FanGraphs Chat – 5/8/13

Dave Cameron: Hey all – we’ll go ahead and get started in 15 minutes, but the queue is now open. Get your questions in now.

Comment From Pete
What are your thoughts with regard to swinging at the first pitch as opposed to being more patient at the plate?

Dave Cameron: If you get a middle-middle fastball, let it loose. There are certainly times when first pitch swinging is the right plan. You shouldn’t be looking to take pitches just to take pitches. The point is to swing at hittable pitches. If you get a first pitch hittable pitch, swing at it.

Comment From JEB
Do you think Tazawa has a chance to take over the closer role? Or do the Sox have too much money in the other guys to keep him in there?

Dave Cameron: Tazawa’s an extreme fly ball guy, and closers don’t always love putting guys like that in the closer’s role because of their HR problems. But, I think he could hold the job until Bailey’s healthy.

Comment From Koby
How many Ks does Darvish finish the season with?

Dave Cameron: He already has, what, 70? I’ll go with 263.

Comment From Guest
Is Dexter Fowler on his way to becoming an elite player?

Dave Cameron: Probably a step below that, but he’s clearly very good.

Comment From Eric
Albert Pujols currently has 86.3 WAR. Does he make it to 100?

Dave Cameron: Well, he’s got nine years left on his deal, so that’s an average of +1.5 WAR per season. I think so.

Comment From Prich
Are we ready to declare Kyle Seager -at worst- an average MLB 3B, and would be in any era, ‘power’ numbers be damned?

Dave Cameron: Well, yeah, there’s no argument that Seager is a below average player. The question is how far above average, and how much power he will hit for going forward.

Comment From Broken Arrow
True or False: Tampa is all out of magical bullpen pixie dust?

Dave Cameron: It sure looks to be true.

Comment From RK
If B. Starling were to give up and go back to give football a try, would he owe back a portion of his signing bonus? If so until what point and is it straight pro-rated or more upfront? Is that deal specific?

Dave Cameron: I’m not sure, actually. It’s an interesting question. I doubt he’s ready to give up any time soon, though.

Comment From Nolan
Would the Phillies or Mariners have interest in a Dominic Brown/Justin Smoak trade? Seems like both those prospects are entering the “needs a change of scenery” phase of their development.

Dave Cameron: Smoak wouldn’t be helped by a change of scenery unless the new scenery provided him with some physical strength he just doesn’t have.

Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
It’s gonna be Heath Bell in the 9th again w/ Putz looking DL bound isn’t it?

Dave Cameron: Heath Bell has a 19/3 K/BB ratio. I think you’ll live.

Comment From David
So what do you think of Allen Webster? The Twins aren’t the ’27 NYYs here, think he could have himself a good night?

Dave Cameron: Sure. The fastball velocity is legit, and if he’s commanding the secondary stuff, he’s going to be tough to hit.

Comment From Nick
What should the Angels do in the immediate future to help their situation? What they’re doing now (overpaying declining superstars) obviously isn’t working out. Is there any benefit to just starting over and resetting the team (trading guys with reasonable/short contracts like Aybar, Kendrick, Vargas, Hanson, Bourjos)?

Dave Cameron: How would trading the guys who provide value help anything? The problem with failing the way the Angels are failing is that there is nothing you can really do except wait. Hamilton and Pujols will start hitting better, but the commitments there are not ones you can be free of, so the Angels simply have no choice here.

Comment From gooooooldschmidt!
As a D-backs fan, how excited should I be about Didi Gregorius? The offense is surprising (and obviously not sustainable), and the defense has been pretty amazing.

Dave Cameron: The kid can really field, and the bat is probably underrated. I like Gregorius, and I think the Diamondbacks did just fine in that trade.

Comment From Milwaukee BeerJays
Will the RedSox win the division? (damn you magic Farrell)

Dave Cameron: They’re the favorites now, for sure.

Comment From David
Yadier Molina has started all but 1 game for the Cardinals. This worries me. Should it?

