FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/2/14
5:37 |
: Hi everybody!
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5:38 |
: I’ll be here at 9 pm ET to chat. There are some fun polls already up. See you soon!
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9:01 |
I think I’m flying solo tonight, so let’s get to it! |
9:02 |
So if Verlander has a bad outing tomorrow, which headline do you like more: “Indians Expose Verlander” or “Junk Baller: Verlander Looks Poor on the Mound, Too”? |
9:03 |
: Expose is probably the only one of the two that would actually fly, and even that is iffy.
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9:03 |
: But you’re thinking. I like that.
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9:03 |
How would you line up the Orioles’ rotation for an ALDS matchup? |
9:04 |
: Tillman, Gausman, Chen, Gonzalez
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9:04 |
: I think the basic point is this – the Orioles aren’t going anywhere unless Gausman steps up, so get him in there early and hope for the best.
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9:04 |
Who would you draft first next year: Justin Verlander, Homer Bailey or CC Sabathia? |
9:04 |
: Sabathia, probably.
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9:04 |
I am probably the only person that noticed this, but Nate Jones’ 2014 stats look screwy. He faced 5 batters without recording an out, but the ERA/FIP/xFIP calcs assume he pitched an entire inning. |
9:05 |
: Noted for posterity. Thanks!
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9:05 |
Hi, would you drop any of Bruce, Baez or Pollock for Mookie Betts ROS? Thanks! |
9:05 |
: Yes, you can probably live without Pollock or Bruce at this point.
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9:05 |
My favorite Fangraphs feature is age (particulary for deceased players). If Charley Radbourn were still alive today he would be 159 y, 8 m, 22 d old! |
9:05 |
: I enjoy this as well.
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9:05 |
Keep 15 : when it gets down to the last 2, do you go with a 3rd and 4th pitcher, prospects, or a combo? |
9:06 |
: Depends on the pitchers, but I probably want at least one prospect. Gotta be a good one though. Don’t just keep a guy to keep him because he’s a prospect. Top 25.
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9:06 |
If I’m out of it, is it better to dynasty stock with a Buxton like prospect or one that may not do much until next year like Taveras or Joc Pederson? |
9:07 |
: Well, dynasty means different things in different leagues. If it’s really in perpetuity, then Buxton. If not, then take Joc.
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9:07 |
Is it worse to have no hope, like Rockies fans, or false hope , like the Astros? |
9:07 |
: Rockies fans have more false hope than the Astros, I think, since they actually have star talent. But, it’s definitely worse to have no hope. With false hope, you can at least enjoy a portion of the season.
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9:08 |
Does a Baez+someone for Hamels make sense in the offseason, or is that whack? |
9:08 |
: In real life? I don’t think the Cubs need to make that trade. Easier for them to just sign Scherzer.
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9:09 |
Carrasco nearly a K/IP on the season and has looked very good since returning to the rotation. Do you see him doing anything differently to explain the better command? Is this sustainable for the 2015 rotation? Nearly a K/IP would make for a nice sleeper. |
9:09 |
: I haven’t checked his splits to see, but I remember early in the season that we thought he was getting very unlucky. I’d wager that his luck has simply changed.
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9:09 |
D. Pompey has been called up. Does he show enough ROS to warrant consideration for 2015 job? |
9:09 |
: You want to check Kiley’s post from today on that score. Good stuff from Kiley.
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9:09 |
Completely hypothetical: Sea and Det tie for the 2nd wildcard spot, which means they play a one game playoff for the right to get into a one game playoff, correct? If so, if you are Seattle do you start Felix against Det, or hope to save him for the second one game playoff? |
9:10 |
: I save Felix and go bullpen game. And yes, you are correct. This is what happened last year.
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9:10 |
Im watching the Jays vs Rays game, there must be between 1-2 thousand people there. What to do with the Rays? |
9:10 |
: I still say move them to Santo Domingo, but maybe I’m just a dreamer.
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9:10 |
Evenin’! Who should I keep for the next 3 years in a league with a $260 budget and some inflation (top guys go for $60 or so), and BB and XBH as additional categories: Tulo for $39 or Dee for $6? Thanks! |
9:11 |
: Dee for $6, not even close.
