FanGraphs Power Rankings – 5/30/11
The American flag still may not contain the word “Jordache,” but we are still proud of those who have served our country in the armed forces. Thank you to those who serve, who have served and especially to those who have died in service to our country.
Looking at this week’s rankings compared to our first edition on May 2nd, we see that 17 of the 30 teams are within one spot of where they started at, but we are seeing some teams move significantly in one direction or the other. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the team that has moved the needle the most is the resurgent and now first-place D-backs, who have jumped seven spots, from 25th to 18th. Four other teams have moved at least four spots in one direction or the other — the White Sox (+5), Blue Jays (+4), Padres (-5) and Twins (-5). Spots eight through 23 have been fluid each week, and this intuitively aligns with real life. On any day, or for any small stretch, most teams can play like champions, but you need an extended good run to get into the upper echelon permanently, and vice versa, and extended bad run to end up on the bottom for good.
1. Boston: Last week – 2, WAR% – .586 (5), FAN% – .605 (1), TOTAL% – .599
Matthew Carruth offers a perfectly logical and simple explanation for why Red Sox and Yankees games take forever. In what will come as little surprise to any keen Sawx fan, J.D. Drew is tops on this list among Red Sox.
2. New York Yankees: Last week – 1, WAR% – .629 (2), FAN% – .580 (2), TOTAL% – .596
It seems as though people rarely talk about CC Sabathia anymore, but he’s still just as good as ever. In fact, his FIP and FIP- marks, if they stayed constant throughout the season, would represent his best marks in a Yankee uniform.
3. Philadelphia: Last week – 3, WAR% – .588 (4), FAN% – .556 (3), TOTAL% – .566
Another pitcher in the midst of a hallmark campaign is Roy Halladay.
4. St. Louis: Last week – 4, WAR% – .658 (1), FAN% – .512 (12), TOTAL% – .561
The Cardinals’ outfield WAR total of 9.6 dwarfs every other outfield by at least three wins, and is a higher total than all position players for 22 of the other teams in baseball. Their wRC+ mark of 163 laps either field, just outfielders or all position players. And while Matt Holliday (177 wRC+), Colby Rasmus (140) and Lance Berkman (196) have been huge, the lesser-known Jon Jay (157) and Allen Craig (153) have been more than formidable.
5. Tampa Bay: Last week – 5, WAR% – .569 (7), FAN% – .537 (5), TOTAL% – .547
Evan Longoria was inserted as the Rays’ leadoff hitter for the first time in his career on Saturday and Sunday, and responded by reaching base in seven of his 10 plate appearances, including mashing one homer. Is there anything he can’t do?
6. Colorado: Last week – 6, WAR% – .526 (t-15), FAN% – .556 (3), TOTAL% – .546
The Rockies battered and bruised Jaime Garcia on Saturday, but were just 6-9 in their last 15 games at home. That spells trouble, and to make matters worse, they now embark on a big divisional road trip.
7. Milwaukee: Last week – 8, WAR% – .573 (6), FAN% – .519 (9), TOTAL% – .536
The BABIP’er of the Week Award goes to Ryan Braun, who clocked in at .643 for the week.
8. Florida: Last week – 7, WAR% – .560 (9), FAN% – .525 (7), TOTAL% – .536
Mike Stanton was supposed to provide lightpower, but after a two home run April, fantasy owners (including yours truly) were a touch concerned. A nine homer May has allayed those fears.
9. Texas: Last week – 12, WAR% – .548 (12), FAN% – .525 (7), TOTAL% – .532
Another player who might be ready to get hot is Ian Kinsler, who tied for eighth among position players this week with 0.6 WAR, has a six-game hitting streak and (arbitrary endpoints alert!) is hitting .299/.413/.448 since May 9.
10. Los Angeles of Anaheim: Last week – 11, WAR% – .593 (3), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .523
Vernon Wells was brought in to hit for power, wasn’t he?
11. San Francisco: Last week – 9, WAR% – .526 (t15), FAN% – .519 (9), TOTAL% – .521
Every once in a while, a player stepping in for an injured teammate will deliver an unexpected performance that lifts his team in the face of adversity (see Brady, Tom). After going 1-for-9 with a walk in his first three starts after Buster Posey’s unfortunate injury, Eli Whiteside may not be that guy.
