FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/25/14

by Paul Swydan

June 25, 2014

6:17	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I’ll be here at 9 pm ET. Jeff might be too, but probably won’t be. Hit me up with questions, and if I survive mowing the lawn, I’ll see you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: I love to see pitchers and umpires engaged in civil conversation. Good times.

9:01	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this.

9:02	Comment From Ben of Pearl River MATT ADAMS. oh wait, questions. MATT ADAMS?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Our man August wrote about Matt today. Def check that out. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:03	Paul Swydan: Myself, I have been pleasantly surprised. I did not see him hitting this well again this season. The defense is simply an added bonus. Good times.

9:03	Comment From Bob Say something nice about Tim Lincecum. Do it! Do it!

9:04	Paul Swydan: Making this list is pretty special.

9:04	Paul Swydan: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/hist…

9:04	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw 100% Hypothetical.. If Mo Rivera decided I want to come back for in 2015 and beyond (emphasis on beyond), and he was open to signing with any team, what kind of contract would you see him get?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Probably not a ton. $5 mill a year as a token sum to avoid embarrassment on his part, but nothing like he used to command.

9:05	Comment From JV Thoughts on Steve Pearce?

9:05	Paul Swydan: He’s no star, but the bat has always been there, the health hasn’t.

9:05	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Would you like it if the MLB AS game added more festivities (like they do in NBA and NHL)?? Like fastest runner around the bases, longest throw (from CF to home), and stuff like that? What competition would you like to see?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Yes, I wrote about this for the ASG program last year in fact. You have to at least start with an outfield throwing accuracy competition. We’d all love watching that.

9:06	Comment From Edge O McAllister sent down. Someone asked Dave this afternoon if Cle. would call up Salazar to take the rotation spot. Carrasco has looked very good out of the pen. Any chance he gets another shot?

9:06	Paul Swydan: There’s always a chance, sure.

9:06	Comment From Ron Swanson Who do you think is the most physically gifted MLB player, as far as pure athletisism (not baseball athlete). I mean NFL combine stuff, 60 Yard Dash, Bench press, Vert, etc…

9:06	Paul Swydan: Gotta be either Trout or Puig.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Maybe Matt Holliday for older guys.

9:07	Comment From JV Better keeper next season Derek Norris at $1 in a 2 catcher OBP league or Sean Doolittle at $10?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Definitely Norris.

9:07	Comment From Jimbo Jones With the upcoming Int. Prospect period looming. What would a 100% raw pitcher who has never thrown in a organized game get for a contract if he was clocked at 100+ MPH on a consistent basis. (lets say he is 6’4, 175 pounds).

9:08	Paul Swydan: I honestly have no clue. If he’s never pitched before though, I’d think he probably doesn’t get more than $500K for a bonus. But I really don’t know, I’m not sure that’s a situation that we’ll get to test out in reality.

9:08	Comment From JV Brock Holt going to lead off the rest of the season? I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop and he keeps hitting

9:09	Paul Swydan: Agreed. But no, I think at some point he’ll go through a slump and will be replaced.

9:09	Comment From NBA Draft You guys interested in me at all? Im Pu-pu-padum-pa-UMP-Pe-De!

9:10	Paul Swydan: I don’t know what that means, but I am excited for you. Chad Ford had Embiid sliding to the Celtics today. That’d be pretty sweet.

9:10

Comment From Cashman Vader
If the yankees do spend about 30 million $$$ on the int. Prospect market this season, and sign 7 out of the top 10 players, would that be enough to move their Farm from the bottom third to top third? (especially considering the addition of Judge, Jag, Clarkin from last year)

9:10	Paul Swydan: Probably not. Guys signed in Latin America don’t seem – keyword SEEM – to influence farm system rankings in the year after a signing as much as draft picks do.

9:11	Comment From Ron Swanson Aubrey Plaza or Rashida Jones?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Don’t make me choose!

9:11	Comment From Edge O Assuming Spring Training battle who is Tigers starting SS next year Suarez or Iglesias?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I would not assume a spring training battle. It’ll be Iglesias’ job.

9:11	Comment From Don I have asked this question in 7 straight chats on Fangraphs with no answer. Maybe it is just a crappy question… But, if it isn’t, do you guys think Machado will the O’s SS next year or will they retain Hardy?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure if they’ll retain Hardy or not, but at this point I think the ship has sailed on Machado playing shortstop.

