Here’s Who’s (Maybe) Going to Win the 2025 World Series
After a thrilling end to the regular season that saw the final NL Wild Card spot and both the AL East and Central division crowns come down to the last day, the postseason is here. The field features returning powerhouses, upstart challengers, and many of the game’s brightest stars. And while the bracket’s top seeds could be poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 25 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs did their best.
Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s full forecast (those tables are sortable). You can find our playoff odds here and the ZiPS postseason game-by-game odds here. Happy playoffs!
American League
Wild Card Series
Red Sox vs. Yankees Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 14 |
| Boston Red Sox | 11 |
Tigers vs. Guardians Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 13 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 12 |
Division Series
Red Sox/Yankees WC Winner vs. Blue Jays Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 11 |
| New York Yankees | 9 |
| Boston Red Sox | 5 |
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
Tigers/Guardians WC Winner vs. Mariners Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 23 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 |
League Championship Series
American League Championship Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners | 10 |
| New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners | 8 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians | 1 |
American League Championship Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 14 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 6 |
| New York Yankees | 4 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1 |
National League
Wild Card Series
Padres vs. Cubs Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 18 |
| Chicago Cubs | 7 |
Reds vs. Dodgers Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 23 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 2 |
Division Series
Padres/Cubs WC Winner vs. Brewers Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 12 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 11 |
| Chicago Cubs | 2 |
Reds/Dodgers WC Winner vs. Phillies Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 18 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 |
League Championship Series
National League Championship Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 10 |
| San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 6 |
| San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
National League Championship Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 15 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 |
| San Diego Padres | 4 |
World Series
World Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 11 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres | 3 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres | 1 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
World Series Champion
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 8 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 7 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3 |
| New York Yankees | 3 |
| San Diego Padres | 2 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1 |
Writer Predictions
American League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
| Writer | BOS/NYY WC | DET/CLE WC | BOS/NYY v. TOR DS | DET/CLE v. SEA DS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | NYY | CLE | NYY | CLE |
| Ariel Cohen | NYY | DET | TOR | SEA |
| Ben Clemens | BOS | CLE | BOS | SEA |
| Chad Young | BOS | CLE | BOS | SEA |
| Dan Szymborski | NYY | DET | TOR | SEA |
| David Laurila | BOS | DET | BOS | SEA |
| Davy Andrews | BOS | DET | TOR | SEA |
| Eric Longenhagen | BOS | DET | TOR | SEA |
| Esteban Rivera | NYY | CLE | NYY | SEA |
| Jake Mailhot | NYY | CLE | NYY | SEA |
| James Fegan | BOS | CLE | BOS | SEA |
| Jason Martinez | BOS | DET | TOR | SEA |
