FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/20/17

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Tj: Future for the dodgers and Gonzalez?

Paul Swydan: I don’t think they’ll cut him during the season or anything like that, but I expect they’ll give him plenty of time to rehab.

Paul Swydan: Jeff will be a little late btw.

George: Will Cody bellinger hit 50 homers this year?

Paul Swydan: Going to take the under on that, as much as I love Bellinger.

Matt Adams: Am I actually good?  If I’m still mashing what happens to me when Freddie comes back?

Paul Swydan: You’re not going to take any of Freddie Freeman’s playing time, don’t worry. You’ll share time in an outfield corner or be a PH/DH or something.

Paul Swydan: Or  you’ll be traded.

altitutde: In Dynasty which side you got: Arenado for Lindor/Benintendi

Paul Swydan: Obviously your league dynamics play a role, but I think I take Arenado. Lindor/Benintendi may end up being better all around players than fantasy players.

Paul Swydan: If your league counts OBP though, I may take Lindor/Benintendi.

Schmaltitude: Raimel Tapia seems to have gotten over his initial MLB struggles. Thoughts on his chances to stick around?

Paul Swydan: I think the key here is what the Rockies decide to do with Parra. I think I’d rather have Tapia around, but Parra’s salary is one the Rockies will likely be loathe to eat.

Jake: Nolan Arenado on the road this year has a .56 BB/K, at home it’s .28 BB/K. Is this just the noise that comes with home/road splits or does Arenado have a significantly more patient approach away from the park effects of Coors this year?

Paul Swydan: Well, that would certainly make sense, or vice versa he is more aggressive at home. Same thing. But this doesn’t hold up in his career stats. .49 at home, .38 on the road.

Rasta: Would you be confident using Chris Taylor as a starter in a 12 teamer with 3 OF/no MI spot?

Paul Swydan: I still like him in those leagues, because he can sub in at 2B and 3B when that player is hurt/getting the day off.

Dunkin’ Donuts: What do defensive metrics say about Trea Turner’s defense at shortstop?  Should he be able to stay at the position?

Paul Swydan: He’s playing scratch defense there, which is pretty impressive considering it’s already his third major league defensive position.

Paul Swydan: As for his long-term future, I don’t think they would have moved him there unless they thought he could hold his own there for a few years.

Paul Swydan: Jeff says he

Paul Swydan: ‘ll be here at 9:30 ET.

Smoky Joe Wood: Rusney Castillo is batting .302 with a wRC+ of 130 for Pawtucket. Does this matter? Does anyone care? Should anyone care? If not, is there a point in the season, assuming continued similar performance, at which we should start caring? And finally, would it be bigger news if were Allen Craig were doing it?

Paul Swydan: I think it’s certainly interesting. I don’t know that it should get him a job in Boston, considering the Sox are already well stocked in outfielders, but it would be nice if they could find him a home via trade.

Chin Music: What do you realistically expect from Price from here on out? Can he be a fantasy ace?

Paul Swydan: I’m not expecting him to be an ace this season, in real life or fantasy, no. He’s clearly nibbling right now, and that speaks to a pitcher who doesn’t have the confidence he normally does.

GZA: The 7pm matchups are… uninspiring

Paul Swydan: I almost put a “all these matchups suck” option, but I’m trying to keep it positive.

Ned Yost: The Astros currently have hit the most homeruns and have the lowest strikeout % in MLB this year, and of course have the best wRC+ as well. If they sustain that for the entire season, do they enter the discussion for one of the all time great offenses in recent history?

Paul Swydan: Sure. But there’s a lot of road left between now and October.

Belted: Would the potential haul be worth the fan vitriol if Bobby Evans decided to trade Posey and/or Bumgarner?

Paul Swydan: Posey isn’t going anywhere. He has a full no-trade. Bumgarner can block trades to 8 teams, and he’s hurt, so I doubt he’s going anywhere either. In a vacuum, yes, the vitriol would be worth absorbing if the Giants front office thinks trading them is the right move, but if they were looking to part with them they wouldn’t have given them those no-trade clauses.

Brian Kelder: 10 team obp keeper, worth holding Bregman if I’m in contention or upgrade my pitching with Strauly?  Bregman is on my bench

Paul Swydan: I think it’s OK to drop Bregman. I did.

Jared : Is it time to part with everyone’s favorite chubby cubby kyle In fantasy?

