FanGraphs Chat – 11/27/13

Dave Cameron: Opening up the queue a little early today because I’m not sure how many people are actually going to be around for the chat, given holiday travel. We might not go the whole hour, depending on the number of questions, but you have a better chance of getting your question answered this week compared to most.

Comment From hazel
Who’s on your HOF ballot?

Dave Cameron: Too many to name. I’d probably have ~15 guys on there.

Comment From Mo Speights
Do you think the Rays would consider trading Price to another AL East Team?

Dave Cameron: Sure, if the deal were so lopsided that they were both helping themselves and harming their division rival. I’d say that’s unlikely though.

Comment From Noah
After signing a bargain in Chris Young, what do you think the Mets will do next in free agency? Continue signing low cost low risk players are try to make a big splash?

Dave Cameron: What’s the point of a “big splash”? Sign players who make your team better for prices that don’t stop you from making other upgrades. Value is value, and that’s what you’re after.

Comment From JFK
Are “situational” lefties that rare teams need to give them 3 year deals or teams just reluctant to use younger “kids”?

Dave Cameron: The Giants are certainly paying prices like its a severe inflationary period. I think they could have just kept Mijares and given him Lopez’s role and been fine.

Comment From AL
Do you think that STL will ultimately go with Wong at 2b to start the season? If you had to project his upcoming season would you say that .280/.320/.380 would be reasonable or low?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll probably bring in a 3B that will push Wong and Carpenter will bounce between the two spots. I could see Uribe landing in STL now.

Comment From Sam
Barring a poor spring, does James Paxton have a rotation spot to lose heading into the season?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, right now he’s penciled in.

Comment From Greg V.
I’m intrigued by Jose Mijares’ K/9 rate. The team I support is interested in handing out a three year deal for a reliever and I wonder if the smarter play is to buy lower on Mijares rather than throwing a larger deal at Benoit or Mujica.

Dave Cameron: Mijares is a lefty specialist only. Not in the same range as a reliever who can pitch full innings.

Comment From Lenard
Happy Thanksgiving Dave! Any thoughts on the whole “players with PED suspensions are getting paid too much” debate?

Dave Cameron: It’s silly.

Comment From JEB
Hypothetically. If you were a player and read Ziegler’s comments regarding Perlata’s deal, would it make you mad? Isn’t he supposed to “represent” players and not owners?

Dave Cameron: He’s allowed to have his own opinions.

Comment From SC
Hypothethical Question if you were a GM. Would you rather operate with a set yearly payroll ($100 M) or save money on bottom-curves of the win cycle to be used during periods of top curves? I’m a Twins fan sick of hearing about payroll complaining if you’re wondering my motivation for the question.

Dave Cameron: It’s definitely more efficient to have a moving payroll number, and go 50-50-200 than 100-100-100.

Comment From cal
yanks sticking with 189 after mccaann signing?

Dave Cameron: A-Rod suspension will get them under.

Comment From JEB
Your guess as the next FA off the market?

Dave Cameron: I could see Beltran signing with NYY soon.

Comment From Adam
The McCann contract…we can all stop worrying about finances because this is literally the perfect fit for this organization, yes?

Dave Cameron: Well, it’s a good contract anyways, so there’s no reason to worry about finances even if it wasn’t.

Comment From josh
Are Cards prohibitive favorites in the NL this year after the moves they have made?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what else Dodgers do. If they can turn one of their OFs into a quality infielder, they’re going to be tough.

Comment From JEB
How do you feel about public funding for sports arenas? Do you feel that fans/taxpayers get hosed in the end?

Dave Cameron: They’re a total ripoff.

Comment From Adam
Also, can you remind fans in general that they literally shouldn’t worry about contract fees/luxury taxes/any form of money lost by ownership investing in the team? Why does everyone suddenly care about their owners’ own finances as if it will hogtie them in any way?

