FanGraphs Chat – 4/23/14
| 11:39 |
: It’s Wednesday chat day and the queue is open.
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| 11:41 |
:
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| 11:41 |
: And while we wait for the chat to start, a recent picture of the puppy.
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| 12:02 |
: Queue is very full today, so just as a fair warning, there are going to be a lot of unanswered questions. I’ll get to as many as I can.
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| 12:02 |
Can Melky have another MVP type season like he did with the Giants? |
| 12:02 |
: Probably not, but I think he could be a solid +3 win player for them.
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| 12:03 |
What happened to the Dbacks? |
| 12:04 |
: They were a mediocre team, they lost their best pitcher, and the replacements have been atrocious. Kevin Towers and Jack Zduriecnik are good friends, and they both should have plenty of time to go fishing together soon.
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| 12:04 |
Liberty is too cute for words. |
| 12:04 |
: It is her primary redeeming quality.
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| 12:04 |
In light of Mike Petriello’s article re: the Indians defensive woes. Do you think if this continues we will see Lindor by the ASB? |
| 12:04 |
: I think we’ll see Lindor by the All-Star break no matter what.
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| 12:05 |
With Seagers struggles is there any chance Franklin takes over 3rd temporarily? |
| 12:05 |
: That wouldn’t help anything. It’s unrealistic and won’t happen, but once the Mariners finally convince themselves that this is a bad team, they should approach Cano about a trade.
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| 12:06 |
Does Tanaka finish in the top 5 in Cy Young voting? He hasn’t really done anything wrong yet. |
| 12:07 |
: His one flaw is going to be the home run ball. He might give up too many longballs to win out.
|
| 12:07 |
: And by win out, I mean the Cy Young.
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| 12:07 |
If you were GM for Phillies what prospects would you expect back for Cliff Lee? |
| 12:08 |
: It all depends on how much money you eat. They have a ton of cash and no need for financial relief, so they should eat as much as possible and ask for the moon.
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| 12:08 |
Hey Dave! Surprised nobody’s talking about Pedro Alvarez improving his plate discipline. SwStr% down from 16.4% to 11.4% and K% down by NINE ppt, echoing what we saw in ST. He’s hitting more flyballs and sustaining his rollickingly high batted ball distance. .151 BABIP masks pointers to a potentially huge progression. Viable NL MVP candidate if this is legit?! |
| 12:08 |
: The hitting more fly balls and the .151 BABIP are related.
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| 12:09 |
Is it possible on the site or do you know what the walk % is for the first batter a reliever faces? Sure feels like it’s much higher than the overall rate. |
| 12:09 |
: You’d need a database to query that.
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| 12:09 |
: Hit up @darenw on Twitter. I bet he can run it for you, and he’s awesome.
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| 12:09 |
Any idea what’s wrong with Cano to this point? He’s going to turn this thing around, right? |
| 12:10 |
: Just not hitting for power; I wouldn’t be too worried.
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| 12:11 |
so…danny salazar? |
| 12:12 |
: Yeah, it’s not good. Cruising through first few innings, then getting rocked. This is how you end up in the bullpen.
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| 12:12 |
Should the Mariners be concerned about Kyle Seager? |
| 12:13 |
: To an extent, yes. He’s become a fly ball hitter who isn’t driving the ball enough to make that profile work, and he hits a ton of infield flies, so the low BABIP isn’t entirely unexpected. Doesn’t hit lefties very well. Nice, solid player. Not a star.
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| 12:14 |
What three players do you think are most likely (however unlikely that is) to provide more WAR than Trout this year if everyone stays healthy? |
| 12:14 |
: McCutchen, Posey, Longoria.
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| 12:15 |
Has there been any research done about prospects not reaching potential due to too much time in the minors? It’s probably paranoia, but I worry about the Cards keeping Oscar Tavares in the minors too long and it hindering his growth. |
| 12:15 |
: Yeah, that doesn’t happen.
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| 12:15 |
Is there anything we can look at in a pitcher’s statistical profile, other than batted ball data, to show why they might have a consistently low BABIP? Kershaw, for example, allowed the highest line drive rate of his career last year but had his lowest BABIP. Thanks! |
| 12:16 |
: Pitch location. Guys who pitch up in the zone will generate more infield flies, and thus a lower BABIP. They’ll usually give up more homers too, however; that’s the trade-off.
