FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/18/13 by Paul Swydan June 18, 2013 6:08 Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Join us tonight at 9 pm ET for lots of hot baseball action, served up hot! I’ll get some polls up in the meantime. Or you can suggest some polls. Or you can put in questions. Or you can make fun of my appearance. Or you can be a fairy. Or a queen. It’s wiiiiiiide open. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vay4uTJ2a50 6:18 Paul Swydan: Just in case you don’t know who Hugo is. http://simpsons.wikia.com/wiki/Hugo_Simpson_II 9:00 Paul Swydan: Alright, let’s light this candle! 9:00 Chris Cwik: Woo hoo! 9:00 Comment From zorzomatt harvey matt harvey matt harvey matt harvey? matt harvey? matt harvey matt harvey? 9:00 Paul Swydan: I concur. 9:01 Chris Cwik: Pretty damn good. 9:01 Paul Swydan: I was so disappointed that he lost the no-hitter before I got a chance to watch. Was planning on sitting and enjoying the last few innings. 9:01 Comment From MikeI drafted Carlos Rodon in a 17 player keeper league because I believe he will be a MONSTER! Hence, I enjoy watching N.C. State play in the College World Series. 9:02 Chris Cwik: Good? 9:02 Paul Swydan: Yeah, I need some sort of stake. I come from the northeast, so I just don’t have any personal ties to the CWS schools. 9:02 Paul Swydan: That would be a good stake, is what I’m saying. 9:02 Paul Swydan: Do you watch it at all Chris? 9:02 Chris Cwik: I have not. 9:03 Chris Cwik: Don’t have a ton of interest, unfortunately. 9:03 Comment From Mr. Ca$hmanDo you think Betancourt gets the closer job back in COL?Sounds like he could be back next week sometime. And if so, is Brothers worth stashing? 9:03 Paul Swydan: He should, but yes, I think Brothers is worth stashing. 9:03 Chris Cwik: I would think Betancourt gets the job back. 9:04 Paul Swydan: Betancourt is 38-years-old and has tossed 55+ innings in each of the past nine years. At some point, he’s gotta crack, right? 9:04 Comment From MetsamorphosisIs Wacha worth holding on for RoS in a standard 5x5eague? 9:04 Paul Swydan: I say no. 9:05 Chris Cwik: I see him coming up and playing a role, but who knows when that would be. I would feel comfortable dropping him if there’s someone out there you like more. 9:05 Paul Swydan: Hey, there’s Jeff! 9:05 Comment From zackIs there any defensible reason for the Phillies playing Delmon Young in the outfield on a daily basis? 9:05 Jeff Zimmerman: Finally done watching some heart pounding T-Ball 9:05 Chris Cwik: No defensible reason. 9:06 Jeff Zimmerman: No, but they will. 9:06 Paul Swydan: No, there isn’t. Brown, Revere and Mayberry/Nix platoon given their current talent. 9:06 Comment From Nervous Jays FanIs it okay to believe in Toronto yet? 9:07 Jeff Zimmerman: Once they have played a week or two over .500, then you can. 9:07 Paul Swydan: I think taking 6 of the 7 from the Rangers qualifies as a positive development, for sure. Put it this way – two weeks ago their season was over. Now it isn’t. That’s something. 9:08 Chris Cwik: Agree with Paul. There’s a chance…albeit a tiny one. 9:08 Comment From SweepahWould you trade Reynolds and Chris Young for Middlebrooks and McLouth in an AL-only redraft? 9:08 Chris Cwik: Probably not, actually. 9:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Depends how desperate you are for steals. 9:09 Paul Swydan: Debatable. Giving up Reynolds to get McLouth is how I see this, with lottery tickets in Young and Middlebrooks. Neither are playable right now, but Middlebrooks plays third, so he could have more value than Young should he turn it around. I’ll say yes. 9:09 Comment From GuestHey Guys! i was wondering what your thoughts were on the Diamondbacks rotation. Do you see any hope for signifcant positive regression from them (Miley, McCarthey, Kennedy)? Or do you believe they will they will have to find it elsewhere be it trades or Skaggs and Bradley? 