FanGraphs Chat – 7/17/13

Dave Cameron: It’s Trade Value week — and also, I guess there was an All-Star Game last night — so I’d imagine we’ll have a lot of questions about the list so far, and what’s still to come over the next few days. We’re also getting closer to the trade deadline, so we can deal with who is likely going where by the end of July as well.

Dave Cameron: Chat is starting shortly. Trying to figure out what to do with the puppy. Right now, she’s having fun with the world’s largest zucchini, but I’m pretty sure that won’t last long.

Comment From Guest
Should the Rockies buy, sell, or hold?

Dave Cameron: I’d say hold. With Tulo back, a run at the division isn’t totally out of the realm of possibility, but they’re not quite at a spot where they should go for broke either.

Comment From ryan
Is there a better defender in the league at any position than Machado?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably a lot of them. He’s good enough to play short, but he’s not Andrelton Simmons or Jose Iglesias or Didi Gregorius.

Comment From Izzy
What is the chance that David Wright (49.2 WAR) ends his career with more WAR than Derek Jeter (74.6 WAR)?

Dave Cameron: Not very good. +25 WAR over the rest of his career seems like a pretty high bar.

Comment From bdhudson
Has Crain’s injury effectively killed his trade value?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. He went on the DL for a few weeks last year and was fine.

Comment From A hopeful fan
Do you see Joc Pederson moving at the trade deadline? Which teams might match up with the Dodgers in such a trade?

Dave Cameron: He obviously doesn’t have a spot to play in LA, so he’ll probably be traded at some point, but I don’t really see anyone available that is worth giving him up for. Hold onto him, use him as a chip this winter.

Comment From Baron Von Waffles
Just hypothetical, what type of package would it take to get both Ferandez and Stanton?

Dave Cameron: No one has that kind of talent to give up.

Comment From Shark Mapiro
Will the Indians regret not selling high on Asdrubal and Chris Perez last offseason?

Dave Cameron: Not if they make a run at a playoff spot.

Comment From Ben
You mentioned last week that Bogaerts and another prospect were on the trade value list. I don’t think the other was Taveras. If that’s not true, don’t bother answering. If it is true, why do you see Bogaerts as that much more valuable than Taveras?

Dave Cameron: Bogaerts is a shortstop who might be able to stick there, while Taveras is an outfielder and probably not good enough defensively to handle center. Bogaerts has a more advanced approach at the plate. Bogaerts hasn’t spent most of the season on the DL.

Comment From zack
The phillies are going to hang on to Cliff Lee aren’t they?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think so.

Comment From Jeff
Other sites (mlbtraderumors) have contained posts suggesting that the Greinke-Segura et al. deal is a good place to set the framework for a Garza deal. Is Garza really valued similarly to Greinke last year? Is it really going to take a Top 30-60ish prospect to land Garza? Should it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s not that good, and won’t cost that much. Teams should also take note of just how bad that trade was for Anaheim.

Comment From Josh Johnson
I know, I know, I’ve been horrible. So what can Toronto get back for me?

Dave Cameron: Probably still a pretty good prospect. You’re still Josh Johnson.

Comment From Chris
If a stadium were built with the outfield fences 1000 feet from home plate, would that increase or decrease offense? Lots of doubles would become homers, but lots of homers would become fly outs. How deep would the outfielders play?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that “lots” of homers would become outs. It seems to me that a lot of homers would land behind an outfielder before they had time to get under it. There aren’t that many high arcing fly balls that just barely clear the wall with an OF waiting a few feet away, are there?

Dave Cameron: And offense would go up, I think. A ton of doubles would turn into triples.

Comment From Jay29
What do you think the Yankees can do to upgrade at 1B?

Dave Cameron: Make a trade.

Comment From bdhudson
I enjoyed your apology to Taijuan Walker after you insulted his hair

Dave Cameron: His hair is atrocious.

Comment From Justin
Which player/team combination that is currently being seriously discussed as a potential deadline deal do you think would be the worst?

Dave Cameron: The Royals buying anyone. They need to sell, and they need to admit it to themselves sooner than later.

Comment From GSon
Puppy Uppy-date?

Dave Cameron: Super active, still hasn’t learned how to enjoy awake time without human interaction, which makes working from home difficult. But she’s got a great attitude, and of course, she’s adorable.

Comment From Ryan
Who would you rather sign to an extension– Matt Garza or Travis Wood?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the prices of course, but pretty sure my choice would be neither.

