FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 6/13/17

10:36

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7 pm ET game?

ATL (Dickey) vs. WAS (Ross) (4.0% | 5 votes)

COL (Chatwood) vs. PIT (Cole) (4.0% | 5 votes)

TB (Faria) vs. TOR (Estrada) (5.6% | 7 votes)

ARI (Greinke) vs. DET (Farmer) (8.0% | 10 votes)

CHC (Lester) vs. NYM (Wheeler) (12.0% | 15 votes)

LAD (Kershaw) vs. CLE (Bauer) (62.0% | 77 votes)

OAK (Cotton) vs. MIA (Urena) (1.6% | 2 votes)

PHI (Lively) vs. BOS (Price) (2.4% | 3 votes)

Total Votes: 124

10:38

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 8 pm ET or later game?

BAL (Asher) vs. CHW (Holland) (0.8% | 1 vote)

SEA (Bergman) vs. MIN (Gibson) (3.4% | 4 votes)

TEX (Martinez) vs. HOU (Peacock) (31.0% | 36 votes)

MIL (Mystery SP) vs. STL (Gonzales) (20.6% | 24 votes)

NYY (Sabathia) vs. LAA (Ramirez) (32.7% | 38 votes)

CIN (Feldman) vs. SD (Richard) (0.8% | 1 vote)

KC (Vargas) vs. SF (Blach) (10.3% | 12 votes)

Total Votes: 116

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: hey

9:02	ChiSox: Astros have quite the prospect bounty. Do they need to get anything at the trade deadline?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably at least one more starting pitcher

9:04	Paul Swydan: They probably don’t NEED anything, but one more SP, a better option / another good option at 1B/LF would be beneficial.

9:04	ChiSox: Top 3 draft winners/losers?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Sorry friend, I paid zero attention past the top 4 picks, and I really only have a good knowledge base on Greene.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Eric and Chris (and others) have more draft info than you could possibly want, I would point your compass toward them.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea here. Probably whoever got the earliest picks.

9:06	ChiSox: Is Kahnle more valuable than Robertson?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I would say that on track record, no, but if teams are ready to buy this year’s version as the real Kahnle, then yes. He’s been pretty amazing this season.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Possibly but before spending too much on him, teams will like to see him throw this way for another year.

9:07	Paul: Sano ROS (OBP)? Top 20, 50, or 100? Same with Lamb. Thanks!

9:07	Paul Swydan: Somewhere between 20 and 50. Can we say 30? Lamb is further back, but probably top 100.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Using his ROS projection, he would be around #75. Sounds right for someone with a 36% K%

9:09	Crazy Aunt Marie : So…that Aaron Judge kid is pretty good. Over/under 50 home runs?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Under

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’ll take the under. On the depth charts, we have him at 43, and I think him beating that by 8 is probably a stretch.

9:10

Moltar: At the start of June I was thinking “way to go Moltar, your team has dodged the injury bullet so far. Other than Freeman, no big pieces have gone down.” Welp, now I’ve lost Freeman’s replacement in Chris Davis, Segura, Keuchel, McCullers, and now Fulmer is having his start pushed back and Conforto hasn’t suited up all week. I have juuuust enough flexibility to slide Desmond in to 1B, but now my whole bench is injured players. With only 3 DL slots, what’s the best way to manage your lineup?

9:11	Paul Swydan: First, feel fortunate you have the extra DL slot. Most leagues only have 2. Second, I think the way you probably do it is to keep the pitchers on your bench and find DL replacements for the hitter. More rate stats for pitchers than hitters.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Also, you should probably stop talking to yourself. 🙂

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I was looking up Chris Davis. Crap, I lost another player in my Tout Wars team.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Sad face emoji

9:12	El Chupacabra: Amed Rosario and Ian Happ for Clint Frazier and Anderson Espinoza in an 8 team dynasty. Who wins?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think the Rosario/Happ side wins. Espinoza hasn’t even thrown a pitch yet this season.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Take the two hitters

9:13	Andrea’s Fault: Want to shake up my 12 team, points so everything counts, can freeze 7 each year forever league. Considering trading my Miggy and Arrieta for his Conforto and deGrom. Am I crazy?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I don’t think you’re crazy no, but I’d try to get back a pitcher that’s not on the Mets. Too much crazy in Metstown these days.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: No …. but I think you could get more than Conforto for Miggy.