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9:11 |
: I’d want to keep both, but that’s a lot of money for a half season of Tulo, which is all you can count on.
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9:11 |
Completely appropriate use of your (or someone at fangraphs’s) time: find the game that caused the largest single drop in a team’s % chance to make the post season, and then find the most important event in that game (via WPA or some mumbo jumbo) and, well…let’s just call it the scapegoat algorithm. |
9:12 |
: That is actually a cool exercise. Thanks for pointing it out!
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9:12 |
Care to break out your crystal ball and give me your top 3 early candidates for 2015 American League ROY? |
9:13 |
: Oh man, we did this question last week I think. Joey Gallo, Carlos Rodon are right there.
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9:13 |
I have been away from fangraphs for a month. What have i missed? |
9:14 |
: Well, we hired Neil Weinberg, Drew Fairservice, Kiley McDaniel and Ron Shah for the main blog. So that’s been pretty neat. And we launched InstaGraphs, which is also pretty neat.
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9:14 |
The Indians seem to be making a decent run, despite selling at the deadline. What do you think their prospects are for making the playoffs this year and in 2015? |
9:15 |
: Ya, the Masterson and Cabrera things.
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9:15 |
: Well, they were both going to be free agents, and both candidates to accept a qualifying offer if one was made.
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9:16 |
: So, I don’t see that so much as selling as it is getting what they could for them. They weren’t coming back, so it wasn’t that big of a deal to trade them. Especially since neither was playing all that spectacularly.
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9:16 |
As for this year and next, still decent. Neither the Royals or Tigers have a stranglehold on that division, and of the three teams, Cleveland clearly has the best manager. |
9:16 |
who would you rather have – Soler or Joc? |
9:17 |
: Soler because he’s going to play.
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9:17 |
Do we see Lucas Giolito in 2015? |
9:17 |
: Maybe late. He still hasn’t hit Double-A, and he’ll only be 20 next year.
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9:17 |
Can you see rusney and betts both starting next year for Bost? |
9:18 |
: Honestly, I can’t. With Cespedes, Victorino and Craig around, I think there are trades coming.
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9:18 |
Does it make more sense for the Nationals to take Scott Hairston or Tyler Moore into the postseason? |
9:18 |
: Depends on the needs of each series, but I would probably vote Hairston.
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9:19 |
Are you worried about the Rays limiting Jake Mcgee’s saves to save in arb? |
9:19 |
: No, I’m not sure why I would worry about a thing like that. We didn’t just wake up and find out the Rays are skinflints today, did we?
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9:19 |
Urias article – Do you think we see him in the majors at any point in 2015? |
9:19 |
: I vote yes.
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9:19 |
Do I drop Steve Pearce for Pederson? No innings limit so I dont keep any hitters on the bench. |
9:19 |
: I wouldn’t, no.
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9:20 |
How many years will it take before the Phillies are watchable again? |
9:20 |
: At least three. Probably five. It’s going to be awhile. They freely admitted to having no plan for Maikel Franco, their top prospect who they called up today.
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9:20 |
What’s the World Series matchup you’d personally prefer to see? |
9:20 |
: Probably Oakland vs. the Dodgers.
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9:21 |
: But I like a lot of the teams in the running this year. I like the Nats, I like the Angels, I feel bad for Royals fans. Etc.
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9:21 |
Would you trade Adam Jones for someone like Buxton in a keep 20 (no salary). What about Jones for Buxton plus a pitcher like Jordan Zimmerman? |
9:22 |
: Definitely not Buxton straight up. I would only do the latter deal if I wasn’t planning on competing next year. Buxton isn’t going to help in 2015.
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9:22 |
Would you rather face M’s or Tigers in one game playoff |
9:22 |
: Tigers, easy. Have you seen their bullpen?
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9:23 |
: I mean, if I had any faith that Ausmus would do something creative like piggyback Scherzer and Porcello or something like that, maybe Seattle would be easier to face. But Ausmus is not going to do that.
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9:23 |
Which team is most ripe for a debilitating September swoon? |
9:23 |
: I think the Royals and Tigers are for sure.