9:10 Chris Cwik: I’ve never been big on Miley, but I’ll buy improvements from McCarthy and Kennedy. 9:10 Jeff Zimmerman: Sadly as I erase my comment, I agree with Chris. 9:11 Paul Swydan: I think Miley will be better. I never understood signing McCarthy. I think Kennedy is who he is. I think Skaggs is probably better than Kennedy and McCarthy right now. 9:11 Paul Swydan: What Chris, you didn’t like my Yeezus poll? 🙁 9:11 Chris Cwik: I couldn’t see it. That’s the one thing I hate about the new Coveritlive setup 9:11 Chris Cwik: Of course, I see it now. 9:11 Chris Cwik: I’m going to try and delete mine. 9:12 Paul Swydan: Hahaha. I know it is a little frustrating. 9:12 Comment From MothJose Fernandez: Top-20(ish) SP in 2014? 9:12 Paul Swydan: I’m going to say no on that. I could go top 50. But top 20 is a high bar to climb. 9:13 Chris Cwik: Top 30-35? Wins will be an issue if you use those in your league. 9:13 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe once it is all said and done. A lot of good young pitchers making their debut in 2013. 9:13 Comment From CoveritliveYOU WILL PAY FOR THAT CWIK 9:13 Paul Swydan: Hahahaha 9:13 Chris Cwik: Constructive criticism. 9:13 Paul Swydan: I’m already prepping my torture chamber. 9:13 Paul Swydan: Oh, who am I kidding, it’s always prepped. 9:14 Comment From SimonI need K’s and Wins without killing rates in 5×5 10 team H2H categories league drop 2 from this list, these are listed from easiest schedule to hardest ROS schedule Beachy Wheeler Kluber Garza Josh Johnson Streamer slot – I can make 7 waiver wire claims/week and have ability to do daily changes I have a decent enough lead (qualify for a 1st round bye) that I can be patient for a couple of weeks. 9:14 Chris Cwik: I would drop Beachy for sure. He’s not back yet, too risky coming off surgery. 9:15 Paul Swydan: I’d drop Johnson and Garza. 9:15 Chris Cwik: Other would be Garza or Johnson 9:15 Comment From MichaelI feel about Yeezus about how I feel about Kemp: Man, it was awesome a few years ago. But now, I just want the old hits back. 9:15 Jeff Zimmerman: Beachy and ……Graza 9:15 Paul Swydan: Oops, sorry Jeff. 9:15 Chris Cwik: No way. I’m really enjoying Yeezus. And MBDTF was fantastic. 9:16 Paul Swydan: I like Michael’s comment about Kemp and Kanye, that’s a good one. 9:16 Paul Swydan: Well, to be fair Chris, that was 2010. 9:16 Jeff Zimmerman: On Johnson, he is likely to get hurt, but is good if healthy. 9:16 Comment From frankieReynolds o/u .230 AVF, 18 HR ROS 9:16 Paul Swydan: I’ll be optimistic and take the over. 9:16 Jeff Zimmerman: Over average, under HRs 9:17 Chris Cwik: Both the projection systems on the site say under, for reference. 9:17 Chris Cwik: I think I’ll believe those, actually. 9:17 Comment From guberHafner or Konerko ROS? cant believe im asking this as a konerko owner 🙁 9:17 Paul Swydan: I’ll say Hafner. 9:17 Chris Cwik: Konerko 9:17 Chris Cwik: Ouch 9:18 Chris Cwik: Ouch is what Hafner will say when he gets hurt again 9:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Konerko 9:18 Comment From TommyChances Josh Johnson gets traded? 9:18 Paul Swydan: I’ll say 0%. 9:18 Jeff Zimmerman: 20% 9:18 Chris Cwik: Agree with Paul. It will be tough to find someone to buy in based on his injuries, inconsistency. 9:19 Paul Swydan: I don’t see Toronto pitching in the towel and trading guys off. It might not happen for them this season, but I think they’ll come back with largely the same group next season. 9:19 Comment From volcano insurance salesmaneither of you play warlight? 9:19 Jeff Zimmerman: One sec, Bowden wrote about this the other day. 9:19 Chris Cwik: Oh man, I hope Bowden wrote about Warlight. 