FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 55 Free Agents by Carson Cistulli October 29, 2014 Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series — which competition, barring some unforeseen circumstance, is likely to end today. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market. Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below. In terms of how the projected contract values below are likely to relate to reality, a comparison between last year’s crowdsourced estimates and the actual contracts received reveals that the crowd typically missed by 37% on overall contract value and is most likely to underestimate the overall contract figures of the most high-profile free agents. It’s not unreasonable, in other words, to expect that Hanley Ramirez will receive more than the 5 years and $90 million he’s projected to receive. Of note, however, is that most of last year’s top free agents were hitters, while Max Scherzer and Jon Lester are the most formidable names among this year’s free-agent class. Whether this same principle of underestimating the contracts received by top free agents applies to pitchers, as well — for whom length of contract is an issue, given the possibility of injury — is a question that remains. Note that players are ranked in terms of total median projected contract value. A spreadsheet containing the results is available here. Statistics are from 2014. Offensive and defensive value (denoted as Off and Def, respectively) are expressed relative to league average. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. One can read more about both metrics here. #1 Max Scherzer (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 29 220.1 10.29 2.57 36.7 % 3.15 2.85 3.12 5.3 5.6 Median Years: 7 Median AAV: $24 million Total: 7 years, $168 million Average Years: 6.5 Average AAV: $23.6 million Total: 6.5 years, $153.8 million Will the Tigers extend Scherzer a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? Yes: 99%. No: 1%. Will Scherzer accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 99%. Yes: 1%. #2 Jon Lester (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 30 219.2 9.01 1.97 42.4 % 2.46 2.80 3.10 5.8 6.1 Median Years: 6 Median AAV: $22 million Total: 6 years, $132 million Average Years: 6.0 Average AAV: $21.5 million Total: 6.0 years, $128.1 million What are the chances Lester is re-signed by the Red Sox, with which franchise he spent the majority of his career, do you think? Median guess: 30%. #3 Hanley Ramirez (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 30 512 10.9 % 16.4 % .283 .369 .448 .362 135 21.8 -6.1 3.4 Median Years: 5 Median AAV: $18 million Total: 5 years, $90 million Average Years: 5.0 Average AAV: $17.5 million Total: 5.0 years, $86.9 million Will the Dodgers extend Ramirez a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? Yes: 97%. No: 3%. Will Ramirez accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 98%. Yes: 2%. #4 James Shields (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 32 227.0 7.14 1.74 45.2 % 3.21 3.59 3.56 3.9 3.7 Median Years: 5 Median AAV: $18 million Total: 5 years, $90 million Average Years: 4.7 Average AAV: $18.3 million Total: 4.7 years,$86.0 million Will the Royals extend Shields a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? Yes: 98%. No: 2%. Will Shields accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 99%. Yes: 1%. #5 Pablo Sandoval (3B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 27 638 6.1 % 13.3 % .279 .324 .415 .323 111 3.3 5.3 3.0 Median Years: 5 Median AAV: $16 million Total: 5 years, $80 million Average Years: 5.0 Average AAV: $15.9 million Total: 5.0 years, $79.0 million Will the Giants extend Sandoval a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? Yes: 96%. No: 4%. Will Sandoval accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 96%. Yes: 4%. There are multiple third-base free-agent options this offseason. Which of the following will record the highest WAR between now and his retirement? Pablo Sandoval: 48%. Hanley Ramirez: 34%. Chase Headley: 18%. #6 Russell Martin (C) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 31 460 12.8 % 17.0 % .290 .402 .430 .370 140 19.4 14.9 5.3 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $14 million Total: 4 years, $56 million Average Years: 3.6 Average AAV: $14.0 million Total: 3.6 years, $51.0 million Will Pittsburgh extend Martin a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? Yes: 86%. No: 14%. Will Martin accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 92%. Yes: 8%. #7 Chase Headley (3B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 30 531 9.6 % 23.0 % .243 .328 .372 .316 103 2.1 21.6 4.4 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $14 million Total: 4 years, $56 million Average Years: 3.7 Average AAV: $13.8 million Total: 3.7 years, $50.8 million Headley is the same age as Hanley Ramirez and plays (mostly) the same position and projected to record a better WAR per 600 plate appearance than Ramirez in 2015. What’s the probability he receives a larger contract than Ramirez? Median Guess: 10%. #8 Melky Cabrera (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 29 621 6.9 % 10.8 % .301 .351 .458 .354 125 16.0 -12.1 2.6 Median Years: 4 Median AAV: $13 million Total: 4 years, $52 million Average Years: 3.5 Average AAV: $13.4 million Total: 3.5 years, $47.3 million It’s been reported that the Blue Jays plan to extend a qualifying offer (worth about $15.3M) to Cabrera. Will he accept it? No: 76%. Yes: 24%. #9 Victor Martinez (C/DH) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 35 641 10.9 % 6.6 % .335 .409 .565 .411 166 40.7 -21.2 4.4 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $15 million Total: 3 years, $45 million Average Years: 3.2 Average AAV: $15.7 million Total: 3.2 years, $49.4 million Will the Tigers extend Martinez a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? Yes: 98%. No: 2%. Will Martinez accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 90%. Yes: 10%. #10 Nelson Cruz (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 33 678 8.1 % 20.6 % .271 .333 .525 .370 137 24.6 -11.2 3.9 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $15 million Total: 3 years, $45 million Average Years: 3.0 Average AAV: $14.8 million Total: 3.0 years, $44.9 million Will the Orioles extend Cruz a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? Yes: 92%. No: 8%. Will Cruz accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 87%. Yes: 13%. #11 Ervin Santana (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 31 196.0 8.22 2.89 42.7 % 3.95 3.39 3.47 1.8 2.8 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $13 million Total: 3 years, $39 million Average Years: 3.2 Average AAV: $13.5 million Total: 3.2 years, $43.6 million Will the Atlanta Baseball Club extend Santana a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? Yes: 70%. No: 30%. Will Santana accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 78%. Yes: 22%. #12 Francisco Liriano (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 30 162.1 9.70 4.49 54.4 % 3.38 3.59 3.40 2.0 1.6 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $12 million Total: 3 years, $36 million Average Years: 3.2 Average AAV: $12.9 million Total: 3.2 years, $40.8 million Will the Pirates extend Liriano a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? No: 61%. Yes: 39%. Will Liriano accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? No: 67%. Yes: 33%. #13 Brandon McCarthy (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 30 200.0 7.88 1.49 52.6 % 4.05 3.55 2.87 1.7 3.0 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $12 million Total: 3 years, $36 million Average Years: 3.1 Average AAV: $12.5 million Total: 3.1 years, $38.3 million #14 Nick Markakis (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 30 710 8.7 % 11.8 % .276 .342 .386 .325 106 2.1 -2.5 2.5 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $11 million Total: 3 years, $33 million Average Years: 3.4 Average AAV: $11.8 million Total: 3.4 years, $39.8 million Markakis and the Orioles have a $17.5M mutual option for 2015 with a $2.0M buyout. What will happen? Markakis Exercises, Orioles Decline: 73%. Both Decline: 18%. Orioles Exercise, Markakis Declines: 5%. Both Exercise: 4%. #15 Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 28 616 8.0 % 17.5 % .241 .307 .387 .308 97 0.7 -4.1 1.8 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $11 million Total: 3 years, $33 million Average Years: 3.2 Average AAV: $11.2 million Total: 3.2 years, $35.2 million At what position will Cabrera be utilized? Predominantly SS: 40%. Both SS and 2B: 31%. Predominantly 2B: 29%. #16 Colby Rasmus (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 27 376 7.7 % 33.0 % .225 .287 .448 .321 103 2.2 -8.8 0.6 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $10 million Total: 3 years, $30 million Average Years: 2.6 Average AAV: $10.0 million Total: 2.6 years, $25.6 million #17 David Robertson (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 29 64.1 13.43 3.22 44.2 % 3.08 2.68 2.13 1.5 1.7 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $10 million Total: 3 years, $30 million Average Years: 3.2 Average AAV: $10.7 million Total: 3.2 years, $34.1 million #18 Jed Lowrie (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 30 566 9.0 % 14.0 % .249 .321 .355 .300 93 -7.5 6.0 1.9 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $10 million Total: 3 years, $30 million Average Years: 2.7 Average AAV: $9.6 million Total: 2.7 years, $25.6 million #19 Jason Hammel (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 31 176.1 8.06 2.25 39.7 % 3.47 3.92 3.57 3.1 1.7 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $9 million Total: 3 years, $27 million Average Years: 2.6 Average AAV: $9.6 million Total: 2.6 years, $24.8 million #20 Jake Peavy (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 33 202.2 7.02 2.80 38.5 % 3.73 4.11 4.18 2.7 1.9 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $12 million Total: 2 years, $24 million Average Years: 2.4 Average AAV: $12.5 million Total: 2.4 years, $29.4 million #21 Andrew Miller (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 29 62.1 14.87 2.45 46.9 % 2.02 1.51 1.58 2.0 2.3 Median Years: 3 Median AAV: $8 million Total: 3 years, $24 million Average Years: 3.1 Average AAV: $8.4 million Total: 3.1 years, $26.0 million Not for nothing, will Andrew Miller be signed as a closer? No: 62%. Yes: 38%. #22 Aramis Ramirez (3B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 36 531 4.0 % 14.1 % .285 .330 .427 .334 109 2.3 1.3 2.1 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $10 million Total: 2 years, $20 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $12.4 million Total: 2.0 years, $24.6 million Ramirez and the Brewers have a $14.0M mutual option for 2015 with a $4.0M buyout. What will happen? Both Decline, But Ramirez Signs Two-Year Deal: 31%. Brewers Exercise, Ramirez Declines: 28%. Both Exercise: 22%. Ramirez Exercises, Brewers Decline: 16%. Both Decline: 3%. #23 Adam LaRoche (1B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 34 586 14.0 % 18.4 % .259 .362 .455 .356 127 12.5 -15.4 1.6 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $10 million Total: 2 years, $20 million Average Years: 2.1 Average AAV: $10.8 million Total: 2.1 years, $22.8 million #24 Alex Rios (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 33 521 4.4 % 17.9 % .280 .311 .398 .309 92 -4.4 -10.9 0.2 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $10 million Total: 2 years, $20 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $9.6 million Total: 2.0 years, $18.9 million The Rangers hold a $13.5M option (with a $1M buyout) on Rios’s contract. Will they exercise it? No: 91%. Yes: 9%. #25 Billy Butler (1B/DH) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 28 603 6.8 % 15.9 % .271 .323 .379 .311 97 -7.5 -14.5 -0.3 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $9 million Total: 2 years, $18 million Average Years: 2.5 Average AAV: $9.4 million Total: 2.5 years, $23.3 million The Royals hold a $12.5M option (with a $1M buyout) on Butler for 2015. Will they exercise it? No: 67%. Yes: 33%. #26 Michael Cuddyer (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 35 205 6.8 % 14.6 % .332 .376 .579 .414 151 12.9 -5.2 1.5 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $9 million Total: 2 years, $18 million Average Years: 1.8 Average AAV: $9.3 million Total: 1.8 years, $16.5 million #27 Edinson Volquez (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 30 192.2 6.54 3.32 50.4 % 3.04 4.15 4.20 3.0 0.7 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $8 million Total: 2 years, $16 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $8.4 million Total: 2.0 years, $16.8 million #28 Hiroki Kuroda (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 39 199.0 6.60 1.58 46.9 % 3.71 3.60 3.54 2.8 3.5 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $15 million Total: 1 year, $15 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $14.6 million Total: 1.2 years, $17.6 million Will the Yankees extend Kuroda a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)? Yes: 82%. No: 18%. Will Kuroda accept the qualifying offer, if extended one? Yes: 60%. No: 40%. #29 Nori Aoki (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 32 549 7.8 % 8.9 % .285 .349 .360 .320 104 -7.7 0.2 1.1 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $7 million Total: 2 years, $14 million Average Years: 2.5 Average AAV: $7.4 million Total: 2.5 years, $18.3 million Were you aware that Aoki made so little (just $4.0M plus incentives over three years) from his first MLB contract? Yes: 35%. No: 38%. No, that’s shocking: 27%. #30 Rafael Soriano (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 34 62.0 8.56 2.76 31.6 % 3.19 3.08 3.92 0.7 0.7 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $7 million Total: 2 