FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: May 23, 2026
It’s hard to know what to expect from a pitcher returning from a serious injury. In addition to velocity and spin rate, pitching is also about rhythm and feel, and that can take time to come back after a long layoff. But there was little rust for Gerrit Cole to shake off when he made his season debut Friday night at Yankee Stadium. In his first major league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery on March 11, 2025, Cole silenced the first-place Rays, allowing just two hits and three walks while striking out two across six scoreless innings. His only real trouble came in the first inning, when he gave up a leadoff single to Chandler Simpson and walked Junior Caminero to put two on with nobody out. After a Jonathan Aranda fly out, Cole picked the speedy Simpson off second base and then struck out Yandy Díaz looking at an inside fastball to end the inning. From there, he got in a groove. He averaged 96.1 mph with his four-seamer, and he threw 50 of his 72 pitches for strikes.
Cole left the game with the lead, but the Rays scored four runs in the top of the eighth inning to take the first game of the series, 4-2. They now lead the Yankees in the AL East by 5.5 games. Watching the Rays play Friday night, I couldn’t help but think about how annoying they would be to play against. They pitch well, put the ball in play, and are aggressive on the bases. One Yankee told me before the game that they remind him of last year’s Blue Jays because of their pesky bottom of the lineup and refusal to strike out. I’m still not sure how good the Rays are, but I get the feeling that they are always going to be better than I think.
In this week’s mailbag, we discuss another surprising team over the first two months of the season. We’ll also answer your questions about how many players in baseball have the ability to win MVP, how good Randy Johnson and other all-time-great starting pitchers would’ve been as closers, and why the 9-9-9 challenge beers are so small. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
The Cardinals have too many catching options in the near future. They should try to use that catching depth whether in win no or look forward mode by the deadline to get more pitching depth or some outfield depth.
The Cards and Rays feel like such a great match on paper. The Cards could trade Crooks to the Rays for someone lien Gary Gill Hill. Rays get a C they could likely start and improve their lineup and the Cards get more SP depth to help in the future.
I am real skeptical of Crooks right now. He is almost certainly a better hitter and fielder than what he showed in his cup of coffee but the fielding metrics were so bad there is a decent chance it it is directionally correct and he is striking out an unacceptable amount at AAA right now.
It feels like a trade for a post-prospect pitcher would be fair though, someone who might have been rushed and could use a new voice helping them out. Caden Dana and Hunter Barco stand out to me as players who could still be decent 2-win starters with the right pitching coach and some patience.
Eric seems pretty confident in Crooks defense and has him as a 70. I’ll trust Eric’s take on Crooks defense more than a small sample. I expected Crooks to be more doubles power than HR power, but he seems to be hitting the ball harder and lifting it a little bit more this year and I would be surprised for him to have multiple 15-20 HR seasons. Crooks really had some swing and miss at the beginning of the season but after the initial couldn weeks he has been making better swing decisions and whiffing much less.
I’m leaning heavily on Eric’s defense grade, but I would see Crooks moving up higher in the 50 FV tier and being close to a 55. His defense would give him a high floor and he seems like a guy who may be inconsistent at the plate with some above average stretched mixed in with some bad stretches to make him a league average or slightly below average. A 70 grade defense at C is very valuable.
I think Crooks would be an immediate improvement over Feduccia / Cortes.
Crooks is still a lot closer to the Big Leagues that their two other highly ranked catching prospects. If the Cardinals think they may want to upgrade over Pagés as the primary catcher in the near future, they need to hold on to Crooks at least until they decide whether or not to make that switch.
Bernal and Rodriguez are close enough they both may play in the bigs in 27 and be valuable starters in 28. That lines up with the Cards vision as Bloom has been very vocal they want to keep focus on improving to build a solid foundation for the future instead of focusing on winning this year. Crooks is trending up for me but the Cards need to move pieces around to improve the roster construction rather than being overloaded with C. They already are splitting Bernal and Crooks between C and 1B at AAA and they both lose a lot of value add to the team if they can’t play C. Trade from a strength to improve the future rotation, OF, or even 3B.