FanGraphs Dodgers/Giants NLDS Game 5 Chat
9:00 |
: Hi everyone! I’m here. Dan is here. The most hyped game of the season is here. Let’s hope it lives up to expectations. We’ll be here all night talking about the game, making dumb and not so dumb polls, and answering any other fun questions that end up in the queue. Thanks so much for joining us!
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9:01 |
You are on the Dodgers conference call, you are asked to vote…
Go traditional, start Urias (39.6% | 50 votes)
Use Knebler as an opener to flip the lineup (60.3% | 76 votes)
Total Votes: 126
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9:02 |
: So far, the results of the poll show there might not be a right/wrong answer.
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9:02 |
: What’s the optimum lineup strategy for the Giants, with Knebel starting?
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9:02 |
: Personally, I’d go with my vs. Urias lineup.
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9:03 |
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9:03 |
: They won 107 games and have the Dodgers on the brink. I think it’s silly to be assigning any of this to luck at this point.
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9:04 |
: Dave Roberts reportedly texted Gabe Kapler last night to tell him that Knebel would start today’s game. Can you explain that? Is giving the opposing manager that type of notice common?
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9:04 |
: It’s a courtesy. It’s nice of him. It’s not done all of the time, but it’s certainly not uncommon.
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9:04 |
: Without using Dan’s supercomputer, what is the win probability distribution for this game according to you?
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9:04 |
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9:05 |
: What needs to go the Giants’ way for them to win this game?
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9:05 |
: It’s really just going to be about Webb being second half/g1 Webb.
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9:05 |
: Cheap answer but really the top factor.
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9:06 |
Who are you rooting for? (NOT A PREDICTION QUESTION)
Giants (50.7% | 72 votes)
Dodgers (28.1% | 40 votes)
Neutral, just want a good game (21.1% | 30 votes)
Neutral and want a crappy game (0% | 0 votes)
Total Votes: 142
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9:06 |
: Good evening!
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9:06 |
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9:06 |
: But apparently there was a Windows update waiting.
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9:06 |
: I think it was you (among others) that said SF is doing some groundbreaking work on matchups. What exactly does that mean beyond the usual analytics or are their dark magicks still beyond us mere mortals?
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9:06 |
: If you’re going to use Knebel as an opener, would there be a way to hide it until the line-up cards are exchanged? It seems like some of the value is lost by allowing the Giants to revise their lineup.
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9:07 |
: No, latest it could be would be when lineups are revealed which has an early afternoon deadline.
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9:07 |
: Whoops, walked on Shodai there, which if you watch sumo, happens at times.
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9:07 |
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9:08 |
: Bigger hype: today’s game or Hakuho-Terunofuji showdown back in July…
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9:08 |
: This is the game of the year, the was the biggest sumo match of the last . . . ten years? Sumo all the way. I stayed up until nearly 4am to watch that match.
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9:08 |
: There’s so much to examine there; digging into matchup mysteries is such a fun, complex problem.
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9:09 |
: Who would each team start in Game 1 of the NLCS?
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9:09 |
: I would guess Max/Gausman
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9:09 |
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9:09 |
: I’ve got Justinian down here, don’t know what the others are up to at the moment.
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9:09 |
: Would there be any incentive to use a second reliever before Urias just to keep the Giants on their toes?
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9:09 |
: Jesse has his thinking cap on. . . .
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9:09 |
: I was actually taking a Devil’s nap; got little sleep last night as I was finishing my piece and had a headache.
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9:10 |
: How do all these people have each other’s phone numbers?
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9:10 |
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9:11 |
: Is Frangraphs correspondent Ben Clemens at the game today?
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9:11 |
: I think he is!
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9:11 |
: He definitely is.
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9:11 |
: As a spectator rather than working
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9:11 |
: Doesn’t look like Webb is getting the extra 6 inches tonight
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9:11 |
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9:11 |
: Can we have a scouting report on President Pierce?
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9:11 |
: He’s a little SOB. 80 energy.
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9:11 |
: Kevin, are you an IDLES fan?
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9:11 |
: I am!
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9:12 |
: What does the Giants off-season look like?
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9:12 |
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9:12 |
: Wow, big Giants crowd in the chat, almost 2-to-1 over Dodgers.
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9:13 |
: Oh man, I don’t have my Pierce Tale of the Tape any more.
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9:14 |
: I saved over it with the Tale of the Tape for the Adams vs. Adams match.
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9:14 |
:
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9:14 |
: Was the league able to change the start time of this if they wanted? This is such a marquee matchup that will end around 1 AM eastern.
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9:14 |
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9:14 |
: After the Dodgers lose tonight, are they the modern version of the 90’s Braves?
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9:14 |
: Winning the Series is hard! It’s not like they’re the Twins
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9:15 |
: Do teams have any metrics on umpires that translate to anything in game?
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9:15 |
: Absolutely. Advance reports include umpire sheets so the battery knows the zone tendencies. Really strong ones can influence location strategies.
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9:15 |
: Little known fact: if these teams are tied after 18 innings they both advance and have to combine teams for the next series
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9:15 |
: 18 innings? I intend to be in bed by 3 AM.
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9:16 |
: That Webb inning was a bit concerning. Hard hit balls all over the place.
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9:17 |
: Trea Turner .158/.158/.211 this series, not what you want
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9:17 |
: I’m sure there were several four-game streaks during the season for Turner that were worse. It’s FOUR GAMES.
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9:17 |
: I like the lineup the Giants are using. Mostly a mix of their best overall players and not obsessing about any 12th-dimensional chess the Dodgers are doing with pitcher usage.
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9:17 |
: I am cheering Giants because the Dodgers won last year so it’s boring to cheer for them again.
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9:18 |
: Honestly, if you’re rooting for variety, you basically want the Braves to win it all.
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9:18 |
: So how many innings do we see from Urias today?
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9:18 |
: I guess they’ll treat it like a normal start, no?
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9:18 |
: 7 of the last 11 World Series are teams remaining
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9:19 |
: Ruf with a blast to the wrong part of the ballpark
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9:19 |
: I am sad there was no way to like that comment, Dan.
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9:19 |
: You can like it in your heart.
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9:19 |
: Shildt the most surprising firing in recent memory?
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9:19 |
: Shocking
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9:20 |
: 104/36 for Ruf; 101/30 for Posey.
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9:20 |
: Brusader Graterol warming. This is not a drill.
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9:20 |
: Oh man Betts is lucky that Posey isn’t fast
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9:21 |
: What could the “philosophical differences” between Shildt and the front office be?
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9:21 |
: There’s a ton to unpack here. Probably not for the chat. I’ll be on the radio in STL tomorrow to discuss….
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9:21 |
: Heideggerian vs. Hegelian
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9:21 |
: Knebel getting hit pretty hard, too. If it was just about anyone but Posey hitting that last one, it would have been three bases.
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9:22 |
: Bertrand Russell vs. the world
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9:22 |
: TBS is talking about Posey 10 for 20 vs Urias. Do teams still pay attention to individual match-up stats or are the sample sizes too small?
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9:23 |
: Too small for the most part, but when you get around 20 AB, it starts to get thought about, for right or wrong. Dan: Do individual hitter/pitcher matchups ever half enough for you to be real?
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9:23 |
: I can’t tell you what teams are *actually* looking at, but from what I’ve personally seen, I get the impression that its’ more geared towards *characteristics* that lead to beneficial matchups rather than the specific players.
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9:23 |
: Is Urias in the dugout still?
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9:23 |
: No, in the bullpen to warm when he’s coming in.
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9:23 |
: Was the podcast recorded before the Shildt news broke, KG?
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9:23 |
: As you’ll hear tomorrow, it broke WHILE we were recording.
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9:24 |
: Strike 3 to Crawford is a ball because it was a missed location.
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9:24 |
: Did you make a loud klaxon sound and go into 1930s radio announcer voice? That’s what I do on podcasts anytime news breaks.
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9:24 |
: I did say breaking news….
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9:25 |
: You know I’m all the weird episodes of FanGraphs Audio.
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9:25 |
: I welcome our future robot ball/strike calling overlords.
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9:25 |
: Holy crap that breaker for strike three.
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9:25 |
: Just to get back to the matchup thing.
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9:25 |
: Approaching 3000 rpm
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9:26 |
: I want to suss out the *qualities* that would lead a righties curveball to get what kind of lefties out
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9:26 |
If we can ask non-game questions)
: What is Keibert Ruiz’s offensive upside? ( |
9:26 |
: You can, and above average for a catcher.
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9:26 |
: Rather than the specific names so much because you’re going into sample issues
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9:26 |
: Dan: Problem is there are 582 different types of curveballs
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9:26 |
: Hence the difficulty!
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9:27 |
: But more on the macro level than the matchup level
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9:28 |
: Does Knebel pitch to Bryant? Then Urias to Yaz?
