FanGraphs Chat – 9/4/13

Dave Cameron: Back for our weekly Wednesday chat, and the queue is now open. Feel free to ask all non-fantasy related Qs.

Dave Cameron: Jeff always starts late and you guys seem to enjoy his chats, so just assume I’m copying his shtick.

Comment From JEB
Billy Hamilton has some stones running on Yadi eh?

Dave Cameron: Major league debut, take off on the best defensive catcher in baseball. That’s fun.

Comment From Guest
If Cabrera is off and on like this for the rest of the year, can Trout win MVP?

Dave Cameron: There’s no chance Trout wins because of his team’s record. He probably won’t even finish second if Baltimore makes the playoffs.

Comment From Dionysus
Fireman of the Year in the AL is probably going to Mo (the voters won’t be able to help themselves) but if not him, who would it be? Uehara seems certainly deserving with his crazypants numbers

Dave Cameron: Greg Holland says hello.

Comment From Moses
Since the start of 2012, Andrew McCutchen’s BABIP is over .365. At what point is this no longer a fluke and what would you say his true talent BABIP is?

Dave Cameron: There’s no such thing as a point at which you just look at the results and decide you no no longer need regression. As the sample grows larger, your estimate gets closer to the number produced, but you always regress.

Comment From Tim
Is there a realistic series of moves the M’s can make that would put them in position to contend next season (even if you wouldn’t necessarily view them as reasonable or beneficial in the long-term)?

Dave Cameron: Realistic? Probably not.

Comment From Zach
Do you see the Orioles making any significant upgrades this offseason at 2B, DH, or SP? I imagine they’ll see what they have in Schoop at 2B, continue to have a DH-by-committee, and see how the multiple in-house SPs shake out (Gausman, Wada, Britton, S. Johnson, etc.). As a fan, this disheartens me.

Dave Cameron: Eventually, you’d think they’ll take advantage of the fact that their team is good and try to win.

Comment From Alex
Could you see the Astros going after Josh Johnson this offseason? He could be a bargain and provided leadership for that young staff.

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Geoff
Phil Hughes pitches where next year and in what role?

Dave Cameron: He seems like a Twin.

Dave Cameron: And he’d probably be their best pitcher.

Comment From Matt
How aggressive do you expect Theo/Jed to be in the coming offseason, both in terms of FA and using their farm assets as trading chips? Is the window close to opening?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll be in on the young guys who might be available in trade — Price, Stanton, etc…

Comment From Guest
How do the Orioles fix their pitching problem? One of the best offenses and defenses in the game, but they

Dave Cameron: The catcher framing studies all suggest that Matt Wieters is pretty poor at that part of the game. It might be that he’s making their pitchers look worse than they are.

Comment From JES
Schoenfeld thinks M’s should have made Franklin the shortstop rather than Miller because of defense-thoughts? Future of Dustin Ackley?

Dave Cameron: That’s crazy pants. Nick Franklin is a lousy second baseman and would be cover your eyes terrible at shortstop.

Comment From Guest
Is Koji Uehara the best reliever in baseball right now?

Dave Cameron: Kimbrel, Jansen, Chapman… no, not even that close. And I like Koji, but no.

Comment From Izzy
Given his expanding WAR-lead, Mike Trout probably gets at least a couple of first place votes, right?

Dave Cameron: Doubt it.

Comment From Spencer
At how many years does it make sense for the Braves to let McCann go? If he wants 4 years, do they give it to him?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think there’s any chance they re-sign him.

Comment From Matt
What do you make of Liriano’s season this year? Do you think the Twins management hindered him, or at least, didn’t position him for success with their “hit to contact” mantra?

Dave Cameron: 1. NL. 2. Russell Martin. 3. Health.

Comment From DrBGiantsfan
Should the Giants make a Qualifying Offer to Timmy? Should he accept if they do?

Dave Cameron: Yes, no.