Dave Cameron: It is a little odd that Matheny is riding him so hard.

Comment From Nolan
Reds could potentially use some LF help– are there any trade candidates you see as likely targets?

Dave Cameron: Actually, the Reds could use some CF help, which would let Choo play a corner where he belongs. Franklin Gutierrez might actually make sense for them when he gets off the DL, since he’d be able to play a few times per week and serve as a defensive replacement.

Comment From J.B.
Which ballpark, that you’ve not yet visited, is at the top your list?

Dave Cameron: I’ve heard PNC is awesome, and I’m going to try to make it there this summer.

Comment From J
Carson has NERD scores, but who would make your subjective list of pitchers who are the most watchable?

Dave Cameron: I love command guys with great change-ups. So, Cliff Lee is just about perfect for me.

Comment From Grant
Do you think Fangraphs metrics might overrate old-time players? Going by wRC+, only 3 of the top 15 hitters ever played a single after 1970. I find it hard to believe, given the advancements in nutrition, strength training, and overall physicality, that only 3/15 of the best hitters came in the last 40 years.

Dave Cameron: wRC+ measures performance, not individual talent. The guys playing today are almost certainly better athletes, in better condition, than the guys playing 100 years ago. There’s a good chance that a lot of old time players wouldn’t make it in today’s game, with higher velocities and more intense travel demands. But those guys didn’t have access to modern training or nutritional methods either, so why hold that against them? What we care about is how good a player was compared to his peers.

Comment From Anthony
It looks like Dee Gordon made some stark improvements in his brief Triple-A stint. What are the chances he continues those trends in the majors and stays with the big club when Ramirez returns from the DL?

Dave Cameron: You’re going to conclude that he’s entirely different after 18 plate appearances? I’m going to guess that Dee Gordon is still terrible.

Comment From Stew
If you had to put eric hosmer’s season into a nutshell, could he hit a groundball hard enough to break said nutshell?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to go with no.

Comment From AW
You buy Pineda throwing 95?

Dave Cameron: Sure. He used to throw 99, so reports of him hitting 95 wouldn’t be that weird.

Comment From zack
Do you see any reason for optimism about Josh Hamilton or is he permanently broken?

Dave Cameron: Well, he’s hit well with terrible strike zone judgment before. He’ll have a good run where he gets some mistakes and crushes them. But he desperately needs to make some changes.

Comment From tylersnotes
which is a more likely scenario– the trend in contract extensions is successful enough that Ryan Howard-style contracts represent some value given diminishing FA availability on the horizon; or enough locked-up players bust that teams largely back away from buying out too many arb years? Or will we hit some sort of stasis with teams taking diverse approaches balance each other out?

Dave Cameron: Ryan Howard has been worth -1.3 WAR over the past calendar year. No amount of inflation will make that contract not ridiculous.

Comment From Scott
What’s next for the Blue Jays?

Dave Cameron: A couple more months of better play that isn’t good enough, then a mid-season sell-off of Josh Johnson.

Comment From Dennis
Should the Mariners get a L catcher to platoon with Shoppach (until Zuniono is ready) and send Montero to AAA to DH daily?

Dave Cameron: Well, if you’re getting a left-handed catcher to share a platoon, then you’re getting a starting catcher. And there aren’t many left-handed catchers in baseball to begin with. Yes, the M’s should send Montero down, but it’s not clear how they’d replace him. This is why the John Jaso trade was just so stupid.

Comment From Clifton
Obviously Iwakuma’s start isn’t sustainable, but could he settle in at Kuroda-like numbers?

Dave Cameron: That’s the upside, sure. He probably won’t have Kuroda’s HR suppression skills though.

Comment From thanks for the chizzat
Who makes more starts this season… Allen Webster of Felix Doubront?

Dave Cameron: Webster.

Comment From Three Fingers Stump
Are you amazed that Happ only has a head contusion and left ear laceration from last night?

Dave Cameron: Thrilled more than amazed.

