FanGraphs Power Rankings: April 7–24

We’re a little over two weeks into the 2022 season, which means it’s time to start assessing the teams that have gotten off to a hot start and those that have struggled. It’s way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions yet, but there are some teams who have shown real improvements so far, and others that have fallen flat despite lofty expectations.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated. First, we take three most important components of a team — offense (wRC+) and starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by innings) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking which is then presented in tiers below.

No one can really compete with the Dodgers. They possess the best record and the best run differential in baseball, and their Pythagorean win percentage says they “should have” won an extra game too. Their offense has gotten off to a bit of a slow start with Mookie Betts and Justin Turner both mired in early slumps. Luckily, Cody Bellinger’s bat is finally showing signs of life after taking the last two seasons off; he blasted two home runs on Sunday afternoon in a 10–2 drubbing of the Padres. Los Angeles’ pitching staff, meanwhile, has allowed the fewest runs in baseball thus far, with a revitalized Clayton Kershaw leading the way.

There were plenty of reasons for concern for the Mets heading into the season, the biggest of which was Jacob deGrom’s shoulder. Luckily, the rest of the rotation has picked up the slack and more. Max Scherzer shrugged off a minor spring injury and has shown exactly why New York spent oodles of money on him this offseason. Not to be outdone, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, and Tylor Megill have all been phenomenal to start this season as well, giving the Mets the best starting rotation in baseball by a wide margin. Oh, and Francisco Lindor looks like the superstar that Mets fans hoped he could be when they traded for him last year; he’s slashing .313/.408/.563 (186 wRC+) to start the season.

The Giants are well on their way to proving that last year’s 107 wins weren’t a fluke. They lost three of four to the Mets in New York earlier last week but came back and swept the Nationals over the weekend, outscoring them 24–6. Their pitching has been stellar and they’re getting just enough contributions from their ultra-flexible lineup. And they’re finding all this early success despite facing a huge number of injuries already. Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani have both been sidelined with minor injuries, and Mike Yastrzemski and Steven Duggar both hit the IL last week.

Speaking of teams proving their success in 2021 wasn’t a fluke, the Mariners ended this first stretch of play tied for the best record and the best run (and fun) differential in the American League. They lead baseball with a 129 wRC+, including the best walk rate and fifth-best strikeout rate in the league, and have won seven of nine during their first homestand of the year, including a series win against Houston in which they outscored the Astros 18–7. What’s even more scary is they’re getting almost nothing on offense from their two outfield phenoms, Julio Rodríguez (61 wRC+) and Jarred Kelenic (67 wRC+), though they’re not at fault for at least some of their struggles. Instead, it’s been the infield trio of Ty France, J.P. Crawford, and Eugenio Suárez carrying the load to start the season.

The Blue Jays were an extra-innings, walk-off loss away from sweeping the Astros over the weekend. Despite that setback, they won both of their road series in Boston and Houston last week and are tied for the best record in the American League. Next up after that early gauntlet: a long homestand against the Red Sox, Astros, and Yankees before traveling to Cleveland, New York, and Tampa Bay, and then returning home to face the Mariners; 22 games against the best of the AL within 23 days. If Toronto is within shouting distance of the AL East lead in mid-May, it will have weathered one of the most grueling stretches on the schedule.

The Angels managed to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Orioles on Sunday, winning a close game after scoring six runs in the first inning. Their bullpen allowed nine runs to score during that three-game series against Baltimore, blowing the game on Saturday, too. But beyond their relief woes, the Angels are playing good baseball. Their offense has been fantastic, and the starting pitching has been much better than expected. Shohei Ohtani has been dominant, Noah Syndergaard has shown few ill effects from his Tommy John surgery, Patrick Sandoval is healthy and dealing, and Michael Lorenzen has been a great addition.

