FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 8/1/17

by Paul Swydan

August 1, 2017

1:08

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best matchup?

KC (Kennedy) vs. BAL (Bundy) (1.8% | 3 votes)

CLE (Carrasco) vs. BOS (Sale) (68.5% | 109 votes)

STL (Martinez) vs. MIL (Nelson) (10.6% | 17 votes)

ARI (Corbin) vs. CHC (Lester) (5.6% | 9 votes)

TB (Archer) vs. HOU (Fiers) (10.0% | 16 votes)

Other (3.1% | 5 votes)

Total Votes: 159

1:09	Paul Swydan: Who won the trade deadline? Yankees (40.2% \| 76 votes) White Sox (13.7% \| 26 votes) Dodgers (31.7% \| 60 votes) Rangers (0% \| 0 votes) Cubs (6.8% \| 13 votes) Tigers (1.0% \| 2 votes) A’s (2.6% \| 5 votes) Other (3.7% \| 7 votes) Total Votes: 189

1:10	Paul Swydan: Who lost the trade deadline? Red Sox (18.6% \| 34 votes) Rays (3.2% \| 6 votes) Mets (14.8% \| 27 votes) Cardinals (10.9% \| 20 votes) Phillies (7.1% \| 13 votes) Angels (4.9% \| 9 votes) Other (40.1% \| 73 votes) Total Votes: 182

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Jeff should be along shortly.

9:02	Michael: No Rockies option for winning the deadline?

9:03

Paul Swydan: Look, I love the Rockies, and I thought they did well to get two players who filled needs for them without giving up a ton. But they didn’t really shift the balance of their respective race(s), and if Lucroy turns it around and hit well, the PTBNL they send to Texas will be of a higher caliber.

9:03	Chaps: There have been rumblings that the Astros had a trade for Britton lined up, but that Angelos vetoed it at the last minute. If this is true, does that change the perception of the Astros’ relatively inactive trade deadline, or should they have done more regardless of this (alleged) setback?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I don’t think they needed to do much, but yes, Britton would have been the swing for the fences move. Unless we get more info though, hard to judge.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Rosenthal had said the O’s want a killer package – maybe the Astros didn’t make them the Godfather offer they wanted? I have no idea.

9:04	Shouting WFAN Caller: WHERE’S DA AMED ROSARIO ARTICLE?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Tomorrow morning. Don’t worry, we got you, there was just a lot of catch up to play after the deadline today.

9:04	khaaan: You rock, Paul, thanks. Fantasy. 12 team, h2h yahoo. I was offered Goldy and Thor for my JD Mart and Kershaw. I say no, right? Plot twist, I’m in first, he’s in second.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I mostly roll, but I appreciate the sentiment.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I would keep your players and hi

9:06	Paul Swydan: Thor is still not throwing off a mound, so I don’t think it’s worth the risk.

9:06	Oddball Herrera: Rockies lost the trade deadline, because they added only Neshek while every one of their competitors (AZ, LAD, ChC, Wash) got substantially better, and they had some surplus they could’ve realistically spent.

9:06	Paul Swydan: They also got Lucroy. Look, I get the restlessness, but realistically, they stand a good chance to win one game, and then get swept by the Dodgers.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Not sure why you would mortgage the future for that.

9:07	Miky: So is Miggy a toast now? Or just a down year?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they weren’t going to sell the farm. They did what they could.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Miggy is probably more like a bagel. Ha, jokes!

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is declining like Pujols did. It will be a slow decline.

9:08	Paul Swydan: It’s not looking great. Might just be a lost year. Hoping it is.

9:08	Scuffy Mcgee: Best offensive output the rest of the season from rookie outfielders: Zimmer, Fisher or Frazier?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Zimmer and not close

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’ll take Zimmer, but I’m hesitant to weigh in too heavily here, as I don’t know as much as I should about Fisher and Frazier.

9:09	Paul Swydan: I do know I’ve been very happy with Zimmer.

9:09	Thanks for the chat!: Do you buy Tanaka’s problems being just a matter of day/night splits?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it’s just that, no.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:09	Thanks for the chat!: Can you explain Braves fans? When they were perennial contenders the fan base just seemed like, “meh…”, and now that they are the definition of average they are rabid in defense of the team’s excellence and ability to contend (Matt Adams surefire HOF!!!).

