FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/28/15

by Paul Swydan

July 28, 2015

5:45	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff is incognito tonight, so it will just be me, and you, and you, and you, and … well all of you! See you at 9 pm ET. It’s gonna be a good night!

9:03	Paul Swydan: OK guys, well the stupidest replay challenge ever just happened, so it seems like a good time to start chatting!

9:03	Comment From hscer But I don’t WANNA root for Papelbon!!!

9:03	Paul Swydan: Yes, but do you want to be a pirate?

9:04	Paul Swydan: (that’s a Seinfeld joke, for you kids out there)

9:04	Comment From The Cincinnati Kid Time to make up for your preseason bold predictions: list 3 BOLD predictions for the trade deadline.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Oh boy. On the spot. 1) Yankees get Samardzija 2) Astros get Hamels 3) Mets get CarGo

9:05	Paul Swydan: Is that bold enough?

9:05	Comment From 804NatsFan Which will be worse, having to root against a recent fan favorite (Clippard) or having to root for a recent unlikeable rival (Papelbon)?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Worse will be rooting against Clippard. I know it sounds hard to believe, but Papelbon is not so bad when he’s on YOUR team. Trust me, I know from experience, dude.

9:06	Paul Swydan: (that’s a billy madison joke for you kids)

9:06	Comment From Ryan in Florida So, what do you think of the return the Rockies got for Tulo?

9:07

Paul Swydan: I think that if you’re going to trade one of your franchise’s three best players of all-time, that you need a sure thing in return. The Rockies essentially got four lottery tickets. One shortstop who used to be good and might be again if he can handle the altitude (unlikely), and one very good starting pitching prospect who has had TJ (not a good sign) and two 20-year-olds, who could be everything or nothing.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I also hold no value in the Rockies saving $50 million. They’re not going to reinvest that in the free agent market, and given Arenado’s comments today, it would seem quite unlikely that he inks a major deal before the start of the 2016 season.

9:08	Comment From Chris If you had all of Dave’s past trade value lists handy and all the relevant info for all the players, what info would you like to know from that data?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Interesting question. The players age and remaining years on contract / years of team control, the team, and what his general stats were at the time. If they were a prospect, then some salient/tangible prospect info, like level, things like that.

9:10	Comment From ftf Don’t you think the indians’ window could be open for quite a long time (I’m thinking 2017/2018), or is baseball just chaos ?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think that the Indians’ window is closed until they make up their mind to cut Bourn and Swisher loose and just eat that money. Then they can decide who they want to be. Until then, they are a middling team with no identity.

9:10	Comment From ftf WHat will be Zobrist’s value on the market when he’ll hit FA this winter ? Any frontrunner to acquire him ?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I don’t think there is a frontrunner for him at this point, no. I think his market will develop based partially on where he wants to play. If he wants to keep playing everywhere, many teams will be in on him.

9:11	Comment From Jake Cargo+Reyes gets the Rockies a blue chip prospect or two, rght?

9:11	Paul Swydan: They’re not going to trade Reyes. They need him around to sell the deal to the casual fan base that would howl if they only got prospects back, like people howled when they traded Walker and Ubaldo.

9:12

Comment From RPT
I’m looking into the possibility of developing an app that notifies you of when your fantasy players are hitting (or coming up to hit) or pitching. I’ve found a couple places that have API’s on MLB data, but nothing so far that has the capabilities to track players in live games. Any idea where I could find something like that, or who I could ask? Would be forever grateful.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I have no idea, but best of luck to you in your quest. Posting here in case someone in the room has an idea.

9:13	Comment From Schloss Can you see any appeal in a Starlin Castro/Jedd Gyorko challenge trade?

9:13	Paul Swydan: From the Padres point of view, sure. Not really sure why the Cubs would want Gyorko. If they trade Castro, they move Russell to shortstop and Baez to second.

9:14	Comment From Jake RE D-Backs interest in Hamels, Chapman: do you have any idea what the hell is going on in Arizonia?

9:14	Paul Swydan: No, but they’re mixing it up. I like that.

