FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/7/13

by Paul Swydan

May 7, 2013

6:26	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! There’s a 95% chance that I’m flying solo tonight. Chris is definitely not going to be here, and Jeff probably won’t be. So you’re stuck with me and all of my nerdly glory! Get your questions in, and I’ll be back at 9 p.m. ET to tackle as many of them as I possibly can.

6:37	Paul Swydan: Jeff wants to know – what ballparks do you believe are affected the most by a specific wind direction? Let me know your thoughts and I’ll post them.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Alright, let’s do this thing!

9:01	Comment From Stuck in a Slump No one seems to be talking about Scott Feldman, but the guy went 7 innings and limited the Rangers to 3 base runners. In his last four starts he has a 1.63 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP with a 7.5 K/9 rate. Is this for real?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Well, he’s not good enough to consistently post a 1.63 ERA and 0.80 WHIP, but he is an underrated play, and the K/9 could definitely stand up. I like him as a 4th/5th starter in mixed leagues, and even better in NL only leagues.

9:03	Comment From shirley did clay cheat? Is Eckersley just a wee bit too protective of him?

9:04

Paul Swydan: Well, I make it a point not to watch the pre and post on NESN. I haven’t learned anything watching any pre or postgame show in a very long time. They’re simply not designed with me in mind.

Having said that, yes, I would imagine that Eck is probably too protective of Buchholz, but that’s essentially his job.

9:04	Paul Swydan: As for whether or not he cheated? Meh. It’s awesome when Eddie Harris does it, but not when someone does it in real life? I don’t think he did cheat, but if he did, I also don’t care.

9:05	Comment From RationalSportsFan Question for Paul only (presumably)…Danny Brown vs Childish Gambino…go!

9:05	Paul Swydan: Danny Brown. I’m actually going to see him on Thursday at the Middle East in Boston. Can’t wait.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Which is not to say I don’t like Childish Gambino/Donald Glover. I do. He’s just not on Brown’s level.

9:06	Comment From Thirteen Do you believe in Kyle Seager’s power yet? Or do you still think he’s a .140-.160 ISO guy?

9:06	Paul Swydan: It’s not that I don’t believe in his power, it’s just that I don’t believe in his home park.

9:06	Comment From Thirteen So, uh, how ’bout Michael Saunders’ O-Swing%? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9981&position=OF#platediscipline

9:08

Paul Swydan: The funny thing is that he’s not making better contact. You would think that when your swing percentage drops so dramatically, that the pitches you DO swing at must be better and easier to hit. We’re not seeing that so far, but I do like the positive changes in both his BB% and K%, so we’ll still chalk it up in the win column for now.

9:08	Comment From Soxfan Ready for Tazmania?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I am! Although I will just stick to calling him Tazawa. That is an unique enough name. At least in this country.

9:09	Comment From MO Santiago or Webster ROS in roto??

9:09	Paul Swydan: I am a big believer in Webster, but I’m not sure that we can call his entry into the rotation permanent. So, for now, Santiago.

9:09	Comment From JB Most affected by wind has to be Rangers Ballpark. The jetstream takes long fly balls and turns them into home runs when the wind is blowing.

9:10	Paul Swydan: For Jeff. If you guys have other opinion on wind direction at ballparks, please chime in. Jeff is working on something neat.

9:10	Comment From Jaack Paul, if this chat were the LA Dodgers, you would be AJ Ellis. Even if what you do is unspectacular, you still manage to always show up. You should put that on your resume.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Perfect attendance, just like Lisa Simpson!

9:11	Comment From JY Is it time to give up on Middlebrook & Hosmer?(sell low). I know middlebrook`s low babip and their LD% is as good as last year. But worried about K%,SwgStk%.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I’m giving Middlebrooks one more month. But I think I am now in the minority in that respect.

9:12	Paul Swydan: As for Hosmer, yeah, I am no longer bullish.

9:12	Comment From Jaack Marlins Park is affected by wind a lot, but not in the way you would expect: The tumbleweeds blowing around in the stands distract the hitters.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Very funny.

9:12	Comment From Ned Colletti Why do I insist on keeping Luis Cruz on a team that badly needs a deep bench with so many injured players?

9:12	Paul Swydan: At this point, what choice do they have? Another guy bites the dust for them every day. Today it was Hairston who landed on the DL.

9:12	Comment From 14E When are we going to see Jurickson Profar in Arlington?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Not as soon as we should.

9:13	Comment From bbcal Is Josh Reddick going to lose ABs once Crisp gets back?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think this is going to be a very interesting case to watch. You would think that Melvin remembers how valuable Reddick was last year and keep trotting him out there, but at a certain point, something’s gotta give.

