The Paul Goldschmidt Dinger Test
Is Paul Goldschmidt underrated? Probably, yes. Is Paul Goldschmidt the most underrated player in all of baseball? Probably. Maybe. I don’t know. It’s a tricky question, with no possible answer. I mean, on the one hand, Goldschmidt is the National League vote leader at first base for the All-Star Game, and his lead is something like a million votes. People know who Paul Goldschmidt is, and they think he’s great. But there’s also the feel test, and while everyone’s results will be different, it feels to me like Goldschmidt doesn’t get enough credit. Not that he cares — championships aren’t won upon public opinion — but more time should be spent considering his exploits. All those things we’ve said this year about Bryce Harper? Goldschmidt hasn’t really been any worse.
Some of it is the player himself — Goldschmidt isn’t one to linger in the spotlight. And some of it is the team — there’s no such thing as a forgettable MLB franchise, but relatively speaking, the Diamondbacks aren’t the Yankees. It’s easy enough to understand maybe overlooking Goldschmidt, or perhaps taking him a little for granted, yet he really is something else. He really is, right now, an MVP contender. Let’s seize this opportunity to focus on Goldschmidt and take the Paul Goldschmidt dinger test. What is the Paul Goldschmidt dinger test? It’s what’s starting right now. Geez.
For no particular reason, I selected eight different Goldschmidt swings from this year. You’ll see slow-motion video, pausing with Goldschmidt halfway through swinging. Your task, then, is very simple: vote in the poll. The vote: whether you think Paul Goldschmidt hit a home run. Answers will be provided at the bottom of the post, but don’t skip ahead until you’re finished. What’s the point of skipping ahead? You aren’t being graded on this.
Good luck to everyone!
Goldschmidt swing No. 1
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Goldschmidt swing No. 2
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Goldschmidt swing No. 3
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Goldschmidt swing No. 4
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Goldschmidt swing No. 5
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Goldschmidt swing No. 6
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Goldschmidt swing No. 7
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Goldschmidt swing No. 8
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
==========
Answer Key
Goldschmidt swing No. 1
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Yes!
I’m not actually sure who Tyler Wagner is, but I’m sure that, a few weeks ago, he gave up a dinger to Paul Goldschmidt. There doesn’t have to be any shame in that. It’s the first big-league dinger surrendered of Wagner’s career, and there are worse guys to give it up to. You notice Goldschmidt went out the other way. This year he has five home runs to the opposite field. His wRC+ that way is 207; for his career, it’s 194. He already has more opposite-field homers than he hit last season.
Goldschmidt swing No. 2
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Yes!
You know Jered Weaver knew. Would be hard not to know. Goldschmidt is dangerous hitting to right and right-center, but he’s been even better up the middle. On the year, he has a 264 wRC+ to center, ranking him fifth in the league.
Goldschmidt swing No. 3
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Yes!
Nevermind Brett Anderson’s extraordinary groundball rate; you can’t keep the ball down against everyone. This year, against southpaws, Goldschmidt has a 220 wRC+, ranking him third in the league. His wOBA, if you prefer, is a silly-looking .501.
Goldschmidt swing No. 4
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Yes!
So, Goldschmidt has that 220 wRC+ against lefties, but he also has a 203 wRC+ against righties, even though in theory that’s the platoon disadvantage. And maybe this is what a platoon disadvantage looks like, for Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt’s been baseball’s second-best hitter against righties, and he’s been baseball’s very best right-handed hitter against righties.
Goldschmidt swing No. 5
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Yes!
To review, Goldschmidt has been outstanding hitting to the opposite field. He’s been outstanding going up the middle. And he’s been baseball’s best pull hitter, with a 354 wRC+. Second place is more than 50 points away. Second place, as it happens, is Giancarlo Stanton. Goldschmidt is the very model of an all-fields threat, and that’s the very model of an ideal offensive superstar.
Goldschmidt swing No. 6
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Yes!
Unsurprisingly, Goldschmidt is at his best when he puts the ball in the air. On fly balls, he has a 356 wRC+, third-best in baseball. Over his career, it’s a somewhat comparable 283. How about trying some Statcast data? On balls hit in the air, Goldschmidt has averaged a batted-ball speed of 98.7 miles per hour, second from the top. He’s no Stanton in that regard, but no one else is a Goldschmidt.
Goldschmidt swing No. 7
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
Yes!
Maybe we don’t need splits. Splits are fun, but they can distract from the overall picture. Overall, the only hitter better than Goldschmidt this year has been Harper. So, Goldschmidt has been the No. 1 right-handed hitter, a good deal more productive so far than Miguel Cabrera. Goldschmidt also has baseball’s No. 2 walk rate, because, in case you haven’t noticed, he’s terrifying. He does everything. He hits for average. He hits for power. He gets on base in between the extra-base hits. Used to be a time Goldschmidt was considered a middling prospect and a future platoon first baseman. What he’s become is one of the greatest hitters of his generation, and he’s not 28 until September.
Goldschmidt swing No. 8
Did Paul Goldschmidt hit a dinger?
No
Way to keep him in the yard, Gio Gonzalez.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
It’s actually pretty impressive to predict this horribly from work, where the images/video are disabled. I want to see what I can do if I see the images.
Paul Goldschmidt is underrated. But, he’s not even the most underrated First baseman (That would be Anthony Rizzo) much less the most underrated player in MLB.
Rizzo has already had two Fangraphs articles this season. This is Goldy’s first. Ergo, Rizzo is less underrated. QED.