Comment From Marcus A.
A question I’m sure you’ll get a lot: Are you ordering how YOU value them or how they ARE valued by GMs? Seems like Perez is undervalued by GMs so would be lower than he is on your list, but guys like Beltre probably provide less value than guys off the list but are valued higher by GMs

Dave Cameron: This is value according to the market, not according to me.

Dave Cameron: Of course, it is my interpretation of market value, but my attempt is to make the list reflect actual trade value.

Comment From Little Big League
Do you think Shark has reached his ceiling? Per your trade value thoughts, do you think he can sustain this level of performance for, perhaps, the length of team control?

Dave Cameron: His results will get better, so if you consider that performance, then no, he’s not at his ceiling.

Comment From Scott
Hi Dave, what was your reasoning behind including Verlander? He can definitely average 4 WAR per year over the next six years of his contract, but even then his contract makes him worth less than the market rate for wins (assuming 5/mil/win).

Dave Cameron: Teams are willing to take long term hits for short term boosts. And remember, Verlander didn’t sign that contract as a free agent. He would have gotten a lot more had other teams been able to bid.

Comment From person
How do you reconcile the distinction between theoretical trade value of guys who aren’t going anywhere vs. guys who are actually likely to be traded? I mean it’s one thing to say that Mike Trout has the most trade value in MLB, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where he’d even be for sale. Matt Garza, on the other hand, has a very real trade value because he’s actively being shopped.

Dave Cameron: That’s more about the probability of a trade than the value of an asset. Is the diamond you can buy at the mall more valuable than the Hope Diamond because the Hope Diamond isn’t for sale?

Comment From Zach
Dave, I know you’ve been generally against the idea of the M’s moving Iwakuma, and I’ve generally agreed. That said, he’s also the team’s best trade asset (that they’d actually move), and if the team could bring back a high-quality OF prospect, or young MLBer, isn’t that a move they should consider?

Dave Cameron: Should, probably. But they won’t. They want to try to win as soon as possible, which is why I’m worried that they might end up as next year’s Kansas City.

Comment From Rob
Which of the Brewers’ relievers would help a contender most?

Dave Cameron: Probably Henderson.

Comment From JR
Brad Miller won a glowing endorsement from you, but on Franklin the word’s been mum. Is Franklin for real?

Dave Cameron: I’m less sold on him. Guys with little frames who need to hit for power are a bit scary.

Comment From Little Big League
Is there a rational reason why GMs value corner guys who hit homers over guys who make the same contributions in different ways (doubles hitters, some speed)

Dave Cameron: Not really. It’s basically the lasting effects of RBIs as a measure of player productiviity.

Comment From Rags
TAKE PICTURES OF PUPPY AND POST THEM WE LIKE PUPPIES NOT EVERTHING HAS TO BE BASEBALL PUPPIES

Dave Cameron: There has been some talk about making the puppy a recurring NotGraphs feature…

Comment From Kevin
To what extent did Marc Hulet’s updated prospect rankings influence your Trade Value series for Bogaerts and Buxton?

Dave Cameron: I made the list before I ever saw his Top 50.

Comment From cj
any chance you’ll do a “least trade value/largest albatross” list this year? even if its just top 10 or so?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From The other Kyle
Dave, a chatter yesterday came up with a Smyly/Garcia for Lincecum trade. Please tell me Dombrowski wouldn’t ever consider this (and I’m not even an Avasail )

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that would get laughed out of the room in Detroit.

Comment From Ryan
Thoughts on the NL Central in the second half? The Cards are obviously in a good position, but the Reds should be getting healthier, and I know you think the Pirates are stronger than in past years.

Dave Cameron: It should be a fun race. I’ll take STL to win it.

Comment From Guest
If Jose Iglesias is such a good defensive SS… WHY DO THE SOX INSIST ON PLAYING STEPHEN DREW THERE INSTEAD? Baffles the mind.

Dave Cameron: It’s a lot easier to tell a rookie that he’s going to play all over than to tell a veteran.

Comment From Steve
I know the trade value series is about current market conditions, but would you trade Jason Heyward for Jean Segura (who is one stop ahead)?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what my team looked like, but I’d definitely consider it.

Comment From Dan
1 – What should the Cubs do with Samardzija and 2 – what will the Cubs do with Samardzija

Dave Cameron: Sign him to an extension. Ditto.

Comment From SMV
Is the Dustin Ackley to CF move smart, either as a matter of Dustin Ackley’s development or in terms of the Mariners’ progress?

Dave Cameron: It’s not so much a move as it is an experiment. With Franklin playing well, they had to give Ackley a new spot if they wanted to get him any playing time in Seattle in the second half. My guess is that they trade him to someone who moves him back to second base.

