FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 5/23/17

10:21

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7:05/7:10 matchup?

COL (Marquez) vs. PHI (Eflin) (0% | 0 votes)

SF (Cueto) vs. CHC (Lester) (59.8% | 100 votes)

SEA (Bergman) vs. WAS (Ross) (1.1% | 2 votes)

KC (Duffy) vs. NYY (Montgomery) (7.7% | 13 votes)

MIN (Santana) vs. BAL (Bundy) (12.5% | 21 votes)

CLE (Carrasco) vs. CIN (Garrett) (8.9% | 15 votes)

LAA (Shoemaker) vs. TB (Cobb) (4.7% | 8 votes)

SD (Chacin) vs. NYM (Harvey) (4.1% | 7 votes)

TEX (Cashner) vs. BOS (Porcello) (0.5% | 1 vote)

Total Votes: 167

10:22

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7:30 or later matchup?

PIT (Glasnow) vs. ATL (Dickey) (2.5% | 4 votes)

TOR (Biagini) vs. MIL (Nelson) (4.4% | 7 votes)

DET (Zimmermann) vs. HOU (McCullers) (12.6% | 20 votes)

CHW (Covey) vs. ARI (Corbin) (0% | 0 votes)

MIA (Urena) vs. OAK (Hahn) (4.4% | 7 votes)

STL (Lynn) vs. LAD (Kershaw) (75.9% | 120 votes)

Total Votes: 158

4:07

Paul Swydan:

Of the 10 most popular MiLB players in the FG search bar this afternoon, who will have the best MLB career?

Sam Travis (1.4% | 3 votes)

Dinelson Lamet (0.4% | 1 vote)

Gleyber Torres (26.4% | 54 votes)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (21.5% | 44 votes)

Tim Tebow (15.1% | 31 votes)

Rhys Hoskins (4.4% | 9 votes)

Amed Rosario (11.7% | 24 votes)

Scott Kingery (0.4% | 1 vote)

Lewis Brinson (5.8% | 12 votes)

Rafael Devers (12.2% | 25 votes)

Total Votes: 204

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Red Sox going little league

9:01	ChiSox: Are the White Sox still on the right path? Should we expect more big moves after the draft?

9:01	Paul Swydan: They are indeed. The signing of Luis Robert helped, and I think we’l see more trades as the trade deadline approaches.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree. I think they made the right move holding onto RP before the trade deadline. Better return.

9:02	Kevin: Twins vs orioles game of night. But idk if its a 2-1 walkoff or a 12-3 Baltimore route

9:03	Paul Swydan: 2-1 walk-off looks like the closer call, as it is currently 2-0 in the seventh.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:03	Los: RoS rankings for Alonso, Hanley, and Pujols. Having trouble finding a suitable trade partner so should I hold tight with two of them on my bench or cut one for better roster flexibility elsewhere (12 teamer with 3 bench spots).

9:03	Paul Swydan: I think Hanley’s shoulder problem is a big issue. He may not have the best season.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure you’re going to find a taker for Pujols either.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: There has to be some trade available. Better than a straight cut.

9:04	LosJankees: If we’re still contenders we should trade for a controllable SP (Quintana/Archer). Would be a great statement in a year when BOS was expected to run away with the division that we take it away from them. Worth a couple prospects to get Baby Bombers playoff experience.

9:05	Paul Swydan: That would seem to be the strategy. We’ll see.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Prospects are always worth the playoffs but wait until trade deadline.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I think a Quintana or Archer will cost a lot more than “a couple” of prospects though.

9:05	ManBearPuig: Arrange these Aarons in order of the WAR they will produce in 2018 (least to greatest): Altherr, Hicks, Judge, and Nola.

9:06	Paul Swydan: What a great question.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Judge, Altherr, Nola, Hicks

9:06	Paul Swydan: My answer might be different tomorrow.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Hicks ….. Altherr , Nola, Judge

9:06	Paul Swydan: Oh, I’m sorry.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Reverse my group.

9:07	Paul Swydan: So, yeah, Jeff and I agree here.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Basically

9:07	BP12345: Manny Machado has struggled this year, despite improvements upon his BB% and Hard Contact % this season. The BABIP is low, so it’s only a matter of time before he starts raking, right?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I would think so, yes. I’m not super worried about him yet.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I think BABIP will be low. Losing speed. I think he is doing an early transition for a young player with speed. Probably related to surgeries.

9:08	Anal Hershiser: Sam Travis worth a flier in a keeper league?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea

9:09	Paul Swydan: I think so. Plan is he’ll start against lefties, but if he hits, he’ll soon be the everyday guy. Moreland hasn’t been very good since the first ~10 games of the season.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s in the majors. Better than most other prospects.

