FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/25/13

by Paul Swydan

June 25, 2013

6:29

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Join me, and possibly Chris and Jeff, tonight. The Rockies are in town, but Will Middlebrooks is not. Other things are happening too. Maybe Ricky Nolasco will be on the move tonight. Who knows.

Come back and join me tonight at 9 pm ET and we’ll find out together. Until then, get in your questions, and I’ll get up some polls! (see polls at bottom of transcript)

9:01	Paul Swydan: Let’s light this candle!

9:01	Comment From Sam Obviously he is considered a great player but do you think David Wright is underdiscussed for a player that was 5th in fWAR last year and is top 10 this year (3rd in rWAR)?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I think it’s pretty rare for a NY-based player to be under-talked about, and I don’t think that David Wright qualifies. Sorry, Sam.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Possibly, it would help if the Mets were winning.

9:02	Comment From Electric Currently have Gyorko, Kemp, Reyes, & Bucholz on the DL. These guys should all be back fairly soon and I have some tough decisions. Will need to drop two of the following: MMontero Grandal Andrus Profar(in a keeper league) Lester or Leake. Gracias!

9:03	Paul Swydan: I would cut one of the catchers and then Andrus or Lester, but the only one I would DEFINITELY hang on to is Profar.

9:03	Paul Swydan: I probably cut Montero and Lester.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Grandal and Montero

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Lester is a definite candidate, Paul should hopefully have something on him soon.

9:04	Comment From Puig I just thought I should bring this to your attention:

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes we know you are good

9:05	Comment From Puig song alert! http://puigdestroyer.bandcamp.com/track/one-man-five-tools

9:05	Paul Swydan: That’s what I think was supposed to be brought to our attntion.

9:05	Comment From David Homer Bailey or Derek Holland ROS in a 14-team ottoneu?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Bailey for me.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Bailey

9:06	Comment From zack Worse relative to the competition: analyst Harold reynolds or major league player Delmon young?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Reynolds.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Young, I like to laugh at/with Reynolds.

9:07	Comment From Ruki Motomiya What do you make of Ricky Nolasco and the trade rumors? Personally, I hope he goes to the Padres: Seems like a great fit!

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I was kind of amazed he wasn’t traded before the season began. Padres would be OK, but a ton of teams need pitching.

9:08

Paul Swydan: I would love for him to end up on the Padres. I wrote in November that the Padres should have been proactive about upgrading their rotation with short-term fixes so that they were not bogged down when Luebke and the kids were ready. They were sort of with me, except their idea was to keep Volquez and sign Jason Marquis. Not exactly what I had in mind. Nolasco would be a great get for them.

9:08	Comment From redd Is Gio still headed towards being an ace (per FanGraphs profile) or is he going to just end up being pretty good?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’d lean “just” pretty good.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: He needs to find the strike zone before he ever becomes an ace. >10% walk rate won’t cut it.

9:09	Comment From DeepLeaguer Lindor v. Russell. Which one should I target for my fantasy team?

9:10	Paul Swydan: It seems – SEEMS – like Russell will a) come faster and b) has a spot already open for him. So I would target him first, even though Lindor may have the higher ceiling.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I would lean towards Lindor

9:11	Comment From TwinsFan Oswaldo Arcia is like the Jan Brady of fantasy baseball. Why is no one talking about him, and what can we expect from him this year and next?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think it’s because they sent him down after a couple of weeks and people just didn’t notice when he came back up.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: He will have some issue to work through, but is having a decent season.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think the BABIP comes down some, and hopefully the K rate does as well, but it seems like he’s doing exactly what was expected of him by the prospect community. As someone who owns him in two deep leagues, I’m satisfied.

9:13	Comment From Bobcat What tier of SP would you be willing to trade for Trumbo if you needed a 1B and some power? Minor? Miller?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Neither of those guys, no. I’m extremely skeptical of Trumbo and wouldn’t want any part of him until he is consistent for a whole year. Last year his season was like a tale of THREE cities.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Either one if 1B power is what you need. I would be a little hesitant with Miller, so try Minor first.

9:14	Comment From Northsider Do you see the Cubs packaging trade candidates for a larger haul rather than letting individual plays go for lesser prospects?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I think they’ll certainly try that, but ultimately they’ll sell off anything that isn’t nailed down as a future part.

9:15	Comment From North West MBDTF or College Dropout? MBDTF all day, right?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Yeah. I love College Dropout, obviously. Ranking his albums is difficult, because they’re all so good.

9:15	Comment From Sir Waffles What, if any, moves do you see the Diamondbacks making leading up to the trade deadline? Or is getting Hill, Eaton, McCarthy, and Putz back thier “moves”?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Hill will hopefully help a ton.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Also, I see them make a :”big” move to pick up some gritty useless vet Gibson can drool over.

9:17

Paul Swydan: They’re a tough team to figure. They kind of just need the players that they have to play better, because there isn’t a typical hole. You could say they need to consolidate some of their outfielders into one star player, but then, they had that and traded it away, so they obviously don’t agree.