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9:28 |
: Makes sense, but I have to wonder if Roberts wants to give Urias a clean inning to start….
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9:28 |
: I’m assuming that when the Dodgers pinch hit for the pitcher the first time through the order, they’ll have burned two relievers and bring in Urias after that. Is this right?
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9:28 |
: We will find out together!
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9:28 |
: % chance that you pick the Giants to win the division next year?
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9:28 |
: Very low.
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9:29 |
: Im not watching this game but this is really cool to be able to chat with you all during a game. Hope to come back for another game.
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9:29 |
: There will be more. We really like doing these, and it’s always great to hear that you folks do as well.
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9:29 |
: Also, watch the game!
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9:29 |
: Am I just seeing things, or is Logan Webb the spittin’ image of Jesse Plemons, the actor?
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9:29 |
: Cannot cheer for Atlanta because the chop is an abomination
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9:30 |
: Have to expect the Padres to end up with a more competitive record next year, right?
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9:30 |
: I’d certainly take the over on a 77 number, but hard to see them catching the Dodgers in terms of overall roster quality.
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9:30 |
: It’s really cringe.
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9:30 |
: Chief Wahoo was worse than the Tomahawk Chop, but the Tomahawk Chop is *way* worse than the team name Indians
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9:30 |
: Giants are one of my least favorite teams but since my favorite teams are all AL or bad this year I’m rooting for the Giants.
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9:30 |
: The Jesse Plemons thing is something I’m tired of.
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9:30 |
: Does this feel like the world series to anyone else?
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9:30 |
: I demand seven games!
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9:30 |
: Not as tired as Logan Webb is, I betcha.
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9:31 |
: Unfortunately, my demands are rarely met!
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9:31 |
: Graterol throwing in pen, so feels like he’ll have the second….
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9:31 |
: Which of this year’s playoff teams do you think is least likely to reappear in the playoffs next year? Notwithstanding that they had the best record this year, I’d have to think the Giants are at or near the top of that list.
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9:31 |
: Fun question. Red Sox up there for me.
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9:31 |
: I hate to say it because it will inevitably sound like sour grapes, but I gotta say Giants. They gotta essentially rebuild the rotation again and it’s still an old team.
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9:32 |
: And Boston does have some issues.
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9:32 |
: NEVER. FIGHT. A MAN. WITH A PERM.
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9:32 |
: They should rename themselves the Barvez. Hebrew for duck.
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9:32 |
: Yum!
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9:32 |
: Webb doesn’t feel “as” on as he was in Game 1, which of course makes sense – the Giants offense will need to show up here. Kevin / dan – if Predicting, how many runs does the winning team score tonight? My guess – 5
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9:32 |
How many runs will it take to win tonight’s game?
1 (1.5% | 2 votes)
2 (7.6% | 10 votes)
3 (27.4% | 36 votes)
4 (44.2% | 58 votes)
5 (13.7% | 18 votes)
6 (4.5% | 6 votes)
7+ (0.7% | 1 vote)
Total Votes: 131
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9:33 |
: Ron Wotus, retiring Giants coach, said on the Network today that Brandon Crawford is the greatest shortstop in Giants history. That’s a something like 140-year history. Are you buying that?
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9:33 |
: No way. It’s gotta be Travis Jackson IMO
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9:33 |
: Much better inning that time!
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9:34 |
: Yeah, Jackson is part of the Everyone Frankie Frisch Ever Played With crew, but he really was damn good
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9:34 |
: Bottom of the 9th of WS game 7, you are up one run, opponent has bases loaded with 0 outs. Of contemporary players, who do you want at each infield position while playing infield in?
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9:34 |
: Arenado, Correa, Turner, Gurriel
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9:34 |
: Is Lux actually better in CF than Taylor?
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9:34 |
: No.
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9:35 |
: Better inning for Webb in terms of hard-hit balls, but his command is still not where it was his last start.
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9:35 |
: I mean, last start was his 98th percentile….
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9:35 |
: If his knees hadn’t gone, Jackson would have stuck around longer and made a better Hall case.
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9:35 |
: Hmm, worse in JAWS t han I thought though. 33rd
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9:36 |
: Whenever I see Crawford field I think of that video of him when he was in AA in Richmond. An early work type thing where he was doing almost trick fielding like a baseball Harlem Globetrotter. Smooth guy
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9:36 |
: Not Chris Speier?
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9:36 |
: Kind of ok with Knebel going but Graterol coming in feels like things are going to get really weird
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9:37 |
: What is Kirilloff’s ceiling?
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9:37 |
: Most likely sheetrock attached to joists.
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9:37 |
: I’m sorry
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9:38 |
: I knew something like that was coming
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9:38 |
: Yellow card, Dan.
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9:38 |
: Whatever it was with Schildt, they did it immediately despite the soft MLB prohibition on breaking news over the top of a playoff game. This isn’t going away quietly.
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9:38 |
: They asked for permission to announce and got it.
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9:38 |
: Kris Bryant can run a bit still.
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9:38 |
:
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9:38 |
: Bryant can really fly for a big guy.
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9:39 |
: C’mon Dan. I don’t wear the hat anymore, I’ve lost 40 pounds and I have a beard. I’ve evolved!
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9:39 |
: It’s an old card!
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9:39 |
: Do you agree with bringing in Graterol instead of Urias in the 2nd?
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9:39 |
: I do, end of SFG lineup is RHH heavy.
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9:39 |
: That was like a ballista from Bryant
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9:39 |
: I was doing the fly balls thing before it was cool.
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9:40 |
: Why doesn’t Graterol throw his 4 seamer more often? Do the Dodgers just not believe in it? sinker/slider combo is obviously already effective, do they not want to mess him up?
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9:40 |
: Echoes of the Hunter Pence broken bat hit
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9:40 |
: Bryant should still be a Cub, but I digress
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9:40 |
: He wanted to get to Free Agency, so nah.
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9:40 |
: every time Will Smith tosses his mask on a popup and then starts to drift back toward it i lose a year off my life
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9:41 |
: Will Smith still very much has college baseball catcher energy.
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9:41 |
: That’s not a bad thing, per se.
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9:42 |
: The vigor before time makes you into an Old Catcher
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9:42 |
: What do you think chances are Bryant re-signs with the Giants? He’s from out that way, that might help a little.
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9:42 |
: Also the team he grew up cheering for. He also wanted to get back on the west coast. It’s far from a done deal, but SFG is certainly the favorite to have him on their roster in 2022.
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9:42 |
: There’s a point every catcher hits around 33-34 where every time they stand up, the knees of everyone watching start hurting too.
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9:42 |
: I’m surprised to hear that Muncy has a dislocated elbow. I was able to locate it pretty easily from my couch.
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9:42 |
: “Old Catcher” – Mickey Cochrane
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9:43 |
: The Dodger bullpen terrifies me. KG / Dan – where did you vote in the poll above on “runs needed to win”?
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9:43 |
: I said 5
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9:43 |
: In terms of projection percentiles, this Giants season has to be right up there with the most extreme in recent history, right? Even as a Dodgers fan, I’ve gotta take my hat off to those guys
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9:43 |
: We got fun! First pressure point of the game with two on, one on. Not the best part of the lineup for the Giants here…..
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9:43 |
: It is in ZiPS. We’re talking above 99th percentile and it’s ZiPS’ biggest miss ever
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9:44 |
: Hey, as 8 hitters go, I’ll take Longo
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9:44 |
: Longoria cheating on FB, still can’t get to it.
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9:44 |
: If this doesn’t work, Roberts gets excoriated
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9:44 |
: Bryant and Bellinger sort of remind me of each other in a way. A bit underrated athletically in their draft days, perhaps. Body type to an extent. How was Bellinger just a 1b in HS? I get LH, but no CF or RF? Was he less athletic then?
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9:44 |
: Undeserved.
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9:45 |
: Roberts made it clear this was a FO decision.
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9:45 |
: Huge out there with runners holding and now pitcher up.
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9:45 |
: Only 40% K rate for Webb this year at the plate.
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9:46 |
: Is the percentage chance Correa signs with the Cubs higher than 0?
|
9:46 |
: Not much.
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9:46 |
: The announcer just said Logan Webb was a good hitter
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9:46 |
: Being a good hitting pitcher is usually like being a four-year-old described as a good cook
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9:47 |
: Carlos Zambrano could be trusted to not burn the house down making toast
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9:47 |
: But wasn’t actually GOOD
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9:47 |
: Nice try Logan. Seven innings to go, and I’m gonna go make an iced coffee, back in 60.
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9:47 |
: I did not realize that Longoria has not been an all star since 2010
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9:47 |
: When I was a kid (in the 80s), Roy Campanella signed a card for me at a card show and I have been a huge fan my whole life. That is supposed to be the point of autographs.