Comment From Wacka Flocka
Do the Orioles shift Machado over to SS next season, or is he a 3B here on out?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he ever moves back to SS.

Comment From Wacka Flocka
Is Billy Hamilton the 2014 Reds CF? Or do they resign Choo?

Dave Cameron: Billy Hamilton probably can’t hit, so counting on him to play every day next year would be weird. Choo leaves, they find a new short term CF.

Comment From Jeb
Where would you guess McCann lands?

Dave Cameron: Boston.

Comment From Tyler
Should the Rangers make a qualifying offer to Nelson Cruz in the offseason? And would he accept it?

Dave Cameron: No, yes.

Comment From Teddy
So far this season Bryce Harper has increased his BA by 5 points but increased his OBP by 38 points. This as well coming with a slightly lower BABIP, as well as increase in Walk percentage and slight decrease in K percentage. As a nats fan would you say that this is the type of offensive increase we should be extremely pleased about even though he has not hit as many HR as expected. (wRC+ increased by 25 points)

Dave Cameron: He’s definitely trending in the right direction offensively.

Comment From GSon
Franklin Gutierrez.. history in Seattle.. or do the M’s work out a deal without picking up the option?

Dave Cameron: I’d say there’s zero chance he’s back next year.

Comment From Spencer
Do humans have the amount of fingers that need to be crossed when Kameron Loe starts a major league game? Not that it means much, but why wouldn’t you just let a prospect have a go at the Mets?

Dave Cameron: Kam Loe is a righty specialist. Starting him is a little nutso, but it is possible that they just didn’t have any other options.

Comment From Nick
What free agent pitchers could/should the Orioles target for next year?

Dave Cameron: Buying low on a guy like Johnson/Lincecum/Halladay probably has the highest impact potential.

Comment From Furman
Adam Wainwright… what’s wrong? He’s been awful the last two games.

Dave Cameron: Players do not perform the same way every game.

Comment From Tom
Where do you see AJ Burnett next year?

Dave Cameron: Pittsburgh.

Comment From Jeb
You are Cashman – what do you offer Cano before free agency starts?

Dave Cameron: 8/200.

Comment From Sam
Does Boston give a 4 QOs? Do they give one to Napoli, Salty, Drew in addition to Ellsbury?

Dave Cameron: No times three. Those are easy accepts, and there’s no way a team gives up a draft pick to outbid 1/14 for any of those guys.

Comment From Ned
Timmy in LA next year or resign Nolasco?

Dave Cameron: Nolasco’s going to be a very interesting free agent, given his spotty history but solid performance and youth. My guess is he ends up staying in LA.

Comment From Sam
Who is on your watch list as a potential FA bargain? Like you had with Feldman last year.

Dave Cameron: I haven’t looked over the whole list yet, but will start doing so soon.

Comment From Guest
How much trade value does Danny Espinosa have?

Dave Cameron: Zero.

Comment From Chris
Do you think the Rangers could sign Cruz for less than the QO?

Dave Cameron: Maybe. We’ll have to see how the PED thing hurts him. Melky got killed by it, but he didn’t have Cruz’s track record. I could see Cruz having to settle for 2/20 or something.

Comment From Guest
If you’re John Farrell, who starts game 1 of a playoff series?

Dave Cameron: Lackey.

Comment From Tyler
Mitch Moreland is have a decent year, but will it be enough to hold off the Rangers looking for an upgrade this offseason?

Dave Cameron: In what way is he having a decent year?

Comment From Andrew
Do you see utilization of RA9 WAR vs FIP WAR for pitchers as tied to the legacy of wanting to ascribe more responsibility to pitchers than is truly correct? (see W-L record) Additionally, is there any way to prospectively identify pitchers who out-perform their FIP, (I see Kershaw labeled as such) or is this a fiction?

Dave Cameron: I think the reality is that both FIP and RA9 are wrong, and people will choose the more comfortable wrong answer until we can prove that we found the right one. In terms of identifying FIP beaters, look for high-K/high fly ball lefties.