Comment From Philip Christy
How do you see the AL West shaping up in the second half? Do the A’s have what it takes, do the Angels go on a tear?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Anaheim can make up this gap. It’s Texas and Oakland to the wire, with Texas coming out just ahead.

Comment From Rick
Which team do you like most in a one-game wildcard matchup? Is that something where Dusty Baker’s penchant for small ball could actually work for the Reds?

Dave Cameron: Why would small ball help them win a one game match-up?

Comment From Tom
How do I explain to my friends that “clutch” doesn’t exist?

Dave Cameron: Clutch does exist; it’s players who can repeatedly perform better in clutch situations that don’t exist. Easiest way to explain it is this: everyone in MLB has already been selected for having the intestinal fortitude necessary to succeed under pressure. All the non-clutch players got weeded out long ago.

Comment From Baron Von Waffles
Would a player such as Miguel Caberra or Raul Ibanez who does not get any value from the defensive side of the ball and even hurts himself see an increase in his WAR if he was a fulltime DH?

Dave Cameron: Ibanez yes, Cabrera no.

Comment From Eric
How could Kyle Seager be an “under-powered corner” with 15 HRs at the all star break in his second full season?

Dave Cameron: Because players aren’t judged on their most recent half seasons?

Comment From bdhudson
Convince me that trading Chris Davis was a good thing for the Rangers.

Dave Cameron: Koji Uehara was an excellent reliever, and he helped them get to the World Series. This is the risk you take with trading away prospects. Sometimes, they do this. Most times, they don’t.

Comment From Colin P
I understand your reasons for knocking Votto off the trade value list this year, but disagree with him being off it entirely. Even with reduced power his projections for the year are between 5-6 WAR, and his on base skills are going to age well.

Dave Cameron: Not making the top 50 is not the same as me saying they don’t have value.

Comment From Jay29
What do you think of switching the 40-man active roster period to April (and shifting minor league seasons a little later)? It would allow teams more time to figure out who they want for the season, and people wouldn’t have to whine about pennants being decided by the 7th hitter off the bench or the 8th man out of the bullpen.

Dave Cameron: I made this exact suggestion last year.

Comment From Braves Fan
I like this 1000 foot fence idea. Inside the park HRs and triples are much more exciting than current ‘DINGERZ’. Also Mike Trout will then easily pass Cabs for WAR so we all win

Dave Cameron: You’d have a ton of unintended consequences. Slow plodding outfielders would go away, and speed would become of utmost importance in the OF. Pitchers would start pitching lower in the zone in order to maximize GB%, which would likely lead to fewer strikeouts and more walks.

Comment From Bo
How close to “optimal” would you guess most teams are when it comes to defensive shifts?

Dave Cameron: Not very close.

Comment From MarinerDan
Has your view of Justin Smoak — that he was done — changed with his last few months?

Dave Cameron: I never said he was done. I noted that he could probably develop into an average player in his prime, but that there just wasn’t any real upside there, and the team should look for better options. He’s still not even an average player, so no, I haven’t changed my opinion.

Comment From zack
Jose Fernandez coming up on the trade value list?

Dave Cameron: Yeah.

Comment From gouis
Yeah that puppy won’t enjoy awake time by itself for 2 years.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for the encouragement.

Comment From zack
Fact or Fiction: Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet?

Dave Cameron: Facrt.

Dave Cameron: Fact, even.

Comment From Philip Christy
I thought the M’s were loaded with prospects. Don’t they have a real chance of winning in the next 2-3 years?

Dave Cameron: They have a few pitching prospects on the way, but the offensive cupboard is now barren after promoting Miller/Franklin/Zunino. They’re not going to rate that highly in farm system ranks next year, because it’s basically Taijuan Walker, some pitchers with real question marks, and a huge dropoff.

Comment From Chris Bosio
Better ROS Franklin or Miller?

Dave Cameron: I prefer Miller.

Comment From Preston
Is it really a foregone conclusion that the Marlins trade Stanton, they have some good young pitchers, and one elite hitter. If LoMo and Stanton have reasonable health next year and they get some production out of their pretty good farm system is it insane to think they’re competitive in 2015?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’re not close to being good.

Comment From B0B
What % chance does Perkins have of being shipped out of Minnesota?

Dave Cameron: Wild guess: 20%.

Comment From Scott
In your mind do the Mariners need to get what they can for Saunders, Harang, Ibanez, Morales and Morse, and continue to build through youth, at the expense of the team currently being good?

Dave Cameron: The team isn’t currently good.

