FanGraphs Chat – 11/20/13

Dave Cameron: I’m very excited to spend the next hour talking about David Murphy and Marlon Byrd. Early free agency is the best.

Dave Cameron: If you want to ask about players other than those two, you can do that as well.

Dave Cameron: I suppose.

Comment From JEB
That David Murphy signing is pretty good for Cleveland right? He’s a good off the bench player that will add depth to that lineup.

Dave Cameron: Pretty sure they’re not signing him to be a bench guy. Steamer projects him as a +2 WAR player, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be their regular right fielder against RHPs. He’s a perfectly suitable platoon OF, much like David DeJesus.

Comment From Danny
If Cano can’t get a big $/term deal, would it be in his best interest to take a 1 or 2 year deal for $25-$30M a year, and try again? Or just take as much money now as he can get?

Dave Cameron: He can get a big $/term deal, and he will.

Comment From JEB
Cleveland seems to be making some good decisions on signing fronts. Do you see them starting to make more playoff appearances soon, or was this past season a fluke?

Dave Cameron: They have a smart front office and they know what they’re doing. I’m not sure how they’ll replace Jimenez/Kazmir and they’re not going to get repeat seasons from Raburn/Gomes, but there’s pieces there to like.

Comment From Dan
Which SPs do you think the Angels will end up wooing to Anaheim? Any idea who they may be targeting via trade? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: My guess is they trade Kendrick for a starter. Detroit makes some sense, given their 2B need, and we know the Tigers are shopping Porcello.

Comment From Bret
Cardinals mystery press conference at 2:00PM! Want to take wild speculation on which superstar they’ve secretly acquired, free agent they’ve signed, or the always exciting contract extensions, retirements, or, the most exciting, extension of front office and/or coaching personnel!

Dave Cameron: You probably don’t call a press conference for an internal promotion/extension of front office guys. Maybe it’s Chris Carpenter’s official retirement?

Comment From Mhad
Any idea where Phil Hughes ends up? SF seems like a likely option, and would be a good fit for both sides.

Dave Cameron: Minnesota.

Comment From Shark Mapiro
Signing Murphy to platoon with Raburn seems to push Stubbs off the roster. Does he have enough value to bring back a cheap middle reliever or do the Indians end up non-tendering him?

Dave Cameron: I’d bet the Astros would happily take him.

Comment From Jacque
What do you expect out of E5 next year?

Dave Cameron: Dingers, walks, the usual.

Comment From Guest
Even though the Cubs want pitching in return does Shark for Weiters make sense for both teams? Unless the Cubs could throw someone else in to get Gausman as well

Dave Cameron: Doubt the Cubs want to trade for a Boras client asking for the moon this close to FA.

Comment From Jacque
What are your thoughts on the Pads Josh Johnson deal? Is there really that big of a concern that he doesn’t pitch much next year?

Dave Cameron: Love these kinds of deals. Probably ends up being one of the best moves of the winter.

Comment From Michael Scarn
Are the Red Sox better off letting everyone go and getting 4 first round picks, or are any of their FAs worth resigning?

Dave Cameron: They won’t get 4 picks, because they didn’t make the QO to Salty. I think they’re probably best served keeping Napoli (depending on price, of course) and letting Ellsbury/Drew walk. Ellsbury’s a good target for teams that need OF help, but that’s not the Red Sox.

Comment From Ousy
How does Oakland get better? Seems like they have few holes to fill, difficult to upgrade significantly.

Dave Cameron: They need better pitching. Their rotation isn’t very good.

Comment From $wi$h
How good is Kris Bryant?

Dave Cameron: I’m not a prospect expert, but it seems like the answer is very good.

Comment From JC
Does Jhonny Peralta get 3-4 years? more than 12mil/per?

Dave Cameron: I could see 3, probably not 4.

Comment From Kelly
Do the Jays give Melky a starting job?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Eddie
What’s a fair extension for Jeff Samardzija?

Dave Cameron: He’s got two years left before FA at arb prices, so assume a five year deal buys out three FA years. I’d say 5/60, something like that.

Comment From JC
Who is most likely to get traded out of Tex

Dave Cameron: Kinsler.

Comment From Thomas
Would there be any utility to a metric like FIP that ignores sequencing differences in run scoring but allows for BABIP differences as a sort of medium between FIP-WAR and RA9-WAR? It seems like sequencing is more random than BABIP.