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| 12:16 |
Will this be Smoaks last season as mariner? |
| 12:16 |
: I would imagine this is Smoak’s last season as a starter, anywhere.
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| 12:17 |
Curtis Granderson – another Alderson market misread/mistake. Thoughts? |
| 12:18 |
: I didn’t like that deal when they signed it, and I don’t like it now.
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| 12:18 |
Please rank in order of the Puppy’s favorites: Playing, Eating, Sleeping, Biting |
| 12:18 |
: Playing, Playing, Playing, Playing, Sleeping, Biting, Playing…. Eating.
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| 12:18 |
: She lives to play.
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| 12:19 |
How does the Defense metric work? Reds starters have allowed the fourth fewest runs and pitched the third most innings, yet they are 23rd in WAR. The Reds defense is second in this Defense metric (at 15.1). How much of run prevention is pitching vs. how much is defense? How does the breakdown vary across teams? |
| 12:20 |
: We assign full value for all non-HR batted ball outcomes to the fielders and not the pitcher. This is wrong, but no one really knows what the true split should be, and it’s probably different for every pitcher. The guess is that run prevention is about 80% pitching and 20% defense, but a huge majority of the 80% that is pitching is BB/K/HR.
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| 12:20 |
What would be your statistical definition of a “good” player and what is the percentage of “Good” players currently in MLB? 30% |
| 12:21 |
: +3 WAR or better is a good player, to me. I’d guess that there are probably ~100 good players in baseball.
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| 12:21 |
Should the Dbacks enter full rebuild mode at this point? Towers depleted a lot of their minor league talent, and they’re not going to do anything this year. |
| 12:22 |
: Yeah, they need to move into sell mode. Trumbo should be sent to a team that needs a 1B/DH type. Maybe move Prado/Hill, plus all the relievers.
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| 12:22 |
There’s no name on the title, to whom am I speaking? TO WHOM!? HELP ME OH MIGHTY TROUT |
| 12:23 |
: Whoops, guess I should maybe turn that on.
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| 12:23 |
: Better?
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| 12:24 |
Did you like the contract the Braves gave Heyward in the off season |
| 12:24 |
: They know they’re not going to be able to keep him long term, so it gave them some cost certainty for next two years.
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| 12:24 |
Jose Fernandez has a __% chance of winning the Cy Young |
| 12:24 |
: 38%.
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| 12:25 |
When does the puppy become a Dog? |
| 12:25 |
: She turns a year old in a few weeks. But talking to other lab owners, they stay puppies for a while.
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| 12:25 |
Little Richard’s, Bibb’s, or other? |
| 12:26 |
: I live around the corner from Little Richards, but I rarely go there. I took Carson to Bibb’s when he came to town, and he liked it a lot.
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| 12:26 |
How many wins will the Pirates have forgone if Polanco is brought up mid-June, rather than starting the season with the team. |
| 12:26 |
: Less than one.
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| 12:26 |
Are people too quick to forgive a player with good core skills, but injury proneness? Isn’t a consistent 3 WAR/150 G guy as useful as a 5 WAR/150 G guy who only gets ~100 games a year? |
| 12:27 |
: Absolutely not. You’re not going to be able to get +2 WAR in those other 50 games.
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| 12:27 |
: Great and occasionally injured beats the crap out of steady and decent.
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| 12:28 |
How amazing has Mookie Betts’ last year+ been? .296/.418/.477 in 340 PAs in low-A, .341/.414/.551 in 211 PAs in high-A, and now .452/.500/.694 in 70 PA in AA. And he plays plus defense at an up-the-middle position and is a prolific base-stealer with a nearly 90% success rate. |
| 12:28 |
: The real question with Betts is where else can he play. If he can become an above average outfielder, he has a future in Boston. If he’s a 2B only, he’s trade bait.
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| 12:28 |
If MLB stops allowing mid inning pitching changes, how much do strikeouts drop? |
| 12:28 |
: Some, and injury rates go through the roof.
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| 12:29 |
Is it possible that Justin Morneau is back to being his vintage self? |
| 12:29 |
: Coors Field is a wonder drug.
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| 12:29 |
With Hamels back the Phils top 3 is really solid – if the BP stabilizes and the old vets continue producing is there a Wild Card run in this team? |
| 12:29 |
: No.