Dave Cameron: Or knuckleballers.

Comment From B
Reds extend the qualifying offer to Arroyo?

Dave Cameron: No way.

Comment From Jax Teller
How can I get into your profession? I love baseball, stats, and writing about them.

Dave Cameron: Start a blog. Show you can write. Do interesting work.

Comment From Will Venable
Am I your favorite player?

Dave Cameron: No, that’s probably still Adrian Beltre.

Comment From Adam
What do the Royals need to be a true playoff contender next year? 2nd baseman and RF I’m guessing

Dave Cameron: That would be a good start, but unless those two guys are Cano and Stanton, they’re still not catching Detroit.

Comment From Chris
Do the M’s hopefully let Kendry’s walk?

Dave Cameron: Doubt it. I think they make the QO and he takes it.

Comment From zack
Will the Cardinals make Beltran a qualifying offer? Will he take it?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it.

Comment From Guest
Do you think the Braves are making a wise decision not re-signing McCann?

Dave Cameron: Aging catchers with injury histories are scary. Depends on the price.

Comment From DuDu
Is Billy Hamilton the next Joey Gathright?

Dave Cameron: Should be better than that.

Comment From Eric
Chris Carter has obvious contact issues but looking deeper, there is cause for optimism. Good wOBA & wRC+ numbers plus strong power numbers. Can he become an everyday DH/1B on a decent team?

Dave Cameron: A 112 wRC+ from a bat-only player is pretty close to replacement level.

Comment From Jason
So Morales’ 0.8 WAR gets him a QO, but the trio of Salty, Drew, and Napoli, each hovering around 2.5 WAR, is out of luck?

Dave Cameron: The Mariners don’t know what they’re doing. The Red Sox do.

Comment From AJ
With all these qualifying offer questions…is there ever a situation where you think a team should offer it, and the player should accept? Or the team shouldn’t offer it, and even if they do, the player shouldn’t accept? Or will the answers all be “Yes. No.” or “No. Yes.”

Dave Cameron: There are some situations where it’s probably close to market value, and keeping the term to one year is in the team’s favor. Beltran might even be a decent example of that, though the Cards OF situation makes that a little stickier.

Comment From Moe Town
What’s your take on the year Verlander is having? He won’t start game 1 of a playoff series, right? Will he rebound next year?

Dave Cameron: He’s not the Justin Verlander of two or three years ago, but he’s still really good.

Comment From Furman
Has FanGraphs done any analysis on long term free agent contracts? It seems like the vast majority of them blow up in the team’s face. As a Yankee fan, of all the long term deals they have given free agents over the years, only Mussina comes to mind as someone who was well worth the cost.

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that the Yankees internal rate of return is different from everyone elses, so the prices they can pay is also higher.

Dave Cameron: Overall, long term free agent contracts are generally not a great idea though.

Comment From Erik
Why isn’t Yu Darvish in the lead for the AL Cy Young?

Dave Cameron: Because Max Scherzer is 19-2.

Comment From Spencer
When do you think the Braves should trade Kimbrel? Do you think the Tigers would give up Castellanos for Kimbrel? If the bullpen bites DET in the postseason, you gotta think they might do that, right?

Dave Cameron: No, they wouldn’t do it for the same reasons you want the Braves to do it.

Comment From John "All I Lackey is Support" Lackey
Why doesn’t Lackey get run support? Is it true that there are pitchers that are snake bit? Are there stats for this?

Dave Cameron: No, its random.

Comment From Ryan S
On a season to season basis, do the Tigers have one of the best starting staffs ever? (4 of the top 13 starters in WAR)

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I wrote about this a while back. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/breaking-down-the-best-rotations-of-all-time/

Comment From Spencer
Would you say that it comes down to the new TV money for the Braves and McCann? If the 20-25 million is accurate, and a majority of it is used on the ML payroll, I think they could easily offer 4/52. By the time McCann is really getting up there, Uggla’s contract is gone.

