FanGraphs Power Rankings: July 14–23
The first FanGraphs Power Rankings of the second half of the season are here, and there are some significant movers in the rankings. As we hurtle toward the trade deadline, teams on the bubble have rapidly closing windows to get into the playoff picture or be left behind.
A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 64-34 | 1 | 120 | 92 | 83 | -8 | 159 | 100.0% |
| Rangers | 59-41 | -4 | 121 | 93 | 103 | 14 | 165 | 82.9% |
| Rays | 61-42 | -5 | 119 | 87 | 100 | 9 | 163 | 94.2% |
The Braves haven’t exactly had the smoothest start to the second half, losing consecutive series to the White Sox and Diamondbacks before taking two of three from the Brewers over the weekend, but they’re still miles ahead of any other team in the National League. As long as Ronald Acuña Jr. continues playing like the MVP favorite and Spencer Strider continues pitching like the Cy Young favorite, they’ll have an easy time walking into the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year.
The Rangers raced out with six straight wins after the All-Star break, including a sweep of the Rays earlier this week. The good times came to a halt over the weekend, as they were outscored 31–16 by the Dodgers. To make matters worse, Corey Seager exited Friday’s game with a sprained thumb, putting him on the IL for the second time this season. His timeline to return is still unclear, but Texas was able to weather his absence back in April.
The Rays limped into the All-Star break, and things haven’t gotten better since. They won their first series against the Royals but were swept by the Rangers and then lost a huge four-game series against the Orioles over the weekend, dropping them into second place in the AL East for the first time this season. The biggest problem has been an offense that’s suddenly a little inconsistent; they’ve scored just 4.1 runs per game over their last 20 contests and have scored more than five runs just once over their last 10.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 57-41 | -1 | 115 | 101 | 95 | -1 | 139 | 97.5% |
| Orioles | 61-38 | 7 | 105 | 102 | 87 | -9 | 116 | 88.0% |
| Blue Jays | 55-45 | 1 | 108 | 93 | 88 | -2 | 147 | 70.9% |
| Astros | 56-44 | 0 | 102 | 94 | 95 | 7 | 128 | 70.2% |
The Orioles have continued to exceed all expectations and now lead the hyper-competitive AL East. They recalled Grayson Rodriguez to give their rotation a shot in the arm and have a few more top prospects ready to make the leap to the majors should the need arise. It would be a little surprising to see them mortgage some of that future to bolster their roster this year since it’s already so deep with young talent. They did get some shopping done early, adding Shintaro Fujinami to help out a bullpen that’s been leaned on hard this season.
The Blue Jays aren’t the only team dealing with a rough start to the second half, but they don’t have much wiggle room to survive their inconsistencies in the crowded AL playoff picture. Their biggest issue is a stable of offensive stars who aren’t contributing up to their usual standards. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the Home Run Derby and has hit four dingers since the beginning of the second half, but his overall line still stands at just a 123 wRC+. George Springer, Daulton Varsho, and Alejandro Kirk are all struggling at the plate relative to their career norms, too. Their pitching staff is about to get a boost in the form of a healthy Hyun Jin Ryu, and they just added Génesis Cabrera to their bullpen. Toronto has a tough schedule heading into the trade deadline: three each against the Dodgers and Angels, and then a big four-game series against the Orioles next week.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 53-48 | -2 | 102 | 85 | 90 | -8 | 129 | 78.2% |
| Diamondbacks | 54-46 | 3 | 103 | 104 | 102 | 15 | 119 | 51.5% |
| Giants | 54-46 | 2 | 98 | 100 | 92 | 7 | 110 | 60.5% |
| Mariners | 50-49 | -2 | 100 | 94 | 93 | 12 | 131 | 14.7% |
| Padres | 48-52 | -8 | 103 | 88 | 102 | 16 | 146 | 35.9% |
| Red Sox | 53-47 | -1 | 107 | 106 | 92 | -33 | 100 | 28.3% |
Both the Diamondbacks and Giants find themselves looking up at the Dodgers in the NL West after Los Angeles’ surge up the standings after the All-Star break. Arizona has lost four straight and seven of nine in the second half; San Francisco has lost five straight after winning its first five games out of the gate. The D-Backs’ success has been fun to watch, but it feels like their roster is a little too flawed to keep up with the rest of the field. Between these two teams, the Giants’ excellent bullpen seems like the biggest differentiator.
