, he should be in the top 10 this year, I don’t think that’s far fetched at all.

Paul Swydan: Sorry, the wife wanted to know about the Sox game.

Lance Mannion: Hate to ask a specific fantasy question for myself but in a 13 team 5×5 are Kluber,Wainwright,T Ross, Richards,Wacha, Sheilds and McHugh an adequate their collective start has given me doubt

Paul Swydan: Don’t feel bad, we answer these all the time. And yes, in a 13 team league, that is more than adequate.

Sirras: So how ’bout Thor today? 9 Ks against KC is pretty nice

Paul Swydan: Yeah, pretty nice day for him. Think someone will have a piece on it tomorrow

CJ: Cespedes in CF today. Why?

Paul Swydan: Because Mets fans have to be kept on their toes?

Paul Swydan: No, it’s because the majority of plate appearances against Thor are going to end in a strikeout or a ground ball, so there’s less risk of playing Cespedes out there.

Murdoc: Bettis vs Miller is the pick, a Rockies’ pitcher that’s actually intriguing and to see Miller in his new digs.

Paul Swydan: This is in reference to the poll. I wouldn’t argue, though I’m biased by wanting to see how Bettis is going to do this year. Him being respectable is one of the few ways the Rockies can navigate a path to relevance.

Mike S.: The Dbacks must be kicking themselves for trading Incearte. Especially if they have to start the guy who wasn’t good enough to back him up (Bourn). Any chance they want to/can trade enough to bring back Incearte?

Paul Swydan: I’m going to say there’s no chance of that. But we do like Socrates Brito, so all hope is not lost.

Poopinyrsoup: If there was a draft for all mlb players with the current contracts, would you rather have the number 1 pick or number 2 and 15? On the one hand you can have trout, on the other you can have Harper, correa, or goldy and an ace.

Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t really have all of the info, do I? Are you saying if I take #1 that my second pick would be #31? Because 1/31 vs. 2/15 means I take 2/15.

Murdoc: O/U on Trevor Story puns in this chat?

Paul Swydan: I’d bet the under.

Murdoc: A question for each. Paul, what made you leave LA out of the playoffs in your predictions? Jeff, why is Wade Davis going to be a fantasy bust this year?

Paul Swydan: Well, it’s just me tonight. Jeff went to the Royals-Mets game. Don’t feel bad for him, he got to see them get their rings, and he got some good BBQ at his tailgate.

Paul Swydan: I left out LA because the NL has a lot of good teams, and I think that LA’s depth will be tested, is already being tested, and that they have a lot of variance, in that one of their best players is a rookie.

JeevesAsksYou: Trade Trevor Story and Brett Lawrie for Rougned?

Paul Swydan: I mean, to me that’s basically Story for Odor. So, sure. If you need the 2B.

Tom: Fun stat I learned today: the 2 pitchers with the lowest career WHIP? 1.) Uehara 2. Kimbrel.

Paul Swydan: Very cool.

???: Kluber for LAD’s J. De Leon, Verdugo, Bellinger, Wood and Sierra, who says no?

Paul Swydan: Pretty sure Cleveland, but I’m not really up on those prospects after De Leon. Sorry.

VanExcel: How many games would a team of 9 Jay Buhners win?

Paul Swydan: 100. He’s got a rocket for an arm!!!!

Guest: Streaming Kazmir — Good, bad, or ugly idea?

Paul Swydan: Good idea.

Rocky Mountain High: Please rank these COL pitchers: Chad Bettis, Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman. Do any of them have beyond #3 starter potential (at best)?

Paul Swydan: For 2016, I’ll say Gray, Bettis, Hoffman. Long term, flip Hoffman and Gray. They all can be better than a #3, but the Rockies don’t have a great track record, so all three are essentially guilty until proven innocent.

Ben: Trea turner or javier baez

Paul Swydan: Trea

A ‘Ruf’ Start: Do you think Darin Ruf has the potential to hit at 20-25 HR this year?

Paul Swydan: Yes, but even if he does, he’ll still probably be near replacement level.

The Royals and Diamondbacks: Now that opening day has passed, what is team is most likely to way out-perform (10-15 wins) their projected record?

Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Paul Swydan: Pittsburgh. I think they’re way better than an 83 win team.

Gest : How substantial is the splitter’s reputation of leading to injury?

Paul Swydan: One thing that Jeff Passan noted in his new book (you can read my review over at THT) is that basically every pitch has at one time or another been labeled public enemy #1. I don’t think the splitter is more or less guilty than the cutter, the slider or any other pitch.