12. Cincinnati: Last week – 10, WAR% – .564 (8), FAN% – .494 (17), TOTAL% – .517
Jay Bruce sees Mike Stanton’s May power surge and raises him, and provides a good example of the fallacy of early-season analysis to boot.
13. Atlanta: Last week – 13, WAR% – .530 (14), FAN% – .506 (14), TOTAL% – .514
Last week, Dave Cameron wrote about how alike the A’s and Mariners are. Two other teams closely resembling each other are the Braves and Phillies. Both have marvelous moundsmen, and below average offenses and defenses. Right now, they are the only two teams in the bottom 10 in UZR with above .500 records.
14. Toronto: Last week – 16, WAR% – .539 (13), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .504
Corey Patterson put together a .455 OBP last week, which may mark the first time that venn diagrams for “Corey Patterson” and “OBP greater than .400” intersected.
15. Detroit: Last week – 14, WAR% – .482 (18), FAN% – .512 (12), TOTAL% – .503
Don’t look now, but Jhonny Peralta is top three among qualified shortstops in wOBA, wRC+ and WAR.
16. Chicago Cubs: Last week – 15, WAR% – .480 (19), FAN% – .506 (14), TOTAL% – .498
After hitting .326 in April, Darwin Barney did manage to hit .303 in May, but his wOBA dropped from .348 to .290, and the bloom may be off his rose soon.
17. New York Mets: Last week – 19, WAR% – .445 (25), FAN% – .519 (9), TOTAL% – .495
Never one to strike out in bunches, Jose Reyes is striking out at a career-low rate this season. He hasn’t struck out in a game since May 16.
18. Arizona: Last week – 20, WAR% – .558 (11), FAN% – .463 (25), TOTAL% – .494
Zach Duke had a great 2011 debut for the red-hot D-backs, pitching seven innings of shutout ball. Granted, it was against Houston, but he was efficient, throwing more than 70 percent of his pitches for strikes.
19. Chicago White Sox: Last week – 17, WAR% – .504 (17), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .493
This past week, Mitchel Lichtman introduced the stat Ultimate Base Running, and you can now find it on player pages and leaderboards under “Bsr.” This past week, six players compiled 0.4 Bsr, and two of them — Alex Rios and Alexei Ramirez — were White Sox.
20. Cleveland: Last week – 18, WAR% – .560 (10), FAN% – .451 (27), TOTAL% – .484
Cleveland fell back to the pack in WAR% in a big way this week, dropping out of the top five for the first time back to tenth. That will happen when you play the Red Sox and the Rays, who outscored the Tribe 35-14 in six games this week.
21. Minnesota: Last week – 21, WAR% – .364 (30), FAN% – .537 (5), TOTAL% – .483
At eighth overall in positional player WAR for the season at 2.6, Denard Span is quietly having an outstanding season.
22. Oakland: Last week – 23, WAR% – .475 (20), FAN% – .481 (23), TOTAL% – .479
With an ERA of 2.84 and an FIP of 3.30, the Oakland pitching staff has the second-lowest E-F score at -0.46, a potentially troubling sign for a team that is being carried by its pitching. Silver lining: Texas’ -0.81 mark is the one that’s worse.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Last week – 24, WAR% – .460 (22), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .4784
Casey Blake came off the disabled list this week, and was immediately slotted back in as the two-hole hitter in hopes that he can help revive a struggling Dodgers offense. Only the Twins, Giants and Padres have scored fewer runs per game than the Dodgers.
24. San Diego: Last week – 21, WAR% – .444 (26), FAN% – .494 (17), TOTAL% – .4776
There are still some mixed signals in Mat Latos’ 2011 performance record, but aside from a constant xFIP, Latos had a much better May than April.
25. Baltimore: Last week – 25, WAR% – .409 (28), FAN% – .500 (16), TOTAL% – .471
So…is it okay to label Mark Reynolds’ 2009 season a fluke yet?
26. Seattle: Last week – 26, WAR% – .447 (24), FAN% – .469 (24), TOTAL% – .462
Justin Smoak has cooled off considerably since I took a look at him in early May, but he is still leading the Mariners offense in just about every relevant category.