And then there are the Padres, six games behind the Giants and Diamondbacks and ten games behind the Dodgers. They’re too talented to give up on this season yet, but their window to make a move up the standings is becoming smaller and smaller. They did manage to win both of their series last week and have a big four-game series against the Dodgers looming in two weeks, just after the trade deadline. It’s possible they hit the soft reset button and move a rejuvenated Blake Snell if they don’t make any headway in the standings before then.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 51-49 | -1 | 114 | 103 | 104 | -3 | 114 | 13.9% |
| Phillies | 53-46 | 3 | 98 | 90 | 94 | -4 | 105 | 65.4% |
| Brewers | 55-45 | 6 | 87 | 97 | 91 | 12 | 91 | 72.0% |
| Cubs | 48-51 | -6 | 101 | 96 | 95 | 4 | 115 | 13.1% |
| Yankees | 53-47 | 1 | 96 | 105 | 88 | 4 | 97 | 35.1% |
| Marlins | 54-47 | 6 | 98 | 92 | 99 | -10 | 82 | 48.0% |
| Reds | 55-46 | 5 | 98 | 109 | 93 | -9 | 63 | 36.6% |
| Guardians | 49-50 | 0 | 92 | 94 | 92 | 2 | 101 | 21.8% |
All eyes will be on the Angels over the next two weeks. The Shohei Ohtani question looms over everything they do, and it won’t go away until they trade him or the deadline passes with him still in Anaheim. They managed to climb back into the fringe of the AL playoff picture with a sweep of the Yankees and a series win over the Pirates last week. Mickey Moniak is trying to do his best Mike Trout impression while the latter is sidelined with a hand injury, but that might not be enough to get them over the hump.
The Reds and Brewers played six straight games against each other with the All-Star break sandwiched in the middle; Milwaukee walked away with five victories and reclaimed the lead in the NL Central. Cincinnati responded by winning five of its last seven against direct competitors in the NL Wild Card race. The Reds have got three more games in Milwaukee on tap this week followed by a three-game set in Los Angeles against the red-hot Dodgers.
The Guardians ended the first half of the season a half-game ahead of the Twins in the AL Central. That lead has been quickly erased, with Minnesota winning eight of its ten games after the midseason break as Cleveland has gone 4–5. An ugly sweep by the Rangers two weekends ago was the low point, but the Guardians have won back-to-back series and haven’t fallen out of the running in the division yet. Unfortunately, Shane Bieber hit the IL with an elbow injury, joining Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill on the shelf. Their stable of young rookie starters will have to lead the way now.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 44-56 | -4 | 110 | 107 | 103 | -8 | 104 | 5.4% |
| Mets | 46-53 | -2 | 102 | 109 | 108 | -6 | 70 | 14.0% |
| Pirates | 43-56 | 1 | 89 | 104 | 103 | 0 | 63 | 0.3% |
| Tigers | 45-54 | 5 | 86 | 105 | 100 | 4 | 58 | 1.6% |
Like the Padres, the Mets are quickly running out of time to get back into the playoff picture. They’re not even on the fringe right now like San Diego is, and they don’t have the solid underlying production to give them hope for a turnaround. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer aren’t carrying the load for the rotation, and it’s clear that Edwin Díaz’s absence has hurt the bullpen more than expected. There aren’t that many pieces they can sell off at this point, and too many of their aging stars are locked into huge long-term contracts. Of all the teams in this tier, they’re the one that’s truly stuck in no man’s land.
| Team | Record | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 41-58 | 0 | 95 | 106 | 122 | -1 | 57 | 0.0% |
| White Sox | 41-60 | -2 | 88 | 107 | 109 | -10 | 32 | 0.2% |
| Royals | 28-73 | -6 | 81 | 117 | 110 | 16 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Rockies | 39-60 | 2 | 79 | 124 | 95 | -13 | 28 | 0.0% |
| Athletics | 28-74 | 0 | 89 | 138 | 129 | -10 | 17 | 0.0% |
After getting swept by the Twins over the weekend, whatever slim hopes the White Sox had in climbing back into the AL playoff picture were pretty much dashed. Outside of the Angels or possibly the Padres, they have the biggest names that might be on the move at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, many of those big name players are struggling mightily this year, putting a damper on whatever return they might fetch in a trade.
The Nationals made their mark on the NL Wild Card race last weekend, outscoring the Giants 21–5 on their way to a three-game sweep. You can be sure that Jeimer Candelario will be on the move in a couple of weeks to the contender with the biggest hole at third base. There are enough talented youngsters on the Nats’ roster that they’ll likely continue to play spoiler down the stretch.