Dave Cameron: You can’t just allocate payroll that way. They also have to account for raises for Heyward/Freeman.

Comment From Brian
Annoying umpire habit bracket – the top 4 seeds have to be: Jim Joyce’s (way too loud) strike calls, Tim McClellan’s (way too delayed) strike call, Angel Hernandez’s smirk and Cb Bucknor’s incompentence. Am i missing nay?

Dave Cameron: Tom Hallion’s uppercut.

Comment From RSquared
Do you think the MLBPA and agents will encourage more mid-tier FA’S to accept a QO if offered to discourage the use of the tag in the future? Once enough teams are saddled with $14M contracts, it could lead to easier player movement.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone got the QO last year that didn’t deserve it. If anything, teams were too conservative with making the offer. Edwin Jackson is a great example of a guy who absolutely should have gotten one.

Comment From Derp
Following up on another reader’s Franklin Gutierrez question, is he done with baseball? Or does he take a minor league deal somewhere?

Dave Cameron: He’ll get a big league contract from someone.

Comment From wang
Any chance Kolten Wong ends up as Cards’ playoff SS?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Erik
Sure, but if the Cy Young looked at actual pitcher value, isn’t Darvish the runaway leader right now?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From BassmanUW
Regarding the long term free agent deals, the question in my mind isn’t if the contract looks awful in the last half of the deal. It’s going to. The question is how it’s going to look in the first half of the deal. You accept that the player will be overpaid in year 6 of an 8 year deal. The problem happens if he’s overpaid in year 3 of the deal. And the disaster occurs when he’s overpaid in year one.

Dave Cameron: This is basically true, but also something of an oversimplification. But, yes, contracts shouldn’t be just evaluated on how they look at the end.

Comment From zack
Has the anti win sentiment among the saber community actually been a little unfair to Scherzer? Its not like he would be a 2005 Bartolo Colon type Cy young winner.

Dave Cameron: Is anyone saying Scherzer isn’t actually a good candidate?

Comment From Chad
Do you think Trout will ever put up the offensive #s (HR & RBI) to win an MVP, even if his WAR is lower.

Dave Cameron: Sure. He just needs his team to make the playoffs.

Comment From dog bone
why is SS considered more difficult position than 2b? both play up the middle. is it having to throw to 1st?

Dave Cameron: 1. There are more balls hit to the SS side than the 2B side. 2. The SS has to make plays that require him to get to the ball quicker in order to convert the out because of the distance the ball has to travel in the air.

Comment From Jay
How would you rank the top three teams in each league as the regular season winds down?

Dave Cameron: AL: DET/BOS/TEX, in that order. NL: STL/LAD/ATL.

Comment From Jeb
Is there any research on marquee value (ie off-the-field value)?

Dave Cameron: Most of it concludes that there isn’t much value there.

Comment From kevinthecomic
Any chance you update that article on the Tiger’s staff? I see that you wrote it at the end of May. It would be interesting to see if they have progressed or regressed. Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’ll do that this month.

Comment From Joe
How about Granderson for Yes, Yes?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he might be a good candidate for where the QO makes sense, as does accepting.

Comment From RF
Uehara: best relief pitcher signing last off-season? Especially considering the vesting option for $5 million next year.

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Andrew
Is there any value in a pitcher stat that combines FIP, with batted ball rates (does one exist?), or is this a noisy dead-end that does not answer anything that current stats do separately?

Dave Cameron: That stat exists, and is called bbFIP.

Comment From zack
What player will be most overpaid relative to actual value?

Dave Cameron: Probably Matt Garza. I could see him getting stupid money this winter.

Comment From Jay
Can the Red Sox extend Lester a QO or does his option (oddly enough, 14 mill) take precedent?

Dave Cameron: They could make him the QO if they turned down the option, but there’s no reason for them to do that.

