FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 47 Free Agents

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive (denoted as Real) and also how much they — were they, themselves, actual GMs — would offer each free agent in terms of years and dollars (denoted as Fake).

Note that players are ranked in terms of total projected contract value. Note also that “year” figures have been rounded to the nearest whole number, with a view to representing the total contract values more realistically. A spreadsheet containing the results (with nerdy decimal points) is available here.

Statistics are from 2013. Offensive and defensive value (denoted as Off and Def, respectively) are expressed relative to league average. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. Both metrics were recently explored by Dave Cameron in these pages.

Finally, with regard to why this is a list of 47 and not 50 free agents: an overwhelming percentage of respondents believe that Toronto will just pick up Adam Lind’s option. Furthermore, two notable international free agents — Jose Abreu and Masahiro Tanaka — are absent from this list, and their particular situations probably receive a more considered attention than is easily facilitated by means of a Google Doc.

#1 Robinson Cano (2B)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
30	681	9.5 %	12.5 %	.314	.383	.516	.384	142	30.6	2.5	6.0

Real Years: 8
Real AAV: $24.5
Real Total: $196.2

Fake Years: 5
Fake AAV: $23.9
Fake Total: $119.7

Representative Comment
“I wouldn’t want to guarantee salary past age 37 or age 38. I could see him getting more years than that, at the same AAV I am willing to pay in fake world.”

#2 Jacoby Ellsbury (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
29	636	7.4 %	14.5 %	.298	.355	.426	.343	113	20.5	12.0	5.8

Real Years: 6
Real AAV: $18.7
Real Total: $112.4

Fake Years: 5
Fake AAV: $17.5
Fake Total: $87.3

Representative Comment
“I don’t want to pay a center fielder reliant on legs past his age-34 or -35 year. But I’d be willing to pay him more during the time he’s there. Who knows… maybe he’ll find that power again.”

#3 Shin-Soo Choo (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
30	712	15.7 %	18.7 %	.285	.423	.462	.393	151	40.3	-13.3	5.2

Real Years: 5
Real AAV: $16.2
Real Total: $80.9

Fake Years: 4
Fake AAV: $15.3
Fake Total: $61.0

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll receive qualifying offer: 89%.
Percent of respondents who believe he’ll accept qualifying offer: 11%.

Representative Comment
“While I think Choo is a fine player and good CORNER outfielder I’m not sure if he is going to hold up physically, and he is trending badly against LHP which erodes some of his value in my eyes.”

#4 Brian McCann (C)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
29	402	9.7 %	16.4 %	.256	.336	.461	.347	122	5.6	7.7	2.7

Real Years: 4
Real AAV: $14.8
Real Total: $59.0

Fake Years: 3
Fake AAV: $13.5
Fake Total: $40.5

Representative Comment
“As a GM I’d try to lure the aging catcher with higher $/yr but fewer years, probably with some option years or playing time incentives for more years.  I am of course assuming that he won’t stop me in the hall on my way to the conference room for disrespecting his agent or something.”

#5 Matt Garza (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
29	155.1	7.88	2.43	38.6 %	3.82	3.88	3.73	2.2	2.2

Real Years: 4
Real AAV: $14.7
Real Total: $58.7

Fake Years: 3
Fake AAV: $12.9
Fake Total: $38.7

Representative Comment
“I think Garza is still overrated based upon prospect pedigree, strong playoff performances with the Rays, and an outlier first year with the Cubs.”

#6 Curtis Granderson (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
32	245	11.0 %	28.2 %	.229	.317	.407	.319	97	0.2	4.3	1.4

Real Years: 4
Real AAV: $14.0
Real Total: $55.9

Fake Years: 3
Fake AAV: $12.7
Fake Total: $38.0

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll receive qualifying offer: 83%.
Percent of respondents who believe he’ll accept qualifying offer: 36%.

Representative Comment
“He’s worth more to the Yankees. He’s made for that park. Dead pull hitter with a short porch. His home runs take a hit in most other parks.”

#7 Ricky Nolasco (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
30	199.1	7.45	2.08	43.0 %	3.70	3.34	3.58	2.0	3.0

Real Years: 4
Real AAV: $12.6
Real Total: $50.4

Fake Years: 3
Fake AAV: $11.6
Fake Total: $34.9

Representative Comment
“I think its very realistic to see him get a similar deal as Mark Buerhle got. [He] will always give you innings, even when he doesn’t have his best stuff…. [H]e is a productive pitcher in the middle of the rotation, and that’s worth something nowadays.”

