FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/5/16

by Paul Swydan

July 5, 2016

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Rated Rookie: Who has the bigger (fantasy) impact in 2016, Bregman or Benintendi? Who is the better long term, dynasty pick?

9:01	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Bregman, for the simple fact that I don’t see Benintendi coming up this season.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Bregman

9:03	Brendan C. : What is your reaction to the Jung Ho Kang news? What should the league do with these unusual circumstances?

9:03	Paul Swydan: First of all, I don’t think we should think of these as unusual circumstances.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing until he is charged with a crime.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Second, if what is stated in the Chicago Tribune report is accurate, and I have little reason to believe that it isn’t, then Kang should receive a harsher punishment than did Reyes and Chapman, as Kang’s accuser has not withdrawn from prosecution.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Right, if what is said in the report is accurate it would seem likely that he is charged.

9:06	Paul Swydan: But even if he isn’t charged, these are serious accusations. Neither Reyes nor Chapman was ultimately found guilty of a crime and both were suspended, so the Commissioner’s Office will have precedent on their side in that respect.

9:06	Rated Rookie: If you had to guess, because that is all anyone outside of the Pirates org can do, how serious is Jameson Taillon’s shoulder fatigue? It seems vague enough to be clever roster move designed to limit his workload.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I was reading more. I think he is hosed and as was the case with Reyes, he has a decent chance of being deported like some hockey players have been

9:07	Paul Swydan: Oh, yeah, I didn’t even think of deportation. And if he is deported, his contract would be torn up, probably.

9:07	Paul Swydan: As for Taillon, I’d rather not guess. I don’t see what that accomplishes.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I looked at other cases of “shoulder fatigue”. 10 times the player came back in 15-45 days. 2 cases of 100+ days

9:08	Jimmy: Red Sox have to be close to desperate enough to trade one of Moncada or Benintendi for Teheran, right? If not, what do they do instead?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they keep those two and go with the kitchen sink approach with the two A-Ball pitchers which are lighting it up and some other bats

9:09	Paul Swydan: No, they’re not that desperate. They are tied for the 8th best record in baseball, I think the narrative that they need to be desperate is patently false.

9:09	Nathan: Junior Guerra is on a roll right now. Is David Stearns a genius because it was his first ever acquisition?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Well, Stearns is certainly off to a great start. I don’t know that I want to separate out just one acquisition to judge a front office. In fact, I know I don’t want to, but I’ve been impressed with Milwaukee since he took over.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Here is my philosophy on GM. They look good early on because the team is messed and stuck on certain players. Also, the GM has some players he is looking at. He can look good right off the top, but the great ones have more than the half dozen obvious moves in them

9:11	John Coctostan: Good evening Paul. Do you think Tim Anderson will get 15-20 stolen bases in the second half of the season? His homers are a nice bonus and all, but will he get on 1st enough and be aggressive enough to get a lot of SBs? He’s definitely got the speed. Thanks.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think he will put up a 30-40 SB pace. I am thinking more in the 8-15 range.

9:12	Paul Swydan: He seems to be good for about 20 stolen bases a season, so 15-20 in the second half might seem aggressive. The outlier in his SB totals is last season right now.

9:13	Bob: This past weekend we saw scores of 17-1, 14-3, 12-1, 17-5, and 21-2. How rare is it that there are five games won by a 10+ run difference in one weekend?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Bob, I was thinking the same thing. It can’t happen too often, but I couldn’t wrap my head around how to go about executing such a query. Maybe Jeff knows.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Tough to do for a weekend. I could fine single days easier

9:14	Ryan: Did the Giants bite the Cardinals in 2014 and steal their “Having Random Minor Leaguers Produce at the Major League Level” powers? The unexpected (small sample, admittedly) production of guys like Parker, Gillaspie, Williamson and Pena has made the loss of their DL guys not as stark.

9:15	Paul Swydan: No, the Giants have always been able to find guys like this, be it from their own system or reclamation projects (see Burrell, Pat). They have a good development and pro scouting apparatus there.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I know this much, the Giant scouts out work every other team’s scouts out there. It does not surprise me they have found so many diamonds in the rough

9:16	humphrey: Keep forever league, I’m stacked in pitching. I want to trade Giolito for either Willson Contreras or Bregman. Which should I target? (I’m currently running out Beef Welington and Cozart.)

9:17	Paul Swydan: I don’t think you’re aiming high enough. For Giolito, I’d be asking for at least both of those guys.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Bregman and I am greedy like Paul and wanting both.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Weird play in the Red Sox game just now. The ole 1-3-2 double play.

