FanGraphs Chat – 6/19/13

Dave Cameron: 15 minutes til the chat starts, so go ahead and get your questions in now.

Comment From JP
I’ve seen some Detroit sources saying that Detroit may need Castellanos to come up to boost that offense and get them into the playoffs. Are the Tigers actually going to call him up sooner rather than later?

Dave Cameron: I’m not sure Castellanos would actually provide an offensive boost. His contact rate in Triple-A is not very good, and he’s not a huge power guy. He might eventually be a good MLB hitter, but I think it’s unlikely that he’s one right now.

Comment From Crusty
Have the Jays climbed back into it? It seems taking 6 of 7 from the Rangers is sort of a statement.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’re at least in the wild card conversation again. They’ll have to keep playing well to dig out of their big hole, but Reyes coming back should help, and if Dickey gets healthy, this is still a team that could make a run.

Comment From lowercase jeff
in your opinion, which player of the last 10-15 years defines replacement level?

Dave Cameron: Delmon Young, Willie Bloomquist.

Comment From LarryA
Has there ever been a study that shows that starting pitchers pitch better in close games rather than in blowouts (i.e. pitching to the score). Or is that just a myth?

Dave Cameron: They pitch differently. In close games, walks go up, homers go down. Overall, there’s not much of a difference.

Comment From Dan Duquette
What can I do to meaningfully upgrade my roster without giving up Bundy or Gausman? What SP are obtainable and an upgrade over the horde of in-house mediocrity? Should I look to stack the bullpen instead? Given the projected EOY standings, an extra win or two is HUGE.

Dave Cameron: Matt Garza won’t cost a top prospect because of his health and impending FA status. Ricky Nolasco might be an okay band aid, and his salary will drive the price down.

Comment From Phil
Let’s say theorhetically the A’s new stadium gets approved and they move to San Jose. Would it be a wild idea to think they the dimensions of this new stadium could be similar to the ones at O.co? Yeah that stadium is not baseball friendly and there’s a lot of foul territory, but I feel like the “pitcher friendly” dimensions of that stadium plays a big part in the success of their pitching and they could use that to their advantage (again)

Dave Cameron: If winning was just about playing in a pitcher’s park, the Mariners and Padres would have been ruling baseball for the last decade.

Comment From Kris
How much better would the MLB Draft be if they could trade draft picks?

Dave Cameron: Not better.

Comment From Izzy
Matt Harvey is the __th best pitcher in baseball?

Dave Cameron: I’ll go with 9th.

Dave Cameron: Just completely off the top of my head.

Comment From Matt (Steinway)
So with the mostly successful debut of Wheeler and the all-star game approaching, the Mets front office (who all us fans just love) is taling abut investing in the team again because o the “young core”. Now correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the “core” consist entirely of these two pitchers and David Wright? Don’t we need at least one good young offensive player if we’re going to be serious about building around them? Do we have that kind of impact player in the system? And should the team legitimately be trying to expand major league payroll? Legitimately means “not for the purposes of getting fans to buy tickets again”.

Dave Cameron: Name the players that make up the A’s “young core”. If you’re smart and you know how to find undervalued talent, you can spend money and build a winner.

Comment From DangeRuss
How do you think Milone will fare today vs. Texas?

Dave Cameron: HR prone pitcher in HR friendly park in June. I’m going to say not well.

Comment From Will
Would you be shocked if the Cubs don’t trade Garza at the deadline, if he is still healthy?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Justin
A while ago you mentioned that the Jays will play better, but not quite good enough to contend. Is this basically what we’re seeing now? Can we really call them contenders? Seems that every AL team has pretty strong weaknesses.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they will make up enough ground to grab a playoff spot, but they’ve gotten themselves back in the conversation at least. It’s a big hole, but they have a lot of talent.

Comment From JT
Best speculative save add – Oliver Perez,Junichi Tazawa, Francisco Rodriquez?