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think you’re probably conflating “Braves fans” with “Braves fans who are active on FanGraphs and on social media.” I think as a whole, Braves fans are still very “meh.”

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: meh …. that is higher than I thought. I think they will have some up and down seasons until they have a core producing regularly.

9:11	Scruffy-Lookin’ Nerf Hurler: Real question: As a Nationals fan, I feel bad for the O’s. Feels like they missed out on a good opportunity on moving Britton and Brach. But who would’ve been good trade partners for Manny or Jones?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Jones would have been tough, because he’s in decline. Oddly, Machado might have been tougher. Look at 3B team WAR, tell me who you think would truly be all in on Machado – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&t…

9:12	Paul Swydan: Red Sox could be, but they just called up Devers and he looks like the real deal.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: The O’s rarely trade unless it is for Steve Pearce. They just seem to like to stay put every year.

9:13	Paul Swydan: From there…Angels? Astros? Pirates? Braves?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I don’t see the obvious fit of “contender who has a massive, unsolvable hole at third base.”

9:13	Anon: Does the trade deadline change any of your personal post-season predictions?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Yes, I think the Yankees will win the AL East now. When the Red Sox are equal with teams talent-wise, they’re really behind, because John Farrell is like a lead weight pulling them down.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think players coming back from or going on the DL with have a much larger impact.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Case in point! Blaine Boyer comes in, loads the bases without recording an out, and is STILL in the game.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Why is he in the game?

9:15	Paul Swydan: That’s a fantastic question.

9:15	HappyFunBall : Other = Baltimore. Didn’t sell anything. Didn’t add enough to make a real WC run. Locked in for 75 wins next year already

9:16	Paul Swydan: For losing? Yeah, I guess I dropped the ball on that one. My fault.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea ….

9:16

Tom: August trade: Kemp and Markakis for Ellsbury, Miguel Andujar, Jake Cave and $5 million for Ellsbury’s buyout.

Ellsbury is owed $63.429 over the next 3 years.
Kemp and Markakis are owed $54.5 million total over next 2 years.

Why the Braves do it.
1) Ellsbury is a better bet to stay healthy in the OF than Kemp (not saying much…but it’s true).
2) Andujar could potentially be the Braves 3B next year. Has hit .318/.352/.516/.868 between AA and AAA this year.
3) Cave could be a solid 4th OF next year, can play all 3 spots. Has hit .323/.373/.606/.979 between AA and AAA this year.

4) Clears both Kemp and Markakis off the roster

Why the Yankees do it.
1) Kemp is a better offensive player than Ellsbury, they can use him as a DH, where he needs to be.
2) Cave needs to be on the 40 man roster for the Yankees at the end of the year or he is subject to Rule 5 draft.
3) They are locked in with Headley through 2018 at 3B and will go after Donaldson or Machado after.

9:17	Paul Swydan: OK, so this was so intricate that I had to post it. One problem — the Yankees already have a right-handed hitting outfielder who can’t really play the field anymore in Matt Holliday.

9:17	Paul Swydan: So, I don’t see it, but I love the enthusiasm.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Wow, I’m still reading it

9:17	Paul Swydan: And of course, Boyer gets a pop-up and then a double play. Of course.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Like Paul, I don’t get the Yankees side

9:17	Baseball is Weird: When do we get the first “What’s wrong with Judge?” article?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Probably going to give it awhile. He was never going to be that good all year.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I think this is the Judge I expected to start the season. I’m not surprised at all.

9:18	Carter: respond- good chance to win one game and get swept. I get that the Dodgers are playing like one of the greatest teams ever. But that is a bit of an exaggeration. Playoffs are a complete crapshoot.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Then why do teams buy at the deadline if it is a crapshoot?

9:20

Paul Swydan: They are a complete crapshoot. But say Jon Gray starts the Wild Card game and can’t pitch until Game 3 of the LDS. You like Marquez v. Kershaw? Freeland v. Darvish? Gray v. Wood/Hill, maybe, but still advantage Dodgers. And then Chatwood/Hoffman v. Wood/Hill. Rockies would be underdogs in all 4 matchups.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: And Judge still has a .391 BABIP. I expect even more regression going forward.