Paul Swydan: If you’re counting on him in the OF or UTIL, then yes. If you have him at C, I think it’s OK to hold. Bar is lower there.

Brian Kelder: Archie Bradley, Devenski, or Betances?  Just some love, have all three.  Made up for poor starters

Paul Swydan: Love all three, but I’ll take Betances.

Big D: Markakis closing in on 2,000 hits. He’s not too old, is 3000 out of the question?

Paul Swydan: I think 3,000 is absolutely out of the question, yes.

Paul Swydan: But hey, only 282 players have gotten to 2,000 hits. That’s a pretty good career.

Zock Jr.: Hey, Guys! Is his Chris Taylor worth my Clint Frazier and a draft pick. I’m desperate at 3rd base 🙁

Paul Swydan: If you’re desperate, that seems OK, yes.

Smoky Joe Wood: I saw very little of Sandoval when he was with the Giants. Did he swing at pitches as far out of the strike zone then as he does now? Was he just better at reaching for those? I’m assuming the latter, since his walk rate is actually a tiny bit better now but his strikeout rate is much, much worse.

Paul Swydan: He did, and he was. He was/is the sort of player who doesn’t have much margin for error, and he gained just enough weight that it threw off his whole game. I think he’s probably done, unless he makes some dramatic changes.

Brad: How pissed was Paul listening to maddon’s explanation of rizzo’s slide?

Paul Swydan: I actually didn’t get a chance to dig in on that, but I likely would have been plenty pissed. 🙂

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Can we have a none of the above option for the best 7pm games? Yikes.

Paul Swydan: Oh Sterling.

Eric: Does anyone have a logical reason for why Amed Rosario is not in the majors? I believe super 2 has passed, Jose Reyes has been bad on both sides of the ball. Why would they not want to likely improve their team?

Paul Swydan: Logic and the Mets are mutually exclusive.

Kevin: (maybe an idea for an article or for Dave or Eric but…) Do you think with the rapid proliferation of infield shifting we will see a re-calibration or re-assessment of the value of each position on the defensive spectrum? For example, is the recent boon of offensively gifted short stops an anomaly or perhaps a symptom of infield play becoming easier, or at the very least requiring less range. Furthermore, could this potentially lead to say Catchers or Centre Fielders becoming more highly valued than Shortstops if it’s determined there is less to be done by way of shifting to affect those positions?

Paul Swydan: I think all of that is fair game, yes. I would think it would affect second basemen more than shortstops, simply because that side of the field is shifted to more frequently.

Ice Cubicle: Cutch really looks good right now. Would you sell him or you think he’s back to that studly behavior? Someone sent me an offer of Chris Archer for him.

Jeff Zimmerman: Hit

Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

Paul Swydan: I think the point is moot. If you can nab Archer, you do it. McCutchen may be back for real, but given the risk that he might not, Archer is a great value for him.

Jeff Zimmerman: The trade is fair. Go ahead if you need pitching and not OF help.

Paul Swydan: Hey Jeff!

Jeff Zimmerman: Hey

Paul Swydan: You got home just in time to see the Sox open up on the Royals! 🙂

Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t even checked the score

Jeff Zimmerman: 2-1 Sox

Paul Swydan: It was 1-1 until 5 minutes ago. Now it’s 4-1 and Strahm is taking an early shower.

StL Steve: You good with trading a late round stud keep (think Betts, Seager, or Machado) for Cano, Encarnacion, Bumgarner, and Chapman? Trying to win this year and this would fill holes. Also have other great keepers.

Jeff Zimmerman: My score keeper must be behind

Paul Swydan: Must be!

Paul Swydan: Hi Steve, I don’t mind that trade, but why Bumgarner? You need to maximize your return if you’re doing that, and he isn’t back for another couple of weeks at least.

Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve done it before and go for the win. Also, this move keeps those players off other teams.

Morris Buttermaker: As regards the all star sp poll. Fans should have a say but a lot is decided by the pitcher in questions schedule for his team.

Jeff Zimmerman: OK

Paul Swydan: Well, I think that would work just like the player vote with DL players. If the No. 1 pitcher isn’t going to pitch, then the No. 2 vote getter pitches, etc. Also, giving the fans more of a say might coerce teams to manage their schedules for the greater good, heaven forbid.

Paul Swydan: MLB allowing teams to torpedo their jewel events is something that should stop happening.