Comment From Milby
Dave, I’ve been asking a question about Fangraphs park factors in chats for a while, but haven’t been able to get an answer. Is there an email, board, or other communication method where I can direct this sort of question? Thanks for all you do.

Dave Cameron: Probably your best bet is to post it in the Q&A section.

Comment From Chicago CUBBIES
Is Valbuena a starter longterM?

Dave Cameron: Probably not, but he could have a nice run as a fill-in stopgap for a couple of years.

Comment From Dave
If the Phils fall out of contention, who might they look to get trade? It seems that they don’t have any players that could fetch decent returns, unless they find someone to take Lee who isn’t on his no-trade list.

Dave Cameron: Cliff Lee is the obvious guy to market. Given the lack of pitching that will be available and the inflation that makes his contract seem more reasonable, they should be able to get a solid return for him.

Comment From jeff
if you could choose one oriole for the rest of the year, do you take machado?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I might. He’s very good.

Comment From zack
What are the odds Darvish posts the first 300K season since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2002? 20%?

Dave Cameron: Let’s say he throws another 180 innings, so he’d need 230 K. That’s 11.5 K/9. That’s doable.

Comment From Bruce
How many more years can Davod ortiz conitinue being an above average DH?

Dave Cameron: Well, he’s now showing any signs of slowing down right now. I’d say at least two.

Comment From Hunter Pences Thorax
Does Sano or Buxton get a cup of coffee in September?

Dave Cameron: There’s no reason to rush them.

Comment From Jon in CUO
It seems like the top echelon of all-time hitters are 55-70% better than average over their careers, while the top pitchers are more like 35-50% better. I’m using OPS+ and ERA+ to measure this, but I think looking at wRC+ and ERA- and would yield similar results. Why is this and what does it mean? Appreciate if you can point me to any articles about this as well.

Dave Cameron: Actually, I think you won’t find that ERA- and ERA+ match up there, because ERA+ is calculated in a poor manner, and gives off a false sense of what it is actually measuring. Also, by comparing wRC+ and ERA-, you’re comparing just hitting against all of a pitcher’s run prevention, and ignoring a position player’s defensive contributions or limitations.

Comment From Jaack
Jeff Sullivan said in yesterday’s chat that Eno burps too much. Is this true?

Dave Cameron: He has some kind of stomach issue. Every year, when we go to Phoenix, I always forget to order him a special no-cheese pizza for our staff dinner at Cibo.

Comment From Dan
So Rick Porcello has a 3.75 xFIP, but clearly hasn’t seen the results match (which has been a trend his entire career). What exactly is he right now? Just a guy who needs out of Detroit? Or a guy who can’t keep the ball in the park and struggles with runners on, so his results probably won’t ever match his fielding independent skills?

Dave Cameron: A pitch-to-contact guy on a terrible defensive team. He needs a new home, where defense is actually played.

Comment From NED
Quick fix to the Dodgers or season over?

Dave Cameron: Making Kenley Jansen the closer and Brandon League a righty specialist would help.

Comment From Milby
Does an ERA vs FIP/xFIP gap always indicate a good buy low opportunity? Or are there circumstances (decreased velocity, injury, etc) where ERA become becomes a better predictor of future performance?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the sample, but you should never really limit yourself to just one or two data points. Use all the information you have.

Comment From Desperate!
Hey Dave! I have a question about what type of XML or API feeds you use at FG in order to obtain the stats needed for Ottoneu. I’m a founder of a start-up that helps nonprofits raise money through sports-related donations. To do this, though, we need a XML or API feed for leagues that aren’t the big 4, like Major League Lacrosse and Cape Cod Baseball League. Thank you!

Dave Cameron: Hit up @ottoneu on Twitter. Niv might be able to help you.

Comment From Andrew
Career advice? Bleacher Report obviously has certain qualities about it that I’ll leave unsaid, but is it a decent place to get to your foot in the door?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what door you’re trying to open.

Dave Cameron: I will say that as the guy who does hiring for FG, I don’t see Bleacher Report on a resume as a positive.

