FanGraphs NL Wild Card Chat

Craig Edwards: Hello All. Welcome to playoff baseball. The queue is now open. Here are a few links you might find handy tonight and during the playoffs.

Craig Edwards: First, our predictions: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/heres-who-is-going-to-win-the-…

Craig Edwards: Tonight’s preview: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-the-nl-wild-card-game/

Craig Edwards: Live Scoreboard with in-game probabilities: https://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx?date=2019-10-01

Craig Edwards: Playoff Odds: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds Dan also came up with some ZiPS playoff odds you can get to from that page.

Craig Edwards:

Craig Edwards:

Craig Edwards: With that, we’ll let the queue fill up a bit and Dan Syzmborksi, Tony Wolfe, and myself will start taking questions shortly.

Ryan: Two innings from Scherzer; three innings from Strasburg; and they’re ready to go for games 1 and 2 of the NLDS.  Would you endorse this plan for the Nats?

Craig Edwards: Interesting idea, but more important just to win this game. That probably requires more than five innings from Scherzer and Strasburg combined. Just let Scherzer go until he is about to lose it. In game, when to pull your ace is a really tough choice made tougher by Scherzer’s recent injury history.

Dan Szymborski: You don’t want to burn out guys you need later, but you definitely don’t want to go TOO deep into the Nats bullpen.

Stagger Lee: Why do Brewers fans act like Yelich has passed away and is that a justifiable reason to root for them tonight?

Dan Szymborski: “Let’s do it 50% for Yeli and then 50% for ourselves!” isn’t quite as inspiring.

Wayne: Pitchers likely to throw tonight & their ERA-/FIP- since August 1st…

Scherzer 106/83
Strasburg 76/87
Corbin 73/92
Hudson 32/78

Woodruff 0/10
Suter 11/54
Pomeranz 54/60
Lyles 57/102
Hader 77/82

Dan Szymborski: Well, Scherzer has velocity!

Alex: What’s your best guess on what happens to Callaway and Kapler in the coming days? Seems like the more time this stalls, the better it is for them…

Dan Szymborski: I bet Kapler stays, Callaway goes.

Dan Szymborski: And: hello everyone!

Craig Edwards: Losing Yelich makes the Brewers more of an underdog and lots of people like to root for the underdog. I don’t think it’s that irrationals in terms of reasons to cheer for a team.

Dan Szymborski: I could’ve sworn that was going to be down in the corner.

Tony Wolfe: I was gonna say the opposite of Dan re: managers, but Callaway’s weirdness with the media/FO certainly don’t help his case.

Dan Szymborski: My feeling is that he’s not the a guy BvW brought in, so there’s less investment in there

Brother Ky: Where is Tony, I came here for Tony

Dylan R: What’s the chance the Brewers do the “pitch the starter for a single batter then switch to manipulate matchups” thing again?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a little too cute with the staff not as deep as last year

Craig Edwards: Only 23% of people thought the Brewers would win while roughly half were rooting for them. The win probability when factoring in talent level (the gray line) started at 64% and is already down to 45%.

Charles: Second year of the Brewers outperforming their Pythagorean record. Is it still too early to call it something other than an aberration or “luck” with sequencing, or there something to it? And if so what; can the very clear division in both usage and ability between the “when leading” and “when losing” groups in the bullpen be the whole reason?

Dan Szymborski: The natural error is enought hat you can’t really call it a skill

Dan Szymborski: And there’s very little long-term relationship between bullpen quality and pythag

Tony Wolfe: I think they let Woodruff go for a bit. He’s been very, very good since coming back. Probably not longer than three innings, but I think he gets *some* rope.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not as if Scherzer doesn’t have his stuff

Thom: What’s the likelihood of Washington using any pitcher other than Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty high

Tony Wolfe: Doolittle, for one

Wayne: Brent Suter averged 16.5 seconds between pitches compared to an MLB average of 24.9 seconds. If every pitcher worked at Suter’s pace the season would have been around 1,700 hours shorter, which works out to about 42 minutes per game. No question.

Dan Szymborski: I can only root for the Brewers when they’re wearing the proper logo. I don’t want to encourage them to use the M.

Craig Edwards: Keeping hitters in the box would help a lot, I think. I’m not sure Be More Like Brent is going to catch on.

Tony Wolfe: Well not with that slogan, at least

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Those are the Brewers to pull for! One of the best logos in baseball history.

Thom: If hypothetically the Brewers were to get all the way through their batting order in the first or second inning, would they even bother letting Woodruff bat, or just immediately lift him for a PH and go full bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what the Nats are doing

Dan Szymborski: I’d be more inclined to pinch-hit for him and have him ready for early next series if the Brewers had a large lead under this scenario

Dan Szymborski: Imagine it’s 6-0 when Woodruff bats – in that scenario, I think you have a good argument.

Craig Edwards: GIven he’ll be up fourth, there probably aren’t a lot of situations where it would be worth forgoing three or four innings you probably need from him. Asking 8 innings from the pen is a lot when Woodruff is probably better for some of those innings.

Philip Christy: Y’all and 538 have nearly the same odds for MIL vs. WAS, but nearly opposite odds for A’s vs. Rays. They factor travel & rest into their odds, do you?

Dan Szymborski: I do rest, not travel

Bruce Hooper: If the Nats win, does this break the “Natinals have never won a playoff series” meme?

Dan Szymborski: Some smartasses will say ONE GAME IS NOT A SERIES

Tony Wolfe: I say one game is not a series

Tony Wolfe: I say that

Craig Edwards: Nationals have never made the NLCS.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t be too mean to the Nats as I get my prescriptions there

Stuafoo: Haven’t followed wash too much. Has Robles hit 8th all year? Is this a turn over the lineup kind of thing?

Dan Szymborski: Someone’s arm is going to launch into the crowd they way they’re throwing

Craig Edwards: For a lot of the year, yes. Sometimes ninth and sometimes seventh. You can see here: https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/nationals/player-usage/batting-lineup

Tony Wolfe: Think he’s been down there a lot of the time I’ve seen them, yeah

Jsto: Any chance Hader would go more than 2 innings?

Craig Edwards: Yes, but probably not.