27. Washington: Last week – 27, WAR% – .440 (27), FAN% – .457 (26), TOTAL% – .451
Danny Espinosa has been contributing across the board, as he has positive fielding and base running marks, and has a wRC+ that is just about league average (98). In another season that might not be that spectacular, but so far it’s been a down season for rookie position players, and Espinoza’s 1.4 WAR leads the group.
28. Pittsburgh: Last week – 28, WAR% – .453 (23), FAN% – .438 (28), TOTAL% – .443
As a steals guy (tied for eighth) who scores runs (top 60) and gets on base at a decent clip (.358 OBP, .334 wOBA), Jose Tabata has become both a pretty decent real and fantasy player in his first full Major League season.
29. Kansas City: Last week – 29, WAR% – .472 (21), FAN% – .420 (29), TOTAL% – .437
Thanks to a devastating slider, Aaron Crow has been one of the season’s most pleasant surprises.
30. Houston: Last week – 30, WAR% – .382 (29), FAN% – .370 (30), TOTAL% – .374
The Astros got some good ink on FG this week, with Eric Seidman laying down a convincing case for why the Astros should not pursue a long-term extension with Michael Bourn, and Marc Hulet highlighting some good ‘Stros farmhands.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Yep, I feel like the Twins and Indian are comparable at this point both so far and going forward…makes total sense.
Uh, yeah. Projections be damned, having the winningest and losingest teams in the AL in adjacent places on the list makes no sense whatsoever.
It’s almost as if the system was designed to produce head-scratching.
“Two other teams closely resembling each other are the Braves and Phillies.” Philly is 3rd, Atlanta is 13th. Lol.
Well, that’s because those two resemble each other like a gorilla resembles an orangutang. While there may be significant similarities, I think we all know which one would win an arm wrestling contest… You can make up your mind which one is the 800 pound gorilla.
It may also be the result of the inexplicable statement that the Phillies have a below average offense. (Did I miss something? Since when did Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Polanco, and Ruiz all die? Because last I checked, they were all plus offense for their positions… Clearly, I missed a memo somewhere)
“Every once in a while, a player stepping in for an injured teammate will deliver an unexpected performance that lifts his team in the face of adversity (see Brady, Tom). After going 1-for-9 with a walk in his first three starts after Buster Posey’s unfortunate injury, Eli Whiteside may not be that guy.”
Made my day.
I just took a glance at Ryan Brauns player page and noticed he has made a career out of posting Ichiro-esque BABIPS. Not what I was expecting from a player with his skillset
That’s what happens when you hit the ball hard. Matt Holliday is another one similar to Braun in that regard.
He is way faster than he is given credit for. Until Roenicke came in he wasn’t allowed to run, this year we are seeing it.
I also agree with Samuel that he does hit the ball hard and that helps.
This might sound stupid but I think the Jays are a top ten team. There record might not be as strong as other teams, but if you are over .500 in a division with 3 top 5 teams, you should be in the top 10.
Very flawed logic here. But I’m guessing you are a Jays fan, and thus likely a major homer, so whatever.
I don’t know, I suppose it depends how one defines power. If “power” represents playing ability and raw talent, I could entirely imagine the Jays in the top 10. If “power” represents the power to get into the postseason, the Jays are definitely in the bottom 10. Maybe even the bottom 5. Tough breaks for the Jays and the O’s, all told…
hey, lay off Whiteside…he punk’d that fat boy Fielder and spiked the ball in his face…well, sort of, anyway…
Since the super-crazy-biased-against-Cleveland power rankings debuted here on the site on May 2nd, where they ranked the Indians 20th despite their 19-8 record at the time, the Indians have gone 12-11 and have been outscored by their opponents. Their pythag record over that time is 18th best in baseball.
I’m just saying.
LMAO at the list, and now your justification for listing Cleveland as the 10th worst team. I’m not even a Cle fan, but 10th worst is preposterous.
So they will just keep winning with no pitching and a weak lineup?
OK.
1) Who knows
2) This list’s 2nd best team also has no pitching, or at least pitching that should be projected as very bad.
3) Dave uses the fact that Cle is 12-11 since their 19-8 start. I’m not inclined to look it up, but I assure you that 20 other teams do not have a better record in that timespan.
