FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 55 Free Agents
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series — which competition, barring some unforeseen circumstance, is likely to end today. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.
Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below.
In terms of how the projected contract values below are likely to relate to reality, a comparison between last year’s crowdsourced estimates and the actual contracts received reveals that the crowd typically missed by 37% on overall contract value and is most likely to underestimate the overall contract figures of the most high-profile free agents. It’s not unreasonable, in other words, to expect that Hanley Ramirez will receive more than the 5 years and $90 million he’s projected to receive. Of note, however, is that most of last year’s top free agents were hitters, while Max Scherzer and Jon Lester are the most formidable names among this year’s free-agent class. Whether this same principle of underestimating the contracts received by top free agents applies to pitchers, as well — for whom length of contract is an issue, given the possibility of injury — is a question that remains.
Note that players are ranked in terms of total median projected contract value. A spreadsheet containing the results is available here. Statistics are from 2014. Offensive and defensive value (denoted as Off and Def, respectively) are expressed relative to league average. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. One can read more about both metrics here.
#1 Max Scherzer (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 29 | 220.1 | 10.29 | 2.57 | 36.7 % | 3.15 | 2.85 | 3.12 | 5.3 | 5.6 |
Median Years: 7
Median AAV: $24 million
Total: 7 years, $168 million
Average Years: 6.5
Average AAV: $23.6 million
Total: 6.5 years, $153.8 million
Will the Tigers extend Scherzer a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 99%. No: 1%.
Will Scherzer accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.
#2 Jon Lester (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 30 | 219.2 | 9.01 | 1.97 | 42.4 % | 2.46 | 2.80 | 3.10 | 5.8 | 6.1 |
Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $22 million
Total: 6 years, $132 million
Average Years: 6.0
Average AAV: $21.5 million
Total: 6.0 years, $128.1 million
What are the chances Lester is re-signed by the Red Sox, with which franchise he spent the majority of his career, do you think?
Median guess: 30%.
#3 Hanley Ramirez (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 30 | 512 | 10.9 % | 16.4 % | .283 | .369 | .448 | .362 | 135 | 21.8 | -6.1 | 3.4 |
Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $18 million
Total: 5 years, $90 million
Average Years: 5.0
Average AAV: $17.5 million
Total: 5.0 years, $86.9 million
Will the Dodgers extend Ramirez a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 97%. No: 3%.
Will Ramirez accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 98%. Yes: 2%.
#4 James Shields (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 32 | 227.0 | 7.14 | 1.74 | 45.2 % | 3.21 | 3.59 | 3.56 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $18 million
Total: 5 years, $90 million
Average Years: 4.7
Average AAV: $18.3 million
Total: 4.7 years,$86.0 million
Will the Royals extend Shields a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 98%. No: 2%.
Will Shields accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.
#5 Pablo Sandoval (3B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 27 | 638 | 6.1 % | 13.3 % | .279 | .324 | .415 | .323 | 111 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 |
Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $16 million
Total: 5 years, $80 million
Average Years: 5.0
Average AAV: $15.9 million
Total: 5.0 years, $79.0 million
Will the Giants extend Sandoval a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 96%. No: 4%.
Will Sandoval accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 96%. Yes: 4%.
There are multiple third-base free-agent options this offseason. Which of the following will record the highest WAR between now and his retirement?
Pablo Sandoval: 48%.
Hanley Ramirez: 34%.
Chase Headley: 18%.
#6 Russell Martin (C)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 31 | 460 | 12.8 % | 17.0 % | .290 | .402 | .430 | .370 | 140 | 19.4 | 14.9 | 5.3 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: 4 years, $56 million
Average Years: 3.6
Average AAV: $14.0 million
Total: 3.6 years, $51.0 million
Will Pittsburgh extend Martin a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 86%. No: 14%.
Will Martin accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 92%. Yes: 8%.
#7 Chase Headley (3B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 30 | 531 | 9.6 % | 23.0 % | .243 | .328 | .372 | .316 | 103 | 2.1 | 21.6 | 4.4 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: 4 years, $56 million
Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $13.8 million
Total: 3.7 years, $50.8 million
Headley is the same age as Hanley Ramirez and plays (mostly) the same position and projected to record a better WAR per 600 plate appearance than Ramirez in 2015. What’s the probability he receives a larger contract than Ramirez?