Dan Szymborski: The Nats have been all ove rthe eplace order wise except 1-3-4

Jim: Is Davey Martinez’s job in jeopardy if the Nats suffer another first round exit?

Tony Wolfe: If the Nationals have the tying/go-ahead run on in the seventh, I think you’ll see Hader

Dan Szymborski: I think the post all-star surge saved him…for now

Jack: Would you have included Strasburg and Corbin on the Nats’ roster instead of someone with more experience working out of the bullpen, like Suero?

Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah

Craig Edwards: for one game, win or go home, you want your best pitchers.

Cubbie23: Assuming the Nationals win tonight (not a given), is it possible they could do some real damage in the postseason given their starting pitching? The Capitals finally won the Stanley Cup after years of playoff ineptitude, could the Nationals be the next Washington team to make a run?

Dan Szymborski: They *can*. Having a 1-2-3- like that makes them very very dangerous in playoff baseball

Craig Edwards: I think this is true if you are just meaning will the Nationals win before their NFL or NBA counterparts. As for this year, who knows.

Belli Flop: What’s the over/under on Dan chili questions?

Dan Szymborski: You guys are going to get me in trouble!

stever20: Did Nats make the mistake of starting what has been a struggling Scherzer instead of Strasburg?  Scherzer just hasn’t been himself since returning.

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure you can’t not start him. Strasburg has been very good this year, but Scherzer at his best is better than anyone. It is hard not to take that chance.

Tony Wolfe: Washington’s bullpen is going to make life extremely difficult for them, but like Sam and Ben discussed on the EW pod, it wouldn’t be unheard of to see their group bunch together a decent enough month to get by

Craig Edwards: oh dear.

Dan Szymborski: Though it’s increasingly looking like a moot point!

Dan Szymborski: If you can’t rely on Scherzer, you’re not going that far through October anyway, so you might as well use him

sucramrenrut: I was going to ask which of Scherzer or Kershaw is going to be the GOAT who gives up untimely homers this post-season, but…

Guess : Over-Under on passed balls bt Grandal tonight

Tony Wolfe: I’ll be shocked to see anyone *not* give up untimely homers

stever20: For them to have Woodruff hit up 6-0, there’d have to be 4 straight homers to start the 2nd.

Dan Szymborski: Talking more a theoreitcal

Craig Edwards: He started 124 games this year and has 8 passed balls, so I think you set it at 0.5. Probably take the under, too.

Charles Finley: The juiced ball sucks for baseball, T/F.  It’s supposed to be hard to hit home runs.

Dan Szymborski: I agree. It’s a bit too easy.

Craig Edwards: I do think it isn’t great for baseball. There are other, better options to increase scoring that don’t encourage even more strikeouts, like making the strike zone smaller.

Lunar verLander: I agree with Tony. It’s called the “Wild Card Game”, not the “Wild Card Series”.

Dan Szymborski: But is the playoff series made up of the Wild Card Game?

One Game is Not a Series : Batting Grisham leadoff in a playoff game is a Novel idea

Craig Edwards: You make a firm argument.

Dan Szymborski: And again, it’s not like Scherzer’s stuff isn’t good tonight

Stuafoo: One game is not a series, one point is not a line

Morbo: Does Scherzer make it 4 innings?

Craig Edwards: I doubt it.

Tony Wolfe: Boy Grisham really cooled off in the last couple weeks, didn’t he?

Charles Finley: Do we need to increase scoring, though?  Is that a goal MLB should have?

Dan Szymborski: You’re in the Picture is commonly referred to as the shortest running television SERIES

Joe: Tony’s a smartass!

Charles Finley: Do you guys personally know Nate Silver?

Craig Edwards: I don’t know that 2019 level is good for baseball, but I don’t think 2014 levels are. It’s important to have baserunners and runs to have a lively game.

Dan Szymborski: Only as an acquaintance over email and stuff. We’d recognize each other and possibly eat together if we ran into each other at a deli, but I’m not asking Nate to help me move a couch on a Saturday.

Alex: Uncomfortable confession: I’m much better at spotting Marlins Man than Waldo at this point

Belli Flop: Should I be watching baseball or studying for a history exam? Convince me to make the wrong decision.

5 Run Homer: Anthony Rendon with some metal bassist-ass facial hair going on

Craig Edwards: You should watch the game, but know that as far as history goes, you might be doomed to repeat it.

Jason P.: Increased scoring leads to more blowouts

Alex: Is it wrong that I judge the importance of a game by which numbered row Marlins Man sits in?

Craig Edwards: there’s a balance. This year didn’t have it.

Nick: If the Nationals lose this game, is Rendon more likely (unfinished business in Washington!) or less likely (can’t wait to leave a loser!) to sign an extension?

Morbo: Dan, Zips seems to hate Jack Flaherty based based on the odds of the Cardinals winning his starts Keuchel a and earlier today when he was listed as starting game 1. It seems pretty clear to me that he’s a better than   What gives?

Craig Edwards: It won’t be an extension anymore as the season will be over, but probably more likely to sign with Washington as the Nationals don’t want to end on a bad note and then lose their best position player.

The Buffalo Bills Dodgers of LA: What would you prefer for the Wild Card round? Stick with the 1 game elimination or a best of 3 series?

Dan Szymborski: It’s more that ZiPS still likes Mikolas and prefers the Cards offense against lefties

Joe: Chili is stew. Getting worked up over stew is TOTALLY WORTH IT

Stuafoo: Shouldn’t the sign say Nationals’ Park?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t have to be a possessive

Dan Szymborski: It’s the park where Nationals play

Craig Edwards: I think winner take all games are great, though I wouldn’t be opposed to a day night doubleheader where if the visiting team wins the first game, they make it, but if the home team wins the first game, they play a second to advance. It would provide some incentive for the top wild card spot and provide more of an advantage to division winners.

Charles Finley: Dunno if Nate would really be about moving a couch anyway

Dan Szymborski: I’m not either.

Craig Edwards: To add to Dan’s point on Flaherty, remember that both Flaherty starts are on the road.

Vinny A.: Craig, are the Cardinals gonna have enough offense to compete with the Braves?

