FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 8/31/16

by Paul Swydan

August 31, 2016

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Jamie Sayer: Is it safe to say 1st half Jake Lamb was a tad lucky while 2nd half Jake Lamb is a tad unlucky?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I think it’s more safe to say the latter part. I think Lamb is pretty good, and his first half BABIP wasn’t so high.

9:04	Paul Swydan: The ISO was high though. Yeah I guess it would be safe to say what you said.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Some, also his plate discipline has gotten worse.

9:04	Nathan: Alot has been said about an assortment of Brewers the last couple weeks. I think we should talk about another. Tyler Thornburg has looked dominant. How do you guys feel about him?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Like him. Cameron covered him awhile back. I was surprised he wasn’t traded at the 7/31 deadline.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: He is a good pitcher before the Brewers traded off their other closers and is still a good one.

9:06	Mike: I heard tebow has 65-80 grade power, But he only hit 2 doubles and no bombs in his tryout. Why should I believe in power based on bp? Evan ichiro hit bombs in bp.

9:06	Paul Swydan: You don’t need to believe it all. It’s a free country, Mike!

9:06	Paul Swydan: Believe it AT all

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: But his Contact% was All-Star quality (looking for link)….

9:07	James: What’s your take on Corey Seager’s defense? He’s a Gold Glover by UZR standards but is league average in DRS.

9:07	Paul Swydan: I think it’s probably closer to what DRS says. Either way, it’ll play.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Tebow: https://twitter.com/OGTedBerg/status/770952457262362624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is average at SS … I could be wrong

9:08	Dat Dude: Todd Frazier: 33 HRs, 96 wRC+…lol wut

9:09	Paul Swydan: It’s happened before – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dante-bichettes-unbelievable-1999-season/

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Chicks dig the long ball

9:09

Dominik: How big of a disadvantage is coors for the rockies to build a winner? Not talking about road hangover but pitching. Opponent has the disadvantage too but with 81 games I guess that ends up in a lot more pitches thrown and thus fatigue for the Rockies pitchers. Basically they would need another roster spot.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think the only disadvantage is that it is harder to attract free-agent pitchers to Colorado. Other than that, I don’t see it as a disadvantage – I see it as different. Different is OK.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: and pitchers don’t want to go to Coors, so the staff will really be used to the max

9:11	Josh: Ruling out the second half of the Dodgers/Rockies doubleheader on the poll?

9:11	Paul Swydan: It was on the cusp, but it’s August 31st, I think we can limit to above-.500 teams at this point.

9:11	Kyle Hendricks: I’m the only pitcher that hasn’t given up more than 4 ER in a single start all season, and even that’s only happened twice. 20 of my 25 starts were 2 ER or less. How is there even a debate about the CY this year?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Because there’s still a month left to the season, and because we like to debate things.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: and strikeouts are kewl

9:13	Jim Lonborg: How does Silver Slugger work? Is Leon a candidate, or is there a (formal or informal) PA minimum?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know for sure how they are awarded

9:13	Paul Swydan: Someone on Twitter sent me a link that said there is a 400 PA minimum, so it’s unlikely that Leon gets there.

9:14

John Olerud: So, last week I asked whether to start Duffy @ BOS. Paul, I understood your inclination to go for it (I don’t think Jeff had joined the chat yet), but I opted not to, and I’m glad I did. I also opted not to start Smyly @BOS today, which admittedly was much less of difficult decision, but still… Anyways, I’m not trying to enjoy some “I told you so” moment here, but I was just wondering whether you think we’ve reach a point within this season where (figuratively speaking) an @BOS start and an @COL are in the “same ballpark”?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Yep, that was a bad call by me. Sorry. I don’t, though. I watched the Sox struggle to score 3 runs last night. The offense has struggled for the last month. Or, at least, it hasn’t been as automatic.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I usually play in deep enough leagues where sitting Smyly or Duffy would mean starting Chase Anderson.

