FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: June 7, 2025
Happy Saturday, everyone, and welcome to the first edition of the FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag! We’ve got a lot to cover today, including how to fix the Braves, how the Orioles might fare if they sell at the deadline, the most fun plays to lead off games, and so much more.
But before we get there, I’d like to remind all of you that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for next week’s mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
OK, that’s enough housekeeping. Let’s get to the first question, which comes to us from one of our international readers!
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Are the Z-con %s currently listed 100 – Z-Con%?
I.e. MLB avg Z-con is 82.4% which is why that table lists 17.6 as MLB avg?
Indeed – we’ve updated!
I have been in a bee delay at Dodger Stadium. NOT fun for us IN the delay. I do want to acknowledge that LAD reseated us anywhere available.
Same but at Petco.
It wasn’t to start off the ballgame, but Ben came close to getting his wish (and arguably better) when Mauricio Dubon through out the first (Angel Martinez) and third (Ramirez) batters trying to extend singles in the bottom of the first inning in yesterday’s Twins-Guardians game. There was so much other defense that this game has 5 Things written all over it.
*Astros. No idea where I pulled Twins from.
MN baseball is irrisistable baby
To revive a long-dead McC gag: considering how badly SF needs a competent bat at first, this is irrefutable evidence of Szymborski’s virulent anti-Giants bias.
Giants (and many other teams) should be wary of O’Hearn, he has gotten super lucky hitting his homers exactly where they need to go. Not a single no-doubter this year via Statcast, he would have only 3 or 4 homers if he played all his games at SFG. There are some stadiums where O’Hearn would work a lot better (CIN, MIL, LAD, although LAD really does not need him).
Giants should try and get Bryan Reynolds back from Pittsburgh, he’s gotten super unlucky and the xHR predictions say he would do better in SFG than in PIT. Could just have him and Ramos split time between LF and DH and let Wilmer Flores play first base full time, maybe give Yaz the Younger a day off against tough lefties.
Interesting about all the wall-scrapers, and obviously not going to argue that getting anyone better than O’Hearn is better than getting O’Hearn. But as much as I love Wilmer on a vibes level, he’s been a butcher with a mitt his entire tenure, so getting another OFer isn’t quite the answer either.
Really? I thought Wilmer was fine at first base and bad everywhere else.
Talk about a guy whose career turned out different than anyone expected. 12.7 fWAR despite almost never being a full time player for a whole season (2022 and 2015 were the closest). Something like a 12 or 13 year career, but between the injuries and the questionable defense he’s never been “the guy”.
Long term the future is Eldridge anyway. There’s someone who shouldn’t have problems with “doubters.”
Trading Reynolds would require a monster salary dump that I’m not sure even Nutting could stomach. It’d make the Liriano trade look like… OK I don’t know what the opposite of an ill-advised salary dump is. Shields for Tatis Jr?
[I have deleted a digression on the best Pirates players whose last name starts with each letter of the alphabet, but I will post it if anyone gives me the slightest encouragement.]
As long as Jones being down for the count leaves John Jaso in his justly earned place of honor.
[Do it.]
I knew I could count on yinz! And if I hadn’t got the slightest encouragement I would’ve done it anyway, out of spite.
Disclaimer: these separate pitching and hitting WAR. I think Mel Queen’s total hitting and pitching WAR are negative but I don’t care. Also they are based on a manual sorted search I did ~2021 and I may have messed up and also the WAR formula may have had some tweaks since then.
I checked in before in the halcyon days of 2022, when Jose Quintana deposed Mel Queen with a sudden 2.0 WAR, Duane Underwood Jr. put U on the board as the first U Pirate above replacement, and Andrew McCutchen was about to return to pad his lead among Ms, and several exciting up-and-comers looked like they might be about the bust the leaderboards.
Well… Bryan Reynolds only needs 8 WAR to best Claude Ritchey at 24.9 (Rick Rhoden next at 24.1. Being signed through 2030, he seemed like a dead lock to do it if he didn’t get traded, and… I still think he’s more likely than not to scrape together 8 WAR, but it doesn’t look so certain.
The H leader is Richie Hebner with 24.7 WAR. Ke’Bryan Hayes needs 14.1 WAR to match that, and being signed through 2029, he seemed like a good bet to get that if he could just manage an 80 wRC+, stay a bit healthy, and keep up his stellar defense. He has kept up his stellar defense.
The leading J is Garrett Jones with 5.0 WAR, which is absolutely pathetic for such a common name. Earlyish last year it seemed like Jared Jones would bust through that in like two and a half seasons. Now it’s not obvious that he’ll pitch two and a half seasons. Termarr Johnson might happen but also might not.
Other letters: Y is very reachable (Kevin Young 8.3) but Miguel Yajure is been and gone and Nick Yorke does not seem like he’s gonna make it. I’m still on the “Henry Davis might turn out OK” train but hard to see him getting the 20.4 WAR he needs to catch Doug Drabek. O is a very solid Al Oliver with 27.3 so never much hope for Johann Oviedo (or the since-traded Luis Ortiz). S and C are Stargell and Clemente, so don’t think about Skenes or Cruz or Chandler. N is reachable with Denny Neagle at 9.4 but they haven’t had a real N prospect since Kevin Newman. Brian Giles is at 28.8 and I don’t think it’s too much to ask for Konnor Griffin to sign the Jackson Chourio contract and then produce like Jackson Merrill. Please?