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9:47 |
: Sorry, what is FO?
|
9:47 |
: Front office
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9:47 |
: Is Greinke as much of a Hall of Fame lock as it feels like he should be?
|
9:47 |
: No way
|
9:48 |
: It took six years to get Mussina in
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9:49 |
: It’s 2:48pm here on Friday afternoon in New Zealand. I have stopped working. This game is bigger than work.
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9:49 |
: HEY ITS FRIDAY THERE CAN YOU TELL US WHO WON?
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9:49 |
: Kevin, how would you handicap Correa’s chances of landing with the Tigers? People there think the AJ connection, but that seems unlikely to me because history?
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9:50 |
: Cam: What are you doing in NZ? Is the game on normal TV there? Do you hang out with Flight Of The Conchords?
|
9:50 |
: I think history actually favors AJ/Correa.
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9:50 |
: But that doesn’t make them the favorite. I still think Yankees make too much sense.
|
9:50 |
: Baseball was the winner on the day. There’s your tip
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9:51 |
: The people of one day later should be more generous to those of us in the past.
|
9:51 |
: Mussina didn’t have 3000Ks though, and Greinke will likely reach that total before retiring.
|
9:51 |
: Should we be savouring these pitcher at bats because they’re likely the last ones we’ll ever see?
|
9:51 |
: Or celebrating their elimination….
|
9:51 |
: Yeah, but the Hall of Fame voting base evolves slower than the end-of-season award voters
|
9:52 |
Do you want a universal DH?
Yes, watching pitchers hit is dumb (59.5% | 84 votes)
No, watching pitchers hit is fun (40.4% | 57 votes)
Total Votes: 141
|
9:52 |
: I have to admit that I’m sorta indifferent about the DH
|
9:52 |
: It’s fun to see pitchers hit sometimes, but I don’t really care too much.
|
9:52 |
: It’s not something I lose sleep over, but I’m for all DH, all the time.
|
9:53 |
: Hmmm, I thought Taylor got more of that.
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9:53 |
: I actually think we get another year of the DH at least
|
9:53 |
: There’s bigger crap to deal with this winter
|
9:53 |
: Agreed, I actually like that each league is different. And I’m an AL fan
|
9:53 |
: GAH. The Giants need some breaks here. No profound question, but feels like they’re gonna regret not taking those early opps
|
9:53 |
: 92/34 on the Taylor ball, didn’t even get that much of it.
|
9:54 |
: I don’t like the giants but I love Webb just based on how fast he works. Pitchclock when?
|
9:54 |
: Of all the experiments in the minors, this would be my strong bet to get to the big leagues first. It makes a huge different.
|
9:54 |
: Universal DH with a quite solid lead.
|
9:54 |
: That was Webb’s best inning so far.
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9:55 |
: Buster Posey is 34 and I honestly thought he was older. Maybe a year off to get healthy is underrated!
|
9:55 |
: It absolutely is. I think it’s a massive part of his success this year. The physical toll of catching is unreal and under-appreciated.
|
9:55 |
: When I see pitchers try to bat, I don’t feel like it’s an honest effort much of the time, and from a competitive standpoint, that offends me.
|
9:56 |
: Game is being broadcast on ESPN here in New Zealand – we get the Australian versions of ESPN 1 and 2 here, full of targeted Aussie stuff. Typical Yanks thinking Aussie and NZ are the same. I haven’t met the Flight guys – although Bret McKenzie plays in a band called the Black Seeds and they rock – great live.
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9:56 |
: I tthink it’s an honest effort. It’s just that none MLB-quality hitters against MLB-quality pitchers is going to look really awful
|
9:57 |
: As a hitter, I always HATED it when the pitcher was rushing me. Pretty sure this is a thing even though I quit after high school. “Don’t rush me! I’ve made that mistake before” (taylor dayne)
|
9:57 |
: I saw Marcus Stroman go oppo a few years back in interleague play and it was legitimately dope, AL pitcher going yard. Electrifying. But man the overwhelming majority of the time it is grim watching dudes fail to bunt and flail away uselessly.
|
9:57 |
: Bartolo homer!
|
9:57 |
: Is it safe to assume Ramos and Bart will be in Dickerson and Casali’s roster spots next season.
|
9:57 |
: When I was in ANZ, all the hotels had two sports networks, and 80% of what they aired was rugby (ick), and most of the rest was cricket. I became a big cricket fan as a result of watching it there.
|
9:57 |
: Casali is arb eligible and I bet he stays. Team raves about him.
|
9:59 |
: Enjoying pitchers hitting is about outlier anecdata. Your brain has deleted the 99% of pathetic strikeouts and 6-3s.
|
9:59 |
: Zambrano hit 24 HRs. Fun!
|
9:59 |
: I’m with actually, even though he used a word I don’t know the meaning of.
|
10:00 |
: MadBum was fun to watch hit
|
10:01 |
: Which one of you is the Taylor Dayne fan? Her overall sing tool was like 65-70 IMO
|
10:01 |
: Excuse me, I’m sorry to bother you. But I just have to say . . . I love your voice. (Whoever gets that is a good person)
|
10:01 |
: How many future hall of famers do you think are in this game?
|
10:02 |
: Well, Dodgers have what, 3 guys in the lineup who could make cases? Maybe a fourth if you think Bellinger can turn things around in a major way
|
10:02 |
: Posey I think gets in
|
10:03 |
: Jay isn’t here, and well, I need to stay on brand in terms of awards and the HOF
|
10:03 |
: Is everyone else getting loanDepot commercials that are like 10% the volume of the other commercials?
|
10:03 |
: Kershaw, Pujols and Scherzer being the three Dan?
|
10:03 |
: They’re not IN the game
|
10:04 |
: and Kershaw, of course, isn’t even in the series!
|
10:04 |
In what inning will we see the first run?
4th (32.9% | 32 votes)
5th (32.9% | 32 votes)
6th (22.6% | 22 votes)
7th (6.1% | 6 votes)
8th (3.0% | 3 votes)
9th (1.0% | 1 vote)
Extras (1.0% | 1 vote)
Total Votes: 97
|
10:05 |
: Betts not a lock?
|
10:05 |
: Not a lock yet by any means!
|
10:05 |
: Betts could end up in the HOF maybe?
|
10:05 |
: He COULD but it’s not there yet
|
10:05 |
: Hang on, I guess you guys want I should run a projection?
|
10:05 |
: Verdict so far on the Dodgers’ pitching strategy?
|
10:05 |
: Score says it worked.
|
10:05 |
: YES DAN
|
10:07 |
: Hmm, well ZiPS has him finishing with 77.3 WAR
|
10:07 |
: but that’s not where he is *now*. A lot of bad things can happen in a decade.
|
10:08 |
: Has him exactly 50% through his career strikeouts. 178 more projected
|
10:08 |
: so 356
|
10:08 |
: about 2300 hits
|
10:08 |
: Can we say the opener worked? Dont we have to see how Urias does?
|
10:08 |
: Why? Who’s to say how it would have gone in a normal start?
|
10:08 |
: But I dont’ think i’d call it a *lock*
|
10:08 |
: Based on what Trea Turner has done so far in the series, and his career numbers, it’s pretty certain that he’ll go hard this inning. He’s due.
|
10:08 |
: Due is not a thing. (Turner went 1-3)
|
10:08 |
: Free screenings tomorrow of RAD – the insanely great BMX movie celebrating its 35th anniversary. Lori Loughlin(‘s obvious stunt double) does a bike dance that is pivotal to the plot but like most 80s movies, it’s mostly about Helltrack and defeating the Blonde A__hole.
|
10:08 |
: More players have had Hall of Fame trajectories than careers that got them in, sadly.
|
10:09 |
: Opener did affect the lineup construction, but with the Giants turning over the lineup by the 3rd, doesn’t seem like it was super effective. Thoughts?
|
10:09 |
: They weren’t baited into going all-in with lefties, like Twitter thought they would for some bizarre reason
|
10:09 |
: I didn’t hurt them.
|
10:10 |
: I already asked this, but is it certain that whatever opener gain in handiness offsets potentially making the pitchers uncomfortable in their roles?
|
10:10 |
: It’s very pitcher to pitcher, and Urias coming out of pen in post-season games has some good history…..
|
10:12 |
: Best Led Zeppelin bass line: Ramble On / Lemon Song/ the field. I’ll give odds at 2:1 / 3:1 / 15:1
|
10:12 |
: Who does ZIPS like better to reach 65.0 career WAR: Betts or Posey?
|
10:12 |
: Betts
|
10:12 |
: Does Scherzer re-sign with the Dodgers?
|
10:12 |
: STRESS MOMENT. Two on, two out for Justin Turner.
|
10:12 |
: I think it’s quite possible
|
10:13 |
: I think LAD is the favorite at least.
|
10:13 |
: What’s up my dudes and dudettes? Anything going on tonight?
|
10:13 |
: There’s a very good baseball game on.
|
10:13 |
: Absolute nails from Webb there. He’s been nothing short of remarkable.
