FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: April 25, 2026
A question popped into my head as I edited Ryan Blake’s column on the Nationals Friday morning. In the piece, shortly after noting that James Wood ranked third in the majors with a 170 wRC+, Ryan mentioned that Wood’s teammate, CJ Abrams, was sixth with a mark of 168. Upon reading this, I pulled up our leaderboards to see if the Nationals were the only team to have two players in the top 10. Turns out that, yes, they are. I thought about that for all of two seconds before something else caught my eye. Just below Abrams on the list was Mike Trout, who also had a 168 wRC+. This prompted me to wonder: Can Trout return to form? Can he both stay healthy and produce this year?
I’m hardly the only one who spent the bulk of the 2020s dreaming on a fully healthy season from Trout, just as I’m not alone in having abandoned that hope as the injuries piled up. But after watching him blast home run after home run last week from the Yankee Stadium pressbox, I felt the pull of the past encroach upon the present, and perhaps against my better judgment, I started dreaming again. He sure looked as healthy as ever as his broad body barreled up baseballs and roamed center field. The best way to describe the way Trout moves — really, the way he has always moved — is that he lumbers and boulders; for all of his natural athleticism and breathtaking blend of speed and strength, he does not glide gracefully. I put that dream of a Trout renaissance on ice when the Angels left town, only for it to come back a week later. This time, though, I considered whether, at 34, he still has one more MVP season in him. He entered this weekend slashing .239/.417/.557 with eight home runs, and has posted 1.2 WAR in 25 games. He’s walking more than he’s striking out, and he’s already stolen four bases. His BABIP is a mere .228, 111 points below his career mark, so we should expect his batting average to see some positive regression. (Even if we know batting average isn’t all that indicative of player performance, it still matters for MVP voters.) His .483 xwOBA is second in the majors and 62 points above his wOBA. His defense has been below average so far, but if Trout keeps hitting like this, his glove won’t matter much for his MVP case. The narrative would certainly be in his favor.
I just answered two of my own questions from Friday in this mailbag, so I guess it’s time to get to yours. What if the Astros blow it all up? How might the Pirates benefit from a Houston fire sale? Why don’t teams develop bench players to be knuckleballers? What the heck was Austin Warren doing in the game with the bases loaded in the Mets’ 12th straight loss? We answer all these questions and more in this week’s mailbag. Plus, Jay Jaffe remembers Garret Anderson. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Guys who loom large in franchise history but have comparatively paltry WAR likely played for one of the earlier post-WWII, pre-1990s expansion teams. There’s just not as much competition but they don’t feel particularly “new” to older baseball fans so the “history” part feels relevant. Up until recently the Padres’ career home run leader was a guy named Nate Colbert (it’s now Machado). Salvador Perez will pass George Brett soon for the all-time leader for the Royals in HR. Tony Fernandez and Vernon Wells got a lot of hits for the Blue Jays.
The other type of player plays first base or other defensively limited / compromised types who were good enough to stick with the team long-term. Paul Konerko is like this—not to the same degree of Anderson because the White Sox have been around way longer than the Angels. But also the vast majority of us have no firsthand memory of Nellie Fox.
Vernon Wells was so good and he was fun to watch. Then signed his extension and promptly took a Segway feel off a cliff it made national news. He only had a single healthy productive season from the age of 28 on.
I had a soft spot for Vernon Wells because he shared my exact birthday (including year). He didn’t age well, but he was a legit All Star for several years.
The White Sox also have Frank Thomas as clearly the best hitter to have ever played for them, even though Konerko edges him in games played, PA, and hits. Thomas has nearly double the oRAR of any other White Sock and more than 4 times what Konerko did.
I think I see why you had this reaction. Let me clarify: I don’t think that the question implies that a player who is important to a team’s history is the best hitter. Mike Trout is definitely the best hitter in Angels history. I read it more as which players have an outsized place in team lore despite not really playing like a megastar. “Team lore” is a bit subjective but it sure feels like Konerko matches that, as do many of the other players that Jay mentions.
Best proxy for “team lore” is probably “is their number retired by the team”. That would be a pretty satisfying criteria to use, at least as a starting point.
That’s a great idea but I would use inducted into a team specific hall of fame. For many if not all teams retiring the number is a higher bar—Anderson is in the Angels Hall of Fame but the number wasn’t retired. Maybe it will be now.
But based on your criterion though we get decent hits on Paul Konerko, Michael Young, Ryan Zimmerman, and Frank White (Royals). Probably others too. I wouldn’t put Hall of Very Good types like Dale Murphy in this category though.