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9:23 |
ROS pts league redraft: Soler, Arenado or Betts for utility spot? Thanks. |
9:24 |
: Probably stick with Arenado, since he’s more established. I don’t see Soler or Betts being that much better than him that it’s worth the uncertainty.
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9:24 |
Mookie 3 for 4 with a HR, Xander 3 for 3 with a hr and a double. A) Mookie is awesome b) is Xander about to bounce back in a big way? |
9:24 |
: I hope so, re: B. He had been having decent at-bats the past month or so, but things hadn’t been clicking. Hopefully they do now.
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9:24 |
About the Rays. Just put a stadium in Tampa ( not St. Pete ) and people will show up. That stadium is a real hike, especially since it is so ugly. Sadly, that team is being run as a dump and pump operation so a private equity team can profit off of it. |
9:25 |
: There isn’t going to be a stadium put in downtown Tampa anytime soon. Not happening at all.
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9:25 |
when phillies get betts this offseason, they will be watchable |
9:25 |
: You shut your mouth when you’re talking to me!
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9:25 |
Is Salazar worth a keeper spot in a 12 team keep 20? What about Colin McHugh? |
9:26 |
: What is the full roster size? I can’t see rostering either as a keeper in my 12-team, 25-man roster league, but in my 40-man roster league, sure.
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9:26 |
Are you surprised the White Sox didn’t call Rodon up? |
9:26 |
: No. There’s still time. Guys get called up throughout the first week or so until minor league seasons end.
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9:26 |
Traded Shields for Syndergaard and Pederson in a dynasty league where I’m way out of the money. How’d I do? |
9:27 |
: I think well. I’m not sold on Thor, but that is definitely good value.
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9:27 |
Would you drop Ryan Howard if you were the Phillies? |
9:27 |
: I don’t think you can go there yet. I think you have to suck it up, stay positive, and hire him as many coaches as you possibly can to extract whatever value out of him possible.
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9:27 |
Hey Paul! Was curious if you knew a way to link an excel sheet to live online stats (updating within 24 hrs, that is) |
9:28 |
: There is certainly a way, but I’m not familiar with HOW you actually go about doing so. Anyone?
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9:28 |
The Jays have Stroman, Norris, Sanchez and Hutchison, do they have the best young pitching staff in the AL? Maybe even the MLB? |
9:29 |
Second, let’s give Norris and Sanchez a few months to settle in before we go making bold proclamations like that. |
9:29 |
How will Anthony Rendon finish in the MVP voting? |
9:29 |
: Like, 12th?
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9:29 |
Who do you think makes up the Rockies 2015 starting rotation? |
9:30 |
: Look, I’m in a good mood. Let’s not go there. I don’t ask for much.
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9:30 |
Who’s the ugliest baseball player currently? THe most handsome? I’m watching Jeremy Hellickson pitch right now, and he’s a pretty ugly dude. not the ugliest obviously, but quite homely |
9:30 |
: Gotta still be Alexi Ogando, right?
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9:31 |
2nd place AL MVP. Will be VMart, should be Brantley. Am I wrong ? |
9:31 |
: You’re definitely wrong. Sorry.
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9:31 |
rbi or rbis? |
9:31 |
: RBI. You would never say runs batted ins. That just doesn’t even make sense.
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9:32 |
Not LBC |
9:32 |
YOU MONSTER |
9:32 |
: See, but Warren G said it that way, and he can’t be wrong.
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9:32 | : |
9:33 |
(those were jokes) |
9:33 |
: Oh, I know.
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9:33 |
Batman or Superman? |
9:33 |
: Batman. Though I did just tape Man of Steel the other night on my DVR. Thanks for the free HBO, Verizon!
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9:33 |
How does ZIPS keep dropping its projections for Mookie even as his average improves? |
9:34 |
: Because it’s working off of more than batting average when it builds out the projection?
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9:34 |
Remember when Torre played Victorino over Stanton in the World Baseball Classic |
9:34 |
: The times, they were quite good.
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9:34 |
: (And no, I don’t remember that.)