years, $14 million Average Years: 1.8 Average AAV: $7.5 million Total: 1.8 years, $13.8 million The Nationals hold a $14M option on Soriano’s contract for 2015. Will they exercise it? No: 95%. Yes: 5%. #31 Sergio Romo (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 31 58.0 9.16 1.86 36.8 % 3.72 3.94 3.40 0.1 -0.3 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: 2 years, $12 million Average Years: 1.9 Average AAV: $5.9 million Total: 1.9 years, $11.2 million #32 Rickie Weeks (2B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 31 286 8.7 % 25.5 % .274 .357 .452 .359 127 9.1 -7.0 1.2 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $6 million Total: 2 years, $12 million Average Years: 1.7 Average AAV: $6.3 million Total: 1.7 years, $10.9 million Milwaukee holds an $11.5M option (no buyout) on Weeks’ contract for 2015. Will they exercise it? No: 95%. Yes: 5%. #33 A.J. Burnett (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 37 213.2 8.00 4.04 50.9 % 4.59 4.14 3.95 -0.5 1.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $10 million Total: 1 year, $10 million Average Years: 1.1 Average AAV: $10.7 million Total: 1.1 years, $12.3 million Burnett’s contract features a mutual option for $15M (with a $1M buyout) and/or player option for $12.8M. What will happen? The Phillies decline the mutual option, but Burnett exercises the player option: 66%. Burnett opts out entirely, choosing to become a free agent: 21%. Both the Phillies and Burnett exercise the mutual option: 13%. #34 Torii Hunter (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 38 586 3.9 % 15.2 % .286 .319 .446 .335 113 8.9 -24.7 0.3 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $10 million Total: 1 year, $10 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $9.7 million Total: 1.2 years, $11.7 million #35 Emilio Bonifacio (2B/OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 29 426 6.1 % 20.0 % .259 .305 .345 .289 81 -4.3 10.8 2.1 Median Years: 2 Median AAV: $5 million Total: 2 years, $10 million Average Years: 2.0 Average AAV: $5.3 million Total: 2.0 years, $10.7 million #36 Justin Masterson (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 29 128.2 8.11 4.83 58.2 % 5.88 4.50 4.08 -1.8 0.3 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $9 million Total: 1 year, $9 million Average Years: 1.8 Average AAV: $9.5 million Total: 1.8 years, $17.2 million #37 Dan Haren (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 33 186.0 7.02 1.74 41.5 % 4.02 4.09 3.70 -0.3 1.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $8 million Total: 1 year, $8 million Average Years: 1.5 Average AAV: $8.6 million Total: 1.5 years, $12.8 million For pitching 180 innings in 2014, Haren earned a player option for 2015 worth $10M. Will he exercise it? Yes: 83%. No: 17%. #38 Koji Uehara (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 39 64.1 11.19 1.12 32.3 % 2.52 3.09 2.41 2.2 1.4 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $8 million Total: 1 year, $8 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $8.5 million Total: 1.4 years, $11.9 million #39 Stephen Drew (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 31 300 9.0 % 25.0 % .162 .237 .299 .238 44 -21.6 1.5 -1.1 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $7 million Total: 1 year, $7 million Average Years: 1.5 Average AAV: $7.2 million Total: 1.5 years, $10.4 million #40 Michael Morse (1B/OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 32 482 6.4 % 25.1 % .279 .336 .475 .355 133 12.8 -18.0 1.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $7 million Total: 1 year, $7 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $7.0 million Total: 1.4 years, $10.0 million #41 Brett Anderson (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 26 43.1 6.02 2.70 61.0 % 2.91 2.99 3.55 0.9 1.1 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $7 million Total: 1 year, $7 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $7.1 million Total: 1.4 years, $10.0 million The Rockies hold a $12.0M option (with a $1.5M buyout) on Anderson for 2015. Will they exercise it? No: 85%. Yes: 15%. #42 Ryan Vogelsong (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 36 184.2 7.36 2.83 38.4 % 4.00 3.85 3.96 0.9 1.