| Jay Jaffe | NYY | CLE | TOR | SEA |
| Jeff Zimmerman | NYY | CLE | NYY | SEA |
| Joe Orrico | BOS | DET | TOR | SEA |
| Jon Becker | BOS | DET | TOR | SEA |
| Keaton Arneson | NYY | DET | NYY | SEA |
| Kiri Oler | NYY | CLE | NYY | SEA |
| Matt Martell | NYY | CLE | NYY | SEA |
| Meg Rowley | NYY | DET | TOR | SEA |
| Michael Baumann | BOS | DET | TOR | SEA |
| Michael Rosen | NYY | CLE | NYY | SEA |
| Mike Podhorzer | NYY | DET | NYY | SEA |
| Niv Shah | NYY | CLE | TOR | CLE |
| Paul Sporer | BOS | DET | BOS | SEA |
National League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
| Writer | SDP/CHC WC | CIN/LAD WC | SDP/CHC v. MIL DS | CIN/LAD v. PHI DS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | SDP | LAD | SDP | LAD |
| Ariel Cohen | CHC | LAD | MIL | PHI |
| Ben Clemens | CHC | LAD | MIL | LAD |
| Chad Young | CHC | LAD | CHC | PHI |
| Dan Szymborski | SDP | LAD | MIL | PHI |
| David Laurila | CHC | CIN | CHC | PHI |
| Davy Andrews | SDP | LAD | MIL | PHI |
| Eric Longenhagen | SDP | LAD | SDP | PHI |
| Esteban Rivera | SDP | LAD | SDP | LAD |
| Jake Mailhot | SDP | LAD | SDP | LAD |
| James Fegan | SDP | LAD | SDP | PHI |
| Jason Martinez | SDP | LAD | SDP | PHI |
| Jay Jaffe | SDP | LAD | MIL | PHI |
| Jeff Zimmerman | CHC | LAD | MIL | PHI |
| Joe Orrico | CHC | LAD | MIL | PHI |
| Jon Becker | CHC | LAD | MIL | PHI |
| Keaton Arneson | SDP | CIN | MIL | PHI |
| Kiri Oler | SDP | LAD | SDP | PHI |
| Matt Martell | SDP | LAD | SDP | PHI |
| Meg Rowley | SDP | LAD | MIL | PHI |
| Michael Baumann | SDP | LAD | SDP | LAD |
| Michael Rosen | SDP | LAD | SDP | LAD |
| Mike Podhorzer | SDP | LAD | SD | LAD |
| Niv Shah | SDP | LAD | MIL | PHI |
| Paul Sporer | SDP | LAD | SDP | PHI |
League Championship Series and World Series
| Writer | ALCS | NLCS | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | CLE | LAD | CLE |
| Ariel Cohen | SEA | PHI | SEA |
| Ben Clemens | TOR | LAD | TOR |
| Chad Young | SEA | PHI | PHI |
| Dan Szymborski | SEA | PHI | PHI |
| David Laurila | SEA | PHI | PHI |
| Davy Andrews | TOR | PHI | TOR |
| Eric Longenhagen | TOR | SDP | SDP |
| Esteban Rivera | NYY | LAD | NYY |
| Jake Mailhot | SEA | LAD | SEA |
| James Fegan | SEA | PHI | SEA |
| Jason Martinez | TOR | SDP | SDP |
| Jay Jaffe | SEA | PHI | PHI |
| Jeff Zimmerman | SEA | PHI | PHI |
| Joe Orrico | SEA | PHI | SEA |
| Jon Becker | SEA | PHI | SEA |
| Keaton Arneson | NYY | PHI | NYY |
| Kiri Oler | SEA | PHI | SEA |
| Matt Martell | NYY | PHI | NYY |
| Meg Rowley | SEA | PHI | PHI |
| Michael Baumann | TOR | SDP | TOR |
| Michael Rosen | NYY | LAD | LAD |
| Mike Podhorzer | SEA | LAD | SEA |
| Niv Shah | TOR | PHI | PHI |
| Paul Sporer | SEA | SDP | SEA |
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
In the spirit of going against the grain I’ll go with the Padres to win it all.
I understand why the Mariners or Phillies are the popular picks. It’s kind of hard to pick someone other than Mariners or Phillies to win it all because they have the bye and the Dodgers and Yankees don’t, which means that there’s a decent chance one of them doesn’t get out of the first round. But if you forced me to go series by series just picking the best team I think I might wind up with one of those two. Those four teams all look pretty strong to me.
Which means I’m going with the Padres. Deep lineup with some underperforming stars, rotation isn’t super-elite but Nick Pivetta, Cease, and King are all playoff-worthy starter. And if they get a lead they can throw four elite relievers at you (Miller, Suarez, Morejon, Adam) plus Jeremiah Estrada. If they make it to a 7-game series they’re going to get so many breaks they can just keep throwing the same guys at you.
Slugging wins championships, and I just can’t see it with this Padres offense, especially with no Laureano. 28th in home runs and 25th in SLG is not gonna cut it.
It’s not great, but Tatis and Machado have a track record of hitting for more power than they did this year. Losing Laureano hurts a lot, he was hitting for a lot of power this year.