Quadrangular: How under-the-radar is this St. Louis bullpen? Are we saying Giovanny Gallegos isn’t a household name yet??

Craig Edwards: It is a pretty even series, so they just need a couple guys in the middle of the order to have a good few games.

Dan Szymborski: I won’t complain about players that made me look smart this year

Tony Wolfe: hey! a fly ball that looked good off the bat that didn’t go out!

Dan Szymborski: Big moment for F.H. Furr Plumbing, Heating & Air Conditioning

Craig Edwards: Gallegos hasn’t been quite as sharp the last couple of months. Could be the long season wearing on him. Rest might help him.

Fire Adam Gase: If the NY Mets fire Callaway, their next manager is:

Tony Wolfe: Carlos Beltran

Dan Szymborski: The worst option they interview

Tony Wolfe: Just kidding someone way less exciting

Dan Szymborski: come on, Lloyd McClendon!

Tony Wolfe: Joe Riggleman!

Daniel J: Speaking of the cardinals bullpen, why leave Gant out? Is Cabrera really a viable option?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe the Mets can bring back someone hwo managed in the 80s.

Dan Szymborski: Bucky Dent is only a couple years older than Joe Maddon.

Craig Edwards: Gant hasn’t been great lately after a really good start to the season. He might just be worn out. Cabrera throws hard and can soak up innings in a blowout which isn’t on their roster elsewhere. He’s had a solid September and the Braves have a bunch of lefties.

Lunar verLander: Introducing the new manager for the Mets: Clint Hurdle

Sans Yellich: How far can the Brewers go this postseason

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Bud Black can half-manage both the Rockies and the Mets. Both teams are better off with only 81 games of Black than 162!

Stuafoo: Are we just naming former Mariners managers now?

Eric Gregg : Bamburger

Dan Szymborski: Bambi died a whiel back, no?

lee: I think the Dodgers would probably eat the Brewers, but the idea of Grandal’s Revenge (not a type of food poisoning?) scares me

Craig Edwards: They are in it, so they can go all the way, but they still have to win this one and be underdogs for every series from here on out.

Tony Wolfe: Eric Wedge!

Phil: Pinch hit for Scherzer in the 3rd?

Craig Edwards: He’s batting second, so I’m guessing no, no matter what happens with Robles.

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda weird how old Joe Maddon is. Earl Weaver was retired for a decade before he was Maddon’s age. Danny Darwin is younger.

Hot take: Eric Thames is baseball’s Carmen San Diego

Craig Edwards: I don’t think Eric Thames is a world famous criminal.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Isn’t the best criminal the one nobody knows is a criminal? You think a pro like Eric Thames brags about the time he stole the Brandenburg Gate or the Mona Lisa?

Stuafoo: Bob Melvin! Wait, we fired him and he’s actually really good it seems.

Guest: @jonallendc
The Nationals keep saving the best player they ever drafted — Stephen Strasburg — for some future playoff run.

Craig Edwards: Wouldn’t be the first time.

Craig Edwards: to be fair, going with scherzer is defensible.

lee: Edwin Jackson is Carmen San Diego in disguise

Craig Edwards: Why would you impersonate a known criminal? Seems dangerous?

Dan Szymborski: Are there any 80s NL West catchers that didn’t become a manager?

Silver Skis: Roman ad, drink! No wait, don’t do that, you don’t want to DIE.

Joel: I guess this is the formula for beating Cole, Verlander, Grienke: pray for 1 mistake and hit it out when you get it. Good luck

Morbo: The Mets can’t pick the worst option for a new Manager. The Royals have already beat them to it

Blue: So far Max Scherzer looks like Edwin Jackson in disguise.

Craig Edwards: dang.

Dan Szymborski: I think to *shatter* a bat, it has to not just break, it has to launch pieces everywhere

Lunar verLander: Shout out to the managers being able to give mid-game interviews…have to think they’re more nerve wracked than the fans.

Eric Gregg : Grady Little?   Would be fun to see him manage third time through the order.

Dan Szymborski: Guys, I don’t think you need a distinctive sound to realize the ball hit something metal about 8 inches behind you.

twb: I was talking to a Yankees scout this season at a Brewer’s game, and he said that most scouts are former catchers

Dan Szymborski: They’re already good at crouching and staring!

Nitro Nic: People always said it makes a different sound of his mask

Ryan: If you made an All Star team of Brewers and Nationals players, would they be favored in a series against the Dodgers?

Dan Szymborski: yes

Tony Wolfe: absolutely

Craig Edwards: Astros went 58-20 in game started by Verlander, Cole, or Greinke. It’s not impossible to beat them.

Fire Adam Gase: T/F: Joe Girardi lands a managing gig this offseason and if so, where?

Dan Szymborski: F

Dan Szymborski: The Tigers even won 47 games.

I drink Dodger fans’ tears: What’s everyone drinking this baseball post season evening?

Dan Szymborski: Milk. I’m trying to cut down on the drinking.

Dan Szymborski: and I was eating cereal

Tommytoms: It’s definitely the 2019 playoffs. All runs on homers

Tommytoms: How are the cats Dan?

Tony Wolfe: Water, because I have a wedding in four days (not mine) that I should preserve myself for

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen them since about 15 minutes before the game started when Cassiopeia glared Justinian off my office windowsill.

Craig Edwards: water. a wonderful beverage.

Morbo: Maddon goes to San Diego? Y/n

Dan Szymborski: Not the craziest idea

Jeremy Broken : What happened to Jeffress?

Craig Edwards: He was hurt and they needed the roster spot.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been light drinking because I drank WAY too much on all-star weekend.

Nolan: A follow up on Ryan’s question: if we combined the Tigers and Orioles for 2020, would the combined team make the playoffs?

Morbo: A black sour ale called apocrypha. it’s amazing

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think they make the playoffs if you throw in the Royals

Craig Edwards: I think Dan did this with the Orioles and Royals last year. Or just thought about it?

Dan Szymborski: I was going to but Lindbergh beat me too it

Silver Skis: Not sure if it’s been mentioned yet but it looks like they’re doing a statcast and saber broadcast on espn2 tomorrow.