Lenard: Thoughts on Carlos Carrasco for Corey Seager. I have Semien and Cesar Hernandez as SS options if I trade him in an OBP league. My top starters are Stroman, Iglesias, Walker, DeScla. I didn’t have a whole of draft picks this year. Seager could be kept, but Carrasco can not. I also have Trout and Bryant as long-term keepers.

Paul Swydan: I think you’re in good position to make that trade. I think Stroman and Iglesias are a good 1-2, but it’d be good to upgrade, and frankly, there’s no guarantee that Seager is good THIS year.

Trainman: Happy Thorsday! What a 2016 debut for Syndergaard. Is he a top 5 pitcher this year or am I being too giddy over one dominating start as a happy excitable Mets fan?

Paul Swydan: Probably both. I think top 10-15 is more reasonable, but he’s clearly very good.

Bryan CA: The Giants lineup seems to be underrated nationally while the starting rotation seems to be too highly thought of. The Giants have not been a pitching team since two World Series ago. True?

Paul Swydan: I’d say that’s mostly true.

Trainman: Hey guys appreciate these chats. I drafted Carlos Gomez in an AL only league, I spent $31 on him for the 25-25 upside in that park, plus the lineup is really good. I have a lot of bargains so I could overpay for Gomez, but do you think he can reach that 25-25 season with an .850 OPS or am I reaching way way too high? What are your personal projections for Gomez?

Paul Swydan: I think 25-25 is on the table for sure, but those marks will depend on how healthy he can stay.

Stenzy : Do the Giants end up having to trade for a SP at the deadline? Would they be able to pull it off without including a Williamson or an Arroyo? Susac trade value?

Paul Swydan: I don’t think they will, no. Or, at least, not a big-time starter. I think they are set in terms of pitchers for a playoff series, and while they might need a 4 or 5 to help them GET to the playoffs, they won’t need a substantial trade to land one.

Bryan CA: How does a team with no front office turnover like the Giants go from producing stud pitchers and dud hitters for so long to just the opposite now?

Paul Swydan: I think that they’re just good at player development, and the players they’re graduating now are just a reflection of their drafting style as time has progressed.

Going Going Kang: Bautista came within 3 feet of an Oppo dong. Is that like seeing a unicorn?

Paul Swydan: Huh. Yeah, I guess so. He did hit one last year….

Daniel: Hi, so people often cite that batting order doesn’t have much effect on a season perhaps two wins a year. Meanwhile, we often speak about sequencing having a large effect on teams out performing their BaseRuns and subsequent projections. Couldn’t then, sequencing play a large role within a lineup where for some teams the order can be worth a more substantial number of wins, Not that it would be in anyway predictable or repeatable. So are we then treating batting order too flippantly?

Paul Swydan: I think the main takeaway we’ve found is that batting order doesn’t matter for a game or a particular stretch of games. I think if it’s something on the magnitude of two wins per year it’d have to be something pronounced, like when the Nats hit Harper in the 6 hole for a whole season. That sort of thing is stupid and can cost a player 50-75 plate appearances a season.

Paul Swydan: That’s different than what we normally see. And when you produce different lineup simulations, they generally don’t amount to more than 5-6 runs per season.

Paul Swydan: Now, can those 5-6 runs be significant? You betcha.

Paul Swydan: As for the being flippant part, I think part of that is just our desire to seem like authorities. Things are – to me – much more enjoyable when we try not to be know it alls. And that’s coming from someone who has been frequently derided for being a know it all!

elric: You ever watch any anime, Paul?

Paul Swydan: Well, if you mean Miyazaki films like Spirited Away and Ponyo, then yes. If you mean other kinds of anime, then no.

Tony: Should I trade Donaldson for Betts and Longoria? I have Carpenter in OBP league, so Longoria would be depth. 14tms, 5×5(obp)

Paul Swydan: Well, I’m torn. If you’re not going to be playing Longoria, that sort of limits the value. I think that Donaldson for Betts is more or less a push though, so I think you should do it.

Ryan: Corey Dickerson has no need of this Coors Field you speak about

Paul Swydan: I absolutely don’t mind saying I told you so.

Cards Fan: Just subscribed to the newsletter; is there any way to get ‘back copies’ of what i missed? Would hate to have missed out on a piece from the ball in play series by Tony Blengino for example.

Paul Swydan: That’s something I need to look into. Will let you know.

Ed in Iowa: I don’t think I’ve ever seen a hitter have such extraordinary plate discipline while simultaneously swinging and missing at as many strikes as Kris Bryant. Have you guys ever seen a hitter like that before?

Paul Swydan: I was tempted to say Mark McGwire, but he didn’t strike out THAT much.

Paul Swydan: One sec

Paul Swydan: running a search

brad: I have listened to cistulli’s podcast 3 times now. Does he realize how funny he is?