Dave Cameron: Actually, I think it’s the other way around. I think ideally we’d have a metric that figured out what part of sequencing was the responsibility of the pitcher and give them credit/blame for that.

Comment From Erich
At what point does the Phillies brass decide to can Amaro, blow it all up and rebuild? How many seasons does it take for them to get back to relevance after this decision?

Dave Cameron: If the 2014 Phillies are terrible, I can’t see how he’d survive. If they’re decent or even good, he’s fine.

Comment From JEB
Could you see Cleveland trying to trade Asdrubal this offseason, or do you think he plays with them till FA?

Dave Cameron: They’re trying to win, so I think they’ll keep him.

Comment From Seymour
next FA to go off the board?

Dave Cameron: Feels like Arroyo could sign pretty soon, but that’s total speculation based on reading tea leaves.

Comment From Rick
Robbie Ross for Bourjos?

Dave Cameron: I have no idea why the Angels would do that.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Jim Bowden wants to see the Jays trade Brett Cecil, Ryan Goins, Matt Dean and Anthony Gose to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for second baseman Brandon Phillips and backup catcher Ryan Hanigan. Reds don’t take that right?

Dave Cameron: I think the Reds would. Jays wouldn’t do it. Phillips has minimal trade value.

Comment From Robocles
Do you think we’ll see more “if your arm should fall off” contract clauses like John Lackey’s and Josh Johnson’s?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think this is the kind of contract clause that makes sense for teams to ask for and isn’t offensive for injury prone pitchers to give, especially if they are getting higher guaranteed base salaries as a result.

Comment From Seymour
with seemingly no competition (Mets certainly don’t count), do you see Cano getting over 200M ? 8 yrs? this doesn’t seem like the freewheeling Yankees of past yrs

Dave Cameron: If this drags out and the price comes down far enough, a smart team like the Cubs will jump in and sign him. I don’t think he’s getting under $200M.

Comment From Guest
Robbie Alomar through Age 30: 3.8 WAR/600PA Cano: 3.8 WAR/600PA

Dave Cameron: Alomar’s early career collapse is an anomaly, not a trend.

Comment From Erich
Corey Hart gets X dollars over Y years from Z team. Solve for X, Y, and Z.

Dave Cameron: $6 million (plus incentives), 1 year, Tampa Bay.

Comment From Jay
There seems to be a glut of “proven” closers on the market and not many teams that really value that sort of thing aside from the Tigers. Colorado just went cheap with Latroy. Texas talking about in-house options. Is the world changing and Rodney and Wilson going to be expensive setup guys?

Dave Cameron: They’ll land closer jobs, but the market does seem to be shifting away from crazy contracts for ninth inning specialists.

Comment From Seymour
market seems to be settling after the crazy agent talk when things kicked off. anything surprise you yet?

Dave Cameron: About what I’d expect so far. Roughly $6M per win price based on first few FAs off the board.

Comment From Alex
Would the Giants have been a better Josh Johnson landing place? Or were they better off taking Hudson for significantly more?

Dave Cameron: I like both deals.

Comment From Jesse
I get the braves rotation is young, but teheran and minor can be aces and the rest are solid 2/3 guys. I dont get the huge concern for an ace

Dave Cameron: Teheran and Minor are only aces if you’re using a ridiculously broad definition of the term. They’re fine, good even, but they aren’t aces.

Comment From Jay
With Oscar knocking on the door but not really a true centerfielder, what should the Cards do? Burying him in AAA for another year seems kind of a waste. Shoving him in center seems like a big ask. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably start him in Triple-A, make him earn a job.

Comment From Andrew L.
Has anyone attempted to look at which type of pitchers maintain velocity, or is this a fool’s errand?

Dave Cameron: I think the answer is none.

Comment From tylersnotes
Given the shape of the current market, if every single free agent sp got Tim Hudson’s deal, would ANY of them have been an outright bad deal? If the answer is ‘yes,’ who and would you give that guy Josh Johnson’s deal?

Dave Cameron: No way I’m giving guys like Phil Hughes 2/23. Plenty of pitchers I wouldn’t want at that price.