Dave Cameron: Reminder that I’m not a fantasy guy, but I’ll note that Perez is highly likely to be traded to a contender who will use him as a lefty setup guy in a few weeks, so his season save total will likely be quite low.

Comment From Sam
Thoughts on Wheeler’s debut?

Dave Cameron: Good stuff, bad command. Basically, it’s Zack Wheeler.

Comment From Das Otter
Best 3 pitchers in the MLB? Go.

Dave Cameron: Kershaw, Verlander, Felix.

Comment From _David_
Proposal: The lineup is five hitters deep and each team can have three designated fielders. More or less interesting than current baseball?

Dave Cameron: Way, way less.

Comment From _David_
While it would be fun to consider a five infielder alignment with a bunch of groundball pitchers and two Olympic sprinters in the outfield, wouldn’t the infielders get in each other’s way? Shouldn’t some team pay one of its minor league affiliates to try this simply to study it, or would that screw too much with defensive development?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they’d get in each other’s way – you’d just basically be running a shift on every play, with the side shifted towards depending on the handedness of the batter.

Comment From Will
Can the Brewers be a good team next year? I’m really unsure what to make of that team.

Dave Cameron: They need about 15-20 new players. That’s a tall task.

Comment From Ryan
Any idea when the schedule for the Boston Saber Seminar will be available? I am wondering if other participants will be planning to attend the 4:05 game at Fenway with the Yankees in town.

Dave Cameron: Dan has mentioned that he believes that game is going to be moved to 8:05 since ESPN will likely pick it up for Sunday Night Baseball.

Comment From David
Given age and long term cost control, how many pitchers can you name that you’d rather have than Matt Harvey?

Dave Cameron: This is basically the kind of question the Trade Value series seeks to answer, and that list is coming in the next few weeks.

Comment From Nats Fan
Why do the Nats suck? I give up.

Dave Cameron: Their offense has been terrible. The bench has completely fallen apart, Harper got hurt, LaRoche regressed, and Espinosa tried to play through a broken wrist.

Comment From Colin
With Dom Brown and Teheran having big springs and subsequently breakout regular seasons, do you still believe there is nothing to be gleaned from spring training performance?

Dave Cameron: Google the phrase “confirmation bias”.

Comment From Houzer
Closer for the Mariners is ….. ?

Dave Cameron: Probably Yoervis Medina, who is a young Carlos Marmol.

Comment From Guest
How close do you think Taijuan Walker is to seeing time in Tacoma?

Dave Cameron: Probably a month away.

Comment From rusty
Ryan Howard has 3 yrs / $75m (plus $10m buyout) left on his deal. Ryan Zimmerman has 6 yrs / $98m (plus $2m buyout) left on his. If Zim continues to struggle at 3B, how do the deals compare in terms of badness?

Dave Cameron: Zimmerman is a useful player. Howard stinks.

Comment From Jeremy
Cole hasn’t struck out a lot of guys. Why not?

Dave Cameron: Secondary stuff isn’t very good, fastball is pretty straight.

Comment From David
In 2016, LAA will owe Pujols, Hamilton, Weaver, and Wilson a combined $95M (and Aybar another 8.5). That alone would make them the 15th highest payroll in MLB today. This is not even counting the inevitable monster extension Trout will have signed by then. Discuss!

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the Angels future doesn’t look so good.

Comment From Brent
Josh Hamilton took his season to a whole new low last night. 3 GIDP and 2 K’s. Is this guy done? You would think his approach would’ve changed by now.

Dave Cameron: He was terrible, but left-handed hitters had no chance last night. Will write about why this afternoon.

Comment From Mark
I’m old enough to remember the days of 10 man pitching staffs and platoon positions. Do you think the value of extra pitchers is greater than the value of a lefty/righter platoon in the outfield?

Dave Cameron: I think it depends on the run environment. At high R/G levels, you probably want the extra pitcher. Given current lower R/G levels, teams should be pivoting back to smaller pitching staffs. We will see how long these lower R/G levels need to be sustained before that happens.

Comment From Steve
Still given up on Justin Smoak?