Comment From Dan
The Anibal Sanchez deal looks pretty good right now. You buying this new found improvement? Contact % and SwSTr% are the best they’ve ever been for him. Is he a legitimate #1 pitcher type?

Dave Cameron: I’ve always liked Sanchez and I liked the contract from the get go. He’s a good pitcher.

Comment From thanks for the chizzat
Felix in ~25 minutes. Rejoice.

Dave Cameron: If you have MLB.tv, this Seattle/Pittsburgh game is worth watching, especially if you love Ks. Bad line-ups, good pitchers, great camera angle.

Comment From Jon
What do you make of Jay Bruce’s lack of power to start the season? He’s hit some nice doubles, but nothing is leaving the yard…

Dave Cameron: Jay Bruce has been worth +0.7 WAR over the last year. This isn’t an April problem.

Comment From thanks for the chizzat
So will Carson, Eno, etc. be voting on awards this season?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, but not necessarily. The BBWAA chapter heads decide who gets an awards vote each year, and it’s a combination of a rotation and seniority. The SF/OAK chapter is pretty big, so Eno probably won’t have a vote most years. The Milwaukee chapter is smaller, so Carson may get one.

Comment From John
Hey if you are coming to PNC I can hook you up with some of my season tix.

Dave Cameron: Well, thanks, but I have a credential that gets me in to any park in the country. It is a nice little privilege.

Comment From gouis
True or False: the ratio of active future HOF pitchers/batters is much lower now than it traditionally is historically

Dave Cameron: True. The BBWAA is currently way too stingy, and is keeping a very small hall of fame for reasons that I entirely disagree with.

Comment From Alex
What do you think Andrelton Simmons’ true talent level with the glove is? Since the start of 2012 he’s 2nd in DRS (1 behind Ryan and 11 ahead of 3rd) and 1st in UZR despite having just 1/2 of a seasons worth of games. What are the chances he is an outlier like Andruw who can consistently save 5+ runs over everyone else at the position?

Dave Cameron: I’d say he’s probably a +10 to +15 defender at short, which is great, but I wouldn’t go any higher than that.

Dave Cameron: And remember that defense peaks early, so it’s probably only going to get worse.

Comment From wade
Do you think that Hechavarria will ever hit enough to be a viable SS for a contending team?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From gouis
Did you ever drink beer?

Dave Cameron: I don’t, no. I don’t have a moral opposition to it, but I just never adjusted to the feeling of alcohol in my throat, and it’s extremely expensive. Water is better for you and free.

Comment From thanks for the chizzat
The Indians offense is awesome. Should they have signed Lohse? Or are those not related?

Dave Cameron: They apparently didn’t have the money for Lohse, but he would have helped them a lot.

Comment From Ehs Fan
Is Tommy Milone this good? SwStr% is up, BBs are down. Inspiration for soft tossers everywhere?

Dave Cameron: He’s good, yes.

Comment From Rudy
Out of the Angels and Dodgers – which team is more likely to rise to the top of their respective division by year’s end?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers. The Angels aren’t quite hopeless, but they’re kind of hopeless. The Rangers are very good and now have a huge lead.

Comment From gouis
Who do you think Josh Johnson gets traded to? Maybe the Angles in another ill advised move?

Dave Cameron: I could see Atlanta getting involved.

Comment From Cubs
Is the pitching market such that the Cubs will (or should) retain Garza?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From thanks for the chizzat
T or F.. the blue jays were a hyped version of “2012 Marlins + Edwin Encarnacion”… Reyes. Lawrie = Hanley. Giancarlo = Bautista. Melky = Ruggiano. Ok so I’m reaching idk.

Dave Cameron: False.

Comment From Brian
Why don’t team start top prospctes directly at Triple A? Wouldn’t repeated reps against the highest level of competition in the minors for 3-4 years be more beneficial to becoming big league ready than following the traditional age appropriate levels? Or is the potential for earlier failure/lost confidence to great?