#8 Ubaldo Jimenez (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
29	182.2	9.56	3.94	43.9 %	3.30	3.43	3.62	3.2	3.2

Real Years: 4
Real AAV: $12.2
Real Total: $48.8

Fake Years: 3
Fake AAV: $11.1
Fake Total: $33.3

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll void $8M club option:* 93%.

*Clause made possible because of trade from Colorado to Cleveland.

Representative Comment
“I’m fine paying him the amount of the qualifying offer for next year and go year-to-year with him, and if he goes elsewhere for longer I’ll collect the draft pick and re-sign Kazmir cheaper.”

#9 Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
28	470	9.1 %	29.6 %	.273	.338	.466	.349	117	10.1	7.3	3.6

Real Years: 4
Real AAV: $11.1
Real Total: $44.5

Fake Years: 3
Fake AAV: $10.3
Fake Total: $30.9

Representative Comment
“I wouldn’t personally pay for an OBP mostly inflated by a sky-high BABIP, but some team will.  Also, I wouldn’t want to go longer than three years on a catcher approaching 30, but a team will need to do so in order to sign him.”

#10 Tim Lincecum (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
29	197.2	8.79	3.46	45.3 %	4.37	3.74	3.56	0.2	1.6

Real Years: 3
Real AAV: $13.3
Real Total: $40.0

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $11.9
Fake Total: $23.7

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll receive qualifying offer: 77%.
Percent of respondents who believe he’ll accept qualifying offer: 40%.

Representative Comment
“He’s relatively unlikely to be more than a three-win pitcher again and definitely could just crater, but there is at least a non-zero possibility that he recovers to be something like the monster he was a few years ago and turns even a $22M/year deal into a bargain.”

#11 Ervin Santana (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
30	211.0	6.87	2.18	46.2 %	3.24	3.93	3.69	4.5	3.0

Real Years: 3
Real AAV: $13.3
Real Total: $39.8

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $12.0
Fake Total: $23.9

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll accept qualifying offer :* 14%.

*Which Dayton Moore has said Royals would likely extend.

Representative Comment
“Too risky but someone will pay for his recent performance and give him the years because of his age.”

#12 Mike Napoli (C/1B)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
31	578	12.6 %	32.4 %	.259	.360	.482	.367	129	17.6	-0.6	3.9

Real Years: 3
Real AAV: $13.3
Real Total: $39.8

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $12.3
Fake Total: $24.6

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll receive qualifying offer: 81%.

Representative Comment
“Hip injury is worrisome any longer than two years, in my opinion. Even at first base.”

#13 Stephen Drew (SS)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
30	501	10.8 %	24.8 %	.253	.333	.443	.337	109	3.8	10.9	3.4

Real Years: 3
Real AAV: $11.0
Real Total: $33.0

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $10.1
Fake Total: $20.2

Would Drew’s future with Boston be different if Xander Bogaerts didn’t exist?
Yes, considerably: 73.3%
Yes, a little: 26.9%
No, pretty much the same: 5.7%
No, exactly the same: 0.2%
Ridiculous question: 2.8%

Representative Comment
“Given his health history, in a fake world I’d like to structure a deal that offers high AAV but requires him staying healthy.”

#14 Kendrys Morales (1B/DH)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
30	657	7.5 %	17.4 %	.277	.336	.449	.342	116	6.4	-16.7	1.2

Real Years: 3
Real AAV: $10.8
Real Total: $32.5

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $7.9
Fake Total: $15.9

Representative Comment
“I’ve read rumors on this here internet that the Mariners plan to extend to Mr. Morales a qualifying offer and that he plans to refuse the offer. I’m curious, if the readership were polled as to which party is making the more foolhardy move, what the results might be.”

#15 Nelson Cruz (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
32	456	7.7 %	23.9 %	.266	.327	.506	.359	122	8.4	-9.7	1.5

Real Years: 3
Real AAV: $10.6
Real Total: $31.8

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $9.0
Fake Total: $18.1

Average AAV lost because of PED suspension: $4.8 million.

Representative Comment
“The major cost of Cruz’s suspension will be years on the contract. Without the suspension, he’d be waiting on a 3-5 year deal… As it stands, he probably will take the Rangers’ qualifying offer for $14 million.”

#16 Hiroki Kuroda (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
38	201.1	6.71	1.92	46.6 %	3.31	3.56	3.60	4.6	3.8

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $14.8
Real Total: $29.5

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $14.3
Fake Total: $28.6

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll receive qualifying offer: 93%.
Percent of respondents who believe he’ll accept qualifying offer: 43%.

