FanGraphs Chat – 2/5/14

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open. Fire away.

Dave Cameron: Going to start a few minutes late today so I can finish this Freeman extension post.

Dave Cameron: Okay, Freeman post is up. Short version: it’s expensive, but Freeman is young enough that this is the rare eight year deal that probably won’t end with the player being an albatross.

Comment From Oren
What’s taking so long? (You know… with all the players not signing contracts and such)

Dave Cameron: Tanaka killed the pitching market for a month. It will get sorted out in the next week.

Comment From EC
Which Nats pitcher has the best chance for a Cy Young?

Dave Cameron: Strasburg.

Comment From Joe
Where and for what will Drew sign?

Dave Cameron: Boston, 2/20.

Comment From Brandon
What do you think of the league’s new metal detector mandate?

Dave Cameron: Seems like it’s worsening the fan experience for little or no security gain.

Comment From Mooser
Help me better understand why Zips and Steamer are so different on pitchers. Way off on A’s pitchers now also.

Dave Cameron: Different methodologies. If all projection systems were the same, what would be the point?

Comment From James
Shouldn’t the braves have given Heyward the Freeman money?

Dave Cameron: I don’t have a problem with making the guy with a history of injury problems prove he can stay healthy before he gets rich.

Comment From Matt S
Shi Davidi said recently that the QO is a ‘punishment for free agents.’ To me, the QO works well so long as players understand their own markets. The current narrative is that the QO is evil and must be removed – is there any chance that changes, or is the QO dead in the water?

Dave Cameron: The QO is absolutely a tax on slightly above average players. I don’t think players realized how it would function when they negotiated it, and I think they’ll get it drastically changed in the next CBA.

Comment From EC
I heard someone talk about Nats trading for Kemp. That’s an awful idea, right?

Dave Cameron: Their outfield is pretty well set.

Comment From Darren
Do you think Jays had planned this ‘wait’ strategy all along for pitcher free agents? and do you think this will end up working (ie: prices drop and they sign one or two of Jimenez / Santana)

Dave Cameron: No, I think this delayed pitcher market is entirely because of the Tanaka delay.

Comment From Brandon
When will the Orioles pry open their wallet wide enough to sign a free agent you can identify without googling?

Dave Cameron: I’d bet on them signing one of the remaining big name free agent pitchers, and Kendrys Morales.

Comment From rsf
Thoughts on the Freeman deal? Seems like a reasonable price, but I am not sure why the Braves felt the need to lock him up already. I imagine something close to this deal could have happened next year, even if Freeman was great again in 2014.

Dave Cameron: With two years to go before free agency, Votto landed a 10 year, $225 million extension. If Freeman had another great year, his price would have been closer to that than what he just signed. No way was he going to sign away five free agent years for $110 million if he had another good year.

Comment From Brad
Nice article on Ken Griffey, Jr. trade. Did Pat Gillick make that trade? Can Ruben Amaro ever become half as good as Gillick?

Dave Cameron: Gillick made that trade, but I don’t really know how much credit you give him for being forced into making a deal he didn’t want to make. He also offered Griffey 8/148, which would have been a franchise crippling contract had he taken it.

Comment From Guest
When does the Braves’ TV deal expire?

Dave Cameron: 2097 or something. A long time from now.

Comment From Kevin
What are your predictions for where Santana, Jimenez, and Burnett sign?

Dave Cameron: I’ll go with Baltimore, Toronto, and Pittsburgh.

Comment From Furman
Any update to how the Mariners are going to handle Ackley, Franklin, and Miller?

Dave Cameron: Franklin doesn’t have a job, that’s how.

Comment From Paul Friend
I know the pitching market hasn’t resolved yet, but we’re less than two months until the season, and Ryan Goins is still the Jays’ starting 2B. What in the heck are they thinking?

Dave Cameron: I’d expect a spring training trade.

Comment From JimR
The Angels need more (better) starting pitching, but they have no prospects for trade chips. Are they just dead in the water?

Dave Cameron: When you have an elite offense, you can get by with okay pitching. That will be the Angels hope for 2014.

Comment From Jake
How much of a difference is there between Jeremy Hellickson & Jake Odorizzi, projected value-wise? It’s widely assumed that Jake will inherit the 8-12 starts that Hellickson is likely to miss recovering from his minor elbow surgery.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Hellickson is that good, so I’d say not much.