…
| Rank | Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braves | 64-34 | 1 | 120 | 92 | 83 | -8 | 159 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2 | Rangers | 59-41 | -4 | 121 | 93 | 103 | 14 | 165 | 82.9% | 1 |
| 3 | Rays | 61-42 | -5 | 119 | 87 | 100 | 9 | 163 | 94.2% | -1 |
| 4 | Dodgers | 57-41 | -1 | 115 | 101 | 95 | -1 | 139 | 97.5% | 3 |
| 5 | Orioles | 61-38 | 7 | 105 | 102 | 87 | -9 | 116 | 88.0% | 3 |
| 6 | Blue Jays | 55-45 | 1 | 108 | 93 | 88 | -2 | 147 | 70.9% | -2 |
| 7 | Astros | 56-44 | 0 | 102 | 94 | 95 | 7 | 128 | 70.2% | -2 |
| 8 | Twins | 53-48 | -2 | 102 | 85 | 90 | -8 | 129 | 78.2% | 8 |
| 9 | Diamondbacks | 54-46 | 3 | 103 | 104 | 102 | 15 | 119 | 51.5% | -3 |
| 10 | Giants | 54-46 | 2 | 98 | 100 | 92 | 7 | 110 | 60.5% | -1 |
| 11 | Mariners | 50-49 | -2 | 100 | 94 | 93 | 12 | 131 | 14.7% | -1 |
| 12 | Padres | 48-52 | -8 | 103 | 88 | 102 | 16 | 146 | 35.9% | -1 |
| 13 | Red Sox | 53-47 | -1 | 107 | 106 | 92 | -33 | 100 | 28.3% | 4 |
| 14 | Angels | 51-49 | -1 | 114 | 103 | 104 | -3 | 114 | 13.9% | 1 |
| 15 | Phillies | 53-46 | 3 | 98 | 90 | 94 | -4 | 105 | 65.4% | -2 |
| 16 | Brewers | 55-45 | 6 | 87 | 97 | 91 | 12 | 91 | 72.0% | 3 |
| 17 | Cubs | 48-51 | -6 | 101 | 96 | 95 | 4 | 115 | 13.1% | 3 |
| 18 | Yankees | 53-47 | 1 | 96 | 105 | 88 | 4 | 97 | 35.1% | -4 |
| 19 | Marlins | 54-47 | 6 | 98 | 92 | 99 | -10 | 82 | 48.0% | -7 |
| 20 | Reds | 55-46 | 5 | 98 | 109 | 93 | -9 | 63 | 36.6% | -2 |
| 21 | Guardians | 49-50 | 0 | 92 | 94 | 92 | 2 | 101 | 21.8% | 0 |
| 22 | Cardinals | 44-56 | -4 | 110 | 107 | 103 | -8 | 104 | 5.4% | 0 |
| 23 | Mets | 46-53 | -2 | 102 | 109 | 108 | -6 | 70 | 14.0% | 0 |
| 24 | Pirates | 43-56 | 1 | 89 | 104 | 103 | 0 | 63 | 0.3% | 0 |
| 25 | Tigers | 45-54 | 5 | 86 | 105 | 100 | 4 | 58 | 1.6% | 0 |
| 26 | Nationals | 41-58 | 0 | 95 | 106 | 122 | -1 | 57 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 27 | White Sox | 41-60 | -2 | 88 | 107 | 109 | -10 | 32 | 0.2% | 0 |
| 28 | Royals | 28-73 | -6 | 81 | 117 | 110 | 16 | 51 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 29 | Rockies | 39-60 | 2 | 79 | 124 | 95 | -13 | 28 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 30 | Athletics | 28-74 | 0 | 89 | 138 | 129 | -10 | 17 | 0.0% | 0 |
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.
Okay, the Orioles are really starting to get on my nerves. When is the regression coming? I’ve been waiting since the second half of last year and it still hasn’t come. How did they just magically flip the script and become the 2nd best team (record wise) in baseball? They’re much improved of course, but on paper, there should be several teams ahead of them (and yes, I’m an annoyed fan of one of those teams).
I know this comment is offered somewhat in jest, but I feel this is actually a common mistake that a lot of writers and analysts make with rebuilding teams. Group think takes over so all you hear is how x or y team won’t hit their next window of contention for 5 or 6 years. When the timeline and pieces come together perfectly, that window always seems to open a year earlier than anyone expected. That’s where the O’s are. Even this year, when they’ve been in contention from the get go, I still feel like the media’s been sleeping on them. On paper, maybe they didn’t look as strong as some other contenders early on, but they had a farm system with 5 or 6 impact prospects that could (and did) bolster the roster throughout the year. That’s maybe a factor that isn’t given enough credit in preseason analysis and, especially, projections.