I’d say the bigger concern is just the offense in general. It’s not a bad offense like the Reds or Guardians, but it’s pretty average. That’s probably more damaging than how one gets there. If you asked me to pick either the Angels’ offense (226 HR, wRC+ 92) versus the Padres’ (152 HR, 102 wRC+) to go with in the playoffs I would pick the the Padres’ offense for certain.
I’m livid work prevented me from staking this flag before the game: THE ABSOLUTE DISRESPECT TO THE CUBS GOING ON IN THIS WHOLE ARTICLE IS RIDICULOUS!
Cubs probably have one of the worst rotations out of all the playoff teams. It’s not surprising that people don’t like them.
I believe the Cubs do 2 things well-1 better than anyone else.
1-I believe Counsell has learned through his stints in Milwaukee how to play leverage. You saw yesterday in moving Palencia into a spot with clear leverage. Schildt, to no real fault, wanted to imagine Pivetta getting through to Swanson-when you imagine success, you lose that edge.
2-The Cubs defend. They took at least 2 runs away from the Padres on defense alone. Due to an 8th inning Wild Pitch, the Cubs scored an insurance run that made the ninth a little more comfortable.
Does this take the Cubs to the World Series? Probably not, but I look at fan favorites like Seattle and Philly and wonder: when will their weaknesses show? The defense both of them exhibit are glaring-I suspect they will find their way to the sunlight sometime this autumn.
Mariners, Brewers, Padres – none have ever won a World Series, so it would be nice if one of those 3 finally did. Cleveland hasn’t won since, I think, 1948.
Jason Adam had surgery to repair a ruptured tendon in his knee and is out. But, yeah, that’s still one heck of a bullpen. Their backs are against the wall with today’s loss, though.
I don’t hate this prediction. They have wily veterans. A talented youngster or two. And pitching that just might be good enough for it all to click. It’s not hard to envision the Friars firing fiercely on all cylinders
The curse of feeling like I can’t pick the same one as everyone else means it already looks like it is wrong! I would have gone with Mariners over Dodgers in six but there were two writers with that exact matchup!
No one picked the team with the best record in baseball to even make the WS? Huh. 10 of you had MIL vs. PHI in the NLCS and all ten went with PHI, even though MIL won the season series?
If the Yanks get knocked out, I’m definitely going to be rooting hard for a SEA/MIL WS, which would guarantee a first time WS winner.
I’m pretty sure that would give Arizona vs Texas in 2023 a run for its money as one of the lowest viewed World Series ever, but I don’t care! That would be a fun series!
Neither have the Padres.
I would absolutely love to see one of those three teams win it.
(I would have picked the Phillies too)
SEA/MIL WS would certainly have a nice symmetry. You’ll recall that the Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee after the 1969 season and became the Brewers.
As a Mariner fan a SEA/MIL first-time-winner Series would suit me fine, all the more so as the Brewers began life as we all know as the ill-fated Seattle Pilots, fleeting rooting interest of my baseball youth, so even MIL winning would bring a smile to my face.
Fangraphs has doubted the Brewers the entire year. No reason to change now.
The Gorman Thomas Series!
A Brewer victory could be redemption for 1982 when they were the better team, and didn’t have Fingers in WS. Yount, Molitor, Uecker would be pleased.
I respect you, Alex Chamberlain. It is easy to be the voice of reason, but much more difficult to be the voice of chaos.
If anyone other than the Yankees, Mariners, Phillies, or Dodgers wins it all, color me surprised. The Brewers are the only other team that I think has a real fighter’s chance.
The Brewers have a team of destiny vibe, but those with the team-of-destiny vibe often see their luck run out in the playoffs. The Blue Jays are in a similar boat. Both of their playoff % are pretty good because of the bye, but if the Padres, Red Sox, Cubs, or Tigers make it out of round one I’d expect them to all get a pretty nice boost to their World Series %. The Dodgers and Yankees too, but they’re also just strong teams.