Comment From Redbeard
Worst circle of Gm decisions that no one knows about has to be Pirates trading King and Bell for Randa, then letting Randa go in the expansion draft the next year and then resigning washed up Randa almost 10 years later to replace salary dumped Aramis Ramirez all the while blocking Freddy Sanchez right?

Dave Cameron: This is a very odd thing to hold a very long grudge about.

Comment From Geoff
Edwin Jackson: third-worst RE24, worst WPA (-3.20) among all qualified pitchers. +2 win pitcher, according to fWAR.

Dave Cameron: WPA is basically useless for starting pitchers. RE24 is really just runs allowed. Basically, your comment is “Edwin Jackson’s FIP and ERA don’t match.”

Comment From Eli
Who wins the AL West and by how many games.

Dave Cameron: Texas, 2.

Comment From dog bone
in the POs what’s stopping a team like the pirates from starting cole, getting a oppenent lineup full of lefties, and subbing in Liriano after ONE inning?

Dave Cameron: Teams don’t like throwing off their players routines.

Comment From Ozzie
Hi Dave, what could be the factors contributing to the 1.5WAR difference between baseball reference and fangraphs estimation of WAR for Chris Sale? I only ask b/c a 1.5 win difference seems large, no?

Dave Cameron: We measure pitchers differently, so there will be some big gaps there. They use runs allowed, we use FIP. As the Edwin Jackson commenter pointed out, those don’t always line up.

Comment From RetireNutting
You’ve snubbed them re: your “top 3 teams” list despite the fact that they’re up on STL in the standings but — can we talk about the Pirates? It’s meaning is symbolic in nature, but they won 81 last night. Do you believe in Cinderella’s 1) and do the Pirates stack up as a good possibility of one 2)?

Dave Cameron: I like the Pirates, and I think they’re a legitimate threat in the postseason, but I don’t think they’re quite as good as the three I mentioned. Their offense is still a bit shaky.

Comment From Ray
Ned Colletti and the LAD front office have made some very good moves over the last two years to put them in this position, but no one is talking about it. They got Hanley and Nolasco from the Marlins for Eovaldi, basically, and the Ryu and Puig signings have really paid off. Oh, and the huge trade with the Red Sox has played out well too. GM of the year?

Dave Cameron: Hanley and Nolasco didn’t come together. The Red Sox trade was still insane. The Ryu/Puig moves have worked out great, as have lesser pickups like Mark Ellis, but no, I wouldn’t consider Ned for GM of the year.

Comment From dog bone
but switching RHP/LHP early in a game would be good strategy, no? especially if it’s a 1 game winner moves on WC gamr

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I suggested something similar for the wild card game last year. Talked to some people in the game about why they wouldn’t do it, and the response was basically that the players would hate it and it might screw them up.

Comment From Jeb
Have there been any attempts to create a WPA that takes seasonal context into account, even if it could only exist at the end of the season?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s PPA, which is Postseason Probability Added, by Dave Studemund.

Comment From RetireNutting
Huntington pretty much *has* to be GM of the year, no?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Geoff
Isn’t WPA only useless for starting pitchers depending on what exactly you’re saying? I mean, are we supposed to believe Jackson and his 5.66 (!) runs allowed average haven’t been one of the most harmful performances of any pitcher this year?

Dave Cameron: WPA doesn’t tell you anything that other stats don’t tell you, and it actually tells you less in some cases. If a pitcher throws a perfect game, but his team scores 10 runs in the first inning, he gets no credit by WPA because the game was a blowout. There’s just no reason to use WPA to evaluate a starter.

Comment From Adam Dumm
Umm, what is a “qualifying offer”?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-qualifying-offer-and-you/

Comment From Jeb
What’s your guess for most of the heavy duty SABR guys’ majors? Econ? Stats?

Dave Cameron: Econ/comp sci.

