FanGraphs Chat – 7/10/13

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so we’re chatting. The trade value series starts next Monday, so if you have questions about the list that isn’t “where does so and so rank”, fire away.

Comment From Ben
Do you think the Mets will wind up trading Bobby Parnell, and if so, what kind of return will they get?

Dave Cameron: My guess is that they won’t, as there are too many other more veterany rent-a-reliever types on the market that won’t command as high of a price.

Comment From zack
How far has Matt Kemp fallen on the trade value list?

Dave Cameron: He’s maybe the second toughest guy to peg, after his teammate, Yasiel Puig. Kemp, right now, isn’t on the list. That might change by publication, but it might not. It all depends on how worried one is about the shoulder.

Comment From my jays are red
thanks for the chat Dave! just want to know what you think about the all-star selections, if you care about them

Dave Cameron: I don’t, really. Jeff Locke made the team and Stephen Strasburg didn’t.

Comment From Guest
Will Mike Morse be a decent contributor for the 2nd half?

Dave Cameron: There’s nowhere for him to play in Seattle anymore, really. Smoak’s latest surge/tease, combined with Ibanez’s ridiculous power display and Morales’ normal better-than-Morse hitting leaves him as a part-time player. They should trade him to a team that wants a right-handed DH.

Comment From Yan
Where do you see Bud Norris going now that the Giants probably won’t make any moves?

Dave Cameron: He seems like the kind of guy the Indians might want.

Comment From Jake
Either the MLB has really good evidence against the Biogenesis-linked guys or else they are out of their minds to try to levy these suspensions, right?

Dave Cameron: We don’t really know what their investigation turned up. They might have a smoking gun.

Comment From Mike
What do you make of Jeremy Hefner? Or, to phrase it another way, why is Jeremy Hefner pretending he’s a very good pitcher?

Dave Cameron: The power of HR/FB fluctuations is strong.

Comment From mike
who do you think is the most likely landing spot for Garza? and what would the return be?

Dave Cameron: Gun to my head, I think he ends up in Texas, for some combination of lower level prospects.

Comment From Guest
How the hell can the Phillies be buyers?

Dave Cameron: The culture of looking at “games back” in the standings hasn’t changed, and the second wild card has lowered the bar to where even bad teams think they’re still in it.

Comment From B. Michael
I’ve always been unclear on the definition of “Top of the rotation starter.”
To me TOR would imply a solid #2 with flashes of a #1–sort of how Jeff described Garza (vs. 3-4 mid and 4-6 back). You seem to disagree. Is your definition closer to Top 15-30 SP?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see any reason to define a “#1 starter” as 30 best pitchers just because there are 30 teams. Why isn’t it okay to just acknowledge that the Astros don’t have a #1 starter? Neither do the Marlins.

Dave Cameron: To me, a #1 starter is a guy you want starting Game 1 of a playoff series. There are maybe 15 of those guys. Maybe.

Comment From Tom
Do you factor in contracts at all in the trade value series or do you just look at pure performance?

Dave Cameron: It’s the whole deal, contract included.

Comment From Benzedrine
I didn’t get a chance to see Carson’s Notgraphs post about you in ESPN: The Body Issue. How long was this post on the web? what was actualy posted?

Dave Cameron: It wasn’t edited. The big red text was the whole joke.

Comment From LarryA
Is Verlander moving into a new stage in like, similar to CC? Still pretty good, but a step lower than past greatness? OR has he just been unlucky

Dave Cameron: His defense sucks, so his ERA looks worse than it should. But he’s a pitcher, and pitchers decline, so, you shouldn’t expect MVP Verlander again.

Comment From Guest
Are we seeing flashes of the Mariners team from preseason?

Dave Cameron: The fact that the Mariners are still pushing spring training performance as their real selves is so freaking sad.

Comment From Scott
In the past few years teams have been verrry pro-active about locking up their young players, including buying out many arb years. I seem to recall an article (by you?) about how the Free Agent market has become veterans as stop gaps. How has these recent trends affected the trade value rankings, and/or the free agent market, and/or how teams go about rebuilding.

Are teams that traditionally build through Free agency (e.g. Yankees), significantly behind the 8-ball?

Dave Cameron: The trade value series has definitely shifted towards higher priced stars, as the value of a well priced elite player has climbed since it is now harder to buy those on the market. The Yankees haven’t been hurt so much by this as they have been by the fact that the players they bought with their extra revenues have been hurt and/or bad.

