FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/20/16

by Paul Swydan

September 20, 2016

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Be sure to let me know which Sesame Street monster you pick if you voted Other. There are enough for a second poll but I’m too lazy for that.

9:01	The Decadent Moose: Better athlete at 3b: Bregman or Moncada.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Moncada is the better athlete, so he will be the better athlete at 3B

9:02	Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t know enough about Bregman’s athleticism, but based on Moncada’s higher prospect standing I’d have to think him.

9:02

Dominik: there is definitely a trend for smaller guys aiming for higher launch angles regarding the home runs. however there are also quite a few guys who are not good hitters despite the Hrs. trumbo, k. Davis, Frazier, Kemp, odor, Duvall and pujols all have below average OBP and 30+ hr. Tomas and Bruce will join them, and Grandy, Miller and Jones probably too. obviously it worked for some like Altuve, Betts but could some of the smaller guys like Galvis actually lose production by selling out for power? or do they still gain?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so

9:03	Paul Swydan: Trumbo has a 119 wRC+ this season and is at 110 for his career. Seems odd to not call him a good hitter.

9:03	Paul Swydan: He might not do “everything,” so to speak, but he’s still pretty good.

9:04	Paul Swydan: As for the selling out part, maybe, but as teams get more comfortable with this data we are going to see guys alter their approach to try and take advantage of it. For some it’ll work and others it won’t.

9:04	Jackson C: Should Mookie Betts’s drop in production (most notably HR) during the month of September be attributed to pitchers finally pitching to him like a 30+ HR guy rather than a slappy lead-off guy?

9:05	Paul Swydan: No it should be attributed to the fact that baseball is hard and sometimes guys go through slumps.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: They could have change their approach against him

9:05	Fire Kevin Cash: Why don’t we adjust batting metrics for quality of pitching?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Just too much IMO, but I could someone do it in the future.

9:06

Paul Swydan: It’s a good question. My guess is that on the team level it wouldn’t change much, and on the player level there would be a lot of noise. For instance, say you’re getting Clayton Kershaw on 3 days rest vs. 4 days rest. Or you’re getting Yu Darvish’s first start coming back from Tommy John versus peak Darvish. There are a lot of variables that go into something like this, and I don’t know that you could fit a model or whatever as well as you think you’d be able to.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Having said that, it’s certainly worth exploring.

9:07	Patrick: Do you think Mookie Betts has a strong case to get Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger for the PF?

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, I am not going to guess how the GG get awarded

9:08	Paul Swydan:

9:08	Patrick: Robby Scott – should he be on the Red Sox postseason roster over Abad?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Huh?

9:09

Paul Swydan: I think there’s a chance that neither of them gets on, but if I have to pick, at this juncture I think so. Look at their gmLI – Scott is ahead of Abad for the month, and that’s notable, since these are the first innings of Scott’s career: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2016&month=9&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d

9:10	Paul Swydan: Having said that, for the month, Scott is Farrell’s 8th-most leverage reliever, so…

9:10	Paul Swydan: And the two guys behind him, Kelly and Tazawa, both have strong cases for inclusion.

9:10	Rick: Have you read the Theo profile on ESPN? How epic was that, he’s way cooler than my I even imagined him to be

9:10	Paul Swydan: I haven’t yet. I will at some point.

9:10	Paul Swydan: PAPI SMASH!!!

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope

9:11	Byron: Do you think MLB will ever try to put a stop to baseball “fights”? I’d be okay with players getting suspended for a month for trying to start a fight by throwing at someone or charging the mound or getting upset that someone’s looking at you

9:12	Paul Swydan: No, you can’t legislate stuff like that. If guys get riled up, they’re going to do stupid things, and no manner of potential punishment is going to stop them.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Guys have literally punched walls before. Walls! Do you know how stupid that is?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Not for a while, no incentive to crack down. If they didn’t crack down after Greinke’s incident, they never will

9:13	Cam: Baseball very rarely has fights anyway – 99% of the time, it’s just posturing.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: True

9:13	Paul Swydan: This is also true. And the fights, such as they are, rarely last long. Not that that’s a reason to not want to get rid of them, I just think the Commissioner’s Office has bigger fish to fry.