Median Guess: 10%.
#8 Melky Cabrera (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 29 | 621 | 6.9 % | 10.8 % | .301 | .351 | .458 | .354 | 125 | 16.0 | -12.1 | 2.6 |
Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: 4 years, $52 million
Average Years: 3.5
Average AAV: $13.4 million
Total: 3.5 years, $47.3 million
It’s been reported that the Blue Jays plan to extend a qualifying offer (worth about $15.3M) to Cabrera. Will he accept it?
No: 76%. Yes: 24%.
#9 Victor Martinez (C/DH)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 35 | 641 | 10.9 % | 6.6 % | .335 | .409 | .565 | .411 | 166 | 40.7 | -21.2 | 4.4 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: 3 years, $45 million
Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $15.7 million
Total: 3.2 years, $49.4 million
Will the Tigers extend Martinez a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 98%. No: 2%.
Will Martinez accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 90%. Yes: 10%.
#10 Nelson Cruz (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 33 | 678 | 8.1 % | 20.6 % | .271 | .333 | .525 | .370 | 137 | 24.6 | -11.2 | 3.9 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: 3 years, $45 million
Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $14.8 million
Total: 3.0 years, $44.9 million
Will the Orioles extend Cruz a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 92%. No: 8%.
Will Cruz accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 87%. Yes: 13%.
#11 Ervin Santana (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 31 | 196.0 | 8.22 | 2.89 | 42.7 % | 3.95 | 3.39 | 3.47 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: 3 years, $39 million
Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $13.5 million
Total: 3.2 years, $43.6 million
Will the Atlanta Baseball Club extend Santana a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 70%. No: 30%.
Will Santana accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 78%. Yes: 22%.
#12 Francisco Liriano (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 30 | 162.1 | 9.70 | 4.49 | 54.4 % | 3.38 | 3.59 | 3.40 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: 3 years, $36 million
Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $12.9 million
Total: 3.2 years, $40.8 million
Will the Pirates extend Liriano a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
No: 61%. Yes: 39%.
Will Liriano accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 67%. Yes: 33%.
#13 Brandon McCarthy (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 30 | 200.0 | 7.88 | 1.49 | 52.6 % | 4.05 | 3.55 | 2.87 | 1.7 | 3.0 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: 3 years, $36 million
Average Years: 3.1
Average AAV: $12.5 million
Total: 3.1 years, $38.3 million
#14 Nick Markakis (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 30 | 710 | 8.7 % | 11.8 % | .276 | .342 | .386 | .325 | 106 | 2.1 | -2.5 | 2.5 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: 3 years, $33 million
Average Years: 3.4
Average AAV: $11.8 million
Total: 3.4 years, $39.8 million
Markakis and the Orioles have a $17.5M mutual option for 2015 with a $2.0M buyout. What will happen?
Markakis Exercises, Orioles Decline: 73%.
Both Decline: 18%.
Orioles Exercise, Markakis Declines: 5%.
Both Exercise: 4%.
#15 Asdrubal Cabrera (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 28 | 616 | 8.0 % | 17.5 % | .241 | .307 | .387 | .308 | 97 | 0.7 | -4.1 | 1.8 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: 3 years, $33 million
Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $11.2 million
Total: 3.2 years, $35.2 million
At what position will Cabrera be utilized?
Predominantly SS: 40%.
Both SS and 2B: 31%.
Predominantly 2B: 29%.
#16 Colby Rasmus (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 27 | 376 | 7.7 % | 33.0 % | .225 | .287 | .448 | .321 | 103 | 2.2 | -8.8 | 0.6 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 3 years, $30 million
Average Years: 2.6
Average AAV: $10.0 million
Total: 2.6 years, $25.6 million
#17 David Robertson (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 29 | 64.1 | 13.43 | 3.22 | 44.2 % | 3.08 | 2.68 | 2.13 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 3 years, $30 million
Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $10.7 million
Total: 3.2 years, $34.1 million
#18 Jed Lowrie (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 30 | 566 | 9.0 % | 14.0 % | .249 | .321 | .355 | .300 | 93 | -7.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 3 years, $30 million
Average Years: 2.7
Average AAV: $9.6 million
Total: 2.7 years, $25.6 million
#19 Jason Hammel (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 31 | 176.1 | 8.06 | 2.25 | 39.7 % | 3.47 | 3.92 | 3.57 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: 3 years, $27 million
Average Years: 2.6
Average AAV: $9.6 million
Total: 2.6 years, $24.8 million
#20 Jake Peavy (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 33 | 202.2 | 7.02 | 2.80 | 38.5 % | 3.73 | 4.11 | 4.18 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: 2 years, $24 million
Average Years: 2.4
Average AAV: $12.5 million
Total: 2.4 years, $29.4 million
#21 Andrew Miller (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 29 | 62.1 | 14.87 | 2.45 | 46.9 % | 2.02 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: 3 years, $24 million
Average Years: 3.1
Average AAV: $8.4 million
Total: 3.1 years, $26.0 million
Not for nothing, will Andrew Miller be signed as a closer?