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| 12:30 |
Do you think the A’s go to a closer by committee setup with Gregerson’s recent struggles finishing games? |
| 12:30 |
: I’d imagine they’ll just go back to Jim Johnson.
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| 12:30 |
Seriously? Trade Cano in year 1 of a 10-yr deal? |
| 12:30 |
: It won’t happen, but this is a team that has little or no use for a guy like Cano, and shouldn’t have ever signed that deal to begin with.
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| 12:30 |
: They’ll be bad when he’s good, and by the time the Mariners are good, that contract will be an anchor.
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| 12:31 |
Hi David. I’m in a bit of a quandary – wRC+ is an attempt to measure individual events and summarize them in a convenient, comparable number. One event, it has seemed to me, has been overlooked (from this and likely many other metrics), namely the Sacrifice Fly. While it is a situational statistic, unlike a HR or a 2B or a BB, it appears to have value but is given none by wRC+. It isn’t registered as an AB and counts against your OBP but appears to me to be a positive outcome. Care to clear things up? |
| 12:31 |
: Sac flies are outs. Outs are bad.
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| 12:31 |
Who would be a good replacement for Jack Z WHEN he gets fired? or at least which franchise will they rob? |
| 12:32 |
: Call everyone listed in STL’s directory and offer them all jobs until someone says yes.
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| 12:32 |
How likely is it that a) the Mariners approach Cano about a trade like you suggested and b) a trade actually happens? |
| 12:32 |
: Zero. It would take way too much pride swallowing for both sides to admit a mistake this early.
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| 12:33 |
Would you vote for Cliff Lee for HoF IF he retired at year’s end? |
| 12:33 |
: Maybe. But I’m a peak-over-longevity, kinda-big-hall guy.
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| 12:33 |
Should the braves be majorly concerned about Justin Upton’s 35% strikeout percentage. Or is this just Justin being Justin? |
| 12:34 |
: This is what he does.
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| 12:34 |
Without any rebound performance, do you think that Arizona’s awful start will lead to Towers and Gibson getting booted, or just Towers? |
| 12:34 |
: I’d imagine everyone is getting fired there.
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| 12:34 |
A coworker was just diagnosed with Cancer. As a survivor, any tips on how I can best be supportive? Thanks! |
| 12:35 |
: If they’re going to be hospitalized during chemo/radiation, just go and hang out. Bring board games. Bring food. Hospitals are lonely places. Be around.
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| 12:35 |
Can the Mariners trade Cano without eating any of his salary? |
| 12:36 |
: Nope. They outbid the only other interested team by $65 million.
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| 12:37 |
I thought of it this when I saw McCann catch Tanaka and Lester complain about calls: If pitchers were more aware of pitch framing, would they deman good pitch framers. I’m kinda surprised the entire Red Sox rotation hasn’t demanded David Ross catch them. |
| 12:37 |
: Pitchers have been aware of this forever. Remember Charlie O’Brien?
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| 12:37 |
How do you see Mesoraco continuing this year? |
| 12:38 |
: He’s a good solid catcher. He won’t keep this up.
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| 12:38 |
Good hitters typically have better BABIPs than poor hitters, correct? If that is true, then at what point can we look at a young player running a higher BABIP and determine he is simply hitting the ball harder? Is this where we look at other stats that show where and how hard the ball is being hit? What are some of the stats you would recommend looking at? |
| 12:39 |
: Yes, hitters have more control of the quality of their contact than pitchers do, so the natural spread in hitter BABIP is larger. The key drivers of BABIPs are line drives, avoiding infield flies, and not hitting a ton of fly balls. Guys like Jose Bautista will always post low BABIPs because every ball is in the air. Guys like Joey Votto post high BABIPs because everything is hit straight.
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| 12:40 |
What’s your thought on Dan Haren’s idea of incorporating opposing batter skill into pitching WAR (and maybe vice versa for that matter)? |
| 12:40 |
: It’s worth doing; it’s just a little complicated.
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| 12:41 |
: There are a lot of tweaks we could make that would incrementally improve WAR. You can always be improving on models.
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| 12:42 |
My father claims I am insane for being bothered by Rick Vaughn in “Major League” being a dominating starting pitcher based on only a 96-100 mph fastball, but I don’t think there is anything close to a real life Rick Vaughn ever, is there? |
| 12:42 |
: Tony Cingrani?