Slurm: This is a pet-peeve of mine, so bare with me. When someone asks an “over/under” question for something like HR’s/SB’s/wins/etc., shouldn’t the over/under be set at a half number (like for wins, 80.5)? For example, I see people ask for an over/under on HR’s and set it at 30. Shouldn’t the over/under be set at 29.5 or 30.5? Thanks for letting me vent.

Paul Swydan: I mean, I suppose if you want to get technical, sure. But it’s late, I don’t want to hold people to those standards. 🙂

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but it just isn’t mportant in the big picture.

Buccos: Zunino legit?

Paul Swydan: Wouldn’t that be wild?

Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll go with no

Paul Swydan: But, alas, I’m not sure I’m buying a guy with a career .260 BABIP suddenly being able to sustain a .380 BABIP.

Smoky Joe Wood: Opponents of the new 2nd-base sliding rule always say that it rewards mediocre fielding and fails to reward old-fashioned excellent footwork. And yet some of the middle infielders injured on slides include those with excellent defensive reputations (e.g. Pedroia). Is it really true that there’s an art to not getting slid into? Doesn’t it depend mostly on the quality of the throw?

Paul Swydan: I think there is an art to it, but sometimes it doesn’t matter how artful you are, you’re going to end up in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Jeff Zimmerman: Some art, some luck like the rest of baseball.

person who exists: Could Tyler Chatwood would be a good free-agent fit for the Cubs?

Paul Swydan: No, I’d think they’d prefer to sign good pitchers.

Jeff Zimmerman: No, they can do better

Nick: If Kenley Jansen walks nobody this season is he a legit Cy Young candidate?

Paul Swydan: Not for the top spot, but I might list him down ballot.

Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll get a good number of votes but not the top guy

Nickles: Article today titled Kershaw’s Got a Homerun problem, but isn’t the story that the league has the problem?

Paul Swydan: Well, it’s not necessarily a problem for every pitcher, so no. I mean, homers are obviously up, but I think we hold Kershaw to a higher standard.

Jeff Zimmerman: The league’s issue can be seen in Kershaw. And if Kershaw is struggling, then what is everyone else doing

Tor: Do you like the Rockies or Dbacks better rest of season?  Seems the Dbacks have better underlying stats, per BaseRuns, but the Rockies have Gray returning and a deeper farm system from which to deal for improvements.

Jeff Zimmerman: Rockies, mainly based on the ability to make a trade to improve

Paul Swydan: I think it comes down to the rotation. A lot of the Rockies SPs don’t have FIPs to match their ERAs, but a guy like Freeland is actively trying to get ground balls, which FIP isn’t necessarily going to pick up.

Paul Swydan: And yeah, the Rockies have a better farm system.

Kevin: any thoughts on Francisco Mejia

Jeff Zimmerman: He should be good but haven’t seen him in person to have an educated opinion.

Paul Swydan: I think he’s a beast, but Cleveland seems stubbornly committed to Roberto Perez and his 20 wRC+. Hopefully Mejia can force a late August call up and get himself into the playoff picture.

Paul: What’s the difference between Lamb and Sano? Very similar so far, with points to Lamb for K rate and a more sustainable BABIP. And yet, ROS projections favor Sano.

Jeff Zimmerman: Previous production?

Paul Swydan: Sano is doing it in a harder offensive environment, hence the gap in wRC+. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&…

Paul Swydan: But in fantasy, you don’t need to care about that.

Jon: Can someone physically tie Jeff Bridich to the ground or something every time he tries to open the checkbook? Most time he spend money in FA, it’s been mostly crap (Outside Holland)

Paul Swydan: I think much of that is a product of the type of player the Rockies are able to compete for in free agency. Since they’re not able to compete for star players (yet), they are often in that middle class where the success rate is going to be much lower. But I think most Rockies watchers will put up with a Parra or two if it gets them a Holland. 🙂

Jeff Zimmerman: I think he gets opportunities to spend so when he does, it makes a splash

Kevin: who would you rather have for fantasy, Francisco Mejia or Amed Rosario?

Paul Swydan: I was recently faced with this decision in the Ottoneu staff league, where I had Gleyber, Rosario and Mejia. I traded Rosario, because I just don’t have any faith in the Mets being able to do the right thing.

Jeff Zimmerman: Rosario, I believe he’s the more talented player

Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

Cubbo: Do the cubs suck?

Paul Swydan: No.