I know Eric says this like constantly but guys PLAYER DEVELOPMENT IS NONLINEAR. That also means rebuilds are nonlinear! Sometimes they click early, sometimes late, sometimes not at all
Also, sometimes they will click early, seem like they arrived ahead of schedule, then regress the following season before getting back on track. In the last half-decade or so both the Padres and White Sox did versions of that.
The Orioles have hit faster than expected because some guys have moved faster than expected so they hit critical mass sooner. That doesn’t mean they won’t hit a bump of some kind, either.
Like everything else in baseball analysis, all you can do is consider probabilities. And even when something happens faster or more strongly than expected, the possibility of a bump in the road hasn’t been removed. There’s reasons why the Orioles are probably both lucky and good right now; if those things bite them for a while, they’ll look weaker than they actually are.
Also a truism I’m starting to adopt in baseball is that in about 85% of baseball games, the team that loses looks worse than it is and the team that wins looks better than it is. Closely-fought games where both teams look good are pretty rare, even if they are (I just watched the Dodgers thump 2/3 against both the Orioles and Rangers, and neither TEX or BAL looked very good in them .. but you usually don’t look good when you’re losing, just like the Dodgers looked bad in both games they lost)
Rebuilds seem to always come either early or not at all.
As an Orioles fan, I have no idea. Even our vaunted bullpen is essentially just Bautista, and that one month of Cano doing all the heavy lifting. The rest of it is average or worse.
Seconded. Along with the Rangers FA black magic I refuse to believe this is how the full season plays out.
The regression isn’t coming. They had some starters that were awful that skewed the run differential. That has largely been corrected. Their backend of the bullpen is lights out which can explain some “luck.”. Finally, the young players are only going to improve. Henderson, Cowser, Westburg, and Rodriguez will get better not worse. So, yes there was likely some luck in the past, but the team is much better now than it was in April or May. At a certain point you have to look at the results especially against the best teams. They are well over .500 against the AL East. They have a winning record vs the Rays. They haven’t been swept once this year. And they have great records not only at home but on the road.
How come I don’t see the name of the most important part of the renaissance mentioned? It all began on 05/21/2022 when Adley Rutschman made his first appearance in an Orioles uniform. The future is almost comparable to what Braves’ fans can look forward to over the next several years which isn’t good for my Red Sox.
Its a little optimistic overall, because there’s not actually a guarantee that the young players will only improve – in fact its fairly normal for young players who show up and are immediately outstanding to hit a doldrum at some point when the league finally figures out a good way to attack them and they have to adapt for the first time (and in some cases, they fail to adapt at all). It’s just not a lock that all those good young talented players will keep getting better – some of them will stay as good as they are, and some of them will never be as good as they are in their first few months to a year in the bigs.
Young *stars* tend to stay good. The Sotos, Acunas, and so forth. But many guys who look like stars for a few months to a year don’t continue to look like that, and some of them don’t even stay major leaguers once the league finds a way to attack them successfully (Think Yasiel Puig, or Aristedes Aquino). And we can mostly only tell those two groups apart in retrospect (with some allowance for age at debut, where guys like Acuna and Soto were barely 20 and very few non-stars can perform at that age)
I don’t think I ever saw Aristedes Aquino being touted as a future star, or even a major leaguer. Most of these Oriole prospects are very highly valued and the sheer number of young players that are performing very well throughout their system should, given a reasonable amount of luck, produce several well above average major league players. Did anyone predict in the spring of 2022 that the Orioles, a team that lost 110 games in 2021, would be leading the toughest division in baseball on July 24, 2023. What the Birds have accomplished is spectacular and the future looks undeniably bright but there will there be bumps and potholes, That, in no way, should lessen the smile across the face of every Orioles fan.
A month ago their luck was +6 and this time it’s +7 (14-9 in this stretch). So only +1 in the past month. Not an Orioles fan but from the surface level seems to be that their luck is not continuing, but it’s also not going the other way (bad luck) and team is getting better which one can reasonably expect from a young team.
There’s a common saying concerning markets that they can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Something similar could be said with respect to expected regression in the context of a single baseball season.
This is it. You would not expect this over 162 games. But there are 30 teams in baseball and every year brings a fresh 30 opportunities for this to happen. So every now and again you get something like this. It just happens.
The O’s have been doing this since June 2022, which is over 200 games. At some point, the logical thing would be to say that it isn’t just luck and they probably are pretty good, even if they may not be second best in the AL. Their run differential this year is essentially the same as the Astros.
