FanGraphs Chat – 12/13/13

Dave Cameron: Its awards week, so we can talk about those if you’re interested in such things. Or we can talk trade rumors, or free agent pricing, or anything else that tickles your fancy and isn’t related to your fantasy team.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open.

Dave Cameron: Just a quick note before we start; today’s chat might be a little truncated, since I’m doing Clubhouse Confidential this afternoon.

Dave Cameron: And tomorrow, actually. Tune in for Blink Watch 2013.

Comment From Matt
What do you see Veras getting on the open market after DET penny-pinched and declined his $3m option? Sox need a right-handed reliable righty reliever.

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll get about $3-$4 million on a two year deal.

Comment From Jays fan
What could the Jays expect to get in addition to Brown in exchange for Bautista?

Dave Cameron: Worth noting that pretty much every credible reporter has said that the rumor is bunk, so it’s probably not happening. But it would seem like Toronto would have more use for Darin Ruf than Philadelphia does, for instance.

Comment From Pale Hose
In general, are teams too quick to start the rebuilding process? If so, do they overestimate the probability of success or underestimate how long it will take?

Dave Cameron: No, I don’t see teams rushing to rebuild until they are forced that direction. I do think, however, the notion of having to be as bad as possible to stockpile picks is outdated. Rebuilding should be about acquiring long term assets, not just stockpiling prospects.

Comment From Jays fan
Would someone actually trade for Arencibia? If so, what would it take to get him?

Dave Cameron: Someone could buy into the home run power. I’d imagine the Jays would probably not ask for a ton in return.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
So JJ Hardy for Shelby Miller is a rumor. And the Cards aren’t interested. Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

Dave Cameron: That would be awful for the Cardinals.

Comment From Stuart
Does Kemp to NYY make sense as a high risk/high reward type deal? Isn’t his value lower now with the health concerns?

Dave Cameron: Not only is it lower, it’s probably in the negative. I don’t think Kemp would get claimed on waivers at this point.

Comment From Stuart
Should the Bucs make a splash and go after Grandy for RF? He seems to fit their offensive profile, and at 4/60, they could probably afford him.

Dave Cameron: 4/60 for Granderson would be awful.

Comment From StarlinMiller
Cubs/Cards do the implausible and swap Castro for Miller. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Miller has far more value than Castro.

Comment From jon
Where do you think Kendrys Morales ends up?

Dave Cameron: Seattle, the only team in baseball that actually thinks he’s all that good.

Comment From Daniel
If the Cubs can get Bradley or Skaggs plus others, should they move Samardzja?

Dave Cameron: Yes, but that’s not happening.

Comment From Max
Porcello to the Cubs?

Dave Cameron: Seems like they’re kind of pitcher, but not sure they have what Detroit is looking for.

Comment From pogotheostrich
Byrd signing too much or just be happy the Phillies didn’t give him more?

Dave Cameron: It’s too much.

Comment From egl
who is your pick for the unluckiest franchise of the last decade ? Jeff went with Indians when I asked him yesterday.

Dave Cameron: This seems like the right answer. From the Sizemore injury to a host of flame-out prospects, they’ve probably gotten less from reasonable expectations than anyone else.

Comment From Steve
What would be the most you would give up for Hardy if you were the Cardinals. Do you think there is a good chance for a deal there?

Dave Cameron: I think the Cardinals can do better.

Comment From Three Fingers Stump
Who do you think will be the best free agent bargain this offseason?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-bargains-of-the-2014-free-agent-class/

Comment From Andrew
Really enjoyed the Bautista/Dom Brown column this morning. I think the reaction to this rumor and the Byrd move are in large part driven by a huge trust deficit RAJ has with the fan base. If he does a deal with Seattle, which fan base immediately hates it more?

Dave Cameron: I think the self-loathing meter would probably commit suicide.

Comment From jb61973
wHICH OF THE TRADEABLE TIGER PITCHERS BRINGS THE HIGHET RETURN?

Dave Cameron: Scherzer, easy.

Comment From Guest
What time does your CHC appearance air?