9:20	Paul Swydan: And historically, Dodger Stadium has been a House of Horrors for the Rockies.

9:20	Matt: Jeff, how does “player coming back from DL” have a different effect from newly acquired player. Aren’t they essentially the same thing?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I think quality and quantity could be huge either way. What if the Nats lost Mad Max tonight? Bigger impact than anything that went down on the trade deadline.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Rockies worst winning % vs. an NL team is vs. the Dodgers – https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/head2head.cgi?teams=COL&…

9:22	Paul Swydan: Yeah that sucked.

9:22	Will: How many top-50 prospects would the Angels get for Trout?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Probably not as many as they should. Because, teams rarely have more than 3-4, and the Angels would need 6-7 to make it worthwhile for them. Can’t ever see it balancing out.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it starts beyond that with a controllable All-Star like Bryant or Correa. Angels need to get back a cornerstone.

9:24	Matt: I just noticed that the Tigers have Hicks, Machado, McCann, Romine, and Sanchez. Did they buy all the off-brands?

9:24	Paul Swydan: That’s hilarious.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Truth

9:24	Will: Yankee fan watching the game right now. It’s just kinda surreal to see all these Tigers relievers come in with ERAs all above like 6. What is wrong with the Tigers? How can a bullpen have so many relievers this bad?

9:25	Paul Swydan: That’s even more hilarious. Sorry, Tigers fans.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s like the Mets and pitcher injuries. Went from funny to sad at some point.

9:26	Johnny Rockport: Who wins AL MVP?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Still looking like Aaron Judge or Jose Altuve are the front runners.

9:26	Paul Swydan: and

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is one of those two right now. I’m fine with either one.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Even if they don’t end up being the ONLY frontrunners, we’re all going to shoehorn them as such because the contrast between the two of them physically is one of those things that makes life worth living.

9:27	2019 Blue Jays: Suddenly, we look pretty good. Can we keep competing with Boston and NYY?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I’m glad you’re so optimistic, but Rogers Corp. signaled that they would not be spending in a commensurate fashion when they hired Mark Shapiro. So, I’m not as optimistic as you are.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Especially if the Yankees go out and get Harper, Machado, Kershaw or Donaldson next offseason.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: You can but it will be tough.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: or? I am thinking And

9:29	Will: Judge has 3 home runs in the past 7 games, with like a 900 OPS. I’m not even sure it’s correct to say he’s still slumping.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Yeah, fair enough. Just saying, not ready to hop on the clickbait-y “what’s wrong with Aaron Judge” until there’s something REALLY wrong with Aaron Judge.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Correct, he’s gone from insane to very good

9:29	CarrotJuice: JON LESTER DINGER ALERT

9:29	Paul Swydan: Love it.

9:30	Carter: Jeff Zimmerman 9:19 Then why do teams buy at the deadline if it is a crapshoot? Good question.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks

9:31	Paul Swydan: Because perception is reality, and even if a team doesn’t need anything, its players and its fans will get upset with the baseball ops dept if they sit on their hands.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Unless they pull the ole “We don’t need anyone because we believe in our players” line. But that usually doesn’t work.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: … and they need to appease their fans and egos

9:31

Matt: So, I totally understand the whole concept of armchair quarterbacks, and the fact that our information is not as complete as a FO’s information. That said, how can teams like the O’s (and others, but they’re at top of mind) do things like the O’s did at the deadline – nothing. They have to have some sort of grounding in reality, no?

9:32	Paul Swydan: They don’t, no. Peter Angelos is the owner, and he is a very rich man, and is welcome to do what he pleases with his bauble. If he told his GM not to sell, then his GM wasn’t selling. That simple. We don’t have to like it, but ultimately, it’s not up to us.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: IMO, the O’s go into the season with a set strict budget and can’t change.

9:33

Mike D: How do you balance the crap shoot aspect of the playoffs with the competitiveness window aspect? Rizzo/Nats seem to be maximizing appearances in the playoffs, never go all in and give up big prospects, but also haven’t won a division series. They’re betting on the crap shoot and could miss their window.

