FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron on the 2016 Win Projections

by
January 12, 2016

Episode 623
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he considers, among other sundry topics, the first iteration of FanGraphs’ 2016 win projections and also what one might learn about Mike Trout‘s future by inspecting Ken Griffey Jr.’s past.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min play time.)

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

6 Comments
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TimothyS1
10 years ago

It’s sort of interesting that while the price for pitching has skyrocketed this offseason that the team that looks the best on paper has gone the exact opposite direction, in picking up Heyward and Zobrist and having stocked up on minor league offensive talent previously.

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raws
10 years ago
Reply to  TimothyS1

Cubs signed Lackey for $32/2 this year. Is that contract more of a bargain than the others?

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tps12
10 years ago

Hey you guys should get on Google: https://play.google.com/music/podcasts/publish

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Immanuel Kamment
10 years ago

Hi Carson. I think that you meant ‘codify’ not ‘reify’.

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Carson CistulliMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Immanuel Kamment

I beg to differ. I think I don’t know what I meant.

1
soaktherichMember since 2016
10 years ago

Dave, YES Ted Williams was at least as good as Trout AT THAT AGE. That’s why he was called The Kid. His first two years were not quite as good as Trout’s (again, same age) but his 3rd & 4th years were both 10.6 WAR years. At age 22 he slashed .406/.533/.735 with 147 BB and only 27 Ks. The next year he won the Triple Crown, which I know is a stupid stat to prisoners of WAR but he still did it at age 23 (and came in 2nd for the MVP to Joe Gordon of all people, so maybe those NY writers were early SABR types). To top those two historic seasons off, he spent the next three years (age 24-26) as a Navy pilot during WWII. When he came back at age 27, he had a 10.9 WAR season. In his 19-year playing career, Ted Williams had only one season with an OPS *under* 1.000 — in his age 40 season. He followed that with a 1.096 OPS at age 41. N.B. Trout’s next 1.000 OPS season will be his first. Different offensive era? Sure, but Teddy Ballgame had 7 seasons with an OPS+ of >200 (not counting his age 33 & 34 seasons which were both >200 but mostly missed while serving in Korea). Trout’s next 200 OPS+ season will also be his first.

YES, Mike Trout is off to one of the best starts to a career ever but not THE best. And we can only hope he keeps it up as long as Ted Williams did — and that he won’t lose five of his prime years to military service.

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