Comment From Jody
The Mariners aren’t going anywhere this year, but are actually playing enjoyable baseball as of late (Granted they this level of play will taper off). Anyone that is up for a trade (Perez/Ibanez/Ryan/Morse) will probably not give the team much in return. What do you think about the team just holding on with what they got to hopefully be somewhat entertaining throughout the rest of the season.

Dave Cameron: I think this is exactly what they will do (well, they’ll trade Perez, Ryan, and Saunders), but it’s dumb. The idea that teams don’t get anything back in minor trades is just wrong. Chris Davis was traded for Koji Uehara. Wilson Ramos was traded for Matt Capps. That most prospects fail doesn’t make acquiring prospects useless.

Comment From atoms
Ethier + $$$ for Ackley, win/win?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t trade Ackley for Ethier even if the Dodgers paid his entire salary.

Comment From Anony-mouse
When ESPN shows their “estimated distance” on home runs with no interference from the seats, is that an example of HitF/X or something else?

Dave Cameron: That’s data based from their Home Run Tracker, not HITF/x.

Comment From Prich
You said you were worried the ’14 Ms would be the ’13 Royals… Are there no ‘big’ moves they could make w/out gutting the future?

Dave Cameron: That’s how you make a big move, generally.

Comment From Nik
Allen Craig is leading the league hitting with RISP two years is a row. Is this just a total coincidence?

Dave Cameron: Well, no, because hitting with RISP is a function of being a good hitter, and Allen Craig is a good hitter. But there’s no reason to think that this is a skill unique to Craig.

Comment From Tom
What would Miguel Cabrera’s WAR be if he played league average defense at 3B?

Dave Cameron: He’s -10 in fielding right now, so add a win.

Comment From jordan
What kind of deal could Ellsbury be looking at this winter?

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess 6/90, and it keeps going up as he stays healthy and keeps hitting.

Comment From gouis
So fewer strike outs, less ‘nonathletic’ players, higher scoring, triples and ITP homers. Sign me up

Dave Cameron: You’d get tired of watching a hitter chase a ball rolling forever pretty fast.

Dave Cameron: and by hitter, I mean outfielder.

Comment From Dan
How much are the Royals going to regret 1.5 years of Shields for 6+ years of Shields?

Dave Cameron: You mean Myers, and it depends on if/when they trade Shields. It’s not impossible to think that they’ll get another highly valuable player back if they trade him this winter — they should trade him now, actually — and that player might end up being better than Myers in the long run. It’s not the end of the world if they correct their mistake. If they just let him leave, or give him an ill-advised extension, then it could be awful.

Comment From Kale
If your Jack Z. Who do you try to keep/trade out of the 3 vets in Morse, Ibanez, and Morales? And if you keep any of them, do you offer an extension in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: Keep Morales, try to re-sign him for two years.

Comment From Reeves
If the season ended today, who do you think would take home NL MVP? Matt Carpenter has the highest WAR of anyone on an NL team currently in a playoff position, but I’d bet on Goldschmidt

Dave Cameron: I think Yadier Molina would win it, and that’s who I’d vote for.

Comment From MarinerDan
Here is what you said about Smoak: “Last June, I publicly “gave up” on Justin Smoak… But, at this point, there’s just no real reason for the Mariners to keep trying to squeeze blood out of this particular turnip. The mirage of hope that surrounds Justin Smoak is just that — a mirage. Until he magically develops some strength that he has never possessed before, nothing else he changes will really matter. There is a large mountain of evidence that Justin Smoak is just not strong enough to be a productive Major League first baseman.”

Dave Cameron: Right. Nowhere did I say he was done. He needs to hit for power in order to be more than a +1 win player. Right now, he’s basically a switch-hitting Mike Carp.

Comment From Jay29
Have you ever caught a foul ball at a professional baseball game?

Dave Cameron: Caught, no. Picked up, yes.

Comment From Andrew
How are defensive metrics calculated for players that played before the ‘modern’ era? For example how do they get UZR for Babe Ruth?

Dave Cameron: UZR only goes back to 2002. Before that, it’s based on Total Zone, a non-play-by-play metric.

Comment From Dan
What does it mean to be an “average” fielder, in terms of UZR? Is zero replacement level or average?

Dave Cameron: Zero is average for that position. However, being an average defensive SS is better than being an average defensive 1B, so you really want to look at FLD+POS for a player’s total defensive value.

Comment From Brandon
Does Freeman get UZR credit for his stretches on close plays at first base?

Dave Cameron: Scoops, yes. Stretches? I mean, you really think he’s better at that than other first baseman?

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to go finish up the trade value post. Thanks for chatting everyone.