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| 12:43 |
: More about deception than velo, but a good one pitch starter.
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| 12:43 |
Assuming that the pirates hold out for super 2 stauts with polanco when is that date exactly |
| 12:43 |
: No one really knows. Late June.
|
| 12:44 |
At what point would Batter v Pitcher data become useful? |
| 12:44 |
: When it’s batter versus pitcher type and not specific pitcher.
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| 12:45 |
I’m sure the Red Sox or Jays would be happy to take Cano in the next year or two. Huge markets, and almost no money committed past next year. Although, a position shift would be required sooner in Boston. |
| 12:45 |
: If that was true, both would have pursued him in free agency. Neither did.
|
| 12:46 |
Do you see Drew and Morales signing after the draft? Who would you guess are their primary suitors? |
| 12:46 |
: I bet Morales re-signs with the Mariners sooner than later. Scott Boras is probably texting pictures of Morales taking BP every day.
|
| 12:47 |
: Drew to DET still makes some sense after the draft.
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| 12:48 |
Given what you said about Seager’s profile, what type of contract extension would you offer him? |
| 12:48 |
: I wouldn’t.
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| 12:49 |
Does rebuild mode for ARI include bringing up Archie Bradley? |
| 12:49 |
: He’s not ready.
|
| 12:50 |
Are Michael Brantley’s early season home run numbers sustainable? If he develops some extra power, his contract becomes even more of a steal |
| 12:50 |
: Probably won’t keep this up, but guys adding power is one of the primary ways they improve in a hurry.
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| 12:50 |
At what point do the Sox start exploring other positions with Betts? Or does he stay at second as the centerpiece of a Stanton deal? |
| 12:51 |
: I’d probably start moving him around now. Teams know he can play 2B; figure out where else he can play in case a trade never develops.
|
| 12:52 |
Cano for Kemp… who says no? |
| 12:52 |
: The Dodgers.
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| 12:52 |
Why is Jean Segura this terrible? What do you expect from him going forward. |
| 12:53 |
: The swing-at-everything approach only works if you hit for power.
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| 12:53 |
If, theoretically, Cano were to allow a trade, is there any team that would actually take on this contract and give something of value in return? Would it even be in the realm of possibility to get an Oscar Taveras or Joc Pederson from a contending team that needs a 2B? |
| 12:53 |
: Sure, if you ate $100 million of the deal. Maybe more.
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| 12:54 |
: If you want an elite young player back, you aren’t getting it for a guy no one else would have signed for that price in FA.
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| 12:55 |
Who is the worst defensive player you’ve ever seen and what made him so bad? |
| 12:55 |
: Jesus Montero, Catcher.
|
| 12:55 |
: Not a single redeeming quality.
|
| 12:56 |
Mike Moustakas….any value there this year? His OBP has always been terrible, but I have this thing for former high first round draft picks… |
| 12:56 |
: So did Jim Bowden
|
| 12:57 |
My pet peeve in baseball is a player not being able to advance the runner at second with nobody out. Whats yours? |
| 12:57 |
: People complaining about hitters not making outs on purpose.
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| 12:58 |
Can balls in play data (LD%, GB%, OFB%, etc) from the California and Pacific Coast League help mitigate/balance the extreme hitting environments when evaluating players? |
| 12:58 |
: No, minor league batted ball data is mostly useless.
|
| 12:58 |
what would you expect the real world record of a team made up of entirely replacement level players be? Related, can one arrive at a reasonable estimate of a team’s record by combining the WAR of all players on the roster? |
| 12:59 |
: A replacement level team would win about 48 games, by definition. So total team WAR, +48 wins, gets you in the ballpark of expected wins at the team level. It isn’t designed to match up exactly, but it’s usually +/- 10 wins for every club.
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| 1:00 |
Prime Pujols vs. Prime Miggy. Select one. |
| 1:00 |
: Pujols.
|
| 1:01 |
Where would Morales fit in SEA? Don’t they already have a billion 1B/DH types? |
| 1:01 |
: Hart would play OF more. Also, Smoak and Morrison are basically useless.
|
| 1:01 |
Johnny Cueto is one of the 5 best starting pitchers in baseball. True or false? |
| 1:02 |
: False.
|
| 1:02 |
will you have a hall of fame vote by the time Lee is eligible? |
| 1:03 |
: Who knows. I’m seven years away from a HOF vote based on current rules, but I’m guessing it gets changed before then.
|
| 1:03 |
This is why I don’t see a Stanton to Boston trade. He will want a huge contract, and the Sox have moved on from that kind of thing..or so they say. |
| 1:03 |
: They’ve moved on from those types of deals for free agents. Young stars in their 20s are another story.