9:09	YKnotDisco?!: I have often heard that you can’t trust a man who doesn’t drink… I personally can’t trust a man who doesn’t disclose his musical preference. Let’s see if you are trustworthy Paul…

9:09	Paul Swydan: Hip-hop and R&B.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Disco is/was cool too, though.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: He just said Paul

9:10	Paul Swydan: lol

9:10	Oddball Herrera: What is good in life? To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the Dinelson Lametations of their women. (yes, this makes little to no sense, I just wanted to work a Conan quote into this chat if possible)

9:10	Paul Swydan: Noted!

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Great quote

9:11

Halp: What’a going on with the Tigers starters? It seems like everyone aside from Michael Fulmer has been giving up way more walks and being damaged with xBHs. I am still relatively new to watching baseball and don’t have much knowledge on other team’s starters, but the Tigers broadcast have been praising lately about how their pitchers record the highest velocities in their last few pitches while Norris, JV, and Fulmer has thrown multiple games with over 100 pitches several times (even a few past 110). If these guys really are saving their stamina throughout most of the game to go past throwing 100 pitches in their starts, is getting 2-3 more outs for a starter worth risking weaker performance? And is this supposedly normal for other team’s starters as well?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Tonight’s long question! Yeesh. Let me read this thing.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I blame their dumpster fire for a bullpen. They just don’t trust it (for good reason).

9:13	Paul Swydan: The Tigers SPs are definitely giving up too many walks – 8th most. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&…

9:13	Paul Swydan: However, like Jeff said, they have to overextend themselves because their bullpen is not great.

9:13

iamyourlager: Hey Paul! Thanks for your chat as always. I have a few non-flyball revoultionaries who have been killing it on my fantasy team in Kevin Pillar, Nomar Mazara, and Josh Bell whom are all succeeding despite low average exit velocities. What are your brief thoughts on their sustainability going forward?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I LOVEEEE Josh Bell. Pillar I like as a player, but not really as a hitter. Mazara is in between. I liked him a lot last year, but the league seemed to figure him out in the second half.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I think too much is being put into EV w/o context.

9:14	Paul Swydan: He is hitting for more power this year, which is good to see.

9:15	Theo: Ryan Schimpf to the Red Sox for two 10-30 prospects?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Schimpf isn’t good enough to command that kind of return, and I don’t see why the Padres want to trade a guy under multiple years of control like that.

9:15	Paul Swydan: They need more Schimpf’s, not fewer.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t see it.

9:15	IK21: Piscotty or Keon Broxton ROS in a redraft 12 team roto? Thanks

9:16	Paul Swydan: This is a ceiling (Broxton) vs. reliability (Piscotty) play. I’ll take Broxton.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Really comes down to needing speed (Broxton) or Power (Piscotty). Both will kill your AVG

9:17	John: So in general, barring any extra “baggage”, 500 hrs, 3000 ks, 300 wins, 3000 hits, etc get you into the hof. Is there such a threshold for stolen bases? If so what is it? In particular, if Billy Hamilton steals 1500 bags in his career, does he at least make the ballot?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I don’t think there is a commonly accepted threshold for SBs because no one has really gotten into the Hall JUST for their SBs. But I’ll go on record as saying that Hamilton won’t get anywhere near 1,500. That’d be 96 more than Rickey Henderson. That’s ludicrous. Sorry.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s tough to not make the ballot with ~10 seasons playing. But I don’t think there is a number. Raines took forever to get in.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Rickey had 3 years with 100+ SBs. Hamilton hasn’t even made it to 60 yet.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul went to ludicrous speed

9:19	Larping: Is it just me or is Trea Turner’s spray chart…abnormal? It looks like every liner he’s hitting goes straight to outfielders. Almost no gap shots at all it looks like

9:19	Paul Swydan: That could be a sign that he’s ready to break out. They’ll find the gaps eventually.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Let me look

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Just found an error on our site.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: As Paul said, positive regression should be coming

9:21	Dickie Thon’s Rage: hypothetical situation: Let’s say MLB teams can carry 18 pitchers and every team does. Every pitcher pitches (1) inning every other game. Do league-wide ERA and WHIP go down? up? injuries? Just trying to extrapolate a “relief” driven paradigm to it’s logical end-sum conclusion.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think ERA and WHIP would be relatively similar. It’s tempting to say that it would go down because guys could air it out more, but I think there would be fewer guys capable of 81 games like that.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: It will likely drop but the talent level for 18 pitchers needs to found for each team. I like this idea

9:23	Paul Swydan: For instance, only 3 pitchers reached 80 games last year — Brad Hand, Zach Duke, and Addison Reed. Of the three, only Hand averaged more than an inning per appearance.