Dave Cameron: I suggest you google the phrase “opportunity cost”. It has nothing to do with caring about the owners finances, it has everything to do with allocating the resources available in the best way possible. If you sign one free agent, you’re in essence trading another free agent who would have taken that same contract for the player you signed. Just look at is a trade and stop thinking that it has anything to do with ownership profits.

Comment From Brad
What’s the Mets best course of action at filling the hole at SS? Drew’s not signing there. Stopgap trade like Aviles or S. Rodriguez? Ask about C. Owings? Clint Barmes or Furcal in FA?

Dave Cameron: They should have gone after Dean Anna, who the Yankees just picked up from SD.

Comment From John Stamos
Is there any discussion of expanding the limit on the HOF ballot or dropping it altogether that you know of? Or is this a topic where conversations need to be started, and who decides this?

Dave Cameron: There was a thread on the BBWAA forum about it last year, but there didn’t seem to be much traction towards changing it. The BBWAA, not surprisingly, is not exactly a well oiled machine.

Comment From Dan
Prediction: Of the FAs that SEA signs this offseason, which will have the most impact in 2014? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Nelson Cruz. He will have a huge impact on the team’s failure and the firings of everyone involved in signing him to the most ridiculous contract of the winter.

Comment From Guest
How much do you think personal issues can affect a player’s performance? Such as a player going through a divorce, or a death in the family. You’ll hear about players leaving the team for a couple days, but surely it takes more than a couple days to get over some things.

Dave Cameron: Sure, I think that kind of stuff probably matters a decent amount.

Comment From Guest
How about a stat to measure clutch in WAR? Teams Wins above replacement = (teamWPA+) + (teamWPA-)*a

Dave Cameron: We already have a lot of ways to measure clutch performance. I’m not sure why we’d want to build it into WAR.

Comment From LarryA
Dave, we always talk about how the old guard HOF voter will eventually give way to the new class of voter, but will that happen in 5 years or 30? Do you know the average age of the voters?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess 10-15.

Comment From Jays fan
As a Jays fan am I wrong for not wanting to give up either Sanchez or Stroman for Jeff Samardzija?

Dave Cameron: No. Only two more years of team control.

Comment From Jays fan
What are your thoughts on the ‘Dickey Effect’? Seems Chris Carruthers is making a name for himself with that and TIPS.

Dave Cameron: It was a really interesting study, and I liked seeing that others found a similar thing with Wakefield back in his prime. It seems like this could be a real thing, which would be another point in favor of the value of knuckleballers.

Comment From sha199
Any cool holiday plans?

Dave Cameron: Thanksgiving at the in-laws. I’m excited…

Comment From Guest
If you’re Frank Wren trying to lock down some of the Braves’ young talent, in which order would you try to get deals done with the following:Pitchers – Teheran, Minor, Medlen; Position Players

Dave Cameron: Much more interested in long term deals for hitters than pitchers.

Comment From hickory nc
If waivers were available, what are the chances that Boston righthander Ryan Dempster would clear waivers with one year and $13.25 million left on his contract?

Dave Cameron: He’d clear easily.

Comment From SK
Happy Thanksgiving! Should the Blue Jays look to land a starter through free agency (Ubaldo, Kazmir or Nolasco perhaps) or trade away prospects for someone like Samardzija? Wouldn’t it be better in the short and long term to sign a free agent and not further deplete the farm?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I like a lot of the FA starters, so I’d probably go that route.

Comment From Kyle
How worried should teams be about Napoli given his increasing K rates and swinging strike rates, and his declining contact rates?

Dave Cameron: I’d be a little concerned about his long term outlook, but he should be fine for 2014.

Comment From BP
Is there any actual evidence that players perform better in walk years? And, if so, how much better?

Dave Cameron: Not much, if at all.

Comment From Jon
Thanks for the chat Dave, always great insight. The Red Sox look like they aren’t interested in paying Salty beyond 2 yrs – what’s plan B for them? Any good trade targets?

Dave Cameron: Ryan Hanigan.

Comment From economics neophyte
Will this year’s free agents get a disproportionate share of the new television revenues because the Collective Bargaining Agreement pretty much precludes players with less than six years of MLB service to tap into the new money?