A 21–0 demolition of the Pirates on Saturday certainly skews the Cubs’ early numbers and run differential. That they lost the other three games against Pittsburgh over the weekend dampens some of their good vibes. Still, Seiya Suzuki has made the transition to MLB look easy while being wonderfully entertaining on and off the field. Chicago shouldn’t be confused for a true contender just yet, but Suzuki’s quick acclimation definitely accelerates the timeline for establishing a new talent core.

Surprisingly, the Rockies have yet to lose a series this year; they’ve already racked up wins against the Dodgers, Rangers, Phillies, and Tigers, though their run differential (+1) paints a somewhat different picture. While Kris Bryant has taken a while to acclimatize to his new environs (a 84 wRC+ so far), C.J. Cron and Connor Joe have been carrying the offense instead. Colorado also just signed homegrown favorite Kyle Freeland to a long-term extension. For now, it’s not such a bad time to be a fan of the Rockies.

All six of the teams in this tier entered the season with an eye toward contending, and each of them have gotten off to slow starts.

The Astros’ walk-off win in extra innings on Sunday broke a four-game losing streak, though they still haven’t won a series since taking three of four against the Angels to open the season. The player who blasted the two-run homer to win yesterday? Jeremy Peña, who’s been one of the few bright spots for Houston thus far, with a 159 wRC+ and fantastic defense at shortstop. Justin Verlander has also looked like his old self after missing nearly all of the last two seasons.

Byron Buxton returned from an early injury scare to pick up right where he left off. He crushed a home run against the White Sox on Saturday as part of a four-hit day, then blasted two more dingers on Sunday, including a mammoth, walk-off three-run bomb. That puts him atop the AL home run leaderboard despite missing five games last week. What’s even more important were the three wins against Chicago over the weekend, putting the Twins on top of the AL Central standings.

The Red Sox had the ignominious feat of getting no-hit over nine innings by a cavalcade of Rays relievers, then scored two runs in the top of the 10th to take the lead … only to wind up losing anyway on a walk-off home run in the bottom half of the inning. Their pitching staff has been stretched thin, and they’re traveling to Toronto to start this week, meaning a number of their players will be placed on the restricted list because of their unvaccinated status. It hasn’t been a great start to the season in Boston, and it doesn’t seem like it’s getting any easier soon.

After their walk-off loss on Sunday afternoon, the White Sox have now lost seven in a row. They started off the season well enough, with a 6–3 record through their first three series, but back-to-back sweeps by division rivals have left them below .500. To make matters worse, Eloy Jiménez suffered a torn hamstring on Saturday and will be sidelined for at least a couple of months. At least Lucas Giolito came back from the IL on Sunday. But Chicago’s injuries issues aren’t the worst of it; it’s the defense. The White Sox have gone eight straight games with an error, including four in one game earlier this week in Cleveland. That poor play in the field has already cost them an astounding 10 runs, per OAA, and that’s a big reason why they’re struggling so badly right now.

While the Orioles don’t have the wins to show for it, they’ve enjoyed a relatively good start to the season. Surprisingly, it’s their pitching staff that’s leading the way; they’ve allowed the third fewest runs in the AL, with their bullpen looking particularly good. Jorge López looks like a new pitcher as the closer, and Bruce Zimmermann has taken a major step forward in the rotation. Their lack of offense hasn’t done them any favors, though. Baltimore scored just 3.4 runs in its six-game homestand and hit just three home runs during that stretch, all out to center or right field. Six games a trend does not make, but after the offseason changes to Camden Yards’ left field wall, it’s bound to receive outsized attention all season long.

The Reds finally won their third game of the season after suffering through an ugly 11-game losing streak. The tone-deaf comments from Reds president Phil Castellini, son of Reds owner Bob Castellini, have loomed large. It’s too bad, because the debuts of top pitching prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo should be cause for celebration and looking toward the future. Instead, fans in Cincinnati are forced to reckon with an ownership group that takes them for granted at best and actively antagonizes them at worst.

…