No: 62%. Yes: 38%.
#22 Aramis Ramirez (3B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 36 | 531 | 4.0 % | 14.1 % | .285 | .330 | .427 | .334 | 109 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 2 years, $20 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $12.4 million
Total: 2.0 years, $24.6 million
Ramirez and the Brewers have a $14.0M mutual option for 2015 with a $4.0M buyout. What will happen?
Both Decline, But Ramirez Signs Two-Year Deal: 31%.
Brewers Exercise, Ramirez Declines: 28%.
Both Exercise: 22%.
Ramirez Exercises, Brewers Decline: 16%.
Both Decline: 3%.
#23 Adam LaRoche (1B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 34 | 586 | 14.0 % | 18.4 % | .259 | .362 | .455 | .356 | 127 | 12.5 | -15.4 | 1.6 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 2 years, $20 million
Average Years: 2.1
Average AAV: $10.8 million
Total: 2.1 years, $22.8 million
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 33 | 521 | 4.4 % | 17.9 % | .280 | .311 | .398 | .309 | 92 | -4.4 | -10.9 | 0.2 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 2 years, $20 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $9.6 million
Total: 2.0 years, $18.9 million
The Rangers hold a $13.5M option (with a $1M buyout) on Rios’s contract. Will they exercise it?
No: 91%. Yes: 9%.
#25 Billy Butler (1B/DH)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 28 | 603 | 6.8 % | 15.9 % | .271 | .323 | .379 | .311 | 97 | -7.5 | -14.5 | -0.3 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: 2 years, $18 million
Average Years: 2.5
Average AAV: $9.4 million
Total: 2.5 years, $23.3 million
The Royals hold a $12.5M option (with a $1M buyout) on Butler for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 67%. Yes: 33%.
#26 Michael Cuddyer (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 35 | 205 | 6.8 % | 14.6 % | .332 | .376 | .579 | .414 | 151 | 12.9 | -5.2 | 1.5 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: 2 years, $18 million
Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $9.3 million
Total: 1.8 years, $16.5 million
#27 Edinson Volquez (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 30 | 192.2 | 6.54 | 3.32 | 50.4 % | 3.04 | 4.15 | 4.20 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: 2 years, $16 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $8.4 million
Total: 2.0 years, $16.8 million
#28 Hiroki Kuroda (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 39 | 199.0 | 6.60 | 1.58 | 46.9 % | 3.71 | 3.60 | 3.54 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: 1 year, $15 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $14.6 million
Total: 1.2 years, $17.6 million
Will the Yankees extend Kuroda a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 82%. No: 18%.
Will Kuroda accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
Yes: 60%. No: 40%.
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 32 | 549 | 7.8 % | 8.9 % | .285 | .349 | .360 | .320 | 104 | -7.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 2 years, $14 million
Average Years: 2.5
Average AAV: $7.4 million
Total: 2.5 years, $18.3 million
Were you aware that Aoki made so little (just $4.0M plus incentives over three years) from his first MLB contract?
Yes: 35%. No: 38%. No, that’s shocking: 27%.
#30 Rafael Soriano (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 34 | 62.0 | 8.56 | 2.76 | 31.6 % | 3.19 | 3.08 | 3.92 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 2 years, $14 million
Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $7.5 million
Total: 1.8 years, $13.8 million
The Nationals hold a $14M option on Soriano’s contract for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 95%. Yes: 5%.