9:12	Comment From Canada Your Welcome! (for bringing Eugenie Bouchard to the world of tennis)

9:12	Paul Swydan: Uh, OK?

9:12	Comment From Mystery Beast When it comes to bang for your buck, it’s really damn hard to beat the sweet potato.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Important note there from Mystery Beast.

9:13	Comment From Mystery Beast Should I drop the Baez stash in my deep league? The roster spot would get me a non-closer reliever and the occasional matchup.

9:13	Paul Swydan: No, I’d hang onto Baez.

9:13	Comment From AFK What is going on with Dustin Pedroia? Buy low candidate or sell and hope for the best based on name?

9:14	Paul Swydan: We’re now almost three full seasons removed from him being an elite hitter. At this point, a lot of his value is tied up in his defense, so he’s not as valuable in fantasy.

9:15	Comment From Al "4-Touchdowns" Bundy When is the right time to pick up my nephew Dylan Bundy in a long-term keeper league?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Yesterday?

9:15	Comment From Frank Ryan Zimmerman going to get hot and return to form or dead in the water?

9:15	Paul Swydan: He will get hot at some point.

9:16	Comment From Jebb Pujols for Kris Bryant, Roark, and Markakis. Keeper league. Pujols is 33 dollars

9:16	Paul Swydan: Feel like the best player in that deal is Kris Bryant. If you’re dealing Pujols, do it in a heartbeat. Though I don’t love Markakis.

9:17	Comment From Shark Watch Blue Jays still the loudest team for Samardzija’s market? Do you like him if he goes there? What other destinations can you see happening… best, worst?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I dunno. I feel like the Blue Jays would feel awfully silly for getting him now when they could have got him in the offseason. I think the Dodgers make sense, as do the Angels. The Mariners don’t make a ton of sense, but I could also see that happening.

9:18	Comment From Mookie Jar Victorino is being shut down again. Does this shorten Mookie’s clock, or will the Sux look outside the organization?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Probably neither. They’ll probably just keep running Bradley out there until Mookie is deemed ready.

9:18	Comment From The Long View If you had Buxton and could keep him until he retires for only the cost a roster spot, what would it take for you to trade/release him?

9:18	Paul Swydan: A ton.

9:19	Comment From Claudio his Sonny Gray for my Nelson Cruz…H2H points league…Should i take it?! or should i try to get more out of him?!

9:19	Paul Swydan: Well, ALWAYS try to get more. But yes, I’d do that deal. I don’t see this as a career renaissance from Cruz, more like a last good peak year.

9:19	Comment From JH I traded for Jay Bruce at the start of the season… ugh. What do you project ROS?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Better, but not better enough for you to not regret making the deal. Sorry.

9:20

Comment From Prankees
How can the Yankees look their fans in the eyes throwing Ichiro and his 1-4, 1-3 (all singles) out there vs RHP, like the platoon actually works? Aren’t they better off just letting Fonzy get comfy and pop out 20+ HR? It’s bad enough they have to put Jeter out there, let alone bat him second… come on Yanks, really?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Whenever Girardi does stuff like this, I assume there is more to it than meets the eye. Doesn’t make it right though.

9:20

Comment From Matt
Is Puig being overrated? I realize he’s a very good player and is very exciting to watch, but I feel like he’s not as good (yet) as lots of people are starting to claim. He was solid but not amazing in April, crazy ridiculously good in May, and been just terrible so far in June. I feel like people are still riding high off his amazing May and not realizing the closest thing we’ve seen to the real Puig this season had been the Puig of April.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Even with the slump, he ranks in 10th in wRC+ over the past calendar year. http://www.fangraphs.com/le… No, I don’t think he’s overrated.

9:22	Comment From Pat So if you say Def do you also say Tots?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think it’s totes, actually.

9:22	Comment From Meano Eno What do the Red Sox do with Peavy?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Tell him to not let the door hit him on the ass on the way out of town.

9:22	Comment From Patrolman Mancuso When do you see the Cubs becoming a playoff-caliber team? Their focus on hitting in recent drafts sure looks prescient.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Just as soon as they get some pitching. Still baffled their ownership wouldn’t pony up for Tanaka.

