FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/16/15

by Paul Swydan

June 16, 2015

4:16

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff is most likely off entertaining his in-laws tonight, so it looks as though I’ll be flying solo. But who knows, Jeff is wily, maybe he’ll escape the clutches of his family and join us for a little bit.

In the meantime, get in your questions, and I’ll see you at 9 pm ET!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Comment From CDM What do you think we can realistically expect from Schwarber in this (let’s say) 20 PA stint?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Absolutely nothing.

9:01	Comment From Minty With the Twins already calling up Buxton, what’re the odds that Sano isn’t far behind?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Maybe. The difference is Trevor Plouffe isn’t likely viewed as replaceable as their outfielders have been.

9:03	Comment From Jose Valentin I was offered Mookie Betts and Robinson Cano for Dustin Pedroia and Byron Buxton. Non-keeper league. Who wins this trade?

9:03	Paul Swydan: In a non-keeper league, I’d rather have Cano-Betts.

9:03	Comment From PuttingOutFiers Bullpen is full of promise but low on results. Have McAllister, Osuna, Kela, Joba, Strickland. Herrera is available. Joba is the only one with a real 8th inning job here but seems like the dumper. What say you? (yes its a HLDs league and I’m punting SVs).

9:03	Paul Swydan: I would certainly drop Joba for Herrera.

9:04	Comment From Merkles Boner Is Tyson Ross a hold candidate? Great stuff, lousy command.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I still like Ross. Hard to replicate those strikeouts.

9:05	Comment From Bobby Blownilla Do you tend to start a player against the opposite handed ace (like Calhoun vs. Sonny Gray) or avoid the ace and start a same-sided one (like Yelich vs. J. De La Rosa)? This happened the other night.

9:06	Paul Swydan: In general, I like to run my teams with fewer bench options for position players and more for pitchers. So, sometimes I will leave a player on the bench in that situation, but only if my other players have a more favorable situation.

9:06	Comment From Aunt Jessie Over/under on how many Cardinals/Astros FBI questions you get tonight?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I can tell you how many more I’m going to accept….

9:07	Comment From Bobby Blownilla Instead of saves and holds, what if there was some sort of “late innings high pressure ERA” created?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I mean, for the most part it’d be the same guys you’re targeting. It’d just be one category instead of two, and then relievers are even more devalued, so I don’t see the point.

9:08	Comment From David Faris Can we talk about the Phillies’ offensive futility in comparative historical perspective?

9:08	Paul Swydan: We can, but I’d prefer to wait another month or so.

9:08	Comment From hi How do you feel about Dickerson’s foot? I need an OF and was offered Lackey and Dickerson for Strasburg. I’ve held on to Stras to this point but I’m still terrified of what I might get when he comes back

9:09	Paul Swydan: He had to sit for two days after being back for two games, so I am fully pessimistic about his foot. I am carrying him because I’m in a deepish league with no better options, but he’s now a bench guy for me. Which sucks.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Having said that, feel free to trade Strasburg, but I’d want different players.

9:09	Comment From Stevolatte Woukd you drop either Aaron Harang or Carlos Rodon or

9:10	Paul Swydan: I would drop Harang if those are my choices.

9:10	Comment From Total Clown Is the Jays’ roster construction a clever MLB ploy to inflate scoring?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Nope, just a clever way to win games.

9:10

Comment From Kyle Schwarber, probably
Hey Paul, hope everything is well. id like to hear your thoughts on a player I don’t see talked about too much this year after a nice rookie campaign – Marcell Ozuna. He seems to be playing a tiny bit below expectations, but nothing glaring. What kind of ROS do you see? Would you take him over Josh Harrison in a utility slot?

9:11	Paul Swydan: The problem is that in order to be a good offensive player, he needs power. Guys that aren’t patient and aren’t powerful aren’t all that much to write home about, and right now Ozuna is doing neither well.

9:12	Paul Swydan: As for ROS, I would lean Harrison because of the multi-position flex, and because he has performed better.

9:12	Comment From STS Mookie or L Martin ROS?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I’m liking what I see from Mookie this past week. I’ll say Mookie, though I am a big Leonys fan. I worry about his playing time a little, though with DeShields hitting the DL that isn’t as big of a concern at the moment.

9:13	Comment From Los Struggling badly at 1b and have Soler, Strasburg, and Andrew Miller on the shelf with only two DL slots. Should I trade one of those 3 for David Ortiz?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Probably not, but if you do, make it Strasburg.