Dave Cameron: Do you throw newborns in the pool so they can learn to swim before they can walk?

Dave Cameron: AJ Burnett is quietly having a ridiculously great season, and looks nasty again today.

Comment From gouis
That guy who brought up a lefty hitting catcher raises an interesting point. Given the physical demands on a catcher, isn’t it perhaps the best position to design a platoon for?

Dave Cameron: Yep. It is the perfect place to platoon.

Comment From wade
What kind of contract will Ellsbury get next year? 5 years/$75K?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to guess more.

Comment From thanks for the chizzat
Cliff Lee back to Texas?!?

Dave Cameron: That’d be interesting. And Texas will almost certainly be a buyer this summer.

Comment From Josh
As of now, only the Marlins have a worse offense than the White Sox. They were never going to be world-beaters, but how surprising is that their hitting has been so abysmal?

Dave Cameron: Actually, the White Sox passed the Marlins in wRC+ last night, once you take out pitcher hitting. There’s some guys underachieving that will bounce back, but this line-up has some real problems too.

Comment From LaLoosh
wow, Lee at $25M per can’t have many many teams interested.

Dave Cameron: Cliff Lee is good. Baseball teams are rolling in money.

Comment From thanks for the chizzat
When does a minor leaguer, top prospect or not, start making the contract he signed when he was drafted? What do minor leaguers make otherwise? (basically, what was Rendon making before… 3 weeks ago?

Dave Cameron: Minor leaguers get paid a base salary depending on what level they’re at, and then they get a prorated share of the league minimum for the days they’re in the big leagues.

Comment From Prich
Lee for Olt straight up, no money exchanges hands, who says no?

Dave Cameron: The Phillies.

Comment From HUMAN
What’s the difference between ERA+ and ERA-?

Dave Cameron: ERA+ isn’t ERA/lgERA, but lgERA/ERA. Bryan Grosnick did a good job explaining the differences last year. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/9/14/3332194/era-plus-vs-era-minus

Comment From RoboUmp
Does Yadier Molina have a Hall of Fame case?

Dave Cameron: He’s going to be a fascinating case. Unless he plays great for another five years, he’ll have a very short peak, but also a very long career because he came up so early. So he’ll have a lot of good counting stats, and he’ll have had a few HOF worthy seasons, but the overall line probably will be a bit below standards. The question will be how much value people give to his defense.

Comment From thanks for the chizzat
Is there… a way to get into scouting? Seems like former players and such a closed off business. And less glamorous than some think. But alas…

Dave Cameron: Knowing people is a huge part of it. If you really want to get into scouting, I’d suggest just going to as many minor league games as possible, sit behind the plate, and see if you can strike up a non-awkward conversation with a scout when he’s not working.

Comment From person hscer
Did you know that sports links from cnn.com go to Bleacher Report now? How do you think that might have happened?

Dave Cameron: Time Warner bought Bleacher Report, and owns CNN.

Comment From gouis
With Verlander, Scherzer, and Sanchez the Tigers are gonig to be tough in the playoffs

Dave Cameron: Fister isn’t bad either.

Comment From matt
My friends and I like to play couch GM and we were discussing if the Pirates made only one move before the deadline what would be the best move to push them above .500 for the season. Consensus was pretty much a short stop, but I like the idea of another starter like Porcello. What do you think?

Dave Cameron: A shortstop probably helps a little more.

Comment From Bruce
I dont see many ads, FG+ is only 5$ and Ottoneu is also relatively inexpensive. How does FG make money?

Dave Cameron: We generate a lot of ad revenue because we have a lot of traffic (Thanks!) and we have a lot of pages.

Comment From Dan
The MLB.tv free game of the day is Miami @ SD! Thanks MLB! Should be thrilling.

Dave Cameron: That seems like a marketing failure.

Comment From Monty
When you use your credential to get into a baseball game, where do you end up sitting? Press Box? Or do they comp you good seats since your a prominent baseball figure?

