FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/2/15

by Paul Swydan

June 2, 2015

6:02	Paul Swydan: Hi!

6:03	Paul Swydan: 9 pm ET, just me tonight. Get your questions in. See you soon!

6:18	Paul Swydan: Just want to note quickly here that Andrew Cashner was the 45th pitcher ever to allow at least 11 hits and strike out at least 12 batters in a game last night, but became the FIRST to do so in less than five innings. Sort of cool? http://www.baseball-referen…

9:02	Paul Swydan: OK, enough polls, let’s chat!

9:02	Comment From Not Big Trouble in Little China too! Do you think Jose Berrios gets the call any time soon?

9:03

Paul Swydan: Heading into the season, KIley had his present grades as pretty close to his future grades, and he has done nothing but impress thus far. The good news is that the Twins don’t NEED him right now, so they have the luxury of keeping him down another two weeks past the Super 2 deadline. But if he stays hot, I would expect him soon thereafter.

9:03	Comment From hscer “It’s a trap!” – Admiral Ackbar on Stephen Strasburg

9:04	Paul Swydan: Looks like it could be a lost year. Good thing the Nats have depth.

9:05	Comment From JJB Did the Phillies just miss their best chance to unload Ryan Howard? Even if they ate all the $ and expected the most minimal prospect in return, they had a better chance of getting that last week than they ever will, right?

9:05	Paul Swydan: As long as he doesn’t fall on his face between now and the end of July, the good buzz from this hot start should carry over enough that they should be able to move him.

9:05	Comment From JJB 10 team NL only – how much longer do I hold onto Mike Leake. I can’t take it anymore!

9:06	Paul Swydan: You have my permission to drop him!

9:06	Comment From hscer I have 19 columns (not counting Season and Team) on my custom dashboard. Without knowing what they are, is that probably too cluttered?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Nah, I’ve gone that deep.

9:07	Paul Swydan: My rule of thumb is I try to keep the little icon viewable, so at least I know which page I’m on.

9:07	Comment From 64 Miller Lites What do you expect from Ubaldo Jimenez going forward? Steamer and Zips don’t have him doing much, but his SIERA, xFIP, FIP and K-BB% have him as a top 30 starter.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Yeah, the thing about Ubaldo is that he gets in these grooves. Sometimes good, sometimes bad, but when he’s in either kind, it can last a long time. I expect him to be good ’til the ASB, and then we’ll see about the second half.

9:08	Comment From Sal Hi Paul, moved Cargo for Gio. Minor coup or major one?

9:08	Paul Swydan: If your league counts ERA, a minor one. If not, a major one.

9:08

Comment From RISP In Peace
I have a question that I’ve been pondering for quite some time. For the STL Redbirds, with Adams being out would they ever consider moving Holliday to first? He’s not a disaster out in left, but with age and his want to play till he’s 40, was it? Keep him fresh and allow them more of a chance to play Grichuk/Bourjos which Matheny, and rightfully so, enjoys having his bat and defense in the field. Just a thought, maybe out of the box, but it’s plausible right?

9:09	Paul Swydan: It’s plausible, but I feel like once that cat is out of the bag, there’s no going back. So them doing that depends on their 2016 views on Adams. If they want him back at first, then no dice. If they’re punting on Adams long-term, then OK.

9:10

Comment From Andrew
Do you think the Astros starting pitching will be able to continue pitching this well throughout the remainder of the season if the or at least enough to hold off the Angels assuming they don’t make any trades? In my opinion I don’t think their starting pitching is as proven as the Angels and will be one of the main reasons they don’t win the division.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Since the start of 2014, the difference in Astros and Angels SP WAR is 1. So, I’m not sure I share that viewpoint. http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:12	Comment From Pale Hose Hey Paul. Any idea as to why teams travel immediately after night games instead of waiting until the next morning. I think travel fatigue would be lessened after a proper night sleep and it still leaves enough time to get to the ballpark early.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Because guys would a) probably just go out and party and/or b) they would never show up on time.

