FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: July 26, 2025
This time next week, trade season will be over. We’ll know if the surging Brewers added another bat, if the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers did enough to address their injury-depleted pitching staffs, and which uniform Eugenio Suárez will be wearing the rest of the season. We’ll also hopefully have a better idea of where teams stand as we enter the dog days of August and look ahead to the September pennant chases.
For many teams, the games between now and Thursday’s deadline will carry the weight of the next two months, as their performance over that stretch will shape their strategy for the rest of the season. All of this makes for a most exciting week ahead of us. As always, we’ll be covering the chaos here at FanGraphs, analyzing trades big and small for our readers.
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Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
As a lifelong Cleveland baseball I did not expect to see them mentioned so much in the integration answer. Cleveland (rightfully) celebrates Doby every year. Though Jay mentions their reluctance to carry a 3rd black player initially, I didn’t realize how quickly it still seems they signed more black players compared to other integrated teams.
Bill Veeck was a good guy.
How is the star value of fielding plays calculated? Is it only based on where the ball is hit and how hard, while assuming a standard defensive alignment? Or does it also include the distance the fielder has to go to get the ball?
If fielder distance is included, then fielders do have some impact on the star value of the play because good positioning will reduce the star value. A CF who properly shades a hitter towards left center, for example, won’t have to run as far to get a liner in the gap. This could also be influenced by the guys playing the corners. If the LF is a plodder but the RF can run, the CF is going to shade just about everybody towards left center.
This leads to other reasons that defensive metrics often don’t pass the eye test. An outfielder who positions himself well, gets a good jump, takes good routes, and runs well might make fewer highlight reel catches because he is making those catches look routine. A guy who is camped out under a ball in the gap is going to get less credit from most fans than the guy who makes a diving catch of the same ball, but the metrics might count it the same.
I’m pretty sure it’s pretty scripted and uniform. All the outfielders look at cards now for every single batter.
I have always considered of 1951 as the start of “integration” when talking about judging historical competition. It certainly it didn’t start in 1951 and wasn’t done in 1951 but by 1951 a meaningful number (probably most) of the very best black ball players were in MLB and not the negro leagues, which were basically dead by the end of that year. That’s not the end of the story because teams weren’t clamoring to sign projected utility infielders until later but if you want to look at when baseball started to resemble the modern game in terms of competition level I think 1951 is the first year you can say that.
This is also why I don’t think we can really call years before 1951 as contributing to “the best” debates. Babe Ruth was awesome and as far as I can tell was far more open minded and supportive of negro league players than his peers so you can’t blame him for not playing against them, but you can’t take his wRC+ seriously in the same way you take Hank Aaron’s or Al Kaline’s. If Hank Aaron played in the 1950s, even accounting for better training, it’s not at all clear he is better than Hank Bauer or Roger Maris, much less Hank Aaron or Al Kaline. Whereas Hank Aaron and Al Kaline would still be among the very best right fielders of all time if they debuted in 2005 (accounting for training differences).
Sorry, *if Babe Ruth played in the 1950s*, not “Hank Aaron”.
I assume you mean if Babe Ruth played in the 1950s?
This made me think about Ted Williams, who famously had a monster 10-WAR campaign at age 38 in 1957. His peak obviously occurred before integration, but looking it up, he still managed to compile an astounding 7.4 rWAR/162 (using this to account for his Korean War service) in the 10 years from 1951 until his retirement in 1960.
Yeah, that was an error on my part, looks like we caught it at the same time.
Ted Williams was pretty amazing, he and Stan Musial clearly were able to adapt considerably. Nobody else was able to do that. Maybe Babe Ruth would have, but unless we have actual evidence of it I don’t think we can make that assumption. Grover Alexander was one of the top pitchers of the 1920s and he struck out something like 2.5 innings per 9. By the late 1950s you had guys like Don Drysdale and Harvey Haddix more than doubling that, and by the 1960s you had black pitchers like Fergie Jenkins and Bob Gibson who were part of the wave of such dominant pitchers that they had to change the mound.
