FanGraphs Astros/Phillies World Series Game 3 Chat

8:02	Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to a Game 3 chat that was supposed to be a Game 4 chat

8:02	Davy Andrews: RTJ said it best:

8:02	RTJ: Baseball!!

8:03	Ben Clemens: We’re having some technical difficulties on the site, but bear with us for a minute please

8:05	Davy Andrews: Important question as people start to log on to the chat: What did you and/or your loved ones dress as for Halloween?

8:06	David Appelman: It’s fixed. 🙂

8:06	Davy Andrews: Thanks, David!

8:06	Ben Clemens: No more technical difficulties, hooray

8:07	Ben Clemens: I dressed as Ted Lasso, which has the dual benefits of being a good costume and being easy to do

8:07	Ben Clemens: Castellanos defense, just like we always expect

8:07	Davy Andrews: We call that the sweet spot.

8:08	Davy Andrews: I watched at all his best defensive plays the other day, and almost all of involve that same little half slide on the glove side.

8:08	Kwah: Fangraphs was briefly broken so that Nick Castellanos could briefly be a Golden Gloved god. Universal balance.

8:08	Ben Clemens: Castellanos is the kind of guy who even makes the easy plays look hard. He’s excellent at sliding to make up for his range

8:09	Andrew: Altuve and Pena both swinging first pitch Game 2 and Game 3 – I wonder if there’s some strategic thought behind that

8:10	Ben Clemens: Maybe, but I’m skeptical. They both love swinging, and got sinkers first pitch

8:11	Mike M: Not out of the ordinary for Altuve to swing at the first pitch but if you’re Peña in that situation you gotta try to stretch that AB to up Ranger’s pitch count

8:11	Ben Clemens: I’m never quite sure what to think of this line of thought

8:12	Ben Clemens: I think I mostly agree

8:12	Ben Clemens: But I also don’t want Pena taking a sinker in the strike zone

8:13	Ben Clemens: Running up the pitch count will take care of itself if you’re doing the right thing about hunting pitches to hit

8:13	bosoxforlife: Why bother to up Suarez’s pitch count? The number of pitches he throws will not be a factor in the number of innings he pitches.

8:14	Ben Clemens: There’s that, too. Rested bullpens, and the Phillies don’t love letting Suarez go super deep in the game

8:14	Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s obvious either way, but it’s not clearly wrong for sure

8:14	Ben Clemens: Schwarber is definitely the biggest strike zone complainer in this series, but i think the umpiring has been really good

8:15	Not So Fat Mike: Pick a NOFX song to represent each member of the Phillies outfield.

8:15	Davy Andrews: This is what happens when you invite friends to the chat. Schwarber: I’m Telling Tim. Marsh: Bob. Castellanos: Punk Guy.

8:15	Andrew: No strike zone box at all tonight?

8:15	Ben Clemens: I bet it’ll come back. They’ve had intermittent technical difficulties with it this postseason

8:15	Carson: Any chance he stays for a second time through if he’s cruising?

8:16	Kwah: If I were a hitter in the World Series, I would simply foul off 130 consecutive pitches in the game’s opening plate appearance. Obvious advantage teams are ignoring.

8:17	Ben Clemens: I assume so, but maybe not a third. What do you think, Davy?

8:18	Davy Andrews: I’m with you. I think they’d love to have length, but he’s going to have to look good to stay in there.

8:17	Andrew: Also, iirc, pitchers tend to groove fastballs first pitch of the game at some way above average rate?

8:17	Ben Clemens: They throw far more fastballs than normal, although they don’t groove them at a crazy rate or anything, and the one Altuve swung at was out of the zone, for example.

8:18	Joe: If everyone in this game were suddenly a free agent who would get the most money?

8:18	Ben Clemens: Yordan

8:19	Ben Clemens: There are arguments to be made for some of the pitchers, I guess? But Yordan got more than any of them probably would even with a bunch of team control remaining

8:20	Davy Andrews: And he’s just 25.

8:22	Kwah: In a true capitalistic meritocracy, the Perfect Game Umpire would of course earn the most robust money boost as a direct result of this series.

8:22	Ben Clemens: Couldn’t agree more. Pat Hoberg threw the first perfect umpire game ever

8:23	RTJ: credit where credit is due- smoltz called sitting on a breaking ball

8:23	Ben Clemens: If I were Lance McCullers, I would simply not hang a middle-middle curveball to an aggressive hitter

8:23	Ya Gotta Believe: wow

8:23	Davy Andrews: The sound that just left my mouth. My goodness he hit that ball.