Dan Szymborski: I spent valuable writing time making the logo for the possible article

Craig Edwards: glad to see it.

Dan Szymborski:

jhcards: Hader goes O/U 2 IP?

Tony Wolfe: juan no

Craig Edwards: i think under

Dan Szymborski: I’d say that was a Hundley-esque cat, but Hundley would have run in the wrong direction and not be in the same frame as the ball.

Craig Edwards: And people wonder why pitchers are always trying to strike batters out.

Tony Wolfe: My guess is 2 on the nose

Lunar verLander: Who’s gonna be the most disappointed in their managerial search?

Craig Edwards: Frank Stallone

Dan Szymborski: It’s always Mets

Mitch: Sam Miller looked at how many teams it would take to combine to be better than the Big 3

Joel: I was looking at fangraphs WAR leaderboards, holy moly, where did this Marcus Semien season come from?

Tony Wolfe: Pirates fans, when they realize the new manager also can’t spend Bob Nutting’s money

Dan Szymborski: Semien was having a normal really good season and then just went nuts the last couple months

Craig Edwards: He really improved his defense. Rian wrote about his season: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/marcus-semiens-defense-is-a-team-effort/

Cheese Balls: Is that Utz ad making anyone else hungry or just me

Craig Edwards: a lot of the comments in the chat are making me think I should crack a beer.

twb: thames should steal home – the antithesis of the game so far

Dan Szymborski: Bob Nutting’s Gone Flake!

Craig Edwards: I’ve heard Thames is a criminal mastermind known the world over for his exploits and travel. A steal isn’t out of the question.

Dan Szymborski: I was so bummed, I picked up some Utz crab chips when I was in Baltimore but trying to open them in the car, I dumped them all on the floor of my car in traffic

Jeremy: As a Mets fan, I’ll be happy as long as their next manager isn’t having screaming fits at the media…and isn’t Wally Backman.

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure if your bar is too low or too high.

Guest: Any of Astros/Dodgers/Yankees to win World Series is -240, would you take that bet?

Craig Edwards: What fun is that. Take the field.

Dan Szymborski: That was a Francoeurian swing

Fire Adam Gase: I for one think the Mets should interview Mike Francesa to be their next manager.

Dan Szymborski: Murray Chass!

Lunar verLander: Galaxy Brain move: Mets fire Callaway, only to name the Wilpons as the new GM.

Craig Edwards: But how much will Francesa charge for that interview?

Tony Wolfe: Tom Coughlin for Mets manager

Tommy Edman : Am I the hero America needs?

Craig Edwards: You’ve already got the Utility Belt.

Dan Szymborski: I actually have a sad memory of Carmen Sandiego. I was the only kid in my 5th grade class going to a different middle school than everyone else (the middle school road boundaries were one road different than the elementary school ones). So the whole 5th grade class went to the the middle school for orientation but I was left alone all days, so they just stuck me on a mac all day and I played the entirety of carmen sandiego.

Belli Flop: Awwwww on Barrett

Dan Szymborski: Which kinda makes me wonder, why they didn’t just let me stay home from school that day?

Dan Szymborski: I need to go back and give Timonium Elementary a piece of my mind!

NotMikeMatheny: I think mike matheny would make a great Mets manager

Eric Gregg : Tim Tebow interviewing for manager job right after the series

Dan Szymborski: player-manager-GM

Morbo: Fun fact: Tommy Edmond’s season prorated to a full season has been worth ≈6.0 war

Dan Szymborski: Edman wasn’t *that* far from making my NL ROY ballot

Guest: Which recent traded Cubs prospect/player hurts them to think about?  Torres? Jimenez? Soler? Cease? Vogelbach??? Cub fans, you can voluntarily exempt yourself from answering.

Tony Wolfe: Torres

Craig Edwards: I’m assuming it is Jimenez because Quintana is underrated and came after the World Series.

Silver Skis: Is Rendon going to do better than the $210 mil he might potentially be turning down?

Tony Wolfe: God I hope so

Craig Edwards: Doesn’t hurt to find out. He’s basically the only guy out there and it’s not like the Nats are going to spend their available money on a starting pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: I think he can do better. It’s worth the risk; he’s too good to get Keucheled

Backup Catchers: Raudy Read sounds like a NASCAR driver

Lunar verLander: …There’s no way “Timonium” is an actual word

Tony Wolfe: I don’t think he’ll get $300 million, but I think somewhere in the $250-$260 million range sounds doable

Dan Szymborski: It’s right next to Cockeysville

Morbo: I allowed my phone’s talk to text to spell Edman wrong and have brought great shame to myself and my family

Alex : When will Acuña surpass Trout as baseball’s best player? 2021? 2022? Never?

Dan Szymborski: Do you guys want a VERY preliminary ZiPS for Rendon contract?

twb: never

twb: yes please

Tony Wolfe: like out-WARs him once or for 2-3 years in a row?

Craig Edwards: I think post-Trout, it will probably rotate around between players like Pujols and A-Rod post-Bonds.

The George Lopez: Will Rendon surpass Machado’s AAV?

Craig Edwards: I have a feeling we are going to be hearing a lot about Rendon’s age in the next few months. I’ll say lower.

Fire Adam Gase: How much of the Yankees interest in Gerrit Cole will depend on how far they make it this postseason?

Tony Wolfe: Little

Craig Edwards: Not too much. They really need him, either way, plus a short run in the postseason amplifies that while a long run in the postseason gives them a lot more money to afford him.

Cardinal Fan 2: Craig, it seems like Tyler O’Neill is going to be traded this offseason? Ugh

Craig Edwards: There are scenarios where he comes back. Hard to know what kind of value he has.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS suggests 7/228 for Rendon

Tony Wolfe: They pretty much know what their rotation looks like, I’d imagine, so they’re either poised to offer him a humongous deal or they’re not. But I don’t think that will change in the next couple weeks unless something catastrophic happens to Gerrit himself

Cardinal Fan 2: Also, they’re probably trading Wong? Also ugh

Craig Edwards: Wait, what? Why would they do that?

Barry G: Reds need bats and have money to spend, does signing Grandal and Didi theoretically  get them in the hunt?

Craig Edwards: They will need some things to break right, but that probably gets them close.