9:13	Jim Lonborg: Argh don’t chat about Red Sox things before they happen on MLB.tv.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Sorry Jim!

9:14	Paul Swydan: At least it was good news?

9:14	Jack: Is there any truly legit argument for why Kershaw shouldnt win the Cy young? He is back to being tied for the most WAR and I don’t think anyone actually believes that what he was doing was a fluke. It really feels like it comes down to “this is just how it is”

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: He may be the best pitcher this season, but I have no problem looking past WAR and going with another pitcher who threw all season.

9:15	Paul Swydan: If you want to argue that there is an added benefit to Syndergaard’s extra ~40 innings of work that you can’t account for in WAR, I’m open to that argument. It wouldn’t sway me personally, but I think there is validity to it.

9:16	Travis: Freeman or Rizzo in 2017?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Real life, Freeman, Rizzo in fantasy (more RBIs and Runs)

9:17	Paul Swydan: From a fantasy perspective, I’m inclined to say Rizzo until Freeman gets teammates that he can drive in. Rizzo has a 17 RBI lead right now, and most everything else is really close.

9:17	Paul Swydan: In general, I like Rizzo better anyway. He strikes out less frequently.

9:18	Cracker Jack: Do you foresee Hernan Perez, Domingo Santana, and/or Keon Broxton getting in the way of Lewis Brinson on the 40 man next year? That’s all supposing Ryan Braun is dealt…and not for Yasiel Puig…

9:18	Paul Swydan: I think they’ll be able to find a place for Brinson on the 40-man roster without displacing one of those guys.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: There will be a pitcher gone first

9:18	Paul Swydan: If they all end up in a job share…well, that’s what you call a good problem.

9:18	Paul Swydan: But, yeah, agree with Jeff, the largesse on a 40-man roster is usually with the pitching side.

9:19	Tommy from Quincy: What are the Sox going to do with Blake Swihart? Seems like they moved him off catcher too fast and he doesent hit enough to be a real corner outfielder. Did the sox destroy his value in an ill advised move to slightly upgrade left field?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I think they absolutely destroyed what little value he had by moving him to left field. I think they have to just put him in Triple-A to start 2017 and hope he hits well enough to force his way onto a major league roster. It probably won’t be Boston’s though.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he should move on to someone else now

9:20	Giancarlo Stanton: What do you make of me going into next year? I’ve been striking out a lot more over the past two years and some are calling me the Tulowitzki of the OF :'(

9:20	Paul Swydan: Who is calling you that, Giancarlo? Because that is just a weird thing to call you.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I think you’ll be fine, though it would be nice if you could stay on the field for an entire season.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: You will be fine and I see myself picking you up in many fantasy leagues

9:21	Cracker Jack: If you’re AJ Preller, are you sending out this song before the winter meetings? Is what he did unique to San Diego?

9:22	Paul Swydan: God I love this song.

9:22	Paul Swydan: That pic is slightly menacing though.

9:22	Priorities In Order: I wonder what the preseason odds would have been in Vegas on a prop bet that Kyle Hendricks would lead the majors in ERA. Forget killing Baby Hitler, that’s the kind of thing I would use a time machine for.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he really screwed himself going forward.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Well, that’s pretty selfish, you jerk.

9:23	ChatzMcGee: Do you think it’s possible that Joey Votto has been possessed by Ted Williams?

9:23	Paul Swydan: He wishes.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: No.

9:25	Borkenstein: Would you rather have your leadoff hitter single off Kershaw on the first pitch or strike out on 20 pitches?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Single.

9:25	Paul Swydan: No out > Out

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Twenty pitches, I would have fouled off 16 of them. I made contact 16 times

9:26	Stifflers mom: Hanley Ramirez possible hof? His counting stats will end up being sexy maybe 450 hr 350 sb. Advanced metrics will kill him though.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Not only are advanced metrics incredibly down on his defense, but for the bulk of his career he was considered a malcontent and a manager killer. I love Hanley, but unless he really has a late-career renaissance, I don’t see it at all.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: No chance

9:27	Paul Swydan: He also has played multiple positions and played for multiple teams, so no one voting bloc is going to be overly sympathetic toward him.