9:16

Rob: I have a competitive squad in a 14 team mixed. About six weeks ago, somebody inexplicably dumped Jedd Gyorko so I picked him up but haven’t had the stones to put him in the lineup. Would you start him over any of Kipnis (2B), Bogaerts (SS), Longoria (3B) or Hosmer (CI)? It’s a H2H format (unfortunately).

9:16	Paul Swydan: Xander had been struggling, so you probably could play him there. But this is one of those good problems for sure. That’s a good squad you have.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so, but at least someone isn’t using him against you

9:17	VampWeekAtBern: How often, if ever, would it make sense for a team to deploy five infielders with two Billy Hamiltons in the outfield? I could imagine it sometimes working when pitching against pitchers or groundball hitters.

9:18	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t play that alignment unless you were in a do or die situation, or unless you had a guy with a 60% + GB% on the mound, and those pitchers don’t exactly grow on trees.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Not very often, but I think a tea may do it to really mess with a hitter.

9:19	Minty: Moncada is on the AFL roster but Farrel seems to want him up now. Any guesses as to how this shakes out?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Lindbergh and Miller’s book talks about using it a couple times

9:19	Paul Swydan: They did, yeah. But only sparingly.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:20	Paul Swydan: RE: Moncada – If he gets called up, and is playing well enough to be on the playoff roster, then he’ll be on it. If not, then he’ll go to the AFL. AFL isn’t going to stand in the way of the big league roster, that’s for sure.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: With Moncada, I think he will help the MLB team as much as possible and then play the AFL if can

9:20	Billy: How come Tanaka isn’t even being mentioned in Cy Young talks in a wide open AL?

9:21	Paul Swydan: That’s a fantastic question, I have no idea.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, he should get some votes once people look at the entire season’s work.

9:22	Adam: Ichiro currently sporting his highest wOBA since 2010. Going out with a bang or enough to warrant another 1-year deal?

9:22	Paul Swydan: If I had to guess I’d say retire. But I’ve been wrong before.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Retire, what has he got to prove

9:23	Rated Rookie: Paul (mostly): are you excited for Moncada?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I am intrigued. I think the hype is a little too much right now

9:23	Paul Swydan: Trying to tamp down my excitement, because he plays third base, and oleeeee Johnny Farrell has three veterans there that he can play. And you know ole Johnny Farrell loves him some veterans. But yes, very excited in a vacuum.

9:24	Jimmy: Should players swing more on 3-0 counts? I always get frustrated watching them watch a fastball right over the plate and then work themselves into a 3-2 count. Does the data suggest that more positive comes out of not swinging 3-0 than swinging 3-0?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Yes, probably, but players are hardwired to make the pitcher throw a strike, and it’s hard to undo years of programming like that.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it close on the 3-0 count on swing/no swing, but I do know they do swing too much on 3-1

9:25	Paul Swydan: And when you unprogram some of it, sometimes you mess other things up. Like in that episode of “Married With Children” when Al teaches Kelly all the sports trivia he can and then she forgets that Al once scored 4 touchdowns in one game for Polk High.

9:25	Paul Swydan: (Dating myself with that reference)

9:26	Murdoc: Pretend you live in a city with minor league baseball. For your own viewing pleasure, would you prefer it to be A, AA, or AAA?

9:26	Paul Swydan: A or AA. Definitely not AAA. AAA is depressing.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: AA IMO, Paul is right about AAA, the demotions can be a horrible group of players.

9:28	Jim Lonborg: What does Coco Crisp bring these days? The metrics don’t seem to care for his defense that much anymore.

9:28	Paul Swydan: A fun name, veteran moxie, decent pop and near-scratch baserunning.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Not much, but they didn’t really give anything up. He could be a smart base runner with the expanded rosters.