9:13	Comment From Pale Hose Also, as a PSA, Silicon Valley is the funniest show on television. Everyone should watch it!

9:13	Paul Swydan: What channel/service?

9:14	Comment From Shawn 10 team roto, is Bryant and Rizzo fair for Goldy and Arenado? Or do I need to throw in Billy Hamilton?

9:14	Paul Swydan: That’s a pretty fair deal. Throwing in Hamilton tips the scales too far.

9:14	Comment From IA Wilmer Flores finishes the 2015 season amongst the top 3 ML shortstops by WRC+. True or False?

9:14	Paul Swydan: False.

9:14	Comment From Mid-Rounder Hi Paul, hope you’re well. Can you rank and tell me some thoughts on the following very similarly ranked outfielders? Trying to decide is giving me a headache! Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Harrison and Christian Yelich.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I am, thanks! http://www.fangraphs.com/le… At the beginning of the year, I would have said Yelich, but he’s been hurt and is striking out too much. I don’t trust Zimmerman to stay healthy, so that leaves Harrison, who gets the positional flexibility, which is a nice bonus.

9:17	Comment From Dave+in+London In an 11-team, AL only 4×4 league, should I expect a major haul (top SP and top hitter, or 2 top SPs) for M. Semien ($6 next year)? Or should I lower my expectations?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I would lower my expectations but still shoot for the major haul. SS in the AL are pretty bleak.

9:18	Comment From Dylan Who do you have in the AL East? Tampa seems to have the pitching unlike the rest of the division, but I don’t trust their offense. Thoughts?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I said the Sox in the beginning of the year and I’ll stick with them, since their biggest problem is themselves. Maybe Farrell will even learn how to tactically manage a baseball game. Stranger things have happened, I suppose.

9:19	Comment From Stevolatte Hi Paul! You had ranked Marcus Semien 8th amongst 2nd basemen ROS. Because of his recent slump, he got dropped in my 12 mixed league. Should i really jump to drop Neil Walker for him?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Had I? OK! RoS depth charts projections has Walker at .334 wOBA, and Semien at .316, so no, I’d stick with Walker.

9:20	Comment From Randy What does a Todd Frazier contract look like?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Whatever it is, I would hope he’d be smart enough to sign it with another team.

9:21	Comment From Rabid Rabbit Gerrit Cole. The dude is really turning it on as of late. Is he a top 10 starting pitcher right now?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Maybe. I have to say, I came away feeling nothing but impressed with him after reading Big Data Baseball. Looks like his dad helped groom him the right way (ie, didn’t let him pitch year round).

9:22	Comment From Abe Will my baby ever sleep?

9:22	Paul Swydan: YES! PROMISE!

9:22	Comment From hscer Some time last year MLB.com stopped posting video of the walk-off calls by the losing team’s broadcasts. This is a big loss for everyone and they should bring them back soon, right?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Eh, I don’t know about big loss, but I did enjoy them. Did Budweiser stop sponsoring those videos?

9:23	Comment From Ryan Do you like Pederson or Bryant for NL ROY?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Oh it’ll be Bryant.

9:23	Comment From JOEY GALLO HEY HOW BOUT SOME JOEY GALLO TALK WOOOOO

9:23	Comment From JOEY GALLO JO-EY! GAL-LO!

9:23	Comment From Ikura Joey Gallo!

9:24	Paul Swydan: Four RBI in your first game? Go ‘head, son!

9:25	Comment From rustydude In an AL only league where a player needs to sit for 7 days after being removed, would you remove Gallo after tonight considering he’d go up against 2 lefties on next 2 days, Sale and Rodon?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I mean, where’s the fun in that? Ya, probably.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Someone in the queue is really excited about Joey Gallo. Easy tiger.