9:15	Jake: Should I expect Miguel Cabrera to break out pretty soon? It doesn’t so much look like he’s getting much worse rather than getting some bad luck. Seems ridiculous for someone with a 46% hard hit rate and no pop ups to have only a 110 wRC+

9:16	Paul Swydan: Well, his average exit velocity is declining. So that’s an issue. But I do have a hard time believing that it all falls apart this season.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s fine but he seems to be aging and isn’t getting any doubles because of his legs.

9:17	CamdenWarehouse: Do you do anything with the best matchup results at the end of the season or are they just for fun each chat?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Just for fun!

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Their fun?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I probably could do something with them, but I doubt it would be all that instructive.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Quiet Jeff.

9:18	Aaron: Any chance the Angels ever win a championship around Trout? What’s the lead domino that must fall before that really gains momentum and they put together a real team (and farm system)?

9:18	Paul Swydan: There’s always a chance, but they’ll need a couple of players to have a Judge-like breakout.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Scioscia(sp?) and his meddling have to go.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Yeah that’d be great.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I think you actually spelled it right, btw.

9:20	Lids: How do all these draft picks post photos with their new team’s hats!?!? Do their agents have a bunch on hand? Do they floor it to the nearest Lids? It’s like these kids have monogrammed team underwear 30 seconds after getting picked.

9:21	Paul Swydan: There’s this new program the kids are using called Photoshop. And by kids, I mean MLB. I’m sure there is a coordinated effort by the league to get these kids pics with their new team hat on.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Most kids probably have an idea of where they are going, at least the ones in the first couple rounds.

9:21	Paul Swydan: But sure, I imagine some of them just go to Lids or wherever and buy a few hats in advance. I know I would, and just return the rest.

9:21	Taylors Mother: I’m swimming with OF in start 3 OF pts keeper lg. Of Schwarbs, Conforto, Haniger, Santana-which is most expendable? Trades are rare in this league. Would it be worth offering any of them for Godley?

9:22	Paul Swydan: It’d be worth offering all of them for Godley, though certainly you should be able to do better than Godley. Conforto and Haniger bear watching for the next couple of weeks.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Conforto because he’s maybe hurt/maybe the Mets are screwing around again, and Haniger because he’s just coming back after missing a bunch of time.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on the Santana but Scharbs is the only one I’d keep

9:23	Paul Swydan: I dunno, I really like Domingo Santana, and he’s been on fire.

9:24	Rob: Can Tom Murphy take over the catcher position in Colorado?

9:25	Paul Swydan: He can, but the best arrangement is probably a job share with Wolters. Also, how long it will take Murphy to get back into the mix depends on how the team feels about Hanigan. I think Hanigan is past his expiration date, but pitchers seem to love him.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: It might be a while, Wolters hasn’t horrible and Murphy has been out.

9:26	HappyFunBall: So long as the Nats continue to run out their Choose-Your-Own-Adventure bullpen every one of their games is must see TV, just to see how they’ll bomb it that day.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I mean, yeah, if you really love disaster movies.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: They’re impersonating the Tigers of years past.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: brb

9:27	Terence : Which is a bigger problem : Astros starting rotation or Nationals bullpen?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Nationals bullpen. Not even close.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Astros SPs rank 7th in WAR. Nationals RPs rank 29th.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Even if you don’t like WAR, that’s a huge difference.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Nats bullpen

9:28	Trent: I’m already sick of the fawning over Aaron Judge. Am I in for a long 15+ years of baseball coverage?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Well, let’s be conservative and say 5+ years. Who knows if he’ll be a Yankee for life.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Jeter will steal the headlines at some point

9:29	Paul Swydan: Yeah, once he finds a partner to buy the Marlins. I still hope he goes in on it with A-Rod.