9:14	Comment From Gregory How do you feel about the inevitability of Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez missing the HoF and noted PED user David “Clutch” Ortiz making it in

9:15

Paul Swydan: Well, I’d be fine with Ortiz getting in. There is no tangible proof that he ever used. Spare me the unsealed report nonsense. Plenty of people were named in that report, but Ortiz is the only one people ever bring up. Furthermore, I don’t care if PED guys make the Hall. It’s a museum, not a Sainthood Club.

9:15	Comment From Jake Are we moving past the era of clear steal trades? Feels like everyone’s gotten smart enough that there isn’t any easy arbitrage.

9:16	Paul Swydan: AJ Preller says hi.

9:16	Comment From VanExcellent At some point does having elite prospects like Seager and Urias in a way work against the Dodgers during trade deadlines? Does any and all conversations for a top flight trade start and end with them?

9:16	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so.

9:16	Comment From uruguayan Would Brock Holt and his 4+ years of service time bring back a greater package than Manaea/Brooks?

9:16	Paul Swydan: No. Maybe that exact package, but definitely not more.

9:17	Paul Swydan: If they could get more than for Holt, they’d have traded him by now.

9:17	Comment From uruguayan From which city’s taps will Yoenis Cespedes drink his water next week?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Detroit. Can’t see them selling.

9:17	Comment From bearproof Why isn’t Seattle an option in the poll? Seems like they have executed their “We’re almost in last place, but this is also our peak, so we’ll do nothing” plan flawlessly this week.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Patrick Dubuque, is that you?

9:17	Comment From Rob What is the proper response to all the haters in the Toronto local media who are hating on Anthopoulos for the Tulo deal?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Silence. Don’t feed the trolls.

9:18	Comment From Ryan Which formerly struggling and now hot hitter do you think is less likely to revert to their early seasons form: Carlos Gonzalez or Robinson Cano?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Cano, just because he has a better track record health-wise. But I’m rooting for them both. I’m ecstatic to be wrong about writing off CarGo.

9:18	Comment From Pale Hose Ha to those predicting a boring deadline.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Yeah. I love it when a trade deadline comes together.

9:19	Paul Swydan: (that’s an A Team joke for you kids)

9:19	Comment From Guest Could the Sox give a godfather offer that makes the Marlins move Jose Fernandez? Something like free Castillo/Erod/Guerra/Owens/Margot/Devers?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure why you would do that. I would never push that many chips in on a guy that just had TJ surgery.

9:19	Comment From Biggy Keeper, what to make of Puig! Should I trade him for Strasburg and Kipnis in a keeper?

9:20	Paul Swydan: If you can get Strasburg AND Kipnis for just Puig, then ya, probably. Even if Strasburg blows up, Kipnis is in Puig’s league and at a shallower position.

9:20	Comment From Henry Rowengartner I don’t do BOLD predictions….I do OLD predictions. I predict the Royals will trade for Cueto and Zobrist. Also, the Nationals will get Papelbon.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Wow, nicely done, Henry!

9:21	Comment From Abe Will the Brewers’ future be better after the trade deadline?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I think their future will be the same. I don’t see them moving Lucroy or Gomez.

9:21	Comment From The Cincinnati Kid Is it just a coincidence that all of the prospects being traded are pitchers or is there something underlying that needs further examination?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think it’s easier for a front office to rationalize trading pitchers, because really all pitchers are wild cards. And it’s easy for a team to rationalize acquiring pitchers because you can never have enough pitchers. So it makes total sense.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Also, Josh Rutledge would like you to apologize to him.

9:22	Comment From The Cincinnati Kid No matter how this trade season goes, is Walt Jocketty fired after the season?

9:22	Paul Swydan: No, he did well in the Cueto trade, and if he can do well for Chapman and/or Bruce, he could save his job.

9:22	Comment From Johnny5Alive dont look now, the mets are winning and the nats are losing…

9:22	Paul Swydan: OK, let me know when I can look!

9:23	Comment From Ted Drop McHugh for Rodon in a 12 team redraft?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I see nothing wrong with that. McHugh is having a McMeh season.