|
10:13 |
: 3-run homer. Book it
|
10:13 |
: Book what now?
|
10:14 |
: dang this game is just shooting by
|
10:14 |
: who else is stress eating
|
10:14 |
: If having coffee. Are you eating Burmese food?
|
10:15 |
: Um . . . . Max Scherzer is jogging from the dugout to the bullpen…
|
10:16 |
: 58.1 avg exit velo for Webb last inning btw
|
10:17 |
: Not predictive of course, but Scherzer didn’t fare well out of the bullpen in 2017 NLDS
|
10:17 |
: I’m just hoping it turns into an “ice cream” game
|
10:17 |
: If LA can get 5 innings from Urias,Scherzer will finish?
|
10:17 |
: Nah, I think he’s just for an emergency. Jansen SHOULD still get the ninth.
|
10:17 |
: Max with a 5% bullpen bonus is a scary thought. Dude’s intensity might pop a vein
|
10:18 |
: Somewhere, John Smoltz is complaining about the shift.
|
10:18 |
: Scherzer in Game 5 of the 2017 NLDS was also insanely unlucky
|
10:19 |
: oh I think it’s supposed to be a game that’s so good you begin to eat ice cream out of nervous excitement
|
10:19 |
: Does Trea instead of Corey get to that ball…?
|
10:19 |
: More likely, but not in a way where he could make a play.
|
10:19 |
: Smoltz complained about the shift on a single without the shift
|
10:19 |
: Remember when Vladdy almost killed Max at the all Star game then hugged him? Imagine having the stones to hug Scherzer while he’s on the mound. Took his life into his hands there
|
10:19 |
: Didn’t Scherzer DSg5 in 2017 have a catcher’s interference and like 2 errors?
|
10:21 |
: Forcing TBS’s chosen broadcasters upon us instead of Kruk + Kuip should be a crime
|
10:21 |
: lol strike zone
|
10:21 |
: That really was not a strike
|
10:21 |
: Really bad AB for the ump.
|
10:21 |
: As a Dodger fan …. Doug Eddings you the real MVP
|
10:22 |
: It seems like it’d be true, and maybe it’s just missing spots when I’ve seen otherwise, but do teams encourage pitchers and catchers to pitch to the shift? Or are they relying more on batter tendency and telling pitchers/catchers to pitch how they otherwise would to that batter/stick to pitcher strengths?
|
10:22 |
: AC Slater
|
10:22 |
: Yes. But locating pitches is REALLY REALLY HARD.
|
10:23 |
: Bryant striking out in a 5-0 count has to feel bad.
|
10:24 |
: Eddings thought that was a strike too
|
10:24 |
Crawford reaches 2nd with one out, do the Giants score?
Yup (24.2% | 25 votes)
Nope (75.7% | 78 votes)
Total Votes: 103
|
10:25 |
: Not to belabor this but Scherzer gave up two runs before errors/interference
|
10:25 |
: Slater’ll get it done
|
10:25 |
: QUIT PREDICTING SINGLE AB RESULTS FOLKS. YOU ARE REALLY BAD AT IT. NOBODY IS GOOD AT IT. THAT INCLUDES YOU.
|
10:25 |
: Eddings booting the ball away. Clearly on the take. I demand the game be replayed – if the Dodgers lose this farce
|
10:25 |
: Looked like some ump interference on that wild pitch. Maybe makeup for the Bryant AB?
|
10:26 |
: Eddings is having entirely too much impact on this inning
|
10:26 |
: Umpires are the true protagonists of baseball games. Players are just here for the Philosopher-Hero umpires to judge.
|
10:27 |
: Does eddings have a dodger shirt under his chest protector?
|
10:27 |
: Umpires are sometimes bad. To think that umpires are bad in a way that intentionally favors one team is just silly.
|
10:27 |
: Joe West can retire in peace with that comment, Dan
|
10:27 |
: Okay but this one time I was watching a game and I was like “this guy’s gonna hit a homer” and he did so
|
10:28 |
:
|
10:28 |
: Dan, I unironically agree with that take. Or at least, umps are significant supporting players, hugely important to the workings of the plot of the game. It’s why I’m against the robozone.
|
10:28 |
: And that’s four scoreless
|
10:28 |
: I’d have never guessed Flores will have such a career when I saw him toiling with the Mets
|
10:28 |
: People forget that Flores was one of, if not THE top player in the ’07 international class.
|
10:28 |
: Thanks to commercials, I’m already sick of this movie
|
10:29 |
: Umpires are the last true authority in america
|
10:29 |
: can’t predict an at-bat, can predict a half-inning! way to go pollsters
|
10:29 |
: Amen.
|
10:30 |
: What is the baseball version of Michael Myers?
|
10:30 |
: Jaime Moyer.
|
10:30 |
: Can’t be disappointed as an umpire fan, they seem to go to the World Series every single year
|
10:30 |
: Can we predict a game though?
|
10:30 |
: Not really, no.
|
10:31 |
: Badly!
|
10:31 |
: That’s why I go with probs
|
10:31 |
: Vicente Padilla is my Michael Myers
|
10:31 |
: But what if a guy is due?
|
10:31 |
: That changes everything!
|
10:32 |
: Michael Myers is an even Nastier Boy than Randy
|
10:32 |
: I predict this game will end eventually. I have been 100% on that postseason prediction so far.
|
10:32 |
: Some authority figures still matter. I stand and salute when David Appelman or Meg Rowley tell me to do something. That’s why I have a FanGraphs ad-free membership and support Effectively Wild on Patreon.
|
10:32 |
: Mateo is our player of the game
|
10:33 |
: It’s October, all about that big ‘mo, momentum
|
10:33 |
: Say it’s 0-0 and Longoria gets on base next inning. Pinch hit webb?
|
10:33 |
: I’d rather bunt.
|
10:33 |
: Mike Myers is of course the Michael Myers of baseball
|
10:33 |
: Missed opportunity by us, nice save from Cocopuffs.
|
10:33 |
: How many innings will Urias go?
|
10:33 |
: 4
|
10:34 |
: Unless a pinch-hitting opportunity is too hard
|
10:34 |
: That was a beautiful K pitch by Webb
|
10:34 |
: I gotta say, on that Lux K. My favorite non-contact play is the batter bail out called strike three.
|
10:34 |
: He had NO idea what that pitch was doing
|
10:35 |
: Who is Bellinger playing for in 2022?
|
10:35 |
: Dodgers
|
10:36 |
: Is there a correlation between sinker usage and injury?
|
10:36 |
: Not really. They only real correlation between pitching and injuries is that pitchers get injured.
|
10:36 |
: Dude in my dynasty league didn’t give up on Bellinger, I doubt LA will.
|
10:36 |
: Can we start talking about where each pitcher is putting whatever they’re mixing with the mound resin? Because Webb’s is by his right pocket.
|
10:36 |
: Too early to get a Zips forecast on Bellinger’s 2022, Dan?
|
10:36 |
: Is that the 36th 1-3 in this game for Webb?
|
10:36 |
: Probably but I can still run it! lol
|
10:37 |
: Percentile BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB OPS+ WAR 90% .278 .371 .570 460 82 128 28 8 30 107 68 14 149 5.4 80% .261 .353 .525 463 78 121 24 7 28 100 65 12 133 4.3 70% .254 .345 .500 464 77 118 23 5 27 96 64 11 125 3.8 60% .247 .338 .484 465 75 115 22 5 26 93 63 11 118 3.4 50% .242 .332 .466 466 75 113 21 4 25 89 62 10 112 3.0 40% .239 .326 .462 468 73 112 21 4 25 88 60 9 110 2.8 30% .230 .315 .436 470 71 108 20 4 23 85 58 9 100 2.2 20% .225 .308 .417 472 70 106 19 3 22 80 56 8 94 1.7 10% .215 .295 .392 475 66 102 18 3 20 74 53 7 83 1.0
|
10:37 |
: wow that looks awful
|
10:38 |
: Webb has extremely low spin rates spider tack isn’t helping him
|
10:38 |
:
|
10:38 |
: Kevin, which player that you’ve met would make the best game show host?
|
10:38 |
: Joe Biagini?
|
10:39 |
: Who has a better season next year Kyle Tucker or Luis Robert?
|
10:39 |
: Luis Robert has such a high ceiling
|
10:40 |
: Luis Robert is my spirit animal.
|
10:40 |
: Call me pessimistic, but I’m taking the under on that 50th percentile.
|
10:41 |
: man, good pitching is a hell of a drug
|
10:42 |
: a 112 wRC+ next year would be a nice upgrade in the 8 hole for the Dodgers
|
10:42 |
: I take back by 5 run prediction to win. I now think this is a race to 2, but the Giants bullpen may affect that outcome
|
10:42 |
: Do we think Gausman stays in SF?