9:17	Comment From Jay How many SP would you rather have in a keeper over Matt Harvey? (Can keep unlimited amount of years, no salary considerations)

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw for sure

9:18	Paul Swydan: Probably five or six. Felix. Verlander. Kershaw. Those three are definites. Probably a couple of others.

9:18	Comment From Pork Sale Does Yu Darvish strike 300 this year?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: No, probably not.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Darvish is another. And, I think we said 10% chance last week, Jeff, ya?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: around there, I should figure out his chances sometime.

9:19	Comment From zack Does Colby Rasmus not suck anymore?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he still does, just enjoy the hot streak.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Well, his BABIP is up considerably. Which means he’s probably hitting the ball harder, which would mean he doesn’t suck anymore. But let’s give it another monto or two just to be sure.

9:20	Comment From zack Will Roy Oswalt have any fantasy value? Obviously he is in Coors, but he did have 11 Ks.

9:21	Paul Swydan: He struck out 11 Nationals, which isn’t as impressive as it sounds.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably with spot starts in a NL only league.

9:21	Comment From Natty Bumpo With Reyes returning, I gotta drop on of the following MIFs: J. Iglesias, N. Franklin, A. Rendon or R. Weeks. I’m leaning towards Weeks. Whaddya think?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Weeks for me.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Weeks

9:22

Comment From stretchfest
FG article idea: “Best Place to Sit at All 30 Stadiums.” Either the best section for each stadium or a series where you list the top 3-5 for each. The view, price, unique stadium features could be factors. A life goal of mine is to see a game at every stadium so a guide like this would be boss. Keep up the great work.

9:23	Paul Swydan: It would be a fun project, but I think it’s very subjective. When I worked at the Rockies, we’d debate “best section to sit in” incessantly.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul, do we send Wiers to Miami to find a seat there?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Hahaha. I don’t think Wiers even gets to go to a major league ballpark. We’ll send him to Toledo.

9:24

Comment From Luis Cruz
My WRC+ is -7 (yes, *negative* seven), which is by far the worst for players with at least 100 PA. My popup rate is insane. In addition, my team (the Dodgers) has perfectly viable 3B/SS options in Juan Uribe, Nick Punto, and Jerry Hairston, Jr. Why do I (a) have 100 PA and (b) even exist in the majors?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Because first impressions linger longest for the unintelligent, and luckily for you, your manager is a moron.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: The Dodgers have no clue how to run a team

9:25	Comment From Adam Do you like Martin Perez as an AL-only option going forward?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I think that’s his ceiling right now, yes.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: yea, but assume his current production may be limited.

9:26	Comment From Paulie Almonds If you had choose either a rhinoceros or a hippopotamus to ride to work on, which would it be?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Rhinoceros, I really don’t want to go to work wet.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Probably the hippo, because that’d mean I’m in a river, and that’d be awesome. Most of the hippo would be underwater, so people would all be like “damn, how is he moving through the water without swimming?” And then they’d start calling me Hippo Jesus and junk.

9:27	Comment From ROCKET J SQUIRREL Roster issue – add Aaron Hill or Ike davis for Headley or Asdrubal Cabrera? Just looking for another home run bat. Thanks.

9:27	Paul Swydan: You shouldn’t want Ike Davis at all.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: No on davis, the other 3 are fairly similar in production right now.

9:29	Comment From Ryan After the trading deadline, the Reds will be enjoying the services of _______ in the bullpen and _______ in Left Field.

9:29	Paul Swydan: same guys as now. Don’t see them making much noise unless it’s to upgrade at SP.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I am with Paul, maybe a team will be able to dump a RP salary on them like the Royals did with Broxton.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Actually, sorry, I forgot about Ludwick being out. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see if they took Soriano’s contract?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Or Francoeur’s

9:31	Comment From Pork Sale Do you think GM’s may start avoiding contracts that go past the age 37 or 38 season? It just seems that there is no way that a guy like Cano will benefit the team he signs with past 4-5 years.

9:31	Paul Swydan: No, not really. I’m sure they would like to, but Cano is going to be holding a hammer akin to Thor’s this offseason if the Yankees let him walk, and I have no doubt that he’ll get the lengthy contract he desires.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I think teams may go with short stints. Another thing to remember is teams make money at the gate and some fans will just go to see certain players like Jeter.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Right. It’s not a coincidence that Jeter and Rivera will be having different “final seasons.”

9:32	Comment From atoms “The Dodgers have no clue how to run a team”. The truth hurts, man. 🙁

9:33	Paul Swydan: NL West was right there for the taking. Yeah, they’ve had some bad injury luck, but who hasn’t? They haven’t even been able to mount a push past Rockies wout Tulo.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: So many wrong decision by the Dodgers starting with the League signing.

9:34	Comment From KD Should I trade J Fernandez for O Tavares or Rebdin for Evreth (keeper league)? Both? One? Neither?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I’m going to guess that “Rebdin” is “Rendon” ??? On each, kind of depends on needs. On ceiling, first question might be wash. On second, really depends on needs. Rendon will have 2B and 3B, but shortstop is always thin, so…

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes for sure on the Taveres trade (if you don’t need Fernandez this season and don’t expect help from Taveres)

9:36	Comment From atoms Starting with the League signing? I think you mean, “starting with the retention of Colletti”.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Good point, I stand corrected.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Also that.