Dave Cameron: He’s still not good, so yes.

Comment From JT
What are the chances Jesse Crain gets traded to a contender AND closes?

Dave Cameron: Slim. My guess is he ends up in Boston as a high leverage relief ace.

Comment From Nick
Speaking of getting Dickey healthy, is he helping the team by pitching injured and giving them something probably below league average right now, or would it be better to skip three or fours starts and see if he can come back resembling 2010-2012 Dickey?

Dave Cameron: Well, the question is more whether pitching through this is likely to keep him from getting healthy. If he’s exacerbating the problem, then this is detrimental. If he can pitch through it and will be healthy at the same point in the future anyway, then he’s helping htem.

Comment From fsh river north
percent chance wheeler pulls a harvey 2012?

Dave Cameron: 0.1%

Comment From Guest
Is the Nationals offense going to be the reason they miss the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: If they miss the playoffs, yes.

Comment From David
…you are presuming that the Mets front office is smart and knows how to find undervalued talent. There’s not an extensive history of that.

Dave Cameron: Sandy Alderson has a pretty good track record.

Comment From Jason
What is USS Mariner’s cut of all the King Felix merchandise?

Dave Cameron: None. We never trademarked the phrase, so we don’t own it. In retrospect, might not have been a terrible idea, but would have come across as a pretty douchey thing to do.

Comment From Steve
Should Phillies fans be rooting for Amaro to stand his ground and “retool” for 2014, or blow it up and start over? I don’t think I trust him in either scenario.

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that blowing it up is really possible. No one’s taking Howard’s contract.

Comment From zack
Who is more likely to make the hall of fame: Beltre or Beltran?

Dave Cameron: Beltran, because of his postseason heroics. Both should get in.

Comment From Guest
To piggy back on a recent question, what are the weaknesses of the AL East teams ahead of the Blue Jays that may let the Jays sneak into the post season?

Dave Cameron: The Yankees can’t hit, the Orioles can’t pitch, and the Rays have a bullpen problem.

Comment From Nick
Are you saying you’re not in favor of trading draft picks or you just don’t think it would make the draft “better”? Or you just don’t care?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it would actually help anything, nor would it make the draft better.

Comment From Guest
What kind of a package do you think the M’s could get for Iwakuma if they were to sell him high?

Dave Cameron: A pretty good one, but I wouldn’t trust Jack Zduriencik to make that trade.

Comment From Jacob
If the M’s fired Jack Z and offered you the job would you take it?

Dave Cameron: Sure, and then I’d immediately hire a more qualified assistant GM and take a permanent leave of absence, ceding my responsibilities to him.

Comment From SLK
Have you taken ESPN’s baseball rule quiz?

Dave Cameron: I did, and I only got 4 right. That thing was hard.

Comment From Brent
Whose the best defensive player in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Yadier Molina.

Comment From Nick
Monday Dan Szymborski said Carlos Gomez is the NL MVP right now. With Tulo out for a month, could this actually happen? Am I taking crazy pills?

Dave Cameron: No way voters pick a guy from a losing team.

Comment From Chris_FB
Most interesting division, AL or NL, from here to the rest of the season?

Dave Cameron: NL West. Any of the five teams could win it.

Comment From AstrosFan
What 5 teams will have the most playoff appearances over the next 10 years?

Dave Cameron: New York, Boston, Texas, St. Louis, Washington.

Comment From Some dude
Who wins in a 7 game series? A team of Brenden Ryans (good pitching and defense and terrible bats) or a team of Raul Ibanezs (lots of dingers but terrible everything else)?

Dave Cameron: Brendan Ryans. All those weak ground balls would turn into hits.

Comment From Wobatus
I’d posit that you are wrong about the Brewers: 14th in position player WAR, 14th in xFIP. Their pitching woes (near last in pitching WAR) is almost all homeritis. They never replaced Hart at 1b, who is coming back. Braun has played decently but hurt, and Ramirez was out. Weeks has sucked but better with Gennett in a platoon. They aren’t that far from contention (also not far from collapsing). The big shadow is Brau n suspension. But Braun, Segura, Gomez, Aoki, Lucroy, Ramirez, Hart is a decent core. They don’t need 15-20 guys.