Comment From brian
If you ran the Dodgers and you could trade Matt Kemp and his entire contract but only get back non-prospect(s) would you do it?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Balk
If Biogenesis suspensions are handed down the second half, is it safe to assume that the appeals process would delay them until the beginning of next season?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think there are any safe assumptions when we’re dealing with new ground that hasn’t been broken yet.

Comment From Scott
I can’t recall if you included the players with the least (or negative) trade value. With the spate of contracts given out over the last few years, I’d love to see an expanded list of the worst values in baseball….bottom 10-15 maybe?

Dave Cameron: I usually do bottom 5. We’ll see how far I stretch it this year.

Comment From Bruce
Is a move from minor league catcher to MLB bullpen catcher a promotion in terms of salary? how do they choose those guys?

Dave Cameron: Bullpen catcher is a coaching position, not a playing position, so it isn’t governed by the same salary scale. I have no idea what a bullpen catcher makes, but it’s probably not six figures.

Comment From Electric
Of all the potential buyers out there, who is the most aggressive over the course of the next month? why?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess Pittsburgh. They are in prime position to make a real run at both the wild card and a division title, and it would mean the most to them.

Comment From Guest
So you’re on the Brad Miller wagon?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Lefty hitting SS with contact skills and the ability to hit line drives. Not a lot of those out there.

Comment From James
If the All-Star Game was not about fan entertainment, but just about the NL v. AL for home-field advantage, who would be your starting ten (assuming a DH) for each side?

Dave Cameron: I did a post on that subject last year, and will probably do so again, maybe on Friday.

Comment From Bam
You see Shelby Miller be skipped sometimes as we get closer towards the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: It’s the plan the Nats should have used with Strasburg.

Comment From Truth
Do you follow an actual method for the trade value series? ex: Player G is projected to produce X amount of WAR, is scheduled/projected to make Y amount of dollars, so the surplus value is expected to be Z, therefore determining trade value?

Dave Cameron: It’s not a set formula, no.

Comment From Guest
if you were the rockies, would you trade cargo for puig?

Dave Cameron: Find out next week when both rate on the trade value list.

Comment From LarryA
Who is more likely to make the HOF: Ortiz or Beltran?

Dave Cameron: Beltran. The DH penalty is very strong for voters, and Ortiz probably isn’t a HOFer anyway.

Comment From mike c
Now that Garza appears to be off the table tradewise, who are top 3 pitchers available and who could they go to. Thanks

Dave Cameron: Garza is not off the table. After him, you’re looking at guys like Bud Norris and a collection of #5 starters.

Comment From Guest
Phil Hughes trade value? Any chance they could get a top 100 guy?

Dave Cameron: For a rental back-end starter having a bad year? No.

Comment From Maxamuz
Why do you have no love for Lucas Duda? It seems Eno and I are the only ones with love for the Dudddda!

Dave Cameron: Bat only players with moderate power aren’t that good.

Comment From Jordy
What are your thoughts on Justin Smoak? You gave up on him like a year ago, but then again, who didn’t (besides the Mariners I suppose). Is this real? Seems like BABIP luck finally turned after consistently being well below average.

Dave Cameron: When you have a very slow fly ball hitter who hits a ton of infield flies, it’s not all bad luck. Smoak’s true talent BABIP is probably in the .270 to .280 range, not anywhere near the .340 he’s posting right now.

Dave Cameron: (slight pause)

Dave Cameron: Okay, back to chatting.

Comment From Samuel
Is there any chance we can get FanGraphs support for pitching statistics sorted by who’s catching? That would be amazing.

Dave Cameron: Those stats are generally not that helpful due to sample size problems.

Comment From Yao
Who’s going to win the AL West?

Dave Cameron: Texas

Comment From Will
What percent of the trade value list consists of players who have never been on it before?

Dave Cameron: Good question. I don’t know off hand, but I’ll maybe post some demographic information after the whole thing is revealed.

Comment From Razor
Are career splits by month ever useful- or almost positively just noise?

Dave Cameron: Almost positively noise.

Comment From Nick
In your post on USSM about Miller you said “Miller could still have a serious flaw that we just haven’t seen yet. Dustin Ackley is a constant reminder of that.” What do you think Ackley’s serious flaw is (decision making, contact rates, rickets)? Can he be fixed?

Dave Cameron: He has stopped covering the plate, so he’s now very vulnerable to pitches on the outer half.

Comment From Scott
Out of Morales 2/20, Morse 1/10, and Ibanez 1/10, which would be the worse FA deal for the Mariners?

Dave Cameron: Giving Ibanez $10 million would be beyond stupid.