9:24	Comment From Johnny5Alive could the mets have done better for the rockies knowing theyd be eating around 50 mil?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I doubt that was the conversation they had with the Mets.

9:24	Comment From Dave (Boston) Biggest surprise closer on August 1st is ____?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Hopefully, Junichi Tazawa.

9:24	Comment From Guest Betts caught an Abreu homer went into bullpen dropped ball ruled a home run and left game with a concussion. I hate 2015.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Yeah, it’s a ridiculous rule.

9:25	Paul Swydan: It’s ridiculous in the NFL and it’s ridiculous in baseball.

9:26	Paul Swydan: He clearly had the ball in his glove and then voluntarily jumped over the wall instead of involuntarily crashing into it.

9:26	Paul Swydan: And you penalize him for that. That’s a sorry state of affairs.

9:26	Comment From The Cincinnati Kid Who is the first player, and what year, to have “WAR” included on their plaque in Cooperstown?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Mike Trout?

9:27	Comment From Compton Would you rather have the package that Oakland received for Zobrist(Manaea and Brooks) or the one Cincinnati received for Cueto(Finnegan, Lamb, and Reed)?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I suppose the Reds, since they got the extra guy, but I’m honestly not super familiar with any of those prospects.

9:28	Comment From Compton Does Pedro Alvarez and a bit prospect for Chris Davis and cash make sense for both teams? Orioles get a buy-low who can potentially help them next year while still not giving up on 2015. Pirates slightly move the needle with their 2015 chances.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Only if the O’s decide to sell. All their comments have been to the contrary, that they’re buying.

9:28

Comment From Johnny5Alive
given the contract exchange, the rockies essentially are paying half of tulo’s contract = lets assume they just came out and said, we will pay $48 million of tulo’s contract, could they have done better? could the mets have topped that package without one of degrom/harvey/thor?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I think they could have done better. Whether the Mets would have coughed up one of the triumvirate for him, who knows. Frankly, if the Mets could have offloaded Harvey for Tulo, I’d do that in a heartbeat. But I’m more wary of TJ guys than most.

9:29	Comment From TKDC The new HOF voting rule is how big of a deal?

9:30	Paul Swydan: A fairly big deal. If nothing else, it should increase the transparency of the vote.

9:30	Paul Swydan: As Sky Kalkman noted on Twitter, many/most of the undocumented votes were from people who no longer covered baseball for a living.

9:31	Paul Swydan: In general, it’s just nice to have. The in perpetuity rule was silly. It’s the baseball WRITERS association, not the baseball KINGS association.

9:31	Comment From Aunt Jessie What are your favorite/least favorite buildings architecturally that you’ve seen in person?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Least favorite is easily Chase Field. New Yankee Stadium in the outfield is atrocious. Most favorite is Fenway, Coors and Petco.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Thats not an exhaustive list, mind you. But that’s what came to me initially.

9:32	Comment From Mikelo Grichuk or Melky ROS?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Dayn Perry would be very mad to hear you ask this. (Grichuk for sure)

9:32

Comment From Phil
Regardless what happens in the next three days, don’t the O’s HAVE to be sellers? Even Joe Fan around here is saying this, and they aren’t the most savvy guys. They have almost no quality in the farm system to speak of and they ain’t signing Davis or Wieters in the offseason, so without trying to get ANY return for them or Chen (admittedly it would all be a smallish return, but at least something for the future)… 2016 and well beyond is going to really suck, no? Their window is gone. They need to be looking at 2017/2018. Am I off base?

9:33

Paul Swydan: Well, it’s a difficult question. On the one hand, you’re right, they have a very limited future window. On the other hand, their expiring guys aren’t worth much, so why not take a stab at it and see how it goes? If you make the postseason three out of four years, that’s something to hang your hat on.

9:35	Paul Swydan: And with ~ $50 million coming off the books, Duquette can be aggressive in free agency this winter should they choose to go that route.

9:35	Paul Swydan: They can promote Gausman and Bundy to take the spots of Norris and Chen, and go after whoever they want with that money.

