FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: February 14, 2026
Happy Valentine’s Day, everyone, and welcome to the first mailbag of spring training. It’s fitting that this annual day of love coincides with the return of baseball, because all of us are madly in love with this sport. If you weren’t, you wouldn’t be spending part of your Saturday reading a Members-only mailbag on a website dedicated exclusively to covering our game. Really, baseball is the game of love. Our fandom begins as passionate affair, and then like any lasting relationship, it requires daily commitment, growing stronger over time. It rewards patience, hard work, and finding joy in both the mundane and the extraordinary. It isn’t always easy, but it’s always worth it. How can you not be romantic about baseball?
Speaking of love, nobody I know loves college baseball like Michael Baumann. With Friday marking the start of the college season, he previewed the action to come in two pieces. First, he ran through the seven college teams you need to know in 2026, and then went deep on what he dubbed, “The Ridiculous Firewagon Offenses of College Baseball.” The opening of spring camps also means it’s Prospect Week here at FanGraphs. If you missed any of our coverage, you can find Eric Longenhagen’s audit of our 2019 Top 100 list, David Laurila’s interviews with Cardinals assistant GM Rob Cerfolio and Padres assistant director of player development Mike Daly about their respective farm systems, Brendan Gawlowski’s reflections on what he learned from his worst scouting report during his time as a Pirates pro scout, and Eric’s updated 2026 draft rankings. Early next week, we’ll have our Top 100 Prospects list, as well as those from both ZiPS and OOPSY, along with fantasy rankings and plenty of other prospect coverage. So be sure to come back to the site to check it all out.
That’s the last you’ll read about love and Prospect Week in this week’s mailbag. Instead, we’ll be answering your questions about the cost of 1.0 WAR, the legality of a dog playing first base, the number of balls players hit in their careers, and whether a full team of free agents could beat the Rockies. Before we do, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
IMO, it’s not just restricted supply of top-end players that makes the WAR/dollar curve nonlinear, it’s that roster spots and playing time are also limited resources. You can’t get 40 WAR by signing forty one-win free agents. Unless you’re Dan trying to beat the Rockies.
Yup, you can’t replace one 6 WAR guy with four 1.5 WAR guys.
Sox brass mookie trade era: “hold my beer”
You can only play nine position players at a time, and only one pitcher. I sometimes think that people who laud these one-star-for-four-role-players trades are missing that.
This isn’t entirely a Rays and Rays-alumnus level problem, but it is something that is a big issue with their approach.
(not Friedman, obviously)
Let’s say the Rays have two options with Isaac Paredes:
1) Move him to primarily being a 1B so you can give the job to Junior Caminero. In that case, he’s probably a 3-win guy at about 130 wRC+ intead of a 4 win guy.
2) Trade him for a couple prospects and a projected 1.5 win guy (obviously that part didn’t pan out, but that’s what they were thinking)
Obviously the Rays picked option #2. And it’s great that they can find role players for cheap, but when you trade away a guy with a 130 wRC+ for you like Isaac Paredes and you replace him with a 1.5 win guy, you have to replace one of your other 1.5 win guys with a 3-win guy or you’re moving backwards.
The Rays are not moving backwards if one of the prospects turn into another Caminero. That’s not easy to do but what other option do they have with their payroll.
In theory you could if all the other players in your lineup are replacement level?
That was the secret to to the Pirates’ offseason!
But yeah, that works in theory if you’re starting from scratch–but then your team is also very bad.