Comment From semperty
Is Cleveland doing a similar thing that the A’s did – rather than having any great players, they’re just going to have 25 pretty good ones?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think this is a trend.

Comment From TG
Using Papelbon as a point of reference, Kimbrel could be projected to earn $30M over the next 3 seasons. Given the Braves’ financial constraints (relative lack of TV revenue)/payroll, do you agree with your colleague, Mr. ZiPS, that the Braves should look to trade him given the right return (whatever that may be)?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Jon
Josh Johnson is a 2+ WAR player in 2014. True or false?

Dave Cameron: I’ll go true.

Comment From JEB
So Murphy/Stubbs in right field then?

Dave Cameron: Or Murphy/Raburn.

Comment From Steven
If Mike Napoli’s leaves Boston, how likely is it that Mike Carp would be viewed as a reasonable replacement? Would he need to be platoon?

Dave Cameron: Doubt they’d give him a full time job. I could see Nava moving to 1B if they sign an OF.

Comment From semperty
When involving call-ups and send downs, does a team only use 1 option per season, or is it per move up/down?

Dave Cameron: 1 per season.

Comment From Shark Mapiro
What do you think are the % chances of these scenarios: Indians extend Masterson, Indians trade Masterson, Indians play out the year and give him a QO?

Dave Cameron: 20%, 10%, 70%.

Comment From Florko
Hey Dave, Where can I find data on BABIP for GB, FB, LD?

Dave Cameron: On the leaderboards.

Comment From Erich
I know a lot of things need to go right, but with bounceback seasons from Braun and Gallardo, plus some improvement from some of their younger back-of-rotation guys, is it in the realm of possibility for the Brewers to eke out more contending season out of their group? Or, am I just being a homer, and they should just go full-on Astros style rebuild?

Dave Cameron: They’re not very close to being good.

Comment From Guest
Now that Murphy has signed for 2/10, what do you envision Nate McLouth getting?

Dave Cameron: Something close to that.

Comment From Guest no.1
Would you bat Votto leadoff if you coached the Reds?

Dave Cameron: 2nd.

Comment From Robocles
Do you think the Yankees bounce back to become contenders next year, or is the age of their roster and the bad contracts on the books going to keep them from contention? If you’re Cashman, what are your goals?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re going to be fine next year.

Comment From Nick
Should DHs be getting a better positional adjustment in terms of WAR, since it was the fourth worst offensive position this year?

Dave Cameron: No. Positional adjustments aren’t based on offensive performance, nor should they be.

Comment From Stew
Hosmer or CDavis. Whom would you rather have?

Dave Cameron: Davis, easy.

Comment From Seymour
Cards supposedly to announce that they’re purchasing their AAA team, so I’ve heard.

Dave Cameron: That’s boring.

Comment From Gly
Who overpays for Salty?

Dave Cameron: White Sox need a catcher more than anyone else.

Comment From Jay
What should the O’s do with Jim Johnson? Between his price and the glut on the market, I’m not sure they could get much in return. Releasing him seems like a tough PR move.

Dave Cameron: I’m sure the Tigers would trade for him.

Comment From Josh
What do you believe the current undervalued asset on the free agent market is/will be this off-season?

Dave Cameron: Roberto Hernandez.

Comment From Shark Mapiro
If the Yankees aren’t bluffing and sign, say Omar Infante, what contract would you expect Cano to get?

Dave Cameron: He won’t go under $200M>

Comment From Guest
Baseball seems to be getting a huge infusion of TV money even though its audience demographics are trending negatively and it has more competition (from other sports, higher-quality TV programming, the Internet). Are regional sports networks making a bad bet?

Dave Cameron: Baseball offers, by far, the most live sporing events per year of any league. Live sporting events are mostly DVR-proof. Cable companies are betting on sports being the thing that keeps folks from cutting the cord.

Comment From Seymour
see any of the QO13 end up with hat in hand in Feb much like Lohse a yr ago or worse end up having to take a 1 yr deal and hit mrkt again next winter? Ubaldo? Cruz?

Dave Cameron: QO basically kills the idea of one year pillow contracts, because no one’s giving up a draft pick for a rent-a-player.

Comment From Evan
If the Jays did do decided to dangle Bautista as trade bait, how much could they get in return? Would a deal surrounding him and say Homer Bailey make any sense?

Dave Cameron: Gotta get a lot more than Bailey in return.