|
10:42 |
: I think there’s a real chance that he does
|
10:43 |
: Apologies if you’ve already talked about this recently – but what do you make of Rob Arthur’s article finding that spin rates have been climbing steadily since the sticky stuff ban took effect. Guys adjusting their mechanics / grips to not having anything to use, or potentially some more stealthy methods sneaking back into the mix?
|
10:43 |
: Can’t decide who I’m rooting for tonight. Just want one of these two teams to crush the A.L. Champs
|
10:43 |
: Has anyone mentioned the travesty that was the City Pride jersey? Biggest perk of reaching the post season is knowing we don’t have to see those monstrosities ever again
|
10:45 |
: Urias keeps touching the same spot as Webb, below arm side back pocket. It’s not a big deal but also not subtle.
|
10:45 |
: He does it after he goes to his mouth, which is required by the rules.
|
10:46 |
: I hope this game ends soon… Young Sheldon is coming on. How the heck does that make it 5 seasons?
|
10:46 |
: I still don’t know who was watching Big Bang Theory
|
10:46 |
: catching up on chat where projection percentiles were discussed earlier. How extreme was Red Sox in 2013? I predicted they would win the east that year and my buddy thought I was crazy.
|
10:46 |
: I can check. Hang on
|
10:46 |
: Anyone looked at the ball to see if they dejuiced it a bit more? Feels like a lot of warning track fly balls
|
10:46 |
: The EVs haven’t been that impressive. I’m with you in that I’ve been fooled on the broadcast a couple of times off the bat, not sure why.
|
10:47 |
: Can we expect a freeze on major transactions in the offseason until a new CBA, or maybe a rush of transactions to get them in before a potential lockout? For me both polar scenarios seem plausible
|
10:47 |
: I don’t think we’ll see much before 12/1.
|
10:47 |
: would transactions before 12/1 get invalidated with a new cba?
|
10:47 |
: No.
|
10:48 |
: 88th percentiles
|
10:48 |
: for 2013 red sox
|
10:48 |
: Good call to let Webb bat?
|
10:48 |
: I was down with it.
|
10:48 |
: 84 projected
|
10:48 |
: 88th percentile
|
10:49 |
: Re: pitcher-injury correlations–so is it a myth about the screwball? I’ve always wondered.
|
10:49 |
Good call to let Webb bat?
Si (92.1% | 94 votes)
No (7.8% | 8 votes)
Total Votes: 102
|
10:49 |
: We don’t really have a TON of screwballs
|
10:49 |
: I know we haven’t talked much about the CBA, but I assume expectations are pretty pessimistic right now?
|
10:49 |
: Exceptionally so.
|
10:50 |
: Realistically I’m not sure how you could distinguish between 95 and 105 off the bat from the usual TV angle, probably just looks good because it’s the right launch angle
|
10:50 |
: You can distinguish 86 from 96 on a pitch, no?
|
10:50 |
: Barry!
|
10:50 |
: What do the owners want in the new CBA? It is obvious what the players need
|
10:50 |
You good with Urias hitting here?
Yes (88.8% | 88 votes)
No (11.1% | 11 votes)
Total Votes: 99
|
10:50 |
: Owners want to give ’em nothing and make it retroactive
|
10:50 |
: Owners want a way to keep as much money as possible.
|
10:51 |
: Barry Bonds at the game. I will tell my kids about the stuff I saw him do someday and they won’t believe me
|
10:51 |
: “There was this guy Barry Bonds. I saw him eat 87 pancakes on a Tuesday morning!”
|
10:51 |
: Should I just skip fantasy baseball in 2022 given the total lack of predictability? I can use that time in the winter/spring but also like winning and money. Or just let ‘er rip?
|
10:51 |
: Do you have fun playing fantasy baseball? Then play fantasy baseball!
|
10:52 |
Do you play fantasy baseball?
I do! (39.8% | 65 votes)
I do not! (60.1% | 98 votes)
Total Votes: 163
|
10:52 |
: Hmmm. Surprised here, I thought yes would win handily.
|
10:53 |
: Betts is the one guy who likes hitting against Webb.
|
10:53 |
: I spend way too much time paying attention to regular baseball I have other things I’d like to do with my days.
|
10:53 |
: then don’t play!
|
10:54 |
: What’s the roster size in the chat tonight?
|
10:54 |
: Two, me and Kevin!
|
10:54 |
: I don’t understand fantasy baseball at all. I root for the guy’s on my hometown team. I don’t want to be dependent on the success of guys on the other team.
|
10:54 |
: I mean how many people are here total
|
10:54 |
: Hundreds
|
10:54 |
: wow what a steal
|
10:54 |
: I don’t have the total number of people who have been in here, but at any given moment, it’s generally been 250-300
|
10:54 |
: Really tough pitch to throw on.
|
10:55 |
you doing when you were sixteen?
: Fun fact: Julio Urias was a 16-year-old professional baseball player at Great Lakes in the Midwest League. What were |
10:55 |
: alcohol
|
10:55 |
We really don’t know, because we can’t predict the future, but will the Dodgers score here?
Yes (65.2% | 62 votes)
No (34.7% | 33 votes)
Total Votes: 95
|
10:55 |
: At 16 I was finishing high school and getting ready to move to Chicago.
|
10:56 |
: IN PLAY (RUNS)
|
10:56 |
: YOU BETTER NOT VOTE NOW LIARS
|
10:56 |
: Seager with a great piece of hitting to drive home Mookie with an oppo line drive double.
|
10:57 |
: Dang, I don’t have any pictures of me at 16
|
10:57 |
Did The Dodgers Just Score A Run
Yes, we all just saw it, dummy (47.7% | 43 votes)
No, as none of this is truly real (52.2% | 47 votes)
Total Votes: 90
|
10:58 |
: Though I guess 16 and 18 were similar.
|
10:58 |
:
|
10:59 |
: Goldeneye?
|
10:59 |
: That better be a Goldeneye tournament.
|
10:59 |
: Of course
|
10:59 |
: If time is linear, why did the Dodgers bring a Lux capacitor?
|
10:59 |
: Kevin, I want option 3 “”Just” is a relative term, what if I’m answering this poll tomorrow”?
|
10:59 |
: No existentialism in the chat, sorry. Rules are rules.
|
11:00 |
: Which one is Dan
|
11:00 |
: I look pretty much the same just no beard
|
11:00 |
: Dan is all of them
|
11:00 |
: I’m certainly not Jerry, he was a workout freak despite him being in that picture
|
11:00 |
: We are all Dan
|
11:01 |
: Im’sorry
|
11:01 |
: Well, still 1-0
|
11:01 |
: How wild would it be if this was actually a Wave Race 64 tournament?
|
11:01 |
: But of COURSE it’s goldeneye
|
11:02 |
: Kevin finished HS when he was 16? Is that allowed?
|
11:02 |
: There was a time when I was gifted. I also graduated HS with like a 2.0 GPA.
|
11:02 |
: dan/kevin is the best chat combo ty for doing this guys
|
11:02 |
: Dan was probably playing OddJob.
|
11:02 |
: Thanks for coming
|
11:02 |
: Do you see anyone punching me?
|
11:03 |
: The rule was you could keep punching whoever tried to use Oddjob or Moonraker Elite 2
|
11:03 |
: I have a similar picture, and it really could be a Wave Race 64 tournament
|
11:03 |
: Is there a way to be Blanka in Street Fighter II for SNES without being the cheap beginner doing the too-easy move over and over? See also, Pikachu / Super Smash Bros for GameCube.
|
11:03 |
: Use Blanka’s mobility
|
11:04 |
: Kevin, how did you get your first job in the baseball world?
|
11:04 |
: To tell the story well, I’d need extra innings.
|
11:04 |
: you can’t rely on the electricity and the rolling thing if you’re against people who know how to play!
|
11:04 |
: Dan strikes me as a Jaws picker
|
11:04 |
: I liked ouromov
|
11:05 |
: What’s the cast in FanGraphs the movie? Obviously Robert Gossett reprising his role as Dan Szymborski
|
11:05 |
: ha!
|
11:05 |
: Right now it’s about a 61% win probability for the Dodgers
|
11:05 |
: There’s always space for a different interpretation of the Dan Szymborski character other than the one seen on The Young & the Restless
|
11:06 |
: and we are TIED
|
11:06 |
: Ruf luck for Urias
|
11:06 |
: Ruf AB for Urias
|
11:06 |
: How about now Kevin?
|
11:06 |
: Sometimes baseball games are insanely fun. Also, the win probabilities just changed dramatically.
|
11:07 |
: Rug!!!
|
11:07 |
: autocorrect is fun sometimes too
|
11:07 |
: Poetically this has to go to extras, right?
|
11:07 |
: yup
|
11:07 |
: it was always going to feel cheap if one team won 9-2 or something
|
11:10 |
: i think it’s good and cool that MLB has an official crypto exchange
|
11:10 |
: It feels like MLB just heard “Hey, crypto is a thing. Whatever it is let’s do that.”