8:23	Joe: Bomb dot com

8:23	Ben Clemens: That was a juicy pitch

8:23	Ben Clemens: and he did not miss

8:24	Sharps: They’re seeing something with McCullers, they’re all talking a lot to each other as they pass.

8:24	Davy Andrews: This is something I started noticing in games 1 and 2. They definitely share notes.

8:25	Andrew: Did they play Harper’s walkup music (good choice, btw) on the broadcast? Like, separate from just stadium audio?

8:25	Davy Andrews: It sounded that way, right? Extremely loud, and not much in the way of reverb.

8:25	Ben Clemens: That was a reallllly bad curveball btw. Seven inches less drop than McCullers’s seasonal average, and center cut

8:26	bosoxforlife: Few players, like none, have ever changed my opinion of them more than Harper. His passion and commitment to the Phillies is really something.

8:26	Davy Andrews: I’m curious what gave you a bad impression of him in the first place.

8:26	Sharps: Also, the NOFX song for Brandon Marsh is Always Hate Hippies

8:26	Davy Andrews: This is an excellent choice. I hereby rescind my decision.

8:26	Henry: just woke up my baby with the noises I made at Harper’s swing. a real no-doubter

8:27	Kwah: bHRyce HRarpeHR

8:27	DingalingLager: Bryce is the man

8:27	5 Run Homer: Bryce Harper has this incredible ability to hit homers when they would be the most narratively satisfying

8:27	Ben Clemens: It’s baseball plot armor, kinda

8:28	Davy Andrews: Bryce Ex Machina

8:28	Kwah: I am a Yankees fan and I remember the entire NYY roster being clowned by 2 dozen consecutive McCullers curves 5 years ago. I guess I’m a Bryce Harper fan now, by proxy, yay revenge… ish.

8:29	Davy Andrews: This is really interesting to me. I definitely hold grudges against the teams that knocked mine out, but I don’t know that I necessarily hold them against players who just happened to play really well.

8:29	Sharps: Ellsbury, Jason Bartlett, Pagan, Cain, Lindor, Maybin, Betts x2, Turner, Albies and…Schwarber. There’s a NotGraphs article to be written about the Taco Hero’s baserunning stats over the years.

8:30	Davy Andrews: I love this.

8:30	Ben Clemens: NotGraphs isn’t dead… it’s just napping

8:31	Ya Gotta Believe: realmutos framing right now is chefs kiss

8:31	Ben Clemens: He’s like if Martin Maldonado could hit

8:31	Davy Andrews: Are you trying to reverse-jinx him, Ben?

8:32	Andrew: That’s Silver Slugger Finalist Martin Maldonado

8:32	jae: and run

8:32	Wireless Joe Jackson: …and run.

8:32	Ben Clemens: Alec Bohm is kinda good at defense these days, I love it

8:33	Wireless Joe Jackson: Bohm smartly hangs onto that one.

8:33	Guest: Gurriel scoffs at Fangraphs handwringing about playoffs strikeout rates.

8:33	Ben Clemens: Yeah, he had no shot whatsoever at that one in my opinion

8:34	Ben Clemens: Haha no, he gets credit for being a low-strikeout hitter in my modeling of it

8:36	Ben Clemens: If they get behind to McCormick here, I’d consider walking him

8:36	Ben Clemens: Say, 2-0

8:36	Ben Clemens: This stadium, his opposite field approach, Suarez running his sinker armside?

8:36	Ben Clemens: Or you know, it could just be 1-1

8:37	Ben Clemens: There will be no umpire perfect game tonight

8:37	Davy Andrews: And there goes the perfect game.

8:37	Andrew: The umpire calling the inside strike 6 inches off the plate?

8:37	Ben Clemens: I think it was more like 4 inches but yeah

8:37	Ben Clemens: Not the best call of the playoffs, no doubt

8:37	Ben Clemens: There’ll be more misses like it

8:38	Mateo: Lindbergh just turned off the TV in protest

8:38	Ben Clemens: wowwwwwww

8:38	Davy Andrews: I don’t know what happened. As always I’m like 30 seconds behind everyone.

8:38	Davy Andrews: Oh. ok. Wow indeed.

8:38	Ben Clemens: Let’s just say Pat Hoberg isn’t back there

8:38	Kyle Kishimoto: hello! i seem to have joined at a rather eventful time!

8:38	Davy Andrews: Hi Kyle!