9:23	Zack Cozart: Hear ye, hear ye, am I a true 1.000 OPS or am I a master of smoke and mirrors?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Neither? I don’t think it’s all smoke and mirrors, but he also probably isn’t THIS good.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably somewhere in between.

9:24	Hannah Hochevar: Wondering about Xander and his barrel-less-ness. Think X Boogie turns it up as the temp rises (as promised) or is he going Boggs on us?

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Huh?

9:25	Paul Swydan: He has a .506 SLG in May. I realize it’s tempting to say he’s a singles hitter now because he has zero homers, but there are 2 other kinds of extra-base hits.

9:25

Matt Harvey: I get it everyone is sick of me. Especially those who are asked questions about me every 10 minutes. I might as well have a debilitating disease instead of just control issues. That’s all it is though right? If I told you when I hit the DL that it’d take a while for my control to come back you’d be like, “yeah sounds about right,” …. right?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Nah dude, I think you’re broken. Sorry.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Overhyped and just not elite pitcher anymore.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: brb

9:27	Roman: Jonny Cueto is trash.

9:28	Paul Swydan: He certainly hasn’t had his best season, but he’s been pretty good so far tonight. 5 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K. The 3 homers hurts obviously, but if the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, … shrug emoju.

9:28	Paul Swydan: emoji

9:29	JK: When will more people know how good Miguel Sano is?

9:29	Paul Swydan: When he makes the All-Star team?

9:29	…: Will Jon Lester ever hit a home run?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: maybe not but some how Colon did

9:30	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no.

9:30	Paul Swydan: He’s 12-for-209 in his career. TBH, I’m surprised he has 4 doubles.

9:30	JK: What’s the main stat you look at when looking at relievers? FIP? K-BB%? WPA?

9:31	Paul Swydan: K%, BB% and K-BB%, yeah.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: K-BB, and GB% (must be extreme)

9:31	Paul Swydan: WPA is great, but it’s not predictive. It’s a story stat.

9:32

El Tiant: Hey Paul. What’s up w JBJ? I know you don’t have a chrystal ball, but how do you see him playing rest of year. I remember he carried Boston for 6 to 8 weeks last year then became as cold as he was hot for the remainder. Next, what’s you feeling on Colorado’s Gray who is due to be back in about 3 weeks? Finally. I need SP’s in my 16 team redraft. If I aim for Gray should I offer JBJ, Trey Mancini, or David Peralta?

9:32	Paul Swydan: 1. I still like JBJ. Farrell needs to stop benching him against lefties.

9:32	Paul Swydan: 2. I still really like Jon Gray.

9:33	Paul Swydan: 3. I’d try to part with Mancini, though I doubt he gets you Jon Gray.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: JBJ will just have ups and downs. Production is BABIP centered. Jon Gray better than all three IMO

9:33	JK: If you’re the Dbacks, would you trade Greinke at the TDL?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Hell no, the Dbacks — as I wrote a couple of weeks ago, and Dave wrote today — are one of the best teams in baseball.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends if they can find a taker for the contract and where they are in the standings

9:34	Paul Swydan: If anything, they should be adding pieces.

9:34	ZACH: SOMEONE TALK TO ME ABOUT MICHAEL CONFORTO

9:34	Paul Swydan: MICHAEL CONFORTO IS VERY GOOD AT BASEBALL AND THE METS WERE FOOLISH TO EVER DICK AROUND WITH HIS PLAYING TIME.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: He plays for the Mets

9:35	Murdoc: True or false, the Rockies will eventually fade because of their dependence on young starters and lack of depth behind them?

9:36	Paul Swydan: False. They actually have more starter depth than it seems. They don’t really have room for Jeff Hoffman right now, and that is with Jon Gray still on the DL. And they’ve had most of their success this season without Gray, and he’s their best pitcher.

9:37	Paul Swydan: The middle relief needs to be addressed, but that’s the easiest thing to address in-season.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: False, I think they had some pieces come together rather quickly. The MLB club makes some head scratching moves but their scouting and development has been outstanding.

9:38	Hugh: Hello, Paul. How many games does a MLB team needs in order to get pass by the “its too early” threshold?

9:38	Paul Swydan: We are in that zone now. By mid-June we’re more or less past it, though there are some teams who will fade hard after even mid-June. It’s a long season.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I am almost an All-Star game guy. Some crazy scheduling can happen.

9:39	David Wiers: I don’t have a question, I’m just hopping in to say I miss you guys <3

9:39	Paul Swydan: Miss you too, David!

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: How did you get out of the locker?