9:26	Comment From hscer “No” voters on the draft – you don’t care if your team has the #1 pick vs. if they have the 25th?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Not everyone needs to care about the draft. I mostly don’t care myself. Partially because MLB does a horrible job of marketing/presenting it, and partially because we won’t know which of these guys is really good until they have a year or so of pro ball under their belts.

9:27	Paul Swydan: I would definitely care more if they marketed it better. Hence the standalone poll question. You’re all horrible marketers, btw.

9:27	Comment From Mike Kang or Aybar ROS?

9:27	Paul Swydan: ALL HAIL PRESIDENT KANG!

9:28	Comment From Michael Who should be removed from the Red Sox rotation to bring them back to 5 starters and why is it going to be Steven Wright instead?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Kelly. And hopefully it won’t, but if it is, it’s because all Farrell will remember is the two homers allowed to Hamilton.

9:28	Comment From Sugar Ray Is Michael Pineda a top-10 pitcher in dynasty leagues?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I want to see some more before I call him definitively top 10 moving forward, but he’s at least in the conversation at this point.

9:29	Comment From hscer Yo, Max Scherzer, that’s Kevin Pillar you’ve allowed 2 homers to. Not Millar.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Either is bad.

9:29	Comment From Cody I’m a college student who loves baseball analytics and my dream is to one day work within the realm of data. Do you any advice for classes to look into, or who I can connect to to learn more about it?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I think you should look into coding and data science in general. At least two of the job postings I’ve had on the site recently are for those types of positions – no, three, Rockies, Twins and Dodgers. As for connecting, not really sure. Your peers, I suppose.

9:31	Comment From The Keeper and the Stream Which Clegane boy would be a better hitter? I feel like the Mountain would have a killer slugging percentage, but the Hound would hit for a better average because of his shorter stroke.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Is this a stupid Game of Thrones question? Pass. I don’t need any Lord of the Rings rip-offs in my life.

9:32	Comment From Aaron Sele Thoughts on ‘Surf’?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Excellent so far. My only beef is there are a couple of songs with like 1-2 swears and I wish they weren’t there so I could play them in front of the kids.

9:32	Comment From ryN Fiers looked pretty good last night, think he will be startable the rest of the season or keep him in the streaming pool?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Streaming pool

9:33	Comment From Tom What has happened to Boston’s offense; and if Ortiz continues to look cooked (esp against lefties) should they consider DH Hanley some (part time)?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Ortiz gets a pass for another month. Then we’ll have that talk. As for what happened – it seems like the answer is Hanley Ramirez’s attitude is what happened. But we’ll see. Long season ahead.

9:34	Paul Swydan: And Tom Caron just made a “Sox undefeated in June” joke. Except he wasn’t joking because he’s a moron.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Normally I would have changed the channel immediately after the last out so I wouldn’t have to listen to him, but since I’m chatting I let it slide. See the sacrifices I make for you people? 😛

9:35	Comment From Eager Seager Beaver Care to comment on the probability of Corey Seager displacing Jimmy Rollins and/or finding a way on to the major league roster before September?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I think if it happens, it’ll be one of those August 30th sort of things – ie, for show just before the deadline to let everyone know he can play in the postseason. By then, the team will have had time to work those “Rollins ready to be a mentor” stories through the press, etc, etc.

9:36	Comment From Michael Alex Speier isn’t a moron, yet this is what he tweeted: “Red Sox with their second 1-0 win of the year, tied for the most 1-0 wins in the big leagues.”

9:36	Paul Swydan: Well that is at least something I didn’t know.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Also, Alex is the best. Subscribe to his newsletter.

9:37	Comment From Not Big Trouble in Little China too! Who is more likely to keep up their play Burns or Maybin?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Maybin if only because Burns may lose time if/when Crisp comes back.

9:37	Paul Swydan: OK, I can’t take it anymore. Hold on, I need to find the remote.