|
11:10 |
: If you’re the Giants how inclined are you to go Gausman tonight? Feels hard to be comfortable with this bullpen
|
11:10 |
: I let him go as long as he’s comfortable
|
11:10 |
: That is also what wall street is doing with crypto
|
11:11 |
: No surprise, but the Ruf HR is the hardest hit ball of the night. 110.1 off the bat. That’s a very large number.
|
11:12 |
: He crushed it
|
11:12 |
: I have a meeting about crypto at MLB next week actually.
|
11:12 |
: Crypto is “very legal and very cool”
|
11:13 |
: Bryant is still pissed about the strike two call last AB
|
11:13 |
: OMG – moderated
|
11:13 |
: Is that you chris?
|
11:13 |
: This is a fantastic game and I’ll freely admit that I really still don’t understand crypto (I also haven’t really tried to, to be fair)
|
11:13 |
: Per JJ Cooper on twitter just now…Ruf in Reading, August 2012: .371/.451/.931 with 20 HRs in 31 games.
|
11:13 |
: I remember that run. He was like 26 at Double-A.
|
11:13 |
: Could it *be* anyone else?
|
11:14 |
: Fake Dials
|
11:14 |
: There’s a store-brand Dial soap. You could be a store-brand Dial. Kris Dial
|
11:15 |
: Chris Dial is here? Wow, this is like a legends of stats nerddom chat!
|
11:15 |
: Hey Dan what does Bryant’s rest of career zips projection look like if ya don’t mind me asking
|
11:15 |
: Crypto is going to save humanity KG, we’re just waiting to figure out how
|
11:15 |
: I just know it’s why PC gamer weirdos can’t get super expensive graphic cards.
|
11:15 |
: What am I, MADE OF PROJECTIONS?
|
11:16 |
: It took me a month of website mining to get my 3080 in January!
|
11:16 |
: Every time they say Ruf spent 3 years in Korea it sounds like they mean he fought in the war
|
11:16 |
: I predict that Dan predicts.
|
11:16 |
: Your Ace from Outer Space?
|
11:17 |
: you’re the one who put your own name in the projection database
|
11:17 |
: I didn’t even use the first letter!
|
11:17 |
: To be fair, we discussed that
|
11:17 |
: Crypto is the logical conclusion of your burnout friend who was good at math taking a huge toke and shouting ” but money’s just a concept, man”
|
11:17 |
Let’s do this again. It’s 1-1 after six innings. How many runs will win this game?
2 (24.8% | 32 votes)
3 (50.3% | 65 votes)
4 (19.3% | 25 votes)
5 (3.1% | 4 votes)
6 (0% | 0 votes)
7+ (2.3% | 3 votes)
Total Votes: 129
|
11:17 |
: Do pick-off attempts have a pitch count equivalent? Do they have any effect on a pitcher’s arm?
|
11:18 |
: I don’t think so, though there’s evidence hitters hit worse with more pickoff attempts
|
11:18 |
: Weren’t we urged not to make predictions?
|
11:18 |
: Not in any serious way, no.
|
11:18 |
: I voted 5 because I refuse to change my mind given new evidence
|
11:18 |
: You’ll make an excellent politician one day.
|
11:19 |
: For those who don’t know why I’m so familiar with Dial, Chris has been a friend for 25 years and is one of the reasons ZiPS is a thing.
|
11:19 |
: So blame him for the Giants preseason projection
|
11:19 |
: Predictions are easy. I parlayed the Orioles under .500 with Arrieta sucks. Next Kung Pao Chicken is on the house.
|
11:20 |
: Dan likes his chicken spicy
|
11:21 |
: This is pretty surprising that Webb is still in for the 7th, no?
|
11:21 |
: Mildly?
|
11:21 |
: It is, but it’s really hard to take it away from him now
|
11:22 |
: How many innings are we rooting for here? I assume Braves fans like me would be okay with 19.
|
11:22 |
: I certainly would love extras, but not because of the LCS impact.
|
11:22 |
: I’ve got my booster shot tomorrow, I don’t want to be going bed at 5 AM!
|
11:22 |
: If we have extras, let’s have a reasonable one
|
11:22 |
: I’d guess the logic is he’s already faced the “scary” part of the dodgers lineup the 3rd time?
|
11:23 |
: My sleep schedule is absolutely hosed with a puppy in the house, so I’m just like whatever.
|
11:23 |
: Which isn’t really bad Rich. Maybe they feel different if the top of the order is up here
|
11:23 |
: If we’re doing predictions/polls, Who wins the NLCS? Braves, Dodgers or Giants?
|
11:23 |
: You kinda have to take the Braves if doing a NOW projection
|
11:23 |
: Nope, game results are verboten in KG chats.
|
11:24 |
: This feels like it should be the NLCS… idk something about one of these teams getting bounced in the 1st round just feels wrong
|
11:24 |
: My 5G microchip booster isn’t till 1:30 tomorrow, let’s get to the 16th tonight. Max is inevitable.
|
11:24 |
: Then win your division. I see this kind of thing as a feature more than a bug.
|
11:24 |
: Webb has the best pitcher snarl since Lackey.
|
11:24 |
: I just prefer it would be 7
|
11:24 |
: bit 5
|
11:24 |
: Do people still say “stymied “?
|
11:24 |
: Stymied is a good word
|
11:24 |
: Yes, he has the “MAriano Rivera” portion of the lineup
|
11:25 |
: So then I assume you are against re-seeding after the WC, KG?
|
11:25 |
: Nah, I’m fine with the current setup. If anything, I’d just kill the wild card game, have just one wild card team and they play the 1 seed.
|
11:25 |
: I like there being a significant penalty for the wild card though
|
11:25 |
: you can’t really do it with matchup and HFA
|
11:26 |
: Without the wild card game, that NL West final week is just “who cares, whatever”
|
11:26 |
: Or the last two months after the Padres plummetted
|
11:26 |
: plummeted
|
11:26 |
: sorry
|
11:27 |
: Plumetttttttttted
|
11:27 |
: I just know that this series is probably gonna be the best series in the entire postseason. Although an LA-HOU grudge match would be cool
|
11:27 |
: 2nd wild card team should be randomly selected. We need a Charlie Kelly style wildcard.
|
11:27 |
: Love it when pitchers show emotion.
|
11:27 |
: Is Wilmer Flores good?
|
11:27 |
: He’s useful for sure.
|
11:30 |
: If playoffs expand in the new CBA, do we see a shorter regular season?
|
11:30 |
: No
|
11:31 |
: And I don’t think playoffs expand
|
11:31 |
: I think they might
|
11:32 |
: Playoffs games make a ton of money. Owners like money. Easy concession for players. Might line up.
|
11:32 |
: No way Treinen is good enough that you let him hit, right?
|
11:32 |
: No way.
|
11:33 |
: As a fan, I hate expanded playoff’s potential for crowning a mediocre champion. Baseball games are so close to 50/50 that a middling team can run the table in the playoffs in a way that rarely happens in football or basketball.
|
11:33 |
: It can happen now, and does often.
|
11:34 |
: I wonder about that pitch classification. I presume those pitches were some kind of slider?
|
11:34 |
: Logan Webb. Wow, that’s (and I hate this cliche, but true) a hell of an old-school SP ace performance. If he never does anything else, will always have this series.
|
11:34 |
: Holy hell, how is one supposed to hit that Treinen pitch? my eyes broke trying to follow that
|
11:34 |
: When does Scherzer come in?
|
11:34 |
: It’s absolutely insane raw stuff. Among the best in the game.
|
11:34 |
: When he demands it!
|
11:34 |
: But if there are expanded playoffs, and yet teams continue to manage them the way they do now (“spikes on,” as Cora says), won’t that just lead to more injuries?
|
11:34 |
: So why not Kelly here instead?
|
11:34 |
: Interesting one. Maybe has a matchup in mind….
|
11:35 |
: What’s some of the best pure stuff you saw, Kevin? Whether they made it or not. Ariel Hernández made it with the Reds a little. Talk about an effectively wild, tough AB
|
11:35 |
: Fun question. Best raw stuff/worst pitcher award is absolutely Jason Neighborgall. But that wasn’t fun, that was just sad.
|
11:36 |
: Uttlerly killer inning from Blake.
|
11:36 |
: I think Joe Kelly is who Roberts brings in to get out of jams. No jams yet.
|
11:36 |
: The Dodgers are going to use Scherzer in the 9th because there’s nothing the Dodgers love more than pushing their starters in relief in clinching games.
|
11:36 |
: The silver lining of no Kershaw
|
11:36 |
: Best stuff I ever saw in person belonged to Oil Can Boyd. Who was good, just not as good as I always thought he should have been.
|
11:37 |
: 80 nickname though
|
11:37 |
: There are a lot of right answers but Carlos Marmol leads all Cubs RPs in fWAR, that’s my guy.