Dave Cameron: The show is on live at 3:30 eastern and then replays several times throughout the day.

Comment From Michael
It sounds like Seattle is focusing on OF’er not named Ellsbury. Are the Cardinals the next best fit if JE isn’t returning to Boston?

Dave Cameron: I doubt STL goes with a long term deal for an OF. If the Mariners don’t push hard for him, maybe the Tigers get involved, using Austin Jackson as bait to land a second baseman.

Comment From senorpogo
Are there sections of the new CBA that prohibit sign-and-trades for players receiving qualifying offers? I don’t see how one would make sense for all the parties involved, but can’t find anything in the new CBA that explicitly say they are not allowed. (Though I’m not very good at reading legalese).

Dave Cameron: It’s not explicitly stated in the CBA, but MLB has made it clear to teams that it’s not allowed.

Comment From Jacque
Saw rumors that the M’s were interested in both Beltran and Cruz. Do they hate defense now?

Dave Cameron: Now?

Comment From Gila Monster
Mariners interested in Matt Kemp…Thoughts? It could make sense for everyone.

Dave Cameron: I’d be interested in Matt Kemp if the cost of talent was nothing and the Dodgers were subsidizing part of his remaining contract. I’m very certain that’s not what would be discussed, though.

Comment From Bret
Is 2-years, $20M worthwhile for a team to give Ruiz? Apparently he wants a third year – is that crazy?

Dave Cameron: Ruiz projects as a +3 WAR catcher next year. It’s not crazy at all.

Comment From Mike
How many first place votes does Trout get Thursday? More or less than last year?

Dave Cameron: Doin’t remember how many he got last year. I’ll guess it’s something like 22 for Cabrera and 8 for Trout.

Comment From Tim
Does it make me a greedy jerk to want to see what Kevin Siegrist could do as a starter? I know the Cardinals don’t have room for that, but watching him throw from the left side is amazing.

Dave Cameron: Low arm slot, not good secondary stuff. Probably not a good candidate to start.

Comment From Matt
If MIL received a quality MLB starter and/or 1B/3B talent, think an AL team could get middle of the order production from A-Ram as a first baseman?

Dave Cameron: Not sure why anyone’s giving up that for Aramis Ramirez.

Comment From Tim
I clicked on the Hardy for Miller link, and expected to see a “the Orioles would have to kick in…” Can’t believe it was treated as a 1-for-1 type deal.

Dave Cameron: Many of the rumor speculation reporters are very good at collecting information and much less good at analyzing the value of assets, especially when the contracts come into play.

Comment From Johnny
Is Ervin Santana about to sign the 2nd worst deal for pitcher in the history of baseball?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think any team is going to be suckered into this $100+ million stupidity.

Comment From SW
Kemp for Seager or who would the Mariners deal for him?

Dave Cameron: Kyle Seager, right now, is a better player than Matt Kemp, without even considering the contracts.

Comment From pogotheostrich
I don’t think the Cardinals are eager to trade Miller. Could they get a SS like Aybar back in return for Lance Lynn?

Dave Cameron: I think this is the most likely outcome, yes.

Comment From Erich Kegel
Jean Segura for Shelby Miller. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: Brewers.

Comment From Eddie Oropesa
Assuming all money equal, would you rather have Marlon Byrd or Nelson Cruz the next three seasons?

Dave Cameron: Cruz.

Comment From Mike
Which former ace is the best value bet this offseason? Halladay, Haren, or Johnson?

Dave Cameron: Depends on health, which is almost unknowable from our perspective.

Comment From Alex
What can Porcello net in return, generally?

Dave Cameron: Probably a similar interesting-but-not-yet-established young player. While I don’t love the idea, there is some merit to an idea of swapping Dustin Ackley for Rick Porcello, in that it would be trading from depth to fill a need for both teams.

Comment From That guy in Detroit
What is Detroit looking for?

Dave Cameron: Second baseman, closer, outfielder.

Comment From PR
Do you think Salty would have accepted a QO?