8:39	Finnegan’s Seam Shifted Wake: Does an umpire having a bigger zone favor command pitchers over stuff pitchers? Could see arguments either way

8:39	Larry: At least he’s consistent in calling that ball a strike

8:39	Ben Clemens: He really hasn’t been

8:39	Ben Clemens: It was that at-bat, and it wasn’t at all for either pitcher until then

8:39	Davy Andrews: My heart wants to say command pitchers. If the ump’s at all consistent, you sometimes just see them hit that spot off the plate all game long.

8:40	RTJ: the wife is watching her very first playoff baseball game because allegedly Taylor Swift is doing something during the game?

8:40	Ben Clemens: go on

8:40	Davy Andrews: I assume that was it.

8:41	Mateo: it is funny that this most eventful moment went literally without comment on the broadcast. Very extremely online baseball moment

8:41	Kyle Kishimoto: wow, that was a lser

8:41	Kyle Kishimoto: laser

8:41	Kyle Kishimoto: 17 degree launch angle bomb

8:41	Davy Andrews: The one that really gets me is when the batter squares to bunt and the broadcast never even mentions it.

8:41	Andrew: They’re not missing when McCullers hangs a curve tonight

8:41	Mike M: McCullers throwing bp out there

8:41	Clemlibby: Wowee Zow!

8:41	Ya Gotta Believe: that was a bohmb!

8:42	Kwah: Alec BoHRm

8:42	Mateo: Now I need to know what Harper really needed to tell Bohm(er).

8:42	Kyle Kishimoto: “he has to establish his fastball” said about a man who throws more breaking balls than anyone else in the league and once threw like 30 of them in a row

8:42	Ben Clemens: He said ‘after that trash curveball he threw me, I don’t know if he’ll throw any more’

8:43	Guest: hey who do we thank for the new app? it’s really great!

8:43	Ben Clemens: Sean Dolinar!

8:43	Ben Clemens: It is really exceptional

8:43	Wireless Joe Jackson: Are we still talking about establishing the fastball? That’s the same patter from 25 years ago. Nobody pitches that way any more, John.

8:44	Ben Clemens: One thing I love about John Smoltz is that he clearly comes into series cold

8:44	Ben Clemens: And just tries to learn the players as he goes

8:44	Ben Clemens: So he knows a TON about the Phillies now b/c he’s done three straight series and probably watches Braves games

8:45	Ben Clemens: but then he says things like ‘Lance McCullers really needs to establish his fastball’

8:45	Carson: So do we think he’s tipping?

8:45	Kyle Kishimoto: i wouldn’t jump to conclusions like that so quickly – he threw a curveball down the middle to harper and made one other mistake, that’s a sample of two pitches that got hammered by good hitters

8:45	Ben Clemens: If you have listened to all of his games, as I have, you’ll notice that as series go on he becomes on more of a first-name basis with each player

8:45	Ben Clemens: Makes sense, I’d probably do that too

8:46	Joe: Is there something to the idea that you can build a team to win in the playoffs but that may not be a great one in the regular season?

8:46	Ben Clemens: Dan Szymborski looked into it EXTENSIVELY

8:46	Kyle Kishimoto: Marsh!!

8:47	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-the-playoffs-are-still-a-crapshoot/

8:47	RTJ: that article was great!

8:47	Mike M: Brandon Marsh going deep now? Get someone up in the pen

8:48	Kwah: BrandGone MaHRsh

8:48	Joe: Red October yessssss

8:48	Guest: Are the Astros going to be next 1990s Braves of 2000s Colts? Lots of great teams; only one ring to show for it?

8:48	Kyle Kishimoto: i think we’re at least half a decade too early in making conclusions like that

8:49	Sharps: First WS homerun by a guy who looks more like the bassist of a southern rock jam band than an MLB player?

8:49	RTJ: Who’s going to tell Marsh it’s November?

8:50	Ben Clemens: “Neither team has lost twice in a row, so something’s gotta give tonight”

8:50	Ben Clemens: That is not how that works….

8:51	Ya Gotta Believe: Smoltz: “Prediction: first team to win four games will win the series”

8:52	Dane Cook: There’s only one October!

8:52	Ben Clemens: That was perhaps the worst postseason slogan they’ve had

8:52	Ben Clemens: like…. there’s one every year

8:52	bosoxforlife: Tough man for McCullers to face right now.

8:53	Ben Clemens: everyone is tough for him right now

8:53	Ben Clemens: His command is really off, but even worse he’s hanging a lot of pitches

8:53	Ben Clemens: the Phillies are doing a good job of taking advantage

8:53	Kyle Kishimoto: he’s lucky schwarber didn’t hammer that 2-2 sweeper down the middle 500 feet

8:53	i read fangraphs: Hey, past performance of Octobers occurring are not indicative of future results

8:54	Ben Clemens: I think it’d be interesting to look at what percent of mistake pitches get hit for homers

8:54	Ben Clemens: dibs!