Paul Swydan: I think deep down he does, but he would never admit as much publicly.

Paul Swydan: Here’s the list for Bryant plate discipline comps: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1901&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=38288&players=0

Paul Swydan: He’s basically a better version of Rob Deer and Russell Branyan.

Paul Swydan: Stanton is on there too.

Terrible Ted: I voted for Outkast because “bombs over baghdad” is almost a baseball reference

Paul Swydan: Hah. Almost.

Paul Swydan: I’m happy that the category with the most votes isn’t “I don’t know who any of these groups are.”

Trainman: Gotta be outkast for the second poll. Hey Yaaaaa!!!! Hey Yaaaaaa!!!!!

Big Joe Montferrant: in 5 years, who will be the best player in baseball?

Paul Swydan: Correa would be my guess, though it could still be Mike Trout or Bryce Harper.

Michael P: Why is everyone taking it as a given that the A’s will finish in last in the AL?

Paul Swydan: Well, because they more or less sat out the offseason, and they weren’t very good last year.

Paul Swydan: I don’t take it as a given though. I think the Angels could be worse than them. They’re basically a Trout injury from being a 60-win team.

Joso: 12 team 8 player AL only auction . I have Britton ad my only closer. Would you grab another closer or spend the money on another starter or hitting ? Closers will go more 10/15 or more

Paul Swydan: You probably need to have 2 closers. If you don’t want to spend the $, you could always try to go the speculation market and load up on setup guys.

brad: Pau, you’ve done a great job seeking and adding female writers on hbt. Do you know why there are no woman fantasy baseball writers?

Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t think that is true. I’m sure they are out there. We just have to do a better job of finding them. I know this is a point of emphasis for Eno.

dude: Should I continue watching Verlander’s no-hitter or the O.J. Simpson show season finale?

Paul Swydan: Well, they’ll probably re-run the finale at some point later tonight, so the no-hitter.

Paul Swydan: Although, it looks like Miami has 3 runs now, so maybe I should have checked that before answering the question. My bad!

bbf dj: is longo anything other than a league average/slightly above average player now? any hope he can return to 08-11/13 levels of play?

Paul Swydan: He’s been at least at 3.4 WAR in each of the past three years, so I think he’s definitely at least the slightly above average player. His ability to be better is almost entirely dependent on his power. I’m not especially bullish, but I would say there’s a chance.

Worried Fan: The Jays have 35 strikeouts currently, should I be concerned?

Paul Swydan: Nope.

Yordano: Corey dickerson a potential surprise this year?

Paul Swydan: He’s not going to be a surprise to me. 🙂

Tony: Ross and Stroman for Scherzer in a 20 team. Too much in such a deep league?

Paul Swydan: Yeah, probably. Assuming you mean Tyson Ross.

Kevin: OMG I joined a dynasty league and the team I inherited is awful and holy crap is the player universe enormous, and way bigger than I’m used to. I know who the top prospects are, but they’re all taken. Any general strategies for a first time dynasty guy taking over a poor team. Go for volume of prospects, sell all your pieces for a few elite ones and hope they hit? Quit b/c the team is so bad?

Paul Swydan: I would focus on the best prospects in A ball. Guys like Anderson Espinoza that are ranked in the 30s right now, but who have a good chance to be the guys in the top 15-25 next year. If the team is that bad, you can afford to be patient.

Tony: Most flagrant example I can think of:

Tony: In 2009 Leyland had a number of games where Clete Thomas hit 3rd and Magglio Ordonez was on the bench. The Tigers lost in Game 163. There’s an example where you can say that lineup construction really hurt a team.

Paul Swydan: So, this is an example of where we overreact to the name. Should Clete Thomas have been hitting 3rd? No. But was Ordonez on the bench that big of a deal? Also no. For the season, Thomas was actually better in less playing time because Ordonez was such a train wreck in the field: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2009&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=6&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Ryan: Owen Watson made mention of a fangraphs wiffleball game, Paul what value are you providing to the squad?

Paul Swydan: I usually get to pitch, because no one wants to see me running around.

Matt: What you thinking about Kang coming back? 2015 form?

Paul Swydan: Yup. ALL HAIL PRESIDENT KANG.

Matt: What did you think about A-Rod’s big secondary leads today. Al was trying to mess with Dallas…and Al’s 40!

Paul Swydan: I didn’t get to see this one live, but I think it was great to hear about. Don’t know that we should be assuming he’ll steal 20 this year, but it’s nice to see him using his smarts to mess with pitchers.

Paul Rocks: Story or Kang in an OBP league?