9:27	Cam: Thoughts on what contract Rich Hill is looking to get this off-season? 2/35, 3/45 maybe?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I would assume this will be the nature of his contract demands, yes. Perhaps he’ll want a third year with a slightly lower AAV.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Three with heavy,easy incentives. Some team will be forced to go three years and I would not surprised if he gets 4 years.

9:30

grant: so madbum. yeah, the snot blowing country boy. seems like he gets a pass for being a dick and a thug…yes he has a great postseason résumé. but he is a thug and a goon and the media seems to let him be that way just bc he’s a “good ol’ country boy”. if he was black and from the inner city, everyone would be calling him a thug.

9:31

Paul Swydan: I guess my only defense of this would be that the only player I’ve seen him have continuous beef with is Puig. Having said that, yes, he does seem like kind of a red @$$, and there is quite the double standard in terms of how certain players are covered. To his credit, the great Ken Rosenthal noted this earlier today on Twitter.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep. His act is starting to get thin now

9:31	Jimmy: A lot of talk about how Pineda gives up an inordinate amount of hits with 2 strikes and/or 2 outs. Does Pineda actually give up more hits than expected with 2 strikes or two outs? Is it luck as to when in the count or with how many outs a pitcher gives up hits?

9:32

Paul Swydan: I haven’t looked into this, but given that he is quite capable of getting strike 3, I’d say that this is either a) you putting more weight on the “bad beats” than you should or b) fluky. It doesn’t make sense that he would have some weird 2-strike mojo since he is good at getting strike 3. Not to me, anyway.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the lack of a third pitch hurts him. The breaker doesn’t get the plate so hitters can sit on the fastball

9:33	j: Who’s your pick Nats or Dodgers?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Dodgers

9:34	Paul Swydan: I’d like more time to think about it, but, gun to my head, Dodgers. I think they’re more or less even, but it’s hard for me to pick a team managed by Dusty Baker to win a postseason series.

9:34	Jim Lonborg: Are the Red Sox likely to pick up Buchholz’s option? Should they, if only to trade him?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Given that he had some success in relief and that they refused to cut him when his season hit its nadir, I think they’ll probably pick it up, and use him in the same 6th starter/long man/set up man role he served this year.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think he has much trade value, but I would sign him with the lack of pitching available

9:35	Paul Swydan: Unless of course he starts barking about being guaranteed a starting spot. Then you have to cut him.

9:36	Raj: Is Brandon Moss a decent target for the Jays as a low cost EE replacement this offseason?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Absolutely.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they can aim higher.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Though it’s been a couple of years since he was really good.

9:37	Raj: Which team most needs to get their star shortstop signed to an extension–Dodgers, Nats, Astros, or Indians?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Probably the Indians. The other three teams all have large budgets and are better equipped to go year-to-year with their shortstops in arbitration.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Indians or Astros, the teams with a limited budget.

9:38

Horace: Manfred looks strangely injudicious concerning Preller/Pomeranz situation–hard to believe the matter is “closed.” For now, Red Sox need even a reduced Pomeranz, but, when the post-season is over, can you see Sox FO trying to mount an offensive led by angry Werner to get restitution, namely, return Pomeranz for Espinoza, or acquire another SD minor leaguer?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Nope, I think Werner and the Sox will play nice, and just refuse to deal with Preller in the future. Ultimately, that won’t matter much, since the other teams aren’t going to do the same.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I do believe the matter is done

9:39	Trent: Is Jean Segura a league average infielder next year?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Yes, I think he will be at least that good.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, he is going to subject to BABIP swings

9:40	Harry Caray’s Ghost: Grandpa Rossy just scored from first on a Jon Lester double. That’s better than anything that will happen in any of the games in that “best matchup” poll.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Fair enough. (This happened roughly an hour ago, FYI)

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: The night is still young

9:41	Roger: Reds, Brewers, Phillies, Braves–the closest to a wild card spot next year will be … ?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Brewers or Phillies

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:42	Rick: Do the Nats pick up Gio’s 12MM option? Seems reasonable for a decent innings-eater, but the Nats also have some pitching depth already, and the Nats could use the money to help replace Ramos/Melancon

9:43	Paul Swydan: It’s been awhile since I checked, but the last time I did, Lerner was like the 8th richest man in the country. I never want to hear anything pertaining to the Nationals’ budget.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: They may be able to sign and trade. And teams can never have enough pitching

9:43	Rick: Which baserunner should the Cubs be most worried about victimizing Lester, etc in the post season?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Oh that’s a fun one. Trea Turner immediately leaped to mind.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Sadly, that’s pretty much it. The NL contenders are depressingly bereft of plus basestealers.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Good one … all the speedsters I can think of are not on playoff teams

9:45	JayBruceSleeveFluff: The Count! for ss creatures

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Solid

9:46	Paul Swydan: What a good choice, AH AH AH!