9:13	Comment From Steve Should I trade Hanley while I still can? The SS eligibility is so crucial but he scares me. Maybe Hanley for Desmond + a kicker?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Well, Desmond isn’t doing much better. But yeah, if it’s a keeper league, I would definitely trade Hanley, since the SS eligibility is going away.

9:14	Comment From Steve Matz, Montero and Herrera for Tulo. Who says no?

9:14	Paul Swydan: The Rockies. That’s not even close, sorry.

9:14	Comment From Steve Is there any reason to roster Nova? I would have to drop Panik.

9:15	Paul Swydan: There are reasons, sure, but not if it means dropping Panik.

9:15	Comment From machinebreaker I’m entertaining my in-laws, but I have a computer on my lap, hence I am here. Also, beers.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Well, I think Jeff was also attending sporting events for his little ones, so not an apples to apples comparison. Still, you’re pretty cool. I like you.

9:15	Comment From Steve Can Pujols keep this up?

9:16	Paul Swydan: More or less. The SLG/ISO will probably come down some, but even if it does, this is a totally acceptable version of Pujols. He’s not ALBERT PUJOLS, but a three-win player is still useful.

9:17	Comment From Steve Should we be excited about Iwakuma’s return?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Sure, always nice when a guy gets back in action.

9:17	Comment From Big Pete Jose Fernandez will be an ace upon his return. Write it down.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Matt Harvey’s June says hi.

9:18	Comment From If had a boat… I’d go out on the ocean…but if I had fangraphs Tshirt, I’d got out where?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I do not understand this question.

9:18	Comment From Jimbo You think Osuna takes the closer seat from Cecil or do they make a move for Pap? What’s your guy say?

9:19	Paul Swydan: My guy? I have guys? I don’t think I have guys. In any case, I think they’ll stick with Cecil.

9:19	Comment From Cooter Harper will finish above Trout in the player rater. True or False?

9:19	Paul Swydan: False.

9:19	Comment From Vic I have Correa and Buxton. I started Correa from the 1st week….Buxton I decided to sit. Should I be starting Buxton beginning next Monday without hesitation?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yes, unless they start platooning him.

9:20	Comment From Vic I yonder if Alonso is an automatic start in a 15 teamer?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Ha, well played. I would not say he’s an automatic start, no. I don’t view him as a top 15 first baseman.

9:20	Comment From Michael On the one hand, Blake Swihart could use more seasoning in AAA and threatens to be a super-two if he stays in the majors. On the other hand, Sandy Leon is hitting 16 wRC+ (your prediction in the 4/7 chat was 65 wRC+). Your guess for what happens when Hanigan returns?

9:22

Paul Swydan: First off, that’s humbling/scary that you remember something I said about a backup catcher back in April.

Second, I think Leon will get the axe. At this point, you might as well leave Swihart up for development time in the majors. And Leon has been an automatic out, so there isn’t much justification to keeping him around. In fact, they should have already moved on from him, but the Sox front office has been inertia-based this year.

9:22	Comment From Larry Bernandez What’s your guys’s take on pitching out? Good idea or bad idea?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think it needs to be applied sparingly. If teams are looking for it, they’ll tease you into automatic balls, and hitter’s counts. There needs to be an element of surprise.

9:23

Comment From Ryan
Cueto, Cozart, and Chapman to the Dodgers for Cory Seager: Cueto and Chapman help the Dodgers win this year; Cozart rehabs and takes over SS after Rollins leaves; and Seager plays SS for the Reds until Frazier departs or until the Reds finally decide to fill their perpetual void in LF. Is this idea crazy?

9:25	Paul Swydan: It’s not crazy, but here’s the thing – I don’t think the Dodgers need those guys to win it all this year. So, I don’t see it happening. Sorry, my battery died without warning.

9:26	Comment From gem Is there ANY chance Schwarber stays up? Maybe Theo said that so the kid felt as little pressure as possible?

9:26	Paul Swydan: There is definitely a chance, but he’s still pretty green, there’s no reason he needs to stay up for good.

9:26	Comment From Pietro You think Davis can wrangle the job from Holland?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I still worry that Holland isn’t totally healthy, but if he is, I think he keeps the job.

9:27	Paul Swydan: The good news is that Davis is good enough to be worth keeping even in leagues that don’t count holds.

9:27	Comment From tod 11-team roto, are any of these droppables: Kang, Polanco, Choo ?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I definitely think Polanco and Choo are. I’d hang onto Kang though.

9:27	Comment From seven Julio Teheran droppable?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Quite droppable, seven. Quite.