Dave Cameron: Ramirez is an aging DH with a backloaded contract and knee problems. He should probably be traded in the next month. Hart is a FA at years end. Aoki is a role player on the downside of his career. They have Braun/Segura/Gomez/Gallardo and a lot of flotsam.

Comment From zack
Has Matt Cain payed sufficient homage to the xFIP gods?

Dave Cameron: He needs another few years of this to make up for his years of FIP beating.

Comment From 2ndHS
How would you rate Aramis Ramirez’s trade value? Vague sense of good/okay/bad is fine since it’s a bit of a subjective thing.

Dave Cameron: Between bad and okay. Knee problems + ballooning 2014 salary are problematic.

Comment From BX
If you were a contending team’s GM, how worried would you be about key players from the Biogenesis report getting suspensions soon?

Dave Cameron: Kinda worried.

Comment From Michael
Do Dodgers buy a closer?

Dave Cameron: Kenley Jansen is fine.

Comment From zack
What do you expect from Roy Oswalt this year?

Dave Cameron: Good pitching.

Comment From Alec
So you think Wilhelmson is out long term as the closer in Seattle?

Dave Cameron: Depends on if he can figure out where his fastball is going again. It appeared magically out of nowhere, and now it has disappeared just as fast.

Comment From Bruce
How does a SABR writer (you included) find out if a topic has already been written up before? Is there a massive database somewhere, or you just have to read and remember everything

Dave Cameron: There are so many people writing about baseball now that you can’t hope to be the only one writing about a certain topic. You just make sure you’re not actually stealing someone else’s ideas, link to other posts on the same topic, and give your own take.

Comment From Greg
The real Nate Schierholtz is what % of the player we’re seeing right now?

Dave Cameron: 90%.

Comment From zack
Giv]ven attrition rates should teams care less about service time when handling pitching prospects?

Dave Cameron: Yes, relative to hitters.

Comment From Greg
Any thoughts on Luis Valbuena? Is he a viable long-term starter?

Dave Cameron: Solid platoon guy.

Comment From Guest
Sounds like you think the Red Sox will cruise into the playoffs

Dave Cameron: They’re the best team in the division and they have a lead. Anything can happen, but they’re the favorites.

Comment From volcano insurance salesman
what’s your max effort words/minute capability? seems like your chats are blazing fast.

Dave Cameron: I type about 80-90 words per minute. The thing that takes the longest is picking the questions.

Comment From BassmanUW
One thing I think people don’t understand about the trading of draft picks in football or basketball compared to what that would be in baseball. Football and basketball have essentially no minor league system. Sure, basketball has the D-League, but future stars don’t play there. That’s for fringe level players who might turn into decent role players. The ability to trade prospects in baseball is already essentially equivalent to the trading of draft picks in the other sports.

Dave Cameron: Ding ding ding.

Comment From ben
Who is the worst defensive player in all of baseball?

Dave Cameron: Probably Adam Dunn. Or maybe David Ortiz, if he had to play the field.

Comment From Aaron
Regarding the question on platoons, staff sizes, and scoring environment: is there an argument to be made that the run environment has been lowered *because* there are 12- and 13-man pitching staffs? Does that make decisions on staff size and platoons a game theory thing? And if so, what’s the incentive to get back down to 10- or 11-man staffs?

Dave Cameron: Yes, the shift to larger pitching staffs is part of the reason for the decline in run scoring. Basically, the roster tradeoff question and the run environment pull against each other, and should theoretically end up in equilibrium.

Comment From Guest
Simmons has been hitting lead off for the Braves, despite his .285 OBP. thoughts?

Dave Cameron: They need a better leadoff guy.