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| 1:05 |
I think Lee *could* make it in. If he manages another four years at or close to this level, he will be at or close to Schilling’s win total. Schilling is an interesting comp, and he will probably get in. |
| 1:06 |
: The writers won’t put Mike Mussina in the HOF. Their bar for pitchers right now is insane.
|
| 1:06 |
: Okay, off to get some lunch and watch some baseball. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Must hurt losing to Houston like that.
It does, but not so much now that we’re getting used to it. Just got swept by the Marlins too…
Does.
No one cares about your puppy. stick to baseball
You seem like a bitter, unhappy person damm.
Love hearing about the puppy….
Point is we come to thee chats to hear about baseball not to learn about his puppy. Most of us aren’t lame mariner fans wanting to suck up to Dave. Stick to baseball. You’re personal life isn’t interesting
Chill out. You’re reading a free chat that is 98% baseball. If he wants to spend a couple of lines talking about his dog, so what? Do you bitch at Eno when talks about beer?
absolutely. Enos’ chats are 60% baseball, 40% beer. it’s ridiculous that he takes so many off topic questions while people make an effort to hang for the hour or two and send in legit questions.
Hearing Dan talk about video games, Jeff talk about volcanoes, Dave talk about his dog, or Eno talk about beer are all infinitely more interesting than reading some esoteric question related to somebody else’s fantasy team. It’s not that hard to skip/ignore the stuff you’re not interested in.
I think they have a good mix going, keep the chats as is!
Your life must be pretty boring if you come to these chats to hear about volcanoes
I guarantee nobody cares about your opinion on the chat, or what you feel is or isn’t interesting. Find a different site if you don’t like it.
e123:
why is your chat comment any more valuable than James’s or anyone else’s?
You can be pretty sure that people spend time on this site and attend the chats for the insightful baseball content. They’re not coming for the other stuff. We get that that the other stuff may be a little relief from baseball 24/7 for the staff but I’m not sure that readers should be all that invested in keeping the staff “happy” as it were. People spend the time and make an effort to send in legit questions and it’s disappointing when dog or beer or vulcan questions invariably take a good portion of the chats. Whether or not M’s talk pervades the chats, that’s still MLB…
Agree with laloosh. Great post. The M’s talk bothers me much less than the off topic discussion.
Three things about a dog, one before the chat even started. And recent history has shown that several people *are* interested in Dave’s puppy, or else it wouldn’t keep coming up. Also it’s a freaking chat, and if you got to see the queue most of the time, you wouldn’t think there’s actually that much effort being put into asking questions.
If you’re really that bothered by the way the chats are conducted, you’re just looking for reasons to be annoyed by the site, and if you’re looking for reasons to be annoyed by the site, you don’t enjoy the site and you’re more than welcome to take yourself elsewhere. The chats aren’t 100% baseball. The chats are >90% baseball, and they last at least an hour, and you can read the transcript when they’re finished. Also consider that the chatters most likely to post off-topic questions are also the chatters most likely to chat for way, way more than the one-hour scheduled session. Which actually means more baseball than you’d get otherwise.
Basically, quit being a bitch. Only bitch anyone here cares about is Liberty.
“Your life must be pretty boring if you come to these chats to hear about volcanoes”
… says the guy getting into a vitriolic argument on the comments section of a baseball stats online chat on a spring afternoon.
Jeff Sullivan drops the hammer!
“Only bitch anyone here cares about is Liberty.”
True story. Patrick Henry opined the only alternative to Liberty was death. So, essentially, if damm doesn’t like Liberty, then…well…
I didn’t come here (to the comments) to bitch about the dog (no pun intended) but once it was raised, I’ll add support to those who are annoyed by all the off-topic nonsense that sometimes occurs in the chats. Sorry that these comments ruffles some feathers. It is meant to be constructive, not destructive.