Comment From Sad Elephant
Are teams that outperform their WAR, like the A’s, just lucky or do think there is a factor that WAR is overlooking?

Dave Cameron: WAR isn’t perfect, so I wouldn’t say that any team doing better or worse than WAR suggests has been lucky. However, most of the differences can be chalked up to sequencing, and most of the timing of events is random.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Has Giancarlo Stantons place fallen on the list with his poor play/injury stint?

Dave Cameron: A little, yes. It’s not just the injury either, as he now has one less year of team control than he did the last time we did the list.

Comment From Tom
If you were the Padres would you trade for Cliff Lee? They aren’t that far out of it and it’s like they couldn’t afford him.

Dave Cameron: The Padres are terrible.

Comment From Jeff
I don’t quite get why SABR-oriented people seem to hate the All Star Game. Yes, I know the selection process is terrible and the game doesn’t matter in any meaningful way, but if I told you that Miguel Cabrera was up against Matt Harvey, most of us would say that is a pretty fun match up to watch. Is it possible that SABR folks are just “anti-nostalgia” or something (which the All Star Game tends to be dripping in).

Dave Cameron: I don’t think “SABR” people hate the ASG. I think statistically inclined folks tend to not care much about exhibitions in general.

Comment From Chicago Mark
If you were the Cubs would you trade or sign Garza?

Dave Cameron: Trade, easy.

Comment From AtTheWall
What are the chances that Peavy gets moved if he has a healthy rehab start or two given his contract? Any suitors?

Dave Cameron: He’s probably an August trade guy.

Comment From Caveman Jones
Assuming Jacoby Ellsbury is healthy in two weeks, should the Red Sox trade him despite being in serious playoff contention?

Dave Cameron: Of course not.

Comment From Jon
What can the Jays get for Josh Johnson?

Dave Cameron: Probably a little less than the Cubs get for Garza, though I don’t think they’ll trade him unless they fall apart again.

Comment From Curious George Costanza
What’s the puppy up to?

Dave Cameron: Sleeping at the moment. She goes in about one hour bursts, so I got her up at 10:30 and let her wear herself out by 11:30 so I could do this chat without having her interrupt it.

Comment From Ed
Can Raul Ibanez bring any value in a trade or is his age and defensive ineptitude too much to overcome?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think there’s any real strong market for a 41-year-old DH. The offers the Mariners will get won’t outweigh the front office’s desire to keep selling dingers.

Comment From Ted
Is the idea of putting Machado in the Trout and Harper category a little overblown?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s not at that level.

Comment From Izzy
I asked Jeff this yesterday. Steamer/ZIPS seem to say Wright is a 5.0-5.5 WAR player. He’s obviously outperformed that the last 1.5 seasons. I assume the projection systems still weight his down years a bit and likely don’t consider his 05-08 years. Is Wright better than the projection systems indicate in your opinion? What WAR value would you put his true talent level at?

Dave Cameron: +5 or so sounds right to me. You put less weight on past seasons, but you don’t want to ignore them.

Comment From steve mcqueen
Mac or PC? Sullivan answered PC.

Dave Cameron: Macbook Air. Big fan.

Comment From Jersey Devil
Do the Yankees currently have the worst offense for a > .500 team?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From zack
Did Shelby Miller make the trade value list?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Guest
Do the Tigers make any big moves?

Dave Cameron: My guess is no. I could see them picking up a couple of relievers in the Francisco Rodriguez/Oliver Perez mold.

Comment From Matt
What would Carson’s trade value list look like?

Dave Cameron: It would just be 50 pictures of Corey Kluber.

Comment From Adam
Does whole deal take into PED linkage and possible suspensions? I would assume that real life GMs would be more leary of such with the way ARod has been so fragile the past several seasons.

Dave Cameron: Yep, that stuff hurst a player’s trade value, so it affects their placement on the list.

Comment From Matt
Another M’s question: You’re big on thinking past the whole buyer-seller binary and advocating for good trades instead (the Rays make these moves like, every year). With that in mind, do you think the Mariners should actively shop Kendrys Morales?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the offer. I wouldn’t hate making him a qualifying offer or re-signing him for something like 2/20 or 3/27, but if a team wants to pay a real price to get him, I’d take the prospects and run.

Comment From Jon Trollolosi
RE: Trade Value Series. So we have Puig 1, Harper and Trout are 2/3 in some order, Machado is 4, but who is 5? That is the question…..tough one.

Dave Cameron: Puig is not going to be #1.