9:29

Vic Romano: 10th and final keeper in a keep forever league – Addison Russell or Willson Contreras? No doubt many teams will be keeping an SS with the position being fairly rich with talent right now, and thus less interested in drafting one next year, so I’m thinking that keeping the catcher instead would be a nice zig while everyone else is zagging.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I would go with Russell, I don’t like how catcher’s age and unless it is a 2 catcher league, I find the catcher position easy to fill

9:31

Paul Swydan: I see what you’re saying there. But since his callup, he’s had FIVE stretches of three or more games where he hasn’t started. If you could tell me for certain that David Ross was retiring, OK, keep Contreras. But Joe Maddon, when given the opportunity, is going to some super cute Joe Maddon things. He has to play Russell every day, but he doesn’t with Contreras. So because of that I’d stick with Russell.

9:31	Rick: Harold Reynolds just called Freddy Galvis a championship-quality shortstop. Agree or Disagree?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree that Reynolds would say that comment.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: And Galvis is a player I see as replacement level

9:33	Paul Swydan: If the standard for what he’s saying is that Galvis could be the starting shortstop on a championship-winning team, then I’ll agree. If he is saying something else, then no.

9:33

Da Bum: The sun slowly creeps lower, saying it’s final goodbye with an array of fiery color. The sun dips behind the horizon as the colors begin to fade. The suns majestic bat flip of a sunset gives way as the room becomes basked in moonlight. You watch the darkness creep across the room. People begin to emerge as the darkness grows. Just before the room fills you set your dastardly plan in motion. You’re prepared this week. You wait. Just before your patience gives way to frustration it happens. This time you don’t cry out, you wait for the culprit to do the crying. Suddenly you hear a voice that seems to be just a few inches away scream, “Alright, who the heck isn’t wearing any pants!” The voice is female … (to be continued)

9:34	Paul Swydan: There it is.

9:34

dprat: Dynasty league: looking at next year and beyond, I’ve got a pretty good offense, but struggling to put together the back end of a starting rotation in a league where frontline starters are almost never traded. I have three spots I can make available. So, ignoring the rest of 2016, my options: Berrios, Chad Green, Manaea, Musgrove, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brock Stewart, Triggs, Ventura? Which three ya’ got?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Rodriguez, Musgrove, Berrios? Not feeling super confident about this one.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Berrios for sure. I really don’t know on the rest. I would go with Triggs and Musgrove on the unknown, but now for sure. Maybe go with the highest K% and hope the pitcher finds control like Scherzer did

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: You need to aim for upside here

9:37	Paul Swydan: I feel strongest about Rodriguez (most demonstrated track record in the majors) and Berrios (most upside).

9:38	Rick: Dozier, Altuve, Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia–which second baseman would you rather have for this year, for next year, and for the length of his current contract?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Altuve for all three. Not 100% on each’s contract though

9:39	Paul Swydan: I mean, Altuve is at 4.5, 6 and 6.5 mill for 17-19

9:39	Paul Swydan: hard to top that

9:39	Murdoc: How do you prefer to handle your starting pitcher in a blowout, leave him in and let him coast or save his arm and take him out?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Depends on the pitcher, but as a general rule in these days where pitchers don’t do the whole coasting thing, I’d err on taking him out.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: It would really depend on the pitcher, too many variables to go with one approach

9:40	Ryan: Is Rich Hill just trolling Dodger fans at this point? Scratched from his start again, today….

9:40	Paul Swydan: Nah, he just old.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: and the Dodgers love acquiring injured pitchers. They deserve the trolling

9:41	ginsugarland: D-Backs front office for AJ Preller. Who says no?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Prob San Diego.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: SD for sure, the D-Backs FO is a disaster

9:42	Brian: Does Bryant have a chance of MVP with Arenado’s performance (even though he isn’t on a playoff team)?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely. I don’t think Arenado is the frontrunner.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Bryant’s got a good chance

9:43

Roger: Has anyone done a study to determine if there is a “trade deadline penalty” (similar to the DH or PH penalty) that tends to cause players who change teams at the deadline to perform worse with their new team? Seems like it might be reasonable to expect as much (exceptions like Cespedes notwithstanding) simply because a player is distracted by getting used to a new city, new teammates, etc.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Jeff probably knows this one better than I do, so I’ll defer to him.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: None I know of. I did look at players changing leagues and teams (FG+) from one season to the next and found no adjustment period.