Tony Wolfe: They still need OFers, but that plugs two enormous holes

psweeting: Does Mookie stay in Boston? I thought yes but keep reading articles that say he might get traded

Craig Edwards: I just don’t see them trading him. It doesn’t make sense for a team presumably trying to win next year. I could see them letting Martinez walk.

Cardinals Fan 2: Most tradeable contract on the team, Bill Dewitt’s reluctance to raise payroll, Tommy Edman’s emergence, etc

Fangraph’s Lurker: Which no longer good but has name recognition veteran do the Rockies sign this offseason to play a different position or OF?

Craig Edwards: I don’t see it. A defense-first second baseman under contract for 2/23 isn’t going to net a huge return. Edman can just play a lot of positions next year.

Dan Szymborski: 1B Jorday Mercer!

Dan Szymborski: Jordy

Tony Wolfe: It’d be pretty fun to see the Rockies just say screw it and sign Josh Donaldson to play first

Albert: Could you see the Cubs trading Contreras and signing Grandal on a high-AAV shorter deal?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve already announced they’re out of money

5 Run Homer: This game is moving VERY quickly, feels like

Craig Edwards: I don’t think that fits what the Cubs are trying to do.

Dan Szymborski: It’s like a 2:50 pace but it just feels fast because we’re programmed now

Joe: And Lutherville.

Bobby C.: Why are you guys not chatting about this game?

Tony Wolfe: And some of us expected like four Brewers pitching changes by now

Craig Edwards: We are just letting the game come to us. One question at a time, etc.

Byron Buxton : How does zips come up with the number of years?

Dan Szymborski: I have a model that determines how many years a player is signed for based on history and quality and age

Dan Szymborski: Though in this case, ZiPS suggests 6/195 and I was matching it to what it would be for 7

Guest: Scherzer ain’t Scherzing. What gives?

Natsfan: I’m not used to Scherzer missing so often, or so consistently. All game he’s been missing down and in with his breaking ball, seemingly to the same spot. I’m used to him adjusting faster

Alex: Is there anything we can pinpoint to that is causing Scherzer’s 2nd half struggles?

Dan Szymborski: His *stuff* hasn’t been fine, but he’s been almost nibbling.

Dan Szymborski: HAS been fine

Lunar verLander: Kind of odd that the seats behind home plate are sponsored by Delta; I thought DC was a United hub.

Craig Edwards: Injury. After the All-Star Break he made one start until late-August.

Jeremy: Todd Frazier is going to make a great Rockies 1B.

Silver Skis: Jorday is Jordy’s sassier and better singing brother Dan come on.

Tony Wolfe: Oh Todd’s a good one

FrangraphsCore: I’m not even watching the game. I’m just hanging here in the Chat. I’m more Frangraphs than you!

Dan Szymborski: FranGraphs has all the latest Drescher news.

Stuafoo: Any other one year “prove it” contracts work out any better than Grandal’s that you can think of?

Dan Szymborski: I think there should also be standards for angry bat flips.

Craig Edwards: Josh Donaldson seemed to do pretty well this year.

Dan Szymborski: 10 is Bo breaking his bat over his head

Matt: Is it really fair to call Grandal’s contract a “prove it” contract? More of a victim of circumstance in the market, no?

Craig Edwards: perhaps. he could have gotten more years at less AAV if he wanted, probably.

Best Prove-It: Beltre in Boston for 2010 was 8 WAR for $9 million

Trent: How about Moustakas for the one-year prove it deal?

Craig Edwards: He had to sign another one!

headchopper: With Didi coming off an off-year, can you see him either taking the QO if he’s offered it or being forced into taking a 1-year deal in free agency?

Craig Edwards: I could see him taking it depending on how he feels about the market.

Dan Szymborski: I’m just glad there’s no Ausmus type with their rigid relief roles managing this game

Matthew: which of these commercials will we be most sick of three weeks from now?

Dan Szymborski: Didi should take it I think

Craig Edwards: yes

Dan Szymborski: “Versatility is good,” says world’s most obvious broadcaster.

Belli Flop: That may be the last of Max Scherzer until Spring Training; let’s appreciate his pitching mastery!

Belli Flop: Suter is the thing of Pedro Baez’ nightmares

Guest: Grandal is the best catcher in baseball

Dan Szymborski: Steve Trachsel gets exhausted just watching Suter!

Craig Edwards: Better than Realmuto? Not sure about that.

Nathan: I will never be sick of the Charlize Budweiser one.

Dan Szymborski: It’s always weird when there’s a non-homer hit

Charles Finley: Will Kris Bryant fetch more or less than JT Realmuto if he’s traded this winter?

Dan Szymborski: “Daddy, why did the man stop at first?”

Craig Edwards: More.

Dan Szymborski: “I don’t know son, let’s call an usher.”

Tony Wolfe: I can’t imagine the Cubs accepting what the Marlins got for Realmuto in a deal for Bryant

Charles Finley: Explain why Kris Bryant fetches more

Dan Szymborski: For one, 2 years > 1 year

Matthew: Jeff Francoeur does not know words as long as “versatility”

Craig Edwards: What Tony said.

Tony Wolfe: The Cubs aren’t in as dire of a spot as Miami

Dan Szymborski: Well, as hilariously self-imposed as Miami

Matt: Are the Cubs in a position to attempt a Yankees-esque 4 month rebuild, or do they just work on the fringes and try to keep chugging along?

Tony Wolfe: For Chicago to ship Bryant out, they need to make it as easy as possible to convince their fans it was a good idea.

Tony Wolfe: Whereas Marlins fans were just like, “yeah, obviously they traded Realmuto.”

Craig Edwards: /checks standings/ They won 84 games. They can do almost nothing and contend next year. There’s no reason to do a rebuild.

5 Run Homer: Why are bullpen cams always so damn shaky?

Tony Wolfe: And had a better pythag than anyone in the division, if I’m not mistaken

Craig Edwards: bedrosian was inconsistent, but that’s not totally fair.