#31 Sergio Romo (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 31 | 58.0 | 9.16 | 1.86 | 36.8 % | 3.72 | 3.94 | 3.40 | 0.1 | -0.3 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 2 years, $12 million
Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: 1.9 years, $11.2 million
#32 Rickie Weeks (2B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 31 | 286 | 8.7 % | 25.5 % | .274 | .357 | .452 | .359 | 127 | 9.1 | -7.0 | 1.2 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 2 years, $12 million
Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $6.3 million
Total: 1.7 years, $10.9 million
Milwaukee holds an $11.5M option (no buyout) on Weeks’ contract for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 95%. Yes: 5%.
#33 A.J. Burnett (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 37 | 213.2 | 8.00 | 4.04 | 50.9 % | 4.59 | 4.14 | 3.95 | -0.5 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 1 year, $10 million
Average Years: 1.1
Average AAV: $10.7 million
Total: 1.1 years, $12.3 million
Burnett’s contract features a mutual option for $15M (with a $1M buyout) and/or player option for $12.8M. What will happen?
The Phillies decline the mutual option, but Burnett exercises the player option: 66%.
Burnett opts out entirely, choosing to become a free agent: 21%.
Both the Phillies and Burnett exercise the mutual option: 13%.
#34 Torii Hunter (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 38 | 586 | 3.9 % | 15.2 % | .286 | .319 | .446 | .335 | 113 | 8.9 | -24.7 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 1 year, $10 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $9.7 million
Total: 1.2 years, $11.7 million
#35 Emilio Bonifacio (2B/OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 29 | 426 | 6.1 % | 20.0 % | .259 | .305 | .345 | .289 | 81 | -4.3 | 10.8 | 2.1 |
Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 2 years, $10 million
Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $5.3 million
Total: 2.0 years, $10.7 million
#36 Justin Masterson (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 29 | 128.2 | 8.11 | 4.83 | 58.2 % | 5.88 | 4.50 | 4.08 | -1.8 | 0.3 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: 1 year, $9 million
Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $9.5 million
Total: 1.8 years, $17.2 million
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 33 | 186.0 | 7.02 | 1.74 | 41.5 % | 4.02 | 4.09 | 3.70 | -0.3 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: 1 year, $8 million
Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $8.6 million
Total: 1.5 years, $12.8 million
For pitching 180 innings in 2014, Haren earned a player option for 2015 worth $10M. Will he exercise it?
Yes: 83%. No: 17%.
#38 Koji Uehara (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 39 | 64.1 | 11.19 | 1.12 | 32.3 % | 2.52 | 3.09 | 2.41 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: 1 year, $8 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $8.5 million
Total: 1.4 years, $11.9 million
#39 Stephen Drew (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 31 | 300 | 9.0 % | 25.0 % | .162 | .237 | .299 | .238 | 44 | -21.6 | 1.5 | -1.1 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 1 year, $7 million
Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $7.2 million
Total: 1.5 years, $10.4 million
#40 Michael Morse (1B/OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 32 | 482 | 6.4 % | 25.1 % | .279 | .336 | .475 | .355 | 133 | 12.8 | -18.0 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 1 year, $7 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.0 million
Total: 1.4 years, $10.0 million
#41 Brett Anderson (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 26 | 43.1 | 6.02 | 2.70 | 61.0 % | 2.91 | 2.99 | 3.55 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 1 year, $7 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.1 million
Total: 1.4 years, $10.0 million
The Rockies hold a $12.0M option (with a $1.5M buyout) on Anderson for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 85%. Yes: 15%.
#42 Ryan Vogelsong (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 36 | 184.2 | 7.36 | 2.83 | 38.4 % | 4.00 | 3.85 | 3.96 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 1 year, $7 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $6.8 million
Total: 1.4 years, $9.6 million
#43 Aaron Harang (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 36 | 204.1 | 7.09 | 3.13 | 39.4 % | 3.57 | 3.57 | 4.03 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 1 year, $6 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $6.6 million
Total: 1.4 years, $9.4 million
#44 Brandon Morrow (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 29 | 33.1 | 8.10 | 4.86 | 50.5 % | 5.67 | 3.73 | 4.06 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 1 year, $6 million
Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $6.7 million
Total: 1.3 years, $9.0 million
Toronto holds a $10M option ($1M buyout) on Morrow’s contract for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 77%. Yes: 23%.