Comment From Gson
Cubs fans are going insane over comments from non cubbie fans who say, Javier Baez has a high bust potential. How are these crazies pacified?

Dave Cameron: But realizing that high bust potential doesn’t mean he sucks?

Comment From Vic
Are you high on Brad Miller as others at Fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: I’m a fan, yes.

Comment From Nerd Stalking
FG meetup in Arizona week of 3/11?

Dave Cameron: The following weekend, actually. We’ll be at Salt River Fields and the new Cubs stadium that weekend, so if you see a bunch of pale guys trying desperately to find a microbrew and tweak their Ottoneu rosters, come say hi.

Comment From Sonny with a chance of Grey
Just saw the A’s ZIPS give Gray the ace role. Do you agree?

Dave Cameron: He’s their best pitcher, so yes.

Comment From Kevin
If the Red Sox sign Drew and play Bogaerts at 3B, then Bogaerts never goes back to SS, right?

Dave Cameron: Probably. I think signing Drew would be an admission that they don’t see him as an SS long term.

Comment From SF Dave
Eno brought up the DH penalty of 10% because “coming off the bench to hit is hard”. Is there research to back this? Seems like a hard thing to say as one player can’t be a full time DH AND a full time Position Player at the same age, in the same year.

Dave Cameron: The Book has a whole chapter on this. The DH penalty is absolutely real.

Comment From Bobby
Will CLE find a way to get Gomes’ bat in the lineup every night?

Dave Cameron: He’ll probably be their regular catcher, so yes.

Comment From SF Dave
How stable is a pitcher’s HR/FB ratio?

Dave Cameron: Generally hangs around 10-11%, variation beyond the 9-12% range is almost certainly going to regress.

Comment From Gson
It’s no secret, the entire baseball world covets Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins appear to want Wil Middlebrooks. Who else from the red sox makes this deal go?

Dave Cameron: Like five other good players? Will Middlebrooks isn’t the main piece in a Stanton trade.

Comment From PioJerry
Dave, how do you guys delegate who is going to write about what? Is there like a secret FG message board for just the writers where you guys announce you’ll tackle writing about, for instance, the Freeman extension?

Dave Cameron: We use a tool called Yammer.

Comment From Benzedrine
What would be an “acceptable” wRC+ for Billy Hamilton?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how good his CF defense is. Probably 80-90.

Comment From Buc Stops Where?
Why is there no concise answer regarding how much each team will ACTUALLY receive in 2014 from the league’s new TV deal?

Dave Cameron: Because the only people who know the actual figure are the league and the teams, and they’re not saying?

Comment From Jeff Baker
The Mariners look to be starting 7 lefties. Any chance chance I get a job? Jak Z doesn’t care about my glove…

Dave Cameron: You just signed with the Marlins. Enjoy losing.

Comment From Guest
Do you still contribute to the WSJ?

Dave Cameron: Occasionally.

Comment From Stephen
In fact I’ll trade you Luke Hochevar for Bob Dutton, with us paying 80% of Hoch’s salary.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think FG can afford 20% of Hochevar’s salary, and I don’t know what I’d do with him. Can he write?

Comment From Danny
I just want to say that Jeff Sullivan is my favorite writer on the internet and that I’m grateful to you for bringing him to fangraphs.

Dave Cameron: Probably better to tell him than me.

Comment From john
RE: metal detectors. You get wanded going into every NY baseball game and it doesn’t affect anything. Lines aren’t longer. How exactly would metal detectors worsen the fan experience?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m going to say that lines absolutely are longer if you wand every person coming into the stadium than if you don’t. If you have some physics trick that shows how stopping everyone for an extra 30 seconds to wand them doesn’t actually slow a line down, I’d love to see it.

Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan
Why didn’t the Braves wait another year to extend Freeman to see if his performance was legit?

Dave Cameron: Because they couldn’t afford him in a year if it was.

Comment From Gigi
At this point, are we close to knowing for certain that some pitches (the slider, for instance) are worse for pitchers’ elbows/shoulders than other pitches? Or is that still just a guess? What has to be done to confirm/deny that hypothesis?

Dave Cameron: Just a guess. The guys at ASMI are trying to collect enough data to make these kinds of conclusions, but it’s not an easy project.