Your supposition assumes Fangraphs is anything approaching a final authority on who is properly rated and that the number of articles regarding individual players is directly correlated to how much said player is rated. By that logic, Freddie Freeman is more underrated than either. (Full disclosure, I am a massive Freddie Freeman fan but even I acknowledge he is likely overrated due to Atlanta’s dearth of surrounding talent and his media friendly personality)
I think science was kidding :p
If we are using all star votes and Fangraph articles, I vote Todd Frazier as the most under rated player, at least in the NL. He’s third in the balloting at third base. And it seemed like every writer at Fangraphs dismissed his 2014 as a lucky, career year that he would never repeat. His name was mentioned several times in the Bold Predictions series, and it was always a negative prediction. He is very similar to Josh Donaldson in many ways, but Donaldson is considered a stud here, and he is, while Frazier is just an afterthought.
Sorry to hijack at Paul Goldschmidt article with stuff about Frazier. Goldschmidt is amazing and deserves all the attention that he is starting to get.
I like Todd Frazier because I feel like he would be terrible at every other sport based on how he looks and plays baseball (not overly big, quck, strong, agile). It’s like had no other option but to succeed at baseball.
You need to read his bio. But yes, he looks like all my irish cousins from Philly.
That clip #5 is truly terrifying. It looks like his body is a spring.
What an awesome post. Instead of just writing about how awesome Goldschmidt has been, you made it fun and interactive. This is one of my favorites.
Also, I see you’re getting more creative in how you incorporate .gifs into your articles, Jeff. I approve.
Eh, Rizzo is a bit underrated (after being a bit overrated early in his career), but I feel like Goldschmidt gets lumped in with Rizzo and Freeman a lot, and one of those is not like the others.
Yes. Freeman.
And Rizzo is 25yrs old.
Goldschmidt’s OPS+ lead over Rizzo is exactly twice as large as Rizzo’s lead over Freeman this year.
Well yes. This year alone Goldy is crushing Rizzo.
Add the context of past performance and career trajectory and they are quite similar.
I also assume Goldy is not a career 202 wRC+ hitter.
But yes, Goldy is killing it this year. No argument there.
Freeman is a month younger than Rizzo and has more WAR and a higher career wRC+.
Looking at wRC+:
If you look at 2015, Rizzo is much closer to Freeman.
If you look at 2014-15, Rizzo is closer to Freeman.
If you look at 2013-15, Rizzo is much closer to Freeman (he’s worse).
If you look at 2012-15, Rizzo is much closer to Freeman (he’s worse).
If you look at RoS projections for ZIPS or Steamer, Rizzo is much closer to Freeman (almost identical).
Goldy has a 202 wRC+ so far in 2015. So yes, if you think that is Goldy’s true talent then Rizzo is closer to Freeman.
Likewise with Rozzo’s 2013. If you think that is Rizzo’s true talent and not an aberration then you are correct.
I assume that 2015 is abnormally good for Goldy and that 2013 was abnormally bad for Rizzo.
But those are assumptions.
Freeman is also MUCH better than I thought.
Yeah, Freddie’s really good. He just doesn’t get the love because he’s a high average, moderate power 1B.
…and Freeman is 25 years old.
What’s your point?
That he is younger than Goldy?
what about me?
I think they should have extended you last winter, before you got really expensive, but what the hell do I know?
Nice to see some Goldy love finally, he has been a monster all season.
this was a fun article
i thought 3 of them weren’t dingers and the last one i thought was
Love the interactivity! Fun article, thanks. Goldy is a beast.
His spray stats demonstrate that has established himself as a an elite hitter, and if you live anywhere but Arizona – or at least, NL West territory – you probably don’t fully appreciate this. Unless, of course, you are a Fangraphs reader.
Tempering the superlatives for just a moment, I think it’s worth pointing out that he has been a stronger first half performer thus far in his career. His OPS is 131 points higher (.984 vs .853) and wRC+ is 37 points higher (164 vs 127) compared to the second half. I will qualify this with the fact that he hasn’t yet played the second half of this season, obviously, and he missed much of the second half of last season, so there is less second half data to use for projecting his performance going forward. But that .409 BABIP he has working for him so far is a flag when held against his .321 BABIP in the second half for his career.
This is not meant to take away from how good of a hitter Goldy has become. But comparing him as you did to Cabrera, for instance- if I had to bet on whose performance is more likely to be sustained throughout the season, I would decisively choose the Venezuelan beast.
Poor analysis. He has only played two seasons in which you could compare first vs. second halves (2012 and 2013). Here are 1st/2nd half his OPS splits:
2012: .920/.782
2013: .952/.952
So your claim that he is a “stronger first half performer” is based on a single season — which is not at all predictive of future seasonal half splits.
It was not a claim. It was an observation, substantiated with data, and then qualified.
By contrast, here’s a claim: you’re poor at interpreting text.
I’m happy to report that I snagged Goldschmidt as a minor leaguer in my keeper league by breaking the cardinal rule of evaluating prospects–I scouted the boxscores and ignored the critical scouting reports! Do I say this just to boast? Only partly. My real point is that certain sabermetrically-inclined baseball sites have drifted increasingly towards old-fashioned scouting evaluations, allowing guys like Goldschmidt to slip under the radar and off the prospect rankings. Look back at Goldschmidt’s stats lines from the Pioneer and California leagues, and it’s obvious in retrospect this guy had exceptional hitting talent. Not only is he underrated now, he was underrated from the get go.
Eh, Goldie graduated during his breakout season, and also dramatically improved when he hit the bigs, not to mention that he completely transformed his body during his first MLB offseason.
He would have been big on 2012 prospect lists if he hadn’t exceeded rookie eligibility in 2011, but no one is going to put a bad-bodied 1B on a Top 100 after a big season in the California League.
He’s an enormously strong line-drive hitter that hits with leverage to all fields. In some ways he reminds me of Jeff Bagwell at the plate without the exaggerated crouch.
wow, that last swing looked like it produced a shallow fly, not a 405 foot wall banger.