Fun fact for non Kansas City folks- frank white just got recalled from his role as Jackson county exec by voters…overwhelmingly. He was pretty hated last few years locally and had a well documented beef with the royals. Not a very well liked guy in town unfortunstely given his former sfatus
Right — for the Angels, I could see arguments for a Tim Salmon (consistency) or Nolan Ryan (legitimacy) standing next to Garrett Anderson and Trout in an LAA-Rushmore of sorts.
Chuck Finley erasure! 46 WAR, 165 wins, & 2151 K’s with the team, 4-time all-star, 6x 15-game winner, 3x with 200+ K’s. He would doubtlessly be on the Angels Mt. Rushmore.
“ The other type of player plays first base or other defensively limited / compromised types who were good enough to stick with the team long-term.”
I think this is the main category. Guys like Zimmerman are not well short of the JAWS standard because their skills didn’t translate to WAR, but rather just because they declined earlier and/or quicker than others did. The classic franchise legend who doesn’t crack 30 WAR will almost always be a bat-first or even a bat-only player, with more power and hit tool than OBP. Playing for a winner helps, too, especially for teams with fewer of those to remember. John Kruk in Philly is a clear example, Dante Bichette and Sean Casey would be two more.
Vernon Wells is a GREAT shout.
Markakis for the 21st century Oriole fits, too.
If Markakis stayed with the Orioles for his whole career he would be canonical example of this.
Justin Morneau obviously played next to Mauer, but he fits the profile
Late to the game, but Adam Dunn is a poster child of “lots of counting stats but a lot less career value” to me – nearly 500 HR, over 1000 R and RBI, but crazy negative defensive value and/or DH penalty left him at around 25 WAR for his career.
If the Pirates are looking to add they should keep an eye on outfielders and relievers. It’s kind of wild they gave away Bednar last year since he is exactly the sort of player they should be looking to trade for at the deadline, and Ozuna is a mess—they could really use an outfielder that would let Reynolds DH instead of playing the field.
Also I don’t think there are going to be a ton of unexpected teardowns this year because the Royals, Blue Jays, Astros, Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox are pot-committed. They might trade some players on expiring deals if things don’t get better but they will plan to be back next year. Even the Giants sort of fall into this category. It is hard to imagine how badly these guys would have to play in order to trade unexpected players. And the guys who could get traded if they heat up is minimal due to no trade clauses (like Bo Bichette).
I won’t re-litigate the unforced error that was the Bednar trade again. But I will say that when Jared Jones returns, this issue could take care of itself, by shifting Mlodzinski to the bullpen and keeping Dotel up for a look.
Agree on getting an OF, though I’m not sure where they’d find one. Maybe a buy low on one of Boston’s?
RIP Garrett. Not an Angels fan or one of the low walk mid range power archetype, but followed his career arc closer because he was my MLB twin.
Looking at his low OBP, I recall the most fascinating thing about his career totals is he was only hit by 8 pitches in over 9000 PA.
Should have been a career Dodger not Angel with that unique skill.
There’s another mailbag question there- who else belongs on this elusive batsmen list?
The one other player I remember is Ruben Sierra.
Took me a minute to catch the joke. Started wondering if there is some factoid I didn’t know about HBPs in Chavez Ravine…
Dodger. Got it.
Pitches, trolleys, it’s all the same…
Kent Hrbek of the Twins. His number is retired due to his contributions to the 87 and 91 world champs. He was considered the top Minnesota born player to play for the Twins before Joe Mauer took over that spot, probably forever.
Good call there. Anderson has the fewest HBP of any player with over 9000 PA (next is Luke Appling with 11). Dropping it to 8000, Sierra and Jose Cruz are tied with 7. Cruz has more PA so he takes the prize I guess.
Amazingly, Jose Cruz Jr. had only 5 HBP in 5448 PA. Guess self-preservation is hereditary. (At 5000 the ratio king is Sandy Alomar Sr. with 3 HBP in 5160 PA. Sandy Jr. and Roberto wore a few in their time, with 41 and 50 respectively.)
The man who sprung to mind for plantwrench’s question was Juan Gonzalez, who comfortably leads the Rangers in HR (372 to Rafael Palmeiro’s 321) and RBIs (1180-1039 over Palmeiro) while having 30.3 fWAR for the team. A very good total, but not the Hall of Famer I thought he was when he was winning two MVPs by the “most RBIs on a playoff team” rule. Another guy who walked very little while putting up bad defensive numbers in the corner outfield.