9:35	Comment From Dann How stoked should I be on Manaea? Unreasonably? Gotcha, sounds good.

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’m glad we had this talk.

9:36	Comment From Guest So say a team wanted to try the Chapman as a starter experiment again long term….is that possible?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Only if Chapman is on board with that plan.

9:36	Comment From Johnny5Alive plus with less voters it will be easier to get to the 75% or whatever it is

9:37	Paul Swydan: Well, new voters will come online every year, and there are probably more voters than there used to be now that the BBWAA is credentialing lowly bloggers like us.

9:37	Comment From Cidron Royals, all in, at all costs. Do they have anything in reserve for next year when the new guys leave for greener (money) fields? Have they depleted their pitching reserves? Will they be required to search among the dregs of the mlb’s version of waiver wire fodder for a rotation?

9:38	Paul Swydan: They had a very deep farm system. I think they’ll be OK. They still have pretty much #3 on down to #20 or so on Kiley’s preseason list, do they not? http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:39	Comment From Cidron Was the HOF vote, 75% of the received votes or 75% of the sent out votes?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I believe it is of the people who turn in their ballots.

9:39	Comment From GLove Better deal for the Tigers … Price for 2-3 mid-level prospects, or Price + VMart for a bag of rocks?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Prospects.

9:39	Comment From CC Thor have a shot at ROY? What’s your rank of him/Joc/Bryant

9:40	Paul Swydan: Thor has no shot at ROY, sorry. He’s a clear #3 behind those two guys, and Duffy and Grichuk and Heston are in his league as well.

9:40	Comment From Jose Valentin Do you believe the White Sox can put together a wildcard run or should they be selling?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I believe in neither of those things.

9:41	Comment From uruguayan Better career: Luis Severino or Eduardo Rodriguez?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I will go with the guy already in the majors and say Rodriguez.

9:41	Comment From munenori kawasaki quite the trade for jays, landing tulo and making this offense even more scary. With trevor story what can we expect from him short term and long term, I’m liking his potential longterm, even with the questionable plate discipline.

9:43

Paul Swydan: As I said earlier, I think the Rockies hang on to Reyes. At least until the winter, but possibly until this time next year, and by that time, Brendan Rodgers might not be that far off. So I don’t know that I expect Story to get an extended shot.

He has hit very well this year, but it’s all slugging. His plate discipline has gone backward in a big way since being promoted to Triple-A, and that is a major red flag. It’s only 93 PA, but the fact that he is swinging out of his shoes to try to hit everything just because he’s playing at high altitude is not the approach I want to see.

9:43	Comment From Pale Hose Are prospect returns always going to feel a little light, or will we ever adjust our expectations?

9:44

Paul Swydan: The Samardzija trade didn’t feel light last year. The Cueto trade didn’t feel light. But I think that when the prospects are all pitchers, there is a tendency for it to feel light, yes. Especially for Rockies fans who remember being told that Drew Pomeranz was going to be dynamite, only to see the organization give up on him a year later.

9:44	Comment From Matt Upton + Sox $$$ to the Mets. Either Cashner or Ross to the Red Sox. Both send prospects to the Padres. Maybe JBJ(they need his defense) and Montero make sense. How does that framework sound?

9:45	Paul Swydan: It sounds complicated. And I don’t see why the Padres are trading Tyson Ross. He’s the exact guy they need to be keeping. Cheap and under team control.

9:45	Comment From The Cincinnati Kid Can the Dodgers agree to a trade and have the buying team (potentially) work out a new deal with Alex Guerrero before a trade is executed, or is the buying team essentially hoping they can work with him before now and the end of the year?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I guess I just don’t see a team wanting Guerrero badly enough to try and work out a new deal with him.

9:46	Comment From GLove who says no …. Tigers send Avila and Gose to Minnesota for Hicks

9:46	Paul Swydan: The Tigers.

9:46	Comment From Stevolatte Did you hear that the Rockies are paying $6 of Tulo’s contract? $6, not 6 million.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Oh, uh, no, I didn’t hear that.

9:46	Comment From kr Grand Slam for Chris Young and it’s 15-5 with no outs in the 3rd!!!