#45 Kendrys Morales (1B/DH)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 31 | 401 | 6.7 % | 17.0 % | .218 | .274 | .338 | .271 | 72 | -17.2 | -11.5 | -1.7 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 1 year, $6 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $6.1 million
Total: 1.2 years, $7.1 million
The Seattle front office has exhibited a peculiar fascination with Morales. Will they sign him for 2015 (and perhaps beyond), as well?
Yes: 62%. No: 38%.
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 32 | 68.0 | 9.66 | 2.38 | 43.9 % | 3.04 | 4.50 | 2.91 | 1.3 | -0.6 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million
Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $5.7 million
Total: 1.5 years, $8.7 million
#47 Gavin Floyd (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 31 | 54.1 | 7.45 | 2.15 | 49.4 % | 2.65 | 3.79 | 3.47 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $6.0 million
Total: 1.4 years, $8.3 million
#48 Chris Young (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 30 | 366 | 8.7 % | 19.1 % | .222 | .299 | .385 | .303 | 95 | -0.2 | -7.4 | 0.4 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million
Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $5.8 million
Total: 1.4 years, $8.1 million
#49 Josh Johnson (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 29 | 81.1 | 9.18 | 3.32 | 45.1 % | 6.20 | 4.62 | 3.58 | -1.2 | 0.6 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $5.4 million
Total: 1.2 years, $6.5 million
The Padres hold a $4M option on Johnson for 2015. Will they exercise it?
Yes: 83%. No: 17%.
#50 Chris Young (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 35 | 165.0 | 5.89 | 3.27 | 22.3 % | 3.65 | 5.02 | 5.19 | 2.4 | 0.2 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $5.2 million
Total: 1.2 years, $6.4 million
#51 Chad Billingsley (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 28 | 12.0 | 4.50 | 3.75 | 41.7 % | 3.00 | 4.38 | 4.66 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $5.2 million
Total: 1.2 years, $6.0 million
The Dodgers hold a $14M option (with a $3M buyout) on Billingsley for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 97%. Yes: 3%.
Briefly, explain how in the hell you reached any of these conclusions about a player who hasn’t pitched in over a year.
“Josh Johnson comparable.”
“Rough guess of a short-term bounce-back contract.”
“Consulted with my 7-year-old son.”
#52 Ichiro Suzuki (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 40 | 385 | 5.5 % | 17.7 % | .284 | .324 | .340 | .296 | 86 | -3.6 | -5.5 | 0.4 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million
Average Years: 1.1
Average AAV: $4.7 million
Total: 1.1 years, $5.2 million
#53 Mark Reynolds (1B/3B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 30 | 433 | 10.9 % | 28.2 % | .196 | .287 | .394 | .302 | 87 | -5.0 | 7.1 | 1.6 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: 1 year, $4 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.8 million
Total: 1.2 years, $5.8 million
#54 Chris Capuano (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 35 | 97.1 | 7.77 | 3.14 | 39.5 % | 4.35 | 3.91 | 3.89 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: 1 year, $4 million
Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.5 million
Total: 1.2 years, $5.2 million
Dave Cameron probably thinks Kyle Kendrick should receive a ballot instead of Capuano. Which of the pair (Capuano or Kendrick) will get a bigger contract?
Kendrick: 67%. Capuano: 33%.
#55 Delmon Young (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
| 28 | 255 | 3.9 % | 20.0 % | .302 | .337 | .442 | .345 | 120 | 5.9 | -5.6 | 0.9 |
Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $3 million
Total: 1 year, $3 million
Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $3.7 million
Total: 1.3 years, $4.8 million
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
There was no qualifying offer vote for Robertson? There’s been a lot of speculation that he could be offered one.
It would be interesting to see what the 90th-percentile crowd-source contract values are. I think this would more accurately reflect the of the free agent market, particularly with the top players.
Ugh. HTML fail.
“Winner’s Curse of the free agent market”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner's_curse
I like that idea a lot, given the way auctions work. Runs the risk of picking up some joke/accidental answers, but might provide a more accurate guess, at least for the high-end free agents.
Great point the FA goes to the front office that values him the highest. Not the median or AVG of front office valuations. Please show us something like the 90th percentile. I would suspect the lower free agents have less volatility in there answers.
It appears no-one learned the lesson from last year. I mean who seriously thinks Scherzer is going to only get $160M and Lester is only going to get $130M? Those are way too low. We underestimated by 30% last year. I think the lower ranked guys seem reasonable, but the top guys are very very low.