Comment From Guest
How much do you think the lower tier of damaged goods starters (like Marcum and Floyd) will get?

Dave Cameron: A few million guaranteed, lots of incentives.

Comment From Desdroia
Why wouldn’t the Marlins trade Stanton? If they keep him and he stays healthy, they’re basically the 2013 Marlins plus 3 wins, if they trade him for a boatload of prospects, 2-3 of whom are MLB ready (Bogaerts, JBJ, for example) they probably have a similar winning record as 2013 but all the sudden have a top 3 farm system, which should tighten their penny pinching trousers. The only way it’d make sense to keep him is if they were going to be buyers this offseason. Is the issue that he’s literally too valuable and a “fair” trade would be nearly impossible for the Marlins to actually receive?

Dave Cameron: They’re keeping him with the hope that they can keep him long term, not just for 2014.

Comment From Alex
What would a Scherzer extension look like? Greinke?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, something like that.

Comment From Nervous Ms Fans
Jokes aside, what does Kendrys Morales get?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess 3/36 from the Mariners.

Comment From PJ
You like the Rockies F.O. direction?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that they have a direction, do they?

Comment From gareth
Would a package of dorsyss paulino and drew stubbs be enough to land chase headley?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Prich
Ramirez and Paxton for Bourjos… who would/should say no?

Dave Cameron: Mariners.

Comment From gareth
You see a bounceback from murphy? He was awful last season.

Dave Cameron: That’s basically a requirement for a bounce back season.

Comment From Matt
For the Red Sox, Wouldn’t signing Napoli + decent catcher(say Salty) be about the same cost as signing McCann and a Cory Hart type?

Dave Cameron: No, Napoli+Salty would probably be more expensive, and could very well be worse. McCann is very good.

Comment From Prich
Who is the odd man out in the LA OF, and how much $$$ will the Dodgers have to eat?

Dave Cameron: Ethier, $40 million.

Comment From Jay-Paul
Are there any Jerry Jones like owners (i.e. heavily involved in decisions / GMs have little say) in the MLB?

Dave Cameron: Arte Moreno.

Comment From JEB
Atlanta fans seemed to freak out on twitter over Dan’s Kimbrel piece eh?

Dave Cameron: Atlanta fans freak out a lot.

Comment From Prich
If the Cubs sign Ellsbury OR Cano, and swing a trade for Price, can they be ’86-win’ contenders in ’14?

Dave Cameron: Could, maybe, but I doubt they go that route.

Comment From SteveV
Do young players with bad plate discipline like Atl C prospect Bethancourt ever turn it around to say league ave OBP?

Dave Cameron: Ever? Sure. But not often.

Comment From Gigi
Is he *worth* $200/mil. WAR doesn’t like him as much as Longo, Wright, etc. What am I missing? Positional scarcity?

Dave Cameron: Longo and Wright never got to free agency.

Dave Cameron: You can’t compare contracts signed while under team control to FA contracts without making significant adjustments.

Comment From Corinne
The Phillies having interest in Bourjos means: a) they intend to shop Revere, b) they think speed/defense first no power guys are the new market inefficiency, or c) they’ve lost all sense of reality

Dave Cameron: Peter Bourjos has a career ISO of .146. The perception of him as a hitter is almost entirely wrong.

Comment From Stuck in a Slump
Dave, I’m trying to figure out where David Murphy’s low BABIP came from last year, he struggled mightily against sliders for the first time and his ability to hit a fastball diminished greatly, but his contact rates seem to be about normal as does his hit profile with the exception of IFFB%.

Dave Cameron: Mark Simon tweeted out last night that he lost something like 18 or 19 hits on ground balls from the year before. Hits on GBs are almost entirely random.

Comment From Eric
When evaluating a player with a big platoon split (e.g. Choo), why does it matter? The splits are already included in his overall numbers.

Dave Cameron: Because those splits can be exploited in high leverage situations. If you have a guy like Choo, he’s almost never going to see an RHP in a late/close situation.

Comment From gareth
Would it be within the realm of possibility that bourn is traded by the indians? Youd still have Brantley, stubbs, swisher, raburn and Murphy while freeing up payroll to get a decent pitcher or two. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Doubt Bourn has a ton of trade value.

