FanGraphs Power Rankings: July 14–23

The first FanGraphs Power Rankings of the second half of the season are here, and there are some significant movers in the rankings. As we hurtle toward the trade deadline, teams on the bubble have rapidly closing windows to get into the playoff picture or be left behind.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Braves haven’t exactly had the smoothest start to the second half, losing consecutive series to the White Sox and Diamondbacks before taking two of three from the Brewers over the weekend, but they’re still miles ahead of any other team in the National League. As long as Ronald Acuña Jr. continues playing like the MVP favorite and Spencer Strider continues pitching like the Cy Young favorite, they’ll have an easy time walking into the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year.

The Rangers raced out with six straight wins after the All-Star break, including a sweep of the Rays earlier this week. The good times came to a halt over the weekend, as they were outscored 31–16 by the Dodgers. To make matters worse, Corey Seager exited Friday’s game with a sprained thumb, putting him on the IL for the second time this season. His timeline to return is still unclear, but Texas was able to weather his absence back in April.

The Rays limped into the All-Star break, and things haven’t gotten better since. They won their first series against the Royals but were swept by the Rangers and then lost a huge four-game series against the Orioles over the weekend, dropping them into second place in the AL East for the first time this season. The biggest problem has been an offense that’s suddenly a little inconsistent; they’ve scored just 4.1 runs per game over their last 20 contests and have scored more than five runs just once over their last 10.

The Orioles have continued to exceed all expectations and now lead the hyper-competitive AL East. They recalled Grayson Rodriguez to give their rotation a shot in the arm and have a few more top prospects ready to make the leap to the majors should the need arise. It would be a little surprising to see them mortgage some of that future to bolster their roster this year since it’s already so deep with young talent. They did get some shopping done early, adding Shintaro Fujinami to help out a bullpen that’s been leaned on hard this season.

The Blue Jays aren’t the only team dealing with a rough start to the second half, but they don’t have much wiggle room to survive their inconsistencies in the crowded AL playoff picture. Their biggest issue is a stable of offensive stars who aren’t contributing up to their usual standards. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the Home Run Derby and has hit four dingers since the beginning of the second half, but his overall line still stands at just a 123 wRC+. George Springer, Daulton Varsho, and Alejandro Kirk are all struggling at the plate relative to their career norms, too. Their pitching staff is about to get a boost in the form of a healthy Hyun Jin Ryu, and they just added Génesis Cabrera to their bullpen. Toronto has a tough schedule heading into the trade deadline: three each against the Dodgers and Angels, and then a big four-game series against the Orioles next week.

Both the Diamondbacks and Giants find themselves looking up at the Dodgers in the NL West after Los Angeles’ surge up the standings after the All-Star break. Arizona has lost four straight and seven of nine in the second half; San Francisco has lost five straight after winning its first five games out of the gate. The D-Backs’ success has been fun to watch, but it feels like their roster is a little too flawed to keep up with the rest of the field. Between these two teams, the Giants’ excellent bullpen seems like the biggest differentiator.

And then there are the Padres, six games behind the Giants and Diamondbacks and ten games behind the Dodgers. They’re too talented to give up on this season yet, but their window to make a move up the standings is becoming smaller and smaller. They did manage to win both of their series last week and have a big four-game series against the Dodgers looming in two weeks, just after the trade deadline. It’s possible they hit the soft reset button and move a rejuvenated Blake Snell if they don’t make any headway in the standings before then.

All eyes will be on the Angels over the next two weeks. The Shohei Ohtani question looms over everything they do, and it won’t go away until they trade him or the deadline passes with him still in Anaheim. They managed to climb back into the fringe of the AL playoff picture with a sweep of the Yankees and a series win over the Pirates last week. Mickey Moniak is trying to do his best Mike Trout impression while the latter is sidelined with a hand injury, but that might not be enough to get them over the hump.

The Reds and Brewers played six straight games against each other with the All-Star break sandwiched in the middle; Milwaukee walked away with five victories and reclaimed the lead in the NL Central. Cincinnati responded by winning five of its last seven against direct competitors in the NL Wild Card race. The Reds have got three more games in Milwaukee on tap this week followed by a three-game set in Los Angeles against the red-hot Dodgers.

The Guardians ended the first half of the season a half-game ahead of the Twins in the AL Central. That lead has been quickly erased, with Minnesota winning eight of its ten games after the midseason break as Cleveland has gone 4–5. An ugly sweep by the Rangers two weekends ago was the low point, but the Guardians have won back-to-back series and haven’t fallen out of the running in the division yet. Unfortunately, Shane Bieber hit the IL with an elbow injury, joining Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill on the shelf. Their stable of young rookie starters will have to lead the way now.

Like the Padres, the Mets are quickly running out of time to get back into the playoff picture. They’re not even on the fringe right now like San Diego is, and they don’t have the solid underlying production to give them hope for a turnaround. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer aren’t carrying the load for the rotation, and it’s clear that Edwin Díaz’s absence has hurt the bullpen more than expected. There aren’t that many pieces they can sell off at this point, and too many of their aging stars are locked into huge long-term contracts. Of all the teams in this tier, they’re the one that’s truly stuck in no man’s land.

After getting swept by the Twins over the weekend, whatever slim hopes the White Sox had in climbing back into the AL playoff picture were pretty much dashed. Outside of the Angels or possibly the Padres, they have the biggest names that might be on the move at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, many of those big name players are struggling mightily this year, putting a damper on whatever return they might fetch in a trade.

The Nationals made their mark on the NL Wild Card race last weekend, outscoring the Giants 21–5 on their way to a three-game sweep. You can be sure that Jeimer Candelario will be on the move in a couple of weeks to the contender with the biggest hole at third base. There are enough talented youngsters on the Nats’ roster that they’ll likely continue to play spoiler down the stretch.

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