8:54	Ben Clemens: Can you guys imagine dropping a home run ball?

8:54	Ben Clemens: Heartbreaking

8:54	RTJ: someone definitely needs to buy that kid an ice cream

8:55	Davy Andrews: Damn it. I was thinking of looking at how many times pitchers miss theirs spots in one game.

8:55	Ben Clemens: You do that one and I’ll spend two days trying to define ‘mistake pitch’ and give up

8:55	Ben Clemens: What, so he can drop that too?

8:55	RTJ: maybe a butterfingers

8:56	Sharps: alright ben that one got me laughing.

8:56	bosoxforlife: It is really hard to tell what is a mistake. Some of these flamethrowers are happy to find the zone.

8:56	Ben Clemens: It’s reallllly hard. I’ve tried a few times before and given up every time. That was really more of a sarcastic dibs. But maybe I’ll get it right this time…

8:56	Kyle Kishimoto: that’s something i’d love to research but i can see why it’s so difficult

8:57	Ben Clemens: The ‘giving a pitcher a chance to work himself into trouble thing’ is an interesting theory by SMoltz

8:57	Phil: My friend once tried to catch a line drive homer at old Tiger Stadium (long before exit velo, but he said it was a rope). It hurt a lot and he dropped it, which was perhaps a predictable result.

8:57	i read fangraphs: People joke about having a normal guy run alongside Olympians for a sprint to provide context about how great those athletes are, but watching ordinary people attempt to catch HR balls really does get some of the same result

8:57	Joe: My friend broke his hand before game six of the 1997 alcs when manny Ramirez hit a rope in batting practice. He dropped the ball too.

8:57	Ben Clemens: In batting practice! Oh no

8:57	Ben Clemens: It’s especially interesting given that he spent the entire PHI/SD series talking about what a bad idea it was to take the first pitch

8:57	Jeremy: The kid was smiling, I think he’s fine. But someone should buy him an ice cream anyway.

8:57	Davy Andrews: Jeremy gets it.

8:58	Ben Clemens: Given how wide the zone has been tonight, you reallllly can’t take that one and act surprised

8:58	Ben Clemens: I don’t think Maldonado did himself any favors there either

8:58	Ben Clemens: ‘the room for error to get a strike called is very small’ uh, disagree

8:58	Davy Andrews: I do love it when the catcher turns around and says, “I want that one when I’m back here.”

8:58	Sharps: Looks like Suarez is only owning the inside against righties because he’s being gifted it.

8:58	Kyle Kishimoto: both strike 2 and 3 to maldy were in the zone

8:59	Ben Clemens: yeah. The zone has been wildly inconsistent all night. It’s sometimes very wide inside but definitely not always

8:59	Kyle Kishimoto: the 2 really bad calls to chas were the only calls inside out of the zone that have been given to ranger so far

8:59	Ben Clemens: THey might be the only two called strikes outside the zone period

8:59	Ben Clemens: I feel like it has also tightened down a bit at times

9:00	Ben Clemens: Umpiring is hard, zones are naturally inconsistent, etc.

9:00	Ben Clemens: If I wer Suarez, though, I’d be willing to try those gloveside sinkers a lot more given the way this game has been going

9:00	Jeremy: Suarez really is a good fielder, but I don’t think that comebacker really showed it.

9:01	Ben Clemens: Totally agree

9:00	Davy Andrews: Worth noting that the rectangle on the screen seems to be higher than Statcast’s zone. On baseball savant that second pitch to Pena was easily within the box.

9:01	Ben Clemens: I wonder if the intermittent disappearing is a sign that they’re having trouble with calibration

9:01	Ben Clemens: Suarez is really underrated. The only thing that he’s properly rated at might be defense

9:02	Kyle Kishimoto: gonna plug this about the box https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/70993/deep-but-playabl…

9:03	bosoxforlife: I agree that umpiring is hard so where do stand on ABS?

9:03	Ben Clemens: I really want them to use the challenge system. It keeps receiving in the game generally, preserves the whole 50/50 ball nature that I generally like, and is fun for fans in the way that tennis challenges are.

9:04	Davy Andrews: I have reluctantly come to the same place. I think I am more anti-robo ump than most people, but this seems like the way.