Comment From Chris
Do you have a opinion about the validity of Advanced metrics in other sports? Due to complex synergy’s and sample size issues, basketball/football seem shaky

Dave Cameron: The SportVU stuff in basketball seems amazing, I think.

Dave Cameron: Football, yeah, I don’t know how legit any of it is.

Comment From NWW
Looking at the #’s, Mike Carp’s splits don’t appear that bad. Why doesn’t a team give him a full time gig?

Dave Cameron: His numbers are heavily BABIP-driven. He’s a 110 wRC+ first baseman with no athleticism. It’s not a very good package.

Comment From Bob
Dave, you often talk about 2 ends on the spectrum of pitcher WAR: FIP-based WAR and RA9-based WAR. Why use RA9-based WAR as that bookend instead of something like WOBA-based WAR?

Dave Cameron: A wOBA-based WAR would be in between, in that would it penalize pitchers for hits on balls in play but ignore sequencing.

Comment From PJ
What 1 move would you make to make the Rockies more competitive next year in the NL West?

Dave Cameron: Blowing up Dodger Stadium.

Comment From Guy Incognito
As more and more teams adopt a smarter analytics based approach to roster construction and contracts are we going to see balance of power shift back to the teams with money to spend as all teams adopt smarter strategies? Essentially, once all teams catch up the analytics frontrunners, does money become the difference making factor again?

Dave Cameron: People have been saying this ever since Moneyball came out. Theoretically, yes, if everyone is analyzing the same way, then the advantage disappears, but we’re going on 15-20 years of this kind of analysis in front offices and the A’s and Rays are still winning.

Comment From Dan
Chances that LoMo is dealt this offseason? If higher than 5%, possible landing spots? BOS, perhaps?

Dave Cameron: LoMo isn’t very good. Some team that doesn’t realize that might take him.

Comment From Jaack
What is the most overdone story in baseball writing?

Dave Cameron: Best shape of his life.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Is the A’s approach really a trend or a way to compensate for not having star talent? Do you think teams are actually going to choose 25 average guys over having stars if given a choice?

Dave Cameron: The point isn’t to get 25 average guys. The point is to upgrade where its most effective and cheapest, and often, that’s by adding useful role players rather than by going stars and scrubs.

Comment From Billy
Do you think Juan Uribe could still be a “worse-than-league-average-but-not-awful” shortstop or better?

Dave Cameron: Seems like it, yeah.

Comment From dbet
Do you think the posturing between Cano and the Yankees could sour the relationship? If the Yankees end up signing, do you think that Cano will be “lazy”?

Dave Cameron: They did this with Jeter a few years back and it didn’t seem to hurt them.

Comment From Nick
with rumors of the tigers shopping fielder, any idea who could grab him and what the tigers would get for him

Dave Cameron: Tigers would get salary relief only, and they’d have to eat a lot of the remaining contract to move him. Most teams smart enough to know that contract is awful.

Comment From Gila Monster
Is MLBAM the greatest success store in baseball? MLB seemed to be way ahead of the game and is making a fool of the NFL and NBA struggling to catch up. MLB.TV seemed to cut the middle man instead of paying outrageous prices to buy cable packages.

Dave Cameron: It will be interesting to see if there comes a point when MLB starts just cutting cable companies out and selling baseball games directly to the fans through MLB.tv. It would require a huge investment in terms of building out advertisements, but it could very well prove more profitable long term.

Comment From Gigi
Which team’s fans freak out the most?

Dave Cameron: The Giants seem to have the largest contingent of unstable fans.

Comment From Joel
With Chris Young get a deal similar to David Murphy from someone? I was really hoping the Giants would sign Murphy & Young to platoon in LF, but alas.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think this is going to be the market price for solid OFs coming off meh years.

Comment From Alex
Who should be the starting SS and 3B for the Red Sox next year?

Dave Cameron: Middlebrooks and Bogaerts.

Comment From Brandon
Doesn’t the fact that Kimbrel pitches in high leverage situations (roughly 1.75) mean that his WAR should be roughly multiplied by that coefficient to determine his value, especially since the Braves don’t have any other high WAR guys in their bullpen to take advantage of the leverage coefficient.

Dave Cameron: Leverage is included in WAR.

Comment From Joel
Does the Tim Hudson signing meaning the Giants are likely out on Dan Haren?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably.