9:13	Comment From Cal Guy Who gets sent to the pen when Garza returns?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Wouldn’t it be nice if Edwin Jackson needed a couple of weeks on the DL? He seems out of sorts still. Seriously though, my vote would be for Wood.

9:14	Comment From Cal Guy Does Fujikawa close when he is back?

9:15	Paul Swydan: It seems like they are going to tacitly let Gregg have it until he blows it. So, Fujikawa may need to wait a week or two.

9:15

Comment From Rob Bruno
Is Trevor Rosenthal ever going to close for StL this season? He’s racking up a decent amount of k’s but i’m starting to lose patience. I need k’s and I’m also afraid that either Lester or Bucholz is going to lose it at some point, so i’d like to add a starter. Is Phil Hughes worth it?

9:16

Paul Swydan: If I’m reading this right, you’re asking if you should drop Rosenthal for Hughes? If your situation is waiting until Buchholz or Lester regress, then no, I wouldn’t drop Rosenthal just yet. The reason is simply that a guy like Hughes should always be on the waiver wire. He’s no one special.

9:16	Comment From Mike Moore and Hanley Ram for Millone and Pujols?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Even with Hanley out, I’d rather have the Moore/Hanley side. Which says a lot about how far Pujols has fallen.

9:17	Comment From AJT Would you guys(or just Paul I guess) say that JJ Hoover’s performance(the HRs given up) is just an anomaly, and it will return to normal?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Anytime a guy on Cincy, who is a flyball pitcher, starts giving up homers you have to be concerned. But Hoover has a history of being able to keep the ball in the ballpark, so I’m not sounding the alarm just yet.

9:18	Comment From TIm Who becomes the closer once Street injures himself. Gregerson, Boxberger or other?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I think it will be Gregerson to start, but that Boxberger will eventually get some save chances as well. Hopefully this will be one of the random years where Street stays healthy, though.

9:19	Comment From Sgt. Pepper I got offered Pujols and Kipnis for Napoli and Marte and naturally I accepted. The league vetoed. I’m mad but I can’t say I blame them. Thoughts?

9:21

Paul Swydan: I am not big on Kipnis and am wary of Pujols at this point, so I don’t even think the deal is that lopsided, especially if Marte can maintain a BABIP in the .360’s.

Based on previous reputations, I guess I can’t blame them, but I am not a fan of vetoing trades unless collusion is afoot.

9:21	Comment From Ben Matt Harvey or Jeff Samardzija ROS?

9:21	Paul Swydan: This is a fantastic question. Let’s put it to a poll, shall we?

9:22	Comment From Tylersnotes Which will happen first: keppinger or josh Hamilton ibb

9:22	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Hamilton, just for the off-chance that he garners an IBB.

9:22	Comment From Guest HARVEY HARVEY HARVEY

9:23	Paul Swydan: So when I tell you that you and your girlfriend wasn’t anything personal, you know that I’m telling the truth.

9:23	Comment From shelly Brett Anderson or Ryan Dempster ROS?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Dempster. I doubt Anderson stays healthy. Rather have the guy I can count on to give me innings.

9:24	Comment From Screwed McDuck If you were in an extremely deep, ultra realistic dynaty league, and had a choice between Harang, Saunders, Pelfrey, and Buehrle as back end rotation filler, who would you choose?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Saunders or Pelfrey, if you believe in his comeback.

9:24	Comment From zarzums Am I starting Lincecum tonight?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Yeah, probably. Phillies have averaged 3 runs a game over their last 4.

9:25	Comment From Wes Better shot at the hall of fame: Votto or Harper

9:25	Paul Swydan: Harper.

9:25	Comment From Ryan Halladay a hall-of-famer if he never pitches again?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I think so, yes. 10 straight seasons with a FIP- of 81 or better. That’s tough to do.

9:26	Comment From Sgt. Pepper JA Happ. Holy shit. I saw it life and it was scary. I hope he’s OK.

9:26	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Happ looked like he was talking as they carted him off the field, so hopefully this isn’t another Macarthy

9:27	Paul Swydan: Let’s hope. I haven’t seen the play yet, but I see a few of these comments in the queue.

9:27	Comment From Bernard Someone in my league has already given up on BJ. No brainer to spend my waiver priority on him right?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I’d grab him, yes.

9:27	Comment From Jon I have altuve, harper, and castro on my team; why is Soriano leading my team in SBs?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Because … damn, I had something for this!

9:28	Comment From RationalSportsFan Do you and your kid(s) have identical tattoos like Sterling Archer and the wee baby Seamus?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Speaking of Archer…..no. But I appreciate the question!

9:28	Comment From Tom Is Brett Lawrie already an elite defender at 3b?

9:31	Paul Swydan: He is an above average defender for sure.