9:47	Paul Swydan: I guess Martin Perez will need a little more time to sort things out, eh?

9:47	Comment From Pookie Do you really think they’ll move Koji?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I’m hopeful that they do. They need a total bullpen makeover, and keeping a 41-year-old Koji around while they do strikes me as foolhardy. But what do I know? I thought Craig Breslow should have been waived after 2013, and they just keep running him out there.

9:48	Comment From Jay If you’re Sandy Alderson, do you trade for one more bat/bullpen arm or hold pat and hope d’Arnaud, Wright, Blevens, Matz return and fill the bill?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Oh they need another bat for sure. Anything they can get from d’Arnaud and Wright will be a bonus.

9:49	Comment From Johnny5Alive the jays could still use a pitching upgrade, even if not top tier – anything possible with mets for niese? colabello?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I read a rumor that they were after Ian Kennedy. That’d do nicely. I don’t see the Mets trading Niese.

9:50	Comment From Biggy Good keeper trade? I get Feenandez and jay Bruce, he gets Melky, odor, Quintana?

9:50	Paul Swydan: DId you pull that trade off? If so, bravo, not sure why anyone would want Melky in any kind of fantasy league.

9:50	Comment From The Cincinnati Kid If you had to put into strictly dollar figures: how much is Hamels limited “no trade clause” costing the Phillies in potential suitors?

9:51	Paul Swydan: It’s not costing them any suitors. Hamels is going to waive that no trade clause for anyone they work out a trade to, especially now that they dealt Papelbon. No way Hamels can seriously want to stay in Philly.

9:51	Comment From Stevolatte http://hardballtalk.nbcspor…

9:52	Paul Swydan: I will wait and see if either team confirms that. That is just bizarre.

9:53	Comment From Johnny5Alive goddamn AJ Ramos… im so glad i flipped him for tyler glasnow yesterday

9:53	Paul Swydan: Nice job by you. AJ Ramos meanwhile has loaded the bases with one out.

9:54	Paul Swydan: ANd then gets a game-ending double play. Whew. Mets fans rejoice.

9:54	Comment From CC Mookie gonna be okay? That looked bad.

9:55	Paul Swydan: I hope so. We don’t know anything yet.

9:55	Comment From Ryan Joey Votto has reached base at least twice in 15 straight games.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Noted! And notable. Joey Votto has to be enjoying his comeback season, even if the Reds are terrible.

9:55

Comment From Phillies
With them not eating any 2016 Pap money, I’m beginning to think it’s likely the Phillies try to make a splash in free agency and grab someone like Heyward and a pitcher regardless of a Hamels trade since they FA market in the following couple years would be weak. Thoughts on that possibility. Gonna have a ton of available money.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Let’s get past Friday first. I wouldn’t rule it out.

9:56	Comment From Henry Rowengartner Is there any meaningful data yet on how the new video screens are impacting the hitter/pitcher friendlyness of Wrigley? The wind has always been a huge factor there, so I’m wondering how those screens are altering the impact of the wind.

9:56	Paul Swydan: No, but it’s an interesting question, and one that hopefully we can tackle in the near future. Thank you for bringing it up.

9:57	Comment From bearproof How much playing time is left for C.J. Cron now that the Angels have DeJesus and Murphy?

9:57	Paul Swydan: It looks like he might end up splitting his DH time with David Murphy. In which case, not as much as he’d like. Not that the Angels should care.

9:57	Comment From Nathan Who do you prefer between these breakout CF in a dynasty league, Pollock or Cain? Which performance do you believe is more real?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Pollock is a) two years younger, b) has stats this year that are more in line with last year than does Cain and c) plays in a slightly better ballpark for offense. http://www.fangraphs.com/gu… So I’ll say Pollock.

9:59	Comment From Mike How many Jays games will end up 15-12 from here on out?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Probably not as many as the naysayers would like to think. Don’t forget, the Blue Jays also upgraded their defense. Tulo and Donaldson on that left side is scary good.

9:59	Comment From N.I.C. Brandon Crawford is the best shortstop in the National League, right?