Actually, for such a reasonable and open-minded guy, I’m surprised that Jeff doesn’t see (or chooses not to) the other side of this. And yes, it is insulting to tell people they can “just go elsewhere if they don’t like it…” These are the same people who have built the traffic of this site. Of course, the site or the chats aren’t going to go away if the people annoyed by the OT comments leave, but these are constructive comments. If people are saying that the site sucks or that Szym guy is an idiot, that might be a completely different matter.
I just can’t understand the perspective. Maybe it’s because my only experience with the chats is being on the other side of them. But, the off-topic stuff takes like 20 seconds, and it doesn’t get in the way of the baseball questions. There is so, so much baseball content in each chat that it seems like if you’re complaining you’re just looking for problems. Sure, it could be 100% baseball all the time. But sometimes authors like the off-topic prompts, and it makes them happier, and it makes the chats feel like less of an obligation, which is what they are. They’re something casual but sometimes overwhelming we do for the readers, and if they’re 98% good, seems better to concentrate on the 98% than the 2%.
Dave addressed about 70 questions today. A couple were about his dog, and a handful more were about the Mariners (who are still a baseball team, technically). Something like 55-60 questions were not about the dog or the Mariners or where Dave lives. 55-60 questions, in one hour. That is so much that is being provided. Appreciate it.
yeah, FTR I don’t mind the 3 dog comments. What I do mind is the maybe 20% or more of Eno’s chats being about beer. Should I just look at the 80% good stuff and ignore the rest that is filler? I guess. I could go thru life and just look at the good in everything and none of the annoyance I suppose. However, when you’re on this side of things and asking good baseball questions which mostly go unanswered while beer Q&As go by, it can be frustrating.
I thought we could feel free to express that here w/o being attacked for it.
Eno commonly chats for about two hours. We’re always scheduled to chat for one hour. Would you prefer Eno chat for half as long about 100% baseball? Let’s say he gets to 50 questions an hour. Let’s say 20% of the questions he answers are about beer or something else off-topic! That means, in a two-hour chat, he fields 80 baseball questions. In a one-hour ideal chat, he’d field 50 baseball questions. That is 30 fewer baseball questions. And one of the reasons he sticks around so long is because he likes chatting, in large part because he likes being able to talk about a variety of subjects, with baseball at the core.
God forbid any of the writers or readers here have an actual personality or interests unrelated to baseball.
Come on dude, lighten up. The site (and the world) would be a much shittier place if we were never allowed to color outside the lines a little.
I’m pretty sure he can talk about whatever he wants on his own chat. If you don’t like it, there’s plenty of inferior baseball related sites and inferior baseball people to chat with…
He admitted in the chat that he has tons of questions and he’s wasting time talking about the puppy. This is on top of the fact that he constantly takes too many mariner questions. The rest of us dont care about your shitty irrelevant team
Should I just re-post my comment again for you? Cause nothing you just wrote in your response changes my comment one bit.
how long do you think it takes to post a picture of a dog
Your a fucking idiot. Get a life
Clearly nobody cares about the Mariners……there’s obviously a reason there are a lot of Mariners questions, maybe, just maybe, because people DO care about them. A losing team that made a $240 million splash in the offseason is intriguing, probably even more-so because of the terrible start. So clearly there are people here that care about the Mariners, it’s not like Dave is just posting Mariners questions so he can answer them himself. You may not care about them, I don’t care about them all that much, but it’s baseball and there are 30 teams out there, and they all have fans.
this should end well
If that were true, no one would ask the questions.
You do know how these chats work, right?
We don’t know how many are asking. I bet its just 2-3 mariner fans sucking up to dave and he cherry picks their questions
Mariners fans are overrepresented in the chat population, so Mariners questions will be overrepresented in the chat queue.
You’re right. The Mariners fans, all 3 of us have a special code word we use at the top of our questions so that Dave can filter yours out.
You figured it out.
Are mariner fans overrepresented in the general fangraphs audience that reads these chats? I doubt it. If they were, does FG want it to stay that way?
Just offering feedback on what would make these chats better. The “this is a free chat, leave if you don’t like it” response is a copout. Like any publication they want more readers. And to the rest of us, constantly focusing on a boring, crappy team like the mariners is not interesting. Sorry if that touches a nerves for you M’s fans
If you can’t see all the non-Mariners content, you’re not trying.