Dave Cameron: The BBWAA card gets you access to the park, not a ticket in a seat. I don’t really like watching games in the press box, so usually I’ll just go up there if I have to write during the game. If I don’t, then I’ll find a spot with a decent view where I’m not likely to be intruding on someone’s seat purchase.

Comment From Jeff
Any thoughts on the handling of Jesus Montero? Will he be given full time at bats this year? At 23, seems like big-time mismanagement.

Dave Cameron: There’s no real reason for him to be in the majors right now, besides the fact that the team didn’t bother planning for a contingency in case he was terrible, which he is. He should be playing 1B/DH in Tacoma.

Comment From dude
Is there an age for when the general pitcher starts losing velocity? Is it after they hit a peak of some sort that we can then watch their velo decline? For instance, Harvey’s velocity is up this year, compared to last year, when does his decline in velo begin?

Dave Cameron: Velo peaks very early. Like 21-22.

Comment From Jason
How good do you think Paul Goldschmidt can be? I’ve heard Keith Law say he’s a platoon player in the past because of his struggles with righties, but I feel like he just gets better and better. What are your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s no reason to platoon him . He’s a good player.

Comment From JWR
Cubs can get a (late 1st round) sandwich pick for Garza assuming they tender him. So Garza will fetch a prospect better than that pick?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Andrew
Thanks for reply on Bleacher. I obviously hear you. The issue is these gigs are impossible to get, as you know, so what if you produced strong articles in spite of the site? Or you think their editors would rip anything remotely detailed to shreds?

Dave Cameron: I’m not saying don’t write there. But, really, you don’t need a big platform to do good work. Submit your stuff to the community blog, or put up a fan post on Beyond the Box Score. If you’re doing really good writing/analysis, there are places to get noticed.

Comment From David
Does Burnett give life to the canard about some players just not being able to handle the pressure of big markets like New York? Or is that so much nonsense?

Dave Cameron: He was pretty good in Toronto, which is a huge market.

Comment From Jake
Who is your favorite non-Fangraphs non-Tango sabermetrics researcher?

Dave Cameron: Maybe Phil Birnbaum.

Comment From Future GM (of Little League)
Are GMs making trade phone calls at this point in the season? The writing is on the wall for a lot of teams already, but it seems like no one actually makes impact trades until there’s a looming deadline.

Dave Cameron: Teams are focusing on the draft right now.

Comment From Andrew
What about scouting at the major league level? What kind of people get those jobs? Just former minor league guys?

Dave Cameron: Advance scouting is going away. A lot of teams just do it by video/PITCHF/x now.

Comment From hmm
Does a guy *have* to have power to be worth using in the DH spot? Or is it just “he has to be a good hitter”?

Dave Cameron: No one has to have any specific skill. Everything is a balance of all possible contributions.

Comment From Andrew
Has every new writer you’ve hired had previous professional writing experience, or do you ever take a shot in the dark? Let’s say you went to an elite school and have a journalism degree, but have only written for a school newspaper. But baseball knowledge is strong. Asking for a friend!!

Dave Cameron: We’ve hired people without writing experience. it generally hasn’t gone that well. A lot of being good at writing is coming up with interesting things to write about on a regular basis, and it’s tough to know whether you can do that until you have had to. We are open to hiring people with limited writing resumes, but strongly prefer some experience.

Comment From Bill
Fangraphs+….worth buying right now or value decreases once the season begins?

Dave Cameron: It’s always worth buying. Even if you don’t necessarily need the fantasy slanted pre-season pieces, it gets you access to the pieces we do for ESPN Insider each week.

Comment From thanks for the chizzat
Would you rather do dishes, vacuum, or dust?

Dave Cameron: I vacuum, and it’s not bad. Dusting is the worst.

Comment From Fish
These articles blending stats and player input are awesome. Any plans on maybe interviewing a few umps, or does baseball not allow that?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they aren’t available to the media.

Comment From Prich
Thoughts on Sweet Tea?

Dave Cameron: Don’t like it.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to do some work. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.