9:31	Comment From Sgt. Pepper After what Harvey did tonight how is that even poll worthy?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Because it’s May and Harvey is still a young’n. Trying to keep expectations in line.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Also, because the White Sox couldn’t hit the broad side of Adam Dunn’s posterior at this point, so it’s not exactly a stern test.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Ooof, that Happ injury was not pretty.

9:33	Comment From TIm Alright, when are people gonna start talking about Carlos Gomez? The power from last year looks for real. The average obviously will go down, but what is a realistic line we can expect from him this year? Is he a top 10 OF right now? Top 20?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I’ll say top 20. Not top 10. Still doesn’t have the track record. I think .285/.330/.520 is realistic. I don’t think he’s going to hit like this all year, obviously.

9:34	Comment From Archer I have a Corner Conundrum – Adrian and ARam manning 1B and 3B with Arenado, Morales, and Moustakas for the 1B/3B. Morales the one to drop in a 12-team H2H (OBP) format?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Him or Moose, yes.

9:35	Comment From Tylersnotes Angels have pujols, Hamilton, Wilson, weaver and Aybar signed through 2016. Odds that the Aybar contract could be the most valuable of those 5?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I’ll say 15%. Hamilton isn’t this bad.

9:35	Comment From zack Were you at all surprised that the Cardinals were so quick to call up Carlos Martinez?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I was very surprised, but we seem to be seeing some more aggressive call ups this season.

9:37	Paul Swydan: BTW, if Zach McAllister isn’t picked up in your league, you might want to find a spot for him. 7 2/3 shutout innings tonight against Oakland. Not too shabby!

9:37	Comment From Nolan What ever happened to the As and the potential move to San Jose?

9:37	Paul Swydan: It’s still up in the air. Hopefully there is a resolution soon. I would prefer to see them stay in Oakland, but I also don’t envy their ballpark situation. I guess we’ll see.

9:37	Comment From RationalSportsFan So, you’re clearly an Archer fan. Are you a fan of other two favorite F/X shows, Louie and Wilfred?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I feel like I would watch Louie if I had more time. I’m currently 4-5 episodes behind on The Americans, 2 behind on Mad Men and 1 behind on Parks & Rec. And Suburgatory and Smash (my wife’s shows) fell by the wayside this year altogether. Need. More. Time.

9:39	Comment From zack A healthy Troy Tulowitzki is awesome

9:39	Paul Swydan: Yes, he is. Unfortunately he’s only available for a limited time.

9:39	Comment From Jon How sold should we be on anibal sanchez by now? Would trading bruce for him be fair deal?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Very sold. I really like Anibal. I feel like the way Bruce is going, you would need to get more than just him.

9:40	Comment From Rob When an injury like Happ’s happens, should play be stopped immediately? Not only did two runs come in to score during the play and Jennings ended up on third, but the medical staff had to wait for the runners to stop advancing before they were able to get to Happ.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Well, the medical staff probably should have just run out anyway. But no, I don’t know how you logistically stop play. Everyone gets one base? Unfortunately, I think you need to just play it out.

9:42	Comment From Jaack If you’re behind on TV shows right now, you probably need to catch up in the next couple of weeks before we get the influx of new Arrested Development.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Meh. I think there was a reason the show only lasted two seasons. It got old for me quick.

9:42

Comment From Owen
In an ottoneu league, you have David Wright for $33 and Nolan Arenado for $6. You will not be keeping Wright next year, obviously. You are a strong contender. Deal Wright for an upgrade at MI in order to start Arenado? Currently you have Kipnis, Desmond, and Simmons at 2B, SS, and MI.

9:43	Paul Swydan: A) Not sure how you’re going to be able to upgrade too much more in your middle infield than what you have. B) Arenado is no sure thing. He’s had 7 good games. Plenty of guys have had such a stretch. C) I see no reason why you wouldn’t keep a $33 Wright, even with Arenado in tow.

9:44	Comment From zarzums What should I do with Matt Moore? I’m seeing a lot of people recommend trading him but isn’t his upside/youth still worth holding on to? Should I pull the trigger on a trade for Goldschmidt (I have good pitching but a black hole at CI) in a keeper league?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I like the idea of getting Goldschmidt, since he is also young and highly keepable. But I do really like Moore.

9:44	Comment From zack Do you see any reason for optimism regarding Josh Hamilton or has he permanently turned into Delmon Young?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I have a really hard time believing his power has vanished, especially when his batted ball rates (aside from HR/FB) are all essentially the same as the past few years.

9:45	Comment From RationalSportsFan Arrested last for three glorious seasons, sir.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Well then perhaps I gave up after two…

9:46	Comment From Misrahi What is a good system of raises for players kept in a 10 team dynasty mixed point league? First year of the league in this form.

9:46	Paul Swydan: One sec, looking up the rule in the one I’m in.