9:39	Comment From hscer Sigh…this local ad keeps playing that still says “the recent health law won’t take effect until at least 2014”

9:39	Paul Swydan: Now that’s funny.

9:39	Comment From Tom Beaver Dodgers seem intent and optimistic on Seager being their SS of the future, despite some thinking he would outgrow the position (and LA having an equally huge long term hole at 3B). Do you see him as a SS for more than a year or two?

9:40

Paul Swydan: We seem to get these questions about shortstops a lot. I remember having the same discussion about Tulo back in 2006 when he came up. We’ve had the same discussions about Xander, who is leagues better defensively this year.

Seager is a shortstop until he’s not a shortstop. You have to give him a year or two to prove he either can or can’t play there.

9:41	Paul Swydan: If his future is 3B, so be it, but you can’t just move him to 3B now before he even gets a chance to show what he can do at SS.

9:42	Comment From Raffy We all ogle at Aroldis Chapman’s ability to produce swings and misses, but did you know Brad Lidge was MUCH better at this? Look at this comparison:

9:42	Comment From Raffy RE: Chapman v. Lidge. Chapman ’14: 56.9 Contact%, 47.4 Swing%, 43 Zone%, 20.2 SwSt% Lidge ’04: 50.5 Contact%, 51.9 Swing%, 53.1 Zone%, 25.1 SwSt%. Lidge received more swings and misses despite hitters being more selective with their swings and despite throwing more strikes.

9:42	Paul Swydan: That’s two isolated seasons though.

9:44	Paul Swydan: For their careers, their SwStr% is the same: http://www.fangraphs.com/le… And I would expect Chapman to move above Lidge more significantly in the future. Was a lot closer than I would have guessed though!

9:44	Comment From Bigglesworth Is there a package the Dodgers could put together without Seager or Urias to get Hamels or Cueto ?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Probably, yes. Particularly Cueto, who may be hurt and is in his last year.

9:44	Comment From Steve Favorite stadium?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Coors Field. I’d love to say Fenway Park, but you’re cramped in there like sardines in any part of the park except for the bleachers and the Monster seats.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Also, baseball is played in a ballpark. Football is played in a stadium.

9:46	Comment From hscer He probably won’t be, but if Ian Desmond is hitting .246/.294/.382 at the end of the year, um…5/$75M?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Well like you said, he probably won’t be. Also, remember that Elvis Andrus contract?

9:46	Comment From Eager Seager Beaver Feel like giving a dude a free Fangraphs t-shirt just because? I mean, not to set a bad precedent, but you know, I could use a free t-shirt. Just sayin.

9:47	Paul Swydan: I don’t, because I don’t have any stock on hand. If I did, maybe.

9:47	Comment From STS Not true. Bush Stadium

9:48	Paul Swydan: The Yankees and Cardinals are not my supervisor!

9:48	Comment From Aaron Sele What would you recommend for an itinerary for a couple days in Denver?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Well, I would definitely go to Red Rocks for a hike and/or concert. I would definitely try to hit up some bars in LoDo. Other than that, I dunno. I’m not a very good tour guide, but the good thing about Denver is that everything is awesome.

9:49	Comment From Rabid+Rabbit Ever been to Camden Yards? Everyone I have talked to says it is their favorite ballpark.

9:49	Paul Swydan: I haven’t. Nor PNC Park. Nor AT&T Park. So I’m not as qualified to answer that question as I’d like to be. But such is life.

9:50	Comment From Definitely Not Bob Uecker How much better would players perform if they wore tactical turtlenecks – tactlenecks – instead of jerseys?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Boom. https://s-media-cache-ak0.p…

9:50	Comment From hscer We heard very much in passing about a DC Fangraphs meetup in one of Dave’s chats a while back. Any more developments?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Oh, ya, we have a date and a location. I’ll get with Dave this week and we’ll start publicizing it. Thanks for the reminder.

9:51	Comment From Definitely Not Bob Uecker Sploosh.