At least the Pirates have my own letter on lock with Honus Wagner and Paul Waner.
Even 2023/2024 O’Hearn would be a massive upgrade over current Wade. We’ll see how Dom Smith does until the deadline though.
I’d be shocked if PIT dealt Reynolds.
Nice effort on the initial mailbag. Respectfully, what’s needed–given that chat columnists very often limit their sessions due to other commitments–is a fantasy-specific, tactical/transactional mailbag. Especially approaching the mid-point of the season and league trade deadlines. Many thanks!
I think the format you’ve requested already dominates fantasy website chats and writer/user interactions in general. It quickly gets old seeing a writer just answer very specific transactional questions that only relate to the guy asking. I think what fangraphs is doing here is more entertaining and more useful for a wider audience.
This is fun. I especially like reading the FG writers in conversation with one another when responding (like a virtual panel on the page, which is deeply satisfying)
Yeah the whole thing was great but that part in particular was phenomenal. Please give us more of the panel, make sure Davy and Kiri are on it please.
Great Saturday read
Hooray for Saturday content!! Thanks to all those who contributed.
The triple or inside-the-park homer or getting thrown out while trying for one is probably the most exciting set of plays in baseball no matter when they happen.
But in terms of something that is way more exciting at the very beginning of the game than later, I’m going with Jake’s three pitch strikeout. Really raises the tension, makes you glued to everything that happens next.
The Braves issues are the same as it always was, that left field and shortstop are black holes. This team has gotten really lucky with scrap heap pickups in the outfield and at shortstop and that sort of gamble works better when the rest of the team is clicking. Michael Harris will hit better than this, but not having stable options at those two positions means that they’re relying on Michael Harris more!
I guess you can add in second base on the team’s wish list because Albies is really struggling, but there aren’t a lot of options there. Maybe they could try to buy low on Semien (unless he has a no-trade). Or at shortstop unless Kim is healthy and the Rays are willing to move him, or the Giants are willing to sell low on Adames.
I do think Nick Allen’s defense and the presence of Verdugo (who I think will hit better than he has so far) makes it all less of a problem. In 2026 you have Profar as well (although who knows what will happen after he’s been caught for PEDs). I wouldn’t be surprised if they go for a right handed hitting outfielder to platoon with Verdugo this year thanks to Profar being ineligible for the postseason. Would be funny if they brought back Soler or Laureano, maybe they could roll the dice on Jo Adell. The ideal trade target is someone like Lourdes Gurriel or Austin Hays or Taylor Ward but the price on them might be too high for them for various reasons.
Verdugo is all floor but they would probably want someone better than him. We’ve been waiting for him to hit better than he has so far for about a year now, since his time with the Yankees where we all assumed he had something left (it never appeared)
this was awesome!
i’d love to see an option to add league avgs for stats in the player profile and leaderboards.
If we’re talking stats page suggestions–would it be possible to make the team batting leaderboards (the ones you get when clicking the team names in “Standings”) default to a minimum 1 PA? The page is always full of pitchers with no batting lines before the below-replacement guys. Maybe many team pages don’t have that many below-replacement guys, but the page I’m usually checking is the Pirates.
It’d also be great if links to the team pages from player pages were brought back. I had assumed this was unintentionally lost when player pages were redone but maybe not now.
This is the first FG piece/chat I’ve seen that implied at all that Baltimore could get anything for their guys like Mountcastle (who is hurt and thus now likely not going to be traded) or O’Hearn. It’s usually some BAL fan asking in a chat and the FG writer sending them back to earth because “they’re not as valuable as you think”
O’Hearn is running a 162 wRC+ with statcast numbers that help to back up his higher BABIP. I have some real concerns about how the power will play in other stadiums, he hasn’t hit a no-doubter all year and basically his expected homers in most other stadiums are half of what he has or less. If he played all his games in KC his expected homers would be one (!!!), and the Cardinals, Tigers, Twins, and probably a dozen other teams should stay away from him. But there should be enough teams who need a bat who will be interested in him, his bat would play well for the Reds or Brewers in particular (among other teams that would not be so interested like the Angels or Dodgers).
He is likely to be traded because Baltimore’s preference is to get lots of developmental projects back rather than one higher end prospect, and that aligns pretty well with the fact that his power doesn’t play well in a bunch of stadiums. I would expect at least one FV40+, FV40, and FV35+ prospect to go back to Baltimore, probably all pitchers, with a fourth prospect’s grade (in that same range of prospect grades) depending on how many teams are bidding.
Mountcastle has no value though, I would not be surprised if he got non-tendered this offseason. The Orioles very well might trade him just to be rid of his salary for the rest of the year, and I was a team with a short left field I would consider it since he would probably be traded for cash.
LOVE THE MAILBAG!
Ten-pitch strikeout, where all 3 K’s were brilliant, dominating pitches, but the catcher can’t get the handle on the wicked spike change up thrown for strike three. Runner takes off, Catcher retrieves the ball and throws it into right field. Unfortunately, a swarm of bees descends blocking the right fielder from getting to the ball right away. K’ed player sprints around the bases to score in a super close play at the plate. (Did I satisfy everyone?)
Wouldn’t the Orioles be likely to get a better return from offering Mullins the qualifying offer than they would from trading him? I can’t see them offering the QO to O’Hearn, so he would be more likely to move.
😲Clay Stephenson has some stats, wow.
very cool – loved the detail re: 20-80 scale. thanks so much!