Comment From Joe
What’s up with Iwakuma? His stats indicated regression when he was doing well but not to this extent.

Dave Cameron: He’s homer prone. HRs fluctuate.

Comment From _David_
Churchill is clamoring for Stefen Romero. What about average pcl numbers am I missing?

Dave Cameron: You’re not missing anything.

Comment From bdhudson
Read an article about implementing a “pitching change” similar to the Rockie’s 75 pitch limit from last year. Essentially a 3-3-3 sort of deal for each game so that you get your best pitchers in each series and your bullpen gets regular work while nobody gets overworked. What is your opinion about that school of thought?

Dave Cameron: I’m in favor of a more radical pitching staff strategy, but that wouldn’t be the one I’d go for.

Comment From zack
I know fangraphs united their replacement level with Baseball Reference, but did you do the same with Baseball Prospectus and WARP?

Dave Cameron: No, BP did not adjust their replacement level.

Comment From Neil
If you’re a team who is a top flight arm away from serious October success, would you be willing to take Ryan Howard’s contract to get Cliff Lee? Assume there is essentially no prospect cost.

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Bruce
How do you evaluate a guy like Cano in your series? Today he has immense value, but next year, not so much

Dave Cameron: Expiring contracts don’t make the list, basically.

Comment From MrGJG
Would you rate Homer Bailey, Mike Minor top 20SP?

Dave Cameron: Bailey yes/maybe, Minor no.

Comment From Truth
How do you become eligible for the draft? What is stopping someone like myself (non-good player) from entering the draft and having a deal with my favorite team for them to take me in round 10 and sign for $1, freeing up more bonus money for actual prospects?

Dave Cameron: Why would the team do that? They could just draft an actual player and achieve the same goal.

Comment From Jake
Friend of a friend is a bullpen catcher. He makes about 80k plus solid meal money. It seems like a great gig.

Dave Cameron: Who pays for his eventual hip replacement?

Comment From Richie
Why do we care whether a SS bats lefty or righty?

Dave Cameron: 3B/SS/2B have to throw right-handed because of the way the diamond is aligned, so there are few LH hitters at those positions. If you can get LH infielders, then you can stack your line-up against RHPs with big platoon splits or you can pay less for cheaper RH power rather than paying market price for expensive LH power.

Comment From Guest
Was Ibanez snubbed pretty solid numbers?

Dave Cameron: Can I interest you in a promising new metric called on base percentage?

Comment From Brendan Ryan
Justin Smoak has a better wRC+ (125) in 2013 than Prince Fielder (121). Mariners fans should be excited about this, right?

Dave Cameron: Not really. Tigers fans should be annoyed though.

Comment From ChopChop!
Is Alex Rios a top 10 OF the rest of the way?

Dave Cameron: Yes, if we’re talking top 10 AAA OFs.

Comment From Rob
Will the trade value list include guys with no-trade clauses?

Dave Cameron: Yes. Those can be bought out.

Comment From Marcus A.
Why do teams always wait until July to start making trades? It was obvious for a while that Baltimore needed back end rotation help, for example, why the delay?

Dave Cameron: You can’t buy if no one is selling. The draft takes a lot of focus for front offices up through early June, so teams give themselves two months to let things play out and evaluate after that.

Comment From Guest
I think it’s a lock Ortiz makes the HOF. The Boston media bump, plus the World Series heroics are going to be huge. Also add in the fact of being a slugger who is pretty clean in this era.

Dave Cameron: Wasn’t Ortiz already tied to PEDs once?

Comment From bdhudson
ESPN Seattle seems to be toying with the idea of Ellsbury as a Mariner. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I think it’s a good possibility.

Comment From Steve
Puig – perennial All-Star, flash in the pan, somewhere in between?

Dave Cameron: In between, closer to the former.

Comment From Ignatius
If Pujols retired today would he be a hall or famer?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, no quesiton.

Comment From Ian
What is a primary cause of platoon splits for pitchers. Is is side of the mound they stand on? Release point? For example as a righty stands closer to the first base side of the mound does their avg vs. lefties decrease or vice versa?

Dave Cameron: Release point and pitch mix, probably in that order. Pitches that move horizontally have big platoon splits, while pitches that move up and down do not.

Comment From A name
Also, re: A’s: if you intentionally put a staff of flyball pitchers in front of elite outfield defense, they should naturally outperform their FIP, right?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From zack
Does the trade list include prospects or only players that have appeaed in the majors?

Dave Cameron: Includes everyone.

Comment From Jordy
Does Granderson get a QO from NYY this winter?

