FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: August 15, 2026
I made my first trip to Oracle Park earlier this week to catch the final two games of a three-game set between the Giants and Astros. I was in San Francisco reporting a different story, but I was eager talk about Yordan Alvarez with his teammates, his opponents, and pretty much anybody else who was interested. I’ve long compared him to Willie McCovey because of his overwhelming physical stature and profile at the plate — it helps that Alvarez, like McCovey, also bats left-handed and wears no. 44 — and I considered myself fortunate to get to see the Astros DH play in San Francisco. I hoped I’d get to witness him launch one into McCovey Cove. That didn’t happen, but it was still fun to watch him during what’s turning into a career year.
One of the players I talked to about Alvarez was Houston outfielder Taylor Trammell. His response, to a question about what makes Alvarez so good, is worth sharing. “He is the most efficient player I’ve ever seen,” Trammell said. “He does exactly what he needs to do to get himself ready to play well, and then does nothing more. His preparation seems so effortless because he has so much confidence in his routine. He’s shrunken it all into a box.” Trammell also bats left-handed, yet he said he can’t study Alvarez to figure out what to do in the box because “pitchers throw differently to him. They throw him the pitches they don’t throw to anyone else just to try something to get him out.” He said Alvarez sees changeups from pitchers that he didn’t even know had changeups, and while that might’ve been a slight exaggeration, it worked to explain the helplessness that opposing pitchers must feel when Alvarez is in the box.
That’s the last we’ll discuss Alvarez here today, but if you want to read more about his MVP-worthy season, I’d encourage you to check out Dan Szymborski’s post from Monday breaking down Alvarez’s odds of winning the American League Triple Crown. Instead, in this week’s mailbag, we’re answering your questions about a pair of Cardinals pitchers who are greatly outperforming their peripherals, whether strong plate discipline translates to successful ABS challenges, the final franchise to (maybe) register a 100-loss season, and more. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Its surprising to see Maddux at the top of the pitchers-vs-unique-hitters list since he spent his entire career in the NL. I would have guessed a mid career league switcher would be at the top.
(I clicked on Jamie Moyer’s player link and apparently he is still listed as a Blue Jay. He’s making a comeback!)
I agree.
Forced to guess I think I would have guessed Randy Johnson- Pitched a ton of innings, was fairly recent, most of his career was after the advent of interleague play. & he bounced around a bunch playing 12 years in both the NL & the AL.
Of course, he had 900 less innings than Maddux which is I’m sure what made the difference.
I’m surprised Clemens is so low. Less than 100 innings behind Maddux but way behind in batters faced. Must be 21 of 24 years in the AL East.
Yeah, xERA has some trouble estimating the success rates of ground balls. For most pitchers it’s irrelevant, but did a bad job with guys like Framber Valdez.
I’m of the mind that if you want to know how a pitcher did you can usually find it using whichever of FIP-, ERA-, and xERA agree. Each of them has their flaws, but if two of them agree you have a pretty good sense of what is defense and what is hard contact.
I have a soft spot for SIERA as a FIP-variant too but I was convinced that for a lot of cases the added complexity makes it not as great for casual baseball communication. But what I like about it is that it estimates broadly what is likely to happen with the increased emphasis on ground ball rate and strikeout rate. Partly why I like that is because for *future* performance K rate matters a whole lot, since there’s a big reduction in the share of outcomes that is hard to model. But you’re probably best off with a more sophisticated projection there anyway.
xFIP is fundamentally superior to FIP because it takes out home run luck in a similar fashion to what FIP does with batted ball luck, but I agree with you that SIERA is the best.
Veterancy
In the answer to the 1st question, something was brought up that I’ve been trying to understand, but unsuccessfully, even after asking about it, for a long time.
Why would the Statcast numbers displayed on Fangraphs and BaseballSavant (ie xERA and hard hit rates) be different?
Where you found a tendency for the truly awful hitters to outperform on ABS challenges, I have one word for you: Cal Raleigh.
More seriously, since teams tolerate worse offensive performance from Catchers– especially backup catchers (and catchers who hit 60 HRs the previous season!)–I would bet that the bottom decile of hitters this year is catcher heavy.
Since catchers literally obsess over the strike zone as part of that difficult defensive job which requires teams to put up with their lack of offense, I think that’s why you’re seeing better ABS challenge success from the worst hitters.