9:05	Kyle Kishimoto: i was reluctantly pro robo ump until i saw how well the challenge system was working and now i’m very pro challenge system, keeps the ridiculous calls right but still lets framing be a skill and i think that’s good

9:04	Phil: So here’s a theory I’m working on: a roboump would eventually benefit ultra-selective types and hurt guys like Altuve and Devers who are good at hitting out-of-zone pitches. Does this make sense, or is selectivity better regardless of the consistency of the ump?

9:04	Kyle Kishimoto: i believe under the current system there are more out of zone pitches called strikes than in zone pitches called balls, so i agree this would probaly help hitters who don’t chase but i’m not sure how big the magnitude of this would be

9:05	bosoxforlife: I have been quite interested in challenge system. It seems like a reasonable compromise even though I would prefer the full ABS.

9:05	Ben Clemens: Another benefit. Can you imagine the annoyed challenge signal Manny Machado will make?

9:06	Kyle Kishimoto: we could also clown on players who consistently challenge correct calls!

9:06	Davy Andrews: Excellent point.

9:05	Ben Clemens: He’s my favorite petulant but professional player

9:05	Ben Clemens: It’d be a perfect storm

9:06	Ben Clemens: There’s so much to like

9:06	i read fangraphs: Kinda funny that the Phillies benefit with the DH and the Astros (pressuming that Yordan would field most nights) would be relatively better off with fewer Mancini and Diaz PAs

9:06	Ben Clemens: Very good point

9:07	Davy Andrews: Both Mancini and Diaz are reallly struggling.

9:07	Ben Clemens: To be fair, the Phillies built their team with the knowledge of a universal DH, so it’s not some NL/AL thing so much, but it’s funny that the team with Yordan would prefer not to use a DH

9:07	Ben Clemens: Brb, gotta pick up my dog from daycare (they drop her off, they’re great!)

9:08	Phil: Bets on players with lowest successful challenge percentage (cause you know someone will track it)?

9:08	Kyle Kishimoto: there are far smaller scale microbets that people are going to be able to make and i really don’t like it

9:08	i read fangraphs: Steve Johnson @LegKickNationOG 2 Nov 2022

9:10	Davy Andrews: Do you like the spread of legalized sports gambling? Yes (6.2% \| 3 votes) No (77.0% \| 37 votes) I Don’t Care (16.6% \| 8 votes) Total Votes: 48

9:10	Davy Andrews: This is just me being curious. I personally hate it.

9:10	Jeremy: Do umps ever refuse to grant hitters late time out calls?

9:11	Davy Andrews: Yes, you definitely see it from time to time.

9:10	Kyle Kishimoto: my stance on this is similar to my stance on most vices – i don’t like it but i don’t think it should be illegal, but the way it’s advertised and marketed should be highly regulated

9:13	Davy Andrews: Right. I think people forget how recently things like lawyers, pharma weren’t allowed to advertise.

9:11	RTJ: I don’t care about legalized gambling, but ads for it should be illegal like cigarettes ads are

9:12	Stu: Why exactly is it important to retain the ‘art’ of pitch framing?

9:12	Kyle Kishimoto: 1. pitch framing is really cool to watch and study 2. without framing teams would just put gigantic people who can hit well behind the plate, it’s nice to have primarily defensive positions

9:13	Davy Andrews: Well-played baseball is more fun! Why make a cool skill extinct?

9:12	McCullers: Is he tipping pitches? Is that what the video demonstrates?

9:12	Kyle Kishimoto: yeah that guy thinks he’s tipping

9:12	kdl: I don’t care about the gambling either. I’m annoyed by how in my face it is, tho

9:12	Lzfreak: I’m the yes in that poll but it’s more that I like it being legal and less that I like it all over my TV

9:13	RTJ: catchers would still have to block and throw runners out?

9:13	Kyle Kishimoto: according to BP the difference between the best and worst blocker in the league is like 1 run, the difference between the best and worst framers is ~25 runs

9:13	Guest: Is there a way to get first-pitch splits on the Fangraphs leaderboards?

9:13	Ben Clemens: I don’t think so. I use Savant for ‘on a given count’ splits and FanGraphs for ‘after a given count’

9:13	Kyle Kishimoto: among the things we know how to measure well framing absolutely dwarfs all other skills in magnitude and importance

9:14	Ben Clemens: after a given count is more useful, imo, but I sometimes want to look at ‘on’ as well

9:14	Davy Andrews: Hi Ben!

9:14	RTJ: thanks Kyle, I didn’t know that

9:14	Ben Clemens: hello. We’re back!