Representative Comment
“Someone might want to give him a multiple-year deal, but the qualifying offer seems perfect for Kuroda.”

#17 Omar Infante (2B)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
31	476	4.2 %	9.2 %	.318	.345	.450	.346	117	9.0	3.8	3.1

Real Years: 3
Real AAV: $9.2
Real Total: $27.5

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $8.5
Fake Total: $16.9

Representative Comment
“I wouldn’t go past three years for a second baseman on the wrong side of 30, unless it was for a low AAV.”

#18 Carlos Beltran (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
36	600	6.3 %	15.0 %	.296	.339	.491	.359	132	22.4	-21.4	2.0

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $13.4
Real Total: $26.8

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $12.6
Fake Total: $25.2

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll receive qualifying offer: 73%.
Percent of respondents who believe he’ll accept qualifying offer: 45%.

Representative Comment
“Whether I would sign Beltran would depend on if I was GM for an AL or NL team. Beltran really needs to play on an AL team so he can DH… He could probably handle 600+ PA as a DH, which he hasn’t done since 2008.”

#19 Scott Feldman (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
30	181.2	6.54	2.77	49.6 %	3.86	4.03	3.96	2.1	2.1

Real Years: 3
Real AAV: $8.8
Real Total: $26.5

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $8.0
Fake Total: $15.9

Representative Comment
“Feldman’s a solid pitcher, not too old by FA status. I think he’s worth more than he’s likely to get.”

#20 Joe Nathan (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
38	64.2	10.16	3.06	32.0 %	1.39	2.26	3.27	3.5	2.5

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $10.3
Real Total: $20.7

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $8.2
Fake Total: $8.2

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll receive qualifying offer: 32%.
Percent of respondents who believe he’ll accept qualifying offer: 68%.

Representative Comment
On difference between Real and Fake: “Age would be a concern, and other closers are younger. There are others probably cheaper, too.”

#21 A.J. Burnett (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
36	191.0	9.85	3.16	56.5 %	3.30	2.80	2.92	2.7	4.0

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $13.1
Real Total: $26.2

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $11.8
Fake Total: $23.5

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll receive qualifying offer: 73%.
Percent of respondents who believe he’ll accept qualifying offer: 58%.

Representative Comment
“I think the qualifying offer works perfectly for A.J. Burnett, all around. Maybe someone would go to two years to snag him if he becomes a free agent, but I don’t think so.”

#22 Josh Johnson (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
29	81.1	9.18	3.32	45.1 %	6.20	4.62	3.58	-1.3	0.5

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $10.0
Real Total: $19.9

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $9.1
Fake Total: $18.3

What’s most representative of Josh Johnson’s current true-talent level?
His 152 ERA-: 10%.
His 114 FIP-: 48%.
His 90 xFIP-: 42%.

Representative Comment
“I think the contract he signs will [have] low base salary with a fair amount of incentives.”

#23 Dan Haren (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
32	169.2	8.01	1.64	36.0 %	4.67	4.09	3.67	0.3	1.5

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $9.6
Real Total: $19.2

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $8.4
Fake Total: $16.9

Dan Haren underperformed his xFIP by a full run in 2013. Why?
No big deal. Random variation is the reason: 34%.
Be concerned. It’s representative of real decline: 34%.
Other: 32%.

Representative Comment
“Haren’s GB% keeps moving the wrong way for an effective pitcher — down to 36% in 2013.”

#24 Roy Halladay (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
36	62.0	7.40	5.23	40.7 %	6.82	6.14	5.10	-1.2	-0.8

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $9.2
Real Total: $18.5

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $7.5
Fake Total: $7.5

Halladay’s likely average fastball velocity in 2014: 88.9 mph.

Representative Comment
“INCENTIVE-BASED CONTRACT!”

#25 Tim Hudson (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
37	131.1	6.51	2.47	55.8 %	3.97	3.46	3.56	1.3	1.7

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $8.6
Real Total: $17.2

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $8.0
Fake Total: $8.0

Representative Comment
“I actually think he’ll get less than he could… because I think he’ll take a hometown discount and stay with the Braves.”

#26 Carlos Ruiz (C)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
34	341	5.3 %	11.4 %	.268	.320	.368	.303	89	-3.4	6.2	1.4

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $8.4
Real Total: $16.8

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $7.4
Fake Total: $14.8

Representative Comment
“His age makes him a liability to have on the books longer than one year at a time… In the real world, his agent will find someone willing to bet on one year of 2.5+ WAR to make a second year potential drop off more palatable.”