Paul Swydan: Kang

Terrible Ted: Sanchez pumping 97 in the bottom of the 7th. Cruising.

Paul Swydan: Reminder that this Rays team isn’t that hot offensively, and they’re playing in a bad park for offense and that it’s one game.

dude: Recognize recognize recognize (Ruff Ryders)

Paul Swydan: That was a LOX song. You know you couldn’t wait to hear LOX over Premier.

Russell: What happened to rap/hip hop groups? They seem to be dying out.

Paul Swydan: The dynamic seems to have shifted more to one-off collabos between solo artists and producers, which is more or less the same thing, just on a temporary basis. Not the same, but I’ll take it.

dude: I’m interested in playing otteneu next season. what are the differences/similarities to ESPN FB? Are there still trades? Is it always a keeper league?

Paul Swydan: First off, I haven’t played ESPN in ….. 15 years? So, not sure. But you don’t have to wait until next year to play Ottoneu. They usually have a page for orphaned teams. Tweet them at @ottoneu and you could get hooked up right now. There are most definitely always trades. As for keeper vs non keeper, I think it is always keeper.

Paul Swydan: But I’m not sure.

dude: No-hitter gone courtesy of Dee Gordon and a Stanton BOMB

Paul Swydan: Ah, thanks.

Kvn: Without Stanton hitting dingers, I honestly wouldn’t care if the whole Marlins organization sank back into the Atlantic Ocean.

Paul Swydan: Well, having Barry Bonds in the fold should make for some good stories this year.

Matt: What did you think of the turtles at the NYY game? They sure looked like they’ve never been in premium seats before!

Paul Swydan: I don’t have any specific comment on this other than to say that 99% of people have never been in premium seats before. I have because my bosses at the Rockies used to not use their seats behind home plate sometimes, and I we always geeked out when we got them.

80085: fg wiffleball? i wonder who brings the beer….

Paul Swydan: Come on. Eno literally runs a beer website, he always brings the beer.

Paul Swydan: Logan Forsythe went yard.

Matt: I got in this argument a with a couple of people regarding the Betances/Correa play. I wasn’t necessarily faulting Dellin for botching a tough play, but a big league ball player should know to throw through the runner, not around, right?

Paul Swydan: I mean, no matter how many times you’ve been taught to throw through the runner, human nature dictates that you’re going to try to throw around the player. No one wants to drill a defenseless runner in the back, even if he’s being a dick by running where he’s not supposed to.

dude: No looking at their stats. Random 1950/1960 player wars (not WARs)- Johnny Callison or Bill Skowron? If you look it up, Mike Trout will break both his legs and miss the next three seasons and Corey Kluber will have to have JT surgery tomorrow

Paul Swydan: Wow, pretty harsh. I guess I’ll take Callison.

Matt: Everyone loves knocking the Marlins. They seem like a decent team that – while playing against ATL/PHI so much – can potentially slip into the playoffs. Or do people just not trust ownership to make the necessary moves at mid-season?

Paul Swydan: Well, people definitely don’t trust them. But more to the point, in a season where there are clearly 7 very good teams, I don’t think the Marlins or Dbacks can SLIP into the playoffs. They’re going to have to win in the 90s, and I just don’t see them doing that. The Mets and Nationals get to beat up on the Braves and Phillies too.

Tim: With Polanco signing an extension does that mean Austin Meadows future is most likely not in Pittsburgh ?

Paul Swydan: I mean, he’s only 21 this year, and he only has 28 PA at Double-A. But also, I think there’s a good chance that he comes up in mid 2017, and becomes a large part of the team in one way or another and takes over when McCutchen is traded or leaves.

Paul Swydan: Or, the Pirates could use him to land the one big piece they need this season to really make a push. Luckily for them, they’ll have that option.

dude: To quote Kevin Spacey in Superman Returns:

dude: WROOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG

Paul Swydan: Ha. Superman Returns > Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice

Kvn: Wow Dae Ho Lee is… not athletic looking.

Paul Swydan: We can’t all look like Ichiro, you know.

Bender B Rodriguez: black star is a great shoutout, but OutKast wins without a doubt

Paul Swydan: Yeah. Plus, a new Black Star album would mean Kweli would have to go live in South Africa for a few months. I’m going to say that that’s probably not going to happen.

pj16: In a 5×5 with only 1 RP…Am I okay to punt saves category if my option for RP is Finnegan or Bassit?

Paul Swydan: Well, yeah, since Bassitt isn’t even a reliever right now.

Paul Swydan: OK guys, that is going to do it for me tonight. Thanks for hanging out, lot more people in here now that the season has started, so I apologize if I didn’t get to your question. Same time next week!