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9:35 |
DFA or DFA’d? “Mike Trout was DFA” doesnt sound right |
9:35 |
: See, but again, we’re talking lazy english. I have said DFA’d on Twitter, but I would never say that in an article. He was designated for assingment.
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9:35 |
: Assignment.
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9:35 |
Betts or Pearce? |
9:35 |
: For this year? Pearce.
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9:35 |
All-Star Superman (animated) is quite good. Add it to your queue if you haven’t seen it already. |
9:36 |
: Is it kid friendly? I did see that in the guide today/last night.
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9:36 |
#keepnotgraphs |
9:36 |
Giancarlo Stanton first to 100 RBIsss |
9:36 |
https://www.youtube.com/wat…
: It was Ramirezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz |
9:36 |
Rendon is the best player on the best team in the NL right now. Only a half game of WAR behind the NL leader. Everyone agrees the NL MVP field is wide open, but Rendon can’t even crack the top ten? Sorry, I’m a huge homer for him, he’s also the most beautiful man in MLB at the moment. |
9:37 |
: Look, I’m not disagreeing with you. But the fact is that the Nationals have a lot of popular players, and they are going to cut in on any traction he gets for MVP.
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9:38 |
$5 D’Arnaud or $13 Ramos for next year? |
9:38 |
: Roll the dice with d’Arnaud. Neither is a sure thing.
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9:38 |
![]() Can Alex Wood become an ace? |
9:38 |
And I think the biggest barrier to Wood’s stardom is health. He hasn’t given us much reason to worry beyond people saying he will get hurt, so, sure. |
9:39 |
Have you run out of questions yet? |
9:39 |
: No, I actually have a ton tonight! You guys rock!
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9:39 |
Re: All-Star Superman. It’s not violent or coarse, language-wise. So it’s kid-friendly in that regard. It’s one of the best Superman stories told in awhile. |
9:39 |
: Cool. Thanks!
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9:39 |
Does C.J. Cron see enough at-bats in September to potentially make a fantasy impact for those of us in desperate need of power? Does he become a full-time regular in 2015? |
9:39 |
: No, and ….. no, I don’t think so.
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9:39 |
How many starts left for Drew Smyly this season? Based on his stellar numbers since being traded to the Rays, any chance he could be a top-10 American League pitcher next season? |
9:40 |
: Top 10 is pushing it. Though I guess it depends on which teams Scherzer, Lester and Shields sign with.
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9:40 |
What do we think of Derek Holland these days? Worth a September flier? How bout 2015? |
9:40 |
: Definitely worth a flier, but no expectations for this year. Like him for next year as a sleeper. But he’s never going to be amazing.
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9:40 |
![]() If only he had a bat that big, hitting would be less problematic. |
9:41 |
: Who is that? Frenchy?
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9:41 |
Can you rank which Cubs top prospects you would rather have out of this group? Bryant, Baez, Soler, Russell, Schwarber (if he sticks at catcher) and Alcantara |
9:41 |
: Bryant, Russell, Soler/Baez, Alcantara, Schwarber.
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9:42 |
To the Sox fan: Shane Greene was this close to a heat stroke out there and the wind was blowing hard and out. |
9:42 |
: I’m supposed to care that Shane Greene was having a heat stroke? He took the mound, didn’t he? If you’re in the game, you’re in the game. If you’re not well enough to play, then ask out.
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9:42 |
Just learned that AJ Pollock’s first name is Allen. Who would have known? |
9:43 |
: Hopefully his mother…
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9:43 |
How hard is it to make up avg this late? 12tm roto dynasty standard 5×5. Would you give Darvish and Calhoun for Posey? In 3rd and 8pts back. Only have 4pts in avg at .2622. Guy that has 10pts in avg is at .2722 and a lot of teams scattered in between us. |
9:44 |
Darvish and Calhoun for Posey seems extreme, but if you can make up that many points I might pull the trigger. |
9:44 |
Tampa Bay is just an inventory franchise to MLB, right? Tampa built the stadium they were willing to build, when they were willing to build it, and when the lease is up there will be some shiny new economic center pining to pour public funds into a downtown stadium, no? Charlotte would be perfect for MLB baseball |
9:45 |
Except for the Charlotte part. Charlotte doesn’t support an NBA team, where is the argument for them supporting a baseball team? |
9:45 |
Re the excel sheet question: maybe try looking up a VB script that does that. I know excel works with VBasic but im not sure the specifics |
9:45 |
: Try that!