9:19 Paul Swydan: I’ve never heard of warlight. So I’m gonna say no … 9:19 Jeff Zimmerman: Bowden says 70%: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=6861 9:19 Chris Cwik: But I don’t play it, and don’t know what it is… 9:20 Chris Cwik: Sad…i feel out of touch. 9:20 Jeff Zimmerman: No time for video games in my life right now. 9:20 Paul Swydan: Ya but maybe we’re in touch and the people who play Warlight are out of touch. Did you ever think about that Chris? 9:21 Chris Cwik: Nope. I just assume it’s me. 9:21 Comment From gbrown, river northdo you value strasburg the same as you did preseason? 9:21 Chris Cwik: Slightly less. He’s struggled with command if you ask me. 9:21 Paul Swydan: Yes, but then I didn’t value him as highly as most did before the season thanks to Jeff’s research on TJ repeaters. 9:22 Jeff Zimmerman: No, I thought this would be his one great season and then break down. Break down is happening a little faster. 9:22 Chris Cwik: That seems harsh 9:22 Paul Swydan: Nas and AZ said it best, Chris – life’s a b*tch and then you die. 9:23 Jeff Zimmerman: No young hard throwing pitcher has really been healthy for more than a couple of season after TJS 9:23 Chris Cwik: I have something I wanted to post. 9:23 Comment From bucs_lose_againI know Cameron and Zimmerman are Mariners fans, and Eno is a Mets fan. Where does everyone else’s allegiances lie? 9:23 Chris Cwik: Yeah, Zim. Why do you love the M’s so much? 9:23 Paul Swydan: Haha. 9:23 Jeff Zimmerman: Sullivan = Mariners, Zimmerman and Klaasen = Royals. 9:24 Paul Swydan: I root for the Red Sox, and to a much lesser extent, the Rockies (because I used to work for them). 9:24 Chris Cwik: Cwik = White Sox…sadly. 9:24 Comment From GuestThoughts on Joe Mauer’s dramatically increased K rate? 9:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Getting older and a slower swing. 9:25 Chris Cwik: Hmm…age? He is 30. Contact rate down. Swinging strike rate up. 9:25 Paul Swydan: I think it’s a little odd because his SwStr% hasn’t risen so dramatically that you would expect such a sharp jump in his K%. 9:25 Chris Cwik: But it is at a career-high 9:26 Chris Cwik: Which is still excellent since it’s Mauer, obviously. 9:26 Paul Swydan: It is, but 6.6% is still really low. 9:26 Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, Mariner fans and Royal fans don’t really get along because of Grass Creek: http://www.royalsreview.com/2007/4/27/141559/399 9:26 Comment From bucs_lose_againSullivan! I meant Sullivan! 9:26 Chris Cwik: LIES 9:26 Comment From zorzoSzym = Orioles? 9:26 Paul Swydan: Not sure who Dan roots for. 9:26 Chris Cwik: No idea 9:27 Comment From volcano insurance salesmanwarlight is essentially risk with real-world maps. if you played risk as a kid, you’d love it. 9:27 Chris Cwik: Gonna look into that 9:27 Paul Swydan: Oh. Well then yes, I would absolutely love this. Risk was by far my favorite board game growing up. 9:28 Jeff Zimmerman: I will probably stick with Castean(sp?) for now. 9:28 Comment From ElliottWith Buchholtz now on the DL who would be a better play for this week: Teheran (at MIL) or Porcello (BAL) 9:29 Paul Swydan: Teheran on talent, but Porcello might be the better play by ballpark (assuming you mean that that game is in DET) 9:29 Chris Cwik: I’ll ride the Porcello train here, actually. 9:29 Jeff Zimmerman: Teheran, always take the NL pitcher. 9:29 Comment From HouzerCould MLB support 4 new teams? Seems like there are some areas on this country without exposure to MLB. Tough to get kids excited about the MLB when they have no live exposure to the game 9:30 Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. I think two would be pushing it, and then only if one of the two teams was in the NY metro area. 9:30 Chris Cwik: I say no. You already have two teams in Florida with attendance issues. 9:30 Jeff Zimmerman: I think there is talent, but there needs to be a market. 9:30 Paul Swydan: Not to mention Oakland and San Diego. 