FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 18–24

We’ve made it to the final week of the season, and both Wild Card races are still up in the air. Unfortunately, MLB’s expanded postseason field has led to the elimination of tiebreaker games in favor of tiebreaker mathematics. So while we’re barreling towards a dramatic finish in both those playoff races, the regular season will be over for good on Sunday. The next edition of these power rankings will evaluate the playoff field next week.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

All the Braves needed to do over these last few weeks of the season was get to the postseason healthy and ready to make a deep run in October, but that plan has begun to unravel a bit. Last week, they placed both Max Fried and Charlie Morton on the IL, though the former should be ready for the NLDS since his injury is just a minor blister issue. Still, losing one of their best starters in Morton isn’t ideal as they head into the playoffs. In more encouraging news, Ronald Acuña Jr. became the fifth player to join the 40–40 club on Friday and is now the only member of the 40–50 and 40–60 clubs; he could even hit the 40–70 mark this week.

The Dodgers put the first nail in the Giants’ coffin, winning three of four against them last weekend. They’ve got a first-round bye locked up but probably won’t be able to chase down the Braves for the best record in baseball during this final week of the season. They’ll spend that time figuring out their playoff rotation and making sure everyone gets to the postseason healthy. To that end, it was encouraging to see Clayton Kershaw spin five shutout innings on Saturday, his second shutout performance in a row, coming off his shoulder injury.

After an up-and-down start to the month, the Rangers have now won five straight, including three against the Mariners last weekend. Injuries have thinned out their pitching staff, but they’ve finally gotten healthy on offense, activating both Adolis García and Josh Jung off the IL last week. Even with the lineup fully stocked, their bullpen may still be their downfall; Texas’ relievers have allowed 65 runs to score in September, tied for second most this month behind the Braves.

With the Rangers taking control of the AL West and the Blue Jays gaining ground in the AL Wild Card race, it seems like the battle over the final Wild Card spot will come down to the Mariners and Astros, both of whom were swept in three games last weekend. Neither team has been playing all that well this month, with nearly identical records (8–13 for Houston and 8–14 for Seattle), and now they’ll face each other three times in Seattle to start this week.

The Orioles suffered through three bullpen meltdowns last week, though they managed a series win in Houston and a split of a four-game series in Cleveland. They’re still in command of the AL East and should enter the playoffs as the top seed. Still, their bullpen hasn’t been as strong since losing Félix Bautista, their All-Star closer; since he went on the IL, Baltimore’s relievers have allowed 50 runs, 16th in the majors. More worrying is their collective strikeout rate, which has fallen to just 17.2% during that stretch. If the O’s want to make a deep run into October, they need their relief corps firing on all cylinders.

The Phillies survived their final gauntlet before the end of the season last week, winning two of three against the Braves and then sweeping the Mets in four games. That all but assures their entry into the postseason as the top Wild Card in the NL. Nick Castellanos blasted five home runs last week, and Bryce Harper chipped in three of his own. They’ve been overshadowed by some of the other powerhouses in the NL and spent a lot of the first half of the season floundering with Harper and Trea Turner scuffling, but they’ve come on strong during the second half of the season.

With a particularly tough schedule during the final week of the season, the Cubs desperately needed some wins against the Rockies last weekend to remain in the NL Wild Card race. They wound up sweeping them in three games and now head into their final six games against the Braves and Brewers tied with the Diamondbacks and a game ahead of the Marlins. Meanwhile, Miami has much easier opponents left on the schedule, though the Marlins will play all six remaining games on the road in New York and Pittsburgh.

That final NL Wild Card spot will almost certainly come down to the Cubs or the Marlins, but the Reds, Giants, and Padres have yet to be eliminated. Chicago’s good fortune last weekend put a damper on the potential miracle run the Padres appeared to be making over the last few weeks. San Diego and San Francisco enter this week tied in the standings, and a lot of things need to go their way if either team is going to sneak into the playoffs. It’s likely too little, too late for the Padres, but they’ve finally been playing up to the level of talent on their roster over the last few weeks. Unfortunately, their record in extra innings games dropped to 0–12 on Saturday, which snapped their eight-game win streak.

The Yankees have some real soul searching to do this offseason, but at least they might have figured out a piece of their starting rotation. Michael King has been utterly dominant since moving out of the bullpen, allowing no more than two runs in any of his seven starts this year. With injuries curtailing the production of many of their other starters this year, King’s emergence has been a huge positive sign to end a disappointing season.

That the Reds even have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs this late in the season has to be seen as a huge success after tearing everything down last year. And while Elly De La Cruz has really struggled with prolonged exposure to big league pitching, Cincinnati has plenty of other youngsters who are making an impact and who should form the core of a potent roster for years to come. The Reds have games against the Guardians and Cardinals this week and need a lot of help elsewhere in the standings to make things interesting for the Cubs and Marlins.

The Royals are ending the season on an incredibly high note; they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games, including five of six from the Astros, and thanks to late-season breakouts from Cole Ragans and Nelson Velázquez, they can head into next year with some hope for the future. Bobby Witt Jr. proved he was the core piece they could build around this year; all of a sudden, there’s some forward momentum for an organization that’s been stuck in reverse for too long.

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