9:34

Paul Swydan: I think in the Nats case what Jeff said about the O’s being on a budget definitely applies to the Nats. Ted Lerner has made it clear he is only going to spend a certain amount on the team — even when it comes to the manager he will hire — so that definitely plays a role in Rizzo & Co’s decision-making. IMO, they do the best that they can.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Ultimately, they’re not going to win anything if Strasburg and Scherzer aren’t healthy.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s all up to the team

9:34	Johnny Rockport: 9:31 Paul – Like Astros fans?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yes, kind of like Astros fans.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I personally don’t know an Astros fan

9:35	Mike: Is Devers the second coming of Papi?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I hope he plays better defense

9:36	Paul Swydan: I think that’d be fantastic, but Ortiz logged 50 WAR in his career. I would never heap those expectations on a 20-year-old kid.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: … and I will bet on no.

9:36	Matt: Why does the word “toast” refer to someone being bad? I happen to prefer bread in it’s toast form, and think toast is more like the ages 27-30 seasons of bread.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I agree. Ah, the English language!

9:37	Paul Swydan: Right on cue, Devers strikes out with men on base. He is human!

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know but think I may have to look up the origins of the phrase.

9:38	Minty: Mejia on base 4 more times tonight and Cleveland’s catchers aren’t doing much. Just don’t get why he isn’t in AAA

9:38	Paul Swydan: I was told that Cleveland is very comfortable with their catchers and don’t want to make a switch midseason. I find that to be quite shortsighted, but we went through this same song and dance with Lindor. I thought Lindor was ready a year before they called him up.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: It may have to do with the catching instruction. With catchers, they may stay at a level because teams only have one good catcher coach.

9:39

Paul Swydan: And you’re seeing why right now. Lindor turned down $100+ million from them this past offseason. Even when Cleveland makes an honest effort to sign guys through their free-agent years, they’re going to have trouble. So they’ll ride it out with Gomes/Perez this year and hope they get hot as October starts.

9:40	PitchClocksPlease: Paul, Boston fans get a lot of stick (and rightfully so). But, the Fenway crowd giving Austin Jackson a standing ovation was class. Jackson robbing Hanley, tumbling over the fence into the Sox dugout has to be the catch of the year (so far).

9:40	Paul Swydan: Yeah. I turned to my son when that happened and I said, wow what a great play. And he waited a couple of beats and said, wait isn’t that bad for Boston? And I said, yeah, but you can still appreciate how good of a play that was. And he agreed. True story.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: It was a damn nice catch and crowd reaction.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Still, don’t give us Boston fans any sympathy. We’re insufferable.

9:41	Johnny Rockport: Are the Dodgers unstoppable? Even given the randomness of the playoffs?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Randomness aside, yes, as long as Kershaw comes back healthy and Hill/Wood stay healthy, I can’t see how they lose. They’re just too stacked.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Were the Mariners in 2001 unstoppable?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: A lot of stay healthy being thrown around

9:43	Paul Swydan: With all due respect, the 01 Mariners rolled out Sweaty Freddy, Aaron Sele and 38-year-old Jamie Moyer at the top of that rotation, and the bottom of it wasn’t much better.

9:43	CarrotJuice: JON LESTER 2000 K ALERT

9:43	Paul Swydan: Wow, all of the milestones tonight for Lester.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe he’ll pick off two batters …

9:44	Erik: It’s absolutely unfair to call anyone the next Cabrera/Pujols…but if anyone was the next Cabrera/Pujols, they would look a lot like Rafael Devers, right? Coming up at such a young age and showing excellent contact and power.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Yes, that’d be the idea. And, if you’ll recall, both Cabrera and Pujols started at 3B.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m just not completely on the band wagon yet

9:45	Murdoc: They mentioned on the Cleveland broadcast once that the front office would like to see Mejia’s English improve before he gets promoted.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Reasonable request.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m sorry, but that’s the kind of BS thing that teams like to say because they know we can’t disprove it. I’m sure his English is fine. If it wasn’t, all of his Double-A pitchers would be getting shelled on a nightly basis.

9:46

Matt: Regarding my comment abut O’s and grounding in reality. I understand both the fact that GM operates at mercy of owner, and budgets. But I consider owner part of the “FO” that should be grounded. Also, budgets and this and that but…sell Machado (though, I guess in fairness, there wasn’t really a market).

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I get what you’re saying, but owners are definitely not part of baseball ops. They’re very rich men, and in my experience, they aren’t usually at the ballpark on a day-to-day basis. Because they don’t have to be! They’re very rich men (and women) who do as they please.