4) If FIP is supposed to be predictive (not saying it is, just play along), than 3.28, 3.68, 4.21 and 4.42 ain’t bad at all. For comparison sake, this list’s best team’s starters FIP is 2.84, 4.20, 4.74, 4.58 and 4.63
5) Even with 2B Cabrera having damn-near his worst season ever, Cle, “up the middle”, is as good as any in baseball.
It’s not a bad team. I’m sure their depth sucks, and I’d also agree that their payroll will not in the foreseeable future be conducive to consistent winning, but their starting 9 and pitching + record do not in any way suggest they’re the 10th worst team in baseball.
Ok…so they are winning at a .520 rate from May 2nd on = 84 win team.
The Twins, one spot below them are 8-17 in that same period of time. That’s a .320 rate or a 52 win team.
Fine if the Indians aren’t in the top 5, but they are the 10th best WAR team and are ranked next to the 30th best war team.
So the problem isn’t the Indians’ ranking, probably, but the Twins. The Indians are probably ranked correctly, and the Twins probably ranked incorrectly.
“the Twins probably ranked incorrectly.”
This. Without Liriano, Mauer and Nathan, the Twins are missing three of their front teeth in the 2011 AL Central brawl already. Of those 3, only Mauer can be reliably expected to return to form this season.
I like the Twins, and their division is still a free for all, but unless at least two out of that bunch return to form, they’re going to be hamstrung. And unless all of them return, they’re almost a lock to be bounced in the first round of playoffs if they get there.
I’m think they are equally off because of a broken system.
Couldn’t the same be said about Philly and ATL?
Against a tougher than average schedule. 17 of their last 25 games came against teams in the upper half of your rankings. 12 against the top 10. So the Indians, despite having some injury issues, have managed to keep their head above water against a pretty tough stretch. Sounds like what any 20th best team in the league would do.
Sorry for the long post but I have one suggestion that I think would improve the rankings and eliminate many complaints:
Give WAR% a weight of: (% of season played)*2 instead of
(% of season played)*1 (giving WAR% double the weight it has now)
This is very similar to how Football Outsider’s phase out the preseason projections for their DVOA rankings. This method completely eliminates the projections by the halfway point of the season. This makes more sense to me because the projections don’t reflect injuries (Mauer/Twins), and teams are often very different than their projection by this point. FO and FG are both great, but I think FO’s method makes more sense.
Giving WAR% more weight would move the Indians up and the Twins down, but not too far. I agree that it doesn’t make much sense to have them at 20 and 21, even if it’s only May 31st. Using WAR % *2 would hopefully put the Indians in the 10-15 range, and the Twins in the 25-30 range.
I would love to see the results with this tweak, and I think a lot of FG readers would agree that this method makes more sense. I think it would make the rankings more credible and the best out there much like FO’s DVOA rankings. Anyone else agree? Thanks
I don’t like throwing out projections at the halfway point, but more weight should probably be put on this year’s results. I would use a system where you cut the rest-of-season weight in half, then weigh the rest with WAR%. For example, at the halfway point, it would be 75% results, 25% projections. It would result in similar rankings, but probably less volatile.
Not only do I think the use of weekly WAR is ridiculous, I also think it’s damn near sacrilegious too. The following is the digression of the usage of WAR:
1. Of no use in small samples
2. Not much use with less than 600 opportunities
3. Let’s judge players yearly with WAR, of which defense is a component of.
4. Let’s create FG “Power Rankings” which rank teams weekly on their defense, and other stats.
4. No, let’s make WAR real-time instead, so last nights single game defensive performances can assist in properly valuating players.
in·con·sis·tent (nkn-sstnt)
adj.
1. Displaying or marked by a lack of consistency, especially:
a. Not regular or predictable; erratic: inconsistent behavior.
b. Lacking in correct logical relation; contradictory: inconsistent statements.
c. Not in agreement or harmony; incompatible: an intersection inconsistent with the road map.
“Usage of UZR”. not WAR. ouch
That makes a lot more sense. From the get go I thought the pre-season rankings were too heavily rated as well.
Also, I would have to imagine that for the most part sample size related abnormalities will have corrected themselves by the halfway point (defensive stats aside).