Dave Cameron: It doesn’t, though; those players can negotiate contract extensions that buy out FA years. I think we’ve seen teams make more of those kinds of moves than really inflating FA salaries.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Any thoughts on why steroids are perceived so differently in baseball versus football? The fanbases certainly have significant overlap.

Dave Cameron: The writers.

Comment From Jon
How do you see WAR improving (ie increasing accuracy) over the next few years?

Dave Cameron: Improving the ratings for catcher defense, separating out credit for hits on balls in play between pitchers and fielders.

Comment From rusty
If you were building a bullpen from scratch, what kinds of principles would you use? All one-year deals? Mix of arm angles and handedness? Pitch types?

Dave Cameron: Diversity of weapons. I’d want a high K LHP, a high K RHP, a GB guy with moderate platoon splits, a rubber arm who can throw multiple innings, etc…

Comment From Kyle
Would it be crazy for a team to go into next year with Mike Carp as their starting 1B?

Dave Cameron: A team? No. The Red Sox? Yes.

Comment From Tom
Shark gets traded or extended? Whats your gut tell you?

Dave Cameron: Traded.

Comment From Ricky
Wanna say I’ve read the reason the average wRC+ isn’t 100 is because of pitchers coming to bat… Is this correct?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Pitcher hitting isn’t included in the baseline. If you click the NP tab on the leaderboards, so that you’re only looking at position players, the average is 100.

Comment From Shark Mapiro
Does Stubbs have enough value that the Indians can flip him for a reliever, or do they just have to nontender him (barring an out of nowhere Bourn trade)?

Dave Cameron: He has some value.

Comment From Guest
Any ideas on under the radar signing to improve the Cubs?

Dave Cameron: Roberto Hernandez.

Comment From SK
What component of a dinner Thanksgiving has the best WAR/$? Stuffing? Yum, stuffing…

Dave Cameron: Stuffing or sweet potato pie.

Comment From yakima
Why did the Mariners leave Brian Moran off the 40-man roster, exposing the lefthander to the Rule 5 draft?

Dave Cameron: He throws 85. Also, they’re not great at roster management.

Comment From Shaun
What’s your prediction for Cano, team and contract?

Dave Cameron: Yankees, 8/220.

Comment From Kyle
Would Choo be enough of an upgrade over Boston’s LF platoon to justify spending the money?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From L
What would you say is the upside to Rafael Furcal?

Dave Cameron: +2 WAR in 500 PA.

Comment From Andy
Do you think the Dodgers will wait until the end of spring training before they decide to trade either Kemp, Eithier or Crawford?

Dave Cameron: No, I think they’ll find a team to take Ethier off their hands in December.

Comment From Mark
Is there a real risk of a HoF-worthy player falling off the ballot entirely? Maybe one of the players in the 50-ish WAR level? Or is the threshold too low for that to happen?

Dave Cameron: Kevin Brown says hello.

Comment From TB
The rumored Fowler for middle relievers deal…it only makes sense if COL thinks somebody like Crow can start, right?

Dave Cameron: Doesn’t make sense for COL at all.

Comment From Brent
Don’t worry, us Canadians are still locked at work and forced to chat. What kind of wacky defensive alignments would be optimal that teams are currently too averse to using?

Dave Cameron: Five infielders behind a GB pitcher.

Comment From Jeremy
Bruce seems to be a lock for 30 HRs and a 250 average. Is there hope for a higher average, or is this what we will get?

Dave Cameron: K% is too high to be a high average guy.

Comment From Scooter.
Given Mijares Lopez’ role? LOL. He’s a gas can with nothing funky, deceptive or overly tough to offer lefty batters.

Dave Cameron: Feel free to go check his splits. He kills lefties.

Comment From Chris
What is your best estimate on a Nelson Cruz contract? And who signs him?

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll get 3/48 from the Mariners. They might prove me wrong and do something insane like 4/65 though.

Dave Cameron: To be clear, even 3/48 is insane. Nelson Cruz is a below average baseball player.