Comment From Ethan
Have you considered putting both Def and UZR on the default dashboard? I see the point of Def for comparing players, but it makes it look like players like Napoli are average defenders when he was the best defensive 1st baseman in the majors.

Dave Cameron: The best first baseman is still not a very good defender.

Comment From James
Maybe I hate commercials more than most, but I don’t see how live sports are DVR proof. I don’t watch any game until >30 minutes after it starts, and if I catch up to real time, I watch a DVRed Jeopardy or flip to a different game to build another commercial cushion. Am I an oddball?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s not the usual pattern for most people. Especially with Twitter, which heavily promotes watching games live if you want to participate in that conversation too.

Comment From Guest no.1
Is Rios’ deal now a bargain? as a FA in 2015, wont he get more than 10 mil/yr?

Dave Cameron: He’s not any better than David Murphy and he’s going to get more in one year than Murphy got for two. So no.

Comment From Meano Eno
Buster Olney suggested the Red Sox trade Lackey to the Angels for Kendrick and have him play first base. That’s silly right?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Prich
How much -or what %- of contracts does MLB generally allow teams to ‘eat’ in trades?

Dave Cameron: Can eat as much as you want.

Comment From Jtt
Scherzer and Prince for Kinsler is about the closest way I can see the tigers getting rid of prince. Does texas even consider?

Dave Cameron: No.

Dave Cameron: Prince’s contract is that bad.

Comment From Guest
Ervin Santana’s odds of getting the worst contract of the offseason?

Dave Cameron: It’s going to be up there.

Comment From gareth
What’s the deal with pablo sandoval? There seems to be a dearth of viable 3b options out there. Shouldn’t the hiants put the feelers out? He’s already expensive.

Dave Cameron: He’s good and they don’t have a replacement, so no.

Comment From Jay
I feel like players like Uribe and Peralta get bad reps as defensive players b/c they are pretty “thick” guys… would you agree their body plays into this weird misconception that they are poor defenders?

Dave Cameron: Yep. People think good defenders have to be skinny.

Comment From mattlock
What do you think about the Pirates going after Roberto Hernandez and Corey Hart? Seems like a cheap way to fill a couple of holes.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Hernandez to the Pirates seems like an obvious fit. Hart might need to go to an AL team.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Isn’t there an inconsistency regarding the A’s approach. When asked if you would rather have a 6 WAR player or two 3 WAR players the answer is almost universally the 6 WAR player. Wouldn’t teams rather have stars than spread the wealth? Seems like the A’s arn’t doing this intentionally but rather because they have no stars.

Dave Cameron: The 6 WAR player answer is wrong.

Comment From Gila Monster
The problem with moving to a MLB.tv exclusive system, would be the lack of channel surfers. How many times have you through the channels and used a sports game as “well there isn’t anything else on”?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine we aren’t that far away from a future where streaming content like MLB.tv/Netflix/etc… are integrated into the live TV guides.

Comment From Robocles
Re: 6 WAR player. It’s all about the money. If you have to pay 30 mil for the 6 WAR player when you can get 2 3 WAR players for 15 mil, the 6 WAR player is the wrong answer. If both options cost the same, the 6 WAR player is the right answer.

Dave Cameron: Except that doesn’t include the extra risk associated with tying up your +6 WAR in one player. People only focus on the value of the extra roster spot bug ignore the risk that comes with talent consolidation.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
“The 6 WAR player answer is wrong.” Care to elaborate? How is a 6 WAR plus whatever you can get at position two worse than two 3 WAR players?

Dave Cameron: There’s a whole thread on this at Tango’s blog right now. Basically, if you think that the second player is likely to produce more than 0 WAR, then you’re arguing that replacement level is wrong, and that there is some magic supply of +1 to +2 WAR players who can be had for nothing. I do not believe that is true.

Comment From Cranston
Jake Peavy for Peter Bourjos. Would that make sense for both teams? How much dough would the Sox have to chip in? Peavy making ~$14.5M.

Dave Cameron: Red Sox don’t really need a CF.

Comment From Billy
also wins get exponentially more expensive when attached to one player

Dave Cameron: They don’t, actually. Teams pay for wins on a linear scale.

Dave Cameron: Okay, lunch time. Thanks for hanging out everyone.