9:14	Fangraph’s Lurker: I’m really hoping for more stolen bases

9:14	Kyle Kishimoto: i hope the bigger bases will increase attempts at least a little bit

9:14	Ben Clemens: Ruby is thirsty and excited to watch some baseball. Mostly thirsty

9:15	Davy Andrews: I’m going to ask this again because Ben was the only person who answered before: What did you/your loved ones dress as for Halloween?

9:16	RTJ: dog pics please

9:16	Ben Clemens: I’ll be honest; I have no idea how to put pictures into this

9:17	Kyle Kishimoto: putting pictures in chats is such a pain you have to upload them first, i had to do that with the patches o’hoolihan picture last time

9:16	Ben Clemens: You’ll have to settle for this

9:16	Ben Clemens: Ben Clemens @_Ben_Clemens “Is there something on my face?” 18 Oct 2022

9:16	kdl: Do you think every magazine post-prohibition was like ALL booze ads for a couple years?

9:16	Davy Andrews: Wow, Smoltz. That is not how atonement works.

9:16	Ben Clemens:

9:17	Ben Clemens: to both!

9:17	Phil: Two of my work colleagues were witches and were kind of annoyed with each other and it was pretty funny.

9:18	Davy Andrews: ANGELA: I just don’t understand why you’re trying to sabotage me. PAM: …I made brownies.

9:20	Clemlibby: Ruby – is that Buena Vista Park?

9:20	Ben Clemens: It sure is

9:20	Morlock Jimenez: Hoskins making plays! Move over Keith Hernandez.

9:20	Ben Clemens: You love to see it

9:21	Jeremy: Seems like the good framers use different technique than the good framers back when the skill was first identified? Seems like Realmuto and Maldonado both move their gloves back into the zpm

9:21	Kyle Kishimoto: yeah it’s been shown that a lot of the exaggerated glove movements can actually be more beneficial at getting calls

9:22	Davy Andrews: I was so surprised by that. I still find it jarring.

9:22	Ben Clemens: Did you guys know that unless the Astros can take away Philadelphia’s ability to win every game at home, the Phillies are favored in this series?

9:23	Guest: If you had to fill 4 hours of air time, you’d end up saying silly stuff too.

9:23	Ben Clemens: That’s very true

9:23	kdl: Ugh. Stats like “games won in the series” are ruining the game.

9:23	Ben Clemens: That’s why no one pays me millions of dollars to do it

9:25	Lzfreak: I wish I could opt out of political commercials

9:26	Ben Clemens: Hm didn’t mean to click on that one lol

9:26	Ben Clemens: But agree

9:27	Jeremy: Phils should roll.with Stott next year, or platoon him, or sign a big name free agent SS?

9:27	Kyle Kishimoto: obviously you try to upgrade – but it’s hard to platoon him since he doesn’t have a large platoon split (i don’t think the reverse splits he had this year are that big). if you strike out in trade/free agency i think he’s fine as a second-third division starter

9:27	Ben Clemens: I think I’d just run with him

9:28	Ben Clemens: He’s pretty good! How are you gonna find out what you have otherwise

9:28	Morlock Jimenez: Same here! I already voted, you’re wasting your cash!

9:28	Davy Andrews: I voted today! Early voting rules.

9:28	Mateo: I know it’s impossible to do a baseball broadcast without saying something silly, but I laughed when Smoltz referred to a stat tonight as “a numerical number.”

9:29	Morlock Jimenez: I love hearing the home crowd boo a time out ask.

9:29	Ben Clemens: It’s excellent

9:29	Ben Clemens: I like it more than booing pickoff throws

9:29	Jeremy: Phils keep Bohm as a starter? Or look to upgrade?

9:29	Ben Clemens: I don’t know if they SHOULD keep him. I probably would. But they 100% will

9:30	Davy Andrews: In case anyone didn’t read Esteban’s article about McCormick, it was quite good. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-chas-mccormick-loves-going-oppo-and-ne…

9:31	Ben Clemens: The whole idea of getting rid of solid cost controlled players just doesn’t seem to me like something many teams do

9:31	Jeremy: I’d roll.with Stott, see if he keeps improving. Not so sure I want to roll with Bohm.

9:31	Kyle Kishimoto: i haven’t looked too deeply into bohm this year but the pd regression is a bit concerning although his expected numbers were above league average

9:32	Davy Andrews: This morning I was FaceTiming with my niece and she had me look up the contract status of all her favorite Padres so she’d know who was leaving and who was staying.

9:32	Lzfreak: Is Maldonado the last batter for Suarez?

9:33	Davy Andrews: I’d be surprised if he sees Altuve with two on.