I like your idea too LeeTro. I think we almost all agree that more weight should be given to WAR%, whether it’s 2X more or 1.5X more.
Yes there will be small sample issues by eliminating the projections halfway, but I think it is still a better method than giving 50% weight to preseason projections halfway through the season.
The Indians are 10th in on-field play (WAR%), and the Twins are 30th. Yet they are 20 and 21 two months into the season because we thought the Indians would be bad, and we thought the Twins would be good. I think most readers would agree preseason rankings shouldn’t count that much.
You can always look at the WAR% rank in parentheses to see the on-field portion of the ranking, but I think many readers would like the overall rankings tweaked to make them more interesting and credible.
That’s an interesting thing, but I’m not sure if it makes a lot of sense. Most of the things that are projected don’t change all that much during the season. Just because a pitcher has a bad first half doesn’t mean we should then assume his second half will follow that exactly, for example- a lot of the projections are still valid for your second half stats.
I do definitely think there should be some adjustment for injuries though. I mean, let’s say Wainwright made it to the season start, then blew out his arm. Shouldn’t we then immediately scrap all his WAR for the season? Otherwise, the Cardinals ranked as if they’ll have Wainwright for the rest of the season forever. It just doesn’t make much sense. Likewise, I think trades have to be taken into account somehow.
As it stands, even if the Yankees were all killed in a terrible bathhouse accident and their team was replaced with AAA players, they’d still hold a top 4 ranking probably. On the other hand, if Houston was sold to a billionaire who was able to trade/buy every Boras client, they’d still be ranked poorly.
I find it weird that we can’t do simple updates based upon known transactions. It’s not like there are so many transactions that this would be impossible to pull off.
Cubs better than indians? C’mon
It’s a amazing how many people look at these rankings and have absolutely no idea how they were created.
The Twins are “eighth overall in positional player WAR for the season”. Considering that their starting lineup has a lower ERA than in 2010, I’d take this as a criticism of position player WAR.
That comma after the “2.6” means that you need to continue reading to comprehend the author’s complete thought.
With the methodology and performance (if it stays the same), Cleveland will have to wait until late August or early September to be top 15?
Due to their FAN projections they can never be “top 10” (with the 10th best WAR).
I don’t have any real issues with them not being a top 5-8 team. But they should be 10-12 at least.
It’s not unlike NCAAF rankings where a surprise team in a weak conference has to wait until late in the season to get a decent ranking.
I do think. At this point, 2 parts performance, 1 part projections would produce a “more accurate” ranking.
The issue simply is the result of the weighting (50/50?). I think by end of May, we should be around 65/35 (WAR/FAN) and each passing month (or so) adds 5 points to performance, 70/30, 75/25, 80/20, etc.
Go back and read the methodology. That’s exactly what we’re doing.
Never any love for Reynolds. Don’t think he gets does 40/20 again but 33/15 seems doable. By this point it should be understood he’s not a great 3B, but can be an adequate 1B. Dude is still just 28.
When I typed the comment about weighting methods, I knew that it gradually shifts the emphasis toward performance.
I was typing from my phone, so looking up the exact weighting at that time wasn’t easy.
But looking at CLE’s rankings of 10 and 27 resulting in an overall of 20, we’re still at the point where projections are counting for more than half, and the point I wanted to make is that by June I would prefer to be at the point of 70/30 or 75/25 in favor of WAR … Putting CLE’s overall somewhere around 15. 20 is still bottom third of the league.
The methodology will eventually get there. My comments were whether the weighting was aggressive enough. Accurate ratings in September seems sort of “too late to the party”.
I totally agree CircleChange. I know FG doesn’t want to put too much stock into small sample sizes, which is probably why this 50 50 weight at the halfway point was chosen. But I think the fact that the 10th best team in on-field play (Indians) and the 30th team (Twins) are 20 and 21 after 2 months is all the evidence you need to prove WAR% should be given more weight. This is mainly because the projections don’t factor in injuries and breakout players.
I agree it just doesn’t seem right for the Indians to have to have to wait until August to even get into the top 15.
But here’s the fatal flaw in your reasoning: you’re assuming that Cleveland IS a top 15 team, and so will eventually (positively) regress to that level. When recent evidence suggests that they are not remotely close to that level, and in fact have been accurately ranked all along.