9:28	Comment From Rick What prospect package could Toronto put together to snare Cueto and Chapman?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure they can put together a package for both. Or, would be willing to put together the package they would need to. I could see Cueto happening though.

9:29	Comment From Michael How do the Red Sox get rid of David Ortiz so they can move HanRam to DH?

9:30	Paul Swydan: They don’t. David Ortiz is a legend who has been a part of three World Series teams, and is still crushing right-handed pitching (and has two hits against lefties in the past few days). Hanley Ramirez is a malcontent who can and should be dumped if he doesn’t get his act together.

9:30	Paul Swydan: The PR loss from trading Ortiz would be far more costly than admitting you made a mistake on Ramirez and selling low on him.

9:30	Comment From Schloss Panik or Rendon rest of season?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Rendon, but it’s a LOT closer than it would have been three months ago.

9:31	Comment From Schloss Are you worried about Cueto’s elbow?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Very.

9:31	Comment From the coach Vince Velasquez, anything more than a streamer in redrafts?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no.

9:31	Comment From Tim Has Robinson Cano replaced Ryan Howard as holder of the worst contract in baseball?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Not yet. He’s not even done with his first bad year. Let’s give him some time.

9:31	Comment From Quisenberry Pancakes Is Greg Holland hiding another injury?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Perhaps from the public, but I would think the Royals are pretty clear on his medical status at this juncture.

9:32	Comment From Schloss How many shortstops do you take over Crawford at this point?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Great question. Let’s see. Tulo, Xander, maybe Simmons. Correa. Mayyyyybe Iglesias. Maybe Lindor. It’s a short list, obviously.

9:34	Comment From Eager Seager Beaver Is a cheap Goldschmidt and average Upton decent value to trade for expensive Trout and McCutchen? The last place Trout/McCutchen owner seems to be clinging to them tightly.

9:35

Paul Swydan: Well, if your last place team has both Trout and McCutchen, chances are he or she isn’t the quickest of cats at the best of times. So, I wouldn’t let that throw you. To answer your question, maybe. I think I’d certainly rather have expensive Trout over average price Upton, I know that much. But it’s hard to say concretely without knowing more.

9:35	Comment From Michael I didn’t remember, I looked it up with Google. 😉

9:35	Paul Swydan: I’m still flattered you found that on Google!

9:36	Comment From Stockhfcrx Where do you see Oswaldo Arcia ending up? With the recent promotions of Vargas and Buxton, it look’s like the Twins have lost faith in him.

9:37	Paul Swydan: And that may be justified. I don’t have a great sense of that right now, but for now I would file this under “Twins being the Twins.” I think we’ll see him back shortly.

9:38	Paul Swydan: One thing is for sure – Buxton’s PT shouldn’t be cutting into Arcia’s, unless they start playing Hicks in a corner. Which they shouldn’t.

9:38	Comment From Spicy felix! Traded teixiera for bumgarner. Do i win all things that are trade? 5×5 plus ops and k/9

9:39	Paul Swydan: Normally I would say yes, but Texy Tex has been pretty Texy this year. 157 wRC+ ain’t nothing to sneeze at. I assume he’ll get hurt at some point though, and then you will be the big weiner.

9:39	Comment From Pietro In a league that counts hitter’s k’s, would it be reasonable to trade Stanton for Brantley and a stud pitcher?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Yeah, an 18% difference is pretty stark. http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:40

Comment From Eager Seager Beaver
Let’s say I’m a fan of a bad team…the Phillies maybe. Let’s say that team is expected to trade their commodities that hold any value. Should I be excited about the future, or really super depressed about the current state? I mean, I want to be excited, but, you know, Ruben.

9:41	Paul Swydan: I think that you shouldn’t be either, generally. It’s just baseball, and when the local team isn’t good that is an opportunity to spend more time on other pursuits. But I think I’d be more excited about the future.

9:41	Comment From zackleftyp Jorge Soler 2nd half expectations?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Still have high expectations.

9:42	Comment From Roughshod What to do with Neil Walker at 2B? With the only other options being Drew, Owings or Sogard, do I stay the course?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Yeah, you kind of have to.

9:42	Comment From Schloss Who starts to sell first Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Oakland or Philly?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it’s a race, but probably Oakland. They know themselves better than most.

9:42	Comment From Peter 12 Team shallow keeper roto. I am in contention this year, but I want Buxton badly. Am I crazy? Can I count on any production this year?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I don’t think you can count on his production this year, but if you want him, get him! A) It’s supposed to be fun, and B) If you get him and it pays off, your faith in him will have made it that much more invigorating.