9:30	Travis: What do you make of Faria? Seems like he’s underhyped, considering his MiLB success. Looks like he has some BB issues, but has put up quite a nice combined line in 2017. Another “good at everything, great at nothing” oversight?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Well he’s certainly having a great game tonight!

9:31	Paul Swydan: As for the oversight, scouting is hard.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s been 6 innings and had home run issues in the minors. Those could come back.

9:31	Paul Swydan: And he was 17 when he was drafted.

9:32	Paul Swydan: But, yeah, so far so great.

9:32	Paul Swydan: As I said last week, the Rays have a lot of SPs right now, so I’m not sure if he’ll have the rotation spot permanently, but he’s certainly making his case for it.

9:32	Albert Pujols: Is my 2017 wRC+ of ~80 just who I am now? Can I be dropped in mixed leagues?

9:32	Paul Swydan: You probably never should have even been picked up in mixed leagues.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on the league’s depth. Thrity HRs are hard to turn down.

9:33	5 Run Homer: Best album of all time? Hint: it’s Foo Fighters’ Echoes, Silence, Patience, and Grace

9:33	Paul Swydan: You spelled “Low End Theory” by A Tribe Called Quest wrong.

9:34	Jaime: What would you say has been the storyline of baseball so far? The dominance of the Astros? Judge and the Yankees? More and more dingers? Basically every pitcher alive being hurt?

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Home runs and injuries.

9:35	Paul Swydan: It’s hard to beat Judge and the Yankees. The Astros are a good storyline. The Rockies and Dbacks have been good fun. Chris Sale in Boston. Sano and the Twins.

9:36

Cam: A-Gon to the DL. His bat had already disappeared, so it’s not a huge loss for the Dodgers – Bellinger can play his natural position without fuss. Has A-Gon’s career been underappreciated? The guy was a great hitter for a good length of time. I feel like his time in BOS dampers opinions on him too much.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I feel like it’s been properly appreciated. When he came to Boston, it was as a conquering hero. And he’s had plenty of attention in LA.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s been good but not great. I feel he may hover around 30% in HOF voting based on the length of his career.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Nah, I doubt he even gets that much.

9:37	Skipple: I was reading a quote from Buck Showalter where he said relievers are only good every other year due to their work loads on those previous years. Is there any evidence to support this theory?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: off to the WAR graphs for Agon

9:38	Paul Swydan: Not that I’m aware of, and you would think he’d know better considering Darren O’Day is great every year.

9:38	Jim Lonborg: I will always vote for Mystery SP if given the option.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Haha.

9:39	Justin M: Rafael Devers with Red Sox within next week?

9:40	Paul Swydan: IMO you give Sandoval a couple of weeks before you DFA him, because he may have been rushed back following his knee injury. But if Sandoval hasn’t shown some ray of hope by the All-Star break, I’d have Devers up then.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: By ASG sounds right

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Gonzalez with total career WAR near Mattingley: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=1908,1008261,432

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably short but some consideration

9:41	Paul Swydan: Some, but IMO Mattingly wasn’t a Hall of Famer either. And I think Helton has an uphill battle because of all the people who will shout “COORS”

9:42	Rick: What are the odds for Robbie Ray as NL Cy Young winner?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I think he’d have to demonstrably better than Kershaw to win. RIght now they’re neck and neck, so I’d say the favorite is Kershaw.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: 10%. Good season, but I think Scherzer with get it.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: will get it

9:43	Paul Swydan: He may also have to be demonstrably better than his much-more-famous teammate Greinke.

9:43	Wright: With the NHL and NBA now done, are there any sports other than baseball you’re following?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Well, I’m still following the NBA because my Celtics have the No. 1 pick, and can go in many different directions in free agency. But no, not really.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but following more baseball, my kids, CWS, summer league

9:44	Paul Swydan: I’d love to follow soccer, but I don’t really have any specific team to follow.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Nor the time to pick one.