I’m talking about the chats not the overall content
I like how you say ‘Just offering feedback on what would make these chats better.’ as if you are some kind of victim getting unwarranted wrath from people in here. As if you forgot the manner in which you started your noble quest ‘to offer feedback that would make these chats better’ was to say, ‘No one cares about your puppy. stick to baseball’ followed up by saying that fans are sucking up to him and that his personal life isn’t interesting.
At this point, I think you’re just an attention seeking troll…
I guess he doesnt know Dave started a pretty popular blog called USSMariner and whats the problem with finding out personal interests of our favorite writers, I cant think of a place where we can interact with our favorite writers and learn a little about each other
Did you ever think a lot of Mariner fans probably log in to chat with the man who is a baseball expert and follows the Mariners pretty closely knowing he knows a lot about the club they love, therefore they ask a lot of questions about said club?
I’m not a Mariner fan, I like the Dodgers and A’s. But this site and the perspectives of the people who write here are generally interesting and worthwhile, and even if I don’t really care too much one way or the other about the Mariners, I don’t mind taking a little extra Mariner content with the rest of the great content, because even the Mariner stuff is generally discussed in an interesting way.
It’s true though.
#6 organization might as well troll everyone and answer all dog questions instead.
Especially which ones are the hottest bitches.
Your a fucking moron. No wonder you are still a virgin.
I feel like I’m reading ESPN
To be fair, I don’t think Triumph is a virgin. He was ALWAYS humping things, both animate and inanimate.
‘And yes, it is insulting to tell people they can “just go elsewhere if they don’t like it…”’
Is that more or less insulting than telling the fans they are sucking up to Dave, that no once cares about his personal life, or that he should stop talking about his dog and the carpy Mariners’
Civility goes both ways. Hard to find any sympathy for the insult you describe after seeing how the poster was in his posts.
Jimmer for the win. Poke a dog, poke a dog, tease a dog, poke, poke, “Gee I don’t understand why he bit me?!?”
(Because we needed more dog analogies.)
Coors is helping Morneau for sure, but away from Coors he’s hitting over .320 and has an OPS in the .870s.
I hope it’s true that Morneau has found his prime once again. However, you are talking about 11 hits in 35 road PAs. Tiny sample size.
The whole 2014 season is tiny sample size so far. We have what we have. Tiny sample size in his home splits too.
Re: trade destinations for Cano (even if it would never happen, at least not this year, and certainly not without the Mariners eating a lot of money):
A destination team would need a big payroll, consider itself in contention, and not have somebody else good (or signed) at 2B long-term (beyond 2015/6), right? (And not be the Yankees, I can’t imagine them agreeing to bring him back via trade at this point.)
I think that rules out everybody but both LA teams (does A. Guerrero have a MLB future at 2B? Would the Angels try a huge-contract swap?), Giants (even though they seem to have good-prospect depth there), Blue Jays, and Rockies. Maybe the Rangers? (What’s Andrus’ future w/ TEX? Will Profar move to short? Are they concerned about his health?).
But, who saw the Kinsler/Fielder trade coming? Another big-payroll team could jump in, but even then, who besides Philly would even consider it?
“Dave Cameron: Sac flies are outs. Outs are bad.”
You writers… Sac flies are runs. Runs are good.
Every team would trade an out for a run. 27 outs = 27 runs.
“Sac flies are runs”
False. Sac fly can move a runner from 1st to 2nd, or 2nd to 3rd.
So 27 outs =/= 27 runs.
Good Lord.
@Jason B…
Actually no, a sacrifice fly does not move a runner to 2nd or 3rd. A sacrifice fly moves a runner to home. I appreciate your snark tho.
My bad! (Snark is still free of charge.)
Do hitters get credited with a sacrifice if they hit a grounder and it moves a runner over? I could look it up but you guys know of what you speak, obviously.
Sac Fly only counts when the runner scores on the play. So you’re wrong.
Sac flies are only categorized as such (not an official at bat) if a runner on base scores. If a batter flies out and moves a runner over from 2nd to 3rd then it is not a sac fly (much in the same way that a ground ball to the right side that moves a runner from 2nd to 3rd is merely base advancement).
It’s not an either/or situation between the run and the out in that situation. On top of that, you’re limiting your ability to maximize runs scored after the at bat.
This Guy’s got it.