9:23	Comment From Crunchy Carl Why does Dave think Kombucha is a hot drink?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Probably because he’s never had it before, and because it was mentioned in conjunction with two other hot drinks. This was my assumption as well. Is it not a hot drink?

9:24

Comment From Forsyth
When a player overslides a bag, why is he not awarded that base? For example, if a player hits a ball to LF, tries to stretch it into a double, reaches second base but then gets tagged out after accidentally sliding past the bag, he’s given a single? Same thing with a stolen base ruled as a caught stealing. The player has reached the base safely and then subsequently left the base. Makes no sense.

9:25	Paul Swydan: I think it makes perfect sense. It can’t be ruled a double until time is called, or the umpire issues a ruling. Since neither of those things have happened when he makes initial contact with the bag, he can’t be awarded a double. Sad but true.

9:25	Comment From A polar bear What’s the rawest food you ever ate?

9:25	Paul Swydan: My friends and I had these really bad mint juleps in Charleston last year. They literally had dirt in them. It was pretty gross.

9:26	Comment From Tim Lincecum Guess I shouldn’t have switched dealers back in 2010, eh?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I’M FREAKIN’ OUT, MAN!!!!

9:26	Comment From Jared If you needed pitching in 5×5, would you trade Stanton for Price + Cespedes or Sale + K. Davis? Thanks!

9:26	Paul Swydan: Ugh, neither. You should be able to do better than that for Stanton.

9:27	Comment From Matt Quick fantasy question. Different players but who provides more overall value in a 5X5 roto league ROS: Anthony Rizzo or Jose Reyes?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Reyes on the positional scarcity.

9:27	Comment From Guest Any sign of Hosmer turning things around or just beating more balls in the ground? Time to drop him in 12 team leagues

9:28	Paul Swydan: It’s been awhile since I was a believer in Hosmer. I would have no problem dropping him.

9:28	Comment From Crunchy Carl No! It’s a delightfully fermented tea, tastes something like apple champagne. Best served quite cold.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I’m not going to lie to you, that doesn’t sound all that appealing to me.

9:28	Comment From Adam How good is Corey Dickerson ROS? Dude is crushing the ball.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Indeed! Hopefully they just keep playing him, but they seem hell bent on rotating guys.

9:29	Comment From Rated Rookie Kombucha tastes like phys ed in drink form.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Now that’s funny.

9:29	Comment From Abelmans Dry Goods does it make sense for the Mariners to trade Taij if they can get Price / Lester / Shark?

9:29	Paul Swydan: It doesn’t, no, but that might not stop them.

9:29	Comment From Bradley does US soccer team make it to the knock out round?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Oh, that reminds me.

9:31	Paul Swydan: For the record, I have my hopes incredibly up at this point. I think that the US wins the game tomorrow outright.

9:31	Comment From Catoblepas Odds that JBJ succeeds in the next ~2 years? Success defined as 2-WARish

9:33

Paul Swydan: I think he can be a two-win guy if he’s leveraged properly – he seems completely incapable of hitting soft stuff. So if he’s used against hard throwers only, I could see a two-win season. He’s still been worth 0.6 WAR already this year just for his D. Two wins is probably his ceiling though. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

9:33	Comment From Deep Thoughts Speaking of Kris Bryant, should he be rostered in a 15 teamer with CI… will he be better than Plouffe upon his arrival? (strikeouts matter)

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yes, I’d wager that he will be.

9:34	Comment From Mike What is your go-to strategy if your team’s hitting is great but ERA and WHIP are holding you back in the standings? Thanks!

9:35	Paul Swydan: Generally speaking, I’d want to find an offensive position where I have surplus, or a player whose reputation outstrips his value, and deal that player(s) for the pitching I need.

9:35	Comment From The Ghost of Timo Perez Braun for Price straight up. Do I aim higher if I really need an ace?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:35	Comment From Forsyth If the Sox did decide to move Lester, what kind of return could they get for him? Looking at the Garza deal netting CJ Edwards and Mike Olt, could the Sox come down with a Seager-type player?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I think the Garza deal is a nice comp. I’d hope they could do better, since Lester is a better pitcher, but he’s about to be a free agent, so expectations obviously have to be tempered.

9:36	Comment From Phil Redraft ROS – Betts or Wong?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Betts. Wong isn’t a viable fantasy player for me in any format other than a deep, NL only league.