|
11:37 |
: Dylan Maples deserves a shot at that best stuff/worst results trophy
|
11:37 |
: He’s up there. He’s no Neighborgall. Go look him up.
|
11:38 |
: So LAD starts the game with two relievers before bringing in their CY candidate, who only goes 4 IP. On what planet is that a smart move? Too clever by half…
|
11:38 |
: The Giants have one run in seven innings. How can you call this a failure.
|
11:39 |
: Because they wanted the Giants to have ZERO runs in seven innings
|
11:40 | : looks like Jason is doing ok! You think with today’s level of pitching sophistication, anyone could have harnessed his stuff better? |
11:40 |
: Well, they used four pitchers to get the same results as one pitcher for the Giants…
|
11:40 |
: This is not a comparison. The Dodgers have allowed one run in seven innings. The pitching has done well.
|
11:41 |
: The Urias move could only be criticized. No outcome would lead to it being praised.
|
11:41 |
: Sure feels like it.
|
11:41 |
: What is the path to becoming a submarine pitcher? Like, at what point does a player say “Nothing else has worked, may as well try this!”
|
11:41 |
: I used to suggest in Houston that before a pitcher gets released, you put him on the mound, drop him down and see how it works….
|
11:42 |
: Scherzer has to be coming in next right?
|
11:42 |
: Don’t think so, but I wonder if he’s in Roberts’ mind for a potential 10th.
|
11:43 |
: Who was the first ever submarine pitcher? Like who came up with this amazing premise?
|
11:43 |
: y’all are forgetting that the scoring is Runs Score / Pitchers Used
|
11:43 |
: Right? I have no idea how to watch that game and say the Dodgers have screwed up their pitching.
|
11:43 |
: Lots of early guys had weird deliveries
|
11:43 |
: Do we even know?
|
11:44 |
: Liek Carl Mays was famous for it a century ago. But he almost certainly wasn’t the first
|
11:44 |
: We need secret bullpens so pitchers can suprise everwhen when they come in, WWE style
|
11:44 |
: You all debate your funky deliveries while I wear my batting stance crown.
|
11:45 |
: That crown belongs to Julio Franco.
|
11:45 |
: Amd we
|
11:45 |
: And we’ve got a real rally
|
11:45 |
: My Wife’s Mother’s cousin’s brother is at the game. He said Kershaw is getting loose… 🙂
|
11:45 |
: Is that the mom who works for Nintendo?
|
11:46 |
: Ben has to be enjoying himself
|
11:46 |
: It’s been a terrific game
|
11:46 |
: HOYT WILHELM. I was trying to think of that dude’s name for like a week finally got it thank god
|
11:46 |
: Man, tough as tough a spot here for the Giants. Surprised Kapler is keeping Rogers in….
|
11:47 |
: Rogers seems way off. Gotta get someone hot, and FAST.
|
11:48 |
: And then he whiffs Seager. Baseball is wonderful.
|
11:48 |
: Huge K
|
11:48 |
: Is Trea Turner Due, the longest thread in the history of forums
|
11:48 |
: This has become the Seager is due chat.
|
11:48 |
: And Doval is coming in.
|
11:49 |
: Well, being due *is* the most important factor by far!
|
11:50 |
: Weird move to Doval here. Turner kills FB.
|
11:51 |
: He does but he hasn’t been killing much of anything this series…except Dodger fans
|
11:51 |
: How long is Doval going at this point? Would they consider 2.1?
|
11:51 |
: you know, and it feels weird to say this… i think i’m tired of baseball for a while…. I’ve watched these teams all year, I know the players, the drama…. but I can’t make myself care… should I turn the game off and wait for spring or try to stick around to see if magic happens?
|
11:51 |
: I’d be shocked at more than four outs.
|
11:51 |
: Do what makes you happy! Don’t overthink it
|
11:51 |
: Yup, and don’t do what does NOT make you happy.
|
11:52 |
: And Turner didn’t kill that fastball.
|
11:53 |
: And they escape
|
11:53 |
: Indeed he did not. What a frickin’ game. (Family chat)
|
11:53 |
: I have to admit to dropping curses from time to time
|
11:53 |
: This game has not disappointed
|
11:53 |
: You want to hear my curse, listen to the podcast.
|
11:55 |
: Dan, quick video game aside (because I think KG is a JRPG guy): How good is Metroid: Dread?
|
11:55 |
: Couldn’t tell you!
|
11:55 |
: I’m a JRPG guy too!
|
11:55 |
: speaking of, when does the next ep drop KG
|
11:55 |
: Always Friday morning.
|
11:55 |
: I beat Cold Steel IV in Japanese without speaking the language.
|
11:55 |
: I’m not JUST a JRPG guy….
|
11:55 |
: Does the FO feed much information to the manager prior to a game like this? If so, what?
|
11:55 |
: Tons. Advance reports for each series are book-like.
|
11:56 |
: Kenley Jansen has the ninth. That’s the right call.
|
11:56 |
: what’s an FO?
|
11:56 |
: Front Office
|
11:56 |
: I’m 41 and my parents weren’t born yet.
|
11:56 |
: ooh it is really cool that this is happening 70 years after the bobby thompson game
|
11:57 |
: My mom wasn’t but my dad was
|
11:57 |
: Jansen 6 outs?
|
11:57 |
: Would need a low pitch count here. VERY low.
|
11:57 |
: He was born in 1949, mom in 1954
|
11:57 |
: He was only five years older than me when he died, which does seem weird
|
11:57 |
: What could CNN possibly need a streaming service for?
|
11:58 |
: Both of my parents (from Brooklyn) remembered the Thompson home run.
|
11:58 |
: Jeff Toobin’s OnlyFans
|
11:58 |
: Missed the earlier extra inning games, are they doing runners on second in extras during the playoffs?
|
11:58 |
: Nope. We are once again pure.
|
11:58 |
: Is that why they call it the hot corner?
|
11:58 |
: Naturally!~
|
11:58 |
: Now we’re in the NSFW area.
|
11:59 |
: I legit thought Ruf was retired.
|
11:59 |
: Any idea what were the ‘philosophical differences’ for Schildt getting canned?
|
11:59 |
: Fangraphs needs an only fans. Perhaps that can be the next subscription tier
|
11:59 |
: FanGraphs OnlyFans – if you subscribe, it’s turned OFF for you
|
11:59 |
: a … fun … subplot here is that it could be Kenley’s last appearance as a Dodger
|
11:59 |
: We have Twitch
|
12:00 |
: If Bobby Thompson steps out of a time machine right now, is he still on the roster because he was when he stepped into it?
|
12:00 |
: no
|
12:00 |
: Happy Friday East Coast
|
12:00 |
: He’d be unsigned
|
12:00 |
: Ice cream!
|
12:01 |
: Nope, still three hours away.
|
12:01 |
: He would be missing from the timeline and presumably released
|
12:01 |
: Now us East Coasters know the outcome of the game like the New Zealanders
|
12:01 |
: If San Fran wins, Webb gets MVP right?
|
12:01 |
: PRETTY sure there is no LDS award.
|
12:01 |
: Whoever wins is gonna be exhausted for the Braves series.
|
12:02 |
: Did #WeirdBaseball gain any traction in the Astros FO?
|
12:02 |
: I did not try.
|
12:02 |
: HIs contract would likely not be in line with the CBA rules anyway, so either the league or PA would get it voided
|
12:02 |
: I feel like most of my postseason memories from the last decade include Kenley Jansen in the late innings
|
12:02 |
: *** IRC Style Banner in a Web Browser in 2021 ***
|
12:02 |
: If the game goes long and Max comes in, what’s his leash like? 40-50 pitches?
|
12:03 |
: /join #fangraphschat
|
12:03 |
: I think it depends on the game
|
12:04 |
: My god, what a game.
|
12:05 |
## # ## #. ## ### #/ ## ## ## # ## ## # #( ##. # ## ## ## ## ## ## ##, ## *#/ /# ###* ,#/# |
12:05 |
: dang, too narrow
|
12:06 |
: What’s IRC without ascii art?
|
12:06 |
:
|
12:06 |
: Does the manager have access to spin rate/other pitch metrics during the game or is that not allowed?
|
12:06 |
: Team has access to the statcast feed I believe.
|
12:06 |
: Would Max Scherzer getting the game-winning hit be the best way for this game to end?
|
12:06 |
: It’s up there!
|
12:07 |
: GET EXCITED ALERT: Max Scherzer is warming up in the pen.
|
12:07 |
: Where’s my dot matrix printer?
|
12:07 |
: That’s definitely NSFW.
|
12:07 |
: Dan just murdered ASCII art
|
12:08 |
Are we going to extra innings in this one?