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9:45 |
Is the Cuban God of baseball (Puig) going to rejoin Abreu on baseball Olympus soon? Or should we be worried about this slump? |
9:46 |
: Don’t worry about the slump – Puig will be fine.
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9:46 |
re Charlotte, because baseball is better than basketball! |
9:46 |
: Sorry, that’s not a good enough answer. I don’t want any part of Charlotte if I’m MLB.
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9:46 |
Without looking, which 2 positions players, do you guess ZIPS projects to be worth more than 1 win ROS |
9:46 |
: Trout and Stanton?
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9:46 |
What do you think of Dickerson? Will he get legitimate playing time next year? What about Pederson? Too many OFs in LA still? |
9:47 |
: I guess that depends on who is running the Rockies next season. Walt Weiss seems to have clued in on the fact that Dickerson can rake, but he largely had no choice, with Cuddyer and CarGo injured. So I’m not convinced he’ll play him full-time next year. But hopefully he won’t be there next year.
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9:48 |
Do you think Montreal ever gets a team again? |
9:48 |
: I think it’s probably worth investigating, but I’d prefer to go the Santo Domingo route. Or Brooklyn.
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9:48 |
if you are the mets, do you try to trade murphy this offseason, assuming you have limited funds to shore up other positions. This is assuming you like what you see in dilson? |
9:49 |
: I guess it depends on what the return would be. I wouldn’t be opposed to it necessarily, but in general the Mets need MORE good hitters.
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9:49 |
3 New York Teams? The Santo Domingo idea is actually pretty interesting. Mexico City? |
9:50 |
: I’m guessing the Mexican League and lack of MLB infrastructure in Mexico would make that an untenable idea. But sure.
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9:50 |
Who got the better end of the Latos for Alonso, Grandal deal? |
9:50 |
: Probably the Reds.
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9:51 |
Charlotte leads the International League in attendance this year (http://www.milb.com/milb/st…), there is no other Major League franchise nearby and the climate is perfect for baseball. The Carolinas support NFL football, NBA basketball and even NHL hockey. Charlotte’s GDP is growing as well as it attempts to become a bit of a tech center. Right now the “home market” teams for the area is either the Orioles or the Nationals, something insane. |
9:51 |
: Charlotte supports the NBA? You mean the same NBA team that left and only came back because Michael Jordan pulled out his wallet? That NBA team? Uh, OK.
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9:51 |
How about a team in Havana funded by a posting system style free agency system for Cuban players after their age 24 season? That would be fun. |
9:52 |
: That would be!
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9:52 |
The Rays can take over the Ralph (I guess have to just call it Ralph, because I wouldn’t say the Ralph Wilson Stadium) when the Bills leave us… |
9:52 |
: Hmmmmm….no. But you’re thinking, I like that.
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9:52 |
Look at this way. Charlotte will outdraw the Trop. |
9:52 |
: That’s not saying much. Probably a few minor league teams that outdraw the Trop.
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9:53 |
: Haha.
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9:53 |
What is the biggest city in USA (population) that does not have a MLB team? |
9:54 |
: Probably either Las Vegas or Austin, Tex. When I studied this in grad school back in 2005, those were the two largest cities without a big four sports franchise. But I wouldn’t put a Major League Baseball team in either of those cities.
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9:54 |
Very tired of people continuing to insist A’s troubles are due to Cespedes.. Gomes hits LHP better.. Injuries to Lowrie and Jaso far outweigh loss of Cespedes.. Right?? |
9:54 |
: They’re MORE of a factor. Obviously losing Cespedes hurts a little, but it’s not the sole or dominant reason.
|
9:54 |
San Antonio acc. to Wikipedia. |
9:54 |
: Also a bad choice for a team.