9:33	Jeremy: Pull Suarez if Altuve comes up?

9:33	Marsh’s Beard: Smoltz still doesn’t understand third time through the order penalty😂

9:33	Ben Clemens: I cannot get over Rob Mains’s article about how John Smoltz was actually terrible the third time through the order

9:34	Davy Andrews: I was telling someone about it the other day. They–and I cannot stress this enough–did not care.

9:35	Kyle Kishimoto: my favorite articles from baseball writers are the ones that absolutely dismantle elements of “traditional wisdom”, another favorite of mine besides this is russell carelton’s article about how the shift still works even in double play opportunities

9:35	Kyle Kishimoto: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74323/baseball-therapy…

9:33	Ben Clemens: It’s my favorite

9:33	Jeremy: Dammit, seeing eye grounder.

9:33	Kyle Kishimoto: great hitting from the silver slugger nominee!

9:34	Morlock Jimenez: Very Silver Sluggish!

9:34	Ben Clemens: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/78438/veteran-presence…

9:35	Bunk: Surprised Suarez is staying in

9:35	Jeremy: Suarez got Altuve; he’s done now right?

9:35	Ben Clemens: I would think so

9:36	BTTJ: Are there any studies out there on third time through the order based on how the starter has done the first two through?

9:36	Ben Clemens: There are. I can’t dig them up offhand but they found little effect. I think it was at BP and might be called ‘everything you want to know about the times through the order penalty’ or something?

9:36	Kyle Kishimoto: here https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/77501/baseball-therapy…

9:38	Kyle Kishimoto: it demonstrates that “[guy who usually doesn’t go deep into games] is cruising!” is a pretty terrible argument

9:37	Kyle Kishimoto: you know what i take back what i said about the shift article that might be my #1 favorite piece of baseball analytics writing

9:37	Marsh’s Beard: It’s in play! Phillies fans hold their collective breath…

9:38	bosoxforlife: Chances Suarez comes out for the 6th? I put the odds at 1%.

9:38	Kyle Kishimoto: he was hugging his buddies in the dugout, i’ll take the under on this

9:41	Kyle Kishimoto: marsh slugged .543 against offspeed pitches in the regular season, far better than fastballs or breakers

9:42	Finnegan’s Seam Shifted Wake: The new competitive advantage is always hugging your teammates so your opponent doesn’t know what pitcher to prepare for

9:43	Morlock Jimenez: I qas going to joke about no one seeing Marsh and Gritty in the same place, but there’s probably an Instagram account of just pics of those two together.

9:43	Jeremy: SCHWARBER!

9:44	RTJ: well that was far

9:44	Kyle Kishimoto: frantically refreshing baseball savant

9:44	Ben Clemens: Lance McCullers is really wearing this one

9:45	Davy Andrews: I’ve started viewing these games through the lens of: How will this affect the score Ben gives the manager?

9:44	Kyle Kishimoto: 113/27 holy moly

9:44	Marsh’s Beard: Schwarbomb!!!!!!!!!

9:44	Marsh’s Beard: Boom!!!!!

9:45	Ben Clemens: I’m getting closer to thinking he’s tipping pitches

9:45	Ben Clemens: b/c Schwarber just knew that was a changeup

9:45	Jack: ScHwRber

9:45	Davy Andrews: Kwah, he’s stealing your thing.

9:45	RTJ: do you let mccullers grind out the game and start working on game 4?

9:45	Kyle Kishimoto: each team has 9 relievers and they’re coming off 2 off days, they’re not gonna go to the high leverage guys but they’ll be beyond fine

9:46	Kwah: November 1st is Kyle SchwARBOR Day, the way he just connected with those trees.

9:46	Kyle Kishimoto: HRoskins

9:46

RTJ: LOL

9:47	Kwah: Jack is now my enemy. He is a lazy enemy. I am not intimidated.

9:47	Lzfreak: This is getting ridiculous

9:47	Joe: What the actual what

9:47	Clemlibby: They just can’t stop hitting homers!

9:47	Kwah: Have no idea how to incorporate the letters H and/or R into the name Rhys Hoskins as he smacks a home run.

9:48	Davy Andrews: RHRys HRoskins. You’re welcome.

9:48	RTJ: 100% has to be tipping right? The way he just smiled at the bench on the trot?

9:48	Ben Clemens: I feel pretty confident that he was giving something away

9:48	segiddins: 78 pitches feels really low for 7 runs in 4.1 innings

9:48	Kyle Kishimoto: no ones been left on base bc everyone has scored via the long ball lol, it was only 20 batters

9:48	Ben Clemens: Good work, advanced scouting

9:48	Larry: Somebody save this man

9:48	Morlock Jimenez: Dang!