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $7 million Total: 1 year, $7 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $6.8 million Total: 1.4 years, $9.6 million #43 Aaron Harang (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 36 204.1 7.09 3.13 39.4 % 3.57 3.57 4.03 2.5 2.5 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $6 million Total: 1 year, $6 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $6.6 million Total: 1.4 years, $9.4 million #44 Brandon Morrow (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 29 33.1 8.10 4.86 50.5 % 5.67 3.73 4.06 -0.2 0.4 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $6 million Total: 1 year, $6 million Average Years: 1.3 Average AAV: $6.7 million Total: 1.3 years, $9.0 million Toronto holds a $10M option ($1M buyout) on Morrow’s contract for 2015. Will they exercise it? No: 77%. Yes: 23%. #45 Kendrys Morales (1B/DH) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 31 401 6.7 % 17.0 % .218 .274 .338 .271 72 -17.2 -11.5 -1.7 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $6 million Total: 1 year, $6 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $6.1 million Total: 1.2 years, $7.1 million The Seattle front office has exhibited a peculiar fascination with Morales. Will they sign him for 2015 (and perhaps beyond), as well? Yes: 62%. No: 38%. #46 Francisco Rodriguez (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 32 68.0 9.66 2.38 43.9 % 3.04 4.50 2.91 1.3 -0.6 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $5 million Total: 1 year, $5 million Average Years: 1.5 Average AAV: $5.7 million Total: 1.5 years, $8.7 million #47 Gavin Floyd (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 31 54.1 7.45 2.15 49.4 % 2.65 3.79 3.47 0.7 0.5 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $5 million Total: 1 year, $5 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $6.0 million Total: 1.4 years, $8.3 million #48 Chris Young (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 30 366 8.7 % 19.1 % .222 .299 .385 .303 95 -0.2 -7.4 0.4 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $5 million Total: 1 year, $5 million Average Years: 1.4 Average AAV: $5.8 million Total: 1.4 years, $8.1 million #49 Josh Johnson (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 29 81.1 9.18 3.32 45.1 % 6.20 4.62 3.58 -1.2 0.6 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $5 million Total: 1 year, $5 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $5.4 million Total: 1.2 years, $6.5 million The Padres hold a $4M option on Johnson for 2015. Will they exercise it? Yes: 83%. No: 17%. #50 Chris Young (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 35 165.0 5.89 3.27 22.3 % 3.65 5.02 5.19 2.4 0.2 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $5 million Total: 1 year, $5 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $5.2 million Total: 1.2 years, $6.4 million #51 Chad Billingsley (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 28 12.0 4.50 3.75 41.7 % 3.00 4.38 4.66 0.3 0.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $5 million Total: 1 year, $5 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $5.2 million Total: 1.2 years, $6.0 million The Dodgers hold a $14M option (with a $3M buyout) on Billingsley for 2015. Will they exercise it? No: 97%. Yes: 3%. Briefly, explain how in the hell you reached any of these conclusions about a player who hasn’t pitched in over a year. “Josh Johnson comparable.” “Rough guess of a short-term bounce-back contract.” “Consulted with my 7-year-old son.” #52 Ichiro Suzuki (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 40 385 5.5 % 17.7 % .284 .324 .340 .296 86 -3.6 -5.5 0.4 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $5 million Total: 1 year, $5 million Average Years: 1.1 Average AAV: $4.7 million Total: 1.1 years, $5.2 million #53 Mark Reynolds (1B/3B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 30 433 10.9 % 28.2 % .196 .287 .394 .302 87 -5.0 7.1 1.6 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: 1 year, $4 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $4.8 million Total: 1.2 years, $5.8 million #54 Chris Capuano (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 35 97.1 7.77 3.14 39.5 % 4.35 3.91 3.89 0.4 1.0 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $4 million Total: 1 year, $4 million Average Years: 1.2 Average AAV: $4.5 million Total: 1.2 years, $5.2 million Dave Cameron probably thinks Kyle Kendrick should receive a ballot instead of Capuano. Which of the pair (Capuano or Kendrick) will get a bigger contract? Kendrick: 67%. Capuano: 33%. #55 Delmon Young (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 28 255 3.9 % 20.0 % .302 .337 .442 .345 120 5.9 -5.6 0.9 Median Years: 1 Median AAV: $3 million Total: 1 year, $3 million Average Years: 1.3 Average AAV: $3.7 million Total: 1.3 years, $4.8 million We hoped you liked reading FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 55 Free Agents by Carson Cistulli! Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage. Support FanGraphs