Comment From This Guy
To add to the QO question – would hightening the value of the QO fix it? Say, average of top-100 contracts instead of 125?

Dave Cameron: The problem is having a definitive line, where there’s no tax just below and a full tax just above.

Comment From Flick-jibbet
Should the Mariners be shopping Nick Franklin to Pirates/Rockies (or other) for a young center fielder?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Pirates have any use for another 2B when they already have Neil Walker.

Comment From missing mike cameron
Will the Mariners sign anyone who can actually play center field?

Dave Cameron: No, if they sign Cruz, then Saunders likely shifts to CF.

Comment From Danny
What’s the relationship between fangraphs and Hardball Times? I used to read HBT before fangraphs existed and just came back after the relauch– it’s excellent.

Dave Cameron: THT is part of the FG family. It’s where we publish our research and longer pieces now.

Comment From Ryan Brain
Say the Brewers completely suck and are out of the race from the get go. Is Weeks worth anything to anyone?

Dave Cameron: If he would agree to try playing the OF, maybe. But he has previously said no to that.

Comment From Tom
Do you think Trevor Rosenthal or Jason Motte will be closing games for the Cardinals by the end of the season?

Dave Cameron: Rosenthal.

Comment From Needing a home
Where is Mike Carp on Opening day?

Dave Cameron: Pittsburgh.

Comment From Andrew
When was the last time you ate a peanut butter and jelly sandwich?

Dave Cameron: A few days ago. They’re delicious.

Comment From Henry
Say Heyward has 2 good years, no injuries. How much would he be in line to make? Say 6/7 years $150 million?

Dave Cameron: Way more.

Comment From Danny
Did M’s fans overreact to the Jaso-Morse trade? His catching skills were always limited, and without power, his upside as DH is 1-2 wins.

Dave Cameron: So the team traded three years of a cheap +2 WAR player for one year of a more expensive +1 WAR player, and you think it was fine?

Comment From Jake
Best player to test FA in 2014?

Dave Cameron: James Shields.

Comment From dbet
Do you think Freeman can have a better year than 2013?

Dave Cameron: Sure, if he trades some of his BABIP for more ISO.

Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan
I know that everyone thinks that Hahn had a great offseason with the trades and signings he’s made. Do any of these players other than possibly Abreu have any star potential? I see a bunch of future league average regulars which is not how you build an annual contender.

Dave Cameron: Actually, it is. See the Oakland A’s.

Comment From Lenard
Regarding QO: Could they have different levels of a QO with different salaries and different compensation attached, sort of like the NFL does with a first round tender, second round tender, etc.?

Dave Cameron: They could, but I don’t think they want anything that complicated.

Comment From Ter
Paul Goldschmidt’s extension looks pretty sweet, huh? That was a great call by Towers pre-Goldy breakout.

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Rob
Which team hired Max Marchi?

Dave Cameron: If he’s not allowed to say, best bet is the Blue Jays or Rays.

Comment From Zach
I forget and cannot find a quick answer. Do compensation picks related to QOs expire after a period of time?

Dave Cameron: After the draft, yes.

Comment From _David_
You can make it through blizzards but not to a TV studio?

Dave Cameron: Drove my wife’s car through the blizzard. Her car is nice. Mine is old.

Comment From JBD
Harper: over/under 5.0 WAR in 2014?

Dave Cameron: Over.

Comment From Jake
Does Adam Dunn have a HOF case? Wasn’t his fault the Reds/Nats kept putting him in left.

Dave Cameron: It was his fault he sucked at it. No, he shouldn’t even be allowed in with a ticket.

Comment From Rob
Jaso is worth what the Nats got – a top 100 prospect and 2 C+ prospects. Ian Krol already made it to ML as one of the C+ guys.

Dave Cameron: The package the A’s gave up to get Jaso is pretty similar to the package the Nationals gave up to get Doug Fister.

Comment From Danny
Are you optimistic on Abraham Almonte? Think he gets 300+ PAs this year?

Dave Cameron: No, I’d guess he spends the year in Tacoma.

Comment From Matt
You estimated Lester will go for at least 5/$90M. But doesn’t that seem high given Sanchez got 5Y/$88M,Weaver got 5Y/$85, and Wilson got %/$78 and they were substantially better in years leading up to extension compared to Lester, who has apparently lost his best pitcher since 2010.