9:48	Guest: Defense is dead. Long live homers

9:49	Guest: poetic justice for that Glasnow playoff game when he was tipping to the Astros a couple years ago

9:49	Ben Clemens: Haha yeah and the Phillies are doing the same smirky no-comment that the Astros did then

9:50	bosoxforlife: The odds on McCullers pitching again in the series are shorter than Suarez coming out for the 6th.

9:50	Ben Clemens: I was just wondering this very thing

9:50	Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t use him again

9:50	Bryn Maurer: Remember when Strasburg was tipping pitches in game 6 of the 2019 series, and an analyst with the Nats caught it in time for him to fix it?

9:50	Kyle Kishimoto: yeah that was awesome how he started shaking his glove on purpose to mess with the astros

9:50	Ben Clemens: Unless they can figure out what he was doing

9:51	Kyle Kishimoto: does dusty know his team is down by 7??

9:51	Ben Clemens: Poor Ryne Stanek. 1-something ERA this year, mop up duty

9:51	Lzfreak: Isn’t Stanek too good for this low leverage situation?

9:51	Ben Clemens: He is, but who else can they use?

9:51	Ben Clemens: Their whole bullpen is made of Staneks

9:51	Joe: Why the hell would they bring Stanek in?

9:51	Kyle Kishimoto: let urquidy or garcia just give you 11 outs?

9:51	Ben Clemens: Urquidy is the only other option yeah

9:51	Davy Andrews: They really did build the whole plane out of the black box.

9:52	Ben Clemens: I mean I think Garcia might just be better than Stanek

9:52	kdl: Do we miss instances of pitch tipping during the regular season, because there are so many games? Or is more effort put into figuring it out in the postseason? Or ___?

9:52	Ben Clemens: Yes to both I think

9:52	Phil: The real question is who hit McCullers with the champagne bottle. Will we ever know?

9:53	Davy Andrews: I wrote most of a very ridiculous article examining the suspects.

9:53	bosoxforlife: If Urquidy is the man to go the rest of the way to save the bullpen then why is he on the roster?

9:53

Kyle Kishimoto: i’ve always wanted to write a piece about like “why do these teams roster so many pitchers for a 7 game series with numerous off days”, but every time i’ve tried it’s just come off as too complainy or not long enough. i feel like there are so many ways teams could use their available roster spots for positional role players and they just don’t

9:54	CJ: Phily can possibly go for double this year (WS, SB)!

9:54	Ben Clemens: Wow, what about the Sixers?

9:54	Ben Clemens: (and maybe the Flyers, I don’t really follow hockey)

9:55	Marsh’s Beard: Not the flyers

9:55	Ben Clemens: Okay, not the Flyers

9:55	Matt: The Sixers are…well they can get the double

9:56	Ben Clemens: I mean, the Sixers aren’t favorites, but I trust the process

9:56	Jared: you mean the Phillies don’t need Nick Nelson annnd Kyle Gibson?

9:56	Ben Clemens: by which I mean Joel Embiid, not Hinkie

9:56	Larry: There is the Union

9:57	bosoxforlife: A third catcher releasing the backup for pinch -hitting has to better than a 5th starter. Christian Vasquez is actually a decent hitter.

9:58	Kyle Kishimoto: yeah exactly – or a terrance gore or a defensive sub or literally any othe type of player that would actually get used unlike the 3 relievers who haven’t appeared in any games so far

9:58	Jeremy: Bunt? I know you need baserunning and Bohm is playing deep and bad at fielding. But come on.

9:58	Ben Clemens: Pena shows bunt entirely too often. If I had infinite money I’d pay a stringer to document it for me

9:58	Ben Clemens: If I had infinite time I’d do it. I guess I’ll do neither sadly

9:59	Ben Clemens: Haha John Smoltz saying Bryson Stott is a gold glove shortstop, man…. I think he’s pretty decent out there

9:59	Ben Clemens: above average, for sure, to my eyes

10:00

Floyd: If your Houston do you go JV tomorrow – to leave open the possibility he goes again on short rest in G7 – or do you stick with Javier, Verlander, Framber and bullpen G7 with Garcia and Brown giving you bulk?

10:00

Ben Clemens: Great question

10:00

Ben Clemens:

Who should start tomorrow for Houston?

Verlander (19.7% | 14 votes)

Javier (80.2% | 57 votes)

Total Votes: 71