I Agree. Wouldn’t the Sox and several other teams be willing to sign Lester to those terms tonight the instant the signing period begins?
correction on my post: the signing period doesn’t begin tonight.
Didn’t the Sox already have a chance to sign Lester?
Yes, and if they had a time machine, they would probably go back in time and sign him, knowing what they know now.
huh? you think they weren’t aware that he’d get far more on the open market than the lowball offers they made to him? seems like that ship has sailed…. not to mention that they’d look pretty silly paying top dollar for Lester now.
Yes, of course they weren’t aware. When negotiating last offseason, they didn’t have a crystal ball to see that he would have his best season in years in 2014. They presumably were aware of the possibility that his cost would go up, just as they were aware of the possibility that his cost would go down because of an injury or a season like 2012.
If they are smart, they won’t care about looking silly when it comes to making an offer now that is much bigger than the one last year.
Yeah. These are way too low. Scherzer turned down 144 over 6. If 16 million was the difference, the Tigers would have easily signed him.
165 is a lot for a pitcher.
The only guys who are around that mark: Verlander, King felix and clayton kershaw. There is no precedent for giving a guy like Scherzer 200 mil. 165 sounds about right.
Lester is probably just as good and will be paid less. Steamer has them almost equal next year.
Last year was different because it was Cano. He is a bigger name, a consistent 6 war hitter coming off many seasons of greatness. No offense to Scherzer but he has only been great for 2 years.
I think Scherzer gets Felix money. He isn’t as good, but he is a free agent and there is inflation. 7/$180ish seems right
People keep saying things like this w/o saying who the team is that’s going to pony up. People like to point out the Ellsburys and Choos, but for every one of those, there is a Drew, Morales, or Cruz. It’s not so easy.
Who’s going to write a big check to Scherzer?
165 does sound about right. But when predicting FA mega-contracts, a good rule of thumb is to take what sounds about right and add $25 million to it.
I have to disagree this year in particular. There is such a wealth of pitching, that GMs will likely balk at $180-200 million for Scherzer when they can get Shields or Lester for less. That’s not to mention that there is plenty of mid-rotation talent in this season’s FA class. I think pitching will go at about the prices predicted here. It’s the offensive contracts that will explode, given the dearth of production we’ve seen over the last few years. Steroid crackdowns, expanding strike zones, and the increasing velocity of FBs have clearly hurt offense and the game has shifted in favor of pitchers. Thus, they’re not quite as valuable as they used to be.
The Yankees, for instance, we able to pick up pieces off the scrap heap this year that proved to be dominant and serviceable pitchers. There are so many arms of all quality levels on the market that the prices are not very likely to skyrocket. Most teams have arms in-house that can slot into their rotations, but less offensive talent in the system. It’s not to say this is a golden rule for all scenarios, but moreso a shift in the balance that may not be so dramatic yet is still noticeable league-wide.
I’d be wary of Lester and Scherzer. You never know what you’re going to get in a pitcher’s 30s. Shields is risky beyond 4 years, too. I’d be looking to maximize returns with a cobbling of Kuroda, Santana, Haren, and other mid-level options.
I guess we’ll find out in the next few months. All it takes is one team/GM…
If multiple teams are scared away by Scherzer’s cost and want to go for Lester and Shields instead, their respective prices will go up and blow past the 6/132 and 5/90 predicted by the crowdsourcing.
Texas certainly learned the lesson from last year.
If Ben Cherington can get Jon Lester back on these terms, he should get down on his knees and thank God.
I really love this project, but I enjoyed last year’s version more where we projected what we would give, what we thought they would give, and then comments.
I think I agree with you, Blake. I think the problem with having just one estimate per user is that it gets muddled in terms of are we actually saying what we think they SHOULD get or WILL get?
We all know we are trying to say what it WILL be, but I think some bias towards more conservative/efficient contracts creeps in and makes the estimates almost universally too low.
Luke Gregerson should be on here!
Nice use of “Atlanta baseball club”
With the new CBA looming after the ’16 season, the top five should negotiate an opt-out after the first two years. MLBPA will probably force the lux tax line much higher with media revenues growing.
Can I have the names of people who don’t think M. Scherzer or H. Ramirez will get a qualifying offer or of those who think they’ll take the offer?
I want to gamble with these people, and maybe sell them some beachfront property.