Comment From chawson
Will Joe Smith’s 3/$15.5 deal set the relief market? That seems super high for a 7th inning guy.

Dave Cameron: He’s a good reliever.

Comment From Sleepless in Seattle
Most likely landing spot for Ellsbury? Do you see the M’s still in the mix or do they have their sights set on a dumber pastures (i.e. Cruz)?

Dave Cameron: Doesn’t sound like anyone is after him that hard, at least not from the rumors, so I could see the Cubs jumping in eventually.

Comment From doug
how did jacque jones make the hof ballot but ken lofton didn’t? jacque jones never did $hit in the big leagues

Dave Cameron: Lofton was on ballot and fell off.

Comment From Dylan
Better 2014- Wacha or Miller?

Dave Cameron: Wacha.

Comment From chawson
Will the Fielder/Kinsler swap be the biggest trade of the offseason? If not, what then?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what the Rays get for David Price.

Comment From Kyle in Illinois
Will having an out-going president hurt the Mariners’ efforts to bring players in this offseason? Do players concern themselves with those kind of things?

Dave Cameron: Not at all.

Comment From chuckb
What can the Nats do this offseason to fix their offensive issues?

Dave Cameron: Be patient.

Comment From Tek
Do you foresee any trades that make too much sense not to happen this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Dan Uggla for Rickie Weeks with the Braves picking up the difference in salaries.

Comment From TB
Everybody likes to talk about how GMs and agents theoretically float rumors out there to see what the reaction is (e.g. “Cruz wants 4/75!”). Do we really think that whatever reaction comes from the unwashed masses has a legitimate effect on whatever happens next?

Dave Cameron: Nope. It’s not for us, it’s a method of communicating to the teams themselves.

Comment From Jake@baseballprof
What do you anticipate the Red Sox will do about their upcoming hole in center assuming ellsbury leaves? Do they really trust Bradley to take over full time?

Dave Cameron: Victorino can spell Bradley if he’s not ready for full time action.

Comment From chuckb
If the price of a win is around $6 mill or so now, how much above $6 M should teams who are in the critical spot on the win curve (85-90 wins) be willing to pay? Should they be willing to go to $8 M/ win? $7.5?

Dave Cameron: Depends on their revenue situation and payroll flexibility. Marginal value of that 90th win to a team like NYY is probably north of $10M.

Comment From Tek
Which player can cement his HOF case with a big yr this year?

Dave Cameron: Beltran.

Comment From Dylan
How big of a contract would Yadier Molina have gotten as a free agent this offseason? A good bit more than McCann right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, a lot more.

Comment From stonecutter7
Shouldn’t the 15% reduction in available WAR from raising the replacement baseline be factored into EVERYTHING else. For example, evaluating the kinsler/fielder trade would make both look like they declined more than really did last year.

Dave Cameron: No, it wouldn’t, because the change didn’t just affect 2013 numbers. We recalibrated the baseline for all years.

Comment From dan
Can Dean Anna play short ?

Dave Cameron: That’s what he played in Triple-A last year. Even if he’s not very good there, he might hit well enough to be a serviceable league minimum stopgap.

Comment From Todd
Who do you think gets into the HOF this year?

Dave Cameron: Maddux, Glavine, Morris.

Comment From chuckb
Thoughts on Allen Craig playing RF next season (other than, with Holliday in LF, Bourjos had better be healthy)?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see him as a full time OF, but Admas isn’t a full time 1B either, so they should be able to split time between those spots and keep everyone playing pretty regularly.

Comment From Wheres Jeff?
What have you done with Jeff Sullivan?

Dave Cameron: He’s hiking volcanoes in Central America. He’ll be back next week.

Comment From Sam
If you are Dombrowski, which pitcher do you trade? (or do you keep them all?)

Dave Cameron: I might trade Scherzer if I could land a big return for him.

Comment From TB
Regarding improving C defense measurements in WAR: What goes in there that’s not in there now? Framing? Will we ever get to the point of quantifying the elusive “calling a good game” or “handling a staff” or whatever? Should we even try?