9:19	South Side Crede: Jose Quintana… leads the AL in WAR, 2nd in FIP. Not an all-star. Will he ever get respect?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I’m sure he’ll be the one of the first injury replacements into the game.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: To get the full respect, the White Sox need to be good and he needs a little luck and get an ERA under 2.50. Interesting that his career FIP and ERA are equal.

9:22	Minty: Quintana/Schwarber for Giolito in a dynasty enough?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take Q&S in a heart beat

9:22	Paul Swydan: I guess I don’t get the fascination with Schwarber. He’s a) injured and b) has no position until he’s traded to an AL team.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I’d want a healthy player.

9:23	Vic Romano: The owner of Giolito and Mazara in my keep forever league is trying to win now and has said he would trade them both for a major upgrade for his offense. What’s a fair estimate of a player I could offer up for those two? Stanton? Altuve? Springer? Betts?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Giolito is healthy now, but already has a TJS under his belt. I would not be surprised if Quintana outproduces him from this point forward

9:24	Paul Swydan: Stanton might be the way to go there. I feel like he has more name value than actual value.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Springer. It is obvious, Paul and I are going to disagree on Gio’s value right now

9:25	Paul Swydan: Well, I just don’t know that I’d consider Springer an upgrade.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the others are too much. All possible 1st rounders. I think E5 may be in the right range

9:26	Paul Swydan: OK, well Springer is definitely better than Mazara, but some of that is playing time accumulation. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=12856,14553

9:26	Joe: Price has been a conundrum, whats your take?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I think ultimately Price will be fine, but if this is his new normal, it’s going to be a lot of years of fans howling about that contract.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: He is going to get hit harder with the lower FB velo, I am surprised it has been this much, but should be expected

9:29	Not your buddy, Guyer: Tyler Naquinn went deep again tonight, is he the real deal? Also, what do you guys make of the summer Chisenhall is putting together?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: In ’09 he had similar velo and almost the same HR/9 as this season.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sold on Nayquins power, but I think he is a nice player. I have given up on Chisenhall and will put my chips on someone else.

9:30	Paul Swydan: First off, great username. Second, not buying on Naquin until he is good without a .437 BABIP. Third, Chisenhall is fine. This is the top of the scale for him. He was this good two years ago, so it’s nice to see him back to that level, but I wouldn’t expect anything more than this.

9:31	Zonk: What is your take on the Cubs cold streak? Serious problems, or just baseball?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Just baseball.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Baseball .. they are still good.

9:31	hscer: at what point do the Red Sox become considered not actually that great at free agent signings?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Is any team really that great at free agent signings? No team’s record is spotless the last time I checked.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take the Red Sox signings are a bunch of other teams. How are the Yankees doing with their signings?

9:33	Josh: What do I do w/ Jose Abreu?

9:33	Paul Swydan: The same thing you do with a drunken sailor?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends. If you are leading the league, get a safer choice. If behind, you need to take chances and that chance is him heating up.

9:34

Paul Swydan: You have to hold on to him, unfortunately, unless you can find someone willing to trade for him on his previously established value and not his 2016 performance. Maybe if someone’s team loses their 1B to injury or something you can squeeze. Otherwise, you’ve got to be like Wilson Phillips and hold on for one more day.

9:35	Not your buddy, Guyer: Thanks for the compliment on the username, Paul

9:35	Paul Swydan: No problem, but I’m still not your Guyer, buddy.

9:36	No more Mazara?: Mazara got a bunch of early Rookie of the Year hype, but the the Rangers aren’t even playing him everyday. Any chance he sees more time after a trade? or play 1B?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I think a trade will clear things up with Texas. They so many hitting prospects. I could see them move hitting for pitching prospects.

9:38	Paul Swydan: I mean, since his first start on April 10, he’s started 71 times and sat 8 times. And now Choo might have a back injury. Everything’s gonna be alright, primise.

9:38	Murdoc: Which current AL division leader are you most confident in to stay in first and win their division?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Are the Cubs an AL team? Probably the Rangers.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Cleveland

9:40	Will: Desperate for starting pitching at this point and punting saves in 12 team mixed h2h 5×5 redraft league. Was offered Archer and Shaw for Sano and Osuna. Fair value? Archer scares me a bit

9:40	Paul Swydan: Maybe because it’s a redraft league, but I’m not sold on Archer turning things around, and Shaw hasn’t been that great either. If you’re desperate you’re desperate, but I’d try to do better.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you try for more, quite a bit more.