Dave Cameron: No, but I think it wasn’t worth the risk for Boston.

Comment From Stuart
Kemp is one year removed from 147 OPS+ and two years removed from a 174 OPS+ with 39 dingers and 40 steals. He’d get claimed.

Dave Cameron: He’s been a replacement level player for his last 600 or so at-bats, and he’s due $130 million over six years. That’s basically Ellsbury money. Would you really give up talent to trade for Kemp instead of just signing Ellsbury?

Comment From semperty
Cubs seem like a rather reasonable answer. Prior and Wood both dying off? Would’ve contended for a long time with that duo.

Dave Cameron: Not a bad second choice.

Comment From Tim
How many qualifying-offer-rejecting FAs will end up back with their original teams? Have you heard of any good ways how to fix/alter the qualifying offer yet? Don’t much like seeing the Yankees and Red Sox stockpile draft picks.

Dave Cameron: Just get rid of free agent compensation completely.

Comment From Andrew Friedman
Who’s my winning lottery ticket at 1B this year?

Dave Cameron: Ike Davis.

Comment From Mike
What’s your article in THT Annual about?

Dave Cameron: The problem facing MLB teams due to their decision to not pay a living wage to their lower level front office members.

Comment From Guest
How much of the prospect flame out blame is on the Indians talent evaluation and development?

Dave Cameron: Impossible to know.

Comment From Billy
With Elsbury a free agent, we hear a lot about “Look out for speed guys in their thirties.” Do speed guys really age particularly worse? Anecdotally, it seems to me that they also preserve their value by staying defensively ok and often it’s more that their never-great hitting drops off so they can’t hit the ball hard enough to get on base, as opposed to losing the ability to beat out base hits. How wrong am I?

Dave Cameron: Speed guys actually age better than average, because they’re in better physical condition and are less prone to injuries as they get older.

Comment From Max Scherzers Blue Eye
Any chance Brad Miller gets moved to the Cards for one of their pitchers? I think it would be dumb for the M’s to deal him, but this is the M’s we’re talking about.

Dave Cameron: I think the Cardinals will aim for more of an established player.

Comment From Bud
If you were a GM with a need at 1B, how much would you pay for Napoli? Do you think he’ll be worth 13 / yr for 2 years? 3?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably try to get him for 3/33, and pass if it got higher than that.

Comment From semperty
Do you know if there’s a place to watch CHC if you’re at a college that doesn’t pick up MLB Network?

Dave Cameron: They put some of the video clips online after the show airs.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
We don’t get MLB Network in Canada and I blame you personally

Dave Cameron: As you should.

Comment From Ryan
Is there any chance that Jeremy Hellickson gets traded this year, or are teams not interested because of his struggles?

Dave Cameron: That would be selling low, something the Rays usually don’t do.

Comment From Guest
Kazmir is an interesting free agent. Where do you think he ends up?

Dave Cameron: Baltimore.

Comment From jb61973
Jeff yesterday said Fister, Smyly, Scherzer, then Porcello.

Dave Cameron: Well, they’re not trading Fister or Smyly, so I excluded them.

Comment From stonecutter7
Are there any restrictions to trading a player who accepts a qualifying offer?

Dave Cameron: Yes, you can’t do it.

Comment From Long Suffering
Loved your USSM article on the Mariners’ rumored pursuit of Nelson Cruz. In your opinion, what’s the short answer to what is wrong with them?

Dave Cameron: They lack talent.

Comment From Ricky
Austin Jackson for Ian kinsler?

Dave Cameron: Rangers would have to kick in a lot.

Comment From Guest
Why such little apparent interest in Navarro this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Free agency is like a week old.

Comment From senorpogo
COY and ROY are kind of silly awards, aren’t they?

Dave Cameron: Very.

Comment From Seymour
speaking of Hardy I think, if Drew can reasonably (according to some) seek 4/48M this year, does Hardy get 80M next yr? power-hitting GG SS will get paid, no?

Dave Cameron: Not ones with his injury history, no.

Comment From Guest
What do you expect from Anthony Rendon next year?