Rangers history is filled with stars who looked great but who could not field their position. Michael Young, Juan Gonzalez, and Ruben Sierra may have gotten headlines but the best position players in franchise history are definitely defensive wizards Ivan Rodriguez and Adrian Beltre.
The next two guys I was going to name were Sierra and Dean Palmer and then I was like “wait… do I just have a fixation on the 1992 Rangers?”
BTW, I did a search a while back for the WAR leaders on each team whose last name started with the same letter as the team nickname. The Rangers are the only team to have this happen for their all-time position player AND pitcher leader, Pudge Rodriguez and Kenny Rogers.
(This was inspired by Szymborski’s Mariners preview where the graphic had a couple players’ names with the M trident.)
That home ballpark back then was also Coors lite in terms of offense. Coors was starting to get park effect corrections, but other parks were not. With that and voters not having access to good defensive data other than vibes and Gold Glove votes, it’s not surprising that a guy like Gonzalez has two of the least well-deserved MVP awards.
Trout’s on pace to walk 174 times this season. I don’t expect him to keep that pace, but that would be the highest non-Bonds total in history.
Amazingly he would be second to Kurtz if we prorate it out. Per the games played % page Kurtz would have 174 and Trout would have 168.
Here are some other fun “on pace to” projections that would shatter previous records going back to 1901:
Doubles: Taylor Ward (previous record was Earl Webb at 67)
Kyle Schwarber: 249 strikeouts (previous record was Mark Reynolds at 223)
Victor Caratini: 25 sacrifice flies (previous was Eddie Murray at 19)
Bonus Category: Ivan Herrera *and* JJ Wetherholt: 39 hit-by-pitches—highest since 1971. Ron Hunt got hit 50 times that year…the next highest since 1901 was Don Baylor at 35.
April on-pace projections are always fun, agreed. I didn’t realize Trout missed a game nor that Kurtz was actually matching him beat for beat.
Smoky Joe Wood noted, but no mention of possibly the best mlb nickname ever?
Al Hrabosky— the Mad Hungarian!
C’mon, anyone over 60 can’t forget this guy. He stomp around the mound like a rhino trying to put out a fire.
Otherwise, thanks again for the usual great work!
Correa dosn’t cost $30 million a year. Twins are picking up $10 million/year. $20 million is still a lot for the Pirates, but it’s not $30 million.
And maybe they could hook the Astros for a further $5-10MM mil/year depending on what they trade, so his untradeable $30MM/year salary is down to a much more sensible $10-15MM/year commitment for the Pirates.
I do not think Anderson and Zimmerman are comparable in this sense. Zimm, not Zim, was on a hall of fame trajectory through 2013 then injuries took the talent away. He then stayed around a bit long because he was beloved like McCutchen in Pittsburg, or Miggy in Detroit. Zimm had more than 36 War at age 28, but got about 3 more WAR the next 8 seasons combined. On the other hand, Anderson was an anti-moneyball type player his whole career. He was overrated by being good at overrated things like RBIs and tons of singles. Not the same!
I agree that Zimm’s closer to the Longoria category…but I will shout out Anderson’s RE24 eclipsing his wRAA by 67 runs.
I don’t take betting odds as gospel but your reds and pirates odds are both shockingly low. If people actually believe those numbers then they should make one of the better bets you will ever see by betting the “no playoffs” market on FanDuel (shop around ofc) for Pitt (-164) and Cincy (-122). You won’t find discrepancies that large very often between the market snd fangraphs.. I realize there have been two days of gsmes since this was posted but still. Also 3 games increase in wins from Correa and a decent reliever is honestly more fhan I expected snd if I was a pirates fan I would be rooting for them to open up the checkbook even if it isnt a long term win if shouldn’t cost much in prospects of they spend snd bite some of the cost. I
If Griffin starts to hit the vibes will be great in Pitt for a playoff race. As a royals fan i hope they enjoy some relevance because for some of our orgs it’s pretty effin rare. It’s not often you can fix a hole that simply
This “mailbag” is becoming a long-form collection of articles. As such, I think it should be organized with scannable titles instead of only by short paragraphs of italics text surrounded by long paragraphs of non-italics text
Minor nitpick, but Trout is the Angels leader in runs scored, 1224 to Anderson’s 1024.
Yeah but those are present-day runs compared to circa-2000 runs, you have to factor in inflation and get a net present value. Trout has only scored 897 year-2000 runs after accounting for all that /s