Comment From Joel
If you had to give a % of total defensive value to each part of catcher defense (throwing out runners/holding runners, framing, blocking pitches, etc.), what would those numbers look like?

Dave Cameron: 50% handling pitchers/framing/being in charge, 25% controlling running game, 25% blocking pitches.

Comment From Jay
Cherington has to get some nods for GM- Koji, Victorino, Napoli, Gomes… Only Dempster has been disappointing.

Dave Cameron: Sure, they had a really good winter. But they also had a ton of money to spend, which makes things easier.

Comment From Guest
Huntington bent Cherington over on Melancon for Hanrahan

Dave Cameron: Also, that.

Comment From Daniel
If the Royals can finish strong and hang around the periphery of the wild card chase throughout September, will that bode well for 2014? Is 2013 a springboard for future success for KC?

Dave Cameron: That isn’t how baseball works. You don’t get momentum from one year to the next.

Comment From zack
Any chance the cubs sign Garza in the offseason? Also, why don’t more teams having down years trade veteran rentals and then sign them again without giving a pick? (ex: Phillies and Utley)

Dave Cameron: Players are people, and they often take getting traded away as a sign that they aren’t really wanted.

Comment From Spencer
There’s an ESPN article up saying the Mets might be tanking the end of the season so they don’t end up in that unprotected 11/12 range again. You think there’s any truth to that? Or are Harang and Dice-K there because there are literally no other options?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think the Mets are trying to lose on purpose.

Comment From JK
While we’re doing percentages, what percentage do you put luck/randomness at for operating a team? Last year, Kenny Williams trades for Liriano, who gives him a 5.40/4.51 ERA/FIP down the stretch for the Sox. Huntington signs him, and gets a 2.57/2.64. This happens constantly. Maybe 70/30?

Dave Cameron: Probably more like 60/40. There’s just a huge amount of unpredictability in baseball. You can do all the right things and have it not work.

Comment From Gila Monster
I got in an argument about BABIP in saying Dustin Pedroia was going to rebound because his BABIP was below his career numbers and some poor luck. The other party said it was because he was making poor contact/hitting into outs, even though batted ball data was near norms. When we say BABIP will rebound are we saying it is mostly bad luck or is it possible they are hitting poorly, but the BABIP regression is due to a return to career skills/not luck?

Dave Cameron: There’s a difference between “luck” and “won’t continue”. A guy can just hit a bunch of weak ground outs, and not have the results be unlucky, but still be having results that won’t continue because his track record shows that he’s actually better than he’s performed.

Comment From Erik
Or you can do all the wrong things and try to convince people that it did work (Jack Zduriencik).

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that too.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Any chance of getting wild card specific standings for the standings page? Or at least to separate NL from AL?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=wc

Comment From Guest
By saying this, “Players are people, and they often take getting traded away as a sign that they aren’t really wanted.” you’re assuming players are unintelligent, fickle, and short-sighted people.

Dave Cameron: Have you met many MLB players?

Comment From zack
In regards to qualifying offers and the risk that a player accepts it, is there really much risk to any one year deal?

Dave Cameron: Is it “risky” for you to buy a gallon of milk for $1,000? I mean, it’s just one gallon of milk, and $1,000 probably won’t bankrupt you. But doing that would be stupid.

Comment From Abe Zeus
Momentum may not carry over from season to season but young teams gain experience and improve each year as they grow mentally and physically towards their peak, right?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From Bret
Fair to say that Alex Anthopoulos has to find a way to turn things around this offsesaon or his job will be gone in a year or so? What ideas would you have for improving the Blue Jays without much money or prospects left to spend?

Dave Cameron: A good example of good moves not working out. AA isn’t the problem there.

Comment From Dr. Walter Bishop
Does Xander Boegarts start next season at short, or do he and Middlebrooks duke it out at 3rd?

Dave Cameron: They traded Iglesias because they believe he can play SS for at least a few years.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch. Thanks for hanging out everyone.