Tony Wolfe: wow

Nitro Nic: I’ll give him a break sense he got beaned in the head but awful strike calls

Dan Szymborski: LOST A TIME OUT

Dan Szymborski: Brewrs won’t be able to stop the clock now

El Mago’s World: Cubs could always spin it that they had to trade Bryant to keep Baez. Cub fans LURV Baez.

Stuafoo: Has a sunflower seed shell ever caused a bad bounce?

um…: Robot Umps, please!

Craig Edwards: So they are signing Baez to a big deal this offseason? I don’t see that coming with a Bryant trade.

Guest: Craig Counsell and Andy Reid have similar clock management styles it appears

Craig Edwards: Harsh

El Mago’s World: Don’t worry about seeing it Craig. El Mago will work his magic.

Guest: Lets not forget Grandal is an elite framer

Dan Szymborski:

Craig Edwards: That’s why you take the occasional passed ball.

Excited Baseball Fan: Counsell is pitching Suter. Great clock management!?!?!

Dan Szymborski: The Hurry Up Defense

Cheese Balls: Grandal should frame Contreras for something and become the new Cubs catcher, then

Dan Szymborski: Frame Contreras for STEALING THE STATUE OF LIBERTY, thus bringing the Carmen Sandiego jokes around full circle.

Craig Edwards: Is he in cahoots with Eric Thames?

Nitro Nic: Grandal framed Carmen San Diego

Craig Edwards: I think you are thinking of Roger Rabbit

Millville Meteor: Leaving suter

Craig Edwards: Sounds like an Oscar contender.

Chris: 6 outs from hader

Craig Edwards: More of a box office smash

stever20: The sooner robo umps get here the better….  What a mockery of the game.  Those were 2 of the worst strike calls i’ve seen in a while….

Guest: So this is what they were saving Strasburg for 7 years ago. It’s all coming together now!

Nitro Nic: I love Strasburg

Craig Edwards: He is good at pitching. Final game with Nationals?

Tony Wolfe: THAT bat was shattered

Nick: Speaking of catchers: what do the Dodgers do with Will Smith / Keibert Ruiz: is one of them trade bait?

Craig Edwards: Just play them both.

Excited Baseball Fan: Corbin pitch today?

Craig Edwards: I doubt it, though depends on what is going on when Strasburg’s spot in the order comes up.

Toby: Juan Soto throws like an OF from RBI Baseball on Nintendo

OBP: How many bunt singles would a pull-biased lefty have to execute before a defense abandoned the shift against him?

Guest: BAT IS SHATTERED DAN

Craig Edwards: 15?

MIL fan: Nothing calms the nerves like seeing Drew Pomeranz warm up in the pen o_O

Guest: If you were a perpetual 2 WAR player, what position would you want to play to maximize your career earnings and length?

Dan Szymborski: backup QB in the NFL

Tony Wolfe: Reliever, right?

Joe: Why would it be Strasburgs final game?

Dan Szymborski: He can opt out

asking for a friend: do you guys take bathroom breaks?

Dan Szymborski: yes

Dan Szymborski: basement bathroom is just round the corner from my office

Craig Edwards: every time you saw only one set of footprints in the sand, I was off going to the bathroom.

Dan Szymborski: For all you know, I’m doing this entire chat from the bathroom

Tony Wolfe: nope. first time chatting and I was too afraid to ask if I could have one

Dan Szymborski: I do have a dedicated laptop bathroom

twb: as a brewer fan I thought you were saying corbin burnes, and I hope not

Craig Edwards: I was saying Boo-urnes.

Dan Szymborski: YOu don’t have to actually be good at chatting, just better than me.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah guys, Rendon’s offered Scherzer’s contract. *From after the 2014 season*

Dan Szymborski: “They must really like Jeremy Hellickson, they offered him Pete Rose’s contract!”

Greg: If the Nats can’t sign Rendon, do we see a Soto or Robles extension this off-season?

Dan Szymborski: OK, not an actual quote

Craig Edwards: I don’t see that as mutually exclusive. They can easily do both/all three.

Dan Szymborski: He’s been solid at cleanup because of his batting average? cool story bro

Matt: Does Rendon sign Machado money??

Craig Edwards: I think 230-260

Crapshoot: Wouldn’t it be great if baseball had a “league” trophy for best regular-season record and a “tournament” trophy for the playoffs? Kind of like European football where teams can win a double or treble. It would be much more equitable.

Tony Wolfe: I’m not a fan of multiple trophies

Tony Wolfe: You get one BIG TROPHY

Dan Szymborski: I can’t see him getting near Machado money

Dan Szymborski: but more than 210

Craig Edwards: People are too conditioned for the postseason. Hockey has a trophy for it and nobody cares. Baseball is set up really well because only good teams make the playoffs (unlike NHL and NBA), for the most part, and it is still a grind to get through the playoffs (unlike NFL).

Guest: How’d the Brewers get Pomeranz to throw 3 MPH harder than his highest career mark?

Craig Edwards: He’s in the bullpen.

Craig Edwards: it happens

Guest: If Pomeranz dedicated himself to an 80-100 inning role, what would his future value and next contract conceivably look like?

Craig Edwards: 3/30?

Wire Fan: What can the Red Sox reasonably expect for 1 year of Betts at probably around 28-30M?

Craig Edwards: This is why he probably won’t be traded.

Craig Edwards: The Nationals chances of winning right now are roughly the same percentage as games the Astros lost when Verlander, Cole, or Greinke started.

Crapshoot: Yeah but the ratio of regular season games to playoffs is potentially 8x in MLB compared to less than 3x in NBA and NHL. MLB has more fluke champions than the other sports by far.

Barry G: Since someone mentioned how this game was moving quickly, you just know we are playing 16 innings now

Craig Edwards: What I’m saying is that it is not a fluke because the teams making the playoffs have earned it.

Ethan: Am I the only one who asks every year how Ernie Johnson keeps the postseason announcing gig for baseball? His voice does not encourage excitement, and he referred to Rendon watching strike 3 as getting “tied up”. I feel like there are so many deserving candidates to call postseason games

Dan Szymborski: You know, we can get Vin Scully to announce one last World Series if someone just has a giant net handy

Craig Edwards: If the Nationals only score one run, the Scherzer/Strasburg decision isn’t really going to matter.

