FanGraphs Power Rankings: 2025 Postseason Edition

After the last four playoff spots were decided during a wild final weekend of the regular season, the postseason is finally upon us. The 12-team field features a number of ballclubs that were playing their best baseball down the stretch in September, plus a few teams that backed into the playoffs in the midst of some worrying slumps. But the slate is wiped clean in October, and anything can happen in the postseason. Here’s a look at the 12 playoff teams and how they stack up against each other.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. Since we’ve reached the postseason, I’ve removed the playoff odds weighting to our raw Elo calculations and presented the teams in the tiers below based on our odds of them winning the World Series. If you’re curious about how your team finished in the standard regular season power rankings, the full table can be found at the bottom of this article.

The Mariners are in uncharted waters. They won the AL West for the first time since 2001 and head into the postseason as one of the favorites in the AL thanks to the strongest roster they’ve boasted since that historic season. A pair of superstars in Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez powers their offense, and the deadline acquisitions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez have really lengthened the lineup. The pitching staff is led by a group of young, talented starters who overcame a rough August to finish the season strong. One of the lingering questions is the availability of Bryan Woo. After exiting his start on September 19 with pectoral inflammation, there’s some optimism that he’ll be ready to go for the ALDS.

After two deep postseason runs in 2022 and ‘23, and an early exit in the Divisional round last year, the Phillies are looking to win their first World Series since 2008. They’ll face some hurdles to reach that goal, however, chief among them being the absence of Zack Wheeler, who was lost for the season after undergoing thoracic outlet decompression surgery. Cristopher Sánchez has stepped up to lead the rotation as the de facto ace, but without Wheeler, the Phillies will need to turn to one of Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, or Walker Buehler to start in a longer postseason series. On the plus side, Trea Turner was activated off the IL for the final game of the regular season after suffering a hamstring injury on September 8. The layoff before the NLDS should give him time to shake off any lingering rust. The Phillies’ biggest challenge might just come in their first playoff series; the way the playoff bracket is set up, they’re likely looking at a date with the Dodgers in the NLDS.

The Dodgers didn’t steamroll the entire league like everyone expected them to at the start of the year, instead turning in an up-and-down season. At a number of points during the summer, it seemed like the team might lose its grip on the NL West, but the pre-season favorites wound up winning another division title after all. Entering the playoffs, the starting rotation is the healthiest it’s been all season long. That’s good news, because Dodgers will likely need to lean on those starters, as the bullpen has been an absolute mess in September. Still, Roki Sasaki returned from his shoulder injury to make two very impressive appearances out of the ‘pen during the final week of the season, and there’s a possibility that Clayton Kershaw will be used in relief in later rounds. And while the offense struggled through some injury-issues in the middle of the season, Mookie Betts’s scorching second half (he’s sporting a 147 wRC+ since August 5) has solidified the top of the lineup. Then there are the unfathomable accomplishments of Shohei Ohtani: He blasted 55 home runs this year while working to reach a starter’s full workload on the mound. The Dodgers’ World Series odds are dinged a bit because they have to navigate the Wild Card round, though that should scare everyone else; their odds are still the second highest in the NL despite that handicap.

By virtue of winning the AL East on the final day of the regular season, the Blue Jays earned an all-important first-round bye. Not only will it give the team a chance to rest and recuperate, it allows them to bypass the horrors of the Wild Card round — they’ve lost six straight Wild Card games, suffering two-game sweeps in 2020, ‘22, and ‘23. Hopefully the break will allow Bo Bichette to return in some capacity during the ALDS; he’s been sidelined with a sprained knee. The Blue Jays offense has looked rather lackluster without Bichette, posting an 87 wRC+ since he was placed on the IL on September 7. The other big concern is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s late-season slump; he hasn’t collected an extra-base hit since Bichette hit the IL, posting a 45 wRC+ since then.

With plenty of late-season hot streaks shaking up the playoff picture in the AL, it was the Yankees who ended the season on an eight-game winning streak. It wasn’t enough to snatch the AL East crown away from Toronto, but New York is playing some of its best baseball of the season at the exact right time. Aaron Judge looks to be fully recovered from the minor elbow injury he suffered this summer; he posted a 241 wRC+ in September with 10 home runs. Max Fried, the Yankees’ Game 1 starter, has allowed just eight runs across his last seven starts. Remember, September performance doesn’t always carry over into October, but New York certainly looks like one of the most dangerous teams in the junior circuit. The Yanks will face the Red Sox in the Wild Card round, adding another chapter to those teams’ storied rivalry.