9:48

Paul Swydan: OK, here it is:

1. Owners must sign the newly acquired players to 1, 2, 3 or 4 year contracts.

2. A player’s salary increments during the length of his contract are based on his previous year’s salary.
a. A player earning between $100,000 and $300,000 will receive a 100% raise.
b. A player earning between $400,000 and $700,000 will receive a 70% raise.
c. A player earning between $800,000 and $2MM will receive a 40% raise.
d. A player earning between $2.1MM and $5MM will receive a 20% raise.
e. A player earning between $5.1MM and $10MM will receive a 10% raise.
f. A player earning over $10MM will receive no raise.

3. All raises shall be rounded off to the next lowest $100,000.
Example: a player is auctioned for $300,000 and signed for 4 years.
Year 1 he earns $300,000.
Year 2 he earns $600,000 (a 100% raise per 2.a. above or $300,000).
Year 3 he earns $1.0MM (a 70% raise per 2.b. above or $420,000 rounded down to $400,000).
Year 4 he earns $1.5MM (a 50% raise per 2.c. above or $500,000).

9:48	Paul Swydan: Now, keep in mind that this league is a league with a $100 million salary cap.

9:49	Paul Swydan: That’s fairly complicated, obviously, but you can probably streamline that a little bit and have a handy system.

9:49	Comment From Gouis Wow you just shat on AD an didn’t know how many seasons there are? Good luck avoiding the mob on your way home

9:49	Paul Swydan: I ain’t scrred of them!

9:49	Comment From Zach G Why is there no CI spot in ottoneu?

9:50	Paul Swydan: As someone who traded for Pablo Sandoval when Aramis Ramirez got hurt, and also has Edwin Encarnacion and Mitch Moreland (and Adam LaRoche, I guess), I feel your pain. Give us a CI spot!!!!

9:50	Comment From Tylersnotes In deep dynasty, trade ozuna for beachy? H2h pioints with weekly lineups, and pitching is slightly more valuable

9:50	Paul Swydan: Absolutely.

9:50	Comment From Steve Z Will Marte go 25/40 this year?

9:51	Paul Swydan: He certainly COULD. But I’m not going to drop that kind of expectation on him. His Steamer/ZiPS updates have him at like 16/32 for the season. He would have to significantly outperform that to hit 25/40. It could happen, but I’ll say no for now.

9:51	Comment From eightyraw How do you make room for Profar? Kinsler likely isn’t ready to move off 2B. And we know that Ron Washington thinks playing 1B is “incredibly hard.”

9:52	Paul Swydan: Here is what I do, and I have said this a few times. 2B – Profar RF – Kinsler DH – Cruz Berkman can split time with Cruz and Moreland. Both of them are gone after the season, and Cruz has not been an asset defensively the past couple of seasons.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I would rather see Profar play SS, obviously, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards in Texas.

9:53	Comment From Gila Monster Sell high on Adam Jones? What could I fetch in return to provide better production in a OBP league?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Not much. I’d hold onto Adam Jones. He always starts hot, and if you sell now in the right deal you could probably get some value. But I would simply hold on to him. If you look to deal him though, obviously try to get a guy with a more established high OBP.

9:54	Comment From zack Or they could trade Profar for Oscar Taveras. It will obviously never happen, but it would be one of the coolest trades of all time.

9:55	Paul Swydan: It’s not happening. Ever. That is not a good enough value for Texas. If St. Louis wants that trade to happen, they’re going to need to kick in Joe Kelly and one of Miller/Wacha/Martinez/Rosenthal, to say the least.

9:55	Comment From Zach G What is your strategy with relievers in ottoneu? It’s a 4×4 league (K, ERA, HR/9, WHIP). Would you go with 7 starters and 5 relievers?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I have 8 SPs (9 if you count Allen Webster) and 7 relievers. I like to have extra because pitchers get hurt more frequently. For instance, I haven’t started Vogelsong yet, and I have only started Morrow once, but they’re a heck of a backup plan if I need them.

9:58	Paul Swydan: On the RP side, Hanrahan has been hurt, and Balfour not incredibly effective. So having Robbie Ross as a backup plan has worked out well.

9:58	Comment From Sgt, Pepper Profar for Tavares won’t happen because the cost to reputation is higher if you trade for a bust than if you just keep one. Not that I think either of those guys will bust

9:59

Paul Swydan: No, it will never happen because the gap between them is large. Profar simply has far more value as a shortstop than Taveras does as a right fielder, and that is even more true in the specific situation of St. Louis, since they haven’t produced a quality shortstop in a decade, and probably won’t be producing one anytime soon.

9:59	Comment From Sgt, Pepper “Matt Harvey’s Game Score tonight was 97. Since 1916, there have been only 40 outings of nine innings or fewer with a higher Game Score.”-Jeff Passan

9:59	Paul Swydan: Nice. But it’s still a poor hitting White Sox team.