9:47	Will: What’s your take on the 5-man OF situation the Yankee have going into next year? Dump ellsbury and rotate the other 4 with the DH slot?

9:49

Paul Swydan: As I wrote a few weeks ago, I don’t see them dumping Ellsbury. I think that Ellsbury has been dealt a lousy hand this summer because he got a concussion, and he wasn’t ready to come back, but they rushed him back when Hicks got hurt. Now he’s hitting like crap because he’s not 100% and everyone wants to get rid of him. But I’m sure Girardi and the Yankees front office knows they gave him a raw deal bringing him back too quickly.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they should eat the salary of the old guys via trade and release and look to pick up a FA stud. They’re the Yankees damn it.

9:49	Paul Swydan: I think rotating to DH is definitely a thing that will happen, and I also think they’ll look to trade Gardner this winter, because Gardner is having his best season since 2010, and he’ll never have more value than he will this winter.

9:50	Matt: Paul, I respect teaching respect, and understand that you like the Sox. But don’t you feel like you’re involved in a moral wrongdoing by teaching your son to like the Red Sox? They’re awful. Now, a team like the Yankees. They’re class A.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I laughed. 🙂

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I just want to see his kid with the full Boston accent.

9:51	Paul Swydan: You have seen him! He doesn’t have an accent. My daughter might though.

9:52

Erik: Would it be crazy to say that Devers will have more career WAR than Judge? Judge has the longer MLB track record, but it’s still super short, but Devers had a longer minor league track record and is 5 years younger. He also doesn’t have a history of scary strikeout rates. What do you think? How would you set the odds?

9:52	Paul Swydan: The 5 years younger is a big difference, but again, I think we’re jumping the gun with both of their careers.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I guess I’d set the odds, today, right this second, as 70% Judge, 30% Devers.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it may come down to position and defensive numbers. It’s what makes Trout and Harper great.

9:53	JHey: Thoughts on Doug Gottleib non sense?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I honestly don’t know what you’re talking about.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: None, I saw him trending and moved on

9:53	Matt: Paul, I agree with you 100% on Ellsbury. I differ in one point though. I’ve spent a lot of time arguing for him, showing people that his numbers drop after he gets injured. Then I realized that he gets injured All. The. Time.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: There is that.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Yeah, but that’s why they need to rotate him in 4 days a week. If they have Judge in RF, Hicks in CF, Frazier in LF (or Frazier in CF/Hicks in LF, whatever), and Ellsbury subbing in 3-4 times a week with the OF who’s subbed in moving to DH, then they can keep him healthy.

9:55

Paul Swydan: The Rockies, I felt, laid out a good plan for Todd Helton in his last few years. Management (manager and FO) sat down with him before each season and planned out his off-days, so that expectations were set and he didn’t get hard feelings when his name wasn’t on the lineup card. I think the Yankees should try the same thing.

9:56	Rated Rookie: McCullers and Calhoun too much to give up for Scherzer? Scherzer’s a rental and my pitching has been hot garbage.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Well, maybe wait and see what this Scherzer injury is all about first.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Got to wait right now

9:56	Paul Swydan: But, in general, no, if you’re trying to win, I’m comfortable with that trade.

9:56	einstein2u: Matz, what is wrong with him?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: He pitches for the Mets?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I mean, I’m sure he’ll implode now that I’m defending him, but he’s tossed four shutout innings tonight at Coors Field.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Also, he’s making his 10th start of the year tonight. He’s still in like, mid-May. Give it time.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Also, what Jeff said.

9:58

80 Grade Name: Is the Rays being a candidate for losing the deadline due to the deals they made or the deals they didn’t make? Hard to be upset at some new, better relievers and Lucas Duda while giving up spare parts and lottery tickets (KATOH says they actually added 0.1 prospect WAR since it likes the Beckham return). The Beckham trade was odd, but they didn’t have to do it so I’ll believe they had their reasons.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I dropped the ball there. Should have had O’s on the “lost” poll instead of Tampa.

9:59	weezy: what’s each of your favorite format for fantasy?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I didn’t mind Tampa’s moves. They are the minimum changes any contending team needs to make.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Dynasty, auction, roto, many keepers per team.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Roto 15-18 teams, auction