For the Brewers, if Woodruff and Megill are back to their normal selves by the time the NLDS starts up they’re a much stronger team than if they aren’t. For the Blue Jays that’s the case for Bichette and Bassitt. I would not be happy going into a 5- or 7-game series with Max Scherzer as my #3 starter, and Chad Patrick and Quinn Priester pitched great this year but both have a thin track record. I’d definitely prefer to get my starters back if I were one of those two teams.
I would assume the Jays run Yesavage out there as the #3 starter. I would not be shocked if Scherzer has already thrown his last pitch for them.
The Mariners have won 2 (wild card) playoff games since 2001.
The Mariners have played, what, 5 playoff games since 2001? It’s not like they’ve struggled in the playoffs: the M’s just love winning 88 or more games, and missing the playoffs by 1-2 games.
Whether the Mariners were 10-2 in the playoffs since 2001, or 2-10, or anywhere in between, I’m not sure how much success or failure the 2004 Mariners had (for instance) has any bearing whatsoever on this team over 20 years later. They don’t have any players or managers in common, the only commonality is the name on their jerseys.
Only one vote for the Dodgers to win it all, stark contrast to FG WS odds, but I guess the gut feeling of it being too hard to go back-to-back is hard to shake.
Yeah, of the two things that surprise me, that was one and the huge preference for PHI in general over MIL or LAD was the other. Am I the only one skeptical of PHI’s run prevention?
They’re a lot less scary without Wheeler leading the rotation, but they still have a pretty strong rotation and a couple of outstanding relievers.
If Wheeler was pitching I could absolutely understand the overwhelming Phillies love. I know playoffs are a crapshoot, etc, but if you’re asking me to pick who wins each round in a vacuum the Dodgers end up on top most of the time, which is what the odds are approximating as well.
I do like the Phillies rotation a lot and prefer it over MIL’s, but bullpen favors MIL and lineups may as well be a wash.
I’d be curious to hear the reasoning over such little LA representation in the WS, if it’s anything other than (understandably) unlikelihood to repeat and playoffs being random at times. Shaky bullpen?
It’s always risky to pick a wild card to go all the way because weird things happen in a short series. While the Dodgers are heavy favorites against the Reds, the Dodgers got swept by the Angels twice this year, so you can’t really rule it out.
But if I’m picking round-by-round who has the best team, I would probably go with the Dodgers or Yankees.
I think there’s a sense that the Dodgers are much more vulnerable than last year because a lot of the offensive contributors and bullpen are shakier this time around, but they also have a functional rotation this time. It’s weird because a lot of the names are the same but aside from Freeman, Ohtani, and Yamamoto there isn’t a lot of continuity in performance. I am not sure how much that matters—the projections still love them, and historically they have outperformed recent win-loss record.
Tbf Greene is very very good
I report from the future and can confirm that maybe a few people might want to rethink their picks, especially if Sasaki is real.
Mariners to win LDS:
Odds: 64.2%
Staff: 92%
Mariners to win LCS:
Odds: 35.5%
Staff: 56%
Mariners to win WC:
Odds: 19.5%
Staff: 32%
This makes sense, though, right? Because if they are favored by the projections each round, then staff are proportionally more likely to pick them to advance.
Would love to see a Cameron v Cistulli ALCS
Call me crazy (and unabashedly biased) but I like the Red Sox chances. Crochet is a world-class difference maker in a short series. Outside the Volpe dinger he dominated tonight against a tough opponent on the road, in the postseason. The moment was not too big for him.
If the Red Sox get something half as good from half their remaining pitchers, all they have to do is win half those games to go deep into October. I am half convinced that will happen. And the half glass full part of me says there is plenty reason to like this team 🙂
Go Sox kid
Dodgers seem like the best team but the bullpen is terrible. They need to figure out a way use the starters in relief. If they wanted to they could piggyback 3 games and use a bullpen game in Game 4 both times.
This is clearly the Brewers year!
Meg, marry me
Kudos to Ariel Cohen who, from what I can tell, is the only one to nail the Wild Card round.