Dan Szymborski: I really appreciate how Jeff Francoeur doesn’t let his sentences that go nowhere keep him from finishing his thought.

3cardmonty: Nats radio announcers on the other hand are excellent

Dan Szymborski: the average radio announcer > average TV

jkim: I love Ernie Johnson as the host of INside the NBA but not doing play by play for MLB

Yordan: Betts’ likely surplus value of 25MM or so in 2020 should, per Fangraphs’ prospect valuations, net a 50FV batter or pitcher; that would be someone like Alex Kirilloff or Nico Hoerner.  Would the Sox not do that?

Craig Edwards: No way

Strasburger: Red Sox let Mookie bowl one game, his score for that game is how many million he gets for the next say 7 years, who says no?

Craig Edwards: Only if the number of strikes in the final frame is the number of opt outs.

Tony Wolfe: a perfect bowling game still doesn’t reach what mookie deserves

Miss Chanandler Bong: Is there an active player who “deserves” to win the WS more than Kershaw? By that, I mean someone who people would root for after their favorite team.

Craig Edwards: I think I’ve done that article every year, but haven’t gotten around to it this season yet.

Craig Edwards: He has to be up there.

Big Klu: Trout

Lunar verLander: DICK
MOUNTAIN

Tony Wolfe: I think Mike Trout would get some significant love there

Byron Buxton : Felix Hernandez?

Dan Szymborski: WILLIANS

Tony Wolfe: *whispering gently*

Tony Wolfe: joey votto

Dan Szymborski: Amazing, a pitcher with sharper stuff in relief than starting

Ace: Freddie Freeman?

Guest: Which team is most likely to get Betts if he gets traded?

Dan Szymborski: Ernie Johnson just sounds kinda bored

twb: felix/trout/votto way over kershaw

Craig Edwards: they aren’t in the playoffs.

twb: felix/trout way over kershaw

Dan Szymborski: Poor Felix wouldn’t make the playoff roster 🙁

Tony Wolfe: “This crowd actually really likes watching this team. It’s a different team.”

Tony Wolfe: harsh sideye at bryce

Dan Szymborski: God help me, I’d take Buck/Reynolds over this group.

Craig Edwards: Hader is warming up.

Alex: Dan, the real question is would you take Smoltz over this group?

Dan Szymborski: hmm

Wire Fan: So what do the Nats do if both Rendon and Stras leave?  Spread some money around to get better depth or push a bunch of cash in Cole?

Dan Szymborski: Lose

Tony Wolfe: hope carter kieboom is jesus christ?

Dan Szymborski: Just make Petriello be color guy full time

Silver Skis: This has to be the first time a wild card team has attempted to end a game with L/L/L pitchers.

kevinthecomic: Just heard that the Brewers fired Craig Counsell and replaced him with Buck Showalter.  Hader sits back down.

Craig Edwards: So this game is working out pretty much as the Brewers hoped it would. Early lead with Woodruff to Suter to Pomeranz. Haven’t had to make too many adjustments to what I’m assuming the plan was. Now time for Hader, who’s made 13 appearances of exactly two innings with 11 scoreless frames, one outing where he gave up two runs and one of one run. 49 K, 3 BB in 26 IP.

Guest: Do you guys think Mike Trout will ever be part of a World Series winning team? 🙁

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be a FA someday!

Dan Szymborski: now, he’ll be like 37, but still

Mkg: Brewers showing why you play the game and not only assume the projections and narrative

Craig Edwards: Take note, Phillies.

Trent: So the Dodges have announced their game 4 starter, but not their game 1-3 starters.  Gamesmanship?  Does it depend on MIL or WAS winning?

Craig Edwards: maybe. or they might have bullpens coming up that will help show them something.

twb: not sure brooks backs up the “brewers got a lot of calls from mike everett” comment

Yo-Yo: Is Matt Carpenter a league-average (or worse) player now, or did he just play at the very bottom levels of his skills in 2019? Nothing stands out as worse, except he made a bit less contact.

Craig Edwards: He might have tried to do too much to combat the shift plus he’s been hurt and is a year older. Since he came back from the DL, he’s hitting a 115 wRC+ so it isn’t like he’s been bad of late.

Guest: Very much hindsight, but Strasburg should’ve started this game, right?

Tony Wolfe: Like Craig said, Washington’s only scored one run. I don’t think messing with the order of your pitchers matters all that much if that’s all your offense is getting.

Craig Edwards: He definitely pitched better than Scherzer, though we don’t know that Strasburg wouldn’t have done the same thing and we’d all be praising Scherzer’s bullpen performance. Also, the Nationals have to score more than one run for it to make a real difference.

Guest: Is Jose Ramirez 100% back to mid 2018 form?

Craig Edwards: He sure seemed to be.

Belli Flop: Scherzer starting was the right move at the time imho.

Craig Edwards: I agree.

Wire Fan: Who you guys got in tomorrow’s WC game?

Craig Edwards: Rays. You can see all of our predictions here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/heres-who-is-going-to-win-the-…

Craig Edwards: Tony was the only one of us three to pick the Brewers.

Tony Wolfe: The interesting thing about the Brewers, to me, is what they do on days when these four guys aren’t available. They’re reasonably deep, and Gio’s been excellent at times, but I don’t think there’s much doubt that these are their top four guys. If they can use three of these four again for Game 1, does Woodruff/Anderson/Guerra/Peralta get you through Game 2?

Dan Szymborski: When was Taylor the future plan?

Grand Admiral Braun: Are old live chats available still to read thru?

Dan Szymborski: The transcripts are usually uploaded

Guest: That Rendon yawn probably spawned thousands of other yawns

Belli Flop: All chats exist as transcripts yes

Craig Edwards: Only a few hundred were actually there to yawn, but all of them started a nap.

Dan Szymborski:

Brian CashGod: Dan why no emojis in this chat?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t set it up!

Spirit of the rule: HBP right call IMO

Tony Wolfe: IT’S A CATCH

Dan Szymborski: “Did his…skin move?”