9:37	Comment From Michael Is Charlie Morton more than a streamer in 12 team leagues?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Probably not in the long-term, no.

9:37	Comment From Meat H. THIS ISN’T SOCCERGRAPHS.COM

9:38	Paul Swydan: Lighten up, Francis.

9:38	Comment From Forsyth JBJ already is at a 0.6 WAR, gaining 1.4 over the 2nd half isn’t unreasonable at all if he makes a few adjustments.

9:38	Paul Swydan: It isn’t, but I wouldn’t hold my breath either.

9:38	Comment From Ignatius Who starts the All Star Game for the AL? Asking for King Felix’ biggest fan!

9:39	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, who starts these days is less a function of who deserves to start and who is allowed by their team to start. A lot of teams will throw their ace the Sunday before the game because that now automatically rules them out of the ASG. It’s pathetic, but it happens.

9:39	Comment From Hopeful fan I answered the poll question first and chose a tie. I just want them to advance dammit!

9:39	Paul Swydan: Agreed. I am scared of neither Belgium nor Algeria.

9:39	Comment From Claudio rank adam jones, hunter pence, alex rios ROS

9:39	Paul Swydan: Pretty much like that. Maybe Pence sneaks past Jones.

9:39	Comment From Roy Hobbs Strikeouts don’t matter. I can keep Bryant as a 10th round pick. Should I do it? I’m out of contention.

9:40	Paul Swydan: 10th round is a little steep, but if you’re out of it you would be justified.

9:40	Comment From Ryan Which team at .500 or below has the best chance to make the playoffs?

9:41	Paul Swydan: According to our playoff odds, the Pirates.

9:41	Comment From Jimmy Serious conundrum: crazy thunderstorm here but I have a date in 30 and haven’t showered all day. Do I risk death or just load up on cologne?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I can’t believe you’re coming to me with this question, A. But B, I’d risk death and take a quick shower.

9:42	Comment From Forsyth Am I being fickle by being a little ticked off that the Sox are skipping Rubby in New York? I really wanted to see him pitch on a bigger stage and see how he responds.

9:42	Paul Swydan: I don’t think fickle is the right word. You definitely have a right to be ticked off with any number of odd choices that Farrell and Co have made this season though.

9:42	Comment From Forsyth what kind of line do you expect for Betts ROS? Would .265/.335/.410, 6 HR, 15 SB be aggressive?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think the six homers are probably aggressive, ya.

9:43	Comment From A grandpa send questions or commentsDo you think the Phillies will have a good second half?.\\THank you very much Paul!

9:43	Paul Swydan: I guess that depends on how you define a good second half. In terms of wins and losses, no. In terms of rebuilding their farm system by making some good trades…still no. Either because they won’t sell off or they won’t make good trades. I have no faith in the Phillies right now.

9:43	Comment From Tom Where would you rank Devin Mesoraco among catchers for, say, the next three years: top 10? top 5?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Top 5 is probably pushing it, but I could see top 10. Always been a big fan. He more than anyone else must be thrilled to see Dusty move on.

9:44	Comment From Mel Ott A) Is Sano going to mash next year (30+ HR)? B) That guy Jimmy should have showered.

9:44	Paul Swydan: A) No. B) I know, right?

9:44	Comment From Rick Have the Reds been playing well enough lately to be legitimate buyers? And if so, what is one move you think they should explore?

9:45	Paul Swydan: It would be helpful if they admitted that Ryan Ludwick is no longer a capable major league player, but they’ve rode with him this long, so I don’t expect that to change.

9:45	Comment From Pete Wheeler you ever play Out of the Park Baseball?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I have not. I know there are guys on staff that have – Bradley Woodrum and Brandon Warne come to mind.

9:46	Comment From Koji 5×5 Roto league, I’m near the top in all categories but dead last in SBs, sitting in 3rd. Should I make a push to move up in SBs?

9:47	Paul Swydan: It’s a tough balance. I would always try to get better, but if it comes at the expense of your other category domination you need to be careful. No need to sacrifice five points across the board in the other four spots to move up three places in SBs.

9:47	Comment From Not Happy Drop Zach Wheeler in 10 mixed H2H points? He is very inconsistent.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I feel like he probably has far lower of a value in H2H leagues. He’s barely good enough for rotisserie leagues.