After a scorching hot July and August that included a dominant 14-game win streak, the Brewers cooled off considerably over the final month of the season. They still wound up with the best record in baseball, but they finished 2025 by going 19-21 after their winning streak ended on August 17. They’ll use their week-long break before the NLDS to get their pitching staff in order. While Brandon Woodruff’s lat injury is probably too serious for him to make it back for their first playoff series, the Brewers activated Trevor Megill off the IL on Sunday and are hoping to get Jose Quintana back in time for the Divisional round. The Brew Crew has opted to use Jacob Misiorowski out of the bullpen — at least for the NLDS — which gives them a multi-inning relief weapon to use as needed. The lineup lacks the star power of some of the other contenders in the NL, but Milwaukee’s offense this year was the best it’s been during this nearly decade-long window of contention. Christian Yelich looks no worse for wear after undergoing offseason back surgery, Jackson Chourio became the youngest player ever to reach the 20-20 threshold multiple times despite his up-and-down season, and Brice Turang’s breakout has been a huge boost.

The Padres were customarily aggressive at the trade deadline, bringing in Mason Miller to form a four-headed hydra in their bullpen. They also bolstered the lineup by adding Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Laureano (out for the Wild Card Series with a fractured finger), and Freddy Fermin, all fairly useful role players. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill give the offense plenty of star power, and the starting rotation’s lack of depth shouldn’t be that big of an issue in the postseason. The real difference maker is that bullpen, though; between Miller, Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada, the Padres can confidently shorten any start to just five innings and have their elite relievers cover the final four frames.

The Red Sox successfully navigated a pretty big organizational transition this season, trading away Rafael Devers in June and then graduating a bunch of their top prospects this summer. The problem is that two of those key youngsters will miss some or all of the playoffs; Marcelo Mayer is out until next year after undergoing wrist surgery in August and Roman Anthony will miss at least the Wild Card round as he continues to rehab from a strained oblique. Lucas Giolito will also miss the first round, as he’s dealing with an elbow issue. That means Boston will need to lean on another couple of youngsters in Connelly Early and Kyle Harrison to round out its starting rotation. Perhaps that relative inexperience will actually help them navigate the spotlight of their first-round matchup against the Sox’s arch-rival.

Even though they backed into the playoffs, fumbling a nearly assured division crown and first-round bye over the past two months, the Tigers have an opportunity to put that historic collapse behind them and exact some quick revenge against the Guardians, the team that toppled them in the AL Central. Detroit also has Tarik Skubal lined up to start Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, and no team has ever been eliminated after winning the first game of the three-game series. There’s no pitching chaos this year, either; after Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize give them two solid starters, though they’ll pitch in front of a bullpen that’s taken a pretty big step back this season. For the first half of the season, the Tigers looked like the class of the AL; they just need to prove they can play up to that level again when the stakes are the highest.

In theory, the Cubs have an extremely potent roster, built to win in October. They had the third-best offense in the NL during the regular season to go with a solid, if top-heavy, starting rotation and a much improved bullpen. The reality of their roster might look a little different that what’s on paper, however. Two of their superstars, Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong, have really struggled during the second half of the season; the former tried to play through a fractured finger and was only just activated off the IL following a September calf injury, while the latter has hit just .188/.237/.295 since August 1. And then there’s the broken rib Cade Horton suffered a week ago that will likely keep him sidelined for at least the Wild Card round. There’s still plenty of talent on the Cubs’ roster, but they’re facing a bunch of hurdles that could keep them from making a deep postseason run.

The Guardians are hoping to ride all that September momentum into a deep postseason run (though remember, September performance doesn’t always predict October success). They’re already playing with house money after their surprise division title, their second in a row and their third in the last four years. The first-round matchup also looks familiar; over the last two weeks of the season, Cleveland took five of six from Detroit, the coup de grâce in the battle for the AL Central. Since August 26, no team has allowed fewer runs than the Guardians’ 89 — in fact, no other team allowed fewer than 100 during that stretch. The pitching has been sterling, the defense fantastic. Now they just need to hope that José Ramírez can spur the offense to score enough runs to squeak by.

The beneficiaries of the Mets’ epic second-half collapse, the Reds find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since their surprise appearance during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Their prize for slipping into the postseason? A first-round date with the Dodgers. The odds are stacked against them, but Cincinnati was counted out for most of September and the team still managed to claim the final NL Wild Card berth. If the Reds are going to upset Los Angeles, it will probably require some fantastic pitching from Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott. Thankfully, Elly De La Cruz looks like he might have broken out of his injury-fueled second-half slump; he had three home runs and a 157 wRC+ over the final 10 games of the regular season. The Reds will need him at full strength if they want to get past the Wild Card round.

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