#27 Bronson Arroyo (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
36	202.0	5.52	1.51	44.4 %	3.79	4.49	3.97	2.7	0.8

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $8.3
Real Total: $16.6

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $6.6
Fake Total: $13.2

Representative Comment
“His veteran status and reliability make him extremely valuable for some teams… WAR underrates him, as well.”

#28 Scott Kazmir (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
29	158.0	9.23	2.68	40.9 %	4.04	3.51	3.36	1.6	2.5

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $8.3
Real Total: $16.5

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $7.6
Fake Total: $15.1

Percent of respondents who believe he’ll receive qualifying offer: 13%.
Percent of respondents who believe he’ll accept qualifying offer: 85%.

Representative Comment
“I’d give him a 165 innings pitched requirement in 2014 to guarantee the second year and throw in bonuses… if he passed the innings threshold in each season.”

#29 Juan Uribe (SS)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
34	426	7.0 %	19.0 %	.278	.331	.438	.334	116	9.0	25.3	5.1

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $8.1
Real Total: $16.1

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $6.1
Fake Total: $6.1

Representative Comment
“Uribe is pretty likely to not repeat this year and his last two years are very worrying, so I’d only sign him if [for one year. However,] I’m pretty sure someone will bump it up to two years to get him and he’ll take it.”

#30 Phil Hughes (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
27	145.2	7.48	2.59	30.8 %	5.19	4.50	4.39	0.0	1.3

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $7.9
Real Total: $15.8

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $6.6
Fake Total: $13.3

Representative Comment
“[Would sign him] only if my ballclub plays in a very, very pitcher-friendly park. Could pull a Jason Marquis if San Diego gobbles him up.”

#31 Grant Balfour (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
35	62.2	10.34	3.88	37.9 %	2.59	3.49	3.42	1.5	0.6

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $7.7
Real Total: $15.3

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $5.8
Fake Total: $11.7

Representative Comment
“Have you ever noticed that Grant Balfour’s last name sounds like ‘ball four’? It’s funny because he is a pitcher, you see.”

#32 James Loney (1B)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
29	598	7.4 %	12.9 %	.299	.348	.430	.339	118	10.2	-5.0	2.7

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $7.6
Real Total: $15.1

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $5.9
Fake Total: $11.8

Representative Comment
“His 2013 numbers were unsustainable. After a great start, he batted merely .276/.322/.378 in the second half. Some GMs will need a first baseman and see his decent .299/.348/.430, but that was propped up by an unusually good April/May. I’d stay away from him completely, unless I had a gaping hole at first base and all the other good options were taken.”

#33 Marlon Byrd (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
35	579	5.4 %	24.9 %	.291	.336	.511	.364	136	24.0	-3.7	4.1

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $7.5
Real Total: $15.0

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $5.9
Fake Total: $5.9

Representative Comment
“Byrd’s tricky, because his career looked over before his stellar age-36 season.”

#34 Jason Hammel (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
30	139.1	6.20	3.10	40.1 %	4.97	4.93	4.56	0.4	0.7

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $7.4
Real Total: $14.8

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $6.0
Fake Total: $11.9

Representative Comment
“Who is Jason Hammel?”

#35 Fernando Rodney (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
36	66.2	11.07	4.86	50.6 %	3.38	2.84	3.11	0.7	1.3

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $7.4
Real Total: $14.7

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $5.4
Fake Total: $5.4

Representative Comment
“All of these ‘proven closers’ are going to end up way overpaid like they always do. I fear there will need to be another few Brandon Leagues before people start to learn their lesson.”

#36 Paul Maholm (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
31	153.0	6.18	2.76	51.3 %	4.41	4.24	3.89	0.2	0.7

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $7.1
Real Total: $14.2

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $6.0
Fake Total: $12.1

Representative Comment
“He’s an average-ish pitcher on the wrong side of 30 who can give you a reliable 150-180 innings. That likely translates into about 3-4 WAR over the next three years.”

#37 Gavin Floyd (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
30	24.1	9.25	4.44	50.0 %	5.18	4.61	3.60	0.0	0.2

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $6.9
Real Total: $13.7

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $5.9
Fake Total: $11.8

Representative Comment
“He’ll be a late sign. If he seems ready for April/May start, someone will offer him one year plus a vesting option.”