9:47	Comment From jv Without an injury, will Oscar Taveras be up before September?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think the fact that we’re even contemplating this question is mind blowing. He was supposed to be knee deep in a Rookie of the Year campaign by now.

9:48	Comment From Guest More HRs RoS: Cano or Longoria?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Probably Longoria.

9:48	Comment From Paul Swydan clone Very vague question, but is Rasmus good? Better than Lawrie ROS for fantasy purposes?

9:49	Paul Swydan: First, I want to note that I feel bad for you if you’re cloning me. Aim higher! I’d go with Rihanna, personally. Second, he is good. Probably not better than Lawrie though assuming good health for both because Lawrie has the dual eligibility now. Or, he should anyway.

9:50	Comment From Claudio nelson cruz just hit a grand slam to tie the game in the 8th…still feel the same way about that sonny gray for cruz trade in a redraft league??

9:50	Paul Swydan: Oh, I’m sorry, it’s a redraft league? I missed that the first time. You’re probably better off holding on to him in a redraft league. Or, asking for more.

9:50	Comment From Beyonce K. Rihanna? Psh.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I woke up like this! I woke up like this!

9:51	Comment From Bradley is keith law pompous?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Keith just has an odd sense of humor, I think. He’s actually a really nice guy.

9:51	Comment From Keith Law is bradley pompous?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Probably!

9:51	Comment From The Source You ever dig Lil B?

9:52	Paul Swydan: The only CD of his I ever listened to was the one with “I’m Gay” on it. If there is a music corollary for “too long, didn’t read,” it’s Lil’ B. He puts out – or used to put out (I haven’t kept track lately) WAYYYYYY too much content for me to ever have enough time to listen to it all.

9:53	Comment From Bradley LOL No, I’m not pompous but I like grey poupon mustard

9:53	Paul Swydan: Well, I think we can all agree that that’s good.

9:53	Comment From Tom Are you a prospect guy? Do you think Rob Refsnyder would be better than Brian Roberts right now?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I’m not a prospect guy and can honestly say that’s a player with whom I’m not familiar. Sorry.

9:54	Comment From Paul Swydan clone I actually hate all mustards. So we don’t all agree. We don’t have to though. ‘Murica.

9:54	Paul Swydan: You hate ALL mustards? That seems inconceivable. Mustard is the best condiment!!!

9:54	Comment From Alexander What’s Marcus Stroman’s ceiling like?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, I’ve never been to his house. Or apartment. I actually don’t know what kind of dwelling he has.

9:55	Comment From Meano Eno Mustard is at best the 5th best condiment

9:55	Paul Swydan: Fifth? Fifth?!?!? No way.

9:55	Comment From jv I agree on Taveras. Unrelated to that, its amazing the Cardinals have done so well with such a poor manager.

9:56	Paul Swydan: And unrelated to that, really, not one vote for USA victory? You guys are killing me.

9:56	Comment From Alaa Abdelnaby What do the Celtics do tmw night?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Alaa! Loved you back in the day! I have done incredibly little research, but if Embiid is there, I take him. Otherwise, I want either Randle, Smart or Gordon. Possibly in that order.

9:57	Comment From Paul Swydan clone I like mayo, preferably of the chipotle kind. Would you rather run sprints in Manaus or take a Chapman heater to the shin?

9:57	Paul Swydan: The sprints.

9:57	Comment From Bradley my wife puts ketchup on her hot dog instead of mustard and somehow I haven’t divorced her yet

9:58	Paul Swydan: Well, I put ketchup on my hot dog too. There’s room for more than one condiment on your pork products. Or beef, if you get the all beef hot dogs. I know I do.

9:58	Comment From Meano Eno who in the world is ender inciante

9:59	Paul Swydan: Not a very good hitter. Yet they keep hitting him at the top of the lineup. It’s almost like Kirk Gibson is daring the front office to fire him.

9:59	Comment From Guest Would you move Bryant, Giolito, and Urias in a 10 team dynasty? No chance of winning this year.

9:59	Paul Swydan: If you have no chance of winning this year, I’m not sure why you would move them, but if I moved anyone, it’d be Urias, as he’s probably at least two years away.

9:59	Comment From Bradley ketchup on hot dogs?! do you put mayo on a corn beef sandwich too?