Pretty much anyone in the top ten who can be given a qualifying offer will be given one.
Pretty much anyone in the top ten will probably reject it (I think anyone outside the top five should probably accept a qualifying offer, their contract value is low enough that the existence of a qualifying offer makes it unlikely they’ll do all that much better, but experience shows people reject qualifying offers).
Next year, I’ll make sure to include one further question, inquiring as to the sobriety of the respondent. That should make everything clear.
I’m pretty confident that this will be the year when at least one qualifying offer is accepted. Some player will learn the Morales/Drew lesson.
MGL would of course say that game theory will take care of this because teams will anticipate increased willingness to take QOs and make QOs to fewer marginal players. I’m not so sure…..
I agree that someone will take one of the qualifying offers, I just suspect it won’t be anyone in the top 10 and I think Martin, Cabrera, Martinez, and Cruz will all probably get one and would all probably be better off if they did. (One “I suspect” and one “probably” applied to four individual cases, hmm, I guess I wouldn’d be all that surprised to be wrong on one of those eight things.)
Games theory isn’t all that applicable as the usual (simple) calculation for a minmax solution only gives an optimal solution if the game is zero sum and the other player is using an optimal strategy.
Baseball contracts aren’t zero sum since players and teams put different values on different terms (players want security and guaranteed income most, teams seem to want low AAV).
It is also possible that players are or were irrationally likely to reject a qualifying offer.
At risk of sounding even more like MGL, I think you’re defining game theory narrowly. See, e.g., the Wikipedia entry that explains how it applies to a variety of decision making situations involving multiple actors, though I acknowledge the classic/original game theory was Von Neumann’s analysis of zero sum games with rational actors. But even the classic prisoners’ dilemma isn’t zero sum, but is clearly a topic of game theory.
The modern definition applies so broadly that it really encompasses any situation where you have multiple actors whose decisions affect each other and for whom you can describe a set of values for each potential outcome. The fun part of it is thinking about what the other party will do, perhaps best described by the Sicilian in The Princess Bride!
Anyway, my point is simply that GMs in the part profited from knowing that players whose real value was somewhat below the QO level were always going to be optimistic and decline it. In fact, the failure of any player to accept a QO in the past means GMs were collectively too cautious and should have extended more QOs to get more draft picks.
This year they have to think about how much the Drew/Morales experience will reduce players/agent optimism and adjust their strategy, and if they overestimate that factor, they might be so cautious with QOs that we again see none accepted.
The problem with a game theory approach, to me, is that the decision space isn’t smooth. Some teams will be more willing to punt the pick to sign a QO guy in general (if they have deep farm systems and/or are close to deep post-season contention), but furthermore will only be willing to do so for certain skill sets. The ‘rationality’ of declining a QO depends upon estimating the available market, which can change quite substantially year to year and guy to guy. Game theory works for a comparatively smooth space, but one as irregular as “who’ll go multi on me?” doesn’t map well. Historical trends and comparable players don’t really cast enough light.
Then there is the fact that most guys going free agent are looking for multi-year situations due to a) larger total payout, b) GUARANTEE of future money, c) probability of playing time due to contract, d) uncertainty of injury, and e) uncertainty of variable performance including age-related decline. A player who takes a QO, when it happens, is somebody who is strongly advised that he has no shot at a multi-year deal. As in not ‘probably won’t get one’ but’ ‘absolutely no way.’ Historically, players only get one, maybe two shots at free agency where a multi-year deal is a possibility. Passing that up for good one year money has a significant possibility of never again being in a multi-year potential situation. That’s a lot to pass up.
The only situation it has seemed to me rational for a player to accept a QO is in a pillow contract situation where a guy needs to reestablish value. A guy who has been good but tanks in his walk year, or somebody who had a fantastic partial season but significant injury woes plus now having a draft pick loss attached due to a QO. Agents have been so used to having the market overpay for serviceable guys that the pick cost wasn’t fully priced in before this last year.