9:41	homesickalien: Who’s closing for the Rockies by September?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul

9:42	Paul Swydan: I think it’ll still be McGee if he’s healthy. They have a trade to justify!

9:42	Stenzy: A buddy who is an area scout says the Giants have a better shot at landing top talent at the trade deadline than say the Red Sox or Dodgers because they have no untouchables or players off limits. Thoughts?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I think that cuts both ways. They also have fewer top shelf talents, and don’t usually go for the players at the top of the trade market (see last year’s trade for Leake)

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Disagree, they may have, but I don’t think they have the better tradable talent. I do think the Rangers will make the biggest splash.

9:44	Stenzy: How common is it that teams already have deals in place but can’t pull the trigger until after the all star game due to the seller not wanting to trade their only all star before the game?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I think that more or less never happens. At least not these days. There’s no way two teams could keep the lid on a trade for that long. It would leak, and then the teams would have a lot of explaining to do, and not just to the media.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so. I think teams may say to wait, like the Reds last year and then move everyone fairly quickly.

9:45	Metro: Wil Middlebrooks is back in the Major Leagues… Winter is indeed coming.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Yeah, how about that?

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: And the Red Sox are giving SOS two starts.

9:46	Levin: People have been asking for Durant comparison in baseball. It’s got to be Pujols right? Left despite winning championship and big contract offer. Truly iconic, 1st ballot player who decided to say deuces to the only team he’d known.

9:47	Paul Swydan: I guess I missed the part where Kevin Durant won a championship. Which year was that?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Also, Durant isn’t as good as Pujols.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I disagree on NBA player values, a player can be worth 20-30 WAR on the shorter season.

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’d compare Durant leaving more to a Manny Ramirez signing with Boston or Mike Mussina signing with the Yankees.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Clemens is the player which comes to mind with me who would sell out always to the highest bidder.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Yeah Clemens is a good comp in a vacuum, though I would never claim that anyone is as big a jerk as Clemens.

9:50	pop tart: Should Craig Counsell remain the Brewers manager once their rebuild is complete?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Well, he shouldn’t be fired until he proves he can’t do the job. But I think we’ve got a couple of years before we need to worry about that.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I would think so. Managers matter very little and he does seem to keep the clubhouse together

9:51	Trevor Gobble: Hey Paul just wanted to get your thoughts on Dave’s aritcle about the Red Sox upgrading via adding another hitter (specifically Lucroy), at the deadline as well as an arm. Seems like exactly what should be done after reading it. Not enough impact arms available – at least as of now.

9:51	Paul Swydan: I wrote the same thing last week, so, uh, I agree with Dave. 🙂 https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/06/28/starting-pitching-problem-red-sox-also-need-bat-like-jonathan-lucroy

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds fine

9:52	Minty: If Cargo gets dealt, do you think that we see Dahl in August?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yes. Perhaps not RIGHT after CarGo is traded, but by the end of August for sure.

9:53	Paul Swydan: They’ll make sure he retains his rookie eligibility for 2017.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he will be part of the September callups

9:53	Gavin: Jeff you do wonderful work with the MASH report. Thanks for your continued efforts.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: You’re welcome

9:53	Paul Swydan: He does indeed! It takes a lot to put those together, you guys should thank him often.

9:54	Bart: Since Dave Cameron’s article titled “The Worrisome Trend for Troy Tulowitzki”, Troy Tulowitzki has put up a wrc+ of 158. Were the reports of his demise greatly exaggerated?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Exaggerated might be an exaggeration. I think the general trendline for Tulowitzki is still not promising. It is nice to see him hitting well, but he also gets hurt every year. The last time he cleared 140 games in a single season was 2011. He only cleared 150 games once — in 2009.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: The injuries always seem to be an issue.

9:56

Gavin: Why don’t you think the JHK situation is unusual Paul? I think he meant that MLB doesn’t often have to deal with an issue where a player may be criminally charged (that we hear about, I guess) so it is a bit unusual. I hope he wasn’t as stupid as what came out in the report but if he was I also hope there are serious consequences for him.

9:58

Paul Swydan: I suppose the fact that he might face charges is less usual, but we’ve seen it almost happen twice with Chapman and Reyes, and I am hopeful that as more of these situations become public, society will be more open to women bringing charges. I certainly don’t consider his behavior atypical of athletes.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:59	CJ: Schwarber mashes. That’s the fasination. Kinda like Joc?

9:59	Paul Swydan: You know who else mashed in a small sample in his rookie season? Brett Lawrie. How’s that been working out?