9:45	Wright: Why would the Sox have rushed Pablo back? They can’t possibly have been eager to get his bat or his glove back out there?

9:45	Paul Swydan: He was supposed to have another few days-week on his rehab, but then Pedroia went on the DL and Sandoval was magically called up to take his roster spot.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I’m not saying definitively Sandoval was rushed, but he may have been.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they wanted to know what they had

9:46	Paul Swydan: Only the Sox know for sure.

9:46	Dj: Starting to hate Gerrit Cole. How do I know when to start him these days?

9:46	Paul Swydan: If he’s pitching, then you start him.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: You just have to roll with him, kind of like Pineda. No idea when the good and the bad is coming.

9:47	Tom: Re: soccer: follow Arsenal if you want fascinating off-pitch drama.

9:47	Paul Swydan: That’s literally the last thing I want.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Unless they have their own Freeze.

9:49	Tyler: Re: Astros SP– current WAR says very little about the injury situation and their rotation going forward.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that’s fair.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: And it all could be fixed before the trade deadline, no one knows right now.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I guess I still come down on the side of they have the talent necessary to win. Nationals bullpen doesn’t.

9:52	Paul Swydan: I’m also comoforted by Keuchel and McCullers not having arm injuries.

9:52	Paul Swydan: comforted

9:52

Paul: I’ve never had a question answered in one of these chats despite having one in the queue before it even begins. Not sure how questions about music and hats supercede mine about baseball, but I’m guessing mine don’t get answered because the work you all do is awesome and the back log of questions is probably a mile long. Anyway, in case I get lucky: Polanco ROS ? Buy, Hold, or Dump? Was supposed to be a top 20 OF and Top 50 player. Debatable if he’s still in the top 150 now. What do your advanced metrics and crystal balls tell you?

9:52	Paul Swydan: We do generally have more questions than we can answer, yes.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Hold, on Polanco.

9:53	Paul Swydan: There should be more power there. The power surge last year it was what really helped his value. You have to give it another month or so to see if it kicks in.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I think this is him, the 22 HR last season was not going to repeat. He’s probably good for 20 which is helpful

9:54	Phoenix: If Kershaw pitched in the AL and/or a real hitter’s ballpark his whole career, would we still be talking about him as the best pitcher on the planet? I mean his talent level would not technically change, but his results would…

9:54	Paul Swydan: I think we’d still be talking about him plenty, yes.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Oh yeah, we talk about Pedro don’t we?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: And he had those two items working against him.

9:56	Desert Dog: I’m starting to buy the Robbie Ray hype. Looks like he’s leaning on his CB a lot more, particularly in this 5-game barrage. He in the trust-zone, start every time? ROS – top 10? top 20? outside 20?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, he’s in my trust zone now (good phrase by the way). Top 20.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I think top 20 and most people didn’t know the DBack’s D was historically bad last season. As good as the Cubs D was, the DBacks was just as bad. He was likely to get better with a little defensive regression.

9:58	Stevie: Are you optimistic about the Orioles starters and slumping cornerstones figuring things out?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Machado, yes. But the pitchers, no, not really.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I bet Manny is hurt and the Orioles continue to screw up their pitching.

9:59	5 Run Homer: Okay so I know you guys don’t really know much about the draft but the Jays won on cool names alone, right? Logan Warmoth, Hagen Danner, Cullen Large, Brock Lundquist, Colton Laws?? Awesome.

9:59	Paul Swydan: I can confirm that those are great names.

10:00

Jeff Zimmerman: I think the 3rd or 4th round won it. Some great ones went right in a clump ….

10:01

Jeff Zimmerman: 4th with Cash Case going early

10:02

Paul Swydan: OK, thanks everyone. Going to call it a night. Talk next week!

10:03

Jeff Zimmerman: bye

FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/13/17