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: That was bad Paul, 2 push ups

9:47	Paul Swydan: For the record, Cookie Monster is running away with that poll. 13 votes to 7 for Oscar and 5 for Grover.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Put those push ups on my tab!

9:47

Brad: Tyler O’neill almost hit for the triple crown in AA, it is his second really good year in the minors, is at an age appropriate level, but doesnt seem to rank well in the lists, I know there is bias against 1B and LF, but who cares where he plays if he hits….. What are your thoughts on his potential?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: He seems to be getting the Goldschmidt treatment because of position.

9:49	Paul Swydan: He got love on Chris’ updated KATOH 100 – he ranked 23rd – so there is definitely something there. The bigger issue is that the Mariners are well stocked on outfielder/first base types.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Maybe he’s a trade candidate. Or will have to wait for the M’s to clear their glut.

9:50	alpha: I don’t think Lester should win the Cy, but shouldn’t he be getting just a little bit of ink in the conversation? His second half has been brilliant, and the season as a whole has been solid. He feels like he is flying under the radar just a little bit

9:50	Paul Swydan: I often thought that he was perpetually underrated in Boston, which stems from him always being very good but rarely being excellent and noteworthy.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I am pretty sure he will end up in the top 5, tough to make a chase for him at #1, so people aren’t

9:51	TengoPreguntas: I’d love to see Kyle Hendricks win the cy young just to read the, “who the fk” is kyle hendricks comments

9:51	Paul Swydan: That actually did bring a smile to my face, though I can’t say I would read too many of those comments, so the joy would be fleeting.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Hendricks would be fun, but I think it is Max’s

9:52	Larry Bernandez: Most consistent active player since the start of his career? Votto? Pedroia?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Mike Trout’s full season wRC+’s – 167, 176, 167, 172, 170. Hard to be more consistent than that, with bonus points for that consistency being of an amazing quality.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said

9:53	Nick: Thoughts on the bumgarner-puig dustup?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Bumgarner was pretty clearly wrong. All Puig did was turn around to walk back to the dugout.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t really care. Just doesn’t matter

9:54	Paul Swydan: Also that.

9:54	1B on a Budget: Is Rizzo’s remaining 5 year, $54M contract the best in the game right now? Because that’s pretty damn insane.

9:55	Paul Swydan: It’s right up there, though again, hard to beat Trout’s deal too.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see it as one of the 2nd year guys like Correa with 500K coming for 2 more years.

9:56	glenn: Sanchez for ROY right?

9:56	xmx: how compelling of an argument has Sanchez made for ROY?

9:56	tom: did you see that Sanchez 3 run bomb ? amazing

9:57	Paul Swydan: I think Sanchez has a great case. It’s essentially down to him and Michael Fulmer at this point, with Naquin, Diaz, and maybe one or two others getting some love.

9:57	Paul Swydan: My Nomar Mazara pick fizzled around midseason, sadly.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: It will be interesting to see how voters look at his limited playing time

9:57	Stewie: Do you think Joe Maddon could out drink Tony Larussa?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Well that wins the “strangest question of the night” award!

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I hope not

9:58	TeamGrover: Cookie Monster sucks now that he’s stopped eating cookies all the time and started eating vegetables. And Grover is how I learned the difference between “near” and “far”.

9:59	Paul Swydan: I mean, I think it’s OK that Cookie eats other food sometimes, as long as he still loves his COOKIES. But yes, Grover is pretty chill. He’s near the top of my list.

9:59	Paul Swydan: I sometimes pick the kids up and “fly” them around the house Super Grover style.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Also Grover is in “There is a Monster at the End of this Book”

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yes, that is a classic book. I just read that to my daughter the other day.