Comment From Navalanche
Zips and Steamer both have Trout finishing his season with 8 WAR, whereas Zips has Cabrera finishing with 8.1 and steamer has him at 8. Very likely that they end up with a bigger gap than that, but holy iglesias can you imagine a second, amplified version of the 2012 mvp debate…and there’s no reason this stops at 2013 unless Machado steps up.

Dave Cameron: It would be kind of anticlimactic this year, because if they have basically the same season in terms of overall value, Cabrera will win easily again because his team made the playoffs, and our side won’t be nearly as loud in objecting because there won’t be any reason to.

Comment From Ted
Who would you want in your outfield over Daniel Nava right now? I can’t think of more than five or six guys…

Dave Cameron: Seriously? I could probably name 30.

Comment From Matt
Vis a vis playoffs, you don’t believe in the Jedstein revival?

Dave Cameron: That division is tough.

Comment From JC
Are people still sending you tweets about how “wrong” you were about Morse, I noticed a lot of that when Morse was on pace for 125 homers, a little less now that he’s on pace for 25

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’ve mostly stopped trolling me now.

Comment From Navalanche
When I saw Szymborski predict Gomez I was shocked, too. It’s a strange field but I’d actually have no problem with Waino getting it this year.

Dave Cameron: Molina would probably be the guy on the Cardinals to get votes.

Comment From someone
Aramids Ramirez to Dodgers (if they’re a bit higher in the standings come the trade deadline)?

Dave Cameron: I think he belongs in the AL. The Yankees make the most sense.

Comment From Sean T.
Some other writers have long claimed that Goldschmidt is nothing more than a platoon 1B. Do you think we’re beyond that point yet?

Dave Cameron: Way beyond.

Comment From JAL
In you opinion, knowing what he signed for and what he would have signed for to stay in NY, why did the Yankees not re-sign Martin? As a Yankee fan I am extremely bewildered (especially perplexed when you consider the contracts given to Ichiro, Youk and Big Vern). Thanks

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that was a bizarre decision. Especially since they basically gave Vernon Wells the same money that they wouldn’t give Martin.

Comment From person hscer
Speaking about his odds and not his merit, Beltre’s problem is he doesn’t have the “feel” of a Hall of Famer. His 2004 season was written off as a fluke after he hit .266 in five years with Seattle. He probably needs to keep up his Boston/Texas performance for a couple more years at least.

Dave Cameron: He’s got a pretty good at 3,000 hits because he started early and has been durable. So he might get in for the wrong reasons, but he’s deserving regardless.

Comment From Guest
More frequent D-Shep posts in the future?

Dave Cameron: As you can imagine, those images aren’t easy to make, so there will always be some limit on how many he can do. But, yes, the hope is that we get them on a fairly regular basis until some big media company figures out he’s a genius and steals him away from us.

Comment From morF
Kershaw for CY?

Dave Cameron: Or Harvey. Or Wainwright. Crazy good field in the NL this year.

Comment From Owen
Are Wheeler’s control issues something that should correct over time, at least somewhat? His stuff looked awesome yesterday, but he couldn’t always hit the strike zone when he wanted to.

Dave Cameron: Sometimes, these guys figure it out. Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw had command problems early, for instance. Sometimes, these guys don’t. Ubaldo Jimenez says hi.

Comment From Chicago Mark
What moves do you see the Rangers making at the trade deadline? Pitcher? Hitter? Giancarlo Stanton? Ha!

Dave Cameron: Hitter. Probably an outfielder.

Comment From JT
What are your thoughts on the Twins at the trade deadline? They are not a terrible as most originally thought they would be, do they hold onto their core or start selling? Morneau and Willingham are interesting conundrums…

Dave Cameron: Don’t think Morneau has any value, so no real conundrum there. They should move Willingham. Well, they should have moved him over the winter, really.

Comment From Dave Cameron
Thanks, that’ll be it for today! Sorry I couldn’t get to all your questions, which were as abundant as ever. Come back next week for some more chatting, same place, same time. Enjoy the LAD-NYY doubleheader on national TV!

Dave Cameron: Thanks for saving me the trouble.