9:31 Comment From TylersnotesHaven’t heard yeezus yet but best kanye album is late registration right? 9:31 Chris Cwik: It would have to be adding a third team in a huge market. NY or CHI or something. 9:31 Chris Cwik: I like MBDTF best 9:32 Paul Swydan: It’s #3 for me now, and could end up being #4 after Yeezus. 9:33 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t listen to West at all. 9:33 Comment From moratis the greekwheeler or peavy? 9:33 Chris Cwik: Peavy 9:33 Paul Swydan: For this year, still Peavy. 9:33 Jeff Zimmerman: Peavy. 9:33 Comment From zorzodo the phillies get quality players for lee or would they accept a salary dump? or both? 9:34 Chris Cwik: No way, they’ll want quality. Lee is still pretty damn good. 9:34 Chris Cwik: Now if we’re talking Ryan Howard… 9:34 Jeff Zimmerman: I just don’t see them trading him. 9:34 Paul Swydan: I could see either, honestly. Ruben Amaro doesn’t do five year plans, so maybe he’ll just want to free up cash to go after another free agent. Doesn’t make sense, but then, what does he do that makes sense? 9:35 Comment From fsh chicagowhat round would you take harper if you drafted today, including all the current injury? 9:35 Paul Swydan: keeper lg – 1redraft – 2-3 9:35 Jeff Zimmerman: 2nd to 3rd 9:35 Chris Cwik: AGREEMENTS!!!! 9:36 Comment From zackHAve you ever seen a team with the combination of really awesome and ruinously awful players the brewers have? 9:36 Paul Swydan: Sure, how about the 2010 Rockies? 9:36 Chris Cwik: Dodgers? 9:36 Jeff Zimmerman: The current Yankees 9:36 Chris Cwik: I mean, Luis Cruz, you guys 9:37 Chris Cwik: Juan effin Uribe 9:37 Paul Swydan: 5.7 WAR or better from Ubaldo, Tulo and Cargo and still just 83 wins. 9:37 Paul Swydan: Yeah Luis Cruz is awful. 9:38 Comment From Chicago MarkJarrod Parker…..#2 or #3 starter? 9:38 Paul Swydan: #2 posing as a #1 9:38 Chris Cwik: I’ll say high-3, possibly a low 2 9:38 Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sold on Parker just yet. 9:39 Comment From volcano insurance salesmancan’t wait to see the look on my friends faces when i tell them i’m playing warlight against PAUL FREAKIN SWYDAN! they’ll be all like “wtf is warlight” and “who the hell is paul swydan” 9:39 Paul Swydan: that is hilarious and sad all at the same time. mostly hilarious. 9:39 Jeff Zimmerman: and who is Paul Swydan? 9:39 Comment From HouzerWas offered Cain and Goldschmidt for Hosmer and J Upton. Thoughts? 9:40 Chris Cwik: I think I might take that 9:40 Paul Swydan: Hit accept and then go play the lotto, it’s your lucky day. 9:40 Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on needs. 9:40 Comment From Chicago MarkTo Zim, re Parker, what do you need to see to sell? 9:40 Chris Cwik: Gonna guess more Ks is one thing 9:41 Paul Swydan: The question was for Jeff!!!! 9:41 Jeff Zimmerman: A K/BB over 2. Just too many walks for the K’s he allows. 9:42 Chris Cwik: Suck it, Paul. 9:42 Comment From Paul GoldschlagerIs Chris Archer this bad or is just the tough offenses he’s been facing? 9:42 Paul Swydan: The walks are a problem. Not ready to cut bait after three starts, obviously, but he needs to figure out his control. 9:43 Chris Cwik: Way too many walks. 9:43 Jeff Zimmerman: Not going to make it with 5.5 BB/9 9:43 Comment From zackWhat are the odds of Yu Darvish posting the first 300K season since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2002? 20%? 9:44 Chris Cwik: 3% 9:44 Paul Swydan: 20% would be the high end, I think. I’ll say 10% or less. Will depend a lot on opponents. Maybe if he starts a lot against Houston and Seattle down the stretch… 9:44 Jeff Zimmerman: 10% 9:44 Comment From Paul H.Wheeler certainly living up to the hype tonight – not that the Braves offense is really producing runs lately. 9:45 Paul Swydan: No, but still a good showing, at least statistically. I didn’t get a chance to watch, unfortunately. 