I have had this debate with several Brewers and Rays fans who are convinced that their teams are beating their run differential with…a killer bullpen? Shifting? Depth? It depends on the conversation. But the record of teams beating their run differential over and over again is not good.
In this case, the Orioles BaseRuns record is 51-48 and their Pythagorean record is 54-45. It isn’t one thing. They’ve been good sequencing luck on offense, and then they’ve been having good luck with the distribution of runs in the games themselves.
This is unusual, but it’s not unheard of. This stuff happens every so often. In 2021, the Mariners beat their BaseRuns and Pythagorean by +16 and +14, respectively. They also beat it pretty convincingly in 2019, but had a more expected result in 2022 and are actually slightly underperforming this year.
The Rangers overperformed by +13 in both BaseRuns and run differential in 2016, and if you’ve been following the Rangers in the subsequent years you’ll see that they couldn’t keep that up.
I wouldn’t predict that it will continue, but if it does? This stuff happens.
Fair enough. I am a cautiously optimistic O’s fan. I recognize the team’s limitations. On the other hand, I am also aware that they have been doing this for nearly 4 months this year, and also for the last 4 months last year. That’s why I said 200 games.
Do I have any idea what could be helping the Os outperform the models for 8 straight months? Not really. It likely is luck to a significant degree (although that explanation has to give way at some point). But, the odds of it being something else are increasing.
One thing that probably helps, like some of the comments below observe, is being pretty good at almost every position. That does seem to produce consistently good results over time, perhaps better than expected. Or, perhaps, as noted above, it is something Adley Rutschman is doing (maybe being absurdly good at pitch calling?)..
There are always cases where the modeling doesn’t capture everything. For example, as FanGraphs demonstrated very well a number of years ago, team ERA generally does not substantially overperform FIP consistently. It’s a strong part of the argument for FIP. There are outliers, however. Sticking with my favorite team, by sheer coincidence, the O’s team ERA was an average of nearly half a run better than team FIP from the mid-1960s into the mid-1980s. Almost unheard of. But, in retrospect, also kind of understandable–their fielding, particularly in the infield, was that good.
What you’re talking about is the projections for individual players being wrong. It is entirely possible that these guys are much better than the projections give them credit for. In that case we would expect their team wRC+ to be higher or opponents’ wRC+ to be lower.
That’s different than beating your BaseRuns record by 10 games. BaseRuns isn’t a projection, it is a retrospective measure. It tells us that the Orioles have way outperformed their own wRC+ and that of their opponents’.
That is an interesting point. I think I understand what you are saying, and I surely understand the feeling you are expressing.
Even as an O’s fan, it is very clear they are not a .600 team. Their run differential is that of a .550 team (about the same as the Blue Jays and Red Sox). Further, you and others are pointing out that the O’s actual on-field performance would ordinarily be expected to produce a .520 team according to the Base Runs model. That would still be good, and notably better than last year, but it would be last in the AL East. I get it and I recognize the model producing that projection has been pretty strongly supported by a large body of evidence.
The O’s were the luckiest team in baseball last year (tied with two others). I don’t know where to find Base Runs for prior seasons, but I am willing to be the O’s also exceeded it rather handily last year.
The O’s are the luckiest team in baseball again this year. And, they have an absurd record in one-run games (although they were essentially neutral last year). A quick glance at the past 5+ years shows it is unusual to be so lucky, but it wouldn’t be unexpected. Milwaukee and Seattle were both among the luckiest teams multiple times over that period.
The only thing I am saying is that the longer this goes on, the harder it will be to chalk it up to just luck. For example, the O’s were one of the two unluckiest teams in baseball in 2018, 2019, and 2020. I think it is possible that that wasn’t all bad luck but, rather, some additional element of badness that isn’t captured by the Pythagorean model.
Similarly, if the O’s keep exceeding their Pythagorean and Base Runs projections over the next two months, it might be time to question whether we are missing something. And, it would become even more likely if the O’s continue to outperform next year as well. I know it probably won’t happen (although I’d be happy if it did).
Looking at their actual results so far, and adjusting for sequencing and run differential, and the Orioles look like a .500ish team.
Fangraphs depth charts see the Orioles as a slightly below .500 team going forward, and Zips is a little higher on them, but has them at slightly >.500, per Szym’s all-star update article.
The fact that they are actually a .600 team is definitely somewhat related to luck, but some of it may not be.
Outperforming projections:
Os have the best AAA team stacked with both vets and prospects – they are effective at cycling guys up and down and given they are drawing from such a deep bench they are more likely to hit on the guys hitting their 75% projections in a year than a team with a thinner crop.