Dave Cameron: Framing is probably the next thing to get added to catcher WAR, I’d imagine.

Comment From Ted
Would Ethier and 25M for Ackley and Furbush make sense for both LAD and Seattle?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t take Ethier for nothing if Dodgers were only paying $25M.

Comment From Ed
Are you excited about going to your in-laws, or “excited”?

Dave Cameron: Guess.

Comment From SK
Should the Rays look to swiftly extend Will Myers to a Longoria or Moore type deal?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine they’re trying.

Comment From Guest
Porcello for Dexter Fowler? Who says no?

Dave Cameron: TIgers.

Comment From Joe
Predict next big trade to go down.

Dave Cameron: David Price to the Pirates for some neat stuff.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
What do think of Deadspins little scheme

Dave Cameron: I don’t like supporting corruption in any form, really.

Dave Cameron: (Granted, one could argue that the HOF voting is already corrupt, but I don’t think you fix corruption with corruption.)

Comment From Mikey
Who is the best 3B in baseball now that Miggy will move back to 1B?

Dave Cameron: Evan Longoria.

Comment From Guest
If Garcia is healthy, Cardinals rotation of Wainwright, Miller, Wacha, Garcia, ???

Dave Cameron: Would imagine that Kelly has inside track on a starting job right now.

Comment From Seymour
seems like a bit of hypocrisy – M’s sign Cruz and it will be the worst signing of the winter; meanwhile the A’s seem to be flirting with Cruz and if that goes down it will be lauded as Beane creativity…

Dave Cameron: Trust me, I won’t be lauding anyone who signs Nelson Cruz.

Comment From 2ndHS
Why would the Brewers do Weeks for Uggla and cash? They can get out from Weeks’ contract after the 2014 season if they want to. Uggla is under contract for 2 more years.

Dave Cameron: That’s why I said Braves eat the difference in cost.

Comment From Ned Ryerson
Do your in laws not read your chats?

Dave Cameron: Definitely not.

Comment From Gila Monster
How can we make projection systems better? Reading your article of the cost of the win, I was shocked at some of them. Players with injuries are undervalued, players with real decline or improvement are ignored,while players coming off an flukey year are screwed too… For example, if Marlon Byrd generates less than 1 WAR over his contract, I would be shocked.

Dave Cameron: Perhaps its your perceptions that are off and not the projections?

Comment From victoria bc
Should buried Dodger outfielder/firstbaseman Scott Van Slyke be a trade target for the Seattle Mariners (who this week hired his father as a firstbase coach)?

Dave Cameron: Would not be surprised to see them pick him up.

Comment From Nick
What does Jeff like more: dingers! or volcanoes?

Dave Cameron: I think he likes volcanoes more than anything else.

Comment From Steeb
Guess for where Choo ends up, and at what price?

Dave Cameron: Detroit, 6/100.

Comment From chuckb
Is that true about Jeff hiking volcanoes in Central America or are you joking? If he’s really hiking volcanoes, that’s pretty cool. I’ll have to take back all the bad stuff I said about him.

Dave Cameron: He’s a volcano and hiking enthusiast. And you shouldn’t say any bad things about Jeff. He’s awesome.

Comment From Daniel
Do your family members try to “talk baseball” with you?

Dave Cameron: Nope. They’ll occasionally ask what’s going on, but they don’t actually care.

Comment From Guest
Love your annual USS Mariner plan for the Mariners. Think you can convince fangraphs writers to do that for every MLB team?

Dave Cameron: They’re a crazy amount of work. So no.

Comment From Ed
My mother-in-law is an incredible cook. I really am excited about going there for Thanksgiving.

Dave Cameron: Address?

Comment From Guest
If catcher WAR gets an adjustment for framing, does pitcher WAR get adjusted as well?

Dave Cameron: That’s one of the tricky parts of the question.

Comment From Homer
With the deadspin scheme, don’t you think if they just offer to buy any vote that will take it, and get more than say three, that it might change some minds about the process?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, but I’m not an ends-justify-the-means kind of guy.