Dave Cameron: No chance.

Comment From Ryan
What do you mean by “sequencing”? Game schedule?

Dave Cameron: Sequencing is the order of events in which they occur. Single, single, HR gets you three runs. HR, single, single might only get you one.

Dave Cameron: And then there’s the sequencing of the runs themselves. If you score 10-0-10-0-10-0 all year long, you’ll finish around .500. If you score 5-5-5-5-5-5-5 you’ll do much better.

Comment From Andrew
How impressive does a prospect have to be to rank on the trade value series? Harper/Trout level?

Dave Cameron: Profar, Bogaerts, and Buxton make this year’s list.

Comment From Mark
Gut feel, who do the Pirates go after at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Rios/Peavy.

Comment From Redbeard
Do you think SABR stats undervalue the ability for pitchers to generate soft contact by placing so much wieght on K rate BB rate and too much stock in BABIP?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From Guest
Do you actually like having the puppy yet?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, she’s fun, but also a lot of work.

Comment From Moose
woud the Rangers entertain AJax for Profar?

Dave Cameron: Of course, as long as Miguel Cabrera was the throw-in.

Comment From Marcus A.
Whose WAR this year is the furthest away from what you perceive their value to be?

Dave Cameron: My answer is almost always Yadier Molina. I think we’re probably undervaluing him by a lot, due to the lack of rewards for his defense in WAR.

Comment From Brian
Is the trade value list completed?

Dave Cameron: I have the names, haven’t ordered them yet.

Comment From Jack
What exactly has Harper done to put him a whole level above Machado? MaMa can play short, Harper can’t stay healthy

Dave Cameron: Let me guess, you’re an Orioles fan?

Comment From filihok
What is the new replacement level? I’ve heard all about the new agreed upon replacement level, but I’ve never seen what it is

Dave Cameron: It’s 1000 WAR per 2,430 games played, or a .294 winning percentage based on a 162 game schedule.

Comment From Tim
Which prospect would you rather have (same age, same level)? A: 150 wRC+, 25% K%, 10% BB%, avg corner OF. B: 110 wRC+, 15% K%, 5% BB%, good SS.

Dave Cameron: B, easy.

Comment From Mike
I thought the main reason that infielders aren’t usually LH was because any lefty with a good enough arm to play SS or 3B is turned into a pitcher

Dave Cameron: No, that’s not it. Left-handed throwers would have to spin to throw to first base.

Comment From Joey Chestnut
Is there another major sport where players who are overweight, can’t run, etc. can succeed?

Dave Cameron: I would like to introduce you to the NFL.

Comment From coack
Geoff Baker seems to think there is discussion in Seattle of signing Morales to a $15 million per year contact – he crazy or Jack Z crazy?

Dave Cameron: Why are you reading Geoff Baker?

Comment From Bodhizefa
Brad Miller longterm upside? ..290./.350/.450 with good base running?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably go under on the SLG, but yeah, that’s about right.

Comment From Shannon
As a little bit of an add-on to the Pujols question- is there any chance that another 5 years or so of near replacement level performance actually hurts his HOF candidacy? He’ll get the counting stats no matter what, but do you think it would be possible for him to tarnish his legacy so much that he doesn’t get in?

Dave Cameron: Anyone who doesn’t vote for Pujols for the HOF should have their voting privileges revoked.

Comment From Josh
Beltran to DH/4th OF next year for the Mariners? Any shot or would you avoid it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, because what that team needs is another DH.

Comment From Guest
Is there a reason you picked 1000 WAR over 2430 games instead of just making it a .300 winning percentage (since .294 is so close)? Or is just picking one round number over a different one/

Dave Cameron: It’s easier to have a set number of WAR per games played. They’re basically the same anyway.

Comment From Guest
I’m new to Sabermetrics but did the 2001 Mariners just have a crazy lucky year or were they legit in your eyes?

Dave Cameron: Both.

Comment From Matt
Now that we’ve seen Nick Franklin play, do you have any updated thoughts on the potential Justin Upton acquisition (Franklin, Walker, Furbush, & Pryor) that never happened? Seems like the M’s might have lucked out?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that would have been awful. Jack Z’s Plan A was terrible, his plan B was terrible, and his Plan C was terrible. Basically, his off-season was a series of disasters, and he lucked into the least bad of the three.

Comment From James
In regards to Jack Z, what was his Plan B?

Dave Cameron: The Upton trade was Plan B. Hamilton was Plan A.

Dave Cameron: Alright, time to go let the puppy out again. Thanks for chatting everyone.