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9:55 |
It’s not just about outdrawing a venue, it’s about regions of the country that have no real reason to follow baseball with no home team within hours. And in a part of the country that supports pro sports franchises and a healthy interest in collegiate sports. A team in Brooklyn wouldn’t do much to solve that. |
9:55 |
: Yeah, you’re right. The Brooklyn Nets haven’t been selling out every single game since they moved there. My bad.
|
9:55 |
: Let’s move on.
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9:55 |
Vegas, Living there, it wouldnt support a team. To much transient population (tourists), to many other diversions (shows, gambling, etc), to many ways for a player to get into trouble (again, gambling, ‘entertainment’), I wouldnt put a team there. Not a chance. |
9:56 |
: Correct. More specifically, half the city is always working because the casinos don’t close.
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9:56 |
get to keep 1 per year; loss of draft for round; King Felix (3rd), Stanton (4th) or sleeper Cueto (15th) |
9:56 |
: Stanton.
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9:57 |
: Don’t get cute. Stanton plus your first three picks in the bank is a dream scenario.
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9:57 |
I hear poppin’ a Molly is now referred to as Welkin |
9:57 |
: I hope not – poppin’ a Molly is a way better phrase, and Wes Welker isn’t good enough to deserve a catch phrase, even a derisive one.
|
9:57 |
Re Shane Greene. I was just explaining why the Sox looked great tonight. I have no opinion on why he stayed in, but he was in bad shape. All shiny and spent. |
9:58 |
: It’s hot out tonight. Most guys would have looked like that. Sorry, no sale.
|
9:58 |
Trout/McCutchen |
9:58 |
: Damn. So close, yet so far.
|
9:58 |
What are your thoughts on Charlie Sheen’s whale boat getting seized by the Danish Navy over the weekend? |
9:58 |
: If this forces him to lose custody of his kids, then great. If not, then whatever.
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9:59 |
IRL question-don’t you think Marlins’ willingness to trade Marisnik shows they at least believe internally they don’t need to trade Stanton soon? (and might even be able to re-sign him?) |
9:59 |
: I saw it the other way – it was more a statement of faith in Yelich and Ozuna.
|
10:00 |
any real sleeper guys you like called up in the last few days in a deep NL only league where almost everyone is already owned (all the top prospects). So guys like spanenburger and gary brown and that tier of player |
10:00 |
I think, in general, you want to look at who is going to play. I couldn’t recommend a guy like Gary Brown because I doubt he’s going to get a lot of run. Well, maybe he will if Morse is really hurt. But you know what I mean. |
10:01 |
Thanks a lot for handling this chat all by yourself. Must be hellish with the deluge of questions! Really appreciate that you took mine 🙂 |
10:01 |
: Nah, these chats are always fun.
|
10:01 |
Did you see the Starlin Castro injury? Cleat got stuck while sliding into home and he sprained his ankle. How does that affect his 2015 fantasy value? Obviously it depends on the severity of sprain i guess. |
10:02 |
: Yeah, not willing to speculate on 2015. I would guess not at all, for now.
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10:02 |
Who is the most surprising bust you have ever seen> |
10:02 |
: That’s a great question.
|
10:02 |
: Andy Marte? Delmon Young?
|
10:03 |
: Definitely a hitter that was ranked high as a prospect.
|
10:03 |
Total Recall. |
10:03 |
: No way, I love that movie. Well, the first one, anyway. I didn’t see the second.
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10:03 |
I wish on boradcasts they could mute the one screaming idiot who is seemingly yelling the whole game and is right beside the mic? |
10:03 |
: Yes, well, then you’d just have to listen to the announcers more, high-o!
|
10:03 |
What prospect do you think is the most overrated? Most underrated? |
10:04 |
: Archie Bradley seems pretty overrated. In some ways, the organization is just as important as the prospect.
|
10:04 |
Should baseball do something like Hark Knocks for the fans? |
10:05 |
: Oh god no, you wouldn’t like that product. It’d either be super boring or super disturbing. Athletes aren’t the kind of people that should have microphones on them 24/7. The level we’re at now is probably too much.
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10:05 |
: Alright guys, I think that is going to do it for me tonight. Thanks, as always, for hanging out. Same time next week? Cool. Cool cool cool.
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Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Awww missed it. Pederson and Ken Giles for Addison Russel who wins?