Dave Cameron: A good season. I like Rendon.

Comment From kevinthecomic
any chance the tigers could turn one of scherzer, porcello, sanchez or fister into an above-average 2b? Ian Desmond?

Dave Cameron: Desmond is one of the best shortstops in the game, so no, you’re not getting him. I could see Scherzer for Howie Kendrick and stuff.

Dave Cameron: Note: I wouldn’t trade Kendrick for Scherzer, but DiPoto might.

Comment From Josh
Wiser investment for Mets: Granderson 3/$48 or Choo 6/$100?

Dave Cameron: Option C.

Comment From Ryan
With all the t.v. revenue is it possible Trout gets $400 million as a free agent?

Dave Cameron: Unlikely, but if he keeps this up and gets to free agency at 26, he’ll get $300+M easy.

Comment From Robocles
Just how much is 200 innings of league average starting pitching worth these days?

Dave Cameron: Probably about $10-$12 million per year on a 2-3 year deal.

Comment From Drew
Two Trade Ideas: Venable and Gregerson for Castellanos; Erlin and Sampson for Bourgos. Fair, or is one side overpaying?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to guess you’re a Padres fan?

Comment From Guest
Knowing that there’s nothing we can do about the Twins’ desire to sign low-K/low-BB starting pitchers with very little upside, what sort of contractual terms would make the Twins-Arroyo deal acceptable? (If any)

Dave Cameron: 1/10.

Comment From Greg
If the Mariner’s do indeed go for Jhonny Peralta, where would they play him? LF? What are the cons for signing him?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d imagine they’d look at him as an outfielder. The cons are that he’s never really played the outfield.

Comment From Seymour
considering what some SPs are suggesting they are worth, the Mets should see what a very cheap Dillon Gee could return… thoughts?

Dave Cameron: These free agent pricetags are just agent leaks intended to try and create a market where none exists.

Comment From Justin
Sounds like you are very bearish on Kemp ever being a star-level player again.

Dave Cameron: It’s certainly possible, for 6/130, you’re betting on it being the most likely outcome. No thanks.

Comment From Guest
What is a fair return from the Cardinals for Aybar and Bourjos?

Dave Cameron: Miller and Jay, maybe?

Comment From Gila Monster
If you were the Red Sox, what do you do about the SS/3rd situation? try Bogaerts and Middlebrooks? Give Drew too much money? Explore a trade for Headley?

Dave Cameron: I’d go with Bogaerts at short and then use Middlebrooks and a decent veteran like Eric Chavez at third.

Comment From semperty
Is Ackely’s career at 2B over?

Dave Cameron: No, he’s actually a pretty good defender there. The Mariners only shifted him to the OF because they wanted to get Nick Franklin playing time, and Franklin can’t play anywhere else.

Comment From JC
Could StL get Andrus for package centered around Miller and lesser prospects if they took on the full contract?

Dave Cameron: That’s an overpay. If you’re taking on full contract, don’t have to give up Miller.

Comment From Joel
Do you have an example of a team that doesn’t really put much stock in advanced stats? Or is everyone on board now?

Dave Cameron: The Phillies say hello.

Comment From Dan
Why didn’t the Tigers offer Infante a QO? Seems like it would’ve been an absolute no-brainer.

Dave Cameron: They have too many other expensive players already under contract.

Comment From SW
The upside of Kemp is higher than Ellsbury correct?

Dave Cameron: Theoretical upside? Maybe, but practically, I doubt it. Ellsbury’s something like a +4 to +5 WAR player. Do we really think Kemp is going to get back to +7 WAR levels as he gets older and deals with physical declien?

Comment From Andrew
Were you being serious about Kemp going unclaimed on waivers or exaggerating? I agree he’s essentially worth nothing in a trade, but given how little talent is available in free agency, have to think a team would be willing to take that chance. (Alex Rios was claimed!)

Dave Cameron: Joe Mauer wasn’t claimed.

Dave Cameron: Difference between claiming 1/13 and 6/130.