9:52	Paul Swydan: And whatever the equivalent of sploosh is for me, which I guess is also sploosh.

9:52	Comment From Guest Is the potential rivalry and home run battles between Stanton and Harper being overlooked?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Battles, maybe. Rivalry? Meh.

9:52	Comment From Chris Can’t blame Steve about the stadium comment when there are teams calling their ballparks, Busch, Dodger and finally Yankee Stadium.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Well, I CAN blame him, and it’s my chat, so zip it!

9:52	Comment From Jose Is Strasburg on the DL so he can fix himself or legit hurt? Either way, is it reasonable to expect him to get back to fantasy ace form? Top 15 SP?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I would assume legit hurt. And no, I would not expect that at all. If you can sell someone else on that dream though, trade him before he gets off the DL.

9:53

Comment From Jake
If you were the Dodgers’s GM, would you be willing to be a “seller” at the deadline and move someone like Ethier for prospects? Obviously the Dodgers could use another starting pitcher, but any team looking to move a veteran starter won’t want a veteran hitter in return. With such a log jam, even a productive Ethier doesn’t provide much value when you have Puig, Pederson, Van Slyke, Guerrero, Crawford….

9:54	Paul Swydan: I disagree. If you’re the Dodgers, you’re thinking World Series, and there is where having that extra valuable/productive hitter comes in handy. I see no reason to trade Ethier, unless like you said it gets them the starter they need. I think they’ll find one cheaper than that though.

9:54	Comment From Sauceman Hey Paul, apparently Matz is being preserved in Las Vegas for an eventual call-up. Would you grab him now in a limited 3 keeper league, and drop one of either Fiers, Folty or Chavez, or sit tight. 12 team league, thanks u da man!

9:55

Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t think I would worry too much about picking up Matz, but you’re unlikely to miss any of those guys too much, so I guess it doesn’t hurt to prepare in advance. In general though, I wouldn’t make speculative moves based on what the Mets are supposed to do, since the Mets never know what they’re doing.

9:56	Comment From Tom Didi Gregorious – Future SS? below average platoon SS? Eventual really good backup utility infielder?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’ll say just utility infielder. Not sure he holds down a major league job for a long time.

9:56	Comment From Stevolatte Don’t post this, but I incorrectly saw Paul in the Rotograph rankings and confused you with Paul Sporer. SORRY!

9:57	Paul Swydan: Don’t feel bad, one of my best friends did the same thing earlier this week.

9:57

Comment From Matt
Hanley’s defense in just 48 games, he appears to be roughly an awful play or missed play from from generating more negative value thus far in LF than the negative value from his ENTIRE career as a SS that includes 2007 that sits in club with Ranger gritty unofficial mascot Micheal Young and Jeter among worst defensive SS season of all time. Is he the only player you can think of that somehow got worse defensively moving from one of the hardest positions to the one of the easiest?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I mean, right now in this moment, yes, but that’s only because it’s nearly 10 pm and I’m exhausted. I’m sure there are plenty of others.

9:58	Comment From Guest It was thrown around in the offseason, but given how the season in going…Betts for Sonny Gray: Who says no?

9:58	Paul Swydan: No question the A’s say no right now.

9:58	Comment From Eager Seager Beaver I spent most of my free agent budget already in a keeper league…How much more valuable is an $11 Joey Gallo than a $4 Corey Seager?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I don’t think he’s more valuable at all, I’d rather have Seager.

9:58	Comment From Tom Would Garret Jones makes sense for the Cardinals? Not sure what they would have to give up but I can’t imagine it would be much

9:58	Paul Swydan: He could definitely make sense for them, sure.

9:59	Comment From Anthony Clay Bucholz another gem tonight. Can I start trusting him now?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Trusting Clay Buchholz is a fools errand, but I’m cautiously optimistic right now.

9:59	Comment From Hank Could Texas be stealth players for either Hamels or Cueto… would one be enough for them to contend for the division this year?