I also think that the market has been overpaying on number of years, and that a correction will happen before long on that aspect. Stephen Drew on a one year might have been worth the pick, but on a multi-year with his injury history wasn’t; this kind of valuation will need some history before it begins to be handicapped well. Because the market has been willing to sign thick DHs to eight and ten years, and starting pitchers to seven plus years (madness, sheer madness) it has been a rational expectation that serviceable guys can get three or four. When the years for the big names come back down a bit after enough money is lost by teams, the ‘rational’ part will shift more heavily into taking a thick QO. Now matter how good a guy like Lester or Scherzer looks showing up now, Lackey, Verlander, and Lincecum looked better when they got long money. How well did those work out? About as well as ever, going back over closing in on forty years of free agency. Jason Vargas just pitched in the World Series, and pretty well. Peavy was a late season pick-up, and threw well in most of the post-season. That’s a lot better than holding onto Barry Zito’s contract.
The flaw to me in the QO arrangement at present is that players can have it hung on them sequentially over several years: QO should only be applicable once. That gives the team a fair shot at signing a guy long-term if they think he’s worth it or getting a replacement option in the pipeline up to speed. Multi-year situations like with Ervin Santana seem and end-around on free agency. Extend-or-expend.
Lincecum was offered long money and declined, but the point remains the same. Pitchers on long contracts are going to lose teams a tone of money relative to performance over those contracts.
Suggest re-wording:
“What are the chances Lester is re-signed by the Red Sox, with which franchise he spent the majority of his career, do you think?”
Agreed.
“What are the chances the Red Sox, with whom he has spent most of his career, re-sign Lester?”
The “do you think” is implied in this type of survey.
Or could go with:
“What are the odds the Red Sox re-sign Lester, given that he has spent the majority of his career there?”
Always go with active voice if possible.
Not regular readers of Cistulli’s work, these two
Regular readers of Carson, these aren’t.
Maybe we could call #’s 11-20 the “QO Purgatory” group? Except Colby Rasmus, I doubt the Blue Jays would want to put up with him and his “issues” again.
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT YOU TAKE THAT BACK. STUPID INTERNET COMMENTERS DON’T KNOW NUTHIN
What I’ve been wondering is how much money and/or term has James Shields lost this postseason. I have to think that many GMs are going to think twice about offering Shields that extra year, or those extra couple mil.
He’ll be 33 in December, but the crowdsourcing here says he’ll get 5 years and $90 million, or $18m per season. I’m going with the under on both term and dollars.
I’ll bet he gets higher.
Roughly how accurate have these crowd guesses been in past years – higher/lower? Within 10%? 20%? Just curious.
It seems like, especially for the top guys, Fangraphs is usually pretty damn low.
Crowdsouring here has been fairly rational, and hence low because team signings have a long history of being _irrational_. If there’s a factor that can be counted on in the market it’s that some rich team will overpay for a ‘has been great till now’ guy. They shouldn’t. They lose money. They make the next guy and themselves too pay more. But reliably that has been the case for coming up on forty years. Sabathia, Verlander, Lackey, Zito. Mike Hampton. Hampton was better than Scherzer at his peak; short hill, long money. Or to put it another way, how large-money many contracts over five years have finished in the performance and in the money? It would be interesting to see THAT study, to actually quantify the ‘degree of fail’ if in fact these contracts _do_ consistently fail in aggregate: maybe they don’t. The part that’s hardest to price in is the opportunity cost of being committed to a diminished performance due to carrying a big contract guy who’s fallen off a lot. Even if the dollars might look close to level given compensation inflation, the opportunity cost of being locked into a replacement level (or far below) guy has to be factored in, and I don’t get the sense we’re there yet on that aspect.
The tier that’s hard to get a long-term handle on is the guys just back of the putative superstars. We can, and maybe should expect that somebody will overpay for Lester, ignoring several years of diminished performance to their cost. What’s hard to know is whether or not somebody will make the same bet at a lower index for Kyle Lohse.
Colby Rasmus at 3/30 for a guy who can’t really play center and was benched at the end of the season and had a .735 OPS? Shouldn’t he be more like a Nate McLouth comp at this point?
Rasmus is going to seek, and get, a “show me” contract, I bet. I wouldn’t give him 3/30, and he probably wouldn’t take it. Let’s see what you’ve got, young man.
The GM who gives Rasmus that contract should be immediately fired, the GM who gets Morse for only 7M on a 1 year deal should get an immediate contract extension.
Kinda bs that michael morse is ranked 10 spots below billy butler and even nori aoki. oh and one below stephen fucking drew. sure he is not a defensive player (he was acceptable at 1st this year though), but he hits way better than than those three knuckle heads (maybe even with nori aoki)