9:40	Johnny5Alive: How come every says hi Paul. Why doesn’t anyone respect Jeff?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Bender let you out didn’t he?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, Johnny5, Jeff is obviously smarter than I am.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Everyone loves Paul

9:41	Paul Swydan: lol

9:41	Dexter: Imagine if Mets had traded Conforto for McCutchen this offseason…

9:41	Paul Swydan: Was that a legit rumor? I don’t remember that one. But … yeah.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Just if …..

9:42	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: I think that last poll is probably the best one you’ve ever posted! So what’s the Phillies plan with Rhys? Joseph won’t net anyone in a trade other than an Org guy.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Oh, high praise, coming from Sterling! I don’t see why they can’t keep both players on the roster.

9:43	Paul Swydan: They can start Hoskins and keep Joseph around as a backup/pinch hitter.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea

9:43	Bruce Bocce: Manny Machado is making me sad. Just watched him dog a pop foul and drop it, then not hustle on a weak grounder. So many pop ups. What’s to be done?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I don’t think anything can be done, other than maybe a pep talk or something to that effect.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is taking it safe until free agency

9:44	Don: If you were Rick Hahn, would you save anybody in the bullpen or would you deal everyone off to a hot start (i.e. Kahnle and Swarzak)

9:45	Paul Swydan: Trade them all.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Send them all

9:45	Guest: Some of the role players for the White Sox have been better than expected, including Leury Garcia. His K rate has been cut in half and his z-contact is nearly 10%. Is it possible this is his true talent level?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure and tough to tell.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Projection systems still aren’t buying it. But the uptick in Contact% is giving me pause.

9:47	Hugh: Paul and Jeff, which MLB team is the biggest surprise and disappointment so far as of this date (i.e., May 23, 2017)? And which team(s) needs substantial improvement for the rest of this month and June in order become competitive?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Surprise is the Rockies and Dbacks for sure. Disappointment is the Mariners and Marlins.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Surprise: Yankees for sure, disappointed in Mets. Mets for improvement team.

9:48	Ethan: At this point, is it fair to say that the Rockies won the Dickerson for McGee and Marquez trade?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think that has been relatively even thus far.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea on so far. It will depend on Marquez’s production

9:49	Paul Swydan: Initially, I liked the Dickerson side a lot more, and may like it more long-term, but he had a rough 2016 which has evened things out.

9:50	Red Sox: Travis up, Devers up sooner than later, and Price maybe back for his next turn….. all is well soon?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: As long as no one else gets hurt

9:50	Paul Swydan: We’ll see. Price being back doesn’t mean Price is back, and I’m also not convinced that Devers will be up before the trade deadline.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Also what Jeff said.

9:50	Johnny5Alive: Mets have a six run lead. Terry is using his 4th reliever. Any wonder why their bullpen is awful?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Oh, no, no one wonders. They have a manager and a general manager who are both past their expiration dates. They need to completely overhaul their management team.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s tougher to tell the worse run franchises now but the Mets continue to make a case.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul

9:52	AZ Closer: Once Rodney implodes.. what are the chances Barrett comes up and eventually closes? Or is It Archie?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think Bradley will probably get a crack at it before any prospect does, but admittedly I have not closely followed that situation.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is Bradley but I could see them make some trades if still competitive.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that’s also a good point.

9:53	wOBAMA: So, uh, should we expect anything of Lamet?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Loads and loads of bad puns.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree. MLB.com will have some horrible ones

9:55	Paul Swydan: I will be interested to see his walk rate. He walked 8.2% of batters at Triple-A last season, and 12% this year. And your walk rate is generally higher in the pros than in the minors.

9:55	Carrot Juice: Is Byron Buxton the most over-hyped prospect in history? His ceiling looks more like Denard Span than Trout.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Sadly, Jurickson Profar also is in that conversation, as I’m sure are some Yankees and Red Sox prospects.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Brandon Wood says Hi

9:56	Steve: Are you more willing to overpay in a trade knowing that you have to make a move in order to free up a roster spot. Ex. Kluber should be back soon, so I would have to drop Nate Karns

9:57	Paul Swydan: Sort of. Usually I’ll just drop Karns and hope that it doesn’t come back to bite me.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Oh yea, I am in the same boat in my AL-only league. Also, I like leagues with tradable FAAB. Just say you will take some FAAB as trade before releasing the player.

9:58	Jt: Gleyber Torres up to triple A, eta for his major league debut

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: It really depends on the Yankees needs and place in the standings. If he can help, he will play

9:58	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say August. They don’t have much urgency, but if he keeps hitting this well, they’ll have to do something.

9:59	OddBall Herrera: Dustin Ackley is pretty high up for failed prosects. I remember reading at the time “We’re not sure what type of hitter he’ll become, but one thing we know for sure is he’ll hit”. He was billed as a can’t miss.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yup, that’s a good one.

9:59	Paul Swydan: At least Buxton is really good defensively.