9:43	Comment From zackleftyp Wacha or Tyson Ross?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Probably Wacha, especially if your league counts wins.

9:44	Comment From Schloss If you are a contender looking to solidify your bullpen do you give up greater assets for Chapman or lesser for Clippard?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Clippard. Not even a question.

9:44

Comment From Simon McPherson
Is there a stat that captures a player’s fantasy value? I know there are stats like BABIP, FIP, etc that seek to find hidden value …etc but ,do any of them specifically rank a player, say vs the ‘average’ player, specifically regarding his fantasy value, not real world value?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Well, our auction calculator is basically what you’re talking about. Not sure how valuable it is as an in-season tool, but that gets at what you’re asking.

9:46	Comment From Drew Who would you rather have going forward: Teheran or Strasburg?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Strasburg, just on the potential, but I’m not real enamored with either.

9:46	Comment From Rated Rookie Do you think Kevin Gausman starts for the Orioles this weekend? And do you think he’ll stick in the rotation? Or will we have to wait until Gausman is out of option years for him to not be yo-yoed.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I think he is going to keep getting yo-yo’d, but I hope I’m wrong.

9:47	Comment From Belieber I love Denard Span. He’s my hero.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Cool, thanks for sharing.

9:48	Comment From zackleftyp Is Christian Yelich finally starting to come around?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’m hopeful, because the K rate has come down significantly this month. Fingers crossed.

9:49	Paul Swydan: U-S-A! U-S-A! Moving on up. Love it.

9:49	Comment From Larry Bernandez Is it worth starting Schwarber’s clock if they are just going to send him down later?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yeah, he was going to be up this year no matter what, and if this is really just a week or so, it should end up being the same.

9:50	Comment From Schloss Who should the Giants target to bolster their SP, Cueto, Kazmir, Samardzija or aim lower for someone like Leake?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I believe they are already scouting Leake and Cueto, and both them and the other two you mentioned should be someone they can get. The Giants always find a way to make a favorable deal.

9:51	Comment From stephania strausburg thoughts on nova going forward?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I’m optimistic, though he’s not back until he’s back.

9:52	Comment From Jagger. How much trade value do guys like Brock Holt and Justin Turner have?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Very, very little. Every team may not have such a player, but most teams probably THINK they have such a player.

9:53	Comment From Roughshod I lost Cozart and added Brock Holt just this week. I look like a genius for at least one day.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yes! And it counts!

9:53	Paul Swydan: I miss Marv Albert. Oh well.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Mike Breen is good too.

9:54	Comment From Peter Can you see any team trading FOR Kemp, or are the Padres stuck with him?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Padres are stuck, most likely. Never say never, and it only takes one team to bite and all of that, but I’d be pretty surprised if anyone takes him on.

9:54	Comment From Eager Seager Beaver How much longer before Seager usurps Rollins?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I don’t see that happening before August.

9:55	Comment From Drew Should we expect Parnell to get more save opportunities?

9:55	Paul Swydan: No I would think at this point that Familia is the guy.

9:55	Comment From Dave in London Do you see Cano getting back to being a good hitter ROS? If so, how good?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I do, to most his former value. I just don’t see the drop off coming so quick.

9:56	Comment From Schloss Going for a fantasy title this season would you trade Seager for Crawford?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Corey Seager? Yeah, I’d be cool with that.

9:57	Comment From Eager Seager Beaver After Syndergaard’s last start do the “Thor to the pen” whispers stop? How/when does Matz get called up??

9:57	Paul Swydan: Well, I think the How is that they would probably call the Triple-A manager, and have him tell him, and then get him a plane ticket….. You can never know with the Mets. I don’t think they’re in any rush to call up Matz.

9:57	Comment From Jagger. Really? I mean over the last year and a half Turner has been worth 7 WAR and Holt has been worth 4WAR. They’re both cheap, Holt is young, I would think they’d have pretty good value.

9:59

Paul Swydan: Brock Holt is 27. How is that young? Also, players can lose WAR too. And Turner is at 5.2 WAR since the start of ’14.

Furthermore, you have to accept that sometimes the role that a guy is in is his optimal role. If these guys were playing more than 4-5 times a week, they might not be as valuable over the course of an entire season.

9:59	Comment From The Boat Jesse Chavez and his 2.80 FIP – worthy trade candidate for a club that suppresses homers like AT&T or Kaufman?