Dave Cameron: Inflation.

Comment From Danny
Would you rather have an awesome job or a wonderful wife?

Dave Cameron: Wife, easy.

Comment From rsf
Say Morales decided to wait to sign with a new team until after the draft. Is it possible for him to sign a deal with the Mariners with an opt-out date of June 7th? So, basically the Mariners get two months of production, he gets to keep playing, and then he gets to sign with a new team.

Dave Cameron: Mariners would never go for that.

Comment From Jackson
what does a wilson ramos extension look like before the season starts…and after? Why do teams not lock up catchers?

Dave Cameron: Because catchers break down.

Comment From Max
When do you see Gregory Polanco getting the call? May/June?

Dave Cameron: May 1st.

Comment From Tom
Biggest spring trade? Kemp?

Dave Cameron: Maybe Brandon Phillips.

Comment From Andrew
Stefan Romero is just another AAAA guy, right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably.

Comment From David
any projections out on Yanier Bello?

Dave Cameron: Ben Badler called him a non-prospect. Good enough for me.

Comment From dbet
To get to 90 wins, You would need 42 WAR to go with your ~48 replacement level wins. If you had a 5 man bullpen worth 2 wins, you would need 40 more WAR from 20 players. So at 2 WAR a pop, you have a completely average team making 90 wins.

Dave Cameron: Well, no, because you can’t get 2 WAR from your bench players; they don’t play enough. A completely average team would win 81 games.

Comment From Rob
Which would you bet on to be more accurate – KLAW top 100 or ZIPS top 100?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take the human over the computer, but I think the top of the ZIPS Top 100 is closer to what I’d buy than the human lists. I think the prospect rankers generally put too much emphasis on ceiling and not enough on proximity to the majors, so I’d have a guy like Gregory Polanco a lot higher than they would, just as ZIPS does.

Comment From Zach
You said the O’s will sign Morales. Do you think they should? If so, is keeping the pick worth it to forgo his production until after the draft? Assuming, of course, he doesn’t get signed in the meantime.

Dave Cameron: He’s not going to wait until after the draft. If the Orioles can get him for 2/20 or 3/27 or something, he’s probably worth it.

Comment From Robert
Do you think teams with protected first round picks should be more active on free agents with QOs attached? I know second round picks are valuable, but so are major leaguers with deals that would’ve been below market if not for the QO.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if the QO system suck around, I wouldn’t be shocked if the sign-a-QO-player-then-trade-him-in-6-months-plan became a thing.

Dave Cameron: But it won’t stick around.

Comment From Average Sports Fan
If the Reds do deal Phillips, would Hamilton move to 2b or stay in CF?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he’s ever going back to the IF.

Comment From Miley
I’m not saying he shouldn’t be a top tier prospect, but what is so amazing about Polanco? His overall numbers last season across high-A/AA were a little on the pedestrian side, no?

Dave Cameron: Not when you consider his age, no. Good contact skills, gap power, plus speed, good defense. He’s a safe bet to be at least Denard Span and maybe more like Jacoby Ellsbury.

Comment From Sam
Current player to most likely to become a Manager?

Dave Cameron: Sam Fuld.

Comment From XanderFan
Why is everyone so down on Jerrod Parker? 2 yrs experience, 25-16, 3.69 ERA, , 1.24 WHIP and CBS Sports says he’s probably peaked at age 25. Had a brilliant run from May-August in 2013.

Dave Cameron: W-L, ERA, and WHIP are not good ways to evaluate pitchers.

Comment From Rob
Is Carson impacting ZIPS – Marcus Semian is #30 rated prospect.

Dave Cameron: Carson and ZIPS love the same things.

Comment From Big Fan
So the Mariners have addressed catcher, what about closer? I think Rodney is the ticket.

Dave Cameron: He’s worse than Farquhar.

Comment From Moop
If I want Ervin Santana to have a good year, what destination should I be rooting for/against?

Dave Cameron: Colorado.

Comment From Rob
Balfour or Rodney?

Dave Cameron: Balfour is better.

Comment From Karl
If Edgar Martinez was a below-average 3B his entire career instead of primarily a DH, about how many more WAR would he have accumulated?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how far below, but not many.

Dave Cameron: Okay, sorry for the late start, but I have some pieces to edit so you guys have afternoon content, so I gotta wrap this up.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out today.