The other part of it is that huge numbers of hitters were not even trying to hit home runs in the 1920s. When you’re norming wRC+ to league environment it is supposed to account for league wide trends like the ball construction but it also sweeps up eras where there weren’t that many good hitters and hides it. The string of awards that black position players won after integration helps show how good the best players in the negro leagues were. His wRC+ wouldn’t have been so high if Oscar Charleston, Turkey Stearnes, and others were in MLB.
I think bat weights tell some portion of the story. Ted Williams used a bat similar in weight to what is used now, while Babe Ruth used extremely heavy bats (especially in his prime). I don’t think you can get away with such heavy bats unless pitchers on average are throwing considerable slower (and are more predictable with less offspeed options to boot). Maybe Ruth would have adapted and used a lighter bat if necessary, but he did often lead the league in strikeouts, so I think that may have kept him from dominating in an era with faster fastballs and a wider variety of offspeed pitches.
In 1951 94% of the league was white, now it’s 60-65%. Bottomed in 2004 at 60.3%. Maybe uneven distribution of talent as you’ve described changes things a bit but probably not by much and having a solid baseline of competent players is probably more relevant to deciding star value vs a small increase in stars than you seem to think. Modern game really only dates back to 90s with explosion of international talent, though African American % has cratered from mid 70s to early 90s peak of 18% to 7%.
Apparently this is in some part due to teams carrying more pitchers vs hitters and especially outfielders, who are disproportionately African American (African Americans peaked at 6% of pitchers and now are 2-3%, but for about 25 years made up a higher % of outfielders than white players).
Looking at WAR white players compiled 87% of WAR in 1951 and 55-60% in recent years. So even taking 50s and 60s stats at face value seems unfair to modern players, though there could be other factors than bias the level of talent in favor of that era that have been underexplored (ie less competition for top athletes from other sports, more kids in sports and athletics in general).
The Padres and other teams that are looking for a corner outfielder this year to plug a gap are lucky because the White Sox, D-Backs, and Orioles have you covered. Between Laureano, Tauchman, Slater, Gurriel, Grichuk, and Mullins (who might be a better fit in LF now) there are several outfielders for teams that are going nowhere that should plug holes seasons and won’t command a huge return. Some of these guys are platoon only but they’re all likely to be functional.
And if you’re looking for guys who have more team control, Alex Call and Jesus Sanchez could be available for the right price (although I am not sure I would do that unless I was a team like the Royals).
Don’t look now but the Yankees have a void in RF.Timetabke to return to batting hasn’t been announced yet but on his return he will be DH only for the rest of the season. They need some serious reinforcement if they are to stay in it if Judge is out for a significant period. Stanton so far has a good batting line but when Judge returns will they try him in the OF?
Edit it looks like some are reporting 10 days.
They said they’re going to try and get Stanton some time in the outfield when Judge returns. Would be really great if it works, but there is a reason he hasn’t played the field regularly in a year and a half.
Personally I would just play Bellinger in RF full time, Grisham in CF, and Dominguez in LF but if they want a right handed hitting complement and backup Slater and Grichuk would fit the bill perfectly and cost a lot less than Gurriel and Laureano (probably?).
Trent Grisham is having a good season that’s flying under the radar, his splits are pretty pronounced this season though. Dominguez’s are similarly pronounced. Grichuk would make a lot sense.
Grichuk off the table. Slater would make a lot of sense. Or Gurriel except I would guess there will be more interest in him.
Right now, I think with 3B improved, the Yanks need to save whatever resources they have to acquire pitching — worst ERA in the league in July. I, for one, am very tired of the Stroman high-wire act.
I remember a story about Don Hoak causing a rule about retouching the base after a foul ball. It was said that Hoak on second after a foul ball would go to a step away from third intead of returning to second. When challenged he responded that he was taking his lead off second.
Jay, thanks so much for answering my question so thoroughly and thoughtfully. After considering, I think I’m going with 1947 and 1962 as the important cutoffs. The 162-game schedule, full integration, and expansion to a fully “national” sport (multiple California teams, plus Texas and Minnesota) feels like the right spot for what I was thinking about.
Google Pumpsie Green, Gene Conley and Israel flight.