Yes, yes we are (64.2% | 72 votes)
No, no we are not (35.7% | 40 votes)
Total Votes: 112
|
12:08 |
: Who’s up in the Dodgers bullpen?
|
12:08 |
: I just told you! Max Scherzer!
|
12:08 |
:
|
12:08 |
: my vote for “no” was mostly wishful thinking
|
12:09 |
: I’ve never been known as a good listener
|
12:09 |
: Man, we’re reaching our reader peak after midnight ET!
|
12:10 |
: OMG yes Scherzer homer in the top of the tenth.
|
12:10 |
: TLR would say that was intentional
|
12:10 |
: i didn’t have Alex Wood on my bingo card
|
12:11 |
: Gavin Lux sounds like an obnoxious British billionaire who made his money in faux-luxury hotels
|
12:11 |
: and probably owns a tabloid
|
12:11 |
Do you HAVE to wake up before 9am ET tomorrow for work or personal reasons?
I do (53.5% | 61 votes)
Sleeping in (46.4% | 53 votes)
Total Votes: 114
|
12:11 |
The Dodgers and Giants have each spent ~1,500 innings over the last six months proving themselves to be the best teams in the game and two equally-matched titans, and now it’s “next run wins”. Lol.
|
12:11 |
: Have either of you ever met David Price? he seems like a cool guy.
|
12:11 |
: Only very briefly
|
12:11 |
: I have not.
|
12:12 |
: Mountain time rocks
|
12:12 |
: Does TLR coach the wsox in 2023 if they don’t make it out of the first round again?
|
12:12 |
: No
|
12:12 |
: I would like to formally announce that I am having fun
|
12:12 |
: do a west coast / east coast poll??
|
12:12 |
What time zone are you in?
East (40.0% | 72 votes)
Central (18.3% | 33 votes)
Mountain (7.7% | 14 votes)
West (31.6% | 57 votes)
West of the 48 (Hawaii, Asia, etc) (1.6% | 3 votes)
East of the 48 (Europe, Africa, etc) (0.5% | 1 vote)
Total Votes: 180
|
12:13 |
: HIGH STRESS TIME
|
12:13 |
: It’s only 8pm, guys. Quit complaining.
|
12:13 |
: Two on, one out, Cody Bellinger.
|
12:13 |
: They should settle this with an arm wrestling match between Friedman and Frahan
|
12:14 |
: It’s 9:15 where both of these teams play.
|
12:14 |
: This would be a good moment for Bellinger to remember that whole baseball thing
|
12:15 |
: Please tell me that FG is running a chat for the Sox/Astros tomorrow night!
|
12:15 |
: Sorry, we are not.
|
12:16 |
: We don’t want to do too many or you’ll get tired of them
|
12:16 |
: Especially of me since I’m in so many of them
|
12:16 |
: Used to live in cst but west coast now, definitely better for sports west coast time. Baseball at 9am on occasion and football starting at 10am not terrible.
|
12:16 |
: Cody going deep now would be very MLB post-season
|
12:16 |
: Bellinger, happy for him
|
12:17 |
: Dangit! I saw this before Bellinger got the hit
|
12:17 |
: Bellinger atones
|
12:17 |
: He remembered!
|
12:17 |
: Great timing!
|
12:17 |
: Rise Son Of Clay!
|
12:17 |
: Cody Bellinger’s nightmare season is defined by an inability to get to premium velocity, so you throw a middle-middle slider?
|
12:18 |
: Shodai, I have COdy/Clay issues.
|
12:18 |
:
|
12:18 |
: Feel great for Bellinger. After the nightmare this year must’ve been for him
|
12:19 |
: I feel like my soul just left my body
|
12:19 |
: Scherzer in anyway?
|
12:19 |
: BRING ME SCHERZER OR BRING ME DEATH
|
12:19 |
: He’s warming!
|
12:20 |
: At this point, just using relievers as relievers would be the weird thing
|
12:21 |
: That just won worst bunt of the year article by far.
|
12:22 |
: “We’re so confident about this one-run lead in the most important game of the year that we’re going to FRIGGING bunt!”
|
12:22 |
: That bunt seemed ill-advised
|
12:22 |
: That seemed…ill advised?
|
12:22 |
: what was that bunt
|
12:23 |
was Bellinger going?
: |
12:24 |
: On the bunt? Looked like safety squeeze.
|
12:24 |
: Scherzer’s first pitch is going to 109 mph. I can see his heart beating
|
12:24 |
: Scherzer closes this out on ten pitches, he still starts game 1?
|
12:25 |
: I’ve got no idea at this point!
|
12:25 |
: Gonsolin game 1?
|
12:25 |
: Crawford, Bryant, Slater due up.
|
12:25 |
: Scherzer coming in.
|
12:25 |
: Has a pitcher ever had an immaculate inning where they missed all nine pitches or have there been at least a few called strikes each time?
|
12:26 |
: It has to have happened ONCE right?
|
12:26 |
: There actually haven’t been that many immaculate innings. Fewer than no-nos
|
12:26 |
: Wade hits for Slater
|
12:27 |
: I may stroke out from too much baseball goodness if the Giants tie it here
|
12:27 |
: They haven’t reliably tracked immaculate innings for that long. There may be more than we know.
|
12:28 |
Fine, I’ll let you ingrates predict a game result. Bottom of the ninth
1-2-3 inning (34.4% | 32 votes)
Giants get runner to 1st; don’t score (25.8% | 24 votes)
Giants get runner(s) in scoring position; don’t score (15.0% | 14 votes)
Giants tie game, we get extras (12.9% | 12 votes)
Giants win (11.8% | 11 votes)
Total Votes: 93
|
12:28 |
: A homer here and you can upgrade him to Crawlincoln
|
12:28 |
: Was Doval best pitcher to be in that spot against Bellinger? Seems a lot for a rookie pitcher, with two on against the Dodgers, expecting him to maintain for the hold to give his team a chance for NLCS is a lot of pressure.
|
12:28 |
: Honestly, he might have been their best if he just threw fastballs….
|
12:29 |
: Or maybe even Crawcadillac
|
12:29 |
: He made solid contact, so no downgrade to Crawgeo
|
12:29 |
: Off the bat I was sure that was a hit for Crawford
|
12:29 |
: I just took drowsy cold medication, whatever happens please be the last half inning
|
12:29 |
: those are terrible puns Dan
|
12:30 |
: Holy crap on that E.
|
12:30 |
: I audibly gasped
|
12:30 |
: .700 xBA for Crawford there
|
12:30 |
: turner, what?!
|
12:30 |
: Justin Turner is a sneaky bad fielder
|
12:30 |
: Correct. 40 Third baseman.
|
12:30 |
: This feels like a turn-ing point
|
12:30 |
: 9/10 on the that can’t happen scale
|
12:30 |
: dont go there Dan.. you are better than that
|
12:31 |
: I’m not better than puns
|
12:31 |
: Late night Lamonte?!?!?
|
12:32 |
: That was a Crawpinto
|
12:32 |
: Only on FanGraphs After Dark!
|
12:32 |
: I did not know that nickname existed, and I love it.
|
12:32 |
: Google returns results on Late night Lamonte.
|
12:32 |
: That ball for a split second off the bat…. yikes
|
12:32 |
: Scherzer looked panicked for a moment there lol
|
12:33 |
: Turner atones with a 5-4-3 double play. I can feel it.
|
12:33 |
: So he’s due?
|
12:34 |
: absolutely cruel pitch there
|
12:34 |
: Remember, CODY was due!
|
12:34 |
: The first pitcher to master the intentional cement mixer will be deadly
|
12:34 |
: Yikes that was middle-middle
|
12:34 |
: Advance him, he might be a 0-0 auto-taker
|
12:35 |
: And that’s it!
|
12:35 |
: Damn, no hesitation on ringing him up and sending everyone home
|
12:36 |
: Oh man that was close to not being a swing
|
12:36 |
: Not the finish anyone wanted.
|
12:36 |
: There is literally no more fitting way for this to end then on a check swing call
|
12:36 |
: What can I say? That was a fantastic game. We had fun. I think there’s a chat for ALCS game 3 on Monday! We’ll see you then and thanks so much for hanging with us tonight. The crowd grew throughout the night and we appreciate you. If you had a good time tonight, please support FanGraphs!
|
12:36 |
: That game lived up to the hype!
|
12:36 |
: Great giffabke Giants fan reaction into he broadcast right there
|
12:37 |
: Thanks for coming everyone!
|
12:37 |
: We enjoyed having you chill with us
|
12:37 |
: Thanks guys!! Fun as always!
|
12:37 |
: Thanks Kevin and Dan!
|
12:37 |
: Thanks for the chat!
|
12:37 |
: Subscribe to FanGraphs!!
|
12:37 |
: Thanks guys!
|
12:37 |
: Disgraceful. I had no interest in the winner. As a baseball fan…disgraceful.
|
12:37 |
: Thank you
|
12:37 |
: Didn’t even call it dramatically
|
12:37 |
: Thanks Dan and KG!
|
12:38 |
: Thanks buddies!
|
Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.