By that logic every team would trade 3 outs for a run since 9 runs usually is enough to win, but I doubt any batter coming to the plate with the bases loaded and no one out who hit into a run scoring triple play would feel satisfied with his performance.
A sac fly is an out that scores a run in a situation where a run was already likely to score anyway. Yes, an out that brings the runner home from third is better than an out that doesn’t–but to determine its value, you have to compare it to all possible events that can happen in that situation, not just to other outs! And when you do that, you find that, on average, a sac fly actually decreases the run expectancy for the inning (though there are a couple situations where it’s a very slight positive). RE24 is your friend!
http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html
The run is already likely to score because it is a situation in which a sac fly is feasible in the first place. If you take away the possibility of a sac fly, I question how “likely” it is that the run actually is scored.
If a sac fly scores a run, how can it possibly lower the possibility of a run being expected to score? Unless you mean it lowers the expectancy of an ADDITIONAL run being scored, in which case that makes sense, since it doesn’t add a baserunner into the mix. Not trying to be a jackass, just trying to understand what you mean.
It reduces the total run expectancy for the inning. Obviously, yes, it puts a run in the bank that was only a potential run before, but the additional out drastically reduces the potential for further runs.
That said, I do think that Dave’s answer was pretty crude. It’s not a matter of “sac fly good” vs. “sac fly bad.” The way to think about it is, “given a runner on third and less than two outs, how valuable is a sac fly relative to all other possible events that could occur in that situation?” That’s the kind of question that the run expectancy table helps us answer.
Dave I really enjoy reading your chats and blogs. But the suggestions you make regarding cancer patients is both helpful and inspiring. I am sure your words help both the patient and the friend.
We don’t come here for cancer advice. Stick to baseball
that was uncalled for. there are actual people typing in these comments… people with blood flowing thru their veins.
I’m fairly sure the above comment was a joke. (Although one with extremely bad taste I might add)
I don’t think it’s a joke; I think he’s just a jackass.
LOL at first I thought this was a hilarious parody post trying to mock the original complainer with an over-the-top caricature of his petty complaint, but it turns out that it’s the original complainer parodying himself. Even better.
Wow, damm. Really?
I learned a long time ago that not everything has to be exactly how I want it or curtailed just to me lest I complain rudely (and anonymously, BTW) from the mountaintops. FOR EXAMPLE, I’m not a Mariner’s fan. His dog is cute and all, but whether or not anyone talks about the dog, beer or volcanoes (all of which isn’t of any particular interest to me, personally),it doesn’t stop me from being able to enjoy the chats. Doesn’t make me appreciate them any less. If anything, quite the opposite because there are a lot of people in here that clearly like that’s it’s more like a real chat as opposed to some robotic Q&A and these guys get that.
The chats here are far and away the best out there for baseball related info…these guys are good at this.
I’d also add that it took me 4 or 5 chats to get a question answered…and it didn’t bother me one bit that there were non-baseball related topics being discussed during the chat while my questions were left unanswered. Again, it doesn’t have to be all about me to enjoy it. I don’t have to feel slighted or mad because, goodness forbid, my question wasn’t answer even though I took oh so much time out of my busy life to sit on my behind and participate in a chat…as if that takes a bunch of effort or it’s some kind of big sacrifice for me.
Buddy you aren’t going to get hired as a fanghraphs writer. You can stop being a shill for them
I’m perfectly happy with my job, thank you very much.
Trade Cano? Isn’t the point to try and GET good players, not trade them away?
Not when they have one of the worst contracts in baseball on a team that isn’t (likely) to be competitive.
i, for one, welcome all the mariners questions. i come to fangraphs to learn as much about baseball as i can, regardless of the team or topic.
living in new england, it isn’t too hard to find people in real life to talk baseball about… if you want to discuss the yankees, red sox or maybe mets. Even finding die hard fans of those teams isn’t a challenge. want to have an discussion involving all of baseball even “irrelevant” teams like the mariners? that’s tougher. throw in fans who are knowledgeable about saber metrics and topics covered on fangraphs and it gets difficult.
point being- sites like this aren’t commonplace, especially for free.
Woof! Woof!
Dave always leaves out the best part. That picture is actually taken by Dick Cam, which was about to enter my mouth in the next shot. Dave can’t control himself, so he never can give me a warning tap. He always blows down my throat.
Woof! Woof!