9:37	Comment From Dunx Do you think the Angels will become big sellers this year? The team’s terrible, but the fact that expectations were so high could prevent them from selling off their good pieces.

9:37	Paul Swydan: To which good pieces are you referring?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure who they could trade.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Agreed. Everyone would want Bourjos and Trout, but I wouldn’t trade them. MAYBE they could snooker some team into taking Wilson or Weaver, but I think the word is out on them.

9:38	Comment From Michael Pineda Will I ever be very good like I was supposed to be?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Of course. It’s just what happens with the Yankees. “They can’t keep this up!” Then Pineda comes in and rattles off a 10-0, 2.58 second half. Kill me.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, reports say your fastball is already 2-3 mph slower. It is for sure a wait and see.

9:40	Comment From Hippo Jesus Maria Sharapova or Gwen Stefani ROS?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Wow, tough one. I’ll go with Sharapova just because she’s younger.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Sharapova, not sure what Stefani looks like now.

9:40	Comment From Northsider I drafted Segura as my backup to Starlin in a very deep league. I dropped Segura early due to injuries. Aside from jumping off a cliff, are there any SS prospects to keep an eye out for in the upcoming month or so?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Not that I’m aware of. Maybe Brad Miller with the M’s. Or grab Nick Franklin if he’s available in your league still, since he has SS eligibility (or, he does in Yahoo).

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Derek Jeter?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: It is thin right now.

9:41	Comment From Jordan Zimmermann Am I an ace?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Top 30 pitcher (my definition of an ace), probably.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Asked one of my very smart friends about him the other day, and his response was “maybe he’s turning into Greg Maddux.” Normally, the low K rate would be a bad sign, but this is three straight years with FIP of 3.51 or lower.

9:43	Comment From atoms What the heck has happened to Rick Porcello? He was pitching so well, and then 6 ER his last outing and now 7 ER tonight. Also the strikeouts seem to be declining. Has he turned back into a pumpkin?

9:44	Paul Swydan: He never stopped BEING a pumpkin. He just had a nice little run for awhile.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde more like it.

9:44	Comment From Shark Mapiro Which riot would be worse: Carson Cistulli upon hearing the Indians are moving Kluber to the bullpen, or all of Toronto upon hearing that they will send down Kawasaki?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Don’t mess with Cistulli, is all I’m going to say about that. He knows both of the kinds of hepatitis that Dayn Perry has. That is VALUABLE information.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Both would be awesome.

9:47	Comment From Rick How many years until the Astros can realistically contend for a play off spot?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I’ll say three.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: 2015 may be possible.

9:48	Comment From Matt Harvey Has any other player posed nude in a major magazine and started the ASG in his home park? Didn’t think so.

9:49	Paul Swydan: I don’t know about nude, but Jim Palmer used to do all those Jockey ads in just his tighty whities…

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe FanGraphs should start tracking that stat.

9:49	Comment From Bob In 2019 the Twins will be amazing. True or false?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’ll say false. Hard for a team to be amazing, and unless there are some fundamental shifts in how that team operates, I don’t think I’d ever peg one of their teams to be amazing. “Surprising,” yes. “Delightful,” sure. Amazing? That’s a stretch.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: It may even be earlier than that.

9:51	Comment From zack If Jeff Lunhow is so smart then why hasn’t he removed that stupid hill in centerfield?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I don’t care what anyone says, I love that hill.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: His kids like to run down it.

9:51	Comment From San Diego Padres a) Will we make the playoffs if we deal for a starter

9:52	Paul Swydan: Might need two starters to make me super confident, but seeing as how I’m the only FG’er who pegged them for a playoff spot, I’m obviously on the bandwagon.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t see it right now, probably will be a .500 team and that won’t be enough.

9:54	Comment From Drew Pomeranz Will I ever be good like I was supposed to be?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Doubtful, but let’s see what happens if they finally give you a chance in the second half. Jim Tracy, I believe, demoted you in part because he was desperate to save his job.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I didn’t think you were supposed to be that good.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Also that.

9:55	Comment From zack Padres should deal for Cliff Lee?

9:56

Paul Swydan: Now there’s a thought experiment. I won’t say that they SHOULD deal for him. But obviously they a) have the prospects to get that deal done and b) it would legitimize them immediately and c) it would be fantastic to watch Lee in that ballpark and backed by that offense. I’d be giddy. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I would either do it now or wait. I am not sure Lee is enough to put them over the top.

9:57	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure that he is either. But he would certainly cement them as a team that is not going away. Which right now is more than I can say for the Rockies and possibly the Giants.

9:57	Comment From Swishalishous So, do I just kinda suck now? My wife’s still mad hot!

9:57	Paul Swydan: The shoulder injury is obviously crimping your style, bro.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Kind of sucking and your wife is for sure hot.

9:58	Comment From Adam Is Mike Moustakas a good baseball player at all?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: He can play defense, but is freaking lost at the plate. Any real team would have sent him to the minors like the Mets did with Ike Davis.