Comment From Matt
Are Dan Uggla and BJ Upton both starting for Atlanta on Opening Day?

Dave Cameron: Uggla is in another city.

Comment From des moines
Matt Kemp represents a huge risk, but a risk a team such as Seattle might take. The Mariners can’t force Jacoby Ellsbury to Seattle, but the Dodgers apparently could force a trade to Seattle. What if the cost was Hector Noesi?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t take Kemp at 6/130 unless the Dodgers offset some of the cost.

Comment From Greg
If a player accepts a QO and has that 1 year contract, what happens the following free agent year? Is he in a similar position to have a QO offer again or does he become a free agent with no QO automatically?

Dave Cameron: You can be offered the QO as many times as a team wants.

Comment From chehalis
With all the new television revenues, shouldn’t we expect a significant increase in salaries for free agents? The deals for Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence and Marlon Byrd suggested that (and those deals might look reasonable come February).

Dave Cameron: Yes, salaries are going up. No, I don’t think those deals will look good by February .

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
For the same price, but considering the Drew has compensation attached, Peralta vs. Drew?

Dave Cameron: I’d prefer Peralta.

Comment From Robocles
Do you expect to see any crazy megatrades this offseason?

Dave Cameron: David Price is getting moved.

Comment From Frankie
What is the best contract in baseball right now.

Dave Cameron: Mike Trout, pre-arb.

Comment From Joe
Why are left handed starting pitchers able to stay in the league longer?

Dave Cameron: Because they can turn into left-handed relievers.

Comment From Jeff
Does Choo break $100 million?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Jake
Ike Davis for Rays? You think Joyce would be enough or do you think Friedman would get him for less?

Dave Cameron: I could see some kind of Joyce/Davis swap, maybe with secondary pieces.

Comment From stonecutter7
Why doesn’t an outside source come in and take advantage of the inefficient market for young guys by offering insurance/upfront money if they wait and test free agency. Seems like boras should have been doing this for years.

Dave Cameron: Because security isn’t just financial. Players like to know that they can put down roots.

Comment From jpg
How a bout the Mets? Two September collapses back-to-back. Bernie Madoff. Omar Minaya. Kazmir for the wrong Zambrano. Tony Bernazard taking off his shirt and challenging a AA player to a fight. The fiasco surrounding the medical staff. Matt Harvey going down. Our best moment the last 10 yrs is a 40 yr old knuckleballer winning a CY young during 75 win season…Self-loathing Mets fans for the win!

Dave Cameron: Compelling argument.

Comment From pogotheostrich
Bourjos value seems a lot higher than I have it. Isn’t they same guy who just had surgery on his wrist and could crack the Angel’s OF?

Dave Cameron: No, he’s the elite defensive center fielder who can also hit a little bit.

Comment From Max Scherzers Blue Eye
Any chance Khris Davis turns into a 3-4 WAR star? The power is legit and his minor league track record suggests he can take a walk. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Unlikely.

Comment From Billy
Conventional sabermetric wisdom says protection is a myth. A lot of smart people say it, but I find it hard to believe. Can you point me to a study about this that explains its methods so I can decide what to believe for myself?

Dave Cameron: Google for “protection theory”. Stuff will come up.

Comment From That guy in Detroit
Dave, did FG send anybody to Orlando for the GM Meetings? Is anybody going for the winter meetings?

Dave Cameron: The GM meetings aren’t really worth covering for us. We’ll have four people in Orlando for the winter meetings though.

Comment From Boston Phan?
When you say rebuilding should be about acquiring long-term assets, what are other useful long-term assets besides prospects? Edwin Jackson for four years, for example?

Dave Cameron: Players who will still be valuable assets at their expected cost in 2-3 years. Underpriced free agents, arbitration eligible guys, interesting minor league free agents.

Comment From Hank G.
Can Prince Fielder be above average again? Best case scenario, does he make the HOF?

Dave Cameron: Yes, no.

Dave Cameron: Okay, have a Cy Young thing to write before I go tape CHC. Thanks for hanging out this week, everyone.