Comment From Seymour
why the hating on Ethier? it’s kind of irrational. consistent 3 win player with a career (and steady) 360 obp. Solid RFer. He’d easy get 4/$50M as a FA.

Dave Cameron: Consistent +3 WAR player from 29-31 does not mean that he’ll be a consistent +3 WAR player from 32-35. And he’s got 4/72 left on his deal.

Comment From Doug
Not Lance Lynn in the Cardinals rotation?

Dave Cameron: Big platoon splits, so if they’re going to move someone back to bullpen, it could be him.

Comment From sam
who do you think is more likely to live up to their contract, ellsbury or choo

Dave Cameron: Ellsbury.

Comment From Shark Mapiro
If the Mariners sign Cruz and Morales to multi-year deals, would they be the worst combo of same year signings in history?

Dave Cameron: Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn weren’t so great either.

Comment From Nick
I honestly can’t believe the rumors around Cruz. I would give him 1/10 or maybe even 2/18. His upside seems like a +2 to 2.5 WAR player but I would probably take the under. The idea that he could get at least 3 years at $12M+ AAV is nutty.

Dave Cameron: It’s like we’re not supposed to notice that he’s got a .319 OBP over the last three years. Or that he’s headed for his age-33 season and has chronic health problems. He’s roughly as valuable as David DeJesus or David Murphy.

Comment From JFK
Will your dog be getting a turkey leg or ham hock?

Dave Cameron: We don’t generally give her cooked bones, since they can splinter and do some damage if swallowed. She’ll probably get some dry turkey though.

Comment From MJ
Ah, but does your wife read the chats?

Dave Cameron: I think she has occasionally. But she knows what I think of my mother in laws culinary skills.

Comment From chuckb
Is there a shortcut on the FG page to the free agent leaderboard? I thought I could click to it from the 2013 leaders but I don’t see it there.

Dave Cameron: There’s not a permanent link to it. Should come up in in google.

Comment From Rubby of the Rose
I have a friend moving from NYC to Durham. Any advice?

Dave Cameron: Get a good realtor. Parts of Durham are great, parts are… not so great.

Comment From Jamie
If you were the Yankees, would you sign Beltran for 3/36 or Choo for 6/96?

Dave Cameron: Beltran.

Comment From Jamie
If NYY sign Beltran, Cano, Tanaka & Kuroda, does that put them back into 95 win/playoff picture?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Gila Monster
Considering the entire Baseball Prospectus staff has been recruited by the Astros, I’m slightly surprised a fangraphs writer hasn’t been snatched up. Why is that? Is it because fangraph writers tend to have other decently paying jobs/commitments in sports media…etc

Dave Cameron: We don’t make as big a production out of it when teams hire one of our guys.

Dave Cameron: But there are former FG writers working in front offices too.

Comment From chuckb
Nelson Cruz has fewer WAR over the last 3 years than Kevin Youkilis, James Loney, or Clint Barmes.

Comment From Seymour
Ethier really not far from Choo as a player

Dave Cameron: That’s a knock against Choo, not a plus for Ethier.

Comment From Seymour
Heck ,you were a big advocate of Swisher’s a year ago, and Ethier is a very similar player so why the hating?

Dave Cameron: Swisher’s a switch-hitter without Ethier’s huge platoon split.

Comment From Homer
can we have an inlaw chat? specifically after my father in law asks my wife what she does all day as a stay at home mom of a new born and two year old.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think this chat would be good for our marriages, but it would be fun.

Comment From GSon
^ would guess your mother in law thinks the same way about your wardrobe choices and you do about her cooking…

Dave Cameron: She’s used to jeans and hoodies by now.

Comment From Right Field Rob
Is it fait compli that Rob Manfred will be the next commish?

Dave Cameron: Pretty much, yeah.

Dave Cameron: Okay, it’s already 1:00, so I’m going to go get some lunch and exercise the dog. Thanks for hanging out, and Happy Thanksgiving everyone.