9:45	Paul Swydan: There is also the Matt Swartz OPP study (studies) that are related but not the same thing.

9:46	Ryan: Is Joey Votto worth 5.6 WAR (per Baseball Prospectus) or 2.6 WAR (per Baseball Reference)? Or something in between (per Fangraphs)?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t trust BP’s numbers right now. Yesterday they had Jered Weaver at -7.2 WAR. Something seems off with their numbers right now

9:47	Paul Swydan: That’s a good question. Both us and B-Ref give him demerits for his defense. Would need to look closer at BPs numbers.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49127

9:48	Pedro: What do we learn from Carlos Gomez?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Injured players can fall apart quickly?

9:49	Paul Swydan: That you shouldn’t always let injured players suit up just because they have a high tolerance for pain.

9:49	Da Bum: Of the current playoff teams, what rotation would you take?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Nationals probably. Maybe Cubs.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Cleveland is in the discussion

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Each one has some glaring warts.

9:50	Paul Swydan: That they are.

9:50	Da Bum: Excited for football or strictly baseball guys?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I’m excited for the Patriots, but my interest level in the NFL is fading rapidly.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I like football, but don’t really get into it until the WS is over.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Celtics/NBA and BU hockey/NCAA hockey are higher than the Pats/NFL on my priority list now. And obviously baseball.

9:52	Brian: What game are you watching right now (if any), while chatting with us? I’m watching Pirates-Cubs.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing, enjoying some quite time.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Was going to watch TOR-BAL, but I am wiped to be honest, so I’m listening to some old school Raekwon to keep me awake. 🙂

9:52

Zach: This is a super random question just out of pure curiosity that will go down as the most insignificant question in FanGraphs history. Today the Orioles traded with the Pirates to acquire Kyle Lobstein, which is the least exciting move in the history of baseball. Two hours later, they acquired Drew Stubbs off waivers and DFA’d Lobstein to make room for him. Was there anything tactical here that I’m missing or was it just a case of “Oh hey we got Stubbs. Eh, on second thought, we don’t need Lobstein”?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the latter

9:54

Paul Swydan: I think it’s one of those things where Duquette probably thought he could sneak Lobstein through waivers and still keep him on the roster today and then call him up when rosters expand. And also, if he didn’t end up getting Stubbs (which he probably wasn’t certain of when he acquired Lobstein) then he wouldn’t have needed to make all those roster moves.

9:54	Paul Swydan: I could be wrong though. Perhaps they will simply lose Lobstein.

9:54	Da Bum: I’m a former journalist so this is a personal interest question … has covering MLB made your enjoyment of watching games fade? The whole burnout from over exposure and seeking an escape from your work thing.

9:55	Paul Swydan: No, when I have time, I still enjoy sitting on the couch with a book and watching the game. Or going to the ballpark. I still buy tickets for 6-7 games a season, and I love my bleacher seats. But my free time is limited to the point where I don’t get to watch as much as I want to.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: No. I do go in the approach of fun or work with the game. I try to never mix them

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think the one thing this job has helped with is that I don’t take the losses as hard as I used to.

9:56	Jimmy: Has anyone ever considered using a bullpen arm or two to start a game and then go to “starter”? Any rationale for doing that?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Yeah, it’s an approach that has been bandied about, and it might have even been tried in a few situations, though none come to mind.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I think there is in a winner take all game, but not otherwise.

9:58	Bill: Jeff, How does Ben Gamel help the Mariners and what’s his contract situation?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Yeah Jeff? What’s up with that?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Ben Gamel (was with Yankees previously right). He has fallen off some this season. I think the Mariners have 6 more years of full control left on him.