Alex:

Alex: why is Hader’s fastball so hard to hit? He’s only in the 19th percentile in spin and it’s not like he throws 100

Lunar verLander: “Call Stands” is the right call IMO

Mkg: Thames HR was definitely a juiced ball HR, right?

kevinthecomic: I’m listening to the game on the radio and even I knew the pitch hit him

jkim: Never forget Thames appeared in the OG Masked Singer in Korea

Craig Edwards: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/josh-haders-fastball-is-hilarious/

Dan Szymborski: Bah, Craig found it before I could

5 Run Homer: Ryan Zimmerman moment forthcoming

Millville Meteor: Finally the fan with the ZIM sign has something to root for!

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I thought they were rooting for me 🙁

Craig Edwards: Turner’s two PA where he didn’t hit a homer have been the highest leverage index PAs of the night so far.

Dan Szymborski: Planner Fascyitis?

Jive Miguel: I thought so too Dan 😔

Byron Buxton : Dan how many scrabble points is your last name worth?

Dan Szymborski: none

Cale: Lineup construction is mostly a meh point but if you pinch hit for your #2 hitter you might have the wrong #2 hitter

Dan Szymborski: proper noun and too many letters

Craig Edwards: though lefty on lefty with Hader is a bit different.

Dan Szymborski: “I’m running it in myself since there’s no cutoff man.”

5 Run Homer: Was that bat shattered?

Adam: His bat was just old enough for that bloop

Tony Wolfe: Rendon has only faced Hader once? That seems odd

Wire Fan: Great baserunning?   Turner apparently with the daring “run since there are 2 outs” strategy?

Lunar verLander: suicide squeeze! it’s objectively dumb, and won’t help them overly much…so the Brewers won’t see it coming. IT’S THE PERFECT CRIME!

kevinthecomic: Rendon up with 2 on — best chance for Nats yet

5 Run Homer: Metal guitarist hair vs metal bassist goatee

Craig Edwards: HIghest LI of the night by far at over 3

Jerome Walton: Assuming the Brewers keep the lead, is there a max pitch count for Hader?

Craig Edwards: 48?

Wire Fan: Auto take on 3-0? Why?

Craig Edwards: Personal comfort?

Dan Szymborski: I kinda want to test that “something new this year, hitters hitting 3-0” but I’m also sleepy and want to watch the end

5 Run Homer: oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy it’s Juan Soto time

Craig Edwards: Leverage Index over 6!

Dan Szymborski: I remember that WrestleMania when Rendon took out Stanton AND Goldschmidt.

Dan Szymborski:

Brian CashGod: No, the leverage index is OVER 9000!!

Craig Edwards: for the season, sure.

kevinthecomic: organist: dun dun dun dun, dun dun dun dun

kevinthecomic: Lyles up in the pen

Morbo: Over 9000? THAT’S IMPOSSIBLE!

DJ Kitty Tears Down the Trop: Verdict: beisbol

Five Egg Omelet: All the things just happened

joseph: Intensity of the TOOTBLAN was over 9000

Dan Szymborski: IF the LI was over 9000, Grisham has the worst WPA in MLB history

5 Run Homer: Watching Soto celebrate while also just getting thrown out is fun

Dan Szymborski: It’d be awesome if he starts shooting off champagne and someone has to go back there to remind him it’s the 8th

twb: there was a tornado warning in SE Wisconsin, so I had to experience rendon/soto in the basement on the radio, heartbreaking…

Craig Edwards: He actually started celebrating before he even got out, which is awesome.

Guest: I’m listening to the radio call, how TOOTBLAN-y was the TOOTBLAN?

Craig Edwards: Sometimes, you just feel like running to third base when you take the lead.

Brian CashGod: No more Stras?

Joker: I wish Joaquin Phoenix was a shortstop.

Craig Edwards: Michael Taylor HBP

Brian CashGod: Gonna need a new term for thrown out celebrating on the basepaths – TOCOTB?

jkim: how much win% did Soto cost by getting thrown out there?

Craig Edwards: 2.2 percentage points.

Dan Szymborski: Premature culmination?

Brian CashGod: ^ winner

Craig Edwards: Not over yet.

Dan Szymborski: I missed the first pitch ceremony – did whoever threw it get clocked at 94?

Belli Flop: Aaron Barrett threw out first pitch

5 Run Homer: Ben Gamel in this situation is… not ideal

Dan Szymborski: Oh man, I’m bummed I missed that – ti must have been a great moment

Craig Edwards: I thought it was Hader for a second

Dan Szymborski: And here’s Benn

Tony Wolfe: Well that was fast

Belli Flop: Ballgame

Billy Beane: Poor Trent Grisham.

Craig Edwards: for sure

Tony Wolfe: Yeah. Hate that it was the 22-year-old

Brewers Fan: That was soul crushing

Dan Szymborski: I bet Raudy Read is thinking “And *I* helped!”

Byron Buxton : Wow nats won a postseason round

Hello: What’s the estimated ratio for comments you post versus ones you don’t in this chat?

Dan Szymborski: Playoff is very high velocity. We probably can only get to 10%.

Dan Szymborski: And with three chatterers, I can’t just selfishly steam through a billion of them at a breakneck pace like in normal chat!

LFC Mike: Skyline Chili for everyone !🤬

Dan Szymborski: NO

Dan Szymborski: BANNED

Craig Edwards: Wow.

Brian CashGod: NOT A SERIES

kevinthecomic: Thanks for chatting fellas!!

Brian CashGod: 3-1 memes are back, here we go

Dan Szymborski: What they never ask the players when they’ve dedicated a playoff run to an injured/departed teammate: what does it mean if you lose?

Millville Meteor: Baby shark contributed 0 LI 🙁

Jesse: Don’t care if it’s a series, Nationals have advanced in the playoffs

Craig Edwards: Not sure how much longer Dan and Tony are sticking around, but that’s going to do it for me. Have to finish up a piece before bed.

Dan Szymborski: No, Ernie, there was actually no meaning to Scherzer’s relief appearance against the Cubs not working out.

Dan Szymborski: Yup, time to wrap things up for the night.

Tony Wolfe: I will also be departing to finish up a story

Dan Szymborski: We’ll be back tomorrow!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for chatting with us everyone!

Joe: I’m gonna eat some 5 bean chili!

Dan Szymborski: no such thing