Well since Dave said I was going off the deep end, let me explain my comment on Simmons being a “virtual guarantee” to be a 4 WAR player. I think as far as prospects go, where nothing is actually a guarantee, the chances of Andrelton Simmons being a league average hitter at his prime are very, very high. There is nothing in his minor league numbers that makes it seem particularly unlikely and he has already proven that his elite tools (defense and contact ability) carry over against MLB pitching. Just watching his approach at the plate, it would impressive for any 22 year old, but when you add how little upper level baseball experience he has and how much he has improved in such a short period of time, it makes him a near certainty to be a league average hitter in the bigs.
I didn’t use lack of data as a way of increasing my confidence level. But you know that. In my experience with prospects, there is generally a red flag for the guys who end up seriously stagnating offensively, whether it is a lack of walks or too many strikeouts. The data from his MiLB career shows no such issue for Simmons. It’s not that there is a lack of data with regards to him failing, it’s that all the data says there is no reason to expect it.
If you’re basing your analysis entirely on numbers, than sure there is no reason. When I combine scouting reports, numbers, and what I’ve seen from watching him, I’m confident he will at a minimum be a league average offensive player in his prime. You don’t have to be confident in that fact like me, but if you want to add to the conversation at least explain what reason there is to think that he won’t be.
CabreraDeath
14 years ago
I’m pretty sure that Andrew McCutchen would disagree w/ Dave’s assessment that ‘no one can play like (Trout) is playing right now’.
Cutch can, as he’s doing it right now.
everdiso
14 years ago
“Andrelton Simmons has been a decent hitter for about three months of his entire pro career,”
Yeah, unlike Alcides Escobar.
JF145
14 years ago
lksjf
Isaac
14 years ago
Dave, so you say about Trout: “If he gets stronger, he’ll get slower….”
How can you say that with all the advances in training we have nowadays. It’s one thing to say “if he gets bigger, he’ll get slower,” and that’s not even necessarily true. Olympic sprinters are now bigger and stronger than ever…..and much, much faster than their predecessors.
Trout can hit the weight room but to get stronger while keeping his weight down….it’s really not THAT hard to do. And it’s not as if an extra 10 pounds of muscle should slow him down; he can get even faster.
Greg
14 years ago
i think morse, epsi, and one of rendon, goodwin, or meyer could net upton.
a chat lined up for a month in the future (titled 8/18/2012 chat)…Time Travel FTW
Glad to see that the Typo Police are on duty.
Or the Timecop
yawn…
Well since Dave said I was going off the deep end, let me explain my comment on Simmons being a “virtual guarantee” to be a 4 WAR player. I think as far as prospects go, where nothing is actually a guarantee, the chances of Andrelton Simmons being a league average hitter at his prime are very, very high. There is nothing in his minor league numbers that makes it seem particularly unlikely and he has already proven that his elite tools (defense and contact ability) carry over against MLB pitching. Just watching his approach at the plate, it would impressive for any 22 year old, but when you add how little upper level baseball experience he has and how much he has improved in such a short period of time, it makes him a near certainty to be a league average hitter in the bigs.
Using lack of data as a way to increase your confidence level isn’t overwhelmingly convincing. But you know that.
I didn’t use lack of data as a way of increasing my confidence level. But you know that. In my experience with prospects, there is generally a red flag for the guys who end up seriously stagnating offensively, whether it is a lack of walks or too many strikeouts. The data from his MiLB career shows no such issue for Simmons. It’s not that there is a lack of data with regards to him failing, it’s that all the data says there is no reason to expect it.
I’m a Braves homer too but Simmons is not “a near certainty to be a league average hitter in the bigs”. He MIGHT be but it is not certain at all.
If you’re basing your analysis entirely on numbers, than sure there is no reason. When I combine scouting reports, numbers, and what I’ve seen from watching him, I’m confident he will at a minimum be a league average offensive player in his prime. You don’t have to be confident in that fact like me, but if you want to add to the conversation at least explain what reason there is to think that he won’t be.
I’m pretty sure that Andrew McCutchen would disagree w/ Dave’s assessment that ‘no one can play like (Trout) is playing right now’.
Cutch can, as he’s doing it right now.
“Andrelton Simmons has been a decent hitter for about three months of his entire pro career,”
Yeah, unlike Alcides Escobar.
lksjf
Dave, so you say about Trout: “If he gets stronger, he’ll get slower….”
How can you say that with all the advances in training we have nowadays. It’s one thing to say “if he gets bigger, he’ll get slower,” and that’s not even necessarily true. Olympic sprinters are now bigger and stronger than ever…..and much, much faster than their predecessors.
Trout can hit the weight room but to get stronger while keeping his weight down….it’s really not THAT hard to do. And it’s not as if an extra 10 pounds of muscle should slow him down; he can get even faster.
i think morse, epsi, and one of rendon, goodwin, or meyer could net upton.