Jeff Zimmerman: no

Paul Swydan: But at this point, it’s safe to say the starting rotation is a problem. They have Arrieta and Lester and still rank 17th in SP WAR.

Ruin Tomorrow Jr.: The Phillies currently are in a dark period obviously, but what do you think are the biggest problems facing them at the moment?

Paul Swydan: I think the biggest problem is that their prospects are simply not panning out as expected, and as such their rebuild may be delayed indefinitely. That’s a bitter pill to swallow, because they acquired a lot of premium talent to get to this stage, and for most/all of them to fall apart is not something you would anticipate. Perhaps their Farm Director needs to go, but I don’t know enough to say that concretely.

Jeff Zimmerman: They don’t know which free agents to buy to the possible holes in the lineup

Smoky Joe Wood: As a fan, I’d rather the team I root for do what’s in their interest (which in my case might mean pulling Sale or Kimbrel, though I assume that would not please Mr. and Mrs. Fox) and not what’s in MLB’s interest.

Paul Swydan: Right, so would every fan base, which is why MLB doesn’t put their foot down. But if it continues, the game will just drift further into irrelevance, which is a shame, since it’s the only major sports game that is played for an entire week.

Paul Swydan: So at some point, MLB needs to lay down the law. They already gave everyone an extra day off after the game to let pitchers recover.

Jeff Zimmerman: Pass

martin: I saw a post earlier on twitter about how Kimbrels season as has been up to part with Gagne’s Cy Young Season . Thoughts? Are Jansen and Kimbrel the best two closers in the game right now? Can they keep this up? Any possibility they win the Cy Young?

Paul Swydan: I think at this moment, they’re the two best, but that could change rapidly. I don’t think they should win the Cy Young right now, but who knows what the rest of the season will bring. Maybe the 10 best SPs in each league will burn their pitching arms in a really localized grease fire.

Jeff Zimmerman: The probably can’t keep it up and again, they won’t win the Cy Young

JK: Is it very sad to roster Matt Albers in a 10-team league?

Paul Swydan: It’s probably sadder for the Nationals than it is for you, but yes, that’s mildly depressing for everyone outside of the Albers family.

Jeff Zimmerman: He was never going to keep the closer’s role

slowdive: The galactic megastars want to play us in a single elimination game. If they win, they will destroy the planet. We can pick nine players of any era to start for the earth all-stars. Who is the starting pitcher? I say, Pedro c. 1997-99. Who you got?

Jeff Zimmerman: If they are left handed, it will be Randy  Johnson.

Paul Swydan: Definitely Pedro. Second pick would probably be Maddux. Both of them have the ability to change his game plan to keep the Megastars guessing and the excellent, diverse repertoire to make it work.

WILSON CONTRERAS: Would you which side do you prefer Lindor Trout Lamb or Harper Bryant Correa

Paul Swydan: The Harper/Bryant/Correa side.

Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

Paul Swydan: Tough to make me pick the non-Trout side!

The Initials: Starting Lineup of AJ Reed, DJ LeMaheiu, JJ Hardy, TJ Rivera, AJ Pollock, BJ Upton,  JD Martinez, JT Realmuto.  Rotation of AJ Griffin, JA Happ, RA Dickey, JT House, JC Ramirez.  Smattering of Relivers like AJ Ramos, JJ Hoover, JT Chargois.  Bench with JP Crafword and JT Riddle, CJ Cron at DH as its an AL team coached by AJ Hinch.  Playoff Contender?

Paul Swydan: The pitching staff is a little light to be a true contender, but I love this concept!

Jeff Zimmerman: No idea, depends on so many external factors.

curious student: What did you guys study in school? And how do you feel that prepared you for your current job? Did you ever consider doing something different as a career?

Paul Swydan: I studied marketing. I definitely did not think this would be my career. I fell into it when I was a marketing intern for Baseball Prospectus. I don’t really think my marketing degree prepared me for being a writer or editor, but I think it helps with some of the other aspects of FG’s business.

Jeff Zimmerman: Nuclear propulsion and geography.  The Navy thought me how to deal with idiots. Some stats in geography, Otherwise, nothing

Paul Swydan: Nothing is also the amount of time left in this chat. Thanks, as always, for hanging out. Next week the chat will either be postponed to Wednesday or cancelled altogether. Next Tuesday I’ll be at Fenway getting my Manny bobblehead. 🙂

Paul Swydan:

Jeff Zimmerman: Bye

Paul Swydan: Until next time!