This depth has also allowed them to better weather injuries.
Os have a deep bench allowing effective platoons – they have platoon advantage in almost 70% of PA this year, which leads the majors.
Outperforming run differential:
Back-end of bullpen has been elite
Luck:
Sequencing, fewer injuries, guys just temporarily outperforming their true talent level.
Absent patent absurdities like the 2019-2022 Dodgers (who averaged 108 wins and under-performed their expected record doing it), it is worth remembering that the teams getting the best results in baseball at any given time are typically the good to great teams that are also the luckiest in that timeframe, from in-game sequencing to injury luck (both theirs and their opponents’). That’s why basically every team you’ve ever seen (except those Dodgers) exceed 105 wins or so has has over-performed their pythag expected record, and so on.
This is also true in the postseason – the World Series is won by the good playoff team who has the best luck in the playoffs. The opponent’s best player gets hurt. A guy who has been a league-average hitter for 10 years suddenly spends 2 weeks being Mike Trout. Those things decide who wins playoff series much more than the talent levels of the teams involved (which are never that disparate)
Because when everyone is good, in a game where there’s a lot of factors you cannot control, how those things shake down ends up being quite influential on the outcome.
They actually have a good amount of depth. They do a ton of matchup platoons and there aren’t many true offensive holes in the lineup. They‘re also fortunate that Ryan O’Hearn has suddenly been great filling in for Mountcastle.
You can win a lot of games if almost everyone is Pretty Good
You can win a lot of games if almost everyone is Pretty Good
I imagine there’s a plaque with this adage on it in the Rays front office
Even more than that. it’s literally the Cardinal Way
Perhaps, but the Rays do it 65% less insufferably 😀
I think the difference with the Rays is that while they certainly churn out some nice players, where they really excel is in taking some really limited players with one or two standout skills and finding a way to use them that maximizes that while minimizing their chance for their weaknesses to be exploited.
The Rays produce 50-55 type players, but also find ways to use 40 and 45 type players in limited roles that allow them to provide 50-55 type value in very restricted circumstances, and don’t water that down by trying to let those guys establish themselves as more rounded players by giving them any opportunities outside of their best-case scenarios.
The regression isn’t coming if they remain healthy. They are young, hungry, talented, lucky and keep improving with experience – in my mind, the metrics here continue to underrate them.
They are legit World Series contenders, if not AL favorites. They are going to make your life miserable (I say in jest) for a long time….
I dont know how you can keep putting the Royals ahead of the Rockies. The Rockies stink; the Royals are absolutely horrific.
Yeah, there’s a definite pecking order at the bottom of the standings: the Nationals, then a gap down to the Rockies, then a small gap to KC, then a chasm to Oakland. KC is definitely a bit better than their record would suggest, and Oakland, somehow, is worse than their record suggests.
Keep in mind that while this is a power ranking, it’s one using a fixed statistical formula, and if you look at the inputs in the chart its not hard to see how the Royals end up above the Rockies – their starting pitching is very minorly better, and it sees a 30 run gap in defense between the two teams.
With that said, I suspect I’d take the Rockies over the Royals if they played 31 games head to head or whatever.
I’ve given up on trying to figure out what goes into these rankings. It seems like it is a formula, until it isn’t. The inputs don’t really make a lot of sense, and so it seems like there is some manual correction going on.
Like, you could just do BaseRuns and it would be just like this except it would be be better.
Pretty sure this is just a way to generate a brief league summary post each week and create a place for people to talk about it
I dont know that its particularly valuable, but it always gets engagement so .. it’s better than most of the alternative versions of this (mlb, espn, etc)
These rankings have failed to make sense since they debuted. Some placements seem laughable.
I personally think the Guardians are in a lot of trouble. Their current rotation is Aaron Civale, 3 rookies, and an opener. That’s putting a lot of pressure on the bullpen which has already blown 4 leads since the All-Star break.
Seems like there are a bunch of above-average teams with some serious SP questions. The Dodgers basically aren’t in the top tier because they need like 2 starting pitchers, and the Jays are well placed despite Manoah’s 2023 debacle.
Yeah, it’s definitely a problem. I said to my family the other day that the Guards might need to trade for a Starter for the first time in years.
I wish they would stretch out Curry and let him fly, though. He’s good.
They’re expecting Quantrill back soon but uh… that’s not really a help. He’s been absolutely horrible this year.
And just like that Shane Bieber gets transferred to the 60 day IL. Sigh…
He wasn’t expected back until September anyway. All this does is make it official and clear a 26-man spot.
Boston’s RAA is -33, which is 20 lower than the 2nd worst team? Is that a data error or are they really that bad?!
Oh yeah, they’re BAD. I checked the leaderboards to make sure the RAA number was right (it is) and they’re at -43 OAA.
That experiment with Hernandez at SS was a disaster, but I didn’t realize the rest of the defense was so atrocious. I saw they were playing Justin Turner at 2B last week, so the middle infield crisis must be existential right now.
Team/stadium fixed effects?
Their entire starting infield is below average defensively. It’s not Hernandez’s fault that he’s a bad shortstop now but this was the foreseeable outcome of Story needing surgery, which people knew was possible before he signed his deal before last season.
Hernandez was never a good shortstop, he could just do it if it had to be done. The Dodgers pretty notably put him there only as an absolute last resort when they had lots of flexible players who could play there, with him being below Chris Taylor on the pecking order at short, but Hernandez in turn being a better outfielder.
I cant imagine why a team would have run Hernandez out there at shortstop for any sustained period on purpose. The guy is a flexible defender and has historically been good at it, but the Dodgers always actively avoided placing him at either left side infield position.
On the one hand, every single Boston defender with a minimum of 120 innings at a position has below average except Jarren Durran in CF, Alex Verdugo in RF, Yu Chang at shortstop, and Justin Turner at first base. But that’s not particularly noteworthy. Sometimes that happens.
What is noteworthy is that you can literally attribute a third of this to Enrique Hernandez playing the infield instead of the outfield. Remember when the Red Sox decided that they didn’t need a shortstop because Trevor Story was going to come back midseason, so they were going to move their excellent defensive center fielder there? And then they were going to replace him with Adam Duvall, who is a good defensive corner outfielder but might be stretched a bit in center field? Here’s how that has gone:
Hernandez at SS: -10 RAA (484 innings)
Chang at SS: +1 RAA (175 innings)
Hernandez at CF: +1 RAA (87 innings)
Duvall at CF: -3 RAA (244 innings)
Duran at CF: +1 RAA (483 innings)
I feel like every so often a front office goes all galaxy brain and decides positions don’t matter, like with the Reds and Eugenio Suarez playing shortstop. They’re just too cheap to shell out for someone who can actually play defense there. And then you get something like moving your good defensive outfielder to become the worst defensive shortstop in the game. They’re still in the wild card race so it’s hard to second guess them too much but you know how much further ahead they would be if they had worked out a reasonable extension with Xander Bogaerts a couple of years ago? Or if they had signed Dansby Swanson?
The issue w/ Swanson or Bogaerts for them was that they already had Story signed and Mayer coming up in the minors.
Plus, Devers at 3B and Casas is their guy at 1B, so that makes it harder to move guys around.
I think they were correct in not signing those guys to long term deals. What they really needed was a short term fix at SS who could also move to 2B. Kim would have been a great fit
At some point, if you want to win now, you’re going to block guys. It’s definitely a choice.
That said, Kim would have been perfect, even without his 2023 breakout. Of course, so would Miguel Rojas (which wouldn’t have worked out if they had done it).
That’s fair but also, I’d say the redsox aren’t yet in a position where they feel comfortable hurting long term flexibility for short term gain.
If they added X or Swanson, it would essentially mean either Story was going to eventually get salary dumped or Mayer would be moved in a blockbuster
I don’t think either really made sense for them. Especially the former which would have seemed very reactionary and probably not worth it in a value perspective anyways
But yeah, someone like Dejong would have been good
The Red Sox were the team that probably should have done what the Dodgers did and picked up a Miguel Rojas type to fill in until Story came back, because there’s never been a good reason to think Hernandez was a capable defensive SS. The Dodgers deployed that guy at literally every position but catcher, but he was below literally everyone (even Chris Taylor) in their willingness to stick him at short and third, and they had ample opportunities to use him that way (like in 2018 when Seager was out before they got Machado), and Taylor always got that job. The Dodgers aren’t idiots, and their opinion about those two players’ ability to play shortstop wasn’t concealed.
I’d argue that Strider and his 3.78 ERA do not make him a CY favorite
His other stats clearly put him in the race.
Agreed, and I think his .330 BABIP should regress. He’s certainly a candidate, but not the front runner IMO. I’d give that honor to Gallen.
I think quite a few of his stats warrant calling him a front runner though. He’s 2nd in xERA and 1st in xFIP and SEIRA, dominating with SEIRA btw.
It’s just odd to me to pick a stat in ERA that while the majority of people who follow baseball would use, the statheads typically don’t care about any more compared to other stats.
I do think he gets so much attention because of his strike out rate, which is insane, but is also over blown because of the amount of attention it gets. If that makes sense.
Sorry. The actual results that you put up while actually playing the game in the field are mean a whole lot more for awards than x stats. Feel free to weigh them more heavily if you’re deciding on whether or not to make someone a contract offer. But choosing who had the better year? Get real.
I think he’s going to shock some traditionalists who don’t follow ERA estimators in 2024 because to me he’s potentially the best pitcher in baseball right now. And he has a puncher’s chance because most of the pitchers with super-shiny ERAs are in the AL (Eovaldi, Cole, McClanahan, Valdez) and because Blake Snell plays for a bad team and doesn’t pitch a ton of innings either.
But it sure seems to me like this is Zac Gallen’s race to lose.
I shouldn’t say: The Padres aren’t bad. In fact they’re quite good. But they’re definitely at the periphery of the playoff race and Strider is not.
He’d have the highest ERA ever for a Cy Young winner. Throw in the fact that he’s not in the top 10 in innings pitched and I think he’s facing an uphill battle. Though this obviously depends a bit on the composition of the voters.
his ERA is definitely coming down from that
Does anyone know why Zack Wheeler has 0.7 more fWAR than Strider despite pitching only 2 more innings and carrying an identical FIP? Asking out of genuine curiosity, I thought pitcher fWAR was basically just FIP x innings pitched.
Guessing it’s park effects
Ah, that must be it! Thanks.
Philly has always been a pretty strong hitters park so it makes sense that an equivalent performance there would be more valuable than it is at a basically neutral park, which I think is how Truist has graded out since the winds changed after the rest of the development around the park completed.
This is definitely it. Right-handed power plays well in Philadelphia.
“Edwin Diaz’s absence has hurt the Mets more than expected”? Really? When the unquestioned dominate closer is out for the season disaster is feared, and catastrophe has happened. I think when it happened it was completely expected to decimate the bullpen, which it did, and in some way also broke the spirit of the team.
The rotation being a disaster hurt the team more and having guys like Nogosek, and Hunter in the pen for two months didn’t help things.
The degree of the bullpen disaster was unexpected, I think, and represents a lower-end outcome. While losing your best guy for the entire season is obviously a tough blow, bullpens generally operate under the expectation that many guys will miss some time, and bullpens we expect to be good are that way because they have depth. If the Mets had had 3 good relievers, we wouldn’t have expected a good bullpen even with Diaz.
But a lot of the guys who had to step up without him there have underperformed, AND the rotation has underperformed, and that has driven even more innings to the underperforming bullpen. The struggle of the other half of the staff makes the bullpen’s problem even worse as it absorbs more innings when you expected some of those guys to reliably pitch 6 or 7 innings. This extra use hits the guys who do perform even harder because they get overused if some of the others aren’t performing, and eventually they break down or lose effectiveness, too.
When both halves of your staff struggle, you get an outcome worse than the sum of its parts because of the transfer of innings from the rotation to the struggling bullpen.
And that’s basically the story of the Mets. And heck, to a lesser degree its a story of the Dodgers, who are in a better position because their bullpen started strong before getting depleted by injury and overuse due to the struggles of the rotation. It’s recently come back into form and pitched well, and that differentiates it from the Mets constant fest of suck, and suggests it is possible – but it depended a lot on having the luxury of fantastic offense (which the Mets lack) and a winning record that let them send some of those dudes down to AAA to reset and work things out (see Vesia, Alex, among others)
The Mets haven’t really been able to do that because they can’t stop the bleeding and because they dont have the offense to win a decent chunk of the games where they give up 4-5 runs the way the Dodgers often can.
I think the Mets could get a good return for Robertson, he was traded for Ben Brown last year and Brown has become a very good prospect and Robertson has been better this year than he was last year as he’s cut his walk rate by a good deal. Pham is having a very strong year and hits the ball as hard as almost anyone in baseball I could see him being packaged in a deal with Robertson and get a good return. There are teams interested in Quintana per Andy Martino and if the offers are good enough with teams desperate for starters they could get something interesting for him as well.
Luck, thy name is Felix Bautista
Bautista has a fip of 1.45
He’s saying that Bautista’s awesomeness is driving the Orioles “luck”.
Strider is not the Cy Young favorite with a 3.78 ERA. I don’t care what his underlying statistics are, or how many strikeouts he has. Doesn’t even have a top 10 bWAR for NL pitchers.
look at the betting odds