#38 Chris Young (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
29	375	9.6 %	24.8 %	.200	.280	.379	.289	82	-6.7	-1.5	0.5

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $6.8
Real Total: $13.6

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $5.7
Fake Total: $11.5

Percent of respondents who believe Oakland will exercise $11M option on Young: 6%.

Representative Comment
“I’m a little upset. My three-month disc-golf win streak ended today when I made a poor effort on an easy putt on 18 because I thought I’d already lost, but that putt would have actually tied it and forced a playoff. Problem is that I didn’t know the score, which is a rookie mistake, and the type that I can’t afford to be making. I think Chris Young could be a decent part-timer in a better hitting environment. I don’t think he’ll get more than a year, though.”

#39 David Murphy (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
31	476	7.8 %	12.4 %	.220	.282	.374	.289	73	-16.6	4.8	0.4

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $6.4
Real Total: $12.7

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $5.3
Fake Total: $10.7

Representative Comment
“His overall profile remains pretty constant, and I believe that his performance [will] more closely resemble that from 2008 to 2012 than 2013.”

#40 David DeJesus (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
33	439	8.9 %	18.0 %	.251	.327	.402	.323	102	1.8	3.6	2.0

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $6.2
Real Total: $12.5

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $5.8
Fake Total: $11.6

Percent of respondents who believe Rays will exercise $6.5M option: 57%.

Representative Comment
“I think most teams would rather take a chance on one of their pre-arbitration outfielders than pay fair value for an aging outfielder with a league average bat.”

#41 Jesse Crain (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
31	36.2	11.29	2.70	34.8 %	0.74	1.52	2.94	2.0	1.9

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $6.0
Real Total: $11.9

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $5.1
Fake Total: $10.3

Representative Comment
“Shoulder issues at the end of 2013 will kill his market.”

#42 Nate McLouth (OF)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
31	593	8.9 %	14.5 %	.258	.329	.399	.323	100	5.9	-2.2	2.5

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $5.9
Real Total: $11.9

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $4.8
Fake Total: $9.5

Representative Comment
“Some GM will likely offer two years, maybe even Duquette; I would prefer one-year with a team option.”

#43 Edward Mujica (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
29	64.2	6.40	0.70	45.2 %	2.78	3.71	3.53	1.4	0.0

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $5.7
Real Total: $11.5

Fake Years: 2
Fake AAV: $3.9
Fake Total: $7.9

Representative Comment
“I’m a little skeptical of Mujica without Molina. He was pretty average in all of his stops before St. Louis, and that included some pretty pitcher-friendly parks, so I’m not sure if Molina is the difference or not — and I’m not sure I want to pay to find out.”

#44 Mark Ellis (2B)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
36	480	5.4 %	15.4 %	.270	.323	.351	.300	92	-4.6	7.0	1.8

Real Years: 2
Real AAV: $5.5
Real Total: $10.9

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $4.7
Fake Total: $4.7

Ellis and the Dodgers have a mutual option for $5.75M. Who will exercise it?
Both parties: 36%.
Just Ellis: 40%.
Just Dodgers: 19%.
Neither: 5%.

Representative Comment
“Depends a lot on what the Cano situation is. I know the Dodgers are flush with cash, but $5.75M might be steep for a backup second baseman. They probably won’t exercise it if they can get Cano, but otherwise they will.”

#45 Bartolo Colon (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
40	190.1	5.53	1.37	41.5 %	2.65	3.23	3.95	5.7	3.9

Real Years: 1
Real AAV: $8.3
Real Total: $8.3

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $7.4
Fake Total: $7.4

Representative Comment
“Considering his success, I think he’ll earn a slight raise. However, given his age, I don’t think it’s likely that he receives multiple years anymore. Going year by year at this point is likely… the best option.”

#46 A.J. Pierzynski (C)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
36	529	2.1 %	14.4 %	.272	.297	.425	.313	90	-9.1	6.6	1.6

Real Years: 1
Real AAV: $7.6
Real Total: $7.6

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $6.1
Fake Total: $6.1

Representative Comment
“[Removed by Administrator.]”

#47 Roberto Hernandez (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
32	151.0	6.74	2.26	53.2 %	4.89	4.63	3.60	-0.1	0.2

Real Years: 1
Real AAV: $3.6
Real Total: $3.6

Fake Years: 1
Fake AAV: $2.6
Fake Total: $2.6

Representative Comment
“If I’m a GM, I probably have someone at Triple-A who can do the thing that this guy does.”