FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 19–25

With just a few weeks until the All-Star break, the best teams in the league have continued to separate themselves from the pack. There’s a huge contingent of teams vying over the remaining playoff berths in both the AL and the NL, and the relative weakness of the Central divisions has left the door open for clubs that would otherwise be considered out of the running.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays are in the middle of their first big slump of the season. They split both of their series against the Orioles and Royals last week, and haven’t won a series since taking two of three from the Rangers June 9–11. Their bullpen is scuffling, superstar wunderkind Wander Franco was benched for a couple of games for internal disciplinary reasons, and Shane McClanahan exited his start on Thursday early with back tightness. Both of those players seem to be on the mend, but Tampa has a pretty tough schedule as they head into the All-Star break, with three each against the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Phillies, and Braves.

The Braves are simply running away with the National League. They’re six games clear of the next best team in the league, possess a 60-run advantage in run differential over the Dodgers, and have won 17 of their last 20 games. Their eight-game win streak was snapped on Friday in an 11-10 shootout, but they managed to cool off the red hot Reds over the next two games. A big series against the Marlins, the team closest to them in the NL East standings, looms this weekend.

The Orioles continue to set the pace for the AL Wild Card race, splitting two games with the Rays and winning two of three against the Mariners last week. Cedric Mullins was just activated from the IL, Anthony Santander has been on fire — he’s blasted home runs in five of his past six games — and Baltimore announced it would be calling up Jordan Westburg, another one of the club’s top prospects. The Orioles will finish off the first half of the season with three against the Reds, three against the division rival Yankees, and six against the Twins.

The Angels outscored their opponents 32-16 in five games last week and lost four of them. Their record-breaking 25-run outburst on Saturday was the obvious highlight, but when it came to actual results in the win-loss columns, Los Angeles really suffered. The depth of the roster has been strained, with Zach Neto, Anthony Rendon, and Gio Urshela all suffering injuries last week. They proactively addressed those concerns by trading for Eduardo Escobar and Mike Moustakas over the weekend and recalling David Fletcher from Triple-A.

The Twins are barely holding on to the lead in the AL Central, and losing to the Tigers four times in seven games over the last two weeks certainly hasn’t helped their cause. They have one of the best starting rotations in the game — Joe Ryan spun a complete game shutout on Thursday, Sonny Gray is in the midst of a career renaissance, and Kenta Maeda was just activated off the IL over the weekend — but despite that strength, they’ve been unable to create any sort of distance between themselves and the rest of their division. Things won’t get any easier as they head into the All-Star break; they travel to Atlanta this week and also have six games against the Orioles on the docket.

The Yankees received some pretty unfortunate news about Aaron Judge’s toe last week. The injury is worse than expected and his return is still very much up in the air; it would be a surprise if he came back before the All-Star game. New York has gone 7-10 in his absence, and that record is a lot better than it was a week ago thanks to two series wins against the Mariners and Rangers. There is some good news, though: Carlos Rodón finally started his rehab assignment and should return to the majors relatively soon.

The Marlins continue to surprise everyone and now possess the third-best record in the National League. They lost their series to the Blue Jays early last week but took three of four from the Pirates over the weekend. A rejuvenated Jorge Soler is powering the offense, while Luis Arraez continues his historic chase for .400. Eury Pérez has been lights out in June, allowing just a single run across five starts this month with an elite 7.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. They have big divisional battles against the Braves and Phillies looming over the next two weeks.

The Braves were finally able to cool off the Reds last weekend, snapping Cincinnati’s win streak at 12 games. Elly De La Cruz continues to find new ways to show why he’s one of the most dynamic players in the game right now. On Friday, he hit for the cycle against Atlanta, the fifth-youngest player and third-quickest to accomplish that feat. The Reds are one of the most exciting teams in baseball right now, but their roster still has holes. Their two losses this weekend exposed their weakness, and their +7 run differential this month despite a 15-8 record shows just how lucky they’ve been getting recently. Their pitching staff desperately needs some help if they want to steal the NL Central crown.

The Guardians have steadily kept pace with the Twins, just below .500 and within striking distance of the AL Central lead. Their surprise playoff appearance last season and subsequent slow start a year later hasn’t deterred them from really embracing their youth movement. They still have the youngest roster in the majors, and they got even younger when they cut Mike Zunino and called up Bo Naylor, their top position player prospect. Of course, when you’ve got a bunch of youngsters on the roster who don’t hit for much power, it can make it hard to see how they’re going to climb the standings in the second half of the season. But that’s what we thought this time last year when they were in the same position and they wound up winning 92 games anyway.

The Pirates roller coaster of a season has hit another low. After racing out to a 20-8 record, a 1-11 stretch dropped them back towards .500 in May. They hovered around there for a while and finally climbed back atop the NL Central with an 8-3 stretch at the beginning of this month. It’s been all downhill from there — they’ve won just one of their last 13 games and it looks like they’re turning towards auditioning some of their prospects rather than giving their veterans the chance to turn things around; Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales were both recently called up. You can kind of see the pieces of a competitive roster in Pittsburgh — Ke’Bryan Hayes continues to show some tantalizing promise, Oneil Cruz’s return can’t come soon enough, and Mitch Keller looks like a frontline starter — but this won’t be the year when it all coalesces.

Time is running out for the White Sox. The mediocrity of the AL Central means they’re just six games back in their division, but they haven’t played inspiring baseball in quite a while. They won a series for the first time in two weeks over the weekend and won’t play a division foe until well after the All-Star break. They’ll need to decide quickly if it’s worth trying to stick out this season with the talent they have assembled, or if they’re better off selling at the deadline as part of a quick reset. Plenty of other teams will be calling about the availability of the players on their roster.

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