9:45 Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks, i will have to watch the highlights. 9:45 Paul Swydan: Again though, walks were an issue. 9:45 Chris Cwik: Same here. Gotta watch the highlights. 9:45 Comment From DionysusPaul, assuming Papi misses the HOF (safe assumption) and finished out his career with the Red Sox: If the decision was yours, do you retire his number? 9:47 Paul Swydan: They’re going to do it. They played pretty fast and loose with those rules when it came to Pesky. So they’ve set precedent to do whatever they want. And under these new rules, yes, I would. But I don’t mind him not having his number retired, and as much as I love Pesky I was a little annoyed they retired his. But maybe I’m just a stickler. 9:47 Comment From HouzerProfar just gonna a super utility guy for the rest of this season? 9:47 Chris Cwik: Nope. He’ll find a permanent spot. 9:47 Chris Cwik: Too good to just move around. 9:48 Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul and Chris. 9:48 Comment From michael young, philiany sabermetric numbers say im not over the hill? 9:48 Jeff Zimmerman: CarGo’s arm. 9:49 Chris Cwik: Your walk rate is not terrible this year 9:49 Paul Swydan: what chris said 9:50 Comment From SteveTrade Wilhelmsen for Edwin Jackson? I have have other closers, though the only one with plenty of security is Romo, others have decent to little security 9:50 Chris Cwik: Sure. Go for it 9:50 Jeff Zimmerman: No problem with me. 9:50 Paul Swydan: i wouldnt. jackson hasnt been good enough to trade for in my book. 9:51 Comment From Rickie MonthsKazmir or Roberto Hernandez ROS? 9:51 Chris Cwik: Roberto Hernandez 9:51 Chris Cwik: Unbelievably…is this 2007? 9:51 Jeff Zimmerman: is nails across a caulk board another option? 9:52 Paul Swydan: hernandez 9:52 Chris Cwik: Is the caulk board a mixture of caulk spread out like a chalk board? 9:53 Comment From gerald, chitownwould you rather start a slightly better player batting 9th or slightly worse player batting 2nd? 9:53 Jeff Zimmerman: Nice catch married man and don’t point out these problems to the wife. 9:54 Paul Swydan: the latter, gerald of chitown 9:54 Jeff Zimmerman: Depends if you need the counting stats or the rate stats. 9:54 Chris Cwik: I agree, I guess. 9:54 Comment From neil walkerwhy am i high on most sites rankings? 9:54 Chris Cwik: Lack of other options at your position 9:55 Jeff Zimmerman: He does very little wrong (or great). Steady. 9:55 Comment From zorzoif dunn makes it to 500, does he make the HOF? 9:55 Chris Cwik: Nope. Not a chance 9:55 Paul Swydan: Because he’s good across 4 categoires. Usually. 9:55 Paul Swydan: No on Dunn 9:55 Jeff Zimmerman: No, when was he great. 9:55 Comment From MikeWill Byron Buxton be in the Harper and Trout conversation in 5 years? 9:56 Chris Cwik: I wouldn’t bet on any hitter to do that. 9:56 Paul Swydan: way too early for talk like that 9:56 Comment From zackMore likely to make the hall of fame: Beltre or Beltran? 9:56 Chris Cwik: I really like this question…I’ll say Beltran. 9:56 Jeff Zimmerman: I would take my odds on no. 9:56 Chris Cwik: But more likely, Jeff 9:56 Jeff Zimmerman: Beltran. 9:56 Paul Swydan: beltre 9:57 Comment From Brew CrewEnd of year projections for Jean Segura? 9:57 Paul Swydan: top 5 shortstop 9:58 Chris Cwik: ZiPS says .310/.349/.479. I’ll say lower average 9:58 Jeff Zimmerman: I could see the top 5, but the lack of walks will catch up with him 9:59 Comment From mike,unchainedany chance haren turns it around, or just name value now? 9:59 Chris Cwik: I don’t feel optimistic. 9:59 Paul Swydan: name value 10:00 Jeff Zimmerman: No turn around. 10:00 Chris Cwik: OK. That’s going to do it for us tonight, ladies and gents. Thanks for being here